本文結合動態財務分析（Dynamic Financial Analysis, DFA）與演化策略演算法(Evolution Strategy, ES)找尋產險公司最佳的投資比率。本文模擬產險公司的25年的營運情形，將各資產價格變化以隨機模型建構的概念帶入，加入損失分配並考慮多重期間的資產配置比率重分配(re-allocation)等條件，在建立目標方程式後，運用演化策略演算法求得最佳的資產配置比率。 / In the research, the tools we take are the dynamic financial analysis( DFA ) system and the evolution strategy algorithm( ES ), which can be used to find the best investment ratio for insurance companies. The whole content of this article demonstrates the condition of property-casualty insurance companies in the 25 years. It takes place of the change of prices in every item of the asset by some kind of stochastic models, then, takes notice of the distribution of loss and re-allocation, sets a objective function for the goal to find the best ratio of the asset allocation by ES.

在全球金融朝向國際化與自由化之際，為加速經濟的發展，並因應國際間金融購併發展之趨勢；各國政府無不漸趨放寬或解除管制，使資金與人才的流動更為快速。金融機構也因透過金融控股公司的型態跨業經營，加速併購風潮。過去數十年內，全球購併的活動蔚為風潮，成為全球經濟活動的常態。 我國政府在1990年以前，對於金融事業的監理採為嚴格的限制；但在台灣加入了世界貿易組織(WTO)之後，致使台灣的金融業必須要與國際金融環境接軌，並跟其他國際大型金融機構開始競爭。解決方案之一，以及協助體質較好的本地金融機構加強國際競爭力。此為何後來政府鼓勵購併的濫觴。 回顧台灣產險市場，在2002年簽單保費突破1000億後，成長率不增反降，從2002年的11.55%逐年下滑到2005年的3.36%。相較於亞洲各國成長率逐年增加的情況，這個警訊值得注意。因此，主管機關為促進國內保險市場良性競爭與提升專業經營水準，積極對外招商。2005與2006年為產險業界變遷期間，在此期間有新安產險與原統ㄧ安聯合併案、第一金控出售明台產險給日本三井住友海上、金管會下令清理國華產險，並核准台灣人壽收購國華產險，成立龍平安產險、AIG集團正式完成收購中央產險等，均是台灣產險業界重大事件。 本研究主要是以最近相關外資金融機構購併台灣產險公司之收購活動為主軸，希望籍由2006年外資專業金融保險集團購併本地產險公司之實際個案為例，體地分析其收購之背景、決策過程、收購過程之策略規劃，檢視其執行程序、與未來經營策略規劃，並描繪收購後的初步狀況，以全盤了解該收購案總體面貌，綜之，本個案歸納與分析，得到六項要點：（1）外資機構進行購併活動，須經過詳細評估與分析。（2）擁有本地實際市場經驗，更能掌握適合的購併標的。（3）外資専業技術與全球資源的注入，提昇被購併公司未來競爭優勢。（4）致力降低收購之衝擊是購併成功之重要關鍵。（5）完善的人力資源策略，才能增加購併績效。（6）高度互補潛力，有利於未來高度綜效之充分實踐。 最後，藉由上述之各項結論，提出三點建議作為主管機關與業者未來從事保險購併活動之參考：（1）主管機關需加強審核被收購公司的人力資源策略執行計劃。（2）鼓勵外資專業產險機構來台進行購併活動。（3）對未來金融機構購併非本業之購併案宜更審慎評估。 關鍵字：外資、購併、台灣產險公司、收購過程、策略、執行程序、初步狀況 / Facing the trend of globalization & liberalization of major world wider financial institutions, the governments of key competitors have taken actions separately to loosen or de-regulate their financial regulations in order to speed up flows of talents and capitals accelerating the rampant development of merger and acquisition (M&A) practices among financial institutions. The financial institutions have being actively involved in M&A activities and have subsequently formed the financial holding companies to expand their business operations across various territories. During the past decade, the activities of global merger & acquisition have grown substantially and have become a common economic issue. The government of R.O.C., before 90’s, adopted a relatively strict regulation on supervising the financial industry. After R.O.C. joined WTO; however, local financial institutions immediately encountered severe competitions from foreign global conglomerates. One of solutions to enhance global competence of local financial institutions is to conduct merger & acquisition initiatives within certain parties. With a positive attitude, the government induced intentionally all kinds of attempts, especially M&A initiatives to improve financial strength of local financial institutions. Retrospectively, the Taiwanese general industry once set a milestone on its total written premium which surpassed NT$100 billion in 2002. However, the growth ratio dropped sharply form 11.55% of 2002 to 3.36% of 2005, in comparison with the increasing growth ratios in the other Asian countries. The whistle-blowing was noteworthy. Hence, the authority spared no efforts to induce foreign investments enhancing the vigor of capital market and reform local regulations adopting global standards of financial governance. The local general industry encountered dramatic events in 2005 & 2006. During that period, several mergers have proceeded such as follows. 1.) A merger of Newa Insurance & Allianz President. 2.) The First Financial Holding Company sold Ming Tai Insurance to Mistui Sumimoto Insurance 3.) The regulator ordered to liquidate Kuo Hwa Insurance Co. in 2005. Taiwan Life got approval to purchase Kuo Hwa and set up a new company named Dragon Insurance afterwards. 4.) AIG acquired Central Insurance. One of main subjects of this study is to elaborate the comprehensive process of acquiring a local general insurer by a foreign financial conglomerate. With an objective analysis, we might grasp a clear picture of the acquisition event, witnessing the background, decision making process, acquisition task force, as well as action plans after acquisition. Six tentative conclusions are presented as follow: 1.) A comprehensive due diligent scheme is crucial to a successful acquisition. 2.) With an in-depth experience on local market, a foreign initiator would sort out a better candidate to target. 3.) The injection of advanced professional skills & network resources by the acquirer would reform and upgrade the competence of the acquired company. 4.) One of key factors to a successful M&A initiatives is to mitigate & smoothen with all means the impact to the staff of the acquired. 5.) A well-planned scheme for human resource would induce outstanding performance of the new-formed company. 6.) Highly complementary competences between two parties of the merger initiative will result in a positive synergy in the future. Finally, three suggestive assumptions are referred to the Authority. 1.) A well-planned scheme on human resources after acquisition is crucial to original staff and shall be a major concern to financial governance. 2.) Incentives & inducements to foreign general insurers are urgent and necessary to a reforming market. 3.) A prudent assessment is fundamental to a successful merger initiative by foreign financial conglomerate as well as the local market regulator.

探討費率自由化第三階段實行兩年多來，汽車保險面臨費率自由化、及遵守保險業自律公約情況下，產物保險公司因應車商通路新競爭與新需求之行銷策略相關議題，藉由個案公司的分析探討，了解整體車商通路保險的現況與問題，提出有效建議車商通路汽車保險的關鍵成功行銷策略，並藉此拓展車商通路業績並達成利潤目標，以符合保險經營所要求的穩健性原則並創造保險公司、監理機關、車商通路與消費者多贏之態勢。 / 探討費率自由化第三階段實行兩年多來，汽車保險面臨費率自由化、及遵守保險業自律公約情況下，產物保險公司因應車商通路新競爭與新需求之行銷策略相關議題，藉由個案公司的分析探討，了解整體車商通路保險的現況與問題，提出有效建議車商通路汽車保險的關鍵成功行銷策略，並藉此拓展車商通路業績並達成利潤目標，以符合保險經營所要求的穩健性原則並創造保險公司、監理機關、車商通路與消費者多贏之態勢。

隨著金融市場的整合、金融控股公司的成立，保險公司、銀行與證券機構等的經營不再只是各自為政，其經營變化皆會影響到整體的經營成敗。子公司的經營應不再只是注重經營績效，還應納入各項經營風險的考量，在報酬與風險之間取得一個平衡點。 本研究主要是透過風險調整資本報酬(RAROC)，來測量在金控旗下產物保險公司經營績效之優劣。本文利用民國73年至93年的產物保險年鑑的財報資料，以RAROC及傳統財務比率，比較富邦公司與本國老公司經營績效之差異。 本文之實證研究結果發現如下： 1. 在傳統財務比率之下，富邦產物保險公司的經營能力與本國老公司大致相同，但獲利能力明顯優於本國老公司。 2. 在風險調整資本報酬比率下，營運部分之績效比較結果為： (1) 在全部業務之下，富邦產物保險公司與本國老公司大致相同。 (2) 在扣除分保業務之後，富邦產物明顯優於本國老公司 3. 在風險調整資本報酬比率下，富邦產物之投資方面的經營績效明顯優於本國老公司。 / After the renovation of financial market and the establishment of financial holding company in Taiwan, insurance companies, banks and security institutes will not operate independently, and their efficiency on operation will affect themselves. Subsidiary companies not only focus on efficiency on operation, but also measure variation of risk on operation to achieve a balance between risk and return. This study applies the concept of Risk-Adjusted Return on Capital (RAROC) to measure efficiency on operation of non-life insurance company in financial holding company. The empirical analysis is conducted based on the financial data of non-life insurance companies in Taiwan during the period of 1984-2003. The empirical results are summarized as follow. 1. Base on traditional financial ratios, the underwriting efficiency of Fubon is the same as the other companies, but in the part of investment, Fubon is more efficient than other companies. 2. Based on Risk-Adjusted Return on Capital for measuring underwriting efficiency: (1) Fubon and old local companies are the same efficient for total business. (2) Fubon is significantly more efficient than other companies for the retained business. 3. Based on Risk-Adjusted Return on Capital for measuring investment efficiency, Fubon is better than other companies.

IFRS 的準則，對於未來想國際化的國內保險公司及面對國際投資人，是使用相同一套會計準則，不需再調整財報，有助提升國際競爭力及國際形象，若海外發行有價證券也不需再重編財報，可節省籌資成本。依目前國際發展情勢，IFRS 4 已廣泛為全球保險市場之採用準則，直接採用(adoption)IFRS 4 亦成為國際保險市場之趨勢，我國亦於2011 年1 月1 日公佈IFRS 4 第一階段生效，期與世界接軌，IFRS 4 未來對我國保險業將會有更重大之影響。為未雨綢繆，遂引起本文對此議題研究之動機。壽險業為長年期保險合約，須採用要素衡量法評估。為符合IFRS 4 第二階段規定之要素衡量法及保費分配法之評估，採個案產險公司為研究對象，祈予在IFRS 4 第二階段實施前，台灣產險業能提早做準備，並以充足時間瞭解並完善規劃準備執行配合，以符合未來主管機關之相關規定。 本論文以個案公司為例，評估國際財務報導準則第四號對保險公司精算規範與目前保險局規範保險公司相關精算試算之差異，特選用一般自用汽車財產損失險及傷害險採用保費分配法，工程險採用要素衡量法試算，並分析差異之內容，以了解個案公司未來因IFRS4 實施對該公司財務之影響。 以目前資料推估實施當年採用保費分配法會對盈餘報導較為有利，採用要素衡量法當年度會有對盈餘報導不利的衝擊，整體而言，對個案公司未來營運應無重大影響。 / The principles of IFRS ,which is using the same set of accounting standards, is conducive to enhance the international competitiveness and image for domestic insurance companies who scheme to internationalization and contact with international investors. In addition, companies can also saving the cost of issuance of foreign securities since they do not need to restate the financial statements. Taiwan also announced the IFRS 4 phase I be effective in January 1, 2011, hoping to connect with the world. In the future, IFRS 4 will have a more significant influence on Taiwan's Insurance Industry. In order to thinking ahead, which bring in my motivation to researching on this topic. Life insurance industry is major in long term insurance contracts, has to use the Building Block Approach. To comply the IFRS 4 Phase II which using the Building Block Approach and Premium Allocation Approach, I adopt the case of property Insurance as the research objectives. In order to fit with the relevant provisions of the competent authority in the future, Expecting Taiwan’s property Insurance can prepare in advance, well understanding and scheduling, before the implement of IFRS 4 phase II. In this paper, which use the property insurance case, evaluation the actuarial valuation difference of IFRS 4 and relevant norms of Insurance Bureau. I use Premium Allocation Approach to value the usually own car property damage insurance and casualty Insurance, and use Building Block Approach to evaluate Engineering Insurance. Through analysis of the content, to understanding the influence of IFRS 4 for the study company in the future. Based on the current data, adopting Building Block Approach is beneficial for the study company. Comparatively, Premium Allocation Approach is disadvantage for the study company. In conclusion, the implement of IFRS 4 should have no significant influence to the study company in the future.

本研究欲了解有無集團企業背景對本國產險公司經營效率之影響，並透過本國有無集團企業背景產險公司之效率比較，求證關於代理理論之審慎管理假說及費用偏好假說是否成立。本研究運用資料包絡分析法(Data envelopment Analysis, DEA)及cross-frontier analysis評估民國81至90年，17家本國產險公司具集團背景及無集團背景各年度效率情況。另外，採用多元迴歸分析討論產險公司不同經營特性對經營效率的影響。本文亦利用Malmquist生產力指數分析具集團背景及無集團背景產險公司十年來生產力的變動。 　　本研究之實證研究結果如下： 一、於技術效率，具集團背景及無集團背景產險公司無技術效率差異，表示不論有無集團背景，皆有各自的經營技術優勢，符合審慎管理假說。於成本效率，發現81至85年時具集團背景產險公司之成本結構於生產無集團背景產險公司的產出相對較具成本效率，符合費用偏好假說；但86至90年時，則無集團背景產險公司之成本結構對於自己的產出較具成本效率，不符合費用偏好假說。 二、以多元迴歸分析於81至85年、86至90年，影響無集團背景產險公司效率之因素。本文發現於86至90年，當無集團背景產險公司總資產越小、再保比例越高，其以自己的成本結構進行生產，越顯著較以具集團背景產險公司的成本結構進行生產來得具成本效率。 三、二類產險公司於民國81至90年間生產力皆呈現衰退，且具集團背景產險公司衰退情況較嚴重。二類產險公司生產力衰退主因皆為生產技術的衰退；此外，具集團企業背景產險公司十年來的技術效率有衰退的趨勢，而無集團背景產險公司之技術效率則持續進步。若綜合前面成本效率的結果，則十年來具集團背景產險公司平均效率表現沒有進步跡象；而無集團背景產險公司有改善其效率。 / The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of“group”background on the property-liability insurance industry in Taiwan. We test the managerial discretion hypothesis and the expense preference hypothesis by comparing the efficiency of the group and independent property-liability insurers. Using the property-liability insurance industry in Taiwan from 1992-2001 as our sample, we use DEA and cross-frontier analysis, and adapt multiple regression analysis to examine the variables which affect the efficiency performance in the property insurance company. We also measure the productivity changes of the group firms and independent firms over ten years. The empirical results are summarized as follow. First, we find that the technical efficiency results are consistent with the managerial discretion hypothesis, in that there is no difference in the technical efficiency between the group firms and independent firms. The results of cost efficiency between 1992 and 1996 show that the group frontier dominates the independent frontier for independent outputs, supporting the expense preference hypothesis. However, the results of cost efficiency between 1997 and 2001 no more support the expense preference hypothesis in that the independent frontier dominates the group frontier for independent outputs. Second, we find that the independent firms tend to have a comparative advantage over the group firms in the independent cost frontier when the independent firm’s size is smaller or when its reinsurance proportion is higher. Finally, the results of the Malmquist productivity analysis show that the productivity of group firms declines in 1992-2001, and the decay is due to their technical efficiency decreases. Conversely, the productivity of the independent firm improves.

本文所使用信用風險評價模型為KMV公司用以衡量未上市公司之違約風險的PFM模型(Private Firms Model)，主要的研究標的為美國未上市產險公司。此模型最主要的目的在求出公司的資產市值及資產市值報酬率波動度，並假設資產市值的變動遵循標準幾何布朗運動，因此在產險公司的資產市值小於某值後，該公司即算違約，其中資產市值平均與該值的距離稱為違約距離。而未上市產險公司缺少股價資訊，因此無法用一般的選擇權評價公式求得資產市值及資產市值報酬率波動度，所以先使用可以衡量上市產險公司資產市值的KMV模型(Moody's KMV EDF□)，找出上市公司的資產市值及資產市值報酬率波動度，再找出財務比率與兩者的關係，最後再將這層關係套用到未上市產險公司，如此可以求得未上市產險公司之資產市值及資產市值報酬率波動度。 本文經過實證研究過後，發現套用從1991年到2000年上市產險公司資料中找出的關係，代入2000年的未上市產險公司資料來預測公司於2001年是否違約，其結果發現準確度並不高；接著且再以違約距離和少部份財務變數做為預測模型，代入2001年資料，以預測2002年未上市產險公司的違約與否，其準確率也與先前相近，兩者的解釋能力約都只有六成到七成，雖然如此，還是可以發現違約距離在解釋能力上還是有一定之貢獻，如果可以將違約的樣本群數量□加，應該可以提升預測的準確度。 / This theme is to measure the default probabilities of private P&C firms’ default in the U.S A. The model this paper used is called PFM (Private Firms Model). The asset value and asset volatility could be found by this model, but we must assume that the asset value will follow General Brownian Motion. After finding asset value and asset volatility, the next step is to find the default point. The distance between the expected asset value and the default point is DD (Distance to Default). However, the private P&C firms lack the relative stock information, so the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model couldn’t be used. In order to find the relationship between the private firms’ asset value and asset volatility, we can use Moody's KMV EDF□ (Expected Default Frequency) credit risk pricing model to measure the public P&C firms’ asset value and its volatility and find the relationship between those and firms’ financial ratios. Using the public firms’ relationship on private firms, the distance to default of the private firms can be found. Through the empirical research, the correct rate of this model on the private P&C firms in the U.S.A is low. Besides, let DD and other financial ratios be the variables to forecast the next year, the correct rate is still low, but we can find that DD’s ability to explain the default probability is 60~70%. Therefore, we can say DD is still the useful variable and if the sample size of default firm can be increase, the correct rate may be promoted.