In order to explain presidential decisions to use force, a model is developed that incorporates three distinct decision-making environments. The results indicate the president is responsive not only to domestic and international environments, but also to the resource evaluation environment. The evidence here demonstrates that while these two environments are important the president can't use force arbitrarily; rather, his evaluation of resources available for the use of force can limit his ability to engage the military during crisis situations.

The theme of this study is that seven major East Asian less developed countries (LDCs) have experienced "dependent development," and that some internal and external intervening factors mattered in that process. Utilizing a framework of "dependent development," the data analysis deals with the political economy of development in these countries. This analysis supports the fundamental arguments of the dependent development perspective, which emphasize positive effects of foreign capital dependence in domestic capital formation and industrialization in East Asian LDCs. This perspective assumes the active role of the state, and it is found here to be crucial in capital accumulation and in economic growth. This cross-national time-series analysis also shows that the effects of external dependence and military spending on capital accumulation and economic growth can be considered as a regional phenomenon. The dependent development perspective offers a useful way to understand economic dynamism of East Asian LDCs for the past two decades.

In this paper I look at the evolving role of Russia in the Middle East, analyzing transfers of Russian military equipment to its main ally in the region, the Syrian Arab Republic. By using Syria as a case study, I provide insight as to the evolution of Russia’s Middle Eastern policy, examine the motivations that play a role in Moscow’s decision-making process and the discuss the changes that have taken place in the Middle East military landscape. My research illustrates that Russia is a prestige seeking state that is motivated my domestic issues. Furthermore, sixty years of arms transfers indicate that Russia has never sold game-changing weapons to Syria as this would be counterproductive to Moscow’s main goal in the region: the brokering of a new Middle East peace deal. / text

This thesis investigates the economic and military policies hegemons pursue while experiencing relative decline. Based upon the rising costs of leadership associated with hegemony, this thesis establishes that both systemic and domestic environments equally influence the hegemon's policy-making. Furthermore, the paper contends that hegemons do practice strategic planning during relative decline, in an effort to adjust its commitments and resources to the environment. Relative success or failure in maintaining the international system and thus adjusting for decline depends on how decision-makers compensate for two prevailing variables: threat of challengers and availability of allies. This study offers a predictive theoretical model for interpreting the dynamics of grand strategy formulation, compensating for the influences of the domestic environment three historical case studies, the Dutch Republic, Britain and the United States, test the accuracy and validity of the model. This thesis finds that periods of strong leadership, void of threat, while augmented by external balancing best support a hegemon's relative decline.

La politique militaire de la France en Afrique est en évolution. La véracité factuelle de ce constat est désormais difficilement contestable. Ce changement s’observe d’abord dans le discours où l’on parle de plus en plus d’anciennes pratiques dépassées et reconnaît que ce qui était politiquement possible et admis il y a vingt ans ne l’est plus aujourd’hui. Ce processus s’incarne ensuite dans la modification des instruments d’action ainsi que dans les modes et les niveaux d’utilisation de ces instruments. Partant de ces considérations, le présent travail se propose d’examiner les facteurs à l’origine de cette évolution. Il part des réponses jusqu’ici proposées pour apporter un éclairage nouveau au sujet des forces et dynamiques à la base des changements annoncés ou observés. Contrairement à la littérature existante qui a jusqu’ici privilégié les approches matérialistes et utilitaristes pour expliquer les transformations entreprises et celles promises dans la politique militaire africaine de la France, cette étude propose, à l’inverse, une perspective inspirée des approches cognitives et axée sur le processus d’apprentissage. Ainsi, plutôt que de voir dans les réformes ici analysées le résultat exclusif de changements structurels ou systémiques survenus dans l’environnement économique, social ou international des États, notre analyse fera davantage valoir que cette transformation a pour l’essentiel été une adaptation faite à la lumière des leçons tirées d’expériences antérieures. Cette analyse s’appuie sur l’Advocacy Coalition Framework. Développée par Paul A Sabatier et ses collègues, il postule que la prise de décision en matière de politique publique peut être mieux comprise comme une compétition entre coalitions de cause, chacune étant constituée d’acteurs provenant d’une multitudes d’institutions (leaders de groupes d’intérêt, agences administratives, chercheurs, journalistes) qui partagent un système de croyances lié à l’action publique et qui s’engagent dans un effort concerté afin de traduire des éléments de leur système de croyances en une politique publique. / France’s military policy in Africa is changing. It is henceforth difficult to contest the factual truth of this statement. This change is firstly observed in discourse where there is increasing reference to old, out-dated practices as well as the recognition that what was politically possible and acceptable twenty years ago is no longer today. This process of change is found secondly in the modification of action tools as well as the way and at which level these tools are implemented. Using these reflections as a starting point, the current study proposes to examine the factors at the root of this evolution. In referring to hypotheses put forth in the past, this study will shed new light on the struggles and dynamics at the base of these predicted or observed changes. Unlike existing literature which has, until now, favoured material and utilitarian approaches to explain the transformations already undertaken and promised in African military politics, this study will suggest a perspective inspired by cognitive approaches and centered on policy learning. Thus, rather than seeing these reforms as the exclusive result of structural or systematic changes which occurred in the economic, social or international environment of the States, our analysis will emphasize that this transformation was mainly an adaptation made following lessons learned over the course of previous experiences. This analysis is founded on the Advocacy Coalition Framework. Developed by Sabatier and Jenkins-Smith, the Advocacy Coalition Framework focuses on the interaction of advocacy coalitions, each composed of actors from various governmental and private organizations who both share a set of normative and causal beliefs and engage in a non-trivial degree of co-ordinated activity over time in order to transform the elements of their beliefs system into public policy.

This thesis has explored two basic themes in post-Cold War international relations. The first is the transformation of the global and regional security environments leading to a projected decline in the importance of traditional realist-style security problems. The second is the supposed shift in state behavior with conflictual strategies giving way to accommodation. These presumed trends are explored in the context of Southeast Asia and, more specifically, China's security strategies and relations in the region. This study argues that conventional security problems have declined in Southeast Asia in the short term but still remain prominent. In terms of policies, while China's goals remained partly revisionist with regard to territorial issues and status/power relationships, its approaches became more accommodative in coping with disputed issues in the region. This was manifested above all in its gradual acceptance of a multilateral framework for dialogue on regional security issues and in its willingness to undertake some confidence building measures in the military area. This shift can be explained partly in terms of China's external political concerns at both the global and regional levels. The more fundamental explanation, however, lies in China's drive for economic modernization with an accommodative regional strategy intended to ensure the flow of external resources required for this purpose.

Submitted by Kelly Ayala (kelly.ayala@fgv.br) on 2016-09-05T19:16:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçaoMenezes.pdf: 680635 bytes, checksum: 56f08032423590244e2c99b1b0bb7315 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Kelly Ayala (kelly.ayala@fgv.br) on 2016-09-05T19:17:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçaoMenezes.pdf: 680635 bytes, checksum: 56f08032423590244e2c99b1b0bb7315 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Kelly Ayala (kelly.ayala@fgv.br) on 2016-09-05T19:19:43Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçaoMenezes.pdf: 680635 bytes, checksum: 56f08032423590244e2c99b1b0bb7315 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-05T19:21:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçaoMenezes.pdf: 680635 bytes, checksum: 56f08032423590244e2c99b1b0bb7315 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / This work deals with lhe Management of Crisis adopled in lhe Military Policy of lhe Slate of Amazon. The academic intenlion was to verify if lhe corporation adopts countermeasures to miligale lhe harmful effecl of the phenomena of crisis in favor of it image and credibilily, based on lhe formularizalion of a Plan of contingency studies'. The mentioned studies less go lo lhe meeting of a new conceplion in lhe change of lhe current paradigm of favorable management of institulional crisis that il deals wilh negative circumslances and lhal affects the corporation directly. The objective of lhese actions is to give lo lhe responsible for lhe decision and, consequenlly, for lhe managemenl of lhe crisis, lhe theorelical conduclion lhal lhe policy of Amazon can treal in lhe momenls of lhe crisis. This research discloses lhat lhe corporalion, military policy of lhe Slate of Amazon, hasn't a cullure of lhe prevention of lhe crisis and doesn't find inslrumenls to deal with the crisis in a scienlific and lechnique way, preventing, informing and giving solutions to lhe delicale phenomena of lhe democratic and multipluralisla society where we live. / Este trabalho de pesquisa trata do Gerenciamento de Crise adotado pela Polícia Militar do Estado do Amazonas - PMAM. A abordagem acadêmica foi verificar se a corporação adota contramedidas no sentido de mitigar os efeitos nocivos dos fenômenos de crise a favor de sua imagem e credibilidade, baseado nos estudos sobre a formulação de um Plano de contingência. Os estudos menos mencionados vão ao encontro de uma nova concepção na mudança do atual paradigma de gestão de crise institucional que lida com circunstâncias negativas e desfavoráveis que afetem diretamente a corporação. A meta dessas ações é proporcionar aos tomadores de decisão, responsáveis pelo Gerenciamento de Crise, tipicamente não policial que resulte em conhecimentos teóricos para lidar com os momentos de crise que a corporação poderá a vir enfrentar. A pesquisa através de seu conteúdo empírico aponta que a corporação Polícia Militar do Estado do Amazonas não possui uma cultura de prevenção de crise e ainda não se encontra apta a lidar com o fator crise de forma técnica e científica na prevenção com o intuito de informar e da solução aos difíceis e delicados fenômenos nocivos sociedade democrática e multipluralista em que vivemos na atualidade.

Submitted by Oliveira Santos Dilzaná (dilznana@yahoo.com.br) on 2016-05-06T14:46:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE de Cleide Magali dos Santos.pdf: 4558894 bytes, checksum: b843633dd38586742d3f139018981ccc (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Oliveira Santos Dilzaná (dilznana@yahoo.com.br) on 2016-05-11T13:32:40Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE de Cleide Magali dos Santos.pdf: 4558894 bytes, checksum: b843633dd38586742d3f139018981ccc (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-11T13:32:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE de Cleide Magali dos Santos.pdf: 4558894 bytes, checksum: b843633dd38586742d3f139018981ccc (MD5) / Este trabalho trata da segurança pública no estado democrático de direito brasileiro, os estudos se concentram nos sentidos e significados que compõem as ações de manutenção da ordem pública nos momentos de protestos em espaços públicos. Em um recorte histórico mais detalhado, centra-se nos protestos protagonizados por jovens nos dez primeiros anos do século XXI, nas ruas de Salvador-Bahia. A tese defendida é que a repressão de ações coletivas de protestos por parte da policia militar não pode ser explicada exclusivamente pelo passado ditatorial (ainda com impactos na atuação das forças de segurança pública no país) como expressão de uma política de controle social, mas também como expressão de uma noção de ordem (e desordem) decorrente de julgamentos ideológicos pautados em estereótipos e preconceitos sobre a conduta (in)desejada de determinados indivíduos - julgamentos estes, constituídos pelo intercruzamento de variáveis relacionadas aos valores quanto às questões raciais/étnicas, geracionais, de classe e gênero. Valores socioculturais também expressos quando do uso do poder discricionário do policial para definição de quem, quando e como se provoca a des(ordem), na margem deixada pela Constituição Brasileira. Aqui, não se trata de desonerar (ou desculpabilizar) a estrutura ou uma instituição nela inserida para onerar indivíduos por “atos mal feitos”, antes, a questão é alcançar as variáveis e seus intercruzamentos nos momentos de ações e assim contribuir para reflexão sobre uso e abuso da força, ampliando a compreensão do fenômeno. Assim, a investigação enfrenta uma permanente tensão entre estrutura e situação, entre explicação de ordem estrutural e explicação de ordem situacional - de um lado, está o campo da segurança pública que expressa a própria estrutura com uma dinâmica mais resistente às mudanças sociais e, por outro lado, está o campo dos movimentos sociais, que expressa na maioria das vezes o questionamento das estruturas e organizações sociais e por isso são inovadores, indicadores de mudanças sociais e pulsadores da sociedade. Como tema que ainda carece de um campo próprio constituído, tomam-se como fluídas as fronteiras das disciplinais (ciência política, sociologia, antropologia, história, direito) e recorre-se às teorias e teóricos agregados em quatro grandes grupos não unanimes nas abordagens e visões, mas que orientaram a investigação, a saber: teorização sobre estado democrático de direito; teorização sobre o sistema cidadão de segurança pública no estado democrático de direito; teorização sobre a criminalização das ações coletivas de protestos em espaços públicos no estado democrático de direito e, por fim, a teorização sobre os ciclos de protestos. A pesquisa empírica adotou a abordagem metodológica qualitativa, analisando representações sociais, cujo acesso se deu através da captura de discursos oficiais apreendidos via documentos; discursos mediáticos e discursos dos próprios agentes policiais militares. This paper discusses public security of the democratic state in Brazil. Our studies focus on the senses and meanings of actions for the maintenance of law and order during protests in public spaces. At a certain historic moment, it focuses on the protests led by young people in the first years of the 21st century on the streets of Salvador-Bahia. We argue that the suppression of protests by the military police cannot be explained only by the dictatorial past (it still presents impacts on the actions of the public security of our country) as expression of a policy of social control, but also as expression of a notion of order (or disorder) that results from ideological judgments based on stereotypes and prejudices about (not) desired conduct of some individuals – judgments that are based on the mixing of variables related to values of racial/ethnic, generational, class and gender. Sociocultural values are also expressed by the use of arbitrary power by the police for definition of who, when and how to provoke (dis)order, according to the margin left by the Brazilian Constitution. It is not a about exonerating (or excusing) the structure or an institution to be a burden on individuals for “bad behaviors”. The question is to achieve the variables and their interbreeding in times of action, contributing to the reflection on use and misuse of force in a way we can understand the phenomenon. Thus, the investigation faces a permanent tension between the structure and the situation, between the explanation of the structural order and the explanation of the situational order – on one hand there is the public security, which expresses its own structure according to a more resistant dynamics to social changes, and on the other hand there are the social movements, which usually expresses the questioning of structures and social organizations, and therefore they are innovative, indicators of social changes and motivators of society. Being a theme which needs a proper field, it is possible to see the shared borders among disciplines like political science, sociology, anthropology, history, law, and we use theories and authors from four large groups which do not share the same approaches and visions, but which are the base of our investigation: theorization of the democratic state; theorization of the citizen system of public security in the democratic state; theorization of criminalization of collective actions of protests in public spaces in the democratic state; and theorization of the protests cycles. Our empirical search is based on a qualitative methodology, and we analyze social representations through the capture of official discourses from documents, media discourses and military discourses.

M.A. (National Strategy) / Please refer to full text to view abstract

This thesis examines the Japanese military conquests leading up to their attack on Pearl Harbor, including aggression towards Korea, China, and the Pacific islands.