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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
41

Accounting and innovation: evidence from external disclosure and internal management control systems

Bellora, Lucia 04 June 2013 (has links)
This dissertation is composed of three research papers that deal with the topic of “accounting and innovation” and provide evidence for the area of innovation from two accounting perspectives, i.e., the external disclosure perspective and the internal management control system perspective. The disclosure perspective is addressed in the first paper. Using content analysis, it examines the innovation capital disclosure characteristics, i.e., disclosure quantity and quality, in intellectual capital statements of 51 European for-profit firms. Additionally, the relationship between innovation capital disclosure characteristics and industry, firm size, region of domicile, and disclosure guidelines adopted are analyzed. The second and third paper address the management control system perspective. The second paper contributes to the research on management control systems in product development by exploring the performance effects and the interplay of the levers of control, i.e., interactive, diagnostic, beliefs, and boundary control systems, based on data from a survey of 468 senior managers from the manufacturing industry. Therefore, I compare by structural equation modeling a base model of unrelated levers of control (additive model) with (a) a model of mutual association of levers of control (interdependence model), (b) a model of joint use of levers of control (interaction model), and (c) a combined model of mutual association and joint use of levers of control (combined interdependence/interaction model). The best fitting and most parsimonious model is analyzed in terms of the performance effects of the levers of control. Based on the sample of the second paper, the third paper contributes to the recent literature on the relationship between management control systems and innovation by considering how the four levers of control are used as “packages” in product development. I employ cluster analysis to determine how the levers of control are combined, depending on the type of strategy formation (i.e., intended or emergent) and the degree of innovativeness of the firm. Furthermore, I explore which of these combinations are equifinal in terms of product development and organizational performance.
42

Modeling and Analysis of Long-Term Shifts in Bioenergy Use-With Special Reference to Ethiopia : Improving Sustainable Development

Mengistu, Azemeraw Tadesse January 2013 (has links)
Ethiopia is one of the sub-Saharan Africa countries whose energy depends on traditional use of biomass such as wood, charcoal, agricultural residues and animal dung. The traditional use of biomass mainly wood and charcoal leads the country to massive deforestation and forest degradation. Negative environmental impacts from poorly managed municipal solid waste are also serious problems in the country. Moreover, there is a wide range of fossil fuels demand in the country fully covered by importing which results to a significant expenditure from the country’s budget. This study investigates the long-term shifts in bioenergy use of the country and evaluates the expected social, environmental and economical implications. For this purpose, three scenarios are formulated within a timeframe that goes from 2013 to 2030. The baseline scenario assumes the existing energy practices of the country would undergo no significant change in the future while the moderate shift and high shift scenarios consider the long-term shifts in bioenergy use with and without considering constraints respectively. In this context, long-term shifts means: transition from traditional use of biomass to efficient and modern in the household sector, biofuels deployment in the transport sector, introduction of agricultural residues as a fuel for cement production, and electricity generation from bagasse and municipal solid waste. To model and analyze the scenarios, the long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) software tool is used. Taking the results of high shift scenario by 2030, the use of improved wood stoves and fuel switch stoves could save 65 million tons of wood. The foreign currency saving from using biofuels and agricultural residues as fossil fuels substitute would reach to 674 million USD. The greenhouse gas emissions reduction is equivalent to 46 million tons of CO2e which is about 18.4% of the CO2e abatement target of the country for 2030. The corresponding revenue from carbon trading schemes would reach to 231 million USD. Electricity generation from bagasse and municipal solid waste would be 3,672 GWh that is around 3.7% of the total electricity generation target for 2030.
43

Nuclear Safety related Cybersecurity Impact Analysis and Security Posture Monitoring

Gupta, Deeksha 05 April 2022 (has links)
The Electrical Power Systems (EPS) are indispensable for a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). The EPS are essential for plant start-up, normal operation, and emergency conditions. Electrical power systems are necessary not only for power generation, transmission, and distribution but also to supply reliable power for plant operation and control system during safe operation, Design Basis Conditions (DBC) and Design Extension Conditions (DEC). According to IAEA Specific Safety Guide SSG-34, EPS are essentially the support systems of many plant equipment. Electrical system, which supply power to plant systems important to nuclear safety, are essential to the safety of an NPP. In recent years, due to the digitization of Instrumentation and Control (I&C) systems, along with their enhanced accuracy, ease of implementing complex functions and flexibility, have been also exposed to sophisticated cyber threats. Despite physical separation and redundant electrical power supply sources, malicious cyber-attacks performed by insiders or outsiders might disrupt the power flow and result in an interruption in the normal operation of an NPP. Therefore, for the uninterrupted operation of a plant, it is crucial to contemplate cybersecurity in the EPS design and implementation. Considering multiple cyber threats, the main objectives of this research work are finding out security vulnerabilities in electrical power systems, simulating potential cyber-attacks and analyzing the impacts of these attacks on the electrical components to protect the electrical systems against these cyber-attacks. An EPS testbed at a small scale was set up, which included commercial I&C and electrical equipment significant for the cybersecurity analysis. The testbed equipment comprises of electrical protection relay (IEC 60255), controller, operating panel, engineering workstation computer, simulation model, etc. to monitor and control the power supply of one or more electrical equipment responsible for a regular operation in an NPP. Simulated cybersecurity attacks were performed using this testbed and the outcomes were examined in multiple iterations, after adding or changing security controls (cybersecurity countermeasures). Analyzing the cybersecurity and performing cyber-attacks on these systems are very advantageous for a real power plant to prepare and protect the plant equipment before any malicious attack happens. This research work conclusively presents cybersecurity analysis, including basic and sophisticated cyber-attack scenarios to understand and improve the cybersecurity posture of EPS in an NPP. The approach was completed by considering the process engineering systems (e.g. reactor core cooling systems) as attack targets and investigating the EPS specific security Defense-in-Depth (DiD) design together with the Nuclear Safety DiD concepts.:CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Motivation 1.2 Technical Background 1.3 Objectives of the Ph.D. Project 1.4 State of the Art in Science and Technology CHAPTER 2 FUNDAMENTALS OF CYBERSECURITY AND ELECTRICAL CONTROL AND PROTECTION CONCEPTS 2.1 Electrical Power System 2.2 Electrical Protection System 2.3 Cyber-Physical System 2.4 Industrial Control System 2.5 Safety I&C and Operational I&C Systems 2.6 Safety Objective Oriented Top-Down Approach 2.7 Cybersecurity Concept 2.8 Threat Identification and Characterization in NPP 2.8.1 Design Basis Threat 2.8.2 Attacker Profile 2.8.1 Reported Real-Life NPP Cyber-Attack Examples 2.9 Security Levels 2.10 Summary CHAPTER 3 CYBER-PHYSICAL PROCESS MODELING 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Single Line Diagrams of Different Operational Modes 3.3 Design 3.4 Block Diagram of Simulink Model 3.5 Implementation of Simulink Blocks 3.5.1 Power Generation 3.5.2 Grid Feed 3.5.3 House Load (Feed Water Pump) 3.6 OPC UA Communication 3.7 Summary CHAPTER 4 CYBER THREAT SCENARIOS FOR EPS 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Cyber-Physical System for EPS 4.3 Cyber Threats and Threat Sources 4.3.1 Cyber Threats 4.3.2 Threat Sources 4.4 Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities 4.4.1 Vulnerabilities in EPS 4.4.2 Vulnerabilities in ICS 4.5 Attacker Modeling 4.6 Basic Cyber Threat Scenarios for EPS 4.6.1 Scenario-1: Physical Access to Electrical Cabinets 4.6.2 Scenario-2: Modification of Digital Protection Devices 4.7 Potential Advanced Cyber Threat Scenarios for EPS 4.7.1 Scenario-1: Alteration of a Set-point of the Protection Relay 4.7.2 Scenario-2: Injection of Malicious Packets 4.7.3 Scenario-3: False Trip Command 4.7.4 Scenario-4: Availability Attack on Protection Relay or SCADA System 4.7.5 Scenario-5: Permanent Damage to Physical Component 4.7.6 Scenario-6: Protocol-wise Attack on Operator Panel 4.8 Threat Scenario for Simulink model 4.9 Summary CHAPTER 5 EPS TESTBED DESCRIPTION 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Basic Industrial Automation Architecture 5.3 Need for Testbeds 5.4 Proposed EPS Testbed 5.4.1 Testbed Architecture 5.4.2 Testbed Implementation 5.5 EPS Physical Testbed Applications 5.5.1 Modeling and Simulation of Power System Faults 5.5.2 Modeling of Cyber-Attacks 5.6 Summary CHAPTER 6 EXPERIMENTAL AND IMPACT ANALYSIS OF CYBER THREAT SCENARIOS 6.1 Outline 6.2 Normal Operation and Control 6.3 Possibilities to Cause Failure in the Primary or Secondary Cooling Systems 6.4 Implementation of Cybersecurity Threat Scenarios 6.4.1 Alteration of a Relay Set-Point during Plant Start-Up Phase 6.4.2 Alteration of a Controller Set-Point during Normal Operation Phase 6.4.3 Availability Attack on Control and Protection System 6.4.4 Severe Damage to a Physical Component due to Overcurrent 6.5 Experimentally Assessed Cyber-attacks 6.6 Summary CHAPTER 7 SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK REFERENCES SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS GLOSSARY
44

Modelování jakosti vody ve vodovodní síti / Modeling of water quality in the water supply network

Dukát, Petr January 2022 (has links)
This thesis looks at water quality modelling in the water network, focusing on water age. The initial part of the work identifies the factors that lead to an increase in water age in water supply networks. The theoretical part of the work presents the mathematical relationships and logistical steps that software tools apply to simulate water quality indicators in a water supply network. In the practical part of the work, a hydraulic model of a water distribution system with a total length of 302,1 km was constructed. Measurement campaign was carried out to calibrate and verify created hydraulic model. Using this hydraulic model, water age for existing and possible scenarios was simulated. The results of the work have revealed parts of the water supply network containing high water age and are intended to encourage the progressive water distribution systems management philosophy.
45

Control Network Performance Engineering: Qualitätsorientierter Entwurf von CSMA-Netzwerken der Automation

Plönnigs, Jörn 23 May 2007 (has links)
Beim Entwurf großer Netzwerke der Automation ermöglichen Methoden der Leistungsbewertung den Test und die Dimensionierung eines Netzwerkes bereits vor der Inbetriebnahme und erlauben damit einen effizienten, qualitätsorientierten Entwurf. Es ist jedoch sehr wissensintensiv und aufwendig, entsprechende Analyse- oder Simulations-Modelle aufzustellen und die Ergebnisse auszuwerten, weshalb die Methoden in der Praxis der Automation selten verwendet werden. Viel vertrauter sind dem Entwerfer hingegen die speziellen Software-Tools, mit denen in der Automation Netzwerke entworfen werden. Auf Basis der Datenbanken dieser Tools werden in dieser Arbeit verschieden Verfahren zur automatischen Systemmodellierung, Verkehrsmodellierung, Leistungsbewertung und Fehlerdiagnose zu einem Control Network Performance Engineering kombiniert, welches die Qualitätsbewertung und -beratung nahtlos und ohne Mehraufwand in den Netzwerkentwurf integriert. (Die Dissertation wurde veröffentlicht im Jörg Vogt Verlag, Voglerstr. 20, 01277 Dresden, Internet: http://www.vogtverlag.de/, email: info@vogtverlag.de, ISBN 978-3-938860-10-6) / During the design of large automation networks, performance analysis methods can be used for testing and dimensioning the network before implementation and are essential for an efficient and reliable design process. However, setting up the necessary analytical or simulative models is time-consuming, requires in-depth knowledge, and is therefore often not applicable in practice. The network designers are much more used to the design tools used to develop automation networks. Based on these tools' databases various methods for automated system and traffic modeling, performance analysis and diagnoses are combined in the control network performance engineering that seamlessly integrates quality analysis and consulting into network design without requiring additional effort. (This manuscript is also available - in the form of a book - from Jörg Vogt Verlag, Voglerstr. 20, 01277 Dresden, Germany world-wide web address: http://www.vogtverlag.de/, electronic-mail address: info@vogtverlag.de, ISBN 978-3-938860-10-6 )
46

Modélisation et analyses cinématiques de l'épaule lors de levers de charges en hauteur

Desmoulins, Landry 10 1900 (has links)
Thèse de doctorat à mi-chemin entre la recherche fondamentale et appliquée. Les champs disciplinaires sont principalement la biomécanique, l'ergonomie physique ou encore l'anatomie. Réalisé en cotutelle avec le professeur Paul Allard et Mickael Begon. / An occupation that requires handling loads combined with large elevation of the arms is associated with the occurrence of shoulders musculoskeletal disorder. The analysis of these joint movements is essential because it helps to quantify the stress applied to the musculoskeletal structures. This thesis provides an innovative model which allows the estimation of the shoulder complex kinematics and used it to analyze the joints kinematics during lifting tasks. It is organized into three sub-objectives. The first aim is the development and validation of a kinematic model the most representative as possible of the shoulder complex anatomy while correcting soft tissue artifacts through the use of global optimization. This model included a scapulothoracic closed loop, which constrains a scapular dot contact to be coincident with thoracic gliding plane modeled by a subject-specific ellipsoid. In the validation process, the reference model used the gold standard for direct measurements of bone movements. In dynamic movements, the closed loop model developed generates barely more kinematic errors that errors obtained for the study of standard movements by existing models. The second aim is to detect and quantify the shoulder articular movements influenced by the combined effects of two risk factors: task height and load weight. The results indicate that many peaks of joint angles are influenced by the interaction of height and weight. According to the different initial and deposits heights when the weight increases, the kinematics changes are substantial, in number and magnitude. The kinematic strategies of participants are more consistent when the weight of load increase for initial height lift at hips level compared to shoulders level, and for a deposit at eye level compared to shoulders. The third aim is to investigate the magnitude and temporality of the maximum peak vertical acceleration of the box. The significant joints movements are characterized with a principal component analysis of joint angle values collected at this instant. In particular, this study highlights that elbow flexion and thoraco-humeral elevation are two correlated invariant joint movements to all lifting tasks whatever the initial and deposit height, and weight of the load. The realism of the developed shoulder model and kinematics analyzes open perspectives in occupational biomechanics and contribute to risk prevention efforts in health and safety. / Une activité professionnelle qui exige de manipuler des charges combinée à de grandes élévations des bras augmente les chances de développer un trouble musculo-squelettique aux épaules. L’analyse de ces mouvements articulaires est essentielle car elle contribue à quantifier les contraintes appliquées aux structures musculo-squelettiques. Cette thèse propose un modèle innovant qui permet l’estimation de la cinématique du complexe de l’épaule, et l’utilise ensuite afin d’analyser la cinématique de levers de charge. Elle s’organise en trois sous-objectifs. Le premier concerne le développement et la validation d’un modèle cinématique le plus représentatif possible de l’anatomie du complexe de l’épaule tout en corrigeant les artéfacts des tissus mous par une optimisation multi-segmentaire. Ce modèle avec une fermeture de boucle scapulo-thoracique, impose à un point de contact scapulaire d’être coïncident au plan de glissement thoracique modélisé par un ellipsoïde mis à l’échelle pour chaque sujet. Le modèle qui a été utilisé comme référence lors des comparaisons du processus de validation bénéficie du « gold standard » de mesures directes des mouvements osseux. Le modèle développé en boucle fermée génère à peine plus d’erreurs cinématiques lors de mouvements dynamiques que les erreurs obtenues par les modèles existants pour l’étude de mouvements standards. Le second identifie et quantifie les mouvements articulaires de l’épaule influencés par la combinaison des effets de deux facteurs de risques : les hauteurs importantes d’agencement de la tâche (hauteurs de saisie et de dépôt) et les masses de charges (6 kg, 12 kg et 18 kg). Les résultats indiquent qu’il existe de nombreux pics d’angles articulaires qui sont influencés par l’interaction des deux effets. Lorsque la masse augmente, les modifications cinématiques sont plus importantes, en nombre et en amplitude, selon les différentes hauteurs de saisies et de dépôts de la charge. Les participants varient peu leur mode opératoire pour une saisie à hauteur des hanches en comparaison des épaules, et pour un dépôt à hauteur des yeux en comparaison aux épaules avec une charge plus lourde. Un troisième s’intéresse au pic maximal d’accélération verticale de la charge dans son intensité et sa temporalité. Basée sur une analyse en composante principale des valeurs d’angles articulaires à cet instant, elle permet de caractériser les mouvements articulaires significatifs. Cette étude met notamment en évidence que la flexion du coude et l’élévation thoraco-humérale sont deux mouvements articulaires corrélés invariants à toutes les tâches de lever en hauteur quelles que soient la hauteur de dépôt et la masse de la charge. Le souci de réalisme du modèle développé et les analyses cinématiques menées ouvrent des perspectives en biomécanique occupationnelle et participent à l’effort de prévention des risques en santé et sécurité.
47

Modeling and Analysis of Large-Scale On-Chip Interconnects

Feng, Zhuo 2009 December 1900 (has links)
As IC technologies scale to the nanometer regime, efficient and accurate modeling and analysis of VLSI systems with billions of transistors and interconnects becomes increasingly critical and difficult. VLSI systems impacted by the increasingly high dimensional process-voltage-temperature (PVT) variations demand much more modeling and analysis efforts than ever before, while the analysis of large scale on-chip interconnects that requires solving tens of millions of unknowns imposes great challenges in computer aided design areas. This dissertation presents new methodologies for addressing the above two important challenging issues for large scale on-chip interconnect modeling and analysis: In the past, the standard statistical circuit modeling techniques usually employ principal component analysis (PCA) and its variants to reduce the parameter dimensionality. Although widely adopted, these techniques can be very limited since parameter dimension reduction is achieved by merely considering the statistical distributions of the controlling parameters but neglecting the important correspondence between these parameters and the circuit performances (responses) under modeling. This dissertation presents a variety of performance-oriented parameter dimension reduction methods that can lead to more than one order of magnitude parameter reduction for a variety of VLSI circuit modeling and analysis problems. The sheer size of present day power/ground distribution networks makes their analysis and verification tasks extremely runtime and memory inefficient, and at the same time, limits the extent to which these networks can be optimized. Given today?s commodity graphics processing units (GPUs) that can deliver more than 500 GFlops (Flops: floating point operations per second). computing power and 100GB/s memory bandwidth, which are more than 10X greater than offered by modern day general-purpose quad-core microprocessors, it is very desirable to convert the impressive GPU computing power to usable design automation tools for VLSI verification. In this dissertation, for the first time, we show how to exploit recent massively parallel single-instruction multiple-thread (SIMT) based graphics processing unit (GPU) platforms to tackle power grid analysis with very promising performance. Our GPU based network analyzer is capable of solving tens of millions of power grid nodes in just a few seconds. Additionally, with the above GPU based simulation framework, more challenging three-dimensional full-chip thermal analysis can be solved in a much more efficient way than ever before.
48

Μοντελοποίηση μη-στάσιμων ταλαντώσεων μέσω συναρτησιακών μοντέλων TARMA: μέθοδοι εκτίμησης και ιδιότητες αυτών

Πουλημένος, Άγγελος 22 May 2008 (has links)
Το πρόβλημα που αντιμετωπίζει η διατριβή αφορά στη μοντελοποίηση μη-στασίμων τυχαίων ταλαντώσεων επί τη βάσει μετρήσεων του σήματος της ταλάντωσης, μέσω μοντέλων FS-TAR/TARMA. Οι στόχοι της διατριβής περιλαμβάνουν την αποτίμηση της εφαρμοσιμότητας των μεθόδων FS-TAR/TARMA για την μοντελοποίηση και ανάλυση της ταλάντωσης χρονικά μεταβαλλόμενών κατασκευών, καθώς και τη σύγκρισή τους με εναλλακτικές παραμετρικές μεθόδους του πεδίου του χρόνου. Ιδιαίτερη βαρύτητα δίνεται και στην αντιμετώπιση θεμάτων που σχετίζονται με την εκτίμηση μοντέλων FS-ΤAR/TARMA, καθώς και στην θεωρητική ασυμπτωτική ανάλυση των ιδιοτήτων των εκτιμητριών που χρησιμοποιούνται. Η διατριβή αρχικά παρουσιάζει μια συγκριτική ανασκόπηση της βιβλιογραφίας στο θέμα της μοντελοποίησης μη-στασίμων ταλαντώσεων μέσω παραμετρικών μεθόδων του πεδίου του χρόνου, η οποία και επιδεικνύει τα πλεονεκτήματα των μεθόδων FS-TAR/TARMA. Στη συνέχεια αντιμετωπίζεται μια σειρά προβλημάτων που εμφανίζονται κατά την εκτίμηση (των παραμέτρων) και την επιλογή της δομής του μοντέλου. Η αποτελεσματικότητα των μεθόδων FS-TAR/TARMA για την μοντελοποίηση και ανάλυση μη-στάσίμων ταλαντώσεων επιδεικνύεται και πειραματικά μέσω εφαρμογής στην οποία πραγματοποιείται επιτυχής εξαγωγή των δυναμικών χαρακτηριστικών μιας εργαστηριακής χρονικά μεταβαλλόμενης κατασκευής. Στη συνέχεια, η διατριβή εστιάζει στην αναζήτηση ακριβέστερων εκτιμητριών, καθώς και στην ασυμπτωτική ανάλυση των ιδιοτήτων των εκτιμητριών «γενικών» (όχι αναγκαστικά περιοδικά μεταβαλλόμενων) μοντέλων FS-TAR/TARMA. Συγκεκριμένα, εξετάζονται οι περιπτώσεις των εκτιμητριών σταθμισμένων ελαχίστων τετραγώνων [Weighted Least Squares (WLS)], μέγιστης πιθανοφάνειας [Maximum Likelihood (ML)], καθώς και μια εκτιμήτρια πολλαπλών σταδίων [Multi Stage (MS)], η οποία αναπτύσσεται στην παρούσα διατριβή και είναι ασυμπτωτικά ισοδύναμη με την εκτιμήτρια ML ενώ ταυτόχρονα χαρακτηρίζεται από μειωμένη υπολογιστική πολυπλοκότητα. Στη διατριβή αποδεικνύεται η συνέπεια (consistency) των εκτιμητριών αυτών και εξάγεται η ασυμπτωτική κατανομή (asymptotic distribution) τους. Παράλληλα, αναπτύσσεται μια συνεπής εκτιμήτρια του ασυμπτωτικού πίνακα συνδιασποράς και μια μέθοδος για τον έλεγχο εγκυρότητας των μοντέλων FS-TAR/TARMA. Η ορθότητα των αποτελεσμάτων της ασυμπτωτικής ανάλυσης επιβεβαιώνεται μέσω μελετών Monte Carlo. / The thesis studies the problem of non-stationary random vibration modeling and analysis based on available measurements of the vibration signal via Functional Series Time-dependent AutoRegressive / AutoRegressive Moving Average (FS-TAR/ TARMA) models. The aims of the thesis include the assessment of the applicability of FS-TAR/TARMA methods for the modeling and analysis of non-stationary random vibration, as well as their comparison with alternative time-domain parametric methods. In addition, significant attention has been paid to the FS-TAR/TARMA estimation problem and to the theoretical asymptotic analysis of the estimators. A critical overview and comparison of time-domain, parametric, non-stationary random vibration modeling and analysis methods is firstly presented, where the high potential of FS-TAR/TARMA methods is demonstrated. In the following, a number of issues concerning the FS-TAR/TARMA model (parameter) estimation and model structure selection are considered. The effectiveness of the FS-TARMA methods for non-stationary random vibration modeling and analysis is experimentally demonstrated, through their application for the recovery of the dynamical characteristics of a time-varying bridge-like laboratory structure. In the sequel, the thesis focuses on the asymptotic analysis of “general” (that is not necessarily periodically evolving) FS-TAR/TARMA estimators. In particular, the Weighted Least Squares (WLS) and Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimators are both investigated, while a Multi Stage (MS) estimator, that approximates the ML estimator at reduced complexity, is developed. The consistency of the considered estimators is established and their asymptotic distribution is extracted. Furthermore, a consistent estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix is formulated and an FS-TAR/TARMA model validation method is proposed. The validity of the theoretical asymptotic analysis results is assessed through several Monte Carlo studies.
49

When is Electric Freight Cost Competitive? : Computational modeling and simulation of total cost of ownership for electric truck fleets / När är elektrisk varutransport kostnadskonkurrenskraftig? : Beräkningsmodellering och simulering av total ägandekostnad för elektriska lastbilsflottor

Zackrisson, Anton January 2023 (has links)
Battery electric trucks (BETs) offer environmental benefits in terms of reduced carbon emissions and enhanced energy efficiency but have been challenged with economic viability compared to conventional internal combustion engine trucks (ICETs) caused by substantial acquisition costs, limited charging infrastructure, and concerns regarding range and payload capacity.  Previous studies focus on TCO at the vehicle or policy level but overlook the system and firm-level impacts. Operational aspects like vehicle utilization, battery utilization, charging planning, and route optimization are often ignored, potentially underestimating electric freight cost-competitiveness.The research gap does not address the practical needs of fleet operators, especially in scenarios where charging infrastructure is lacking. There is therefore a need to consider the complex system level interactions, market dynamics, technology developments, and operational processes involved in freight shipping. By applying a decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) framework, this study enables informed decisions in unpredictable scenarios, bridging the gap between strategic choices like battery capacity and operational optimization like route planning. This study identifies the most significant factors that affect the TCO of BET fleets and cost-competitiveness relative to ICET fleets, taking into account market-operational interfaces between unpredictable market dynamics and operational processes such as stochastic demand and feature selection from a strategic and operational perspective. 40 tonne truck-trailers for freight distribution networks with distances up to 250 km are considered in the study.  A TCO model of BET and ICET fleets was developed taking into account vehicle route optimization, vehicle selection, and vehicle utilization which was then programmatically iterated by sampling and simulating optimized vehicle routes for a total of 220 224 iterations. The parameter space was screened and reduced with Feature Scoring using Extra Trees approximation of 1st order Sobol Indices. The reduced parameter space was then sampled using Sobol sampling to conduct a Sobol Global Variance decomposition Analysis of TCO, TCO delta, and service level in order to identify the most significant factors affecting BET fleet TCO and cost-competitiveness.To identify cost-competitive scenarios, the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) was used to identify parameter sub spaces to determine scenarios where BET fleets have a lower TCO than ICET fleets. Further visual analysis was done using linear and polynomial regression and kernel density estimation. The analysis shows that both TCO and cost-competitiveness of BETs are primarily affected by shipment demand, distance between distribution center and delivery sites, and battery size, and that a trade-off is made between cost-competitiveness and service level. The results show that cost-competitiveness of electric freight scales with demand, with larger fleets being better able to optimize routing and shipment allocation; balancing the shipment demand to minimize charging times that otherwise would make the fleet less competitive than their fossil-fuel counterparts. This, paired together with higher degrees of vehicle utilization and appropriate battery sizing, allow for electric freight to be cost-competitive even for long-haul distances up to 250 km.  Furthermore, optimization of the Electric Vehicle Routing Problem (E-VRP) with shifts and time windows is shown to have a highly significant effect when minimizing TCO on a fleet level, with the vast majority of optimal ICET routes not being optimal for BETs.The benefits of E-VRP optimization scales with demand and fleet size, indicating that large-scale electrification is required to make BETs cost-competitive.Electrification of road freight is therefore highly contingent on effective route planning and charging scheduling with E-VRP optimization in order to be cost-competitive, which has not been considered in previous literature. Thus previous literature have therefore likely underestimated the cost-competitiveness of electric freight, particularly at medium-long haul distances. / Battery electric trucks (BETs), även kända som batterielektriska lastbilar, erbjuder miljömässiga fördelar genom minskade koldioxidutsläpp och förbättrad energieffektivitet. Men de har utmanats när det kommer till ekonomisk konkurrenskraft jämfört med konventionella lastbilar med förbränningsmotor (ICETs) på grund av höga inköpskostnader, begränsad laddinfrastruktur och oro över räckvidd och lastkapacitet. Tidigare studier har fokuserat på TCO (totala ägandekostnader) på fordon- eller policynivå men har inte betraktat TCO på nätverksnivå och från det enskilda företagets perspektiv. Operativa aspekter som fordonssutnyttjande, batteriutnyttjande, laddningsplanering och ruttoptimisering ignoreras ofta, vilket potentiellt leder till en underskattning av elektrisk frakts kostnadskonkurrenskraft. Forskningsluckan tar inte upp de praktiska behoven hos fordonsflottoperatörer, särskilt i scenarier där laddinfrastrukturen är bristfällig. Det finns därför ett behov av att granska komplexa systemnivåinteraktioner, marknadens dynamik, teknikutveckling och operativa processer som är involverade i godstransport. Genom att tillämpa \textit{decision-making under deep uncertainty} (DMDU) möjliggör denna studie informerade beslut i scenarier präglade av osäkerhet och studerar interaktionseffecter mellan strategiska val som batterikapacitet och operativ optimering som t.ex.\ ruttplanering. Denna studie identifierar de mest betydande faktorer som påverkar TCO för BET-flottor och deras kostnadskonkurrenskraft jämfört med ICET-flottor, med beaktande av gränssnitten mellan marknadsdynamik och operativa processer såsom stokastisk efterfrågan och urval av funktioner ur såväl strategisk som operativ synvinkel. 40-ton lastbilssläp för nätverk med avstånd upp till 250 km beaktas inom omfånget för studien. En TCO-modell för BET- och ICET-flottor utvecklades med hänsyn till ruttoptimering, fordonsval och fordonsutnyttjande, vilket sedan programmässigt itererades genom provtagning och simulering av optimerade fordonsrutter för sammanlagt 220 224 iterationer. Parameterrummet granskades och minskades med hjälp av funktionsskattning med hjälp av Extra Trees-approximation av Sobol-indices av första ordningen. Det reducerade parameterrummet provtogs sedan med Sobol-provtagningsmetod för att genomföra en global variansdekomponering av TCO, TCO-delta och servicenivå för att identifiera de mest betydande faktorerna som påverkar BET-flottans TCO och kostnadskonkurrenskraft. För att identifiera kostnadskonkurrenskraftiga scenarier användes Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) för att identifiera parametrarum som visar scenarier där BET-flottor har lägre TCO än ICET-flottor. Vidare utfördes visuell analys med linjär och polynomisk regression samt kärnskattning. Analysen visar at kostnadskonkurrenskraft för tunga elektriska fordon primärt påverkas av efterfrågan, köravstånder och batteristorlek, och att det görs en avvägning mellan kostnadskonkurrenskraft och servicenivå. Resultaten visar at kostnadskonkurrenskraft ökar i takt med efterfrågan, då större flottor kan mer fördelaktigt optimera rutter och allokering av leveranser till varje fordon genom att transportefterfrågan balanseras sådan att tiden för laddning minimeras, vilket hade annars gjort de elektriska flottorna mindre konkurrenskraftiga gentemot fossildrivna flottor av tunga fordon. Detta i samband med högre utnyttjandegrad av fordonen och val av rätt batteristorlek gjör att elektrisk godstransport kan vara kostnadskonkurrenskraftig även vid längre körsträckor upp till 250 km. Vidare visar ruttoptimering för BETs (E-VRP) sig vara av stor betydelse när det gäller att minimera TCO på flottnivå, medan majoriteten av optimala ICET-rutter inte är optimala för BETs.Fördelarna med E-VRP optimering skalar med ökande efterfrågan och flottstorlek, vilket tyder på att storskalig elektrifiering behövs för att göra BETs kostnadskonkurrenskraftigaElektrifiering av godstransport är därför starkt beroende av effektiv rutt- och laddningsplanering med E-VRP-optimering. Tidigare litteratur har sannolikt underskattat kostnadskonkurrenskraften för elektrisk godstransport, särskilt vid medellånga och långa transportavstånd.
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Contribution à la prise en compte des aspects thermiques des machines électriques dans un environnement mécatronique / Contribution to taking into consideration thermal aspects of electric machines in mechatronics environment

Assaad, Bassel 11 December 2015 (has links)
Les machines électriques jouent un rôle très important dans la conversion d'énergie dans plusieurs applications et domaines. Les contraintes thermiques jouent ainsi un rôle indispensable dans la conception des machines électriques de plus en plus petites et performantes. En effet, la performance des machines électriques est limitée par les températures maximales admissibles dans certaines zones critiques telles que le bobinage, les aimants permanents et les roulements. Deux approches principales peuvent être utilisées pour étudier le comportement thermique de la machine: la méthode nodale ou le circuit à constantes localisées ou les modèles numériques. Dans notre étude, nous proposons d'appliquer la méthode nodale sur une machine électrique intégrée dans un environnement mécatronique complexe. Le modèle thermique développé de la machine est ainsi présenté avec ses différents éléments. En effet, un modèle précis dépend fortement de plusieurs paramètres thermiques tels que les coefficients d'échange convectif, les conductances de contact, les conductivités équivalentes du bobinage, et autres paramètres. En conséquence, des techniques d'analyse de sensibilité sont ensuite appliquées sur le modèle thermique pour identifier les paramètres d'influence significative sur les températures de la machine ainsi que pour la réduction de ce modèle. Ensuite, nous appliquons deux méthodologies d'identification des paramètres thermiques incertains sont développées et appliquées afin de recaler le modèle thermique de la machine. Cette étape permet la validation de ce modèle par rapport à des mesures thermiques sur une machine synchrone à aimants permanents internes installée sur un banc de caractérisation de machine électriques. Finalement, nous intégrons le modèle recalé dans une approche système mécatronique comportant les lois de commande de la machine ainsi que son convertisseur. Ceci permettra ainsi d'étudier l'influence de la température d'une machine électrique sur le système mécatronique complet. / Electric machines play an important role in power conversion in several applications and fields. With the increasing demand for designing lighter and more efficient machines and optimizing the existing structures, thermal analysis becomes a necessary; in fact, the performance of electric machines islimited by the allowable temperatures in many critical components like windings, permanent magnetsand bearings. Two main approaches can be employed in order to study the machine thermal behavior : the lumped parameter thermal network (LPTN) or numerical models. Considering low-computationtime-consuming and the possibility to be integrated in a mechatronics system design, the LPTN method is considered in our study. The latter is mainly applied on electric machine integrated in a complex mechatronics environment. The thermal network is presented along with the definition of the principal elements constituting this network. In fact, an accurate and reliable network strongly depends on many critical parameters like heat transfer coefficients, interface gaps, impregnation goodness, among others. For this reason, different sensitivity analysis techniques are carried out in order to, first, identify the significance of uncertainties in the evaluation of these parameters on machine temperatures and second, to reduce the thermal network. Next, we propose two optimization algorithm-based identification methodologies in order to calibrate results of the thermal network with measured temperatures obtained from a test-bench of a permanent magnet based integrated starter-generator machine. The calibrated model is then integrated in a mechatronics system consisting of an electric model of the electric machine, along with its control strategy and the power converter. This final study allows us to evaluate the impact of the machine temperature rise on the mechatronic system.

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