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我們在此文中檢視了股市流動性的動能效果，並將此效果連結到相對應股票的報酬表現上。我們發現過去六個月平均流動性較高的股票，在未來三年中也會具有較高的流動性。此外，我們發現買入較高流動性的股票，賣出流動性較低的股票，會有正的報酬。我們希望此研究能夠幫助投資人獲取更多有用的資訊。 / We examine the predictability of liquidity, the momentum effect in liquidity, and we also would like to link this effect to expected stock returns. We find that stocks with high liquidity in the past six month will be traded with high liquidity in the future (within 3 years) and that all of the zero-cost portfolios, which buy high liquidity stocks and sell low liquidity stocks, have positive returns. We hope the results in this study will help uninformed trader to obtain more information in the stock market.

<p>This thesis investigates the profitability of the momentum strategy in the Swedish stock market. The momentum strategy is an investment strategy where past winners are bought and past losers are sold short. In this paper Swedish stocks are analyzed during the period 1999 – 2007 with the approach first used by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). The results indicate that momentum investing is profitable on the Swedish market. The main contribution to the profits is derived from investing in winners while the losers in most cases do not contribute at all to total profits. The profits remain after correcting for transaction costs for longer termed strategies while they diminish for the shorter termed ones. Compared to the market index, buying past winners yield an excess return while short selling of losers tend to make index investing more profitable. The analysis also shows that momentum can not be explained by the systematic risk of the individual stocks. The evidence in support of a momentum effect presented in this thesis also implies that predictable price patterns can be used to make excess returns; this contradicts the efficient market hypothesis.</p>

This thesis investigates the profitability of the momentum strategy in the Swedish stock market. The momentum strategy is an investment strategy where past winners are bought and past losers are sold short. In this paper Swedish stocks are analyzed during the period 1999 – 2007 with the approach first used by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). The results indicate that momentum investing is profitable on the Swedish market. The main contribution to the profits is derived from investing in winners while the losers in most cases do not contribute at all to total profits. The profits remain after correcting for transaction costs for longer termed strategies while they diminish for the shorter termed ones. Compared to the market index, buying past winners yield an excess return while short selling of losers tend to make index investing more profitable. The analysis also shows that momentum can not be explained by the systematic risk of the individual stocks. The evidence in support of a momentum effect presented in this thesis also implies that predictable price patterns can be used to make excess returns; this contradicts the efficient market hypothesis.

Momentum, or the basic idea of the momentum effect in finance, is that there is a tendency for rising asset prices to continue rising, while the falling prices continue to fall. As such, a momentum strategy is based on the idea that previous returns will predict future returns. In order to follow this line of thought, a momentum strategy is generally based on buying past winners and taking short positions in past losers. This quantitative study addresses the phenomenon of momentum crashes, which is a moment in time when a momentum strategy fails, and past losers outperform past winners. In our study we are setting out to study the momentum crash phenomenon during the years of 2006-2012 on NASDAQ OMX Stockholm, focusing specifically on the Small- and Large Cap segments. As we intend to explore the concept of momentum crashes as thoroughly as possible, we will also be researching momentum itself during this time period, as these two concepts are inevitably intertwined. In order to do this, we will be applying commonly used portfolio construction methods used in previous momentum research. These portfolios will be based on past winners and past losers, and their performance will then be tracked for different lengths of time, which will allow us to identify points in time where momentum crashes have occurred. What we found in our research was that, while we gathered data indicative of momentum trends during our chosen time period, we could not prove that momentum existed to any statistically meaningful degree. As for momentum crashes, we identified many different points in time where the past-loser portfolios outperformed the past-winner portfolios, thus resulting in negative winner-minus-loser portfolios and momentum crashes. The most interesting aspect of these findings was that the highest frequencies of momentum crashes were found in the years of 2008 and 2009, where we made the most negative winner-minus-loser portfolio observations. This finding is in line with similar research on other populations, as momentum crashes are theorized to occur at a higher frequency during times of market stress and high volatility. Furthermore, we also made some interesting connections between our findings and behavioral finance; we identified certain patterns which could be indicative of a relationship between the two. As for the research gap and the ultimate contribution of this study, we have increased the knowledge, understanding and awareness of momentum crashes in Sweden, and we have shown during which times these are likely to occur in a Swedish context. Additionally, we have also increased the general knowledge of momentum by exploring it from a Swedish perspective.

Stationarity is an essential property to portfolio return in the past statistical arbitrage strategy, this article uses Neo-75 rule, momentum effect, properties as independent and identically distribution and stationarity in error term, in one asset and in the very short holding period. The result in out sample period owning positive cumulative return. The finding suggests individual investors use this strategy in higher efficiency market to avoid invalidation in our model. This article surveyed CAC40, DJI, HangSeng, NASDAQ, Nikkei225, Shanghai and TWII indices. All the excess returns in out sample periods indicate they are exclude weak form of efficient market.

The study is based on the study of Jegadeesh and Titman (1993, 2001) which found evidence of succesfull trading strategies which yielded significant positive abnormal returns by exploiting a momentum pattern in stock prices. The purpose of this study is to contribute with empirical results to the discussions of efficient markets, momentum effects and behavioral finance by providing evidence from the Swedish stock market between the years 1998 and 2013. The conclusion is that there exists a Momentum Effect on the Swedish stock market. The utilization of momentum strategies yields significant positive abnormal returns. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is a model which might hold in the long-term, but shows limitations in the short-term. The implications of the results of this study are that short-term investor behavior and momentum profits might be partially explained by behavioral finance models but the origin of the momentum profits need to be further evaluated.

Bakgrund: Målet med de flesta investeringar är att nå en hög avkastning till låg risk. Tidigare forskning har identifierat möjligheter till att överträffa marknaden vilket motsäger hypotesen om den effektiva marknaden. Investeringar i småbolag har blivit alltmer attraktivt de senaste åren vilket lyfter frågan angående hur en investering i dessa aktier kan genomföras på ett framgångsrikt sätt. Småbolagsaktier, och framförallt de allra minsta aktierna sett till marknadsvärde, förknippas ofta med högre risk. Detta medför att det är av relevans att undersöka huruvida en riskjusterad överavkastning är möjlig vid en applicering av dessa med befintliga investeringsstrategier. Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera huruvida det existerar en småbolagseffekt på den svenska aktiemarknaden mellan 2007-2019. Studien syftar även till att undersöka om det går att generera riskjusterad överavkastning vid investeringar i småbolagsaktier genom att kombinera dessa med alternativa investeringsstrategier som momentumeffekten samt relativvärdering i form av bolag med låga EV/EBITDA- multiplar. Metod: Studien har genomförts med en kvantitativ metod och en deduktiv ansats. Nio portföljer har konstruerats utefter olika bolagsstorlekar samt olika investeringsstrategier under tidsperioden 2007-2019 på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Dessa portföljer har sedan utvärderats sett till både avkastning samt riskjusterad avkastning för att slutligen testas statistiskt genom parata t-test. Slutsats: En småbolagseffekt kunde inte observeras på den svenska aktiemarknaden under den studerade tidsperioden. De portföljer som baserades på bolagen med lägst marknadsvärde presterade en signifikant lägre avkastning än jämförelseindexet. Vid en applicering av momentumeffekten samt låga EV/EBITDA- multiplar på småbolag kunde däremot fyra av fyra portföljer observeras generera en riskjusterad överavkastning relativt jämförelseindexet. Denna överavkastning kunde dock inte säkerställas statistiskt och skulle därmed kunna vara slumpmässig. / Background: The goal of most investments is to achieve a high return at a low risk. Previous research has identified opportunities to exceed the market, which contradicts the efficient-market hypothesis. Investments in small enterprises have become increasingly popular in recent years, which raises the question of how an investment on these markets can be done successfully. Small company shares, and especially the smallest shares in terms of market value, are often associated with higher risk. This means that a study that investigates whether a risk-adjusted excess return is possible with the application of existing investment strategies is of relevance. Purpose: The aim of this study is to analyze whether there exists a small firm effect on the Swedish stock market between the years 2007-2019. The study also aims to investigate whether it is possible to generate risk-adjusted excess returns when investing in small companies and combine these investments with alternative strategies such as the momentum effect and relative valuation in terms of companies with low EV / EBITDA multiples. Methodology: The study was conducted with a quantitative methodology and a deductive design. Nine portfolios were designed with different company sizes and based on different investment strategies during the period 2007-2019 on the Swedish stock market. These portfolios have then been evaluated in terms of both returns and risk-adjusted returns and the results were then finally statistically tested through the implement of parwise t-tests. Conclusion: A small firm effect could not be observed on the Swedish stock market during the examined time period. The portfolios based on the companies with the lowest market value generated a significantly lower return than the benchmark index. Meanwhile, when applying the momentum effect and the strategy of low EV/EBITDA multiples on small companies, four out of four portfolios were found to generate a risk-adjusted excess return relative to the benchmark index. However, this excess return could not be statistically proven and could thus be the result of randomness.

O trabalho tem como objetivo identificar a existência do efeito momento, de comprar ações com alto desempenho relativo no passado e vender as de baixo desempenho relativo no passado, e do efeito contrário, de comprar ações com baixo desempenho relativo no passado e vender as de alto desempenho relativo no passado. A análise considerou 662 ações negociadas na BM&FBOVESPA entre julho de 1994 e junho de 2015, considerando quatro períodos de formação (3, 6, 9 e 12 meses) e seis de manutenção (3, 6, 9 e 12, 18 e 24 meses) das carteiras. A metodologia adotada para o efeito momento utiliza a abordagem de Jegadeesh e Titman (1993) e, para o efeito contrário, optou-se por De Bondt e Thaler (1985). A partir da identificação das carteiras vencedoras e perdedoras, passou-se a calcular as diferenças dos retornos acumulados mensais com uma janela móvel para expurgar o viés de seleção. Das 24 estratégias analisadas, verificou-se que apenas uma não apresentou significância para o efeito momento e rejeitou-se a hipótese de existência do efeito contrário. Constatou-se o efeito momento em 23 estratégias, sendo que duas apresentaram desempenho médio mensal superior ao Ibovespa no mesmo período, nas carteiras \"12x3\" e \"9x6\", respectivamente, de 1,60% e 1,48%. As principais contribuições do trabalho foram a adoção de uma carteira móvel para a avaliação do desempenho das carteiras, o amplo período utilizado na análise e o grande número de ativos, o que proporciona maior robustez aos resultados encontrados. / The work aims to find momentum effect, that buys stocks with relative high return in the past and sells stocks with relative poor return in the past, and the contrarian effect, that buys stocks with relative poor return in the past and sells stocks with relative high performance in the past. The analysis included 662 stocks traded on BM&FBOVESPA between July 1994 and June 2015, considering four formation periods (3, 6, 9 and 12 months) and six holding periods (3, 6, 9 and 12, 18 and 24 months) for the portfolios. The methodology adopted for momentum effect uses the theory of Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) and the contrarian effect uses De Bondt and Thaler (1985) theory. From the identification of winners\' portfolios and losers\' portfolios, it was calculated the differences in monthly cumulative returns with a rolling window to purge the selection bias. Of the 24 strategies analyzed, it was found that only one has no significance for momentum effect, and the hypothesis of contrarian effect was rejected. Momentum effect was found in 23 strategies, and two had average monthly performance superior to Ibovespa in the same period in the \"12x3\" portfolios and \"9x6\" portfolios, respectively, 1.60% and 1.48%. The main contributions of this study was to adopt a rolling window for evaluating the performance of the portfolios, the extended period used in the analysis and the large number of stocks, which provides greater robustness to the results found

O trabalho tem como objetivo identificar a existência do efeito momento, de comprar ações com alto desempenho relativo no passado e vender as de baixo desempenho relativo no passado, e do efeito contrário, de comprar ações com baixo desempenho relativo no passado e vender as de alto desempenho relativo no passado. A análise considerou 662 ações negociadas na BM&FBOVESPA entre julho de 1994 e junho de 2015, considerando quatro períodos de formação (3, 6, 9 e 12 meses) e seis de manutenção (3, 6, 9 e 12, 18 e 24 meses) das carteiras. A metodologia adotada para o efeito momento utiliza a abordagem de Jegadeesh e Titman (1993) e, para o efeito contrário, optou-se por De Bondt e Thaler (1985). A partir da identificação das carteiras vencedoras e perdedoras, passou-se a calcular as diferenças dos retornos acumulados mensais com uma janela móvel para expurgar o viés de seleção. Das 24 estratégias analisadas, verificou-se que apenas uma não apresentou significância para o efeito momento e rejeitou-se a hipótese de existência do efeito contrário. Constatou-se o efeito momento em 23 estratégias, sendo que duas apresentaram desempenho médio mensal superior ao Ibovespa no mesmo período, nas carteiras \"12x3\" e \"9x6\", respectivamente, de 1,60% e 1,48%. As principais contribuições do trabalho foram a adoção de uma carteira móvel para a avaliação do desempenho das carteiras, o amplo período utilizado na análise e o grande número de ativos, o que proporciona maior robustez aos resultados encontrados. / The work aims to find momentum effect, that buys stocks with relative high return in the past and sells stocks with relative poor return in the past, and the contrarian effect, that buys stocks with relative poor return in the past and sells stocks with relative high performance in the past. The analysis included 662 stocks traded on BM&FBOVESPA between July 1994 and June 2015, considering four formation periods (3, 6, 9 and 12 months) and six holding periods (3, 6, 9 and 12, 18 and 24 months) for the portfolios. The methodology adopted for momentum effect uses the theory of Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) and the contrarian effect uses De Bondt and Thaler (1985) theory. From the identification of winners\' portfolios and losers\' portfolios, it was calculated the differences in monthly cumulative returns with a rolling window to purge the selection bias. Of the 24 strategies analyzed, it was found that only one has no significance for momentum effect, and the hypothesis of contrarian effect was rejected. Momentum effect was found in 23 strategies, and two had average monthly performance superior to Ibovespa in the same period in the \"12x3\" portfolios and \"9x6\" portfolios, respectively, 1.60% and 1.48%. The main contributions of this study was to adopt a rolling window for evaluating the performance of the portfolios, the extended period used in the analysis and the large number of stocks, which provides greater robustness to the results found