Orientador: José Carlos de Souza Braga / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-17T14:14:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Teixeira_LucasAzeredodaSilva_M.pdf: 2429408 bytes, checksum: 63f83d0828c01c76f9abcb7f264cb891 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 / Resumo: Esta dissertação discute as origens do processo que mais chamou atenção na economia norte-americana, antes da eclosão da crise do subprime: o crescente endividamento do consumidor. Partindo da idéia de que este "modelo" da economia americana não poderia ser imitado por nenhum outro país, buscam-se as origens das assimetrias do sistema monetário internacional no ocaso de Bretton Woods e no surgimento do atual padrão monetário internacional. Em seguida, é exposta a trajetória de endividamento/enriquecimento líquido dos macrossetores institucionais da economia norte americana, para, desta forma, mostrar um dos principais fatos estilizados da economia norte-americana: o crescente endividamento das famílias a partir dos anos 1980. Estas mantiveram, de forma geral, um padrão de gastos menor que o fluxo de rendas, de modo a terem um superávit financeiro (enriquecimento líquido) até então. A partir do início dos anos 1980, este superávit reduziu-se paulatinamente, devido ao crescente endividamento, alcançando valores negativos e crescentes, na segunda metade dos anos 1990. Segundo a hipótese adotada neste trabalho, as causas deste endividamento são encontradas na mudança na distribuição de renda (aumento da concentração) e nas desregulamentações e inovações financeiras, que se desenvolvem a partir do fim dos anos 1970. Tendo em vista que este aspecto vem sendo bem explorado na literatura especializada, a dissertação concentra sua explicação na mudança no padrão de distribuição de renda. Analisando por esse prisma, chega-se a conclusão que não se trata de endividamento das famílias, ou dos consumidores, mas, mais especificamente, dos trabalhadores norte-americanos, que tiveram que se endividar para financiar seus gastos, em um contexto de salários reais estagnados. Por fim, os rumos da economia norte-americana pós-crise são brevemente avaliados / Abstract: The purpose of this dissertation is to discuss the origins of a critical process in the North American economy before the subprime crisis, namely, the increasing debt of households. Considering that north-american economic "model" couldn't be copied by any other country, the origins of the asymmetries within the international monetary system(s) are pursued in the Bretton Woods case, as well as, the development of the current international monetary pattern. Then the net-borrowing path of institutional macro sectors are presented as contributing factors containing strong evidence for one of the more significant and stylized facts of North American economy, i.e. the growing debt of primarily American households since the 1980s. Prior to this, spending, in general, was notably less than their annual income flow, resulting in a financial surplus. Beginning in the 1980s, this surplus had been gradually reduced due to an increasing indebtedness and, in the second half of the 1990s, a mounting deficit was introduced. It is argued that the causes of this indebtedness are alterations in income distribution (an increased concentration of income) and the process of financial deregulation and innovation, developed in the late 1970s. Considering that the latter has previously been explored in great detail, this particular examination explores the changes on income distribution pattern. Based on this perspective, it is concluded that the indebtedness does not come from families or households in general but, more specifically, from North American workers, who had to finance their spending through an on-going stagnation, or even deterioration, of the real wages at their disposal. Further, the direction of the North American economy after the crisis is evaluated in the contexts of these findings / Mestrado / Ciências Economicas / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

This diploma thesis is trying to describe implications of current financial crisis by the Postkeynesian and Austrian view. The introduction section focuses on course of events in the United States of America after the September 11 attacks on World Trade Center till outbreak of mortgage crisis in 2007. After 9/11 the Federal Reserve System started to unprecedentedly increase the money supply. Large amount of these new resources flowed to the real estate market. Incurred conditions and implications to other financial sectors till the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 are thoroughly studied. The causes of the crisis are being looked through the Postkeynesian and Austrian perspective in this thesis, because the major representatives of these two economic branches were able to predict the crisis coming. By using the works of the Postkeynesian and Austrian economists, possible solutions how to avoid this negative economic event in the future are being mentioned in the final part of this diploma thesis. Their suggestions and proposals contrast each other. Nevertheless I reach certain recommendation here, which shows government's interventions are inappropriate and functionless. These interventions have also harmful influence on the free-market economy function. Moreover they tend to deepen recessions. These arguments are being demonstrated on real cases.

This thesis aims to explain the underlying causes and evolution of the global financial crisis, starting from U.S. mortgage crisis to the European debt crisis. Because the causes mentioned above had both fundamental and psychological character - sufficient attention is placed on analyzing of psychological aspects, which contributed to the development of the financial crisis. The psychological component of the work is based on several selected economics theories conclusions (T.Veblen and The theory of Leisure Class, A.Marshall and The principles of Economics, V.Pareto and The circulation of elite, J.M.Keynes and The market psychology), also on some economic psychology and behavioral economics theories (information asymmetry and decision-making process) and psychogenetics.

This diploma thesis focuses on financial crisis from 2007 and its impact on Czech economy. Special attention is given to four macroeconomic indicators in Czech Republic and their transformation during this crisis and after it. First part focuses on definition and description of characteristics and stages of business cycles, first in general and then specifically when talking about 2007's economic crisis. Subsequent practical part analyses specific economic repercussions stemming from the crisis, pointedly in macroeconomic indicators, state budget and mortgage market. In the final part of this thesis, the knowledge and findings about these areas, which accurately depict overall status of Czech economy during the crisis and after it are evaluated and commented on. This thesis may be used by humanities' teachers to illustrate the functioning of business cycles and their impacts on economies. KEYWORDS: Czech economy, business cycle, trade cycle, economic crisis, mortgage crisis, globalization

過去三、四十年來世界各地發生金融危機的頻率較從前高出許多，探究原因後可以發現，與各國陸續開放金融自由化以及國際金融市場快速成長有極大的關係。除此之外，在各國中，金融危機的發生通常具備一些共同特徵，諸如危機發生時會導致資金外流、匯率大幅貶值、股市重挫、產出減少、進出口減少…等影響。因此，面對這一波次級房貸風暴，本研究也即將檢視美國在總體經濟數據上各方面的表現，希望能利用1970年以來已開發國家和開發中國家歷年來所發生的貨幣、銀行危機下所代表的各種總體經濟數據，經過轉化整理後，透過Logistic迴歸模型建立一個迴歸方程式，以了解金融危機的發生與實質匯率、進出口…等其他解釋變數之間的關聯，並利用此模型探測現階段次級房貸風暴對美國可能引發金融危機的機率值，以探討其合理性。 / We find that the frequencies of the financial crises are higher for the past forty years in the world. It is due to the financial liberalization and international financial markets which grow rapidly. Besides, financial crises usually company with some common characteristics such as capital outflow, the depreciation of the foreign exchange, the shock of the stock market, the decreasing of the production and so on. Therefore, in order to understand this financial crisis of the subprime mortgage, this thesis surveys the economic data of developed countries and developing countries from 1970s and figures out the performances of these countries under balance-of -payments crises or banking crisis. We use the logistic regression model and transform the data to construct a regression model. After understanding the relationship between the explaining variables, we use this model to predict the probability of possible financial crisis in U.S. under the subprime mortgage crisis and then discuss the rationality of those predicted values.

This thesis analyzes the economic crises of recent years through the lens of the Regulation Theory. It focuses on the Greek Crisis of 2009 and the Turkish Financial Crises of 2000 and 2001. Furthermore it also analyzes the crisis in the United States to give a better grounding for the current crises. The thesis tries to answer the questions of whether or not Regulation Theory proves to be a sufficient tool for analyzing these crises and whether or not these fit the definition of crisis that the Regulation Theory puts forward. It is argued that Regulation Theory explains to a great extent both the causes and the structure of the crises.

The financial crisis in the USA is due to its great consequences still considered to be current topic. Its causes were discussed and analyzed by many researchers, but mostly from the financial point of view. This thesis takes different approach and identifies the role of the moral hazard in the pre-crisis period. Moral hazard is very often underestimated and for many people uninteresting factor. Therefor, the thesis is divided into four parts, which present the theoretical background of moral hazard and bring up the importance and constant presence of it in today's world. The main part of this work is last chapter, which analyzes moral hazard in the causes of the financial crisis. Moral hazard played key role in the pre-crisis period when it was present at all possible levels deforming the behavior of market players and causing the market failure. The deformation had mostly form of excessive risk-taking, unfavourable financial products and abuse of the information asymmetry. Very specific and dangerous kind of moral hazard is associated with the government interventions such as Greenspan doctrine or Too big to fail policy. It is because of its systematic character, when opposed to the moral hazard in the private sector is not required the presence of information asymmetry.

The subject of the diploma thesis is to evaluate the development in post-crisis years and to determine the impacts that affect the current financial investment environment in the USA but also its future and create the prerequisites for other risks, which the market can affect in the next perspective and influence the global development. On this basis, a portfolio of the mutual fund will be drawn up, according to the assignment of its manager with an alternative investment component, which can adequately complement it in the current period of low interest rates.

不同股市的報酬關聯隨時間動態改變，本研究欲了解近期美國、台灣與亞太地區的中國大陸、香港、日本及韓國的報酬連動關係，並進一步觀察次級房貸風暴期間美股對這些地區的關聯改變趨勢。本論文採用灰色理論與時間序列兩種方法，實證發現次級房貸風暴發生期間，台股及亞太地區主要指數不論在報酬率或是報酬率波動性受美股影響的程度大多增強。 實證結果顯示，在風暴期間的報酬率傳導關係，亞太以韓國影響台股最顯著，美股則全面影響亞太指數；在報酬率波動性溢傳上，亞太以日本、美股以道瓊工業影響台股最強，台股則是電子類股被美股影響最重，但營建類股在與美股或是亞太指數的關聯趨勢變化卻最明顯。另外，灰關聯分析對時間序列檢定的關聯組合可以提供互補的關聯強弱關係說明，且具有相當的正確性。 / Connections between stock markets are dynamically changing, and it affects investor's transnational investment portfolio. We focus on the relationships of stock markets among the United States, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, China and Hong Kong, and eager to understand the connection tendency between Untied States and Asian-Pacific area during the subprime mortgage crisis period. The identified research methods are time series and grey theory, including Granger causality test, GARCH model and grey relational analysis. We find out the returns and volatility in Asian-Pacific stock markets were all affected increasly by U.S. market during the subprime mortgage crisis. The main empirical results are as follows: In the relationships of returns, Korea affects Taiwan mostly in the Asian-Pacific area, and U.S. market affects all the others entirely during the subprime crisis. In the relationships of volatility, Japan and Dow Jones index affects Taiwan deeply during the period; within all the Taiwan indexs, Electronic Sector Index was affected by the U.S. market mostly than others during the same period, but the connection tendency in the Construction Sector Index with other markets changes more obviously. Otherwise, grey relational analysis can provide complementary explainations as compared to time sereies in the strength of relationships, and the explainations are with plenty credibility.

美國次級房貸風暴自2007年7月爆發以來，除重創金融市場外，亦導致相關會計準則之修訂。本研究以我國金融業為對象，探討：（1）以公平價值認列之金融商品及相關金融資產負債之損益，其財務報導是否具有價值攸關性；（2）金融資產減損損失對投資人之影響是否重大；（3）可能產生減損損失之金融資產其財務報導是否具有價值攸關性；以及（4）財務會計準則第34號公報第二次修訂對投資人之影響為何。 / 本研究之主要發現如下：（1）以公平價值認列之金融商品具有價值攸關性，亦即其對投資人具有參考價值；（2）金融資產減損損失及無活絡市場之債券投資具有價值攸關性，金融資產減損損失增加時，會降低公司之價值，而影響投資人決策；以及（3）第34號公報第二次修訂之內容，對股價具有負向之解釋能力，亦即投資人並不認為金融商品重分類規定之放寬，有助於降低金融風暴對於金融業可能帶來的衝擊。 / Since the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis broke out in July, 2007, it not only inflicted heavy losses to global financial markets, but also caused changes in accounting standards. Using the financial industry in Taiwan as research sample, this study examines: (1) whether financial instruments measured at fair value and their reported gains and losses in the financial statements have value-relevance; (2) the influence of impairment losses of financial assets; (3) whether the financial instruments related to impairment losses of financial assets are value-relevant; and (3) the influence to investors before and after the Statements of Financial Account Standard (SFAS) No. 34 second revised. / This study’s major findings are as follows. The financial instruments measured at fair value are value-relevant and can provide incremental information to investors. Impairment losses on financial assets and non-active market investments also have value-relevance. If a company has more impairment losses on its financial assets, it may negatively affect the firm’s value and change investors’ decisions. As for the second revision of SFAS No. 34, it did not reverse investors’ expectations of the negative effect of the aforementioned financial crisis on the financial industry in Taiwan.