Multi-criteria decision aid has emerged from the operational research field as the answer given to a couple of important questions encountered in complex decisions problems. Firstly, as decision aiding tools, such methods do not replace the decision maker with a mathematical model, but support him to construct his solution by describing and evaluating his options. Secondly, instead of using a unique criterion capturing all aspects of the problem, in the multi-criteria decision aid methods one seeks to build multiple criteria, representing several points of view. This work explores the application of multi-criteria decision aid methods for optimising food chain countermeasure strategies after a radioactive release to the environment. The core of the thesis is dedicated to formulating general lines for the development of a multi-criteria decision aid model. This includes the definition of potential actions, construction of evaluation criteria and preference modelling and is essentially based on the results of a stakeholders’ process. The work is centred on the management of contaminated milk in order to provide a concrete focus and because of its importance as an ingestion pathway in short term after an accident. Among other issues, the public acceptance of milk countermeasures as a key evaluation criterion is analysed in detail. A comparison of acceptance based on stochastic dominance is proposed and, based on that, a countermeasures’ acceptance ranking is deduced. In order to assess “global preferences” taking into account all the evaluation criteria, an ordinal method is chosen. This method allows expressing the relative importance of criteria in a qualitative way instead of using, for instance, numerical weights. Some algorithms that can be used for robustness analysis are also proposed. This type of analysis is an alternative to sensitivity analysis in what concerns data uncertainty and imprecision and seeks to determine how and if a model result or conclusion obtained for a specific instance of a model’s parameters holds over the entire domain of acceptable values for these parameters. The integrated multi-criteria decision aid approach proposed makes use of outranking and interactive methodologies and is implemented and tested through a number of case studies and prototype tools.

<p>In the recent decades, therehave been frequent conflicts between groundwater waterresources and environmentally hazardous activities. Newmethodologies for aiding decision-making in groundwater impactassessment and protection areneeded and in which issues ofincreased awareness, better understanding of the groundwaterresources processes, and validation of predictive mathematicalmodels are addressed.</p><p>A framework fordecision–aid, based on predictive simulations that a)predicts the environmental impacts b) provides the totaleconomical value c) visualises the impacts and the groundwaterproperties and d) describes the uncertainties in the results isproposed herein. The framework can be applied in environmentalimpact assessments, strategic environmental assessments andprotection and management of water resources. The results ofthe model are used as feedback for determining new scenarios,depending on the required uncertainties, and if the plannedactivity is sustainable, and/or fulfils the legislative andpolicy measures. This framework is applied to a particular casestudy, Nybroåsen, in the south-eastern part of Sweden,where the highway E22 is constructed through the importantglaciofluvial esker aquifer, passing the protection zone of thewater supply for the Kalmar municipality.</p><p>The impacts from the new highwayand the existing road have been predicted by two-dimensionalphysically based time-variant flow and solute groundwatermodelling. The results, breakthrough curves of contaminantconcentration in wells and maps of concentration distributions,as well as travel times, flow paths, and capture zones forwells determined by particle tracking have been presented.</p><p>The constructed model of theNybroåsen study area was calibrated by comparing observedand simulated groundwater levels for 15 observation wells forten years of measurements. The model has been evaluated bothgraphically and numerically and the calibration target wasfulfilled for 13 of the 15 observation wells. The model workincludes investigations of the catchment information, a waterbalance study, simulation of the groundwater recharge,consideration of the unsaturated zone by a numerical columnsimulation, and sensitivity analysis.</p><p>From the sensitivity analysis ofthe flow and transport parameters, it has been shown that theuncertainties are mainly due to the hydraulic conductivity.Comparison of the derived conductivity from the steady-stateautomatic calibration and the time-variant calibration showedthat there are major differences in the derived parameters,which illustrates the importance of a time dependentcalibration over both wet and dry periods and in more than onepoint in the area of interest of the model predictions.</p><p>In addition, a multi-criteriadecision analysis has been carried out for four roadalternatives (including the new highway E22) and the existingroad in the case study concerned. The multi-criteria decisionaid is applied as an illustration of how it can be used in thestudy area to identify a) interest groups of actors and theirconcerns b) ranking of alternative road scenarios according toactors’preferences and c) coalition groups of actors<i>i.e.</i>groups that have similar views with regard to theroad alternatives.</p><p><b>Keywords:</b>Physically-based groundwater modelling,contamination, flow and solute transport, glaciofluvialdeposits, Nybroåsen, Sweden, and multi-criteriadecision-aid.</p>

In the recent decades, therehave been frequent conflicts between groundwater waterresources and environmentally hazardous activities. Newmethodologies for aiding decision-making in groundwater impactassessment and protection areneeded and in which issues ofincreased awareness, better understanding of the groundwaterresources processes, and validation of predictive mathematicalmodels are addressed. A framework fordecision–aid, based on predictive simulations that a)predicts the environmental impacts b) provides the totaleconomical value c) visualises the impacts and the groundwaterproperties and d) describes the uncertainties in the results isproposed herein. The framework can be applied in environmentalimpact assessments, strategic environmental assessments andprotection and management of water resources. The results ofthe model are used as feedback for determining new scenarios,depending on the required uncertainties, and if the plannedactivity is sustainable, and/or fulfils the legislative andpolicy measures. This framework is applied to a particular casestudy, Nybroåsen, in the south-eastern part of Sweden,where the highway E22 is constructed through the importantglaciofluvial esker aquifer, passing the protection zone of thewater supply for the Kalmar municipality. The impacts from the new highwayand the existing road have been predicted by two-dimensionalphysically based time-variant flow and solute groundwatermodelling. The results, breakthrough curves of contaminantconcentration in wells and maps of concentration distributions,as well as travel times, flow paths, and capture zones forwells determined by particle tracking have been presented. The constructed model of theNybroåsen study area was calibrated by comparing observedand simulated groundwater levels for 15 observation wells forten years of measurements. The model has been evaluated bothgraphically and numerically and the calibration target wasfulfilled for 13 of the 15 observation wells. The model workincludes investigations of the catchment information, a waterbalance study, simulation of the groundwater recharge,consideration of the unsaturated zone by a numerical columnsimulation, and sensitivity analysis. From the sensitivity analysis ofthe flow and transport parameters, it has been shown that theuncertainties are mainly due to the hydraulic conductivity.Comparison of the derived conductivity from the steady-stateautomatic calibration and the time-variant calibration showedthat there are major differences in the derived parameters,which illustrates the importance of a time dependentcalibration over both wet and dry periods and in more than onepoint in the area of interest of the model predictions. In addition, a multi-criteriadecision analysis has been carried out for four roadalternatives (including the new highway E22) and the existingroad in the case study concerned. The multi-criteria decisionaid is applied as an illustration of how it can be used in thestudy area to identify a) interest groups of actors and theirconcerns b) ranking of alternative road scenarios according toactors’preferences and c) coalition groups of actorsi.e.groups that have similar views with regard to theroad alternatives. <b>Keywords:</b>Physically-based groundwater modelling,contamination, flow and solute transport, glaciofluvialdeposits, Nybroåsen, Sweden, and multi-criteriadecision-aid. / NR 20140805

Decision making processes of natural resources for sustainable development are very complex processes that contain large amounts of contradicting criteria and alternatives and/or objectives. Hence efficiency of planning and decision making is highly dependent on the structure of the decision problems. In this re-spect Multi Criteria Decision Aid (MCDA) is the most widely used method. Particularly GIS-based MCDA using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a well-known method in this respect. However, there are interrelationships and interdependences among problems of the real world. As a result, many spatial problems cannot be structured hierarchally because the importance of the criteria determines the importance of the alternatives, and the importance of the alternatives also determines the importance of the criteria. Analytical Network Process (ANP) based MCDA is a new planning and decision making ap-proach that allows the decision problem to be modeled considering feedbacks and interdependence among criteria. This study critically reviews GIS-based MCDA using the AHP method and the ANP based MCDA method and forwarded recommendations for future works. To attain this, practical decision making processes were used of urban form selection for a sustainable development of the Stockholm region. For this purpose literature was reviewed, separate methodologies were developed, criteria were formulated to be analyzed using GIS and SuperDecision software‟s, and finally reasonable results were achieved and separately presented to critically evaluate both the methods and the outcome. This study showed that GIS has the potential to be an important decision aid tool, that the ANP seems to give more realistic results than the GIS-based MCDA method, and that a compact scenario that over time follows already established polycentric pattern would be the best alternative urban form for a sustainable develop-ment of Greater Stockholm.

No / Conflicting rankings corresponding to alternative performance criteria and measures are mostly reported in the mono-criterion evaluation of competing distress prediction models (DPMs). To overcome this issue, this study extends the application of the expert system to corporate credit risk and distress prediction through proposing a Multi-criteria Decision Aid (MCDA), namely PROMETHEE II, which provides a multi-criteria evaluation of competing DPMs. In addition, using data on Chinese firms listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, we perform an exhaustive comparative analysis of the most popular DPMs; namely, statistical, artificial intelligence and machine learning models under both mono-criterion and multi-criteria frameworks. Further, we address two prevailing research questions; namely, "which DPM performs better in predicting distress?" and "will training models with corporate governance indicators (CGIs) enhance the performance of models?”; and discuss our findings. Our multi-criteria ranking suggests that non-parametric DPMs outperform parametric ones, where random forest and bagging CART are among the best machine learning DPMs. Further, models fed with CGIs as features outperform those fed without CGIs.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T14:53:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ArquivoTotalDjalma.pdf: 4424409 bytes, checksum: 61b695584fd76c1b9cdb355dbffb435a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-03-30 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / This paper aims to present a procedure to identify, assess and prioritize risks in the supply chain in order to fill gaps related to the stages of identification and risk assessment. The work begins with a literature review on supply chain (concepts, business models and performance indicators), risk management, supply chain, methods of multicriteria decision aid and probability. Regarding the identification of risk, initially, based on the literature, it was constructed a supply chain risk classification. To facilitate the process of identification, the risk classification was broken down into events that permits identify the risk occurrence and the data attached to it. Related to the process of risk assessment, due to difficulties in measuring the impact (cost) and probability of risk, in the pursuit of combining qualitative and quantitative aspects and add an analysis of influence between the types of risk, indicators that reflect the significance of the impact from the literature have been established and were associated to the risk classification trough the method Analytic Network Process (ANP) to evaluate the impact, and is shown a framework for assessment and evaluation of the likelihood. As a final result, it is proposed the procedure that assumes: 1) Comprehend the supply chain, 2) Identify risks, 3) Register data of risks occurrence; 4) Evaluate the impact of the risks with the ANP, where risks are the alternatives and indicators are criteria; 5) Calculate the probability; 6) Set the risk criticality index (Probability x Impact) and hence prioritize risks with the highest rates. With this procedure, the process of identify and assess risk in the supply chain can provide more accurate answers to decision makers, so a chain can better respond to risks that afflict it. / sta dissertação propõe uma metodologia para a identificação, avaliação e priorização de riscos em cadeia de suprimentos com base em lacunas encontradas na literatura sobre as metodologias propostas até então. O trabalho inicia com uma revisão de literatura sobre cadeia de suprimentos, gestão da cadeia de suprimentos, indicadores de desempenho em cadeia de suprimentos, gerenciamento de riscos em cadeia de suprimentos, métodos de Auxílio Multicritério à Decisão e probabilidade. Os procedimentos metodológicos aplicados para o atingimento do objetivo dessa pesquisa se deram a partir de uma pesquisa de natureza básica, com uma abordagem qualitativa, classificada como exploratória e descritiva quanto a seus objetivos e tendo como procedimento técnico a pesquisa bibliográfica. Com base na literatura pesquisada, construiu-se uma classificação de riscos que serviu de base para todo o restante. Em seguida os tipos de riscos apresentados na classificação proposta foram decompostos em eventos, indicadores, qualitativos e quantitativos, foram estabelecidos para avaliar o impacto do risco e uma equação para cálculo da probabilidade do risco foi desenvolvida. O estabelecimento destes elementos (classificação, eventos do risco, indicadores e equação de probabilidade) tornou possível o desenvolvimento da metodologia proposta nesta pesquisa que pressupõe: 1) Compreender a cadeia de suprimentos conforme apresenta o modelo LCP de gerenciamento da cadeia de suprimentos; 2) Identificar os riscos a partir do registro da ocorrência de algum de seus respectivos eventos que gerar impacto sobre a empresa focal; 3) Dado a ocorrência e impacto de um evento, registrar os indicadores e ocorrências dele, fornecendo ao longo do tempo, dados históricos para avaliação do risco; 4) Avaliar o impacto do risco com o Analytic Hierarchy Network (ANP) que compara os riscos através dos indicadores como forma de critérios; 5) Calcular a probabilidade do risco através dos registros de ocorrência dos eventos com o uso de uma equação baseada na distribuição de Poisson; 6) Combinar os resultados obtidos na avaliação do impacto com o ANP e no cálculo da probabilidade do risco (Impacto x Probabilidade), que resulta em um índice de criticidade do risco e, assim, priorizar os riscos com os maiores índices.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-09-16T11:56:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Marinaldo Oliveira Santos_.pdf: 2682832 bytes, checksum: f39463fc89972fe2230fe980b0b16e05 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-16T11:56:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marinaldo Oliveira Santos_.pdf: 2682832 bytes, checksum: f39463fc89972fe2230fe980b0b16e05 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-07-18 / UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos / A avaliação de desempenho funcional é uma das principais ferramentas de gestão de pessoas, seus resultados dão subsídios ao gestor para o planejamento de ações e políticas de melhorias, visando metas individuais e organizacionais. O caso selecionado para o estudo é a Avaliação Periódica de Desempenho (APED), regulada pelas normas legais representadas pela Lei n. 1.534 de 29 de dezembro de 2004 e pelo decreto n. 2.551 de 13 de outubro de 2005. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo propor melhorias no modelo atual de avaliação de desempenho dos servidores públicos do estado do Tocantins visando ao aprimoramento do instrumento de medição de desempenho por meio do emprego da abordagem de auxílio multicritério à decisão (AMD). Para alcançar este objetivo, foi adotada uma abordagem que combina os métodos AHP e PROMETHEE II, e ainda suas extensões para decisão em grupo, a abordagem de Agregação Individual de Prioridades (AIP) para o AHP e o PROMETHEE GDSS para o PROMETHEE II. Os resultados obtidos pela pesquisa propiciaram o aprimoramento do instrumento de avaliação atual da APED, por meio da definição de pesos para os avaliadores, competências e fatores de avaliação. Somado a isso, a partir do instrumento aprimorado, foi possível reformular o cálculo da nota final do avaliado empregando uma agregação aditiva. Com esses resultados, espera-se a melhoria efetiva do modelo atual de APED, que possibilitará a apresentação de resultados mais precisos em conformidade com o desempenho real das atividades laborais do funcionário, viabilizando a definição de políticas de qualificação de pessoal, valorizando o servidor público a fim de promover, de forma mais eficiente, os serviços públicos. / Functional performance evaluation is one of the main people management tools, its results give the manager subsidies for the planing of actions and improvement policies in order to achieve individual and organizational goals. The case selected for the study is Avaliação Periódica de Desempenho (APED), regulated by legal norms represented by the Law n. 1,534 of December 29, 2004 and the Decree 2,551 of 13 october, 2005. In this thesis I shall propound improvements to the current model of perfomance evaluation of public employees of Tocantins state in order to improve the perfomance measurement instrument through the use of multi-criteria decision aid - MDA approach. To achieve this goal, I adopted an approach that combines the AHP and PROMETHEE II methods, and also their extensions to group decision, the Aggregation Individual Priorities approach (AIP) for AHP and PROMETHEE GDSS for PROMETHEE II. The results obtained by the research, led me to the improvement of the current evaluation tool (APED), by defining weights for evaluators, skills and evaluation facts. Added to this, from the improved instrument, it was possible to reformulate the calculation of the final grade of evaluated using an additive aggregation. With these results it is expected the improvement of the current model of (APED), which will allow the submission of further accurate results in accordance with actual performance of labor employee activities, allowing the definition of qualification of personnel policies enhancing the public employee to provide more efficiently the public services

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Although not a recent invention, the plastics material are continuously renewed and used in numerous applications with various levels of complexity, ranging from disposable goods to engineering plastics with specific physico-chemical properties. Regarding the production chain of this material, however, it appears that it is extensive and heavily dominated by the large chemical and petrochemical companies, so that the industries of plastics processing, present in the form of a large set small businesses constitute the most notoriously-brittle and more susceptible to the forces of agents upstream and downstream link. Within this framework, the research developed in this dissertation aimed to propose a model for assessing the level of competitiveness of these industries, using both concepts for the multicriteria approach for decision aid. The proposed model was developed based on the most relevant critical success factors identified in the literature, organized as a hierarchical structure, where a performance indicator was constructed for each factor and weighted by a substitution rate. The model was subjected to test in twelve real companies, returning in its evaluation phase an index that represents the competitive performance of each industry evaluated, thus allowing the comparison and discussion of the results. Subsequently, shares of recommendations aiming to simulate possible results to be achieved with the adoption of strategic initiatives, developing an electronic tool for data processing and report generation. At the end, we conclude that it is possible to measure and evaluate the level of competitiveness in plastic processing industries. / Apesar de não ser uma invenção recente, os materiais plásticos se renovam continuamente, sendo utilizados em inúmeras aplicações com os mais variados níveis de complexidade, que vão desde bens descartáveis até plásticos de engenharia com propriedades físico-químicas específicas. No que tange a cadeia produtiva deste material, entretanto, verifica-se que a mesma é extensa e fortemente dominada pelas empresas químicas e petroquímicas de grande porte, de tal maneira que as indústrias de transformação de plásticos, presentes sob a forma de um elevado conjunto de pequenas empresas, constituem-se notoriamente do elo mais frágil e mais suscetível às forças dos agentes a montante e a jusante. Frente a este cenário, a pesquisa desenvolvida nesta dissertação de mestrado teve por objetivo propor uma modelagem para avaliar o nível de competitividade destas indústrias, utilizando-se para tanto os conceitos da abordagem multicritério de apoio à decisão. A modelagem proposta foi desenvolvida com base nos fatores críticos de sucesso mais relevantes identificados na literatura, organizados sob a forma de uma estrutura hierárquica, onde um indicador de desempenho foi construído para cada fator e ponderado por uma taxa de substituição própria. A modelagem foi submetida a teste em doze empresas reais, retornando em sua fase de avaliação um índice que representa o desempenho competitivo de cada indústria avaliada, permitindo-se assim a comparação e discussão dos resultados obtidos. Posteriormente, foram propostas ações de recomendações com o objetivo de simular os resultados possíveis de serem obtidos com a adoção de ações estratégicas, desenvolvendo-se uma ferramenta eletrônica para o processamento de dados e geração de relatórios. Ao término, conclui-se que é possível medir e avaliar o nível de competitividade em indústrias de transformação de plástico.

The photovoltaics is seen internationally regarded as a very promising technology. It is estimated that Brazil currently has a high capacity for solar power generation. Furthermore, from a strategic point of view, Brazil has a number of favorable natural features, such as high levels of insolation and great quality quartz reserves that can generate important competitive advantage for the production of silicon with high purity, photovoltaic cells and modules of high added value. In order to make the generation of Brazilian photovoltaics globally competitive, some government incentives are providing the growth, expansion and modernization of this technology. Despite the favorable environment in which it is the generation of electricity from renewable sources there are still gaps that undermine the competitiveness of plants that generate energy from photovoltaic source, such as the qualifications of labor available, the adequacy of suppliers to their demands and the great need for investment in technology. In this sense, this master thesis aimed to propose a modeling able to measure the level of competitiveness in the generation of photovoltaic energy, based on a bibliographical and documentary research on industry characteristics were raised 41 performance indicators, using for both assumptions regarding the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and elements of the multi-criteria approach to decision support. The proposed survey instrument was applied in two Brazilian solar plants, a research center on renewable energy the European Union and the metal-mechanic sector industry that has a solar system in operation. The test evaluation phase generated an index that represents the competitive performance of each of the participating research companies, Usina Eletrosul had a competitive percentage of 46.80%, the company Tramontina Eletrik 58%, Usina Tauá 74.75 % and 76.64% Cener, allowing a comparative discussion of the results. Later, they were recommendations proposed able to leverage the competitiveness of Usina Eletrosul, involving the simulation of indicators that showed unsatisfactory levels, demonstrating the relevance of modeling to increase the competitiveness of companies generating photovoltaic front power to the scenario at hand. / A energia fotovoltaica é vista internacionalmente como uma tecnologia bastante promissora. O Brasil tem atualmente uma elevada capacidade de geração de energia solar, além disso, do ponto de vista estratégico, possui uma série de características naturais favoráveis, tais como, altos níveis de insolação e grandes reservas de quartzo de qualidade, que podem gerar importante vantagem competitiva para a produção de silício com alto grau de pureza, células e módulos fotovoltaicos de alto valor agregado. Com o objetivo de tornar a geração de energia fotovoltaica brasileira mundialmente competitiva, alguns incentivos do governo estão proporcionando o crescimento, expansão e modernização desta tecnologia. Apesar do ambiente favorável em que se encontra a geração de energia elétrica a partir de fontes renováveis ainda existem lacunas que prejudicam a competitividade de usinas que geram energia a partir da fonte fotovoltaica, como a qualificação da mão-de-obra disponível, as adequações dos fornecedores às suas demandas e a grande necessidade de investimento em tecnologia. Neste sentido, esta dissertação de mestrado teve por objetivo propor uma modelagem capaz de mensurar o nível de competitividade na geração da energia fotovoltaica, fundamentada em uma pesquisa bibliográfica e documental sobre as características do setor foram levantados 41 indicadores de desempenho, utilizando-se para tanto os pressupostos referentes aos Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) e elementos da abordagem multicritério de apoio à decisão. O instrumento de pesquisa proposto foi aplicado em duas Usinas Solares brasileiras, um centro de pesquisa em energias renováveis da União Europeia e uma indústria do setor metalmecânico que possui um sistema solar em operação. A fase de avaliação do teste gerou um índice que representa o desempenho competitivo de cada uma das empresas participantes da pesquisa, a Usina da Eletrosul apresentou um percentual competitivo de 46,80%, a empresa Tramontina Eletrik 58%, a Usina Tauá 74,75% e o Cener 76,64%, permitindo uma discussão comparativa dos resultados obtidos. Posteriormente, foram propostas recomendações capazes de alavancar a competitividade da Usina da Eletrosul, envolvendo a simulação de indicadores que apresentaram níveis insatisfatórios, demonstrando-se a relevância da modelagem para elevar a competitividade de empresas geradoras de energia fotovoltaica frente ao cenário em que se apresenta.

For a little less than twenty years, researchers have worked on integrating Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Multi-Criteria Decision Aid (MCDA). Several contributions have been done by integrating DEA with different MCDA methods to bring this field to what it is today. After studying the course of Multi-Criteria Data Envelopment Analysis (MCDEA) integration through numerous works, the future of such an attempt can be questionable. For this aim, the PROMETHEE method in MCDA has been integrated with DEA. To the best of our knowledge, this synergy has been done for the first time in this thesis.Two synergies have been conducted: Using PROMETHEE in DEA and vice versa. The first contribution applies PROMETHEE in DEA to develop a new weight restricted DEA model. This new model has two main characteristics: more discrimination power between efficient units and engaging a priori information of decision makers in DEA. The second contribution uses both DEA and PROMETHEE to propose a new ranking technique. DEA is employed to generate a pairwise comparison matrix to be used in PROMETHEE for the purpose of ranking alternatives. The last contribution uses DEA in PROMETHEE. It presents a new algorithm to propose weights in the context of the PROMETHEE II method based on DEA. Furthermore, these two methods can be used in parallel. Comparing the results obtained from DEA and PROMETHEE in evaluating the performance of units enriches the analysis of decision-making problem by confirming the robustness of answers. The purpose of this integration is to provide some tools to help decision makers in the process of evaluating the performance of alternatives and analyzing the multicriteria decision-making problems. / Doctorat en Sciences de l'ingénieur et technologie / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished