[pt] Muitos problemas de transportes, assim como de outras áreas do conhecimento, envolvem tomada de decisão. Em decisões complexas, a escolha da melhor alternativa ou plano de ação pode envolver mais de um critério e é necessário estudar como cada ação afeta cada critério. O método AHP, Analytic Hierarchy Process, proposto por Thomas L. Saaty, é um método de decisão multicriterial que funciona para os mais diversos tipos de decisões, solucionando problemas com fatores quantitativos e qualitativos. Ele reúne a opinião dos tomadores de decisão em matrizes de comparação. Este trabalho faz uma revisão geral de conceitos básicos do método, mostrando diferentes maneiras de cálculo da solução. A primeira explorada é o cálculo exato através dos autovalores e autovetores das matrizes. Para esse cálculo, foi utilizado o software francês Scilab, semelhante ao mais conhecido Matlab, mas distibuído gratuitamente na internet. É discutida a questão da consistência dos julgamentos, com maneiras de medi-la e melhorá-la. Finalmente, é feita uma proposta de solução aproximada, que questiona a idéia original de que um certo nível de inconsistência é desejável. É uma solução simplificada que, supondo consistência absoluta, facilita não só os cálculos como o trabalho inicial dos tomadores de decisão. Em vez de comparar todas as alternativas com as outras, duas a duas, passa a ser necessário comparar apenas uma alternativa com as outras. A nova solução aproximada é comparada com a solução exata em três casos retirados da literatura. / [en] Several transportation problems, as well as problems in other knowledge areas, request decision making. In complex decisions, the choice of best alternative or course of action can contain more than one criterion and it is necessary to study how each alternative affects each criterion. The AHP, Analytic Hierarchy Process, proposed by Thomas L. Saaty, is a multicriteria decision method that works well for very diverse decision types, solving problems with tangible and intangible factors. It gathers the opinion of decision makers in comparison matrices. This study makes a general review of basic concepts of the method, showing different manners of calculating the solution. The first one to be displayed is the exact solution using the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the matrices. For this solution the French software Scilab was used, which is similar to the well-known Matlab, but free and distributed on the web. The issue of judgment consistency is discussed, including ways of measuring and improving it. Finally, a proposal of approximated solution is made, questioning the original idea which says that a certain level of inconsistency is desirable. It is a simplification that, considering absolute consistency, facilitates not only the calculations but also the early work of decision makers when judging the alternatives. Instead of making pair wise comparisons of all alternatives with each other, it becomes necessary to compare only one alternative with the others. The new approximated solution is compared to the real solution in three cases taken from the literature.

A escolha por fazer ou por comprar é um problema clássico enfrentado pelas empresas. Essa decisão diz respeito à opção de fazer internamente, optar por uma gestão hibrida (interna e externa ao mesmo tempo) ou terceirizar uma atividade. Por envolver diversos critérios, muitos responsáveis por ela utilizam métodos de decisão multicritério para que se obtenha melhores resultados. O objetivo deste trabalho consiste em desenvolver uma estrutura para a tomada de decisão de fazer ou comprar e utilizar métodos de decisão multicritério para conferir maior confiabilidade à essa decisão. Para isso, os objetivos específicos são: (1) realizar uma pesquisa bibliográfica sobre o tema (decisão de fazer ou comprar auxiliada por métodos de decisão multicritério), (2) propor um processo estruturado de decisão para o problema de fazer ou comprar, (3) propor métodos adequados aos propósitos de categorização ou ordenação nas diferentes etapas do processo, incluindo métodos que contemplem a possibilidade de decisão em grupo e (4) realizar um estudo comparativo de métodos de decisão multicritério para a decisão sobre Fazer ou Comprar. Os objetivos desse trabalho foram plenamente alcançados trazendo contribuições como: uma revisão bibliográfica sistemática sobre métodos de decisão multicritério para o problema de fazer ou comprar; uma estrutura de decisão para dar suporte à decisão de fazer ou comprar; a aplicação de métodos ainda não utilizados para o problema de fazer ou comprar; aplicação de métodos que suportem a problemática da decisão em grupo e; a comparação entre dois métodos para o propósito de categorização e duas para o propósito de ordenação. / The make or buy decision is a classical decision problem in operations management and it is difficult to make because of its very nature (multiple criteria). To better contend with these challenges, many decision makers choose Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques to support their decisions. The aim of this work is to develop a methodology to support the make or buy decision and the use of the multi-criteria decision methods in this context. The specific objectives are: (1) to conduct a literature research about multi-criteria decision making techniques to support the make or buy decision; (2) to propose a structured decision framework to the make or buy problem; (3) to propose appropriate methods for categorization or ordering at different stages of the process, including methods that support group decisions and; (4) to perform a comparative study of multi-criteria decision-making methods for the make or buy problem. The objectives of this work were fully achieved by bringing contributions such as: a systematic literature review on multi-criteria decision-making methods for the make or buy problem; A decision framework to support the make or buy decision; The application of methods that were not found in the systematic literature review for the problem of make or buy problem; Application of methods that support the group decision problem and; The comparison between two techniques for categorization purposes and two for ordering purposes.

Dans cette thèse nous proposons un outil d’aide à la décision multicritère qui permet aux décideurs de sélectionner un scénario optimal dans un graphe de projet qui contient toutes les alternatives de choix de conception et de réalisation d’un nouveau système, tout en tenant compte des risques inhérents aux choix réalisés. Le modèle du graphe est construit en considérant toutes les décisions collaboratives des différents acteurs impliqués dans le projet. Cet outil d’aide à la décision est basé principalement sur les techniques de l’optimisation combinatoire. En effet, nous avons choisi de travailler avec la métaheuristique ACO (algorithme d’optimisation par colonies de fourmis) vu sa capacité à fournir des solutions optimales dans un temps raisonnable. Les objectifs à minimiser sont le coût global du projet, sa durée totale de réalisation et l’incertitude sur ces critères (coût, durée). La modélisation des incertitudes a été abordée suivant deux approches différentes. La première approche consiste à modéliser l’incertitude en utilisant des intervalles simples et en la considérant comme un objectif à part entière à optimiser avec le coût et la durée. Quant à la deuxième approche, elle permet de modéliser l’incertitude sur les objectifs du projet (coût, durée) sous formes de distributions de probabilités. L’outil d’optimisation proposé dans la thèse fait partie d’un processus intégré et plus global qui se base sur les standards industriels (processus d’ingénierie système et de management de projet) qui sont largement connus et utilisés dans les entreprises. Ainsi, le travail développé dans cette thèse constitue un vrai guide pour les industriels dans leurs processus de conception et de réalisation des systèmes complexes innovants dans le domaine d’ingénierie système. / In this thesis, we propose a multi-criteria decision making tool that allows decision-makers to select an optimal scenario in a project graph that includes all the alternative choices of a new system’s conception and realization, while taking into account the risks inherent to these choices. The model of the graph is constructed by considering all the collaborative decisions of the different actors involved in the project. This decision making tool is based mainly on the techniques of combinatorial optimization. Indeed, we have decided to work with the metaheuristic ACO (Ant Colony Optimization algorithm) for its ability to provide optimal solutions in a reasonable amount of time. The objectives to be minimized are the total cost of the project, its global duration and the uncertainties about these criteria (cost, duration). The uncertainties modeling is performed according to two different approaches. The first approach consists in using single intervals to model the uncertainty and it is considered as a third objective to optimize besides cost and duration. As for the second approach, the uncertainty about project objectives (cost, duration) is performed by using probabilities distributions. The optimization tool proposed in this thesis is a part of an integrated and more global process, based on industrial standards (the systems engineering process and the project management one) that are widely known and used in companies. Thus, the work developed in this thesis is a real guide for companies in their process of design and realization of innovative complex systems in the systems engineering field.

O presente trabalho aborda o problema de localização de plataformas logísticas. Buscaram-se métodos de auxílio à tomada de decisão com enfoque multicritério. A essência da tomada de decisão multicritério é a escolha da melhor alternativa, a partir de um conjunto de alternativas competitivas que são avaliadas sob critérios conflitantes. Entre os métodos estudados, o Método de Análise Hierárquica (AHP), proposto inicialmente por Saaty (1971), foi selecionado como ferramenta de apoio à tomada de decisão. Ele permite considerar simultaneamente atributos quantitativos e qualitativos e, também, incorporar a experiência e a preferência dos tomadores de decisão. Foram ainda levantados os fatores determinantes para escolha de alternativas de localização para plataformas logísticas. O caso do ETSP (Entreposto Terminal São Paulo) da CEAGESP (Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo) foi objeto da aplicação do método selecionado. A análise do problema de localização do Entreposto da CEAGESP está restrita à Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. O software Expert Choice foi utilizado para a aplicação do AHP ao caso do CEAGESP. Após a discussão dos resultados, conclusões e recomendações são apresentadas. / This work deals with the facility location problems of logistics platforms, considering multi-criteria approaches for decision making. The essence of multi-criteria decision making is the choice of the best alternative, from a set of competitive alternatives, which are evaluated under conflicting criteria. Among the multi-criteria methods researched in the bibliography, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), initially proposed by Saaty (1971), has been chosen and successfully applied to the case in consideration. This method allows to consider quantitative and qualitative measurable criteria and, also, to incorporate the experience and preference of the decision makers. Determinant factors for the choice of location alternatives for logistic platforms have been considered. The case of the ETSP (Entreposto Terminal São Paulo) of the CEAGESP (Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo) was object of application of the selected method. The Expert Choice software was used for the AHP application to the CEAGESP case. After discussion of the results, conclusions and recommendations from the application are presented.

A escolha por fazer ou por comprar é um problema clássico enfrentado pelas empresas. Essa decisão diz respeito à opção de fazer internamente, optar por uma gestão hibrida (interna e externa ao mesmo tempo) ou terceirizar uma atividade. Por envolver diversos critérios, muitos responsáveis por ela utilizam métodos de decisão multicritério para que se obtenha melhores resultados. O objetivo deste trabalho consiste em desenvolver uma estrutura para a tomada de decisão de fazer ou comprar e utilizar métodos de decisão multicritério para conferir maior confiabilidade à essa decisão. Para isso, os objetivos específicos são: (1) realizar uma pesquisa bibliográfica sobre o tema (decisão de fazer ou comprar auxiliada por métodos de decisão multicritério), (2) propor um processo estruturado de decisão para o problema de fazer ou comprar, (3) propor métodos adequados aos propósitos de categorização ou ordenação nas diferentes etapas do processo, incluindo métodos que contemplem a possibilidade de decisão em grupo e (4) realizar um estudo comparativo de métodos de decisão multicritério para a decisão sobre Fazer ou Comprar. Os objetivos desse trabalho foram plenamente alcançados trazendo contribuições como: uma revisão bibliográfica sistemática sobre métodos de decisão multicritério para o problema de fazer ou comprar; uma estrutura de decisão para dar suporte à decisão de fazer ou comprar; a aplicação de métodos ainda não utilizados para o problema de fazer ou comprar; aplicação de métodos que suportem a problemática da decisão em grupo e; a comparação entre dois métodos para o propósito de categorização e duas para o propósito de ordenação. / The make or buy decision is a classical decision problem in operations management and it is difficult to make because of its very nature (multiple criteria). To better contend with these challenges, many decision makers choose Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques to support their decisions. The aim of this work is to develop a methodology to support the make or buy decision and the use of the multi-criteria decision methods in this context. The specific objectives are: (1) to conduct a literature research about multi-criteria decision making techniques to support the make or buy decision; (2) to propose a structured decision framework to the make or buy problem; (3) to propose appropriate methods for categorization or ordering at different stages of the process, including methods that support group decisions and; (4) to perform a comparative study of multi-criteria decision-making methods for the make or buy problem. The objectives of this work were fully achieved by bringing contributions such as: a systematic literature review on multi-criteria decision-making methods for the make or buy problem; A decision framework to support the make or buy decision; The application of methods that were not found in the systematic literature review for the problem of make or buy problem; Application of methods that support the group decision problem and; The comparison between two techniques for categorization purposes and two for ordering purposes.

After decades of standstill in intercity passenger rail in the United States, the Obama administration recently started major initiatives to implement high-speed ground transportation projects that are expected to improve the nation's transportation system significantly, addressing most prevailing issues like congestion and energy prices while having positive effects on the economy. This study evaluates and compares two high-speed ground transportation systems that have the potential to improve intercity passenger transportation in the United States significantly: the wheel-on-rail high-speed system and the high-speed maglev system. Both high-speed ground transportation systems were evaluated with respect to 58 characteristics organized into 7 categories associated with technology, environmental impacts, economic considerations, user-friendliness, operations, political factors, and safety. Based on the performance of each system in each of the 58 characteristics, benefit values were assigned. In order to weight the relative importance of the different characteristics, a survey was conducted with transportation departments and transportation professionals. The survey produced weighting factors scoring each of the 58 characteristics and the 7 categories. Applying a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach, the overall utility values for either system were calculated based on the benefit values from the systems comparison and the weighting factors from the survey. It was shown that the high-speed maglev system is generally slightly superior over the wheel-on-rail high-speed system. Because the magnitude of the difference in the overall performance of both transportation systems is not very big, it is recommended that every project in the high-speed intercity passenger transportation market consider both HSGT systems equally.

<p>ABSTRACT</p><p>Cities throughout Asia have experienced unprecedented economic development over the past decades. In many cases this has contributed to their rapid and uncontrolled growth, which has resulted in a multiplicity of problems, including rapid population increase, enhanced environmental pollution, collapsing traffic systems, dysfunctional waste management, and rapid increases in the consumption of energy, water and other resources. The significant energy use in cities is not very well perceived in Asian countries. Although a number of studies into energy consumption across various sectors have been conducted, most are from the national point of view. Energy demand analysis is not considered important at the level of the city. The thesis is focused on the dynamics of energy utilization in Asian mega-cities, and ultimately aims at providing strategies for maximizing the use of renewable energy in large urban systems.</p><p>The study aims at providing an in-depth understanding of the complex dynamics of energy utilization in urban mega-centers. An initial general analysis is complemented by a detailed study of the current situation and future outlook for the city of Bangkok, Thailand. An integrated approach applied to the study includes identification of the parameters that affect the utilization of energy in mega-cities and a detailed analysis of energy flows and their various subsystems, including commercial, industrial, residential and that of transportation. The study investigates and evaluates the energy models most commonly used for analyzing and simulating energy utilization. Its purpose is to provide a user-friendly tool suitable for decision-makers in developing an energy model for large cities. In addition, a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process has been developed to assess whether or not the energy systems meet the sustainability criteria.</p><p>A metabolic approach has been employed to analyze the energy flow and utilization in selected Asian mega-cities, including Bangkok, Beijing, Shanghai, and Tokyo. The approach is applied to measure the majority of indirect energy flows or the energy embodied in the flows of goods and services involving the residents of those cities. Since the function of cities is to serve the lives of the residents, indirect energy consumption could be regarded as being of equal importance as that of direct energy use. The essence of embodied energy is that an indirect reflection upon behavior following direct energy consumption. It can illustrate how a city relies on the outside, for example other cities, countries, etc. and provides some interesting information that cannot be easily drawn from the direct energy demand. The study reveals that the indirect energy demand is more significant than the direct energy demand in Bangkok, Shanghai, and Tokyo, while direct energy demand is greater than the indirect energy demand in Beijing. This can be explained by the fact that Bangkok, Shanghai, and Tokyo have a greater reliance upon the outside in terms of energy demand.</p><p>The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system has been selected to perform Bangkok energy modeling. In a Bangkok case study a range of policy interventions are selected and how these would change the energy development in Bangkok by the year 2025 is examined. Different policies can be grouped by the sectors analyzed. The only supply-side policy considered meets an existing target of having 10% of electricity generated from renewable sources. The study period for the model started in 2005 and ends in 2025, with the year 2000 taken as the base year. The proposed scenarios were evaluated using the MCDM approach to rate their sustainability. Team members found that this method provided a methodology to help decision-makers to systematically identify management objectives and priorities.</p>

New Zealand faces a range of food safety hazards. Microbial hazards alone were estimated to cause over 2,000 years of lost healthy life in 2011 (Cressey, 2012) and $62m in medical costs and lost productivity in 2009 (Gadiel & Abelson, 2010). Chemical hazards are thought to be well managed through existing controls (Vannoort & Thomson, 2009) whereas microbial hazards are considered harder to control, primarily due to their ability to reproduce along the food production chain. Microbial hazards are thought to cause the majority of acute foodborne gastroenteritis. This research reviewed food safety literature and official documentation, and conducted 55 interviews, mostly with food safety experts from different stakeholder groups, to examine the food safety decision-making environment in New Zealand. This research explores the concept of the ‘stakeholder’ in the context of food safety decision-making and proposes an inclusive ‘stakeholder’ definition as any group which is able to affect, or be affected by, the decision-making process. Utilising this definition, and guided by interviews, New Zealand stakeholders in food safety decision-making were identified and classified as follows: •Regulators •Public health authorities •Food safety scientists/academics •Consumers •Māori •Food Businesses (further classified as): o Farmers o Processors o Food retailers o Exporters Interviews with stakeholders from these groups highlighted twelve criteria as being relevant to multiple groups during food safety intervention evaluation: •Effectiveness •Financial cost •Market Access •Consumer Perceptions •Ease of Implementation •Quality or Suitability •Quality of Science •Equity of Costs •Equity of Benefits •Workplace Safety •Cultural Impact •Animal Welfare There are a number of different ways to measure or assess performance on these criteria. Some are able to be quantitatively measured, while others may require the use of value judgements. This thesis used the Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) metric for quantifying effectiveness during the testing of different MCDA models. This thesis reviews the MCDA process and the food safety specific MCDA literature. There are different ways of conducting MCDA. In particular, there are a large number of models available for the aggregation phase; the process of converting model inputs, in the form of criteria scores and weights, into model recommendations. This thesis has described and reviewed the main classes of model. The literature review and interview process guided the construction and testing of three classes of MCDA model; the Weighted Sum, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and PROMETHEE models. These models were selected due to their having different characteristics and degrees of complexity, as well as their popularity in the food safety and Health Technology Assessment (HTA) literature. Models were tested on the problem of selecting the most appropriate intervention to address the historic Campylobacter in poultry problem in New Zealand during the mid-2000s. Experimentation was conducted on these models to explore how different configurations utilise data and produce model outputs. This experimentation included: •Varying the format of input data •Exploring the effects of including/excluding criteria •Methods for sensitivity analysis •Exploring how data inputs and outputs can be elicited and presented using visual tools • Creating and using hybrid MCDA models The results of this testing are a key output of this thesis and provide insight into how such models might be used in food safety decision-making. The conclusions reached throughout this research phase can be classified into one of two broad groups: •Those relating to MCDA as a holistic process/methodology for decision-making •Those relating to the specific models and mathematical procedures for generating numerical inputs and outputs This thesis demonstrates that food-safety decision-making is a true multi-criteria, multi-stakeholder problem. The different stakeholders in food-safety decision-making do not always agree on the value and importance of the attributes used to evaluate competing intervention schemes. MCDA is well suited to cope with such complexity as it provides a structured methodology for the systematic and explicit identification, recording and aggregation of qualitative and quantitative information, gathered from a number of different sources, with the output able to serve as a basis for decision-making. The MCDA models studied in this thesis range from models that are simple and quick to construct and use, to more time consuming models with sophisticated algorithms. The type of model used for MCDA, the way these models are configured and the way inputs are generated or elicited can have a significant impact on the results of an analysis. This thesis has identified a number of key methodological considerations for those looking to employ one of the many available MCDA models. These considerations include: •Whether a model can accommodate the type and format of input data •The desired degree of compensation between criteria (i.e. full, partial or no compensation) •Whether the goal of an analysis is the identification of a ‘best’ option(s), or the facilitation of discussion, and communication of data •The degree of transparency required from a model and whether an easily understood audit trail is desired/required •The desired output of a model (e.g. complete or partial ranking). This thesis has also identified a number of practical considerations when selecting which model to use in food safety decision-making. These include: •The amount of time and energy required of stakeholders in the generation of data inputs (elicitation burden) •The degree of training required for participants •How data inputs are to be elicited and aggregated in different group decision-making environments •The availability of MCDA software for assisting an analysis Considering the above points will assist users in selecting a suitable MCDA model that meets their requirements and constraints. This thesis provides original and practical knowledge to assist groups or individuals looking to employ MCDA in the context of food-safety intervention decision-making. This research could also serve as a guide for those looking to evaluate a different selection of MCDA models.

Since businesses are constantly changing, making right decisions is a critical factor in order to achieve good results. In the thesis, two different decision support models are tested and the outcome is compared. This is done in cooperation with a company, Åmotfors Energi, who is facing a decision on how they can make use of their 30 GWh heat which they today do not have a paying customer for. Nine alternatives are used in the models and evaluated with seventeen different criteria. The purpose of this study is to compare and interpret the outcomes of two decision support models: the Analytical Hierarchy Process and Pugh Matrix Analysis. The purpose is also to investigate the main factors that influence the outcome of the models. The main research strategy was to use experimental design where three experts with various technical skills have scored the alternatives in both models. The alternatives have been carefully developed through an idea generation and idea selection phase. The results show that the models give different result when it comes to ranking the alternatives, both between the models and between the different experts. The empirical findings establish that the outcome from the models should be interpreted that the lowest scored alternatives can be eliminated for further research. The alternatives with the highest score should be further investigated before a decision could be made. Furthermore, what mainly affects the result is based on human factors. / Företag står inför ständiga förändringar och att fatta rätt beslut ses som en kritisk faktor för att uppnå goda resultat. I denna uppsats testas två beslutsstödjande modeller där utfallet av dem jämförs. Detta görs med hjälp av företaget Åmotfors Energi som står inför ett beslut om hur de kan använda deras 30 GWh värme som de i dagsläget inte har någon betalande kund för. Nio alternativ används i modellerna och utvärderas med sjutton uppsatta kriterier. Syftet med denna studie är att testa, jämföra och tolka resultatet från två beslutsstödjande modeller, den Analytiska Hierarkiska Processen och Pughs Matris Analys. Syftet är också att utreda vilka huvudfaktorer som påverkar utfallet av modellerna. Den huvudsakliga forskningsstrategin var ett experiment tre experter med olika tekniska färdigheter har poängsatt de olika alternativen i modellerna. Alternativen är omsorgsfullt framtagna genom en idégenereringsfas och en idéurvalsfas. Resultaten visar att modellerna ger olika resultat när det kommer till att rangordna alternativen, både vid jämförelsen mellan modellerna men även mellan experterna. Den empiriska studien visar att resultatet från modellerna bör tolkas som att de lägst rankade alternativen kan uteslutas, och de högst rankade alternativen bör utvärderas vidare innan ett besluta kan tas. Det som huvudsakligen påverkar resultatet baseras på mänskliga faktorer.

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The management of physical assets has become a popular eld of study over recent years and is being acknowledged in multiple disciplines world wide. In this project, research on Physical Asset Management (PAM), maintenance and decision making are presented. PAM is a complex subject and requires the participation of multiple disciplines in order to successfully manage physical assets. Moreover, the management of maintenance makes a big contribution in achieving successful PAM. Decision making is a core element to manage maintenance e ciently, both on strategic and operational level. Various methods and techniques can be used to aid the decision making process such as, using past experience, xed decision making techniques and techniques involving numerical calculations, to mention only a few. However, using numerical calculations to make decisions are not very popular. This is due to various reasons, for example the inherent complexity of the mathematics and the time required to execute such calculations are disliked. People tend to avoid complex numerical calculations and rather rely on past experience and discussion of circulating opinions to make decisions. This is not ideal and can lead to inconsistent and inaccurate decisions. In this project, the importance of numerical decision making is researched, especially in maintenance related decisions. The focus is placed on the simpli cation of numerical decision making techniques with the aim to make it easy and quick to use to support operational PAM decisions. Di erent decisions regarding PAM, especially decisions with regards to managing maintenance in order to achieve PAM, are discussed by means of a literature study. This is done to clarify the applicability of using numerical decision making techniques to support this type of decisions. A few di erent available numerical techniques are highlighted that can be used to support the decision making process. The decisions together with numerical decision making techniques are evaluated in order to combine the most appropriate techniques in a simpli ed manner. The purpose of this is that it can be used by anyone with the necessary knowledge of a speci c system or operation. As a result a simpli ed numerical decision making toolbox is developed that can support maintenance related decision. This toolbox is applied to a real life situation by means of a case study, made possible by Anglo American Platinum Limited (Amplats). An evaluation and validation of the toolbox is done through the case study to conclude wether it has value in practice or not. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die bestuur van siese bates het die afgelope paar jaar 'n gewilde studieveld geword en word erken in verskeie dissiplines reg oor die w^ereld. In hierdie projek word navorsing gedoen oor Fisiese Bate Bestuur (FBB), instandhouding en besluitneming. FBB is 'n komplekse onderwerp en vereis die deelname van verskeie dissiplines om sukses te behaal. Die bestuur van instandhouding maak 'n groot bydrae tot suksesvolle FBB. 'n Kern element van doeltre ende instandhouding is besluitneming, beide op strategiese en operasionele vlak. Verskillende metodes en tegnieke kan gebruik word om die besluitnemingsproses te ondersteun soos byvoorbeeld om gebruik te maak van ondervinding en vorige gebeurtenisse, vaste besluitnemingstegnieke, tegnieke wat numeriese berekeninge gebruik en nog meer. Die gebruik van numeriese metodes om besluite te neem is nie baie gewild nie. Dit is as gevolg van verskeie redes soos byvoorbeeld die inherente kompleksiteit en ingewikkeldheid van die wiskunde en ook die tyd wat benodig word om sulke berekeninge uit te voer. Mense is geneig om ingewikkelde numeriese berekeninge te vermy en eerder staat te maak op vorige ervaring en die bespreking van menings om besluite te neem. Dit is nie ideaal nie en kan lei tot onkonsekwente besluite, of selfs verkeerde besluite. In hierdie projek is die belangrikheid van numeriese besluitneming nagevors, veral in die onderhoudsverwante besluite. Die fokus word geplaas op die vereenvoudiging van die numeriese besluitnemings tegnieke. Die doel is om dit op so 'n manier te vereenvoudig dat dit maklik en vinnig is om te gebruik vir operasionele FBB besluite. Verskillende besluite oor FBB, veral besluite met betrekking tot instandhouding om suksesvolle FBB te bereik, word bespreek deur middel van 'n literatuurstudie. Die literatuurstudie ondersoek die toepaslikheid van die gebruik van numeriese besluitnemingstegnieke vir hierdie soort besluite. 'n Paar verskillende beskikbare numeriese tegnieke wat gebruik kan word om die besluitnemingsproses te ondersteun word uitgelig. Die besluite, saam met numeriese besluitnemingtegnieke, word ge evalueer om die mees gepaste tegnieke te kombineer in 'n vereenvoudigde manier. Uiteindelik moet dit deur enige iemand met die nodige kennis van 'n spesi eke stelsel of proses gebruik kan word. As resultaat is 'n vereenvoudigde numeriese besluitnemingstegniekkombinasie ontwikkel wat besluite verwant aan instandhouding kan ondersteun. Hierdie tegniek-kombinasie word toegepas in 'n werklike situasie deur middel van 'n gevallestudie, wat moontlik gemaak is deur Anglo American Platinum Limited. 'n Evaluering en validering van die tegniek-kombinasie word gedoen in die gevallestudie om te bepaal of dit wel waarde het in die praktyk of nie.