O estudo de sistemas logísticos envolve a concatenação de elementos estratégicos e operacionais, comumente compondo sistemas com múltiplas facetas, objetivos antagônicos e grande número de alternativas. Nesse contexto, o presente trabalho discute a utilização de análise de decisão multicritério (MCDA), simulação de eventos discretos (SED) e otimização para simulação. A metodologia MCDA captura, mensura e pondera os objetivos e valores dos tomadores de decisão. Por sua vez, a SED representa o sistema estudado com alto nível de detalhamento, permitindo a avaliação de diversas configurações do sistema. Por fim, métodos de otimização para simulação possibilitam a busca e comparação de alternativas mais eficientes. As três metodologias são avaliadas, identificando suas vantagens, desvantagens e complementaridades quando aplicadas a sistemas logísticos. Através da aplicação de um estudo de caso sobre o dimensionamento de um sistema de transporte, constatou-se que: a) a SED incorporou detalhes importantes para a avaliação mais precisa de vários indicadores de desempenho b) a metodologia MCDA possibilitou a captura de vários objetivos e valores, propiciando a realização de tradeoffs robustos; c) um método de busca exaustiva e técnicas de redução de variância permitiram a comparação das alternativas em tempos computacionais reduzidos. Por fim, conclui-se que a metodologia híbrida apresentada expande o potencial de aplicação da SED em sistemas logísticos complexos. / A logistic system study involves strategic and operational elements, commonly composing multi-faceted systems with antagonistic goals and large number of alternatives. In this context, this thesis discusses the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), discrete event simulation (DES) and optimization for simulation. The MCDA methodology captures, measures and weighs the goals and values of decision makers. DES is useful for representing systems with high level of detail, allowing the evaluation of several system configurations. Finally, optimization for simulation procedures are useful for searching and comparing more efficient alternatives. These three methodologies are assessed and their advantages, disadvantages, and complementarities are identified for logistics systems applications. Through a case study of a transportation system, we conclude that: a) the SED incorporated important details for more precise evaluation of various performance indicators b) the MCDA methodology was useful to capture several goals and values, so that robust tradeoffs could be carried out c) an exhaustive search routine and variance reduction techniques allowed the comparison of several alternatives in feasible computational times. Finally, we conclude that the presented hybrid methodology expands the application of DES to complex logistics systems.

A relevância da infraestrutura de transporte para incrementos em produtividade, induzindo ao desenvolvimento socioeconômico de determinada região é amplamente reconhecida. O Brasil, no entanto, apresenta sérias deficiências em relação à sua infraestrutura de transporte, oriundas de seu desenvolvimento histórico e da redução de níveis de investimentos públicos no setor nas últimas décadas. Estas deficiências traduzem-se em grande concentração no modal rodoviário para o transporte de cargas, menos eficiente do que os modais ferroviário e hidroviário, resultando em reduzida competitividade das organizações nacionais. Neste contexto, objetivou-se no presente trabalho a proposição de um modelo para avaliação e seleção de investimentos em infraestrutura de transporte de cargas, considerando-se seu caráter multidimensional. Para isso, foi proposta metodologia integrando os conceitos de análise de decisão multicritério e de programação matemática, representados pela teoria de utilidade multiatributo (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory - MAUT) e por problema de otimização de fluxos em rede (Minimum Cost Network Flow Problem - MCNFP), respectivamente. No desenvolvimento do modelo foram contemplados critérios de avaliação referentes às dimensões de análise financeira, operacional e ambiental. Posteriormente, foi considerada a aplicação de versões do modelo proposto com diferentes números de períodos de análise em caso ilustrativo, representativo da rede de transporte disponível e planejada da região Norte do Brasil. A aplicação das diversas versões do modelo proposto, de forma geral, apresentou resultados compatíveis com as teorias relacionadas à avaliação deste problema de decisão, incluindo indução à multimodalidade. Algumas versões do modelo apresentaram violações em algumas de suas restrições. Estes resultados adversos não foram plenamente eliminados, devido a limitações das ferramentas adotadas para aplicação. No entanto, foi possível a correção manual destas violações, resultando em soluções viáveis que, apesar de não serem consideradas ótimas, são mais completas do que soluções obtidas por meio de metodologias unidimensionais de análise. Por fim, foram apresentadas recomendações para condução de trabalhos futuros visando eliminação dos resultados adversos do modelo proposto e complementação de sua análise. / The role of transport infrastructure in productivity increases leading to regional social-economic development is widely recognized. Brazil, however, has serious deficiencies in its transport infrastructure, rooted in the country\'s historical development and in the recent decades\' reduction of public investment in the sector. These deficiencies can be observed in Brazil\'s strong focus on roads for cargo transportation, which besides being less efficient than rail and waterways, results in reduced competitiveness of national enterprises. In this context, the aim of this work was to propose a model for evaluating and selecting investments in freight\'s transportation infrastructure, considering its multidimensional character. It was proposed a methodology integrating the concepts of multi-criteria decision analysis and mathematical programming, represented by the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) along with the Minimum Cost Network Flow Problem (MCNFP). The developed model included financial, operational and environmental analysis evaluation criteria. Subsequently, this study applied the proposed model into a case study of the transportation network, available and planned, of the Northern region of Brazil. Overall, the application of various versions of the proposed model yielded results consistent with related evaluation and decision making theories, including induction of multimodality. Some versions of the model presented some violations of its restrictions. These adverse results were not fully eliminated due to the limitations of the application tools utilized. It was possible, however, to manually correct these violations and obtain viable solutions that, while cannot be considered optimal, are more complete than those obtained by single dimension analysis. Finally, recommendations were made for future studies aiming at eliminating the proposed model\'s adverse outcomes, and complementing its analysis.

Companies today are aggressively finding ways to improve top-line growth by introducing innovative products faster to the market. To achieve both innovation and accelerated rollout, many are turning to techniques such as Stage Gate approaches to improve engineering and marketing collaborations to clarify short term resource allocations (day to day plan with employee assignment). While Stage Gate approaches have been shown to result in better project coordination and faster time to market by doing projects right, research also indicates the need to ensure alignment to company strategy by doing the right projects within the allocated annual budget through medium term (rough cut capacity plan with employee requirements) and long term resource allocations (business / strategic plan with funding requirements). Today, such medium to long term resource allocation methodologies tend to be broadly consolidated under Research and Development (R&D) product portfolio management. We argue that there is value in a philosophical change in viewing R&D product portfolio management from the context of (1.) long and medium term resource allocation phases separately, (2.) focusing on the overlapping regions between long and medium term and between medium and short term resource allocation phases and (3.) the evolving resource allocation perspective (monetary to headcount to skillset) through these phases. Cooper et al note that for R&D product portfolio management and the Stage Gate process to work together, one can expect one of two scenarios - a gates dominated approach (where the prioritization and resource decisions are made at short term focused Stage Gates) or a portfolio reviews dominated approach (where the prioritization and resource decisions are made at the long term focused portfolio reviews). We propose that with appropriate focus given to the medium term phase, a third approach that we call a Hybrid Gates approach can exist in a "gates dominated" environment. A case study on Freescale Semiconductor was used as an empirical inquiry to gain deeper understanding on the perceived value of this approach within a real-life context. Triangulating between structured surveys, unstructured surveys, and focused interviews; we were able to show perceived value to the organization in the following areas: (1.) Enhancing the understanding of decision maker's decision and solution spaces, (2.) Clarifying strategic expressions and "stress testing" new strategies, (3.) Improving horizontal and vertical communication within the organization and (4.) Aiding in objectivity in R&D investment allocation. Furthermore, we were able to conceptually show how this approach retains the advantages of the gates dominated and portfolio dominated approaches while minimizing their respective weaknesses. This research is novel and unique as we have not found any research literature that focuses on a Hybrid Gates approach perspective or studies where the implementation of MO-ZOLP is: (1.) this large in scale and (2.) designed specifically to support a Stage Gate dominated environment. We believe that this research contributes to the practising educator and researcher by providing them with an alternative approach on R&D project portfolio management in complex organizations that are using a Stage Gate process. We also believe that this research is valuable to the practitioner by providing them with a practical process and methodology in which change management for such activities can be achieved. In addition, we assessed the on-going value added to the organization, thus linking theory to practice and finally, to outcome.

Abstract Groundwater, a key part of the hydrological cycle, is under increasing pressure from different land uses and changing climate. However, less attention has been paid to integrated groundwater management than surface waters. This thesis combined hydrological and socio-economic research for the case study of the Rokua esker aquifer in order to update current concepts of groundwater management. The Rokua area contains groundwater-dependent lakes and a periodic water level decline has raised concerns about the future of these lakes. Peatland drainage in the vicinity of the aquifer has been accused of changing the aquifer conditions. Groundwater discharge from the esker aquifer to drained peatland was studied to identify relevant hydrological processes for groundwater-surface water interactions. The results revealed a connection between the aquifer and the peatland whereby groundwater can enter the ditches through seepage or preferential flow. Modeling was used to determine critical factors in the management of the esker aquifer-peatland system. The results showed that climate and land use can affect esker groundwater, while peatland drainage in the vicinity can have similar impacts to groundwater abstraction and drought. Peatland restoration by filling in drainage ditches could possibly restore the aquifer groundwater levels. However, for the Rokua aquifer, which will possibly experience less severe dry periods in the future, extensive drainage restoration is currently too major, uncertain, and expensive a measure relative to the expected benefits. Multi-criteria decision analysis was used to identify ways of facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. The results obtained with this participatory process confirmed that it can foster learning on complicated groundwater issues and collaboration in a process encompassing disputes and diverse interests. The decision analysis process led to the initiation of dialogue on more integrated management, where the preferences of all stakeholders were discussed and taken into account. Overall, this thesis shows how different aspects of aquifer management, such as land use, climate, ecological and economic values, and stakeholder preferences, can all be taken into account using a combined method which reduces the mistrust between opposing interests through research and information, resulting in more robust future planning. / Tiivistelmä Pohjaveteen, hydrologisen kierron avainosaan, kohdistuu kasvavia paineita eri maankäytön muodoista ja ilmastonmuutoksesta. Pohjaveden hallintaan ei kuitenkaan ole kiinnitetty tarvittavaa huomiota. Tässä väitöstyössä yhdistettiin hydrologista ja sosioekonomista tutkimusta Rokuan harjualueella pohjaveden hallintakonseptin päivittämiseksi. Rokuan alueella on useita pohjavedestä riippuvaisia järviä, joiden vedenpinta on kausittain laskenut voimakkaasti. Pintojen lasku on kasvattanut paikallisten huolta järvien tilasta. Harjua ympäröivät metsäojitetut turvemaat, ja ojituksia on syytetty pohjaveden tilan ja sitä kautta myös järvien tilan heikkenemisestä. Työn ensimmäisessä osassa tutkittiin pohjaveden hydrologisia purkautumisprosesseja harjun pohjavesiesiintymästä ojitetulle suoalueelle. Tulokset osoittivat hydraulisen yhteyden akviferin ja turvemaan välillä: pohjavesi pääsi purkautumaan metsäojiin joko suotautumalla tai turpeen kaksoishuokoisuusrakenteiden kautta. Seuraavassa vaiheessa työtä pohjavesimallinnusta käytettiin määrittämään kriittisiä pohjaveden tilaan vaikuttavia tekijöitä pohjavesi-turvemaa-systeemissä. Mallinnustulosten perusteella niin ilmasto kuin maankäyttökin vaikuttavat kumpikin suoraan pohjaveden pinnankorkeuden tilaan. Turvemaiden ojituksilla pohjavesialueella voi olla samoja vaikutuksia pohjaveden pinnankorkeuden tasoihin kuin pohjaveden otolla tai kuivilla kausilla. Turvemaiden ennallistaminen ojia täyttämällä voi osittain palauttaa vedenpinnan tasoja pohjavesialueella. Rokuan harjualueen tapauksessa suuren mittakaavan oja-alueiden ennallistaminen todettiin kuitenkin liian epävarmaksi ja kalliiksi toimenpiteeksi hyötyihin nähden, varsinkin jos kuivien kausien vaikutus suurilla harjualueilla heikkenee tulevaisuudessa sademäärien kasvun myötä. Työn kolmannessa osassa käytettiin monitavoitearviointia eri sidosryhmien osallistamiseen ja oppimiseen pohjavesien hallinnassa. Osallistavasta prosessista saadut tulokset vahvistivat, että menetelmää voidaan käyttää oppimisen edesauttamiseen vaikeissa pohjavesiasioissa sekä yhteistyön muodostamiseen ristiriitaisessa ja monimutkaisessa tapauksessa. Monitavoitearvioinnin prosessi johti keskustelun avaukseen yhtenäisemmän suunnittelun puolesta, joka ottaa huomioon eri sidosryhmien näkökulmat ja tuo ne osaksi keskustelua. Tämä väitöstyö osoitti miten eri pohjavesialueen hallintaan tarvittavat näkökulmat, kuten maankäyttö, ilmasto, ekologiset ja ekonomiset arvot, sekä sidosryhmien mielipiteet voidaan kaikki ottaa huomioon yhdistämällä eri metodeja. Näin tutkimuksella ja informoinnilla vähennetään epäluottamusta eri intressitahojen välillä ja luodaan pohja vakaammalle pohjavesialueiden tulevaisuuden suunnittelulle.

Wind Power Project Development is a complicated, capital and resource-inclusive process, where a wide variety of factors have to be considered and several stakeholders have a significant say in the process. Decision making in such an environment is complex and has to be approached comprehensively. In order to sustain a structured and clear decision-making process, the sustainable energy industry has recognized Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method as a suitable set of tools to aid in the decision-making process. One of the MCDA tools – PROMETHEE II, has been examined in this master thesis, to evaluate its eligibility as a decision making aid in wind power project development. To structurally and realistically evaluate the tool, it has been applied to a case study in Ventspils region, in Latvia. The author of this thesis has a preliminary agreement with the owners of the sites to develop the project, therefore, this thesis has a strong potential for a practical implementation in future. Four scenarios have been developed for an evaluation, contributing to four variations of the different amount of turbines erected, with two different hub heights, on two differently sized sites. The scenarios are assessed based on the interests of six key stakeholders. Their opinion on twelve criteria is examined. Input data for each criterion has been generated via WindPro and MS Excel software or by authors assessment based on the researched literature. PROMETHEE II is used to extrapolate a comprehensive and clear representation of the results. The evaluation of the MCDA method proved that MCDA tools, and PROMETHEE II, in particular, can provide excellent support in decision making in wind power development. A wide variety of input data, as well as the various and often contradicting interests by different stakeholders, can be taken into account, while, at the same time, a clear result that can assist in decision making, is generated.  Wind Power Project Development is a complicated, capital and resource-inclusiveprocess, where a wide variety of factors have to be considered and severalstakeholders have a significant say in the process. Decision making in such anenvironment is complex and has to be approached comprehensively. In order to sustaina structured and clear decision making process, sustainable energy industry hasrecognized Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method as a suitable set of tools toaid in the decision making process. One of the MCDA tools – PROMETHEE II, hasbeen examined in this master thesis, to evaluate its eligibility as a decision making aidin wind power project development.To structurally and realistically evaluate the tool, it has been applied on a case study inVentspils region, in Latvia. The author of this thesis has a preliminary agreement withthe owners of the sites to develop the project, therefore, this thesis has a strongpotential for a practical implementation in future. Four scenarios have been developedfor an evaluation, contributing to four variations of different amount of turbines erected, with two different hub heights, on two differently sized sites. The scenarios are assessed based on the interests of six key stakeholders. Their opinion on twelve criteria examined. Input data for each criterion has been generated via WindPro and MS Excel software orby authors assessment based on the researched literature. PROMETHEE II is used to extrapolate a comprehensive and clear representation of the results.The evaluation of the MCDA method proved that MCDA tools, and PROMETHEE II in particular, can provide excellent support in decision making in wind power development. Wide variety of input data, as well as the various and often contradicting interests by different stakeholders can be taken into account, while, at the same time, a clear result that can assist in decision making, is generated.

This report analyses and describes how the bid/no-bid decisions are made at one ICT service company. The analysis is based on current available research within the area of multi criteria decision analysis to enhance the company’s decision process. It proposes how the bid engagement decision can be structured and evaluated. Through a questionnaire at the ICT company, data from its own bids was collected to identify the factors perceived to be relevant to the bid/no bid decision. It is found that the factors can vary depending on industry, market and potentially bid situation, requiring experts’ assessment of which factors to use for each bid situation. Concluding the study, an initial bid model is proposed, but with reservations due to lack of validation in real life situations. A recommendation to expand the existing bid model with probability distribution based risk estimates is made.

This thesis deals with the optimization of structural details for flat single-leaf roofs. In the first part of the thesis, 3 groups of structural details for flat roof (flat roof parapet, gutter at flat roof without overhang of the roof cladding, intersection of the flat roof and vertical supporting structure) are characterized, classified and examined. In every group one of these structural details is designed with use of modern composite material based on secondary raw materials (still in development process). The theory describes the current issue of thermal bridges at constructions and applicable legislative documents. The next part introduces thermal engineering analysis (based on finite element method) of structures with annotated data outputs. The another main part of thesis provides with designed innovative optimization algorithm using multi-criteria decision analysis methods, which is then practically tested on the surveyed construction details. The conclusion summarizes the results and provides with improvements based on completed research.

Bike share system (BSS) has received increasing attention in research for its potential economic and environmental benefits. However, some research has pointed out the negative sustainability impacts of BSS from rebalancing activity, due to its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and additional vehicle travels. Additionally, bike and station manufacturing also bring considerable emissions to the system. Therefore, it is important to analyze the current rebalancing efficiency and sustainability of BSSs, and to assist the BSS operators in optimizing the BSS design. Existing studies lack tools to estimate the real-world rebalancing activities and vehicle usage for system sustainability evaluation and improvements. To address this gap, this research first proposed a framework to estimate rebalancing activities and applied a clustering-based method to estimate the rebalancing vehicle use. Applying the framework to the BSSs in Chicago, Boston, and Los Angeles, this study estimated the rebalancing operation and compared the rebalancing efficiencies among the three systems. The analysis results show that 1) only a small proportion of stations and bikes were involved in the daily rebalancing activities; 2) most rebalancing activities were operated during the daytime, while the overnight rebalancing was limited; 3) the system scale, trip demand, and station types are critical for the rebalancing efficiency; and 4) reducing the rebalancing activities at self-rebalance stations could help to improve the rebalancing efficiency and benefits system sustainability. Additionally, the sustainability performance (e.g., carbon emissions) of BSS is not only decided by the rebalance, but also the manufacturing of bikes and stations. It is important to consider all these factors when optimizing a BSS. The existing literature on system improvement for the BSSs lacks an integrated view, and a well-designed integrated model for current BSS improvement is needed. The second part of this thesis built a simulation-based optimization model and generated 2400 scenarios for evaluation. This model aims to minimize the expansion investment, rebalancing mileage, and maximize the system demand and service rate. A Weight Sum Model is applied to solve the multi-criteria decision analysis. The model results show that the best system improvement is to build a new station with a small capacity and initial bikes. The investment and location impacts are discussed to find the tradeoff among expansion strategies. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to evaluate how different weight combinations (refer to different preferences in decision making) impact the preferred station configuration (docks and bikes) and new station locations.

The current decision-making processes involved in Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) in South Africa suffer from a lack of coherence and do not include evaluation of trade-offs between qualitative and quantitative impacts, as well as environmental, economic, and social dimensions. In addition, insufficient capacity and knowledge among authorities, a lack of objectivity among Environmental Assessment Practitioners (EAPs), and mediocre reports add to the problems associated with effective decision-making. This work presents a framework aimed at improving the effectiveness and objectivity of the decision-making process applied in South Africa’s EIAs in the energy sector. A number of decision-making models and tools are available to researchers and practitioners throughout the world that could potentially be applied in EIAs. Among these are Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM), and Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA). Each of the tools has its own advantages and disadvantages. With respect to the CBA, its biggest disadvantage is the fact that it requires conversion into monetary terms of all impacts, which is sometimes difficult to achieve. The RIAM, on the other hand, fails to provide a systematic approach to the ranking of alternatives. Both of these issues are addressed by the MCA tools. The MCA framework, furthermore, is universal, transparent, easy to replicate, and does not require a particularly large amount of labour and financial resources to complete. It is, however, subjective, but this shortcoming can be overcome by making the decision process more transparent. The framework proposed in this research paper is based on the Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) technique that allows the identification of the proposed development's cumulative impact versus the current status of the environment. It then compares possible alternatives, where available, in order to identify the most optimal solution. The proposed solution takes into account the trade-offs between the different impact metrics. The research methodology followed in this paper comprised four steps, namely:<ul><li> Selection of case studies, </li><li> Information collection, </li><li> Framework application and testing and </li><li> Feedback. </li></ul> The development of the framework followed an eight-step approach that is generic for MCA and was tested on two case studies that have already gone through the Environmental Impact Assessment process, i.e. the Open Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) plant in the Western Cape and the Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plant in the Northern Cape. The former was evaluated against the "no-go option", but included a decision tree comprised of impact areas, categories of impacts and dimensions (environmental, social, and economic). The latter included alternatives for four components of the project, but the decision tree comprised only of categories and dimensions. The effectiveness of the framework was verified by testing the results of the case studies against the recommendations proposed in the respective Environmental Impact Reports. In all cases, but one, the results of the framework correlated with the recommendations made by the Environmental Assessment Practitioners in the respective studies. In addition, a workshop with the decision-makers was held to obtain their viewpoints regarding the usefulness of the framework in their decision-making environment. These decision-makers supported the use of the framework in their environment as it offered an integrated and transparent approach to the evaluation of projects and alternatives. They emphasised, however, that the decision-making process was complex and the application of the framework alone would not be able to address all the challenges. The case studies demonstrated that the proposed framework could be successfully applied in the process of undertaking impact assessments in the energy sector. It can be used to determine the trade-offs between impacts and dimensions, while taking into consideration the opinions of specialists and decision-makers when assigning weights. The framework has the ability to clearly illustrate the benefit of introducing mitigation measures and it also indicates an alternative that produces the optimal cumulative impact. In conclusion, the work presented contributes to the new body of knowledge in the field of Environmental Impact Assessment in the energy sector as it will assist authorities in making objective and informed decisions, while ensuring greater transparency in the process. It also opens opportunities for conducting follow-on investigations, such the application of the framework in other sectors of the economy, undertaking a sensitivity analysis to compare the range of scores used in the evaluation of impacts, and investigating the possibility of acquiring input from Interested and Affected Parties (I&APs) and integrating those into the framework. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2011. / Graduate School of Technology Management (GSTM) / unrestricted

The Swedish Wind Energy Association (SWEA, 2019) reported the wind power project's total investment cost between 2017 and 2021 was over SEK 72 billion. They predicted that at project completion, the total production will be approximately 22.4 TWh per year. Due to project size, complexity, and long-term contracts commitments, almost all wind power project developers outsource some or most of their project activities to different subcontractors, after which they perform monitoring activities of the project process. Therefore, the pre-qualification stage and subcontractors’ evaluation become essential parts of every project. Most corporates and authorities are usually awarding projects to subcontractors with offers based on the most competitive price advantage. This approach results in high risks that can affect the delivery time, the overall cost, and the quality of wind power projects.This research paper aims to use a multi-criteria analysis to identify and select the most adequate subcontractor. To achieve the research purpose, a sample of five subcontractors nominated by a windpower developer were evaluated in a selection phase under nine criteria: (1) management capability, (2) product or service quality, (3) planning and capabilities, (4) quality assessment,(5) environmental management, (6) health and safety measures, (7) financial strength, (8) contract insurances and guaranties, and (9) cost. After the evaluation and the ranking of companies, a result of the most adequate subcontractor for the project offer was presented. At the end of this study, a comparison analysis was followed at the final stage which compared the method with a similar procurement approach used by one corporate where it showed that this paper’s method can uncover critical aspects with subcontracts which can alter the selection process.