This dissertation is intended to provide a statistical foundation for the IV models and shed lights on a number of issues related to the IV method. The first chapter shows that the theoretical Instrumental Variable model can be derived by reparameterization of a well-specified statistical model defined on the joint distribution of the involved random variables as the actual (local) data generation process. This reveals the covariance structure of the error terms of the usual theory-driven instrumental variable model. The revealed covariance structure of the IV model have important implications, particularly, for designing simulation studies. Monte Carlo simulations are used to reexamine the Nelson and Startz (1990a) findings regarding the performance of IV estimators when the instruments are weak. The results from the simulation exercises indicate that the sampling distribution of ^Î _IV is concentrated around ^Î _OLS. The second chapter considers the underlying joint distribution function of the instrumental variable (IV) model and presents an alternative definition for the exogenous and relevant instruments. The paper extracts a system of independent and orthogonal equations that covers up a non-orthogonal structural model and argues that the estimated IV regression is well-specified if the underlying system of equations is well-specified. It proposes a new instrument relevancy measure that does not suffer from the first-stage <i>R²</i> deficiencies. Third chapter argues the application of the IV method in estimation of models with omitted variable. The paper considers the implicit parametrization of statistical models and presents five conditions for an appropriate instruments. Two of them are empirically measurable and can be tested. This improves the literature by adding one more objective criterion for the selection of instruments. This chapter applies the IV method to estimate the rate of return to education in Iran. It argues that the education of two cohorts of Iranians was delayed or cut short by the Cultural Revolution. Therefore, the Cultural Revolution, as an exogenous shock to the supply of education, establishes the year of birth as the exogenous and relevant instrument for education. Using the standard Mincerian earnings function with control for experience, ethnicity, location of residence and sector of employment, the instrumental variable estimate of the return to schooling is equal to 5.6&#37;. The estimation results indicate that the Iranian labor market values degrees more than years of schooling. / Ph. D.

<p>I examine how employing workers with specific human capital affects capital structure decisions by employers. Based on plant-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, I use the opening of new plants as an exogenous reduction in human capital specificity-- the inability to transfer specific skill sets across employers--for incumbent workers in a local labor market. My results indicate that the opening of a new manufacturing plant in a given county leads to a 2.6-3.9% increase in the leverage of existing manufacturing firms in the county, relative to the leverage of manufacturing firms in an otherwise comparable county. Moreover, plant openings have a larger impact on firms that are more likely to share labor with the new plant, that have high labor intensity, and that have high marginal tax benefits of debt. Alternative explanations concerning productivity spillovers, product market competition, and county-wide shocks do not appear to account for the results. I find consistent evidence in a separate sample that contains a broad panel of firms. Overall, these results suggest that human capital specificity raises the cost of debt and thus decreases optimal leverage.</p> / Dissertation

Left-hand drive (LHD) vehicles share higher road accident risks under left-hand traffic because of blind spot areas. Due to low import prices, the number of wrong-hand drive vehicles skyrockets in emerging countries like Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. I identify the causal effect of wrong-hand drive vehicles on road safety employing a new “backward version” of the synthetic control method. Sweden switched from left-hand to right-hand traffic in 1967. Before 1967, however, almost all Swedish vehicles were LHD for reasons of international trade and Swedish customer demand. I match on accident figures in the period after 1967, when both Sweden and other European countries drove on the right and used LHD vehicles. Results show that right-hand traffic decreased road fatality, injury and accident risk in Sweden by approximately 30 percent. An earlier switch would have saved more than 4,000 lives between 1953 and 1966.

Natural hazards are an important way for individuals to experience consequences of climate change. It has therefore been suggested that natural hazards could act as opportunities to increase individuals’ concerns about, and willingness to act on, climate change. The empirical evidence within the field is however mixed. Moreover, the research field is drawn back by methodological shortcomings, as studies rarely have been able to make valid pre-hazard assessments. A more accurate estimation of a possible causal effect is enabled in this study, as a survey mapping climate change opinions was conducted in Germany when the country was hit by a rare and severe hazard event, namely the European Floods. This provides an opportunity to examine the effect of hazard exposure on individuals’ levels of climate change concerns and willingness to adopt climate change-related actions. Three sets of hypotheses are tested using two-sample t-tests. The findings suggest that natural hazards have limited potential to act as teachable moments; climate change concerns may increase, but not willingness to take action. Political ideology is found to slightly moderate the effect between hazard exposure and climate change concerns, but only among right-leaning individuals. These findings make an important contribution to a mixed research field.

Contexte : Les interventions sur l'environnement bâti reliées au transport peuvent contribuer à l'augmentation de la pratique de l'activité physique. En tant qu’intervention, les programmes de vélos en libre-service (PVLS) peuvent contribuer à l’utilisation du vélo. BIXI© (nom qui fusionne les mots BIcyclette et taXI) est un programme de vélos en libre-service implanté à Montréal, au Canada, en mai 2009. Le programme BIXI© met à la disposition des gens 5050 vélos à 405 bornes d’ancrage. Objectif : L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'étudier l'impact d'un programme de vélos en libre-service sur l’utilisation du vélo. Les objectifs spécifiques de la thèse sont de : 1) Estimer la prévalence populationnelle et identifier des variables environnementales, sociodémographiques et comportementales associées à l’utilisation des vélos en libre-service. 2) Estimer l’impact populationnel de l’implantation des vélos en libre-service sur l’utilisation du vélo et les contributions respectives de l’utilisation du vélo pour des fins utilitaires et récréatives à l’utilisation totale du vélo. 3) Estimer l’impact local de l’implantation des vélos en libre-service sur l’utilisation du vélo. Méthodes : Un devis populationnel transversal avec mesures répétées. Des enquêtes ont été réalisées au moment du lancement du programme de vélos en libre-service (4 mai au 10 juin, 2009), à la fin de la première année d’implantation (8 octobre au 12 décembre, 2009), et à la fin de la deuxième année d’implantation (8 novembre au 12 décembre, 2010). Les échantillons se composaient de 2001 (âge moyen = 49,4 années, 56,7 % de femmes), 2502 (âge moyen = 47,8 ans, 61,8 % de femmes) et 2509 (âge moyen = 48,9 années, 59,0 % de femmes) adultes à chaque période de mesure respectivement. Résultats : Globalement, les résultats démontrent le potentiel des PVLS pour augmenter l’utilisation du vélo. Les résultats suggèrent que près de 128 744 habitants ou 8,1 % de la population adulte ont utilisé les vélos BIXI© au moins une fois dans la première saison. Après deux ans d’implantation, ceux qui sont exposés à BIXI© dans leur milieu résidentiel avaient une probabilité significativement plus élevée d’utiliser le vélo par rapport à ceux non exposés. Par contre, il n'y avait aucun impact local de l’implantation du programme BIXI© sur l’utilisation du vélo. Conclusions : L’implantation d'un PVLS à Montréal a augmenté la probabilité d’utiliser le vélo chez les individus habitant près d'une borne d'ancrage. Mots clés : programme de vélos en libre-service, expérience naturelle, santé des populations. / Background: Interventions in transportation and the built environment have the potential to increasing physical activity. Public bicycle share programs (PBSP) are one such intervention which may contribute to increasing cycling and physical activity. BIXI© (name merges the words BIcycle and taXI) is a public bicycle share programs launched in Montreal, Canada in May 2009. BIXI© makes available 5050 bicycles at 405 docking stations. Purpose: The overarching aim of this dissertation is to estimate the impact of a built environment intervention on cycling using. The specific research objectives are: 1) To estimate the population prevalence and identify built environment, sociodemographic and behavioural correlates of public bicycle share program use. 2) To estimate the population level impact of implementing a public bicycle share program on cycling and the contribution of utilitarian and recreational cycling to overall cycling. 3) To estimate the local impact of implementing a public bicycle share program on cycling. Methods: A population-based repeat, cross sectional time series design was used. The population of the Island of Montreal was sampled at three time points. Surveys were conducted at launch of the public bicycle share program (May 4th - June 10th 2009), at the end of the first year of implementation (October 8th - December 12th 2009), and at the end of the second year 2 of implementation (November 8th - December 12th 2010). Samples consisted of 2001 (Mean age=49.4 years, 56.7% female), 2502 (Mean age=47.8 years, 61.8% female), and 2509 (Mean age=48.9 years, 59.0% female) adults at the each time period. Results: Overall the results provide a proof of concept for the potential of PBSPs to increase cycling. Approximately 128,744 inhabitants or 8.1% of the adult population used BIXI© bicycles at least once in the first season. Respondents exposed to BIXI© at their residence after two years had a significantly greater likelihood of all forms cycling. However, there was no local impact of the BIXI© intervention on cycling. Conclusions: The implementation of a PBSP in Montreal had increased all forms of cycling in areas where it was deployed.

The thesis deals with the estimation of labour supply responses to the personal income tax reform in the Czech Republic adopted in 2008 by applying quasi experimental design known as "difference-in-differences". By exploiting the different change in the effective tax rates for various population subgroups as a natural experiment and using microdata from European Labour Force Sur- vey we constructed the treatment and control groups according to the highest attained level of education serving as a proxy for an income range that assigns an individual to the particular tax bracket before and after policy change. Analysing one-person households we found significant negative effect on the labour force participation and significant positive effect on the hours work of the treated by comparing these outcomes for the treatment and control groups in the baseline and follow up periods before and after the reform. JEL Classification C21, D04, H24, H31, I38, J22 Keywords tax reform, labour supply, natural experiment, difference-in-differences Author's e-mail janxtomo@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail gebicka@fsv.cuni.cz

Explaining the rising support for right-wing populist parties in Europe during the last decade is an issue that interests both economists, sociologists and political scientists. A number of theories suggest that the rising inflow of migrants to Europe has had an important causal effect on right-wing populist support. However, as migration patterns generally are not exogenous to right-wing populist support, it is difficult to interpret the estimates of a correlation study causally.  In this paper, I exploit a Swedish refugee dispersal program as a natural experiment to estimate the effect of refugee inflow on the support for the right-wing populist party the Sweden Democrats using an instrumental variable strategy. Despite detailed institutional knowledge, I am not able to find support for any short-term effects of refugee inflow on the self-reported preferences for the Sweden Democrats. This goes against the findings of most previous studies.  However, the multicollinearity of some of my covariates are high. In addition, as the program was introduced in 2016, there are few years available for identification. Thus, the precision of the estimates is relatively low and the study would benefit from adding more years to the panel data set.

Este trabalho emprega métodos quantitativos a dados de Demonstrações Financeiras para avaliar a existência de relação de causalidade entre a Lei 12.249 de 11 de junho de 2010, que institui normas de subcapitalização no Brasil, e a estrutura de capital de empresas brasileiras que possuem partes vinculadas no exterior. Esta lei estabeleceu limites ao endividamento oriundo de tais partes vinculadas para que os respectivos juros pagos sejam considerados dedutíveis para fins da apuração de tributos sobre o lucro e foi usada como intervenção exógena na análise proposta. Os dados são oriundos de empresas fechadas e de empresas públicas, coletados manualmente, em jornais publicamente disponíveis, e na base de dados Economatica® e foi obtida uma amostra inicial de 2,070 observações. Após exclusão daquelas com Patrimônio Líquido negativo, restaram 1,816 observações em um painel não balanceado, subamostra usada para estimação com o método principal de investigação deste trabalho, que foi o de Diferenças-em-diferenças (DD). Neste, a variável dependente consistiu da razão entre dívida onerosa total e Ativo Total, observados anualmente no período compreendido entre o ano de 2006 e ano de 2014. Este método foi estimado por OLS seus resultados foram complementados com o pareamento de observações por meio de quatro procedimentos de propensity score matching (PSM), one-to-one, nearest neighbour, radius e kernel, em que a variável resposta consistiu da diferença, observada entre o ano de 2011 e o ano de 2009, dos valores da variável resposta descrita anteriormente. Para estimação por meio de matching, foram excluídas observações de empresas que variaram a composição societária ao longo do período de forma a possuir partes vinculadas estrangeiras em determinado momento e não possuí-las mais tarde e também foram excluídas aquelas empresas que não possuem observações durante todo o período avaliado, obtendo-se um painel balanceado com 114 empresas e 1,026 observações. O propensity score obtido foi ainda empregado para ponderar as observações no modelo previamente estimado com o método DD. As variáveis de controle empregadas tanto no DD quanto na estimação do propensity score consistiram dos valores de Ativo Imobilizado, Vendas Líquidas, Lucro Bruto e Patrimônio Líquido, obsevados anualmente e dividido pelo Ativo Total. Os resultados obtidos não foram significantes aos níveis convencionais de confiança, apontando para possível redução da relação entre dívida total e Ativo Total das empresas do grupo tratamento em valores que variaram entre 4.17% e 0.5% em termos de Ativo Total, dependendo do método e modelo estimados. Observa-se que tanto a variável resposta quanto o endividamento oneroso total das empresas de ambos os grupos parecem ter aumentado durante o período investigado, mas a variável resposta, aparentemente, já apresentava crescimento menos acentuado nas empresas do grupo tratamento antes do advento da lei, não sendo possível concluir que esta seja a causa da tendência de decréscimo da relação entre dívida e Ativo Total no grupo de empresas que possuem partes vinculadas estrangeiras. Ressalvadas as limitações do estudo, conclui-se que a lei não teve efeito sobre o endividamento total e, portanto, sem efeitos sobre a arrecadação de tributos sobre o lucro destas empresas. / This work applies quantitative methods to data from Financial Statements to assess the existence of a causal relationship between the Law 12,249 of June 11, 2010, which establishes thin capitalization rules in Brazil, and the capital structure of Brazilian companies that keep foreign related parties. This law established limits to the tax deductibility arising from interest payments to such related parties and was here employed as a source of exogenous variation to perform the proposed analysis. The data came from private and public companies, were manually collected, from publicly available newspapers, and obtained from the Economatica database. An initial sample of 2,070 observations was obtained. After the exclusion of those with negative Equity, there were 1,816 observations composing an unbalanced panel, sub-sample which was used for estimation with the main research method of this investigation, which was the Differences-in-differences (DD) method. A dependent variable consisted of the ratio between total costly debt and Total Asset, observed annually in the period between the years 2006 and 2014. This method has been estimated by OLS and its results were complemented with the pairing of companies by means of four matching methods: One-to-one, nearest neighbour, radius, and kernel, where the response variable consisted of the difference between the dependent variable\'s values observed in the years 2011 and 2009. To estimate the laws\' effects by means of matching procedures, data from companies that showed variation at the societal composition in such a way that led them to have foreign related parties in less than the whole period and from those companies that do not have data throughout the whole period evaluated were excluded, and a balanced panel with 114 companies and 1,026 observations remained. Yet again, the obtained propensity score was applied as weight for another OLS DD estimation. Control variables consisted of the values of Fixed Assets, Net Sales, Gross Profits and Shareholders\' Equity, reported annually and divided by Total Assets. The results obtained were not significant at any conventional confidence levels, nevertheless pointing to a reduction of the treatment group companies\' ratio between debt and Total Assets which varied between 4.17% and 0.5% of Total Assets, depending on the estimated method and model. It appears that the companies\' both response variable and total costly indebtedness increased during the period analysed, but the response variable seems to have already presented a less pronounced growth in the treatment group\'s companies before the existence of the law, therefore making it not possible to conclude that this legislation piece is the cause of the downward trend in the ratio between debt and Total Assets of companies that keep foreign related parties. Subject to this study\'s limitations, it is possible to conclude that the law had no effect on total indebtedness and, therefore, had no effect on profit taxes base erosion regarding this group of companies.

Esta tese é composta de três ensaios empíricos sobre finanças corporativas e macrofinanças, todos eles aplicados ao Brasil. O primeiro mostra como uma mudanças tributárias no nível do acionista podem afetar as decisões financeiras das empresas investidas, através da estrutura de propriedade. Os resultados sugerem que as empresas ajustam suas políticas financeiras para minimizar os gastos tributários totais (nível do acionista mais nível da firma). No segundo artigo, analisa-se a relação entre o investimento estrangeiro em carteira (EFPI) e o investimento agregado brasileiro. Os resultados mostram que o EFPI tem um impacto marginal positivo na formação bruta de capital fixo, mas que essa relação é condicionada a fatores institucionais, tal como o grau de intervenção do governo no mercado de crédito. Finalmente, no terceiro ensaio, mostro que um aumento exógeno dos preços dos ativos colateralizáveis imobiliários pode ter consequências positivas no financiamento e investimento das empresas. As firmas aparentemente mais beneficiadas pelo ciclo expansionista de crédito observado no Brasil durante os anos 2000 foram justamente aquelas com menor grau de tangibilidade, potencialmente fora do mercado de crédito no período anterior. / In this thesis, I present three empirical essays on corporate finance and macro-finance applied to Brazil. In the first one, I show that an exogenous tax change at the investor level can have real effects on the invested firms’ behavior. My evidence suggests that treated firms adjust their financial policies considering substitute financial instruments and seeking to minimize overall tax spending. In the second paper, I analyze the role of equity foreign portfolio investment (EFPI) on affecting aggregate investment. The results show that EFPI has a marginal positive impact on the gross capital formation, but this relation seems to be contingent on institutional factors such as government intervention in credit markets. Finally, in the third essay, I show that an exogenous increase in collateral prices can have positive consequences on firms’ financing and investment decisions. The credit expansion registered in Brazil in the middle of the 2000’s seem to have alleviated financial constraints most for smaller, less tangible firms, which probably were (at least partially) out of the credit market before the boom.

Il primo capitolo studia le decisioni di pensionamento dei lavoratori dipendenti nel settore-privato atraverso un approccio in forma quas-ridotta . seguendo il lavoro di stock e wise (1990), vengono modellate le decisioni individuali concentrandosi sugli incentivi insiti nel sistema pensionistico italiano catturate dalla ricchezza pensionistica e da altre misure di incentivo. il secondo capitolo consolida i risultati del primo e riconosce che attraverso un approccio detto esperimento naturale e l'utilizzo di variazioni esogene generate dalla riforma pensionistica del 1992 si può migliorare in termini di identificazione dell'effetto della ricchezza pensionistica sulla decisione di pensionamento. il capitolo contiene anche un insieme di simulazioni che predicono il comportamento dei lavoratori con diversi regimi pensionistici e rappresenta un test della validità predittiva del modello usato nel primo capitolo. il terzo capitolo è un'applicazione del modello option value in cui vengono stimati i parametri delle funzioni di utilità, e dove i lavoratori decidono quando andare in pensione confrontando il valore atteso di lavorare un anno aggiuntivo con il valore atteso di andare in pensione subito. / The first chapter studies the exit behaviour of private-sector employees through a simple "quasi-reduced form" approach. Starting from the seminal paper by Stock and Wise (1990), it models individual determinants of retirement choices focusing on the incentives embedded in the Italian Social Security system, captured by Social Security wealth and some incentive measures. The second chapter exploits the results of the first and it is devoted to their consolidation Using a different framework, namely that of a "natural experiment", much more can be gained in terms of identification of the relevant incentive effects by means of the exogenous variation introduced by the reform legislated in 1992. Further, the chapter contains a set of simulations in order to test the predictive validity of the results in the first chapter and to know how the exit behaviour of workers would have been under different pension regimes. The last chapter is an application of the option value model. It requires the estimation of the utility parameters of the model where workers compare the expected utility of working one more year and the expected utility of retiring immediately.