Contexte : Les interventions sur l'environnement bâti reliées au transport peuvent contribuer à l'augmentation de la pratique de l'activité physique. En tant qu’intervention, les programmes de vélos en libre-service (PVLS) peuvent contribuer à l’utilisation du vélo. BIXI© (nom qui fusionne les mots BIcyclette et taXI) est un programme de vélos en libre-service implanté à Montréal, au Canada, en mai 2009. Le programme BIXI© met à la disposition des gens 5050 vélos à 405 bornes d’ancrage. Objectif : L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'étudier l'impact d'un programme de vélos en libre-service sur l’utilisation du vélo. Les objectifs spécifiques de la thèse sont de : 1) Estimer la prévalence populationnelle et identifier des variables environnementales, sociodémographiques et comportementales associées à l’utilisation des vélos en libre-service. 2) Estimer l’impact populationnel de l’implantation des vélos en libre-service sur l’utilisation du vélo et les contributions respectives de l’utilisation du vélo pour des fins utilitaires et récréatives à l’utilisation totale du vélo. 3) Estimer l’impact local de l’implantation des vélos en libre-service sur l’utilisation du vélo. Méthodes : Un devis populationnel transversal avec mesures répétées. Des enquêtes ont été réalisées au moment du lancement du programme de vélos en libre-service (4 mai au 10 juin, 2009), à la fin de la première année d’implantation (8 octobre au 12 décembre, 2009), et à la fin de la deuxième année d’implantation (8 novembre au 12 décembre, 2010). Les échantillons se composaient de 2001 (âge moyen = 49,4 années, 56,7 % de femmes), 2502 (âge moyen = 47,8 ans, 61,8 % de femmes) et 2509 (âge moyen = 48,9 années, 59,0 % de femmes) adultes à chaque période de mesure respectivement. Résultats : Globalement, les résultats démontrent le potentiel des PVLS pour augmenter l’utilisation du vélo. Les résultats suggèrent que près de 128 744 habitants ou 8,1 % de la population adulte ont utilisé les vélos BIXI© au moins une fois dans la première saison. Après deux ans d’implantation, ceux qui sont exposés à BIXI© dans leur milieu résidentiel avaient une probabilité significativement plus élevée d’utiliser le vélo par rapport à ceux non exposés. Par contre, il n'y avait aucun impact local de l’implantation du programme BIXI© sur l’utilisation du vélo. Conclusions : L’implantation d'un PVLS à Montréal a augmenté la probabilité d’utiliser le vélo chez les individus habitant près d'une borne d'ancrage. Mots clés : programme de vélos en libre-service, expérience naturelle, santé des populations. / Background: Interventions in transportation and the built environment have the potential to increasing physical activity. Public bicycle share programs (PBSP) are one such intervention which may contribute to increasing cycling and physical activity. BIXI© (name merges the words BIcycle and taXI) is a public bicycle share programs launched in Montreal, Canada in May 2009. BIXI© makes available 5050 bicycles at 405 docking stations. Purpose: The overarching aim of this dissertation is to estimate the impact of a built environment intervention on cycling using. The specific research objectives are: 1) To estimate the population prevalence and identify built environment, sociodemographic and behavioural correlates of public bicycle share program use. 2) To estimate the population level impact of implementing a public bicycle share program on cycling and the contribution of utilitarian and recreational cycling to overall cycling. 3) To estimate the local impact of implementing a public bicycle share program on cycling. Methods: A population-based repeat, cross sectional time series design was used. The population of the Island of Montreal was sampled at three time points. Surveys were conducted at launch of the public bicycle share program (May 4th - June 10th 2009), at the end of the first year of implementation (October 8th - December 12th 2009), and at the end of the second year 2 of implementation (November 8th - December 12th 2010). Samples consisted of 2001 (Mean age=49.4 years, 56.7% female), 2502 (Mean age=47.8 years, 61.8% female), and 2509 (Mean age=48.9 years, 59.0% female) adults at the each time period. Results: Overall the results provide a proof of concept for the potential of PBSPs to increase cycling. Approximately 128,744 inhabitants or 8.1% of the adult population used BIXI© bicycles at least once in the first season. Respondents exposed to BIXI© at their residence after two years had a significantly greater likelihood of all forms cycling. However, there was no local impact of the BIXI© intervention on cycling. Conclusions: The implementation of a PBSP in Montreal had increased all forms of cycling in areas where it was deployed.

Esta tese é composta de três ensaios empíricos sobre finanças corporativas e macrofinanças, todos eles aplicados ao Brasil. O primeiro mostra como uma mudanças tributárias no nível do acionista podem afetar as decisões financeiras das empresas investidas, através da estrutura de propriedade. Os resultados sugerem que as empresas ajustam suas políticas financeiras para minimizar os gastos tributários totais (nível do acionista mais nível da firma). No segundo artigo, analisa-se a relação entre o investimento estrangeiro em carteira (EFPI) e o investimento agregado brasileiro. Os resultados mostram que o EFPI tem um impacto marginal positivo na formação bruta de capital fixo, mas que essa relação é condicionada a fatores institucionais, tal como o grau de intervenção do governo no mercado de crédito. Finalmente, no terceiro ensaio, mostro que um aumento exógeno dos preços dos ativos colateralizáveis imobiliários pode ter consequências positivas no financiamento e investimento das empresas. As firmas aparentemente mais beneficiadas pelo ciclo expansionista de crédito observado no Brasil durante os anos 2000 foram justamente aquelas com menor grau de tangibilidade, potencialmente fora do mercado de crédito no período anterior. / In this thesis, I present three empirical essays on corporate finance and macro-finance applied to Brazil. In the first one, I show that an exogenous tax change at the investor level can have real effects on the invested firms’ behavior. My evidence suggests that treated firms adjust their financial policies considering substitute financial instruments and seeking to minimize overall tax spending. In the second paper, I analyze the role of equity foreign portfolio investment (EFPI) on affecting aggregate investment. The results show that EFPI has a marginal positive impact on the gross capital formation, but this relation seems to be contingent on institutional factors such as government intervention in credit markets. Finally, in the third essay, I show that an exogenous increase in collateral prices can have positive consequences on firms’ financing and investment decisions. The credit expansion registered in Brazil in the middle of the 2000’s seem to have alleviated financial constraints most for smaller, less tangible firms, which probably were (at least partially) out of the credit market before the boom.

Esta tese é composta de três ensaios empíricos sobre finanças corporativas e macrofinanças, todos eles aplicados ao Brasil. O primeiro mostra como uma mudanças tributárias no nível do acionista podem afetar as decisões financeiras das empresas investidas, através da estrutura de propriedade. Os resultados sugerem que as empresas ajustam suas políticas financeiras para minimizar os gastos tributários totais (nível do acionista mais nível da firma). No segundo artigo, analisa-se a relação entre o investimento estrangeiro em carteira (EFPI) e o investimento agregado brasileiro. Os resultados mostram que o EFPI tem um impacto marginal positivo na formação bruta de capital fixo, mas que essa relação é condicionada a fatores institucionais, tal como o grau de intervenção do governo no mercado de crédito. Finalmente, no terceiro ensaio, mostro que um aumento exógeno dos preços dos ativos colateralizáveis imobiliários pode ter consequências positivas no financiamento e investimento das empresas. As firmas aparentemente mais beneficiadas pelo ciclo expansionista de crédito observado no Brasil durante os anos 2000 foram justamente aquelas com menor grau de tangibilidade, potencialmente fora do mercado de crédito no período anterior. / In this thesis, I present three empirical essays on corporate finance and macro-finance applied to Brazil. In the first one, I show that an exogenous tax change at the investor level can have real effects on the invested firms’ behavior. My evidence suggests that treated firms adjust their financial policies considering substitute financial instruments and seeking to minimize overall tax spending. In the second paper, I analyze the role of equity foreign portfolio investment (EFPI) on affecting aggregate investment. The results show that EFPI has a marginal positive impact on the gross capital formation, but this relation seems to be contingent on institutional factors such as government intervention in credit markets. Finally, in the third essay, I show that an exogenous increase in collateral prices can have positive consequences on firms’ financing and investment decisions. The credit expansion registered in Brazil in the middle of the 2000’s seem to have alleviated financial constraints most for smaller, less tangible firms, which probably were (at least partially) out of the credit market before the boom.

Este trabalho emprega métodos quantitativos a dados de Demonstrações Financeiras para avaliar a existência de relação de causalidade entre a Lei 12.249 de 11 de junho de 2010, que institui normas de subcapitalização no Brasil, e a estrutura de capital de empresas brasileiras que possuem partes vinculadas no exterior. Esta lei estabeleceu limites ao endividamento oriundo de tais partes vinculadas para que os respectivos juros pagos sejam considerados dedutíveis para fins da apuração de tributos sobre o lucro e foi usada como intervenção exógena na análise proposta. Os dados são oriundos de empresas fechadas e de empresas públicas, coletados manualmente, em jornais publicamente disponíveis, e na base de dados Economatica® e foi obtida uma amostra inicial de 2,070 observações. Após exclusão daquelas com Patrimônio Líquido negativo, restaram 1,816 observações em um painel não balanceado, subamostra usada para estimação com o método principal de investigação deste trabalho, que foi o de Diferenças-em-diferenças (DD). Neste, a variável dependente consistiu da razão entre dívida onerosa total e Ativo Total, observados anualmente no período compreendido entre o ano de 2006 e ano de 2014. Este método foi estimado por OLS seus resultados foram complementados com o pareamento de observações por meio de quatro procedimentos de propensity score matching (PSM), one-to-one, nearest neighbour, radius e kernel, em que a variável resposta consistiu da diferença, observada entre o ano de 2011 e o ano de 2009, dos valores da variável resposta descrita anteriormente. Para estimação por meio de matching, foram excluídas observações de empresas que variaram a composição societária ao longo do período de forma a possuir partes vinculadas estrangeiras em determinado momento e não possuí-las mais tarde e também foram excluídas aquelas empresas que não possuem observações durante todo o período avaliado, obtendo-se um painel balanceado com 114 empresas e 1,026 observações. O propensity score obtido foi ainda empregado para ponderar as observações no modelo previamente estimado com o método DD. As variáveis de controle empregadas tanto no DD quanto na estimação do propensity score consistiram dos valores de Ativo Imobilizado, Vendas Líquidas, Lucro Bruto e Patrimônio Líquido, obsevados anualmente e dividido pelo Ativo Total. Os resultados obtidos não foram significantes aos níveis convencionais de confiança, apontando para possível redução da relação entre dívida total e Ativo Total das empresas do grupo tratamento em valores que variaram entre 4.17% e 0.5% em termos de Ativo Total, dependendo do método e modelo estimados. Observa-se que tanto a variável resposta quanto o endividamento oneroso total das empresas de ambos os grupos parecem ter aumentado durante o período investigado, mas a variável resposta, aparentemente, já apresentava crescimento menos acentuado nas empresas do grupo tratamento antes do advento da lei, não sendo possível concluir que esta seja a causa da tendência de decréscimo da relação entre dívida e Ativo Total no grupo de empresas que possuem partes vinculadas estrangeiras. Ressalvadas as limitações do estudo, conclui-se que a lei não teve efeito sobre o endividamento total e, portanto, sem efeitos sobre a arrecadação de tributos sobre o lucro destas empresas. / This work applies quantitative methods to data from Financial Statements to assess the existence of a causal relationship between the Law 12,249 of June 11, 2010, which establishes thin capitalization rules in Brazil, and the capital structure of Brazilian companies that keep foreign related parties. This law established limits to the tax deductibility arising from interest payments to such related parties and was here employed as a source of exogenous variation to perform the proposed analysis. The data came from private and public companies, were manually collected, from publicly available newspapers, and obtained from the Economatica database. An initial sample of 2,070 observations was obtained. After the exclusion of those with negative Equity, there were 1,816 observations composing an unbalanced panel, sub-sample which was used for estimation with the main research method of this investigation, which was the Differences-in-differences (DD) method. A dependent variable consisted of the ratio between total costly debt and Total Asset, observed annually in the period between the years 2006 and 2014. This method has been estimated by OLS and its results were complemented with the pairing of companies by means of four matching methods: One-to-one, nearest neighbour, radius, and kernel, where the response variable consisted of the difference between the dependent variable\'s values observed in the years 2011 and 2009. To estimate the laws\' effects by means of matching procedures, data from companies that showed variation at the societal composition in such a way that led them to have foreign related parties in less than the whole period and from those companies that do not have data throughout the whole period evaluated were excluded, and a balanced panel with 114 companies and 1,026 observations remained. Yet again, the obtained propensity score was applied as weight for another OLS DD estimation. Control variables consisted of the values of Fixed Assets, Net Sales, Gross Profits and Shareholders\' Equity, reported annually and divided by Total Assets. The results obtained were not significant at any conventional confidence levels, nevertheless pointing to a reduction of the treatment group companies\' ratio between debt and Total Assets which varied between 4.17% and 0.5% of Total Assets, depending on the estimated method and model. It appears that the companies\' both response variable and total costly indebtedness increased during the period analysed, but the response variable seems to have already presented a less pronounced growth in the treatment group\'s companies before the existence of the law, therefore making it not possible to conclude that this legislation piece is the cause of the downward trend in the ratio between debt and Total Assets of companies that keep foreign related parties. Subject to this study\'s limitations, it is possible to conclude that the law had no effect on total indebtedness and, therefore, had no effect on profit taxes base erosion regarding this group of companies.

Left-hand drive (LHD) vehicles share higher road accident risks under left-hand traffic because of blind spot areas. Due to low import prices, the number of wrong-hand drive vehicles skyrockets in emerging countries like Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. I identify the causal effect of wrong-hand drive vehicles on road safety employing a new “backward version” of the synthetic control method. Sweden switched from left-hand to right-hand traffic in 1967. Before 1967, however, almost all Swedish vehicles were LHD for reasons of international trade and Swedish customer demand. I match on accident figures in the period after 1967, when both Sweden and other European countries drove on the right and used LHD vehicles. Results show that right-hand traffic decreased road fatality, injury and accident risk in Sweden by approximately 30 percent. An earlier switch would have saved more than 4,000 lives between 1953 and 1966.

Die erste Arbeit untersucht die Einschulungseffekte des indischen Midday Meal Scheme, das größte Schulessenprogramm der Welt. Um die kausalen Effekte der Strategie zu isolieren, benutzen wir die schrittweise Implementierung des Programms in Indiens Staaten in öffentlichen, aber nicht privaten Schulen. Wir finden einen substanziellen Zuwachs der Einschulung an Grundschulen. Die zweite Arbeit untersucht die Korrelation zwischen unternehmerischem Versuch und Startup und lokaler religiöser Diversität. Wir finden heraus, dass die Orte mit höherer religiöser Diversität mit einer höheren individuellen Wahrscheinlichkeit assoziiert sind, ein neues Unternehmen zu versuchen zu gründen, aber nicht es zum Erfolg zu führen. Die dritte Arbeit modelliert einen Markt in dem Konsumenten gegenüber den Arbeitern Altruismus empfinden und ein wohliges Gefühl davon ableiten, Produkte von Firmen zu kaufen, die zumindest einen Mindestlohn bezahlen. Symmetrische reine Strategie Equilibria werden analyisiert in einem Zufalls-Nutzenmodell mit einem Kontinuum an Konsumenten und n Firmen. / The first paper is a large-scale assessment of the enrollment effects of India''s midday meal scheme, the largest school feeding program in the world. To isolate the causal effect, we make use of staggered implementation across Indian states in public but not private schools. We find a substantial increase in primary school enrollment. The second paper studies the correlation between entrepreneurial trial and startup and local religious diversity. We find that localities with higher religious diversity are associated with a higher individual probability of trying to set up a new venture, but not of setting it up. The third paper models a market where consumers feel altruism towards workers and derive a warm-glow from buying products of firms that pay at least a minimum wage. Symmetric pure-strategy equilibria are analyzed in a random utility model with a continuum of consumers and n firms.

L’aléa moral est une source de distorsion économique. La prédiction classique dans un cadre simple est qu’une meilleure couverture conduit à un effort moindre. Cette thèse étudie dans quelle mesure cette prédiction est ou non vérifiée empiriquement dans des cadres plus complexes. Le premier chapitre s’intéresse aux absences pour raison de santé. La politique étudiée est le jour de carence pour arrêt maladie dans la fonction publique de l’Etat en France. Cette politique de remboursement moins généreuse a notamment pour but de réduire l’absentéisme. Elle conduit à une baisse de la prévalence des absences de courte durée. Mais elle conduit aussi à une hausse de la prévalence des absences de longue durée. En conséquence, la prévalence de l’ensemble des absences pour raison de santé reste inchangée. Les deux chapitres suivants s’intéressent aux systèmes de bonus-malus d’un assureur automobile irlandais. Le deuxième chapitre s’intéresse à l’introduction d’un état très protecteur : la protection à vie du bonus. Cette protection est octroyée automatiquement et gratuitement aux assurés sous des conditions restrictives d’historique de sinistre et d’ancienneté. Comparé à la situation dans laquelle cet état protecteur n’existe pas, le taux de sinistre des assurés protégés augmente, tandis que le taux de sinistre des agents non protégés diminue, dans l’espoir d’être récompensés par la protection. L’existence de la protection est à l’origine d’un transfert intertemporel. Les assurés renoncent à de l’utilité présente en exerçant un effort supérieur, afin d’être récompensés par la protection et de profiter d’une utilité future plus élevée due à un effort moindre. Le troisième chapitre étudie la réaction juste après que l’assuré est récompensé par la protection à vie du bonus. Le taux de sinistre augmente immédiatement, mais seulement quand la protection existe depuis quelque temps. Cela suggère que l'effet d'un changement incitatif dépend de sa nature, mais aussi de son contexte. / Moral hazard is a source of economic distortion. The classical prediction in a simple framework is that a better coverage leads to a lower effort. This thesis studies the extent to which this prediction is empirically verified in more complex settings. The first chapter focuses on health-related absences. The policy under study is the one-day waiting period for sick leave in the French central civil service. This less generous reimbursement policy notably aims at reducing absenteeism. It leads to a decrease in the prevalence of short-term absences. But it also leads to an increase in the prevalence of long-term absences. As a result, the prevalence of all health-related absences stay unchanged. The two following chapters focus on bonus-malus systems used by an Irish car insurer. The second chapter focuses of the introduction on a highly protecting state: the lifetime bonus protection. This protection is granted automatically and freely to insurees under restrictive conditions on past claims and seniority. Compared to the situation in which this protecting state does not exist, the claims rate of protected insurees increases, but the claims rate of unprotected insurees decreases, in the hope of being rewarded with the protection. The existence of the protection induces an intertemporal transfer. Insurees waive present utility by exerting more effort, so as to be rewarded with the protection and to enjoy more future utility due to lower future effort. The third chapter studies the reaction just after the insuree is rewarded with the lifetime bonus protection. The claims rate increases immediately, but only when the protection exists for some time. This suggests that the effect of an incentive change depends on its nature, but also on its context.

Diese Dissertation besteht aus vier Aufsätzen, die einen Beitrag zur Literatur über die empirische Analyse von lokalen Arbeitsmärkten leisten. Der erste Aufsatz nutzt den Abzug eines Großteils der US-Stationierungsstreitkräfte in Deutschland seit 1990 als ein natürliches Experiment, das die Identifikation von kausalen Effekten von Nachfrageschocks in lokalen Arbeitsmärkten ermöglicht. Als Datengrundlage dient ein neu aufbereiteter Datensatz zu den regionalen Veränderungen der Personalstärke der U.S. Stützpunkte. Die empirischen Ergebnisse belegen, dass der Abzug zu einem signifikanten Rückgang der Beschäftigung in der lokalen Privatwirtschaft und einem nachfolgenden Anstieg in der lokalen Arbeitslosenrate führte. Im Gegensatz dazu weisen die Ergebnisse keine Evidenz für signifikante Anpassungen in den lokalen Löhnen oder Wanderungssalden auf. Der zweite Aufsatz vertieft die Frage der lokalen Lohnrigiditäten angesichts des Nachfrageschocks. Der Einfluss von zwei Institutionen wird als mögliche Quelle von heterogenen Lohnanpassungen in lokalen Arbeitsmärkten identifiziert. Die empirischen Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Einfluss der beiden Institutionen isoliert mit keinen heterogenen Lohnanpassungen verbunden ist, aber das Zusammenwirken beider Dimensionen verbunden ist mit differenziellen Lohnreduktionen. Der dritte Aufsatz erweitert die Analyse der Folgen des amerikanischen Truppenabzugs um die Frage nach der Entwicklung der lokalen Kriminalitätsrate. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Truppenabzug mit einem Rückgang der Kriminalität insbesondere von Drogen- und Sexualstraftaten verbunden ist. Der vierte Aufsatz untersucht die langfristige Entwicklung der Zeitarbeit in den regionalen Arbeitsmärkten in Deutschland seit 1979. Dabei zeigt sich, dass die anfängliche Verteilung der Beschäftigungsanteile für manuelle Nicht-Routine- und Routine-Tätigkeiten eine starke Vorhersagekraft für das unterschiedliche regionale Beschäftigungswachstum von Zeitarbeit in Deutschland besitzt. / This thesis consists of four essays that contribute to the empirical analysis of local labor markets. The first essay exploits the massive withdrawal of U.S. Armed Forces in the aftermath of the German Reunification as a natural experiment that enables the identification of the causal impact of local labor demand shocks. It introduces a novel dataset that details the evolution of the U.S. manpower levels at the disaggregated regional level and thereby enables the measurement how U.S. base closures affected the demand for local non-tradable goods and services. The results from the empirical analyses suggest that the drop in local labor demand caused a significant loss of private sector employment and generated a subsequent rise in local unemployment rates. In contrast, wages and migration patterns do not exhibit any significant responses. The second essay further explores the rigidity of wages in local labor markets in response to the U.S. base closures. The presence of two types of institutions (i.e. works councils and the German Trade and Crafts Code) and their interplay are characterized as potential sources of wage heterogeneities. While in isolation these two institutions do not seem to alter the pattern of insignificant wage adjustments, their interaction is found to introduce a channel for small downward wage adjustments. The third essay is concerned with the change in local crime rates in response to the U.S. presence and withdrawal. The empirical findings suggest that the drawdown of the U.S. military presence can be related to large and significant drops in the local rate of drug and sex offenses. The fourth essay provides an empirical analysis of the diverging patterns of employment in temporary help services across labor markets in Germany over the last 30 years. The differential growth pattern both at the level of occupations and across regional labor markets are found to be related to the initial intensity of routine and non-routine manual tasks.

This thesis presents an attempt to find evidence of the ostrich effect and the disposition effect, as well as individual differences in self-assessed financial knowledge and its effect on these biases. The ostrich effect refers to the tendency to deliberately avoid information that might be negative, by "sticking your head in the sand". The disposition effect refers to people who hold on to losing assets too long while selling winning ones too early. The two effects were examined through a natural experiment which emerged from the stock market crash that occurred February 5th, 2018. The data was collected during an internship at Länsförsäkringar AB and originates from the usage of Länsförsäkringar's application Sparnavigatorn, where customers can manage their savings. The customers login activity and number of placed sales orders were observed. The data material is unique, and the study enabled a unique presentation of real life behaviour within a financial context and an analysis of whether individual differences affect behaviour. To our knowledge, neither the ostrich effect nor the disposition effect have earlier been examined through a large scale natural experiment. The results show no significant indication of the ostrich effect, but rather a relatively constant login activity not affected by the stock market crash. Furthermore, they show a contradictory reaction to what the disposition effect suggests, meaning the respondents place more sales orders during the stock market fall than at the time before and after. The results imply that further research needs to be done to either reject or confirm the existence of the ostrich effect and the disposition effect.

No description available.