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Quatre événements El Niño extrêmes ont eu lieu durant les cinq dernières décennies (1972/1973, 1982/1983, 1997/1998 et 2015/2016) et étaient caractérises comme forts dans la région Niño 3.4. Ils présentent des différences significatives dans leur évolution qui induisent des anomalies distinctes de précipitations le long du versant Pacifique Péruvien illustrant la non-linéarité de la téléconnexion ENSO sur les précipitations dans cette région. Les pluies extrêmes ont un impact néfaste sur la population et les secteurs productifs en raison des inondations et des glissements de terrain qui s'ensuivent. Néanmoins, à ce jour, les patrons de circulation climatique clé de leurs évolutions et magnitudes différentes sont encore très peu connus. Dans cette thèse, nous montrons que les différentes configurations de précipitations lors de ces événements sont associées au transport de l'humidité provenant de différentes sources d'humidité à grande échelle. Lors des événements 1983-1998 (2016), ils sont respectivement liés à une forte (faible à modérée) humidité provenant du réchauffement du Pacifique (également mais aussi provenant de L'Atlantique via l'Amazonie). La caractéristique de ces transports d'humidité est due à une réponse atmosphérique opposée entre les événements de 1983-1998 (qui sont similaires) et l'événement de 2016 qui présente des patterns de transport d'humidité déphasés. Ces précipitations sont liées à l'humidité provenant de ces sources et la circulation atmosphérique régionale des vents de niveau supérieur (100 à 300 hPa) influe sur la quantité d'humidité qui pénètre dans la région Nord-Centre du versant Pacifique Péruvien. L'interaction de la circulation à grande échelle et régionale et le transport de l'humidité du Pacifique est expliqué par le mode Ep qui est associé à des précipitations dans la région Centre-Nord. La forte dispersion des précipitations dans les régions montagneuses est expliquée par le mode Cp pendant les phénomènes El Niño modérés (extrêmes) et est liée au transport d'humidité de niveau moyen-bas (haut) de l'Amazonie (Pacifique) atteignant les hautes terres. / Four strong El Niño events took place within the last five decades (1972/1973, 1982/1983, 1997/1998 and 2015/2016) recorded as strong in the Niño 3.4 region. They can exhibit significant differences in their evolution associated with a distinct rainfall anomaly evolution along the PPB (Peruvian Pacific Basin), which illustrates the strong nonlinearity of the ENSO teleconnection on the rainfall in this area. These extreme rainfalls have harmful impacts on the population and productive sectors due to floods and landslides which are trigged by them. Yet the key climatic circulation pattern for their different evolution and magnitude are still unknown. Here we show that different rainfall patterns during these events are associated with moisture transport originated from different large-scale moisture sources. For example, in the 1983 -1998 (2016) events appear as related with strong (weak to moderate) moisture coming from the Pacific warming (also coming from Atlantic Ocean through the Amazon basin). Characteristic of these moisture transports is due to an atmospheric response opposite between the 1983-1998 events (that are similar) and 2016 event experiencing out-of-phase moisture transport patterns. Although these rainfalls are linked to the moisture arrival from those sources, the moisture amount entering the PPB can be also influenced by regional atmospheric circulation of upper level winds (100 to 300 hPa) leading to different enhanced moisture transport associated with different rainfall anomalies in the North-Centre PPB. The interplay of large-scale and regional circulation and Pacific moisture transport explains the Ep mode associated with rainfall in the north-Centre PPB. The high dispersion of rainfall in highlands (Cp mode) during the moderate (extremes) El Niño appears as linked to low-middle (high level) moisture transport from the Amazon (Pacific) reaching highlands.

The occurrence of wildfire is influenced by a suite of factors ranging from "top-down" influences (e. g., climate) to "bottom-up" localized influences (e. g., ignitions, fuels, and land use). We carried out the first broad-scale assessment of wildland fire patterns in northern Mexico to assess the relative influence of top-down and bottom-up drivers of fire in a region where frequent fire regimes continued well into the 20th century. Using a network of 67 sites, we assessed (1) fire synchrony and the scales at which synchrony is evident, (2) climate drivers of fire, and (3) asynchrony in fire regime changes. We found high fire synchrony across northern Mexico between 1750 and 2008, with synchrony highest at distances < 400 km. Climate oscillations, especially El Nino-Southern Oscillation, were important drivers of fire synchrony. However, bottom-up factors modified fire occurrence at smaller spatial scales, with variable local influence on the timing of abrupt, unusually long fire-free periods starting between 1887 and 1979 CE. Thirty sites lacked these fire-free periods. In contrast to the neighboring southwestern United States, many ecosystems in northern Mexico maintain frequent fire regimes and intact fire-climate relationships that are useful in understanding climate influences on disturbance across scales of space and time.

To study the ecology of organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts, the changes in species composition, diversity, and seasonal variations of cyst flux in the sediment trap deployed in the Strait of Georgia (BC, Canada) were examined. The cyst production rate varied from ~600 to 336,200 cysts m-2 day-1, with an average of 20,000 cysts m-2 day-1. Throughout the study period (March, 1996 - January, 1999), cyst assemblages were mostly dominated by cysts produced by heterotrophic dinoflagellates, such as Protoperidineaceae (Brigantedinium spp., Quinquequspis concreta, and cysts of Protoperidinium americanum). Cysts produced by heterotrophic dinoflagellates peaked in June each year, whereas cysts produced by autotrophic taxa were most abundant during August-September. The total annual dinoflagellate cyst flux was higher in 1996 than in 1997 and 1998, being enhanced by the bloom of Alexandrium spp. The warmer sea-surface temperature in 1998 had a positive effect on the production of both autotrophic and heterotrophic dinoflagellates, as inferred from the cyst fluxes.

A situação da vulnerabilidade a que estão expostas as crianças que vivem com aids, leva a refletir como e qual a melhor forma de tentar compreender como são abordadas as questões relativas ao seu modo de viver. Conversar com as crianças afetadas, ouvindo-as, torna-se fundamental para a compreensão da situação de doença e também como percebem o seu cotidiano. Para tanto se desenvolveu um estudo exploratório descritivo, com abordagem qualitativa, cujo objetivo foi conhecer a partir da voz da criança que vive com HIV/aids as implicações no seu cotidiano. O estudo foi realizado no período entre novembro de 2012 e março de 2013 e contou com a participação de cinco crianças com HIV/aids, com idades entre 11 e 12 anos. Foi desenvolvido na Organização Não-Governamental (ONG) Mais Criança no município de Porto Alegre/RS. As informações foram coletadas por meio de uma entrevista semi estruturada após aprovação do Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa da UFRGS (109.149) O material resultante das entrevistas foi submetido à análise temática de conteúdo que evidenciou as seguintes categorias: Temores: a tristeza inconstante e Experiências: o conhecimento vivido. Evidenciou-se que em relação ao seu cotidiano elas relatam que não tem uma vida diferente das demais crianças. Elas não deixam de fazer suas atividades diárias em virtude de ter que conviver com o HIV/aids ou ter que tomar as medicações, por mais que essa questão apareceu como uma implicação no seu modo de vida, além de manifestarem expectativas positivas no futuro. A interrupção ou mesmo a necessidade de adiar uma atividade em função de ter que tomar as medicações antirretrovirais, já está introjetada no seu viver, demonstrado pelo relato de um convívio de forma tranquila. A aproximação com essas crianças que vivem uma situação complexa e permeada de conflitos sérios, como seus medos, temores, esperanças, possibilitou conhecer as implicações do seu viver cotidiano. Ressalta-se a importância para os profissionais da saúde em geral, e em especial a enfermagem, de desenvolver estratégias para a criação de um vinculo que possibilite a criança e sua família expor sentimentos e situações que auxilie na condução do processo de viver com essa doença. / The vulnerable situation that children who live with AIDS are exposed to, leads to reflect about how and what is the best way to try to comprehend how the issues about their way of life are dealt with. Talking to affected children, and listening to them, becomes essential to understand the situation of the disease and it is also the way they notice their daily. For that was developed a descriptive exploratory study, with a qualitative approach whose objective learn from the voice of the child living with HIV / aids implications in their daily.The study was conducted between November 2012 and March 2013 and counted with the participation of five children with HIV / AIDS, aged between 11 and 12 years old. It was developed in the Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) More Child in Porto Alegre / RS. The data were collected through a semi-structured interview after approval of the Ethics Committee in Research of UFRGS (109 149). The resulting material was subjected to thematic content analysis interviews that showed the following categories: Fears: constant sadness and Experiences: lived knowledge. In relation to their day by day, they report that they do not have a different life from other children. They do not stop doing their daily activities as a result of having to live with HIV / AIDS or having to take the medications, even though this question appeared as an implication in their way of life, and to express positive expectations in their future. The interruption or even the need to postpone an activity due to having to take antiretroviral medications is already entrenched in their behavior, demonstrated by the report of a smoothly convivial. The approach to these children who live a complex situation, fraught with serious conflicts, such as fears, and hopes, helped understand the implications for the quality of their daily lives. Emphasizes the importance for health professionals in general, and particularly nursing, to develop strategies for creating a bond that allows the child and his family show feelings and situations to assist in driving the process of living with this disease. / La situación de vulnerabilidad a que están expuestos los niños que viven con el SIDA, lo que lleva a reflexionar cómo y qué mejor manera de tratar de entender la forma en que se tratan temas relacionados con su manera de vivir. Hable con los niños afectados, escuchándolos, es esencial para la comprensión de la enfermedad y también la forma en que perciben su diario. Para ello se desarrolló un estudio exploratorio descriptivo con abordaje cualitativo, cuyo objetivo fue aprender de la voz del niño que vive con las consecuencias del VIH / SIDA en su diario. El estudio se llevó a cabo entre noviembre de 2012 y marzo de 2013 y contó con la presencia de cinco niños con VIH / sida, con edades comprendidas entre los 11 y 12 años. Fue desarrollado en la Organización No Gubernamental (ONG) más Niños en Porto Alegre / RS. Los datos fueron recolectados a través de una entrevista semi-estructurada, con la aprobación del Comité de Ética en Investigación de la UFRGS (109 149). El material resultante se sometió a las entrevistas de análisis de contenido temático mostraron que las siguientes categorías: Los miedos: tristeza inconstante y Experiencias: conocimiento vivió. Era evidente que en relación con su informe diario que no tienen una vida diferente a los otros niños. No dejan de hacer sus actividades diarias como consecuencia de tener que vivir con el VIH / SIDA o el tener que tomar medicamentos, a pesar de que esta cuestión apareció como una consecuencia de su modo de vida, y para expresar expectativas positivas. La interrupción o la necesidad de posponer una actividad debido a tener que tomar medicamentos antirretrovirales, ya está arraigada en su comportamiento, como lo demuestra el informe de una convivencia sin problemas. El enfoque de estos niños que viven un proceso complejo y plagado de conflictos graves, como miedos, temores, esperanzas, ayudado entender las implicaciones para la calidad de su vida cotidiana. Hace hincapié en la importancia de que los profesionales de salud en general, y en especial de enfermería, el desarrollo de estrategias para la creación de un vínculo que le permite al niño y sus sentimientos y situaciones que muestran la familia para ayudar en la conducción del proceso de vivir con esta enfermedad.

Climate change is a global concern as it may affect many aspects of life, including water supply. A tool used to model climate change’s impacts is called a General Circulation Model (GCM). GCMs project future scenarios including temperature and precipitation, but these are designed at a coarse resolution and require downscaling for employment for regional hydrologic modeling. There is a vast amount of research on downscaling and bias-correcting GCMs data, but it is unknown whether these techniques alter precipitation signals embedded in these models or reproduce climate states that are viable for water resource planning and management. Using the Tampa, Florida region for the case study, the first part of the research investigated 1) whether GCM and the downscaled, bias-corrected data were able to replicate important historical climate states; and 2) if climate state and/or transition probabilities in raw GCMs were preserved or lost in translation in the corrected downscaled data. This has an important implication in understanding the limitations of bias-correction methods and shortcomings of future projection scenarios. Results showed that the GCM, and downscaled and bias-corrected data did a poor job in capturing historical climate states for wet or dry states as well as the variability in precipitation including some extremes associated with El Niño events. Additionally, the corrected products ended up creating different cycles compared to the original GCMs. Since the corrected products did not preserve GCMs historical transition probabilities, more than likely similar types of deviations will occur for “future” predictions and therefore another correction could be applied if desired to reproduce the degree of spatial persistence of atmospheric features and climatic states that are hydrologically important. Furthermore, understanding the sustainability of water supply systems in a changing climate is required for undertaking adaptation measures. Many water suppliers employ GCMs to examine climate change’s effect on hydrologic variables such as precipitation, but little is known on the propagation of mismatch errors in downscaled products through cascade of hydrologic and systems models. The second study examined how deviations in downscaled GCMs precipitation propagated into streamflow and reservoir simulation models by using key performance metrics. Findings exhibited that simulations better reproduced the resilience metric, but failed to capture reliability, vulnerability and sustainability metrics. Discrepancies were attributed to multiple factors including variances in GCMs precipitation and streamflow cumulative distribution functions, and divergences in serial correlation and system memory. Finally, the last study examined multiple models, emission scenarios and an ensemble to obtain a range of possible implications on reservation operations for time periods 2030-2053, 2054-2077 and 2077-2100 since the future emission trajectory is uncertain. Currently there are four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as defined by the IPCC’s fifth Assessment Report which provides time-dependent projections based on different forecasted greenhouse gas emission and land use changes. For this research Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.0, 6.0 and 8.5 were examined. Scenarios were evaluated utilizing reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability performance metrics and compared to a historical baseline. Findings exhibited that RCP 4.5, the lower end of emission scenario, improved reservoir reliability and resilience over time. Conversely, RCP 8.5, highest emissions, resulted in a steady decline of all metrics by 2100. Although vulnerability increased by 2100 for all emission scenarios, on average RCP 4.5 was less vulnerable. Investigation of permits and adjustments to capture extreme flows might be necessary to combat climate changes and precipitation inputs along with improvements to atmospheric emissions, which correlated with system recuperation with time.

A situação da vulnerabilidade a que estão expostas as crianças que vivem com aids, leva a refletir como e qual a melhor forma de tentar compreender como são abordadas as questões relativas ao seu modo de viver. Conversar com as crianças afetadas, ouvindo-as, torna-se fundamental para a compreensão da situação de doença e também como percebem o seu cotidiano. Para tanto se desenvolveu um estudo exploratório descritivo, com abordagem qualitativa, cujo objetivo foi conhecer a partir da voz da criança que vive com HIV/aids as implicações no seu cotidiano. O estudo foi realizado no período entre novembro de 2012 e março de 2013 e contou com a participação de cinco crianças com HIV/aids, com idades entre 11 e 12 anos. Foi desenvolvido na Organização Não-Governamental (ONG) Mais Criança no município de Porto Alegre/RS. As informações foram coletadas por meio de uma entrevista semi estruturada após aprovação do Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa da UFRGS (109.149) O material resultante das entrevistas foi submetido à análise temática de conteúdo que evidenciou as seguintes categorias: Temores: a tristeza inconstante e Experiências: o conhecimento vivido. Evidenciou-se que em relação ao seu cotidiano elas relatam que não tem uma vida diferente das demais crianças. Elas não deixam de fazer suas atividades diárias em virtude de ter que conviver com o HIV/aids ou ter que tomar as medicações, por mais que essa questão apareceu como uma implicação no seu modo de vida, além de manifestarem expectativas positivas no futuro. A interrupção ou mesmo a necessidade de adiar uma atividade em função de ter que tomar as medicações antirretrovirais, já está introjetada no seu viver, demonstrado pelo relato de um convívio de forma tranquila. A aproximação com essas crianças que vivem uma situação complexa e permeada de conflitos sérios, como seus medos, temores, esperanças, possibilitou conhecer as implicações do seu viver cotidiano. Ressalta-se a importância para os profissionais da saúde em geral, e em especial a enfermagem, de desenvolver estratégias para a criação de um vinculo que possibilite a criança e sua família expor sentimentos e situações que auxilie na condução do processo de viver com essa doença. / The vulnerable situation that children who live with AIDS are exposed to, leads to reflect about how and what is the best way to try to comprehend how the issues about their way of life are dealt with. Talking to affected children, and listening to them, becomes essential to understand the situation of the disease and it is also the way they notice their daily. For that was developed a descriptive exploratory study, with a qualitative approach whose objective learn from the voice of the child living with HIV / aids implications in their daily.The study was conducted between November 2012 and March 2013 and counted with the participation of five children with HIV / AIDS, aged between 11 and 12 years old. It was developed in the Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) More Child in Porto Alegre / RS. The data were collected through a semi-structured interview after approval of the Ethics Committee in Research of UFRGS (109 149). The resulting material was subjected to thematic content analysis interviews that showed the following categories: Fears: constant sadness and Experiences: lived knowledge. In relation to their day by day, they report that they do not have a different life from other children. They do not stop doing their daily activities as a result of having to live with HIV / AIDS or having to take the medications, even though this question appeared as an implication in their way of life, and to express positive expectations in their future. The interruption or even the need to postpone an activity due to having to take antiretroviral medications is already entrenched in their behavior, demonstrated by the report of a smoothly convivial. The approach to these children who live a complex situation, fraught with serious conflicts, such as fears, and hopes, helped understand the implications for the quality of their daily lives. Emphasizes the importance for health professionals in general, and particularly nursing, to develop strategies for creating a bond that allows the child and his family show feelings and situations to assist in driving the process of living with this disease. / La situación de vulnerabilidad a que están expuestos los niños que viven con el SIDA, lo que lleva a reflexionar cómo y qué mejor manera de tratar de entender la forma en que se tratan temas relacionados con su manera de vivir. Hable con los niños afectados, escuchándolos, es esencial para la comprensión de la enfermedad y también la forma en que perciben su diario. Para ello se desarrolló un estudio exploratorio descriptivo con abordaje cualitativo, cuyo objetivo fue aprender de la voz del niño que vive con las consecuencias del VIH / SIDA en su diario. El estudio se llevó a cabo entre noviembre de 2012 y marzo de 2013 y contó con la presencia de cinco niños con VIH / sida, con edades comprendidas entre los 11 y 12 años. Fue desarrollado en la Organización No Gubernamental (ONG) más Niños en Porto Alegre / RS. Los datos fueron recolectados a través de una entrevista semi-estructurada, con la aprobación del Comité de Ética en Investigación de la UFRGS (109 149). El material resultante se sometió a las entrevistas de análisis de contenido temático mostraron que las siguientes categorías: Los miedos: tristeza inconstante y Experiencias: conocimiento vivió. Era evidente que en relación con su informe diario que no tienen una vida diferente a los otros niños. No dejan de hacer sus actividades diarias como consecuencia de tener que vivir con el VIH / SIDA o el tener que tomar medicamentos, a pesar de que esta cuestión apareció como una consecuencia de su modo de vida, y para expresar expectativas positivas. La interrupción o la necesidad de posponer una actividad debido a tener que tomar medicamentos antirretrovirales, ya está arraigada en su comportamiento, como lo demuestra el informe de una convivencia sin problemas. El enfoque de estos niños que viven un proceso complejo y plagado de conflictos graves, como miedos, temores, esperanzas, ayudado entender las implicaciones para la calidad de su vida cotidiana. Hace hincapié en la importancia de que los profesionales de salud en general, y en especial de enfermería, el desarrollo de estrategias para la creación de un vínculo que le permite al niño y sus sentimientos y situaciones que muestran la familia para ayudar en la conducción del proceso de vivir con esta enfermedad.

A situação da vulnerabilidade a que estão expostas as crianças que vivem com aids, leva a refletir como e qual a melhor forma de tentar compreender como são abordadas as questões relativas ao seu modo de viver. Conversar com as crianças afetadas, ouvindo-as, torna-se fundamental para a compreensão da situação de doença e também como percebem o seu cotidiano. Para tanto se desenvolveu um estudo exploratório descritivo, com abordagem qualitativa, cujo objetivo foi conhecer a partir da voz da criança que vive com HIV/aids as implicações no seu cotidiano. O estudo foi realizado no período entre novembro de 2012 e março de 2013 e contou com a participação de cinco crianças com HIV/aids, com idades entre 11 e 12 anos. Foi desenvolvido na Organização Não-Governamental (ONG) Mais Criança no município de Porto Alegre/RS. As informações foram coletadas por meio de uma entrevista semi estruturada após aprovação do Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa da UFRGS (109.149) O material resultante das entrevistas foi submetido à análise temática de conteúdo que evidenciou as seguintes categorias: Temores: a tristeza inconstante e Experiências: o conhecimento vivido. Evidenciou-se que em relação ao seu cotidiano elas relatam que não tem uma vida diferente das demais crianças. Elas não deixam de fazer suas atividades diárias em virtude de ter que conviver com o HIV/aids ou ter que tomar as medicações, por mais que essa questão apareceu como uma implicação no seu modo de vida, além de manifestarem expectativas positivas no futuro. A interrupção ou mesmo a necessidade de adiar uma atividade em função de ter que tomar as medicações antirretrovirais, já está introjetada no seu viver, demonstrado pelo relato de um convívio de forma tranquila. A aproximação com essas crianças que vivem uma situação complexa e permeada de conflitos sérios, como seus medos, temores, esperanças, possibilitou conhecer as implicações do seu viver cotidiano. Ressalta-se a importância para os profissionais da saúde em geral, e em especial a enfermagem, de desenvolver estratégias para a criação de um vinculo que possibilite a criança e sua família expor sentimentos e situações que auxilie na condução do processo de viver com essa doença. / The vulnerable situation that children who live with AIDS are exposed to, leads to reflect about how and what is the best way to try to comprehend how the issues about their way of life are dealt with. Talking to affected children, and listening to them, becomes essential to understand the situation of the disease and it is also the way they notice their daily. For that was developed a descriptive exploratory study, with a qualitative approach whose objective learn from the voice of the child living with HIV / aids implications in their daily.The study was conducted between November 2012 and March 2013 and counted with the participation of five children with HIV / AIDS, aged between 11 and 12 years old. It was developed in the Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) More Child in Porto Alegre / RS. The data were collected through a semi-structured interview after approval of the Ethics Committee in Research of UFRGS (109 149). The resulting material was subjected to thematic content analysis interviews that showed the following categories: Fears: constant sadness and Experiences: lived knowledge. In relation to their day by day, they report that they do not have a different life from other children. They do not stop doing their daily activities as a result of having to live with HIV / AIDS or having to take the medications, even though this question appeared as an implication in their way of life, and to express positive expectations in their future. The interruption or even the need to postpone an activity due to having to take antiretroviral medications is already entrenched in their behavior, demonstrated by the report of a smoothly convivial. The approach to these children who live a complex situation, fraught with serious conflicts, such as fears, and hopes, helped understand the implications for the quality of their daily lives. Emphasizes the importance for health professionals in general, and particularly nursing, to develop strategies for creating a bond that allows the child and his family show feelings and situations to assist in driving the process of living with this disease. / La situación de vulnerabilidad a que están expuestos los niños que viven con el SIDA, lo que lleva a reflexionar cómo y qué mejor manera de tratar de entender la forma en que se tratan temas relacionados con su manera de vivir. Hable con los niños afectados, escuchándolos, es esencial para la comprensión de la enfermedad y también la forma en que perciben su diario. Para ello se desarrolló un estudio exploratorio descriptivo con abordaje cualitativo, cuyo objetivo fue aprender de la voz del niño que vive con las consecuencias del VIH / SIDA en su diario. El estudio se llevó a cabo entre noviembre de 2012 y marzo de 2013 y contó con la presencia de cinco niños con VIH / sida, con edades comprendidas entre los 11 y 12 años. Fue desarrollado en la Organización No Gubernamental (ONG) más Niños en Porto Alegre / RS. Los datos fueron recolectados a través de una entrevista semi-estructurada, con la aprobación del Comité de Ética en Investigación de la UFRGS (109 149). El material resultante se sometió a las entrevistas de análisis de contenido temático mostraron que las siguientes categorías: Los miedos: tristeza inconstante y Experiencias: conocimiento vivió. Era evidente que en relación con su informe diario que no tienen una vida diferente a los otros niños. No dejan de hacer sus actividades diarias como consecuencia de tener que vivir con el VIH / SIDA o el tener que tomar medicamentos, a pesar de que esta cuestión apareció como una consecuencia de su modo de vida, y para expresar expectativas positivas. La interrupción o la necesidad de posponer una actividad debido a tener que tomar medicamentos antirretrovirales, ya está arraigada en su comportamiento, como lo demuestra el informe de una convivencia sin problemas. El enfoque de estos niños que viven un proceso complejo y plagado de conflictos graves, como miedos, temores, esperanzas, ayudado entender las implicaciones para la calidad de su vida cotidiana. Hace hincapié en la importancia de que los profesionales de salud en general, y en especial de enfermería, el desarrollo de estrategias para la creación de un vínculo que le permite al niño y sus sentimientos y situaciones que muestran la familia para ayudar en la conducción del proceso de vivir con esta enfermedad.

Future climate changes will alter disturbance regimes worldwide with important implications for many ecological and social systems. In west central British Columbia, Canada, fire and insect disturbances have shaped the historic character of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca Beissn. Franco) dominated forests. However, since AD 1900 fire suppression and other forest management practices have led to denser forests and conifer encroachment into grasslands. Considering climate changes in interior British Columbia are expected to result in warmer and drier conditions, understanding the influence of climate on forest disturbances is crucial for land managers tasked with both mitigating the effects of disturbance and promoting resilience in forest ecosystems. This research focused on developing multi-century, annually-resolved records of fire and western spruce budworm outbreaks to evaluate: the historic climate conditions related to these disturbances; the influence of grassland proximity on disturbance-climate relationships; and, whether western spruce budworm outbreaks were related to fire activity. At the landscape scale, a detailed study in the Churn Creek Protected Area revealed spatially variable stand structure and fire-climate relationships at a low elevation forest-grassland ecotone over the interval AD 1600 to 1900. This finding suggests the site was characterized by fires of mixed-severity dominated by frequent, low-severity, fires related to positive antecedent moisture conditions punctuated by widespread fires of moderate to high severity related to intervals of persistent drought. At the regional scale, the influence of interannual climate variability and large-scale patterns of climate variability (e.g. El Nino Southern Oscillation) was evaluated using new and existing records of fire history and multiple climate pattern reconstructions. Regional fire activity was shown to be significantly related to interannual climate variability, and no consistent patterns between regional fire years and the individual phases or phase combinations of large-scale patterns of climate variability were detected. The findings suggest that the spatial expression of large-scale climate patterns translates into weak and undetectable terrestrial effects related to fire activity in this region. The influence of grassland proximity on disturbance history was investigated using site-level and regional tree-ring reconstructions of western spruce budworm outbreaks and fire activity based on four sites adjacent to grasslands and four sites not adjacent to grasslands between AD 1600 and 1900 (fire) and AD 1600 and 2009 (western spruce budworm). Fires affecting grassland proximal sites were more frequent than fires occurring in forests not adjacent to grasslands, and the character of western spruce budworm outbreaks was generally consistent among all sites. Fire activity was related to both warm, dry and cool, wet conditions in the fire year and/or year(s) preceding the fire depending on proximity to grasslands, suggesting climate conditions associated with both fine fuel growth and drying are key determinants for fire activity. The initiation of western spruce budworm outbreaks was significantly related to drought and this relationship was enhanced at sites adjacent to grasslands. At the site-level and regional scale, no consistent association was found between the initiation of western spruce budworm outbreaks and fire years indicating the historic interaction between these disturbances is weak or non-existent. / Graduate

Este estudo discute uma climatologia de 59 anos (1949-2007) de bloqueios no Hemisfério Sul (SH) usando dados de altura geopotencial em 500-hPa das reanálises do National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR). A variabilidade espaço-temporal dos eventos de bloqueio e associações com o El Niño/Oscilação do Sul (ENOS) também foram examinadas. Adicionalmente, os bloqueios foram investigados em dois Modelos de Circulação Geral Acoplados Atmosfera-Oceano de clima (MCGAO) do Intergovernamental Painel for Climate Change (IPCC), o ECHAM5/MPI-OM e o MIROC 3.2. Dois cenários simulados foram analisados: O clima do século XX e o cenário de emissão A1B. Os episódios do ENOS foram identificados usando dois métodos. O primeiro foi o Índice Oceânico Mensal do Niño (ONI) do Climate Prediction Center (CPC-NCEP). O segundo método foi baseado em Funções Empíricas Ortogonais (EOF) e foi aplicado nos MCGAOs. Similarmente, também foi examinado a influencia combinada do ENOS e a Oscilação Antártica (AAO) na ocorrência e características dos bloqueios. O índice diário da AAO foi obtido pelo CPC-NCEP. Os índices convencionais de bloqueios detectam principalmente variações longitudinais. Este trabalho propõe um índice de bloqueio que detecta, além de variações longitudinais também as variações latitudinais dos bloqueios. Cinco setores relevantes de bloqueios foram examinados em detalhes: Indico Sudoeste (SB1), Pacífico Sudoeste (SB2), Pacífico Central (SB3), Pacífico Sudeste (SB4) e Atlântico Sudoeste (SB5). Além disso, foram investigados duas grandes regiões do Pacífico Sul: Pacífico Oeste e Pacífico Leste. Foi encontrado que a escala média típica dos eventos de bloqueio varia entre 1,5 e 2,5 dias. Além disso, a duração dos eventos depende da latitude, com eventos de maior duração observados em latitudes mais altas. Diferenças longitudinais estatisticamente significativas na freqüência do escoamento bloqueado foram observadas entre as fases Quente e Neutra do ENOS desde o outono a primavera. Episódios intensos da fase Quente do ENOS (isto é, moderados a fortes) tendem a modificar o local preferencial de bloqueio, mas não a freqüência. Por outro lado, os episódios fracos da fase Quente do ENOS estiveram associados relativamente com alta freqüência. Os Eventos de bloqueio durante o ENOS+ duram, em média, mais um dia relativamente aos episódios Neutros. Em contraste, a fase Fria do ENOS (ENOS-) caracterizou-se pela redução dos eventos de bloqueio sobre o setor do Pacífico Central, exceto durante os meses do verão austral. Entretanto, nenhuma diferença estatisticamente significativa foi detectada na duração dos eventos. Composições de anomalias de vento em 200-hPa indicam que o enfraquecimento (fortalecimento) do jato polar em torno de 60ºS durante a AAO negativa (positiva) em ambas as fases do ENOS tem uma importância significativa no aumento (redução) dos eventos de bloqueio. Um significativo aumento estatístico dos eventos sobre o setor do Pacífico Sudeste foi observado durante a AAO negativa em ambas as fases do ENOS. Ainda, um aumento (redução) dos eventos foi observado sobre a região do Pacífico Oeste na fase negativa (positiva) da AAO durante o ENOS-. Em contraste, durante o ENOS+ não houve diferenças estatisticamente significativas na distribuição longitudinal dos eventos separado de acordo com as fases opostas da AAO, embora haja um aumento (redução) dos eventos da região do Pacífico Oeste para o Pacífico Leste durante a fase negativa (positiva) da AAO. Os MCGAOs simularam corretamente a amplitude do ciclo anual observado. Também, ambos os MCGAOs simularam melhor a duração e o local preferencial do que freqüência. Nenhum MCGAO simulou adequadamente a freqüência durante a fase Neutra do ENOS. O ECHAM5/MPI-OM (rodada 2) mostra um erro sistemático que levam a uma superestimativa na freqüência de eventos sobre o Pacífico Leste durante as fases Neutra e Fria do ENOS. As diferenças entre as duas versões do MIROC 3.2 indicam que a alta resolução nos modelos melhora o desempenho em simular a freqüência de bloqueios. / This study discusses 59-yr climatology (1949-2007) of Southern Hemisphere (SH) blockings using daily 500-hPa geopotential height data from National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. The spatiotemporal variability of blocking events and associations with El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are examined. Additionally, blockings were examined in two Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCM), ECHAM5/MPI-OM and MIROC 3.2. Two sets of simulations were examined: the climate of the 20th century and the A1B emission scenario. ENSO episodes were identified using two methods. The first method was the Monthly Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC-NCEP). The second method was based on Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and was applied to identify ENSO episodes in the CGCMs. Similarly, the combined influence of ENSO and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) on the occurrence and characteristics of blockings was also examined. The daily AAO index was obtained from CPC/NCEP. Most conventional blocking indices detect longitudinal variations of blockings. In this study we propose a new blocking index that detects longitudinal and latitudinal variations of blockings. The following relevant sectors of blocking occurrence were identified and examined in detail: Southeast Indian (SB1), Southwest Pacific (SB2), Central Pacific (SB3), Southeast Pacific (SB4) and Southwest Atlantic (SB5) oceans. In addition, we investigated two large regions of South Pacific: West Pacific and East Pacific. We found that the typical timescale of a blocking event is about ~1.5 2.5 days. Nonetheless, the duration of events depends on the latitude, with larger durations observed at higher latitudes. Statistically significant differences in the longitude of blockings are observed between Warm (ENSO+) and Neutral ENSO phases from the Austral fall to spring. Moderate to strong Warm ENSO episodes modulate the preferred locations of blockings but do not play a significant role for variations in their frequency. On the other hand, weak ENOS+ episodes were associated with relatively high frequency of blockings. Blocking events during ENSO+ last on average one more day compared to events that occur during Neutral episodes. In contrast, Cold (ENOS-) ENSO episodes are characterized by a decrease of blockings over the Central Pacific sector, except during the Austral summer months. However, no statistically significant differences are detected in the duration. Composites of 200-hPa zonal wind anomalies indicate that the weakening (strengthening) of the polar jet around 60oS during negative (positive) AAO phases in both ENSO phases plays a major role for the relative increase (decrease) of blocking events. A statistically significant increase of events over Southeast Pacific is observed during negative AAO phases in both ENSO phases. Moreover, an increase (decrease) of events is observed over West Pacific region when negative (positive) AAO phases occur during ENSO-. In contrast, during ENSO+ there is no statistically significant difference in the longitudinal distribution of events separated according to opposite AAO phases, although there is an increase (decrease) in the events from West Pacific region to East Pacific during negative (positive) AAO phase. The CGCMs investigated in this study correctly simulated the amplitude of observed annual cycle of geopotential height in the extratropics. Also, both CGCMs show a better performance in simulating the duration and preferred locations of blockings than their frequency. None of these CGCMs simulated well the frequency during Neutral ENSO phase. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM (run2) shows systematic biases in some regions. For instance, this model overestimates the frequency of blockings over East Pacific region during Cold and Neutral ENSO phases. The differences between the two versions of MIROC 3.2 indicate that the increase in resolution improves the performance of the model in simulating the frequency of blockings.