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Foreign aid is a major flow of income into sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, averaging roughly 12% of GDP over the last four decades. Yet, SSA countries are characterized by very low per capita output, low human capital attainment, and widespread poverty. This dissertation investigates the macroeconomic and welfare effects of foreign aid to SSA countries. The empirical part of the dissertation studies 22 SSA countries, and uses a cointegrated vector autoregressive analysis (CVAR). This methodology identifies long-run effects without imposing strong statistical priors. I introduce tradable and non-tradable sectors into the analysis to determine if the so-called “Dutch Disease” is the reason for the plight of SSA countries. “Dutch Disease” occurs when a positive shock to foreign aid perversely reduces GDP, by decreasing the relative price of tradable to nontradable goods, thus reducing the size of the tradable sector. While I find that aid reduces GDP in eight countries, this result is inconsistent with the “Dutch Disease” as it is not accompanied by large relative price changes. The analysis controls for a number of country-specific characteristics including extraordinary events. Overall, I find non-positive impacts of foreign aid on GDP and the tradable sector, with a few exceptions. I also consider the reverse causal channel and test whether country-specific macroeconomic variables drive foreign aid flows. I find that GDP, tradable output, and tradable and non-tradable goods prices do affect the amount of aid a country receives in 15 countries. These variables have no impact on foreign aid (aid is considered as weakly exogenous) in six countries. The theoretical part of the dissertation develops two dynamic stochastic general equilibrium — real business cycle — (DSGE-RBC) models to analyze the effects of foreign aid on human capital investment and the business cycle. The distinguishing feature of the models is to embed a human capital investment in a small open economy model of Mendoza (1991). The first model considers one-sector DSGE model, which is followed by two-sector (tradable and non-tradable) DSGE model. Both models distinguish between physical and human capital investment and allow for labor-leisure choice. In the analysis, labor supply and time spent studying or acquiring skills are optimally chosen. The models are calibrated to match the key features of the Kenyan economy. In both models, a positive aid shock initially has a negative impact on labor supply and output. However, the shock subsequently has a positive effect on physical and human capital investment, and time spent studying. This is due to a positive income effect from the shock. A rise in foreign aid increases consumption; consumption smoothing across periods raises physical and human capital investment, labor productivity, and output. I also find that reducing the volatility of aid has a significant positive effect on human capital investment and welfare. Policymakers should focus on reducing the volatility of foreign aid and not solely concentrate on the average level of aid. The analysis of the two-sector DSGE-RBC model incorporates the role for the “Dutch Disease” mechanism. Consistent with the “Dutch Disease”, I find that a shock to foreign aid appreciates the relative price of non-tradable goods that causes the factors of production to reallocate from the tradable sector to the non-tradable sector, leading to a decline in GDP and the tradable output. Finding the “Dutch Disease” result here is not necessarily at odds with the CVAR estimation results as the DSGE-RBC simulation is a short-run analysis and the CVAR estimation is a long-run analysis. / Graduate

Cette thèse regroupe trois articles sur les déséquilibres macroéconomiques en Europe, que ces déséquilibres se manifestent par une divergence entre pays membres de la zone euro, ou par une déformation du partage de la richesse entre travail et capital. Depuis l’introduction de l’Euro jusqu'à la crise financière globale de 2008, les déséquilibres macroéconomiques se sont creusés parmi les États membres : les prix et les salaires entre pays ont augmenté beaucoup plus rapidement dans les pays les plus pauvres initialement que dans le reste de la zone. Ces déséquilibres étaient tout d’abord perçus comme reflétant un processus de rattrapage. Cette interprétation a été remise en cause à partir de la crise financière globale de 2008. Ils ont été pointés du doigt comme reflétant de «mauvais» déséquilibres, signes d’une perte de compétitivité dans la « périphérie » de la zone euro. Les deux premiers chapitres identifient les facteurs à l’origine de ces déséquilibres. Ils montrent qu’ils sont en grande partie la conséquence de l’intégration économique elle-même. Le troisième chapitre s’intéresse au partage de la richesse entre travail et capital. Depuis le début des années 1980, la part de la richesse distribuée au travail a diminué dans les pays européens. En parallèle, la part des profits distribués aux actionnaires sous forme de dividendes et de rachats d’actions a augmenté. Ce chapitre suggère que sont en cause des changements dans la gouvernance des entreprises. Ces changements se manifestent par un rôle accru des investisseurs institutionnels dans le capital des sociétés non-financières, qui sont alors amenées à faire prédominer la rémunération des actionnaires au détriment du travail. / This doctoral thesis gathers three articles on macroeconomic imbalances in Europe. It deals with two types of imbalances: imbalances among European countries, and within these countries, in the distribution of income between labour and capital. From the Euro inception up to the 2008 global financial crisis, macroeconomic imbalances widened among Member States. This divergence took the form of strong differences in the dynamics of prices and wages: they increased much faster in "peripheral" economies than in "core" countries. These imbalances were first interpreted as reflecting a catch-up and convergence process of the poorest countries of the area. Both economists and policymakers challenged this view in the aftermath of the 2008 recession. Imbalances were then pointed out as reflecting a broader competitiveness problem in the "sinful periphery" compared to the "virtuous core". The first two chapters ask what are the main contributors to these imbalances. They argue that, in peripheral economies, they mostly reflect the process of economic integration. The third chapter focuses on the distribution of income between labour and capital. Since the early 1980s, there has been a decline in the share of income accruing to labour in European countries. This decline was parallel to an increase in the profit share, that reflects mostly the dynamics of payouts (dividends and buybacks) to shareholders. This chapter argues that these trends could be linked to recent trends in firm ownership. Non-financial corporations are increasingly owned by institutional investors, whom exert pressures for tighter governance in favor of shareholders and to the expense of labour.

Depuis l’amendement du Clean Air Act (1990), les marchés d’échange depermis d’émissions connaissent un succès grandissant. Un aspect peu étudié de leurfonctionnement est la participation des citoyens pour acheter et retirer des permisd’émissions. Cette thèse vise à étudier l’opportunité d’ouvrir le marché de permis auxcitoyens et à analyser les implications de leur participation. Dans un premier chapitre, nousrevenons sur le débat taxe versus marché. Nous montrons que lorsque le plafond depollution est strictement supérieur au plafond de pollution optimal, la participation descitoyens est socialement bénéfique et n’est jamais socialement dommageable, même enprésence de comportement de passager clandestin. Dans le deuxième chapitre, à partird’exemples de marchés mis en place aux États-Unis et en Europe, nous mettons enévidence l’émergence d’une demande de retrait de permis de la part des citoyens et desONG environnementales. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous montrons qu’il est possible delutter efficacement contre le problème de passager clandestin en subventionnant lademande de retrait de permis des citoyens. Par ailleurs, l’intervention d’une éthique baséesur un postulat de liberté et de souveraineté conduit à recommander l’autorisation descitoyens à participer au marché. Enfin, le dernier chapitre analyse la participation descitoyens dans le cadre d’un modèle de pollution régionale et apprécie leur implication selonla valeur des paramètres des coefficients de transferts de pollution. / Since the Clean Air Act Amendment (1990), the markets of tradable emissionpermits are becoming increasingly attractive. Very few works on the functioning of thesemarkets have analyzed the participation of citizens in order to buy and retire emissionspermits. This dissertation aims to study the effects of allowing citizens to participate inmarkets of tradable emission permits. In the first chapter, we show that when the pollutioncap is strictly greater than the optimal one, citizen’s participation is socially beneficial andnever socially harmful, even in the presence of free-riding. In the second chapter, based onoperating pollution markets in the US and Europe, we highlight the emergence of a demandto purchase and cancel emissions permits. In the third chapter, we show how it is possible topartly solve the free rider problem by subsidizing the citizen’s demand. Moreover, we arguethat an ethics based on the freedom and the sovereignty of citizens commands to allowcitizens participation in pollution market. In the fourth chapter, we focus on citizen’sparticipation in pollution markets with a regional pollution model. Such an implicationdepends on the value of transfer coefficients.

This thesis examines the effects of international capital flows on economic growth by using a dynamic general equilibrium framework based on a three-sector Ramsey Model. In order to detect the impact of financial integration on production, allocation of resources across three sectors and consumption, two different economic environments are modelled. While the first model represents a closed economy with financial autarky, the second model examplifies a financially integrated open economy with partial capital mobility. Each of the models is calibrated to Turkish economy based on the data of the year 2006. The simulation results demonstrate that the presence of international capital flows, despite being limited by a borrowing constraint, reverses the impact of economic growth on production and resource allocation. It is found that even though the importance of production in tradable-goods sector diminishes in the absence of international capital flows, it increases in the open economy model. Moreover, the findings show that while production in the closed economy model simply adjusts to domestic demand, that of the open economy model is not constrained by it. This can be explained by the augmentative effect of partial capital flows on the impact of foreign demand on domestic production.

QC 20110523

This thesis consists of three essays within the field of applied environmental economics, with the common basic aim of analyzing effects of Swedish environmental policy. Starting out from Swedish environmental goals, the thesis assesses a range of policy-related questions. The objective is to quantify policy outcomes by constructing and applying numerical models especially designed for environmental policy analysis. Static and dynamic multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium models are developed in order to analyze the following issues. The costs and benefits of a domestic carbon dioxide (CO2) tax reform. Special attention is given to how these costs and benefits depend on the structure of the tax system and, furthermore, how they depend on policy-induced changes in "secondary" pollutants. The effects of allowing for emission permit trading through time when the domestic long-term domestic environmental goal is specified in CO2stock terms. The effects on long-term projected economic growth and welfare that are due to damages from emission flow and accumulation of "local" pollutants (nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide), as well as the outcome of environmental policy when costs and benefits are considered in an integrated environmental-economic framework. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk., 2001

L'opération de crédit "Schuldscheindarlehen" est apparue dans le paysage bancaire et financier allemand au milieu du XIXème siècle. Son essor, au cours des dernières décennies, rend plus que jamais pertinente la question de sa qualification juridique en droit français. L'opération se présentant comme un prêt de nature syndiquée, aux participations cessibles selon des voies simplifiées, est généralement perçue par les financiers comme un outil efficace de financement de l'économie, véritable troisième voie capable de concurrencer la syndication de crédit et l'emprunt obligataire. L'étude des actes juridiques ayant a priori une fonction centrale dans l'opération (Partie I) met en exergue plusieurs spécificités. La possibilité laissée à un large éventail d'investisseurs (banques, compagnies d'assurance, fonds d'investissement) de participer au contrat de prêt favorise la levée massive des fonds, dans le respect d'un cadre juridique fortement standardisé et allégé. Les reconnaissances de dette (Schuldschein) qui sont émises par l'emprunteur au moment de la formation du contrat de prêt, dont on a pu penser qu'elles participaient à la circulation des créances, ne revêtent pas la qualification de titres financiers en droit allemand, ce qui exclut a fortiori qu'elles soient le support des participations. Ce n'est en revanche pas le cas des accords de cession, qui grâce à leur standardisation et aux règles civilistes de cession de créance de droit allemand plus légères qu'en droit français, contribuent sensiblement à la fongibilité et la négociabilité des créances. Il est soutenu que le "Schuldscheindarlehen" est une opération de crédit sui generis pouvant être décrite comme "quasi-obligataire" (quasi-négociable, quasi-fongible). Au regard du droit français, c'est avec le prêt à bons de caisses nominatifs qu'elle paraît présenter le plus de connivences, sans pour autant être parfaitement assimilable.L'étude des services éventuellement fournis par l'intermédiaire financier (Partie II), lors de la phase de formation de l'opération, comme arrangeur-placeur de participations, et/ou lors de son exécution, comme animateur de marché et/ou agent payeur et/ou fiduciaire, révèle leur contribution respective pour une gestion plus rationnelle et plus efficace de l'opération, qui bénéficie à la liquidité des participations et à la diminution des coûts. Le recours aux produits dérivés et/ou structurés a, en outre, permis de donner récemment naissance à des opérations pour des montants plus petits et des durées plus courtes, rendant accessible aux PME cette source de financement, dans un cadre juridique et des structures d'accompagnement à la solidité éprouvée par plusieurs années de pratique. Si ces mécanismes sont largement connus en droit français et peuvent être employés lors d'une syndication de crédit ou un emprunt obligataire, néanmoins, l'analyse met en évidence que le "Schuldscheindarlehen" peut être utilisé en droit allemand comme structure juridique de base à la titrisation de créances (CDO), en lieu et place d'une émission obligataire. Par ailleurs, les participations sont éligibles aux refinancements sur le marché monétaire, ce qui contribue à rendre l'opération plus attrayante pour les investisseurs. D'autres aspects (p. ex. sûretés, procédures collectives) sont analysés dans l'étude afin de donner une vue aussi complète et actuelle que possible de l'opération. / The credit transaction "Schuldscheindarlehen" appeared in the German banking and financial landscape in the middle of the nineteenth century. Its growth during recent decades makes the question of its legal classification under French law more relevant than ever. The transaction operates as a loan of syndicated nature, with relatively simple ways of transferring participations, and is generally perceived by financiers as an effective tool for financing the real economy. It is a competitive option to financing by way of syndicated loan or bond issue. The analysis of legal documents with a priori a central role in the operation (Part I) highlights several specific features of the operation. The possibility given to a wide range of investors such as banks, insurance companies, and investment funds to participate in the loan agreement promotes massive fundraising within a highly standardized and streamlined legal framework. The debt certificates "Schuldschein" issued by the borrower at the time of the formation of the loan agreement, which were expected to be part of the circulation of debts, are not classified as securities under German law. A fortiori, this excludes them from being used in support of any claims. However, this is not the case for assignment agreements. Assignment agreements contribute significantly to the fungibility and transferability of the participations, owing to their standardization and to German civil law rules of assignment of claims, which are less constraining than French law rules. It is argued in the study that the "Schuldscheindarlehen" is a sui generis form of credit that can be described as "quasi-bond" (quasi-negotiable, quasi-fungible). Under French law the strongest resemblance is with the participation loan “prêt à bons de caisse nominatifs”, without being identical. The analysis of services provided by the financial intermediary (Part II), during the formation phase of the operation -as an arranger-underwriter of the participations, and/or during the running phase, as a market maker and/or a paying agent and/or a trustee- points out their respective contributions to a more rational and efficient management. This favours the liquidity of the participations and decreases the costs. Moreover, the use of derivatives and/or structured products has given birth recently to operations for smaller amounts and shorter durations, making this source of funding accessible to SMEs within a legal framework and support structures, developed by many years of practice. Although these mechanisms are widely known in French law and can be applied to syndicated loan or bond issue, the analysis highlights that "Schuldscheindarlehen" can also be used under German law as the legal structure of a debt securitization (CDO), in lieu of a bond issue. In addition, its participations are eligible for refinancing in the European money market, which helps to make the operation more attractive to investors. Other aspects such as collateral, and insolvency are analyzed in the study in order to give as full and updated a picture of the operation as possible. / Das Kreditgeschäft "Schuldscheindarlehen" bildete sich im deutschen Banken- und Finanzwesen in der Mitte des neunzehnten Jahrhunderts heraus. Das Wachstum der letzten Jahrzehnte macht nun mehr denn je die Frage seiner rechtlichen Einordnung im französischen Recht relevant. Die Operation stellt sich als Darlehen von syndizierter Natur dar, mit Beteiligungen, die in vereinfachter Weise übertragbar sind, wird in der Regel von Finanziers als ein wirksames Instrument für die Finanzierung der Realwirtschaft und präsentiert eine sinnvolle dritte Weise, die ohne Bedenken mit der Kreditsyndizierung und der Anleihe konkurrieren kann. Die Analyse der Rechtsgeschäfte mit einer a priori zentralen Rolle in der Operation (Part I) hebt mehrere Besonderheiten hervor. Die Möglichkeit, die einer Vielzahl unterschiedlichster Investoren (Banken, Versicherungen, Investmentfonds) gegeben ist, sich am Darlehensvertrag zu beteiligen, fördert eine massive Mittelbeschaffung, innerhalb eines rechtlich hoch standardisiert und gestrafften Rahmens. Die Schuldscheine, die durch den Kreditnehmer zum Zeitpunkt der Entstehung des Darlehensvertrags ausgestellt werden, von denen man hätte denken können, dass sie als eine Verbriefungsart der Forderung angesehen werden könnten, werden im deutschen Recht nicht als Wertpapiere eingestuft. A fortiori sind sie als Grund der Beteiligungenverkehrsfähigkeit ausgeschlossen. Dieses ist jedoch nicht der Fall der Abtretungsvereinbarungen, die einen wesentlichen Beitrag zur Fungibilität und Übertragbarkeit der Beteiligungen, aufgrund ihrer Standardisierung und den deutschen zivilrechtlichen Vorschriften der Abtretung von Ansprüchen, die einfacher als mit dem französischen Recht vereinbar sind, leisten. Es wird in der Studie argumentiert, dass das "Schuldscheindarlehen" eine Kreditform sui generis darstellt, die als "Quasi-Anleihe" (quasi-verhandelbar, quasi-fungibel) beschrieben werden kann. Im französischen Recht, scheint es dem Darlehen "prêt à bons de caisse nominatifs" zu ähneln, ohne jedoch vollständig assimilierbar zu sein. Die Analyse von Dienstleistungen durch Finanzvermittler geleistet (Part II), während der Entstehungsphase der Operation, als Arrangeur-Underwriter der Beteiligungen, und/oder während der laufenden Phase, als Market Maker und/oder Zahlstelle und/oder Treuhänder, weist darauf hin, ihre jeweiligen Beiträge zu einer rationelleren und effizienteren Verwaltung des Geschäftes, die der Liquidität der Beteiligungen zugute kommt und die Kosten senkt. Außerdem hat unter anderem der Einsatz von Derivaten und/oder strukturierten Produkten zur Entstehung von Operationen mit kürzeren Laufzeiten und kleineren Beträgen geführt, was diese Finanzierungsquelle zugänglich für KMU gemacht hat, in Bezug mit einem rechtlichen Rahmen und unterstützenden Strukturen, die seit mehreren Jahren Praxiserfahrung bewähren. Wenn diese Mechanismen häufig im französischen Gesetz bekannt sind und bei einer Kreditsyndizierung oder einer Anleihe angewendet werden, zeigt jedoch die Analyse, dass das "Schuldscheindarlehen" nach deutschem Recht auch als rechtliche Struktur einer Verbriefung (CDO) anstelle einer Anleihe verwendet wird. Darüber hinaus sind die Beteiligungen zur Refinanzierung auf dem europäischen Geldmarkt zulässig, was die Operation für Investoren attraktiver macht. Andere Aspekte (z.B. Sicherheiten, Insolvenzen) werden in der Studie analysiert, um ein möglichst vollständiges und aktuelles Bild von der Operation zu geben.

When designing financial incentives for voluntary conservation of threatened habitats and ecosystems, we are faced with the problem that there is no single indicator for "biodiversity value". The value of a habitat depends on multiple factors such as habitat type, area, and spatial and temporal connectivity. Moreover, not only are there local trade-offs between these indicators, but land use changes at one location may also change the value of sites in the vicinity. This doctoral thesis analyzes the consequences of including trade-offs and interactions between sites in market-based conservation schemes. We ask the following questions: How can trade-offs between the survival of different species be quantified? How can spatial processes and temporal processes be included in market-based conservation, in particular the value of spatial and temporal connectivity? And how do underlying economic dynamics relate to the spatio-temporal allocation of conservation measures in market-based conservation schemes?

This thesis investigates the market rules of the European carbon market (EU ETS) during 2005-2007. We provide theoretical and empirical analyses of banking and borrowing provisions, price drivers and risk hedging strategies attached to tradable quotas, which were introduced to cover the CO2 emissions of around 10,600 installations in Europe.In Chapter 1, we outline the economic and environmental effects of banking and borrowing on tradable permits markets. More specifically, we examine the banking and borrowing provisions adopted in the EU ETS, and the effects of banning banking between Phases I and II on CO2 price changes. We show statistically that the low levels of CO2 prices recorded until the end of Phase I may be explained by the restriction on the inter-period tranfer of allowances, besides the main explanations that were identified by market observers.In Chapter 2, we identify the carbon price drivers since the launch of the EU ETS on January 1, 2005. We emphasize the central role played by the 2005 yearly compliance event imposed by the European Commission in revealing the net short/long position at the installation level in terms of allowances allocated with respect to verified emissions. The main result of this study features that price drivers of CO2 allowances linked to energy market prices and unanticipated weather events vary around institutional events. Moreover, we show the influence of the variation of industrial production in three sectors covered by the EU ETS on CO2 price changes by applying a disentangling analysis, that has also been extended at the country-level.In Chapter 3, we focus on the risk hedging strategies linked to holding CO2 allowances. By using a methodology applied on stock markets, we recover the changes in investors' average risk aversion. This study shows that, during the time period considered, risk aversion has been higher on the carbon market than on the stock market, and that the risk is linked to an increasing price structure after the 2006 compliance event. With reference to Chapter 1, we finally evaluate how banking may be used as a risk management tool in order to cope with political uncertainty on a tradable permits market. We detail an optimal risk-sharing rule, and discuss the possibility of pooling the risk linked to allowance trading between agents.Overall, this thesis highlights the inefficiencies following the creation of the European carbon market that prevented the emergence of a price signal leading to effective emissions reductions by industrials. However, in a changing institutional environment, these inefficiencies do not seem to have been transfered to the period 2008-2012.