Bc. Tomáš Pažitný Nuclear latency and the problem of deterrence 2020 Abstract The primary goal of the master's thesis is to uncover the actual impact of latent nuclear deterrence on the decision to avert the conflict. The thesis employs a variety of concepts, including the latent nuclear deterrence, as articulated by Matthew Fuhrmann, to ascertain which one of them plays a vital role in dissuading one country from attacking another one. The influence of respective concepts is examined on the example of two historical case studies, which form the core part of the master's thesis. The first case study presents two crises that occurred in the 1980s between Pakistan as a latent nuclear state and India as the challenging state, eventually dissuaded from the attack. The second case study is devoted to the 1965 crisis between Pakistan as a challenging state and India as a latent nuclear state. This crisis, which eventually led to the war, works as a control case study. The analysis of both cases reveals valuable findings concerning the role of latent nuclear deterrence and nuclear latency in general. Contrary to what would proponents of this weaponless deterrence believe, latent nuclear deterrence was not the central factor when the attack on the latent nuclear state was contemplated. The findings of the master's...

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2018-03-21T12:11:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Raquel de Bessa Gontijo de Oliveira.pdf: 2010350 bytes, checksum: 3bb9fd16aab66146e3196022202d4a1c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-21T12:11:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Raquel de Bessa Gontijo de Oliveira.pdf: 2010350 bytes, checksum: 3bb9fd16aab66146e3196022202d4a1c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-26 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Nuclear weapons proliferation represents a yet unsolved problem in the international security agenda, and it is intimately related to ballistic missile proliferation. Specialized literature on this topic contains different hypotheses about what causes proliferation, which can be distinguished between those that refer to states’ demand for these weapons, and those that emphasize the role of supply, represented by states’ access to sensitive technology through international civil cooperation. In this research, we investigate the role that different factors play in influencing states’ decision to acquire or relinquish nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and we contrapose forces related to demand and supply. Through a quantitative analysis, we identify some relevant correlations, among which the relevance of insecurity as a driving force of proliferation and the apparent irrelevance of access to technology through international cooperation are particularly noteworthy. From our statistical analysis, we select the case of Canadian non-acquisition to be the object of more detained investigation, through which we confirmed the importance of the security context and the marginal role of access to technology, besides identifying an influence of identity aspects on the non-acquisition policy. In light of this, we conclude that factors relating to demand have a far larger impact on proliferation than factors relating to supply / A proliferação de armamentos nucleares representa um problema ainda não solucionado na agenda de segurança internacional, e está intimamente relacionada à proliferação de mísseis balísticos. A literatura sobre este tópico contém diferentes hipóteses sobre o que causa a proliferação, as quais podem ser distinguidas entre aquelas que se referem à demanda que os Estados têm por esses armamentos e aquelas que enfatizam o papel da oferta, ou seja, da facilidade de acesso à tecnologia sensível através da cooperação civil internacional. Nesta pesquisa, investigamos o papel de diferentes elementos sobre as decisões dos Estados de adquirirem, ou não, armamentos nucleares e mísseis balísticos, contrapondo as forças relacionadas à demanda e à oferta. Através de uma análise quantitativa, identificamos algumas correlações relevantes, com destaque para a importância da insegurança como uma força motriz da proliferação e a aparente irrelevância do acesso à tecnologia através de acordos de cooperação internacional. A partir de nossa análise estatística, selecionamos o caso da não-aquisição canadense como objeto para uma investigação mais detida, em que confirmamos a importância do contexto de segurança e o papel marginal do acesso à tecnologia, além de identificarmos uma influência de aspectos identitários sobre a decisão de não-aquisição. Diante disso, concluímos que os fatores relativos à demanda têm impacto muito superior sobre a proliferação do que fatores relacionados à oferta

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards are one method of proliferation resistance which is applied at most nuclear facilities worldwide. IAEA safeguards act to prevent the diversion of nuclear materials from a facility through the deterrence of detection. However, even with IAEA safeguards present at a facility, the country where the facility is located may still attempt to proliferate nuclear material by exploiting weaknesses in the safeguards system. The IAEA's mission is to detect the diversion of nuclear materials as soon as possible and ideally before it can be weaponized. Modern IAEA safeguards utilize unattended monitoring systems (UMS) to perform nuclear material accountancy and maintain the continuity of knowledge with regards to the position of nuclear material at a facility. This research focuses on evaluating the reliability of unattended monitoring systems and integrating the probabilistic failure of these systems into the comprehensive probabilistic proliferation resistance model of a facility. To accomplish this, this research applies reliability engineering analysis methods to probabilistic proliferation resistance modeling. This approach is demonstrated through the analysis of a safeguards design for the Example Sodium Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle Facility (ESFR FCF). The ESFR FCF UMS were analyzed to demonstrate the analysis and design processes that an analyst or designer would go through when evaluating/designing the proliferation resistance component of a safeguards system. When comparing the mean time to failure (MTTF) for the system without redundancies versus one with redundancies, it is apparent that redundancies are necessary to achieve a design without routine failures. A reliability engineering approach to probabilistic safeguards system analysis and design can be used to reach meaningful conclusions regarding the proliferation resistance of a UMS. The methods developed in this research provide analysts and designers alike a process to follow to evaluate the reliability of a UMS.

One of the most frequent questions in the study of Chinese foreign policy is whether China can be regarded as a responsible member of international society. It is the aim of the presented thesis to look more closely at China's behaviour in the present international society in terms of responsibility. The thesis utilizes the concept of international society developed by the English school of international relations and interconnects it with the concept of responsibility in international relations to determine a set of criteria which an ordinary state or great power must meet in order to be regarded as responsible in the present international society. In order to determine whether China behaves as a responsible ordinary state or great power on the international level, the thesis utilizes the method of the most likely and the least likely case studies. The analysis of China's behaviour in the World Trade Organization and within the nuclear non-proliferation regime can provide sufficient evidence of China's acceptance of primary institutions forming the backbone of the present international society. The findings have serious implications for thinking of contemporary China as a status quo state respecting institutions and rules of the present international society.

Energy production systems are essential for human progress. They fuel the technologies that underpin economic growth and are prerequisite for efficient food production, education and healthcare. On the flip side, they also incur substantial eco-social costs. Hence, finding and promoting sustainable means of energy production is a key topic within the Environmental Sciences. This thesis examines the sustainability of nuclear power, by comparing its social, economic and ecological impacts to those of wind and solar power. The assessment is performed using Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA), with a Weighted Sum scoring system and a Distance-To-Target weighting scheme. The selection and the weighting of the indicators are grounded in the Planetary Boundaries framework, the Oxfam Doughnut Economics model and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, and the technologies are compared on 9 axes of evaluation; greenhouse gas emissions, land-take requirements, material throughput, non-recyclable wastes, toxic and radioactive wastes, negative health impacts, economic costs, intermittency and energy return on energy invested. The thesis finds nuclear power to be the most sustainable option according to all but three indicators, and in the unified analysis, it outcompetes wind and solar by a factor of 2 and 3 respectively. Also notable is that solar power does not excel in a single impact category; it has the highest greenhouse gas emissions, the largest land-take, and it is costly, intermittent and energy-inefficient. It is also a source of toxic pollution, the effects of which cannot yet be determined. Although wind is more competitive, it consumes vast amounts of physical resources, generates a lot of waste, and its land-take is at least 10 times higher than that of nuclear power. In addition to the MCA, the thesis investigates three perceived threats that are often raised in criticisms of nuclear power; the risk of nuclear fuel depletion, the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation and the risk of catastrophic nuclear accidents. The results show that many popular arguments against the technology are loosely aligned with reality, and the thesis as a whole presents a challenge to the notion that nuclear power is a dangerous and unsustainable energy source.

Thesis (MA (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The United States of America (USA) has a new president in the White House - a president whose rhetoric appears to distance himself from the policies of the previous administration. This also appears to hold true for his approach with regard to nuclear nonproliferation. The overarching research aim of this study is to explore whether the Obama administration’s policy with regard to nuclear non-proliferation will differ significantly from that of the Bush administration. The broader subject of nuclear non-proliferation will be subdivided into three themes, namely: disarmament, proliferation by non-nuclear states and nuclear terrorism. In order to sketch the international context within which the USA’s policy must be viewed, an overview of the nuclear non-proliferation regime is provided. This will be followed by an exploration of disarmament, proliferation by nonnuclear states (with Iran and North Korea as case studies) and nuclear terrorism. In each case, a comparison between the Bush administration and the Obama administration’s policies will be done. Finally, an analysis will be done of the main similarities and differences between the two administrations’ approaches, with a focus on the use of hard, soft and smart power. The study concludes that the primary difference between the Bush and Obama administration’s approaches is that Bush pursued only one policy option (hard power) at a time, while Obama intends to use many different policy options (smart power) at the same time, with a focus on increasing the use of soft power. This sort of pragmatism may just be what the USA needs right now in order to address the problem of nuclear proliferation. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Verenigte State van Amerika (VSA) het ‘n nuwe president in die Withuis – ‘n president wie se uitsprake hom van die beleide van die vorige administrasie blyk te distansieer. Dit wil ook voorkom asof dit van toepassing is op sy benadering tot kernwapen versperring. Die oorhoofse navorsingsdoelwit van hierdie studie is om te ondersoek of die Obama administrasie se beleid ten opsigte van kernwapen versperring aansienlik van die van die Bush administrasie gaan verskil. Die breër onderwerp van kernwapen versperring kan in drie temas opgedeel word, naamlik: ontwapening, proliferasie deur nie-kernwapenstate, en kernwapen terrorisme. Ten einde die internasionale konteks te skets waarin die VSA se beleid moet geskied, begin die studie met ‘n oorsig van die kernwapen versperring regime. Dit word gevolg deur ‘n ondersoek van onderskeidelik ontwapening, proliferasie deur nie-kernwapenstate (met Iran en Noord-Korea as gevallestudies) en kernwapen terrorisme. By elkeen van die drie temas word ‘n vergelyking tussen die Bush administrasie en die Obama adminstrasie se beleide getref. Laastens word ‘n analise van die hoof verskille en ooreenkomste tussen die twee administrasies se benaderings onderneem, met die klem op die gebruik van harde, sagte en slim mag. Die bevinding van die studie is dat die hoof verskille tussen die Bush en Obama administrasies se benaderings behels dat Bush slegs een beleidsopsie (harde mag) op ‘n slag nagevolg het, terwyl Obama beoog om terselfdertyd van verskillende beleidsopsies (slim mag) gebruik te maak, met veral ‘n fokus op ‘n toename in die gebruik van sagte mag. Die soort pragmatisme mag dalk net wees wat die VSA tans nodig het om die probleem van kernwapen proliferasie aan te spreek.

L’arme nucléaire, arme de destruction massive par excellence, est unique en son genre par son potentiel de destruction inédit et par le caractère indiscriminé de ses frappes. Véritable menace pour l’humanité, ce type d’arme se doit d’être encadré par un régime conventionnel international de non-prolifération et de désarmement des armes nucléaires fort et complet. Dans les faits, celui-ci comporte des lacunes. Ce mémoire s’intéresse au mécanisme de retrait de ce régime conventionnel international. Plus particulièrement, nous proposons une analyse de la procédure de dénonciation retrouvée dans le Traité sur la non-prolifération des armes nucléaires de 1968 (TNP), pièce maîtresse du régime, et dans le Traité New Start de 2010, seul traité en vigueur entre les deux superpuissances nucléaires, les États-Unis et la Russie. L’étude du retrait de la Corée du Nord du TNP en 2003 ainsi que des enseignements du régime général de droit international introduit par la Convention de Vienne sur le droit des traités de 1969 viennent approfondir l’examen. On dévoile un mécanisme de retrait somme toute peu contraignant reposant largement sur le pouvoir arbitraire de l’État partie, malgré la menace importante pour la paix et pour la sécurité internationales engendrée par une telle décision. Jumelée à des mesures de suivi quasi inexistantes pour donner suite au retrait d’un État du TNP, cette situation laisse la communauté internationale face à une situation hautement dangereuse. À la lumière du mécanisme de retrait retrouvé dans l’Union européenne et tel qu’illustré par le récent cas du Brexit, ce mémoire propose de possibles pistes de solution pour renforcer le mécanisme de retrait du cadre juridique international de non-prolifération et de désarmement des armes nucléaires. / Nuclear weapons, the apex of weapons of mass destruction, are unique in the facet that they have an unprecedented potential for destruction, as well as in the fact that nuclear strikes are indiscriminate. This type of weapon, which represents a real threat to humanity, must be regulated by a strong and complete international conventional regimen of non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament. Nonetheless, the latter suffers from deficiencies. This master’s thesis focuses on the withdrawal mechanism found in this international legal field. The spotlight is more specifically directed on its cornerstone treaty, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of 1968 (NPT), and on the New Start Treaty of 2010, the only agreement which regulates the nuclear stockpiles of the nuclear superpowers, Russia and the United States of America. The analysis is enhanced by the study of the 2003 North-Korean withdrawal from the NPT and of the principles introduced by the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties of 1969. A rather soft withdrawal mechanism, which relies largely on the discretion of the State party, is revealed, despite the threat to international peace and security a decision to withdraw represents. This deficiency, paired with inexistent follow-up measures, leaves the international community facing a highly dangerous situation. The examination of the more substantiated withdrawal mechanism found in the European Union’s body of law, as illustrated by the Brexit, allows us to suggest possible solutions to strengthen the NPT withdrawal mechanism as well as potential follow-up measures to be implemented following the withdrawal of a State party.