Infrastructure projects frequently exceed their budgets in both time and cost, which often burdens the taxpayers. A significant percentage of these projects are neither complex nor unique, where the contract sum is a fraction of the contract sum of known megaprojects however has a higher percentage of cost overruns. The purpose of this study is to identify the cause, particularly the explanation behind these small and uncomplicated infrastructure projects' time and cost overruns, and to propose methods to avoid this wastage of taxpayer money. To achieve this purpose, a qualitative case study has been conducted within the scope of the Swedish Transport Administration's (Trafikverket) Investment division in the Eastern region in Uppsala, with a focus on pedestrian and bicycle paths. Empirical data has been gathered using Trafikverket's tools for deviation management, and semi-structured interviews were conducted with forecasters at Trafikverket's Investment division in Uppsala. A literature review has been made and were used to better interpret the empirical results. The identified causes are manifold but can be summarized as legal, political, and bureaucratic obstacles, communication issues, working methods, lack of experience and bad luck. The explanations for time and cost overruns can solely be attributed to the phenomenon of optimism bias, as this encompasses the forecaster's role as a decision maker in the project and the extent to which they could anticipate emerging situations. To mitigate optimism bias, the method of reference class forecasting is proposed. Furthermore, it is suggested to Trafikverket to reconsider the intervals of forecasting to be reviewed and adjusted according to the industry's way of setting forecasts on time. In conclusion, this study states that this is an important topic for future research in cost overruns in infrastructure projects. The recommendation is to focus on small and uncomplicated infrastructure projects. In addition, research must find the explanations for the causes of cost overruns before addressing the problem with appropriate methods.

Bakgrund och problem: Projekt präglas vanligtvis av en otillräcklig måluppfyllelse, exempelvis gällande tid, kostnad och kvalitet. Detta går även att finna vid anläggnings- och infrastrukturprojekt, vilka dessutom är betydande för samhällets möjligheter för kommunikation och transport. Att infrastrukturprojekt, vilka bedrivs av den offentliga verksamheten Trafikverket, inte uppnår sina mål resulterar i förseningar och att skattepengar inte nyttjas maximalt. Detta tyder även på att projekten är svårstyrda utifrån de föränderliga förutsättningar och risker som präglar projekttypen, vilket gör det relevant att studera ämnet vidare.  Syfte: Syftet med studien är att öka kunskapen om hur styrningen går tillväga vid vägprojekt med fokus på förutsättningar och risker. Detta utförs genom att beskriva hur Trafikverkets process styrs i vägprojekt och identifiera samt analysera förutsättningar och risker som kan påverka projekten. Metod: Studien är en kvalitativ flerfallsstudie inom Trafikverket. Det teoretiska materialet har erhållits från vetenskapliga artiklar, litteratur och rapporter. Det empiriska materialet är insamlat genom ett snöbollsurval där åtta respondenter inkluderades. Totalt genomfördes elva semistrukturerade intervjuer. Webbsidor och dokument är också en del av det empiriskt insamlade materialet. Vid genomförandet av studien har vi utgått ifrån forskningsetiska överväganden och kvalitetskriterier, i syfte att öka dess pålitlighet, trovärdighet, konfirmering och överförbarhet.  Slutsats: Studien konstaterar att vägprojekt styrs utifrån en version av stage-gate-modellen och att det även finns inslag av den agila metoden angående riskhanteringen. Styrtriangelns tre dimensioner tid, kostnad och kvalitet utgör ett fokus inom vägprojekt, dimensionen kvalitet beskrivs däremot som innehåll. Förutom att styrtriangeln består av ett inre beroende finns även en yttre påverkan gentemot andra projekt. Detta innebär att ett projekts styrtriangel har en inverkan på ett annat projekts dimensioner, vilket är ett teoretiskt bidrag som studien belyst. Det identifierades även totalt åtta förutsättningar, sex risker och åtta faktorer som betraktas vara både förutsättningar och risker inom vägprojekt. Samtliga av dessa förutsättningar och risker styrs samt hanteras. Det redogörs för att dessa påverkar varandra, vilket styrningen av dem bör ta hänsyn till. Sammantaget fastställs det att styrningen av vägprojekt är komplext på grund av dessa samband och uppkomsten av oförutsägbara händelser. Detta bidrar till en praktisk och teoretisk kunskap angående styrningen med hänsyn till förutsättningar och risker eftersom dessa har studerats i samband med varandra. / Background and problem: Projects are usually characterized by insufficient goal fulfillment, regarding time, cost and quality for example. This can also be found in construction and infrastructure projects, which are important for society's opportunities for communication and transport. The fact that infrastructure projects, which are carried out by the public authority Trafikverket, do not achieve their goals, results in delays and that tax money is not used to the maximum. This also indicates that the projects are difficult to manage on the basis of the changing conditions and risks that characterize the project type, which makes it relevant to study the subject further. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to increase the knowledge of how management is used in road projects with a focus on conditions and risks. This is accomplished by describing how Trafikverkets process is managed in road projects and identifying and analyzing conditions and risks that can affect the projects. Method: The study is a qualitative multi-case study within Trafikverket. The theoretical material has been obtained from scientific articles, literature and reports. The empirical material was collected through a snowball selection in which eight respondents were included. In total, eleven semi-structured interviews were conducted. Web pages and documents are also part of the empirically collected material. In conducting the study, we included research ethical considerations and quality criteria, with the aim of increasing its reliability, credibility, confirmation and transferability. Conclusion: The study finds that road projects are managed based on a version of the stage-gate model and that there are also elements of the agile method regarding risk management. The three dimensions in the iron triangle time, cost and quality are a focus within road projects, but the quality dimension is described as content. In addition to the iron triangle consisting of an internal dependency, there is also an external influence on other projects. This means that one project's control triangle has an impact on another project's dimensions, which is a theoretical contribution that the study illustrated. A total of eight conditions, six risks and eight factors were also identified, which are considered to be both conditions and risks in road projects. All of these conditions and risks are managed. It is stated that these affect each other, which their management should take into account. Overall, it is determined that the management of road projects is complex due to these relationships and the occurrence of unpredictable events. This contributes to a practical and theoretical knowledge of the management with regard to the conditions and risks as these have been studied in conjunction with each other.

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