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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
51

Déploiement large échelle du POCIS pour l’évaluation de la contamination par les pesticides dans les eaux de surface : apports et complémentarité dans le cadre des réseaux de surveillance du bassin Adour-Garonne / Large-scale deployment of POCIS for the evaluation of pesticide contamination in surface waters : contribution and complementarity within the Adour-Garonne basin monitoring networks

Bernard, Marion 10 December 2018 (has links)
Les milieux aquatiques sont les réceptacles finaux des pesticides organiques et inorganiques. Ainsi, des textes réglementaires fixant des objectifs afin de préserver et restaurer l’état des milieux aquatiques ont été établis (ex. Directive Cadre sur l’Eau). Ces textes réglementaires ou les programmes d'actions s'accompagnent de la mise en place de réseaux de suivi de la qualité des eaux. Ces suivis sont effectués via la réalisation de prélèvements ponctuels d'eau, fournissant une donnée souvent sujette à un manque de représentativité temporelle. Pour estimer de façon plus robuste une concentration moyenne dans le temps, des techniques d’échantillonnage passif ont été développées. Celles-ci permettent la pré-concentration in situ des contaminants et disposent d’une capacité intégrative sur plusieurs semaines. Ces travaux de thèse sont axés sur le Polar Organic Chemical Integrative Sampler (POCIS), largement utilisé pour l’échantillonnage des pesticides moyennement polaires et non ionisables (0<log Kow<4).Le premier volet de ces travaux de thèse avait pour objectif de tester la capacité du POCIS à intégrer de brèves variations de concentration en pesticides. Pour ce faire, une expérimentation simulant des pics de contamination d’intensités et de durées variables a été menée dans des conditions contrôlées de laboratoire. Cette expérimentation a démontré que la réactivité du POCIS face à de tels événements était dépendante des propriétés physico-chimiques des pesticides ciblés (notamment du log Kow) et de la durée d’exposition. Des profils d’accumulation différents ont été observés, avec deux phénomènes opposés survenus en début d’exposition, soit le « burst effect » ou le « lag effect ». Malgré ces deux phénomènes, le domaine d’applicabilité du POCIS a été mieux défini puisqu’il a été démontré que pour des pesticides caractérisés par un log Kow entre 2 et 4, les pics de contamination étaient bien pris en compte dans la concentration moyennée obtenue.Le second volet de ces travaux devait définir à large échelle l’apport du POCIS en complément des réseaux de suivi basés sur les prélèvements ponctuels. Dans ce contexte, 51 sites du réseau de contrôle DCE localisés sur les cours d’eau du bassin Adour-Garonne ont été échantillonnés 6 fois en 2016 via ces deux techniques. L’exploitation des données acquises pendant cette année de terrain s’est découpée en deux axes. Le premier avait pour objectif de comparer les informations fournis via les deux techniques. L’apport des caractéristiques intégratives du POCIS y a été démontré. En effet, le POCIS permet d’améliorer significativement le nombre de pesticides quantifiés ainsi que leur fréquence de quantification. De plus, il fournit une meilleure représentativité temporelle des niveaux de contamination mesurés, puisqu’il permet d’avoir une image plus réaliste des variations annuelles des concentrations en lien avec les usages des pesticides ciblés (saisonnalité). Ainsi, la combinaison de ces deux techniques a permis une meilleure caractérisation de la pression « pesticides » subie par le bassin Adour-Garonne.Le second axe visait à proposer une méthodologie d’exploitation automatisée permettant une interprétation visuelle et simple d’un jeu de données conséquent (> 10 000 données). Les données acquises avec les POCIS ont été utilisées pour réaliser des analyses multivariées, type « principal component analysis » et « hierarchical cluster analysis » afin de démontrer des liens entre occupation du sol et pesticides quantifiés. De plus, l’empreinte « pesticides » de chaque site a été établie. Ainsi, ce dernier axe a permis une meilleure caractérisation des zones les plus à risques ainsi qu’une identification rapide des sources potentielles.Ces travaux de thèse ont donc démontré des aspects fondamentaux et appliqués qui confirment l’intérêt du POCIS pour évaluer la qualité des eaux superficielles vis-à-vis des pesticides. / The aquatic environments are considered as the final receptacles of organic or inorganic pesticides. Thus, regulatory texts were established in order to preserve and restore the good status for the aquatic environments (e.g. Water Framework Directive). Currently, the conventional method for freshwater analysis is grab sampling several times per year with a lack of temporal representativeness. To overcome this issue, and in the aim of estimating a robust average concentration over time, passive sampling strategies have been developed. These samplers allow an in situ pre-concentration of contaminants and offer an integrative capacity of several weeks. This thesis focuses on the Polar Organic Chemical Integrative Sampler (POCIS), which is widely used for the sampling of moderately polar or no-ionizable pesticides (0<log Kow<4).The first part of this thesis aimed to test the POCIS capacity to integrate short pesticides contamination peaks. In this way, a laboratory controlled-conditions experiment which included pesticides contamination peaks of variable intensity and duration was performed over 14 days. This experiment proved that POCIS response depends on physico-chemical properties of the studied pesticides and also on the exposure duration. During the first part of the exposure period two different phenomena were observed, which were a “burst effect” or a “lag effect”. Despite these, short contamination peaks were well integrated in the time weighted average concentration, for pesticides with log Kow between 2 and 4.The second part of this thesis was to define, at a large scale, the contribution of POCIS as a complement to the monitoring networks based on grab samples. In this context, 51 monitoring stations located in the Adour-Garonne basin were sampled with these two techniques during 6 periods in 2016. The analysis of the large amount of data collected during this 1-year monitoring was divided into two axes. Firstly, information provided with POCIS and grab samples was compared. The contribution of the integrative capacity of POCIS was demonstrated; this capacity allowed us to obtain additional and complementary information to those of the monitoring networks. Indeed, POCIS improved significantly the number of quantified pesticides as well as their quantification frequency. Moreover, POCIS brought a better temporal representativeness of contamination levels, since it provided a more realistic picture of the annual variations in concentration levels related to the seasonality in the use of some pesticides. Thus, the combination of grab samples and POCIS provided a better assessment of pesticide contamination levels in the Adour-Garonne basin.The second axis aimed to propose an automated methodology allowing a visual and simple interpretation of a large dataset (> 10,000 data). Data acquired with POCIS were used to demonstrate correlations between land use and quantified pesticides. In this context, multivariate analyses, such as hierarchical clustering and principal component analyses, confirmed the relationship between land use in the watershed and the major pesticides quantified. Then, the "pesticide" fingerprint of each site was established. Finally, this last axis has made it possible to better characterize the sites most at risk and to quickly identify potential sources.This thesis work demonstrated fundamental and applied aspects, which confirm the interest of the POCIS in assessing the freshwater quality for pesticides.
52

Mapping Power Peaks and Split Incentives in University Campus: Exploring Tenant- Landlord Dynamics : A Case Study of the Royal Institute of Technology, KTH Campus / Kartläggning av effekttoppar och split incentives på Universitetscampus: Utforskning av dynamiken mellan hyresgäst och fastighetsägare : En fältstudie vid Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, KTH Campus

Svärd, Caroline, Hållén, Matilda January 2023 (has links)
The real estate sector in Sweden accounts for a significant share of energy consumption andgreenhouse gas emissions in society. The increased electrification, driven by factors such asdigitalization and the use of electric cars, further contributes to the industry's climate impact.However, there are opportunities for property owners to effectively manage electricityconsumption and reduce the negative climate impact. Managing power peaks, which occurduring periods of high electricity consumption, is crucial to reduce strain on the power gridand the use of fossil fuels. It is also a key factor in achieving international sustainability goalssuch as Agenda 2030 and the Paris Agreement. Reducing peak loads can also lead to lowerelectricity costs for buildings. The purpose of this study has been to investigate the challenges and opportunities for reducingpeak power demand at KTH Campus in Östermalm, Stockholm, and to examine theenvironmental and economic benefits that can be achieved through this. Using data providedby the real estate company Akademiska Hus, an overview of the overall electricity consumptionat KTH Campus was conducted. In addition, potential measures to reduce peak power demandand finding common incentives for tenants and property owners for implementing suchinvestments were investigated through a qualitative study. The results of the study show that there are measures that property owners can take to reducepower peaks. The suggested measures include both technical investments and influencing andchanging tenants' electricity consumption. The analysis of electricity usage for the study objectrevealed that the hour that primarily should be assessed is 12:00 PM, when the highest numberof power peaks occur. Additionally, potential measures such as upgrading ventilation systemsand optimising the use of laboratory fume hoods were identified to reduce electricityconsumption and, in turn, power peaks at KTH Campus. Improved data utilisation andtransparent knowledge sharing between tenants and property owners can be key tosuccessfully reducing power peaks. Challenges in implementing the proposed measuresinvolve changing tenants' behaviour and managing split incentives between the landlord andtenant. The focus of this study was to analyse existing data on power load distribution andcomprehend it through interviews with experts within the field. Another way of conducting asimilar type of study on how to reduce power peaks could be to develop different strategiesfor analysing data or gathering alternative data. / Den svenska fastighetssektorn står för en betydande andel av energiförbrukningen ochutsläppen av växthusgaser i samhället. Ökad elektrifiering, drivet av faktorer som digitaliseringoch användning av elbilar, bidrar ytterligare till branschens klimatpåverkan. Det finnsemellertid möjligheter för fastighetsägare att effektivt hantera elförbrukningen och minskaden negativa klimatpåverkan. Att hantera effekttoppar, som uppstår under perioder med högelförbrukning, är avgörande för att minska belastningen på elnätet och användningen avfossila bränslen. Det är också en viktig faktor för att uppnå internationella hållbarhetsmål somAgenda 2030 och Parisavtalet. Minskade effekttoppar kan även leda till lägre elkostnader förbyggnader. Syftet med denna studie har varit att undersöka utmaningar och möjligheter att minskaeffekttoppar i elförbrukningen på KTH Campus på Östermalm, Stockholm, och att undersökade miljömässiga och ekonomiska fördelarna som kan uppnås genom detta. Med hjälp av datafrån fastighetsbolaget Akademiska Hus genomfördes en kartläggning av den totalaelförbrukningen vid KTH Campus. Dessutom undersöktes potentiella åtgärder för att minskaeffekttoppar och att hitta gemensamma incitament för hyresgäster och fastighetsägare attimplementera sådana investeringar genom en kvalitativ studie. Resultaten av studien visar att det finns åtgärder som fastighetsägare kan vidta för att minskaeffekttopparna. De föreslagna åtgärderna inkluderar både tekniska investeringar och påverkansamt förändring av hyresgästers elförbrukning. Analysen av elförbrukningen för studieobjektetvisade att timmen som i huvudsak bör beaktas är kl. 12:00, då flest effekttoppar förekommer.Dessutom identifierades potentiella åtgärder som uppgradering av ventilationssystem ochoptimering av användningen av dragskåp i labb för att minska elförbrukningen och därmedäven effekttopparna vid KTH Campus. Förbättrad användning av data och transparentkunskapsdelning mellan hyresgäster och fastighetsägare är också potentiella lösningar för attfrämja investeringar i energieffektivitet. Utmaningar med att implementera de föreslagnaåtgärderna innefattar att ändra hyresgästers beteende och hantera delade incitament mellanfastighetsägare och hyresgäster. Fokus för denna studie var att analysera data över effektförbrukningen på KTH och skapaförståelse genom intervjuer med kunniga inom området. Ett annat sätt att genomföra enliknande studie om hur man minskar effekttoppar skulle kunna vara att utveckla olikastrategier för att analysera data eller samla alternativ data.
53

Returning to Kolchak: Polymediated Narrative, Discourse, and Supernatural Drama

Herrmann, Andrew F., Herbig, Art 01 January 2018 (has links)
Scholars are paying a great deal of attention to the complexity of the stories being created for print, film, television, and the Web. In this essay, we expand on the concept of polymediated narrative complexity in contemporary storyworlds to explore how external discourses influence their legacies and interpretations. Our exploration of the relationship between complex narratives and the discourses in which they participate focuses on one television genre and starts with one television program: Kolchak: The Night Stalker. We argue that Kolchak remains an important and ever-evolving discursive fragment within the supernatural drama genre.
54

Audibility &amp; Preference of DA Overload Associated with True Peak : Investigation of claims made against overload prevention

Strand, Mattias January 2023 (has links)
The conversion of audio from the digital to analog domain has the potential to result in distortion due to converter overload. This occurs because some peaks in the signal cannot be defined digitally and only become problematic during the conversion into the analog domain, exceeding the level that can be represented by the converter, causing it to overload. Although True Peak limiting and metering can prevent and monitor this issue, some professional mastering engineers choose not to do so. The study tested claims made against overload prevention, including the adequacy of headroom in modern D/A converters and the inaudibility of the distortion caused by overload. Preference was also added to the audibility claim. Measurements show that there is not enough headroom in modern D/A converters to avoid overload, but the distortion created by overload is generally inaudible in an uncompressed WAVE format hard rock song. Additionally, there is no clear preference. The measurements found that overload only occurs when the device's volume is raised to its maximum output.
55

Power systems with local PV-generation and battery storage for peak shaving to provide flexibility services to the utility grid

Jansson, Vincent January 2022 (has links)
Due to the increased demand for electricity in recent years and the estimated demand in the future it has become clear that the capacity of the Swedish electrical grid is insufficient, and the grid is not able deliver the amount of power that is demanded by the market. The crucial points in the grid where the grid capacity is insufficient could be several. It could be in the transmission system but also at locations in the distribution system, such as congestion points for residential areas for example. For the grid to be able to meet the new demands large investments are needed to renew electricity grid. This will cost a lot of money and it will take several years before the grid capacity is up to scale. A problem is that the grid must be dimensioned for the highest power peaks that could be expected even though these might occur just a few times every year. As a response to this a new market for flexibility solutions in the grid has arisen. An example of a flexibility solution is a method called peak-shaving. Peak-shaving is a method that levels out the overall load-profile and so on reduces the highest power-peaks. The aim of this thesis was to investigate how integrated power systems with battery storageinstalled in household villas could implement peak-shaving with the purpose of providing a flexibility-service to the grid. The study includes theoretical simulations, as well as practical experiments and performance analyses of installed systems. The study also includes an investigation how the current price model and tax rules create incentives for costumers to provide this flexibility service. Firstly, a theoretical simulation model in MATLAB was developed that could make a virtual simulation of the result from implementation of peak-shaving based on historical data of the power profile of the household. After this, experimental tests were conducted for three households where peak-shaving was implemented. With the data from the experiments the performance and potential deficiency of the installed systems could be analysed. With the recorded data from the experiments and with collected data of the hourly based price for electricity it could be studied what impact peak-shaving has on the costs for the household and so on what incentives the price model and tax rules creates to implement peak-shaving.What could be concluded in the study was that peak-shaving has a good potential to reduce power-peaks and provide flexibility to the grid. The results from the tests showed that the power-peaks were able to be reduced but the power systems did however have some observed deficiencies that reduced their performance. It could also be concluded that the current price model and tax rules often increases the costs when implementing peak-shaving and so on create poor incentives to provide this flexibility service.
56

Energieffektivisering av luftningssteget på Käppalaverket, Lidingö / Energy optimization of the aeration at Käppala wastewater treatment plant in Stockholm

Thunberg, Andreas January 2007 (has links)
<p>This master thesis in energy optimization was made during the autumn of 2006 at Käppala wastewater treatment plant in Lidingö, Stockholm. A preceding thesis, where all electricity consumption was mapped, showed that the aeration in the biological treatment is the single largest consumer in the plant, and it is therefore of interest to reduce this cost. The oxygen control strategy used at Käppala WWTP is working well from a nutrient removal point of view, but not from an economic one. The last aerobic zones have a very low oxygen consumption during low loading periods which give rise to enhanced dissolved oxygen concentrations with excessive costs and reduced denitrification as a result. But also during periods of normal loading unnecessary high oxygen concentration are sometimes given.</p><p>By modifying the aeration control strategy three full-scale experiments have been made, with the intention to reduce the air consumption. The experiments were carried out during week 37-50 in the autumn of 2006 and showed that savings could be made.</p><p>The regular oxygen control at Käppala WWTP controls the oxygen level in the aerobic compartment with two DO-setpoints; one in the first aerobic zone and one in the last. The zones in between are controlled by an airflow fractionation depending on the oxygen level in the first and last zone. In the first strategy to be evaluated, all four zones in the aerated part were individually controlled with its own setpoint. Two different setpoint combinations were tested. By using the fact that the efficiency in the oxygen transfer rate was higher at low airflows, savings of approximately 16 % were achieved. In the second strategy tested, an ammonia-feedback control combined with a DO-feedback controlled the DO-set point in the first aerobic zone. This strategy adjusted the DO- set points to the loading variations, and this gave a decreased airflow of approximately 9 %. Finally the two strategies were combined. All zones were then controlled individually with DO-set points set by an ammonium-feedback and a DO-feedback. The strategy gave savings in the airflow of approximately 18 %. In all three trials the aerated zones were more efficiently used, and the estimated savings are 550 000 SEK/year, and with a preserved nutrient removal efficiency.</p> / <p>Under hösten 2006 har ett examensarbete om energieffektivisering på Käppalaverket på Lidingö utförts. Ett föregående examensarbete där all elenergiförbrukning kartlades visade att blåsmaskinerna i biosteget står för den enskilt största förbrukningen i verket och det är därför av intresse att minska denna kostnad. Syrestyrningsstrategin som används på Käppalaverket fungerar mycket bra ur reningssynpunkt, men är inte optimal ur energisynpunkt. Dels luftas de första aeroba zonerna för mycket vid låg belastning vilket ger upphov till kraftigt förhöjda syrekoncentrationer i de sista aeroba zonerna med höga luftningskostnader och risk för försämrad denitrifikation, men även under normal belastning har det visat sig att onödigt höga syrekoncentrationer ibland ges.</p><p>Tre fullskaliga optimeringsförsök har utförts, med syfte att minska luftförbrukningen med bibehållen reningsgrad. Försöken pågick från vecka 37 till 50 hösten 2006, och visade att det finns möjlighet att spara energi genom att modifiera syrestyrningsstrategin.</p><p>Den reguljära syreregleringen i Käppalaverket styr syrehalten i den aeroba bassängen mot två syrebörvärden; ett i den första luftade zonen och ett i den sista. Luftflödet till de mellanliggande zonerna styrs av luftflödesandelar beroende på syrehalten i dessa två zoner. Den första strategin som utvärderades styrde istället samtliga zoner individuellt med egna börvärden, där två olika strukturer på de satta börvärdena användes. Genom att utnyttja en högre effektivitet i syreöverföringshastigheten vid låga luftflöden uppnåddes luftflödesbesparingar på ca 16 % i första försöket.</p><p>I den andra strategin styrdes syrebörvärdet i den första luftade zonen med hjälp av två återkopplingar, en från utgående ammoniumhalt och en från syrehalten i den sista luftade zonen.</p><p>Tack vare att strategin anpassade syrebörvärdena efter belastningen av syretärande ämnen erhölls luftflödesbesparingar på ca 9 %. Slutligen kombinerades de två strategierna; samtliga zoner styrdes individuellt med börvärden satta av en ammonium-återkoppling och en syre-återkoppling. Strategin medförde luftflödesbesparingar på ca 18 %. I samtliga försök utnyttjades de luftade zonerna bättre, och besparingspotentialen uträknad från 2005 års elpriser blev som mest 550 000 SEK/år, detta med en bibehållen reningsgrad.</p>
57

Modelování závislosti mezi hydrologickými a meteorologickými veličinami měřenými v několika stanicích / Modelling dependence between hydrological and meteorological variables measured on several stations

Turčičová, Marie January 2012 (has links)
Title: Modelling dependence between hydrological and meteorological variables measured on several stations Author: Bc. Marie Turčičová Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: Prof. RNDr. Daniela Jarušková CSc., Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Mathematics Abstract: The aim of the thesis is to explore the dependence of daily discharge averages of the Opava river on high daily precipitation values in its basin. Three methods are presented that can be used for analyzing the dependence between high values of random variables. Their application on the studied data is also given. First it is the tail-dependence coefficient that measures the dependence between high values of two continuous random variables. The model for the high quantiles of the discharge at a given precipitation value was first determined non-parametrically by quantile regression and then parametrically through the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method. Keywords: extremal dependence, tail-dependence coefficient, quantile regression, peaks over threshold method
58

Systémové zóny v kapilární elektroforéze / System zones in capillary electrophoresis

Riesová, Martina January 2013 (has links)
Martina Riesová Abstract of Ph.D. Thesis Capillary electrophoresis is a method of choice in many analytical laboratories for its high separation efficiency, rapidity, low consumption of chemicals and therefore low costs. Inherent to each electrophoretic separation system are system peaks, which can significantly affect or confuse the electrophoretic results. In capillary zone electrophoresis, position of system zones can be predicted easily and reliably by means of prediction software based on a theoretical description of electromigration. However, the prediction of only position of a system zone may not be sufficient for identification of system peaks in obtained electropherograms. Therefore, an existing theoretical model was significantly extended and new version of PeakMaster software (PeakMaster 5.3) was introduced in the framework of this thesis. PeakMaster 5.3 enables to predict not only the positions of system zones, but also their shapes and polarity. Thus, PeakMaster 5.3 improves the prediction possibility of overlapping or interaction of system peaks with analyte peaks. Moreover, composition of the sample can be optimized in order to obtain convenient shapes and amplitudes of system peaks. The applicability of capillary zone electrophoresis can be extended by addition of a complexation agent into...
59

Srovnání organizace dohledu nad finančním trhem v jednotlivých zemích Evropské unie / A comparison of the organization of supervision over the financial market in individual EU member states

Bízek, Tomáš January 2017 (has links)
In my diploma thesis, I aim to define and compare models of financial market supervision used in the European Union member states. Furthermore, I try to analyze the development of these states between 2001 and 2015. Lastly, I attempt to predict their future development. The thesis contains a theoretical and a practical part. The theoretical part consists of three chapters and the last two chapters are practical. In the first chapter, I attempt to describe the financial market and provide a theoretical definition of supervision. Next, I focus on regulation, supervisors and supervised entities. Finally, I also deal with the purpose and aims of financial supervision. A well-defined terminology is crucial to any study involving financial market supervision. In the second chapter, I discuss three basic models of financial market supervision I recognize in the European Union member states. In the third chapter, I focus on the role of the financial market supervisors, their responsibilities and independence. In the fourth chapter, I describe the structure of financial markets in each member state of the European Union from 2001 to 2015. Furthermore, the purpose of this chapter is to collect data for the next chapter. In the fifth chapter, I analyze and compare financial market supervision models of the European...
60

Modelagem Bayesiana dos tempos entre extrapolações do número de internações hospitalares: associação entre queimadas de cana-de-açúcar e doenças respiratórias / Bayesian modelling of the times between peaks of hospital admissions: association between sugar cane plantation burning and respiratory diseases

Sicchieri, Mayara Piani Luna da Silva 19 December 2012 (has links)
As doenças respiratórias e a poluição do ar são temas de muitos trabalhos científicos, porém a relação entre doenças respiratórias e queimadas de cana-de-açúcar ainda é pouco estudada. A queima da palha da cana-de-açúcar é uma prática comum em grande parte do Estado de São Paulo, com especial destaque para os dados da região de Ribeirão Preto. Os focos de queimadas são detectados por satélites do CPTEC/INPE (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais) e neste trabalho consideramos o tempo entre dias de extrapolação do número de internações diárias. Neste trabalho introduzimos diferentes modelos estatísticos para analisar dados de focos de queimadas e suas relações com as internações por doenças respiratórias. Propomos novos modelos para analisar estes dados, na presença ou não da covariável, que representa o número de queimadas. Sob o enfoque Bayesiano, usando os diferentes modelos propostos, encontramos os sumários a posteriori de interesse utilizando métodos de simulação de Monte Carlo em Cadeias de Markov. Também usamos técnicas Bayesianas para discriminar os diferentes modelos. Para os dados da região de Ribeirão Preto, encontramos modelos que levam à obtenção das inferências a posteriori com grande precisão e vericamos que a presença da covariável nos traz um grande ganho na qualidade dos dados ajustados. Os resultados a posteriori nos sugerem evidências de uma relação entre as queimadas e o tempo entre as extrapolações do número de internações, ou seja, de que quando observamos um maior número de queimadas anteriores à extrapolação, também observamos que o tempo entre as extrapolações é menor. / Relations between respiratory diseases and air pollution has been the goals of many scientic works, but the relation between respiratory diseases and sugar cane burning still is not well studied in the literature. Pre-harvest burning of sugarcane elds used primarily to get rid of the dried leaves is common in most of São Paulo state, Southeast Brazil, especially in the Ribeirão Preto region. The locals of pre-harvest sugar cane burning are detected by surveillance satellites of the CPTEC/INPE (Center of Climate Prediction of the Space Research National Institute). In this work, we consider as our data of interest, the time in days, between peaks numbers of hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases. Dierent statistical models are assumed to analyze the data of pre-harvest burning of sugar cane elds and their relations with hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases. These new models are considered to analyze data sets in presence or not of covariates, representing the numbers of pre-harvest burning of sugar cane elds. Under a Bayesian approach, we get the posterior summaries of interest using MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods. We also use dierent existing Bayesian discrimination methods to choose the best model. In our case, considering the data of Ribeirão Preto region, we observed that the models in presence of covariates give accurate inferences and good t for the data. We concluded that there is evidence of a relationship between respiratory diseases and sugar cane burning, that is, larger numbers of pre-harvest sugar cane burning, implies in larger numbers of hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases. In this case, we also observe small times (days) between extra numbers of hospitalizations.

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