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The aim of this study was to determine whether the South African household sector finds itself in a net lending or net borrowing situation and to analyse the situation. Research was done against the background of the 1993 System of National Accounts (1993 SNA). As suggested by the 1993 SNA, the net lending situation of the South African household sector was calculated in the capital account of the household sector. It became clear that the South African household sector’s saving is in excess of its capital formation, although both components indicated a slight declining trend over the past almost thirty years. Current economic literature was used in focusing on household sector saving and capital formation definitions, categories, motivations and determinants. International situations with regards to saving and capital formation were also compared with that of South Africa, putting the South African situation into perspective. An econometric analysis of net household saving in South Africa for the period 1991 to 2002 indicated five factors that significantly influenced household sector saving over the period. The five factors comprise the income from property, the twelve-month fixed deposit rate, current taxes on income and wealth, compensation of employees and total private consumption expenditure. Making use of further data sets, it became clear that the South African government sector uses the household sector’s excess saving to finance increased current expenditure and does not channel these excess funds towards increased capital formation that would be beneficial for long-term economic growth. This study therefore suggested that the South African household sector should be encouraged to act entrepreneurial, which will lead to increased levels of capital formation, that will in turn contribute to long-term growth, and that can be financed by the current excess saving levels of the household sector. Increased capital formation will lead to increases in productivity and income. This will then enable the household sector to raise its level of saving, that again can be used to finance increased levels of capital formation. The five factors that tested significantly influencing household sector saving in South Africa, were linked to possible policy as well as other initiatives aimed at encouraging household sector saving and capital formation in South Africa. This study concluded by briefly discussing three initiatives currently encouraging and promoting the importance of saving in South Africa. / Prof. A.E. Loots

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2007. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: is a common misconception that marketing is all about advertising and other promotional activities. These activities are only part of the marketing process which is in fact about identifying the wants and needs of certain customers and satisfying them better than the competition. However, it must also be borne in mind that these needs and wants change over time as customers change positions in the customer lifecycle. The customer lifecycle of a Woolworths Financial Services personal loan customer is not unlike the generic customer lifecycle of acquisition, development and retention and as such aligns with the principles associated with this theory – acquire, develop and retain as many customers as possible at the lowest cost. The current marketing practices of Woolworths Financial Services are not targeted, focusing on the entire base of prospective customers without any differentiation between those who would most likely respond and those who would not. These practices, however, have provided the opportunity to gain valuable information about the characteristics of those who do respond and those who do not. The use of data mining and regression analysis models (developed on this data) can provide the ability to effectively predict the response curve – ranking and assigning probabilities based on customer behaviour. That being said, these probabilities are of little use if they are not used to optimise the structure of marketing campaigns by determining where to differentiate an offer or not. It is here that mathematical science provides a solution through the optimisation process – the process of computing the mix of variables that provides the best result – in this case the highest number of customers acquired, developed and retained within the constraints of a defined marketing budget. Finally, the result of this process culminates in an increase in shareholder value which would not have been achieved through existing marketing products. The risk associated with implementing this process is negligible, based on empirical evidence regarding the impact of differentiated offers on response rates and as such must be implemented wherever possible. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is ‘n algemene wanopvatting dat bemarking net oor advertensie en ander reklame aktiwitiete gaan. Hierdie aktiwiteite is slegs ‘n deel van die bemarkingsproses wat eintlik gaan oor die identifisering van die behoeftes van sekere kliënte en om hulle beter as die opposisie te kan bedien. Dit moet egter in gedagte gehou word dat die behoeftes van kliente oor tyd verander as hulle posisies skuif in die kliëntelewenssiklus. Die kliëntelewenssiklus van ‘n Woolworths Finansiële Dienste persoonlikeleningskliënt is nie anders as die gemiddelde kliëntelewensiklus van verkryging, ontwikkeling en retensie nie, en vergelyk dus met die beginsels wat met hierdie teorie geassosieer word – verkry, ontwikkel en behou so veel as moontlik kliënte teen die laagste koste. Die huidige bemarkingsprosesse van Woolworths Finansiële Dienste is nie beperk nie en fokus op die algehele moontlike kliëntebasis sonder om te onderskei tussen dié wat heel moontlik sal reageer en dié wat nie sal nie. Hierdie praktyk het egter die geleentheid geskep om waardevolle inligting te bekom oor dié wat reageer en dié wat nie reageer nie. Die gebruik van dataontleding en regressie analise modelle (ontwikkel op hierdie data) kan die vermoë skep om effektief die reaksiekurwe te voorspel – rangskikking en aanwysing van waarskynlikhede gebaseer op kliëntegedrag. Gegewe dié afleiding, is hierdie waarskynlikhede van geringe belang as dit nie aangewend word om die struktuur van die bemarkingsveldtog te optimeer deur te bepaal of ‘n aanbieding gewysig moet word of nie. Dit is hier waar wiskundige metodes ‘n oplossing bied deur die optimeringsproses – in hierdie geval die meeste kliënte wat verkry, ontwikkel en behou kan word binne die beperkinge van ‘n geïdentifiseerde bemarkingsbegroting. Ten slotte, die resultaat van hierdie proses lei tot ‘n toename in aandeelhouerwaarde wat nie moontlik sou wees deur bestaande bemarkingsprodukte nie. Die risiko met die implementering van hierdie proses is weglaatbaar klein, gebaseer op die empiriese bewyse aangaande die impak van gedifferensieerde aanbiedings op reaksiekoerse en moet dus geïmplementeer word waar moontlik.

Submitted by Cristiane Oliveira (cristiane.oliveira@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T15:27:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100245.pdf: 1185208 bytes, checksum: 1c92dd32cf10e3a490cb68ccd33a95ab (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão(vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T16:42:42Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100245.pdf: 1185208 bytes, checksum: 1c92dd32cf10e3a490cb68ccd33a95ab (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão(vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T16:57:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100245.pdf: 1185208 bytes, checksum: 1c92dd32cf10e3a490cb68ccd33a95ab (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-06-03T17:04:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100245.pdf: 1185208 bytes, checksum: 1c92dd32cf10e3a490cb68ccd33a95ab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-12-17 / This paper consists of a study on interest rates sensitivity and adverse selection through personal loans offers in credit cards considering two different samples conducted by a major Brazilian financial institution. Each one of the public was randomly divided into subgroups that received identical personal loan offers, changing the interest rate only. We analyzed the response rate for each subgroup as well as some risk characteristics for all customers within one year after the loan offer. For both audiences was found that customers who accepted the loan had a higher credit risk in comparison to those ones who did not hire. For the higher income public, interest rate has significantly contributed to both the acceptance of the loan and risk level of customers. Lower interest rates offers converted a greater number of customers into loans and customers who accept offers with lower interest rate showed to have a lower risk level than those who contracted the loan with higher interest rates. For lower income public, interest rate was found to be insensitive both in the acceptance rate of the loan and customers risk level, i.e. customers did not take into account the interest rate when analyzing response rates (the response rate was the same for different interest rates) and no differentiation of risk level, unlike what happened with higher income public. / O trabalho consiste em um estudo sobre sensibilidade a juros e seleção adversa por meio de ofertas de empréstimo pessoal atrelado ao cartão de crédito para dois públicos de rendas diferentes realizado por uma grande instituição financeira brasileira. Cada um dos públicos foi dividido aleatoriamente em subgrupos que receberam ofertas de empréstimo pessoal idênticas, alterando-se apenas a taxa de juros. Foi analisada a taxa de resposta para cada subgrupo, assim como as características de todos os clientes até um ano após a oferta do empréstimo. Para os dois públicos foi constatado que clientes que aceitam o empréstimo possuem maior risco de crédito em comparação com os clientes que não contratam o mesmo. Para o público de renda mais alta, a taxa de juros mostrou ser fator importante tanto na aceitação do empréstimo quanto no nível de risco dos clientes. Taxas de juros mais baixas converteram uma maior quantidade de clientes em contratos de empréstimo, sendo que estes possuíam menor risco de crédito do que aqueles que contratam o empréstimo com taxas mais altas. Para o público de renda mais baixa, a taxa de juros mostrou ser insensível tanto na taxa de aceitação do empréstimo quanto no nível de risco dos clientes, ou seja, clientes não levaram em consideração a taxa de juros quando analisamos taxas de respostas (o nível de aceitação foi o mesmo para taxas de juros diferentes) e não houve diferenciação de nível de risco para as taxas de juros ofertadas, ao contrário do que aconteceu com o público de renda mais alta.

Submitted by marcos ito (marcos_ito@yahoo.com.br) on 2012-01-20T18:55:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 20120120 - MPA Marcos Kenji Ito.pdf: 931031 bytes, checksum: e54504c14f74f4f4d321823f6255eda4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2012-01-20T18:58:07Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 20120120 - MPA Marcos Kenji Ito.pdf: 931031 bytes, checksum: e54504c14f74f4f4d321823f6255eda4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-01-20T19:00:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 20120120 - MPA Marcos Kenji Ito.pdf: 931031 bytes, checksum: e54504c14f74f4f4d321823f6255eda4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-12-20 / This research aims to identify a statistical model of propensity to revolve through store credit card, in order to maximize the credit appliance and optimize marketing efforts. The descriptive study aims to generate insights for understanding the expansion of consumer credit, in a context of lack of financing options and limitation in distribution channel. There will be a quantitative approach in the customer data base of a financial institution and through the study of socio demographic and transactional it pretends to establish a mathematical model followed by a validation of their predictive ability. / Esta pesquisa tem o objetivo de identificar as variáveis e sua influência na propensão à aquisição de crédito pessoal, propondo um modelo estatístico de propensão ao financiamento por cartões de crédito híbridos para maximização de contratação de crédito e otimização dos esforços de marketing. O estudo descritivo pode gerar insights para a compreensão da expansão do crédito ao consumo, sobretudo num contexto de escassez de opções de financiamento e limitação no canal de distribuição. Foram usados dados de uma base de clientes de uma instituição financeira com variáveis sócio demográficas e transacionai, e o modelo matemático foi seguido da validação de sua capacidade preditiva.