<p dir="ltr">Supersonic transport has been an active field of aviation research since the 1950s, and its commercialization culminated in the Anglo-French airliner, the Concorde. Due to unsustainable operation costs and the sonic booms emanating along the path, supersonic transports have retreated from the forefront of research since the Concorde’s decommission. The annoyance caused by sonic booms further prompted the FAA to prohibit all overland civil flights over Mach 1. However, recent resurgence in SST projects such as NASA’s QueSST project and its experimental aircraft X-59 is set to employ a boom-minimization configuration and to re-evaluate the prospects of overland supersonic flights. In light of this advancement, a trajectory optimization framework that minimizes perceived boom along the path, tailored to supersonic in-land flights, is developed. An optimal control problem combining a sonic boom propagation model, the population distribution of the continental U.S., and a noise measure based on Perceived Level decibels is formulated and solved numerically via GPOPS-II. Two trajectories over the continental U.S. based on this framework are illustrated and aim to provide insights into future supersonic transport design, regulations, as well as air-traffic management.</p>

Dans un contexte industriel où le partenariat d’entreprises devient une réponse stratégique aux exigences accrues du marché, le contrat d’approvisionnement apparaît progressivement comme un élément-clé de la gestion d’une chaîne logistique. La contribution de cette thèse comporte deux volets. Au plan méthodologique, il s’agit de fournir à l’entreprise un cadre d’analyse support à la contractualisation, permettant de relier clause, risque et performance en vue de définir, par une démarche instrumentée, les clauses pertinentes en adéquation avec le contexte industriel et la relation d’approvisionnement. Au plan des outils, un modèle de planification avec prise en compte des contraintes contractuelles et une plateforme de simulation ont été développés. Deux types de contrats d’approvisionnement (contrat d’engagement sur des quantités par période et contrat d’engagement sur des quantités par horizon) ont été simulés, mettant en évidence l’impact de ces derniers sur la performance locale (vue partenaire) et globale (vue de la chaîne logistique). / In high competitive industrial context where the collaborative partnership becomes a strategic answer to face the increased market requirements, supply contract gradually appears to be a key element in supply chain management. The contribution of this thesis is twofold. In one hand, methodological approach aims at providing deciders with contracting framework support that links clause, risk and performance in order to define, by instrumented approach, the relevant clauses to commit in adequacy with industrial context and supplying relationship. In the other hand, planning model including contractual constraints and simulation platform are developed. Two types of supply contracts (commitments on quantities per period and commitments on quantities per horizon) are simulated, highlighting the impact of these one on local performance (partner view) and global performance (supply chain view)

This diploma thesis focuses on identifying the most suitable model of care for em-ployees on parental leave which would bring benefits both to the company and towards employees in European countris. Thesis is built on research within six member countries, Czech Republic, Germany, Austria, Sweden, Finland and Netherlands, and companies on those markets. The main aim is to find a recommendation for employee's care which is based on Scope planning model, along with the cost's analyses of the model. As a recommendation to ease the work-life balance while employee is on parental leave, company can establish its own childcare centre within the company's premises and offer the place for children to its employees. If the situation of such an establishment is not manageable for the company, the model of financial contribution to the private childcare centres can be implemented. In Czech Republic, where the situation is least developed, the most suitable model would be to allow flexible work time schedules become regular, along with the financial contribution to private childcare. Using the case study the benefits were proven. The company would lower its cost for employee and at the same time for stand-in employees the difficult employed people could be hired. The model is of course favourable for the employee on parental leave as well as he/she can come to work earlier and help the family budget. All of the models should be based on internal company's analyses and then customized to company's preferences and conditions to serve the purpose of better care of employees on parental leave. At the same time, national governments should be helpful in the process and lead the progress. The perfect example is the Nordic states where within the labour legislative the work-life balance issues are covered in order to embrace the current trend.

Health is related to the growth of life quality and longevity, helping people to have equilibrium in all personal life areas. In this context, the actual study consists in to develop a Personal Health Strategic Planning Model, to establish or to improve individual health. The study was based on the Strategic Planning and the Planning Model of Estrada (2006); Personal Strategic Planning and Models of Personal Strategic Planning, which tells about the changeable variables of Health. The adopted work methodology was the qualitative research, with exploratory objective and exploratory character. The procedure design adopted for to collect data, from the technical point of view, was the biographic research. The theoretical analysis let to establish the main elements for the composition of the Personal Health Strategic Planning Model purposed. To improve the understanding of this study, the purposed model is composed on two types: biological and psychosocial. The first one is composed by three elements: clinical control, nutrition and fitness, and the second one is composed by the resilient concept (stress adaptive answer), which is divided on three types: academic, emotional and social. It was possible to see that the Personal Health Planning can contribute for the Health promotion and the sickness prevention, because it systematizes the elements of Health and its scientific technical recommendations, guiding people to have healthy habits. / A saúde está relacionada ao aumento da qualidade de vida e longevidade, contribuindo para que o indivíduo tenha equilíbrio em todas as áreas da sua vida pessoal. Neste contexto, o presente estudo consiste em desenvolver um Modelo de Planejamento Estratégico Pessoal da Saúde, para manter ou melhorar a saúde individual. O estudo tomou como base o Planejamento Estratégico e o Modelo de Planejamento Estratégico de Estrada (2006); Planejamento Estratégico Pessoal e Modelos de Planejamento Estratégico Pessoal, que mencionam os aspectos determinantes modificáveis da saúde. A metodologia constituiu-se de pesquisa de natureza qualitativa, com objetivo e caráter exploratório. O delineamento dos procedimentos, para a coleta de dados, do ponto de vista técnico, foi a pesquisa bibliográfica. A análise da fundamentação teórica permitiu estabelecer os elementos essenciais para a composição do Modelo de Planejamento Estratégico Pessoal da Saúde proposto. Para facilitar a compreensão, o modelo proposto foi dividido em duas categorias: biológica e psicossocial. A primeira composta por três elementos: controle clínico, nutrição e condicionamento físico, e a segunda envolvendo o conceito de resiliência (resposta adaptativa ao estresse), dividindose em três tipos: acadêmica, emocional e social. Percebeu-se que o Modelo de Planejamento Estratégico Pessoal da Saúde proposto, pode contribuir para promoção da saúde e prevenção de doenças, pois sistematiza os elementos da saúde e as suas respectivas recomendações técnico científicas, orientando as pessoas à prática de hábitos saudáveis.

En 2010, ERDF (Electricité Réseau Distribution France) a entamé la mise en place du projet « Linky » dont l'objectif est d'installer 35 millions de compteurs intelligents en France. Ces compteurs permettront de collecter les données de consommation en « temps réel », avec lesquelles des modèles de charge plus précis pourront être envisagés. Dans ce contexte, cette thèse définit deux objectifs: la définition de modèles prédictifs de charge pour la conduite et la conception de modèles d'estimation de charge pour la planification. En ce qui concerne la conduite, nous avons développés deux modèles. Le premier exploite le formalisme mathématique des séries chronologiques ; le second est basé sur un réseau de neurones. Les deux modèles cherchent à prévoir la charge des jours « J+1 » et « J+2 » à partir des informations collectées jusqu'au jour « J ». Le modèle « série chronologique » repose sur les propriétés temporelles des courbes de charge. Ainsi on découpe la courbe de charge en trois parties : la tendance, la périodicité et le résidu. Les premiers deux sont déterministes et indépendamment développés en deux modèles : le modèle de tendance et le modèle de cyclicité. La somme de la prévision de ces deux modèles est la prévision finale. Le résidu quant à lui capture les phénomènes aléatoires que présente la courbe de charge. Le modèle de prédiction ainsi développé s'aide de nombreux outils statistiques (e.g., test de stationnarité, test ANOVA, analyse spectrale, entres autres) pour garantir son bon fonctionnement. Enfin, modèle « série chronologique » prend en compte plusieurs facteurs qui expliquent la variation dans la courbe de consommation tels que la température, les cyclicités, le temps, et le type du jour, etc. En ce qui concerne le modèle à base de réseaux de neurones, nous nous focalisons sur les stratégies de sélection de la structure pour un modèle optimal. Les choix des entrées et du nombre de neurones cachés sont effectués à travers les méthodes dites de «régression orthogonale » et de « leave-one-out-virtuel ». Les résultats montrent que la procédure proposée permet de choisir une structure de réseau de neurones qui garantisse une bonne précision de prédiction. En ce qui concerne la planification, un modèle non paramétrique est proposé et comparé avec le modèle actuel « BAGHEERA » d'EDF. Avec l'ouverture du marché d'électricité, la relation entre les fournisseurs, les clients et les distributeurs devient flexible. Les informations qualitatives d'un client particulier telles que sa puissance souscrite, son code d'activité, ses tarifs etc. sont de moins en moins disponibles. L'évolution du modèle BAGHEERA qui dépend ces informations pour classer les clients dans différentes catégories est devenue indispensable. Le modèle non paramétrique est un modèle individuel centré sur le relevé des compteurs. Trois variables de régression non paramétriques : Nadaraya Watson, Local Linear et Local Linear adapted ont été analysées et comparées. Les scénarios de validation montrent que le modèle non paramétrique est plus précis que le modèle « BAGHEERA ». Ces nouveaux modèles ont été conçus et validés sur de vraies données collectées sur le territoire français. / From 2010, ERDF (French DSO) started the “Linky” project. The project aims at installing 35 millions smart meters in France. These smart meters will collect individual client's consumption data in real time and transfer these data to the data center automatically in a certain frequency. These detailed consumption information provided by the smart metering system enables the designs of more accurate load models. On this purpose, two distinctive objectives are defined in this dissertation: the forecasting load models for the operation need and the estimation load models for the planning need. For the operation need, two models are developed, respectively relying on the “time series” and the “neural network” principals. They are both for the objective of predicting the loads in “D+1” and “D+2” days based on the historical information till “D” day. The “time series” model divides the load curve into three components: the trend, the cyclic, and the residual. The first two parts are deterministic, from which two models named the trend model and the cyclic model are made. The sum of the prevision of these two models is the final prediction result. For a better precision, numerous statistical tools are also integrated such that the stationary test, the smoothed periodogram, the ANOVA test and the gliding window estimation, etc. The time series model can extract information from the influence factors such as the time, the temperature, the periodicities and the day type, etc. Being the most popular non linear model and the universal approximator, the neural network load forecasting model is also studied in this dissertation. We focus on the strategy of the structure selection. The work is in collaboration with Prof. Dreyfus (SIGMA lab), a well known expert in the machine learning field. Input selection and model selection are performed by the “orthogonal forward regression” and the “virtual-leave-one-out” algorithms. Results show that the proposed procedure is efficient and guarantees the chosen model a good accuracy on the load forecasting. For the planning, a nonparametric model is designed and compared with the actual model “BAGHEERA” of the French electricity company EDF. With the opening of the electricity market, the relationship among the regulators, suppliers and clients is changing. The qualitative information about a particular client such as his subscribed power, his activity code and his electricity tariffs becomes less and less available. The evolution from the BAGHEERA model to a data-driven model is unavoidable, since the BAGHEERA model depends on these information to attribute every client in the French territory into a pre-defined category. The proposed nonparametric model is individualized and can deal with both temperature sensitive (possessing an electrical heater) and temperature insensitive clients. Three nonparametric regressors are proposed: the Nadaraya Watson, the local linear, and the local linear adapted. The validation studies show that the nonparametric model has a better estimation precision than the BAGHEERA model. These novel models are designed and validated by the real measurements collected in the French distribution network.

En este trabajo se ha realizado la investigación de la gestión de la cadena de abastecimiento en la industria de la construcción bajo el enfoque de la integración de participantes y de cómo lograrlo mediante la aplicación de un modelo de gestión. La cadena de abastecimiento de la industria de la construcción está llena de problemas y desperdicios en comparación con la industria manufacturera; una de las causas principales es la fragmentación existente esto se evidencia en la región Arequipa en proyectos culminados fuera del plazo programado e incremento de costos. La investigación pretende conocer la relación de la integración de la cadena de suministro con la planificación, logística, industrialización y las alianzas. El resultado del trabajo de investigación es el Modelo de Gestión para la Integración de la Cadena de Abastecimiento el cual se basa en la planificación, logística, industrialización y alianzas; se ha realizado la aplicación de este modelo en el proyecto de construcción de la planta de cemento, encontrando problemas en estas cuatro fases, que han generado incremento de plazos de ejecución y de presupuesto. Para concluir la cadena de abastecimiento en la industria de la construcción está fragmentada principalmente al tipo de contratación que propone el cliente con los participantes como el contratista principal, ingeniería y supervisión, los que realiza incluso en diferentes etapas propiciando en la cadena de abastecimiento incrementos en el plazo de ejecución y costos de ejecución que finalmente son asumidos por el cliente. / In this work, research on supply chain management in the construction industry has been carried out with the focus on the integration of participants and on how to achieve this through the application of a management model. The supply chain of the construction industry is full of problems and waste compared to the manufacturing industry; One of the main causes is the existing fragmentation. This is evidenced in the Arequipa region in projects completed outside the programmed term and increased costs. The research aims to find out the relationship of supply chain integration with planning, logistics, industrialization and alliances. The result of the research work is the Management Model for the Integration of the Supply Chain which is based on planning, logistics, industrialization and alliances; The application of this model has been carried out in the construction project of the cement plant, finding problems in these four phases, which have generated an increase in execution times and budget. To conclude the supply chain in the construction industry, it is mainly fragmented to the type of contracting that the client proposes with the participants as the main contractor, engineering and supervision, which is carried out even at different stages, promoting in the supply chain increases in the execution period and execution costs that are finally assumed by the client. / Trabajo de investigación

El sobrestock de productos en almacén para las empresas retail es una de las problemáticas más comunes que enfrentan. En el sector, se implementan sistemas de control de inventario, apoyados por pronósticos de demanda, de tal forma de poder cumplir con la demanda de los clientes sin perjudicar a la empresa. El estudio y la solución propuesta en el presente artículo nacen de la necesidad de alinear la oferta con la demanda de una retail de productos de computación, de tal forma de reducir el sobrestock. En esta investigación, se utiliza el modelo de Promedio Móvil Ponderado para estimar la demanda a largo plazo y se ajusta mensualmente el pronóstico al incorporar información del sector y ventas recientes. Esto permite determinar el stock de seguridad requerido y el punto de reorden a través del Modelo Q. Mediante el indicador de días de suministro, se evidencia la mejora del inventario tras implementar el modelo de solución, a través de la simulación en un software especializado, sin perjudicar el nivel de servicio. Se evidencia en el resultado de la simulación a través de la mejora de los días de suministro en 50%. Los resultados evidencian que la disminución del nivel de inventario, para reducir el sobrestock de productos, no necesariamente incrementa las ventas perdidas y perjudica el nivel de servicio. / The overstock of products in warehouse for retail companies is one of the most common problems they face. In the sector, inventory control systems are supported by demand forecasts, in such a way as to be able to meet customer demand without harming financially the organization. The solution proposed, in this article, is created from the need to align the supply with the demand of a retail store, which top sales items are laptops and computers, in such a way to reduce overstock. In this research, the Weighted Moving Average model is used to estimate long-term demand and the forecast is adjusted monthly by incorporating information from the sector and recent sales. This makes it possible to determine the required safety stock and the reorder point through the Q Model. Through the supply days indicator, the inventory improvement is evidenced after implementing the solution model, through simulation in specialized software, without compromising the level of service. It is evidenced in the simulation result through the improvement of supply days by 50%. The results show that reducing the level of inventory, to reduce the overstock of products, does not necessarily increase lost sales and harm the level of service. / Trabajo de investigación

Having a newborn can be a big change for families, especially for first-time parents. At hospital discharge, parents are often provided with a lot of information, which can be difficult to retain. Due to shortened postnatal lengths of stay, nurses typically have less time to educate parents, which often results in families feeling overwhelmed. After hospital discharge, it is recommended for families to see a health care provider (i.e., physician, nurse practitioner, or registered midwife) within 72 hours for a follow-up appointment. This follow-up appointment is meant to assess both the mother and newborn to ensure they are both in good health and to provide any needed support. Unfortunately, completing the appointment within this timeframe may not be possible for every family or they may not be aware of its importance. Depending on the family’s model of care, completing the follow-up appointment within 72 hours after hospital discharge can be challenging. Families that have a physician as their health care provider may experience delays in scheduling the follow-up appointment. This can be due to the physician’s lack of availability, as there is a physician shortage in most communities. Furthermore, some families do not have access to a health care provider and, therefore, do not see a care provider after hospital discharge. Completing the follow-up appointment later than when it is recommended, or not at all, can result in negative health consequences for the mother and newborn and can also increase re-admission hospital rates and related costs (Cargill et al., 2007). At the moment, postnatal lengths of stay are shortening but the service delivery has not changed to accommodate this trend (Lemyre et al., 2018). This means that the services typically provided to families in the hospital now need to be provided in the community. The follow-up appointment after hospital discharge is an opportunity to provide these services; however, timely access to a health care provider, specifically a physician, can be challenging. Thus, this thesis explores the development of a general design methodology for a postpartum nurse practitioner-led clinic. The aim of the clinic is to provide timely access to any family that needs to complete the necessary postpartum services after hospital discharge within a community. An analytical model was developed to explore the characteristics of a postpartum nurse practitioner-led clinic and how it would operate (i.e., what services would be offered, the amount of time needed for these services, what is needed to offer these services, etc.). The model conducts a simulation of the appointment scheduling process based on the input values entered into it and evaluates a number of performance metrics (e.g., number of diversions, patient wait times, resource idle time, clinic overtime, number of appointments provided within 72 hours and number of appointments provided beyond 72 hours). The findings from the model can support the potential implementation of a postpartum nurse practitioner-led clinic in any community. Implementing such clinics could increase awareness, further educate parents and increase access to postpartum services.

В работе представлен обзор современных методов и алгоритмов машинного обучения и опыта их практического применения в банковской сфере. Разработана методика реализации проекта по совершенствованию системы планирования комиссионного дохода клиентского сегмента коммерческого банка. Реализована модель планирования комиссионного дохода клиентского сегмента банка на основе методов машинного обучения. / The paper provides an overview of modern methods and algorithms of machine learning and the experience of their practical application in the banking sector. A methodology has been developed for the implementation of a project to improve the system of planning commission income for the client segment of a commercial bank. A model for planning commission income of the bank's client segment based on machine learning methods has been implemented.

[pt] O objetivo central da dissertação é avaliar o Processo de Planejamento em desenvolvimento no Sistema PETROBRAS, focalizando sua evolução e sistematização. Com vistas à obtenção desse objetivo, abordam-se, primeiramente, várias metodologias de planejamento com a finalidade de compor o referencial teórico necessário à elaboração de critérios de avaliação do Processo adotado pela Empresa. Em seguida, são apresentados os resultados de uma pesquisa realizada na Companhia com o intuito de analisar a evolução do Planejamento no nível estratégico, as relações políticas inerentes a esse processo, os atores nele envolvidos e suas responsabilidades. Finalmente, são apresentadas propostas, baseadas na teoria discutida, ajustadas à realidade observada, visando contornar desvios detectados no Processo de Planejamento da Empresa. / [en] The objective of this dissertation is to evaluate the planning model developed at PETROBRAS, focusing its evolution and structure. With this aim, some planning methodologies are described, in order to create a theoretical framework that can provide basic criteria to evaluate the planning process adopted by the Company. Next, the results of a case study carried out at this Company are presented,describing the evolution of the Strategic Planning process, the power relations and the actors involved in this process and their responsibilities. Finally, some proposals,based on the theory discussed and appropriate to the observed reality are presented, aiming at improving the Planning Process.