L'abandon (ou terminaison) des programmes d'armement est un phénomène en progression aux Etats-Unis. Au cours des vingt dernières années, la première puissance mondiale a annulé presque deux fois plus de systèmes que durant la période 1970-1989, et au regard de la crise économique qui secoue actuellement le pays la tendance ne semble pas près de s'inverser. Mais, en dépit de son actualité, la terminaison demeure un sujet peu étudié en science politique. En faisant appel à l'analyse cognitive des politiques publiques, cette thèse propose d'y apporter des éléments de réponse. Elle repose pour cela sur l'examen de trois programmes d'armement dont le développement ou la production furent arrêtés entre 1991 et 2009 : l'avion d'attaque A-12 Avenger II, l'hélicoptère RAH-66 Comanche et le chasseur F-22 Raptor. Les résultats de l'étude montrent que depuis les années 90, les décideurs américains sont bien moins réfractaires à l'idée de terminer les programmes qu'ils estiment trop chers ou inutiles. Cette tendance lourde dans la politique d'armement a pour origine le changement de paradigme provoqué par la fin de la Guerre froide. Avec l'obsolescence de la notion de course aux armements, l’impératif de modernisation qui animait autrefois l’acquisition militaire américaine s’est assoupli pour laisser place à une représentation plus pragmatique des enjeux d’équipement. / Weapons programs cancellation (or termination) is a rising phenomenon in the U.S. Over the past twenty years, the world's greatest power has been cancelling nearly twice as much major systems as during the 1970-1989 period, and in view of the economic crisis that now shakes the country, this trend is unlikely to reverse. However, despite its relevance in the current context, little research has been done so far on policy termination. Using a cognitive approach, this thesis aims to provide answers on this issue. Three major weapons programs, whose development or production were stopped between 1991 and 2009, were selected as case studies : the A-12 Avenger II attack aircraft, the RAH-66 Comanche helicopter, and the F-22 Raptor fighter aircraft. Results of this study showed that, since the 90's, U.S. decision-makers became far less reluctant to cancel the weapons programs they consider irrelevant or too costly. This major trend in procurement has its origin in the deep normative change that occurred with the end of the Cold War. With the obsolescence of the arms race, the follow-on imperative that previously drove U.S. weapons policy diminished, giving way to a more pragmatic vision of acquisition matters.

本研究以Kirkpatrick等人提出的「公共財的終結過程模式」，結合Geva-May的「終結策略」為研究架構，分析國光石化彰化開發案的停建過程。透過文獻分析和人物訪談，逐步找出停建過程中，遭遇到哪些抗拒因素而妨礙停建的進行，決策者又運用什麼策略來化解抗拒因素以達到停建目的。停建原因部分，興建理由先受到部分人士質疑，預期效益存在性降低，設廠的價值改變了，在少數環保團體的強力運作下，彰化案的公共能見度提高了，吸引更多有力人士加入終結聯盟，再透過媒體持續報導提高能見度，又再度強化終結聯盟和社會主流意識形態，形成巨大民意壓力，構成執政黨政治危機，迫使決策者改變政策方向為停建，改以其他變化的政策計畫滿足原先希望達成的政策目的。本案並未動工興建，並無明顯因素抵擋終結發生，但本案是受社會倡議影響而被動終結，政府的心理抗拒比重較大，惟決策者最終採取終結方案，可解釋為目的是解決政治危機，只是此方法多了順應民意的「包裝」，政治誘因的缺乏不再是終結限制，質變後的「政治誘因」反而是馬總統宣布本案停建的推手。馬總統做為決策者，在宣布停建前就放出政策可能改變的風向球，展現誠懇謙卑態度迎合民意，親自召開記者會宣布停建，保證補償措施避免反動，隨後的大城振興方案和國光至大馬投資計畫，都屬於終結策略安排的一環。 / Based on the Kirkpatrick’s model and Geva-May’s theory, the study constructed a new model to analyze the discontinuation of Kuokuang petrochemical project and explain the relationships among the reasons, the constraints and the strategy of policy termination in this case. Some people questioned the expected benefits about Kuokuang petrochemical project in Changhua(彰化), then the media visibility increased under the powerful environmental groups’ operation. More and more people joined the terminal alliance to end the project. The mainstream ideology in society formed a huge pressure to government. President Ma faced the political crisis, so he changed the decision from constructing to discontinuation in the end. Actually, the construction of Kuokuang petrochemical project in Changhua did not begin at all, so there were no obvious constraints to resist discontinuation, except intellectual reluctance and lack of political incentive. Both of them were intellectual factors, because discontinuation was not the result what government wanted to do. Taking discontinuation meant the construction was a failure decision. President Ma, as a decision maker, released the trial balloon about the policy may change before announcing discontinuation. At the press conference, he showed humility and sincere attitude to answer mainstream ideology and convince vested interest groups. The Dacheng(大城) economic power-up plan and Malaysia investment for Kuokuang company were termination strategies what President Ma used in this case.

公共設施的設立雖被視為公共利益的增進，但我國公共設施閒置的現象卻也十分普遍，因而引發許多關注、爭議與批評，使閒置公共設施活化的議題，成為近年行政管理的重要目標。對此，本文的研究目標有二:首先透過政策終結的理論觀點，探討我國閒置公共設施進行活化的決定因素；其次，在確保活化目標的基礎上，更進一步探討活化過程的課責機制，以行政、法律、政治、專業等四種面向進行分析。試圖對未來的活化策略以及課責機制的精進，提供實務上之政策建議。 依據上述目標，本研究以行政院公共工程委員會104年第三季的113個列管案件為分析對象，透過系統性的文獻分析與整理，以及利害關係人的深度訪談進行實證研究。由研究結果可知，法律障礙、經濟成本與心理抗拒等三項因素，是誘發我國閒置公共設施選擇進行全面活化的主要因素；而若從活化執行過程的課責機制面向來看，行政課責與政治課責是亟待改進之處。 最後，依據研究成果，本文提出之研究建議包含：（一）強化機關的政策評估能力：在公共建設計畫的編審作業階段嚴格要求成本效益分析、環境影響評估的執行，以強化計畫與人民需求之間的連結；（二）納入公民參與機制：透過公聽會、座談會的舉行，瞭解人民需求，確保政府決策的公開透明，並強化政府與人民間的信任關係；（三）建立適當的退場機制：針對區位不佳或活化成本過高的列管案件，給予適度的法規鬆綁，以避免閒置公共設施的再次閒置。 / Although public facilities are built to promote public interest, idle public facilities are everywhere in Taiwan. This so-called “mosquito houses” phenomena have gotten public attention to cast doubts on government effectiveness. In response, government activates a new program to reinventing idle public facilities. This research is design to explore the factors through which government implements the reinventing program. Under the guidance of policy termination and accountability theories, this study explores the mechanism of accountability behind the reinventing program in four dimensions, included political accountability, bureaucratic accountability, legal accountability and professional accountability. This research is expected to provide theoretical answers and practical suggestion to enhance the reinventing program as well as the mechanism of accountability behind public facilities construction decisions. This research utilizes government documents to analyze 113 “mosquito house” cases monitored by Public Construction Commission, Executive Yuan as well as literature review and in-depth interviews. The results indicate that, the legal obstacles, economic costs and the psychological reluctance, were the decisive factors to lead to the activation of reinventing program. As for the accountability, it would be urgent to improve the mechanism of administrative accountability and political accountability. Lastly, this study could provide three main practical suggestions as follows: (1) Strengthening the capacity of policy assessment in government, (2) bringing in the citizen participation (3) Building a mechanism of public facility termination.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-01T19:11:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 118008.pdf: 78045 bytes, checksum: dbcc4e12d1314a87973a856b7cac2376 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-06-05 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This paper aims to analyze the termination of public organizations using the Multiple Stream Model proposed by John Kingdon. This descriptive study has the Banco do Estado de Santa Catarina (BESC), Imprensa Oficial de Santa Catarina (IOESC) and Companhia de Distritos Indústriais de Santa Catarina (CODISC) to perform the analysis. These public organizations were terminated in the past 25 years, already inside a context of democracy reestablished nationally, press freedom and political affiliation. The subjects of this qualitative research are decision makers that were directly or indirectly linked to one of these organizations. It was found that the Multiple Stream Model can be seen as an explanation of termination in public organizations. From the analysis of the termination of the public organizations selected for this paper, it was verified the presence of the policy stream, problems stream and political stream that at a given moment in time, at the opening of a window of opportunity, had their paths crossed by the activity of a policy entrepreneur. / Esta dissertação tem como objetivo analisar a extinção de organizações públicas a partir do Modelo de Fluxos Múltiplos proposto por John Kingdon. Esse estudo descritivo tem como objeto de análise o Banco do Estado de Santa Catarina (BESC), a Imprensa Oficial de Santa Catarina (IOESC) e a Companhia de Distritos Indústriais de Santa Catarina (CODISC), organizações públicas extintas nos últimos 25 anos, já dentro de um contexto de democracia restabelecida nacionalmente, liberdade de imprensa e de filiação partidária. Os sujeitos dessa pesquisa qualitativa são tomadores de decisão que estavam direta ou indiretamente ligados a uma dessas organizações. Verificou-se que o Modelo de Fluxos Múltiplos pode ser visto como explicativo de fenômenos de extinção de organizações públicas. A partir da análise da extinção das organizações públicas selecionadas para este estudo, identificou-se a presença do Fluxo de política, do Fluxo de problema e do Fluxo de política ou solução que em determinado momento do tempo, por ocasião da abertura de uma janela de oportunidade, tiveram suas trajetórias cruzadas pela atividade de um empreendedor político.

公共政策是藉由重大公共議題的討論來分析政府活動的一種研究途徑，將公共政策的過程切割成議題設定、政策規劃、政策合法化、政策執行、政策評估及政策終結等階段，雖可以獲致清晰的流程架構，但此一單向的線性思考方式，不但簡化了政策問題解決的複雜性，亦會喪失政策過程的動態本質。再者，公共政策的研究領域日益蓬勃壯大，研究途徑與方法亦漸趨多元發展，理論概念與分析架構的整合自然日趨重要，如此將有助於研究者將研究議題與經驗資料作最佳的組合。是以，本研究採取非線性的政策動態概念，對政策的演變作一有系統性的探索，在融合有關政策變遷的各種觀點後，提出「政策體系」的理論概念，建立「宏觀」的分析架構作為探索政策變遷現象的基礎。 政策體系乃是以政策過程為焦點，所有與政策性質相關的要素，都可視為政策體系的構成要素。首先，政策是在開放的體系中形成、維持、接續與終結，自環境中汲取養分同時受到環境的限制，由此觀之，外在環境因素是政策體系中不可忽略的一環。其次，討論政策體系自然不能遺漏政策本身的因素，政策乃為解決社會問題而生，沒有社會問題的存在，當然就不會有政策制定的需求，另一方面，政策本身的組構方式則是攸關問題的解決與否。再者，在民主體制中，任何的政策形成與改變都必須取得正當性的依據，只有問題的存在並不保證一定會被政府所處理，必須通過政治結構的考驗才可能有政策產出。最後，政策體系是一個互動的體系，政策參與者之間就政策方案的選擇所從事的各種行為與活動，都可能影響最後的政策產出。歸納言之，一個完整的政策體系至少應該包括幾個要素：外在環境的因素、政策本身的特性、結構性因素的作用及政策行動者的互動行為，這些要素的互動作用會導致政策的變遷。 最後，政策是政府選擇目標與工具來解決社會問題的重要活動，它不是在真空中運作，而是不斷與社會進行互動的連續性過程，這也是政策走進歷史之前會出現變遷的原因，本研究雖然提出具有規範意涵的分析政策變遷的理論架構，但是基於「真實個案是檢驗理論效度的最佳途徑」的法則，本研究以民進黨首次執政時期所推動的停建核四政策個案為例，利用文本中所建立的分析架構來詮釋此一政策變遷的過程，並在結論中整合理論與個案的研究發現，就政策體系的各個面向提出幾個有關政策變遷的假設性命題，以供後續研究之參考與檢證，進而促成政策變遷知識的深化。 / Public policy is a research approach to analyze governmental activities by discussing public issues. However, in most articles, the policy process is seen as a logical succession of steps: agenda setting, policy formulation, policy legitimation, policy implementation, policy evaluation, and policy termination. Although this progression of stages provides a clear and useful framework, it often obscures the complexities of public issues. In other words, most policies are not a process of linear development, from agenda setting to policy termination. Policy change is a common phenomenon. In this way, if we want to understand the dynamics of policy, it is helpful to take a nonlinear perspective. Policy change is used by a wide range of authors in public policy and other disciplines, but there is no consensus on what the definition of policy change is. In fact, this question has not been systematically explored until now. Policy change is not simply a label, but is an important part of the policy process. It is worth drawing more attention to this phenomenon. The aim of this study is to construct an analytical framework of policy change. Within this framework, we distinguish between different types of policy change: policy succession and policy termination, firstly. And we can find some cues from policy change, including organization, statutes, budget, personnel, and media. Secondly, we use the concept of policy system to connect with policy change. This concept contains several elements: external environment, policy attributes, institutional factor, and policy networks. These elements interact with each other to produce policy change. We use this framework to analyze policy discontinuity for the fourth nuclear power plant in 2000. Finally, policy is essentially about government. The major activity of government is seen as choosing goals and instruments to solve social problems. Policy does not exist in a vacuum; it is made in a concrete environment. We should see policy as a continuing process of social action and interaction. This is why policy may be changed before it is terminated. Finally, we provide some hypotheses and suggestions for further research at the end of this study.