Master of Arts / Department of English / Katherine Karlin / By the year 2037, climate change has destabilized the world’s ecology, politics, and culture. Hawaii has seceded from the United States, instituting the Cultural Reaffirmation, which champions a sustainable, traditional way of life. Eenie is an astronomer on the Big Island of Hawaii. In order to keep the observatory on Mauna Kea operational, she must appease the newly independent island nation by reenacting a mythical sled race between Poliahu, the Hawaiian snow goddess of Maunakea, and Pele, the fierce goddess of lava, personified by a rival geoscientist from Maunaloa’s volcanic laboratory. Once an Olympic contender in the women’s luge, Eenie has won this race twice before. This year, though, the greenhouse effect has caught up with her; there is no snow on Maunakea. Without it, she cannot prevail, and if she doesn’t, the priests of Hawaii’s Cultural Reaffirmation will pull the telescopes down from their most sacred mountain. Eenie struggles against nature’s increasing wrath, gods, monsters, pigs, and political rivals, though her biggest struggle is within herself. Fire and water must live together takes place in an ecodystopic future, though its story pulls from Hawaiian myth. The story’s projection into the future is based on current events, including the Hawaiian sovereignty movement, climate change science, and technology. An accompanying essay frames the novella through three critical lenses: ecocriticism, eco-politics, and post-colonial hybridity. The essay includes a focused look at the setting of Hawaii as it stands today in terms of environment, politics, and people.

This thesis is dedicated to developing a concept that allows for predicting the magnitude of political instability periods. To that end existing literature is consulted to explore the most appropriate definitions and explanatory models for creating a elaborated approach to political instability. On the basis of this refined concept, that defines political instability as a latent condition rather than an occurrence, hypotheses are devised. These hypotheses are tested by employing a exploratory correlation analysis on a limited sample, which yields results that encourage confidence in the predictive potential of the developed concept. As suggested in the explanatory framework the analysis finds that the magnitude of conflict, resulting from political instability, is positively correlated with social fragmentation and individual deprivation, while being negatively correlated to military professionalism. A fourth explanatory component - viable alternatives to conflict - was not found to have any effect.

What are the main macroeconomic factors that help understand economic growth in Brazil since 1870? Are institutions (and changes in institutions) a deep cause of economic growth in Brazil? Are these effects fundamentally and systematically different? Does the intensity and the direction (the sign) of these effects vary over time, in general and, in particular, do they vary with respect to short- versus long-run considerations? This thesis tries to answer these questions focusing on within country over long periods of time. It uses the power-ARCH (PARCH) econometric framework with annual time series from 1870 to 2003. The results suggest that financial development (domestic and international) exhibit the most robust first-order effects on growth and its volatility. Political instability, trade openness and public deficit play important yet secondary roles since the effects of the first two do not extent to the long-run (that is, they are restricted to the short-run) and those off the latter are sensitive to the measures of the variables used in our analysis.

<p>A majority of formal theoretic research in political science treats political parties as unitary actors, and endows them with decision-making powers not unlike those of strategic individuals. This is true both of most research in the spatial-theoretic tradition, as well as most game theoretic research in the field of comparative political-economy. In contrast, my dissertation examines strategic equilibria which arise when competition takes place simultaneously within parties over organizational control and between parties over political office. I first distinguish between three intra-organizational elements: a party's parliamentary group, its activist cadre, and its executive leaders. Chapters 2-4 develop a set of foundational game theoretic models which identify the equilibrium balance of power among these 3 organizational elements as a function of a country's electoral institutions and voters' relative responsiveness to marginal policy changes. In turn, this more complete understanding of intra-party competition sheds light on a number of important questions in comparative politics and comparative political-economy. For example, it helps to identify conditions under which Downsian vote-maximization is in fact a viable assumption in spatial theoretic models; conditions under which Duverger's argument that proportional representation (PR) should tend to generate multi-party competition may not apply; and, in contrast to Lijphart's famous argument, conditions under which PR may instigate rather than mediate social conflict. Ten months of intensive field research conducted in Turkey provide both the quantitative and the qualitative data which constitute the dissertation's most basic empirical material. This data includes primary and secondary source material on the history of intra-organizational competition in Turkey; observational and informant-based information on contemporary Turkish politics and the events of 2006-2008; and a data set of over 4,000 observations on party-switching in the Turkish Parliament (1987-2007).</p> / Dissertation

Le Maroc a fait du tourisme le levier économique de son développement national. Pour l’Etat marocain, le tourisme représente la bouée de sauvetage pour le développement du pays, susceptible d’assurer création d’emploi et de favoriser un échange culturel mondial. La mise semble bien apporter ses fruits puisque le secteur touristique est le 2ème contributeur au PIB national après l’agriculture (12% du PIB national). Le tourisme au Maroc a généré 57.5 milliards de dirhams et 500 000 emplois directs en 2013. Certes, le tourisme a bien évolué au Maroc et les arrivées sont passées de 4 278 120 millions en 2000 à 10.046 millions en 2013 ; toutefois, la part des touristes étrangers ne représente que 53% de la totalité des arrivées, et la part des marocains résidant à l’étranger (MRE) en représente 47%. Ce chiffre parait minime comparé aux arrivées internationales dans le monde, à l’image de marque véhiculée par l’Etat marocain, et aux atouts dont dispose le pays. Car comment se fait-il qu’un pays doté d’une culture ancestrale, d’un paysage diversifié dont 3600 km de côtes, d’un climat doux toute l’année, ne séduise que 5 323 333 millions de touristes étrangers? Le tourisme évolue en fonction du développement économique et politique, du développement socioculturel, du développement environnemental, des tendances de la consommation, et de la structure internationale de la production touristique. Ce travail a pour objectif de croiser plusieurs disciplines afin de déceler les principaux freins au développement du tourisme au Maroc, ainsi que les atouts du pays à mettre en valeur. / Morocco has invested in the tourism sector and placed it at the core of its development endeavors. The sector generates jobs and promotes a global cultural exchange. In fact, the tourism sector is nowadays the second largest contributor to national Moroccan GDP after the agriculture sector (12% of national GDP). Tourism in Morocco generated 57.5 billion dirhams and 500,000 direct jobs in 2013. Of course, tourism has evolved well in Morocco and visitor numbers have increased from 4,278,120 million in 2000 to 10,046 million in 2013. However, the share of foreign tourists represents only 53% of all visitors, and the share of Moroccans living abroad (MRE) represents 47%. This figure seems minimal compared to international visitors in the world, the brand image conveyed by the Moroccan state, and the assets available to the country. How is it that a country endowed with ancestral culture, a diversified landscape with 3600 km of coastline, a mild climate all year round, receives only 5,323,333 million foreign tourists? Tourism development goes hand in hand with economic and political development, social-cultural development, environmental development, consumption trends, and the international structure of tourism production. This thesis aims at answering this question using cross-research disciplines to identify the main obstacles hindering the development of tourism in Morocco, as well as the assets of the country.

Globalisation is an inescapable fact. National economies are no longer immune to external influences and cannot be insulated from global effects. South African construction companies globalise as a result of expansion, diversification, deepening of trade and to eliminate the cyclical nature of the construction market within South Africa. A literature review revealed the following risks for South African construction companies when globalising into Southern Africa: competition from other international construction companies, the lack of political stability in the region, fraud and corruption, conflicting cultures of varying regions, the impact of foreign exchange, under-researched and documented industries and lack of quality assurance and the impact of HIV/AIDS amongst other risks. In contrast, funding and foreign aid, the superior management capability and information technology that South African construction companies possess, the opportunities to form associations and joint ventures with other construction companies to access markets and the possibility of advance payments are amongst the opportunities that can be exploited in the Southern African region. Sub-Saharan Africa is viewed as one of the world's poorest and under-developed regions. The region has alarming HIV/AIDS infection rates prevalent. However, it is a region rich in natural resources and tourism potential. The countries analysed in this treatise for the risks and potential opportunities for South African construction companies are: Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe. A common trend, such as, political instability, under-developed infrastructure, massive housing, educational and health facility needs, ample supply of unskilled and semi-skilled labour and a high dependency on foreign aid is dominant in most Southern African countries. Conversely, opportunities exist to upgrade infrastructure, address the massive housing, schools and hospitals need, exploitation of tourism potential and the ability to form joint ventures with local construction companies in an attempt to transfer skills, share risks and overcome cultural barriers. Interviews with representatives of leading construction companies emphasised risks such as late and non-payment, logistics, foreign exchange fluctuations, culture differences (including language disparity), bureaucracy, health of workforce and labour productivity. With very few exceptions, most respondents had similar views on risks perceived in particular countries. Interviewees highlighted opportunities such as higher returns, access to larger markets, earning foreign exchange, the region's need for housing, schools and hospitals, availability of donor and foreign aid, superior management capabilities of South African contractors, reconstruction and rehabilitation of dilapidated buildings and tourism demand. With very few exceptions, most respondents had similar views on opportunities perceived in particular countries. In terms of risks, opportunities and statistical data, the countries were ranked as follows, with first being most favourable and the last mentioned as least favourable: Botswana, Namibia, Mozambique, Swaziland, Angola, Lesotho, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi. A way forward is presented by means of "words of advice" and rules of thumb from the representatives of the leading construction companies in South Africa who have already tested the waters. / Thesis (MSc (Project Management))--University of Pretoria, 2004. / Construction Economics / unrestricted

The topic of this thesis is on political instability and revolutionary war in the countries that were involved with the Arab Spring. As created by James. C Davies (1962), the J-curve hypothesis serves as the foundational theoretical framework, where revolutions are ignited after prolonged improvements in political and economic living conditions which become interrupted by a sharp reversal. Panel data with variables that measure quantitative factors are analysed by using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and logistic regression, to statistically test which factors have created political instability and ignited revolutionary war in the Arab Spring. The results of the statistical analysis indicate that political factors, rather than economic factors, such as political terror against the population and government corruption are the most relevant in explaining political instability and revolutionary war in the Arab Spring and the developments that followed.

The natural resource curse is a widely debated phenomenon usually proposing a connection between large extractive resource wealth and substandard economic performance. This paper concerns the connection between large extractive resource wealth and the potential for its effects on long term political stability. Using Venezuela as a case study, this paper delves into the political history of Venezuela, plagued by endemic political instability, and attempts to test the political aspect of the resource curse, analysing history with a focus on the oil industry. The conclusion is that there is a clear connection between oil price volatility and political instability, but only evident starting in the latter half of the 20th -century. Further research into specific regimes, eras, as well as comparative analyses between Venezuela and other states is required to provide additional answers in regard to specific causes for political instability in the early 20th -century and the pre-oil period.

Traditional studies of the modernization-instability thesis have neglected the simultaneous influence of time and place on the relationship between modernization (social mobilization and political participation) and political instability, and the possible causal linkage between the two concepts. Empirical support for modernization-instability hypothesis will be obtained if and only if there is a strong positive correlation between modernization and political instability and the former causes the latter unidirectionally. Only then can one assert that modernization is exogenous, and that a policy geared toward restricting modernization is a proper anti-instability policy. This work attempts to address the question of correlation and causality through a pooled time-series cross-sectional data design and the use of Granger-causality tests. Particular attention is paid to the error structure of the models. Using pooled regression, a model of political instability is estimated for a total of 35 countries for the period 1960-1982. Granger tests are performed on twelve separate countries randomly selected from the 35. The results indicate that there is the expected positive relationship between modernization and political instability. Further, political institutionalization and economic well-being have strong negative influence on political instability. With regard to causality, the results vary by country. Some countries experience no causality between modernization and political instability, while some witness bidirectional causality. Further, some nations experience unidirectional causality running from modernization to political instability, while some depict a reverse causation. The main results suggest that modernization and political instability are positively related, and that political instability can have causal influence on modernization, just as modernization can exert causal influence on political instability.

The determinants of audit fees and report lag: A comparative study of Egypt and the UK Despite the occurrence of recent economic and political events such as the global financial crisis and Arab spring in the Middle East, researchers have not addressed the effects of such events on the auditing profession. That is has given a motive to this study to explore this point of research. This study has three main objectives. The first objective is to investigate the determinants of audit fees and audit report timeliness in the Egyptian and UK contexts. The second objective is to point out how the economic and political events could affect these determinants. The third objective is to make a comparison between the response of auditors towards economic and political instability in both countries. These objectives are set to solve the research problem of this study which is to investigate how the price behaviour of audit fees and report timeliness can vary in two different contexts: Egypt and the UK, and to highlight how auditors respond to such economic (Global Financial Crisis) and political events (Egyptian Revolution). A special attention has been addressed to tourism industry while investigating audit pricing and timeliness decisions throughout this study for two reasons. First, tourism industry play a critical role for the economy of many developing and developed countries. Second, tourism industry is highly affected by any economic and political events. For these reasons, tourism industry is surrounded by high risk during the economic or political instability, and thus this might result in special procedures and decisions taken by the auditors regarding tourism industry clients during instable periods. To take into account the most recent economic and political events, the study sample covers the period of six financial years from 2008 to 2013. This sample period has been chosen to capture the global financial crisis that has taken place during 2008-2009 and also to investigate the effects of the Egyptian revolution that has taken place on January 25, 2011, and subsequent political events. The study sample includes 212 Egyptian companies listed in the Egyptian stock market and the top 350 companies (FTSE 350) listed in the London Stock Exchange. For guaranteeing the preciseness of the findings, advanced panel data Prais-Winsten statistical analysis technique has been used throughout this study. Results of this study reveal consistency between Egypt and UK in most signs of coefficients of audit fees determinants. However, a lot of differences exist between the audit report lag determinants in the Egyptian and UK context that suggest that a one-size-fits-all approach cannot be generalized in audit report lag determinants for various countries. Despite that tourism is a very risky industry that is easily affected by economic and political instability, results reported in Egypt and UK reveal that audit fees charged and audit delay reported for tourism did not differ from other industries in both contexts. Results also reveal that Big N auditing firms in the UK have competitive advantages of not charging an audit fee premium and offering a more timely audit report than non-big N. These advantages increase the demand of Big N in the UK and increase their dominance. On the other side, in Egypt, Big N auditing firms do not offer such advantage of timely audit reports than non-big N, besides, they charge their clients with audit fee premium. That enabled medium sized and small auditing firms to penetrate the Egyptian auditing market and increase their market share, and thus, Big N dominance is not high in the Egyptian audit market as that in the UK. Different auditor responses to global financial crisis (GFC) have been documented in both countries. As auditors in Egypt decreased their audit fees and offered more timely audit report to face the economic recession and the anxiety of investors accompanied with the GFC. However, neither the pricing of auditing services nor the audit report lag have been affected during the GFC in the UK audit market. According to the results of this study, during the Egyptian Revolution, auditors tended to charge audit fees premium without increasing/decreasing audit delay. This implies that the increase in audit fees during revolution was a risk premium due to the instability in economic and political conditions and was not accompanied by any increase in audit effort and delay.