<p>This thesis consists of a summary and four papers. The first two concerns health care and sickness absence, and the last two pharmaceutical costs and prices.</p><p>Paper [I] presents an economic federation model which resembles the situation in, for example, Sweden. In the model the state governments provide health care, the fed-eral government provides a sickness benefit and both levels tax labor income. The re-sults show that the states can have either an incentive to under- or over-provide health care. The federal government can, by introducing an intergovernmental transfer, in-duce the state governments to provide the socially optimal amount of health care.</p><p>In Paper [II] the effect of aggregated public health care expenditure on absence from work due to sickness or disability was estimated. The analysis was based on data from a panel of the Swedish municipalities for the period 1993-2004. Public health care expenditure was found to have no statistically significant effect on absence and the standard errors were small enough to rule out all but a minimal effect. The result held when separate estimations were conducted for women and men, and for absence due to sickness and disability.</p><p>The purpose of Paper [III] was to study the effects of the introduction of fixed pharmaceutical budgets for two health centers in Västerbotten, Sweden. Estimation results using propensity score matching methods show that there are no systematic differences for either price or quantity per prescription between health centers using fixed and open-ended budgets. The analysis was based on individual prescription data from the two health centers and a control group both before and after the introduction of fixed budgets.</p><p>In Paper [IV] the introduction of the Swedish substitution reform in October 2002 was used as a natural experiment to examine the effects of increased consumer infor-mation on pharmaceutical prices. Using monthly data on individual pharmaceutical prices, the average reduction of prices due to the reform was estimated to four percent for both brand name and generic pharmaceuticals during the first four years after the reform. The results also show that the price adjustment was not instant.</p>

In this thesis, we explore two different approaches to causal inferences. The traditional approach models the theoretical relationship between the outcome variables and their explanatory variables, i.e., the science, at the same time as the systematic differences between treated and control subjects are modeled, i.e., the assignment mechanism. The alternative approach, based on Rubin's Causal Model (RCM), makes it possible to model the science and the assignment mechanism separately in a two-step procedure. In the first step, no outcome variables are used when the assignment mechanism is modeled, the treated students are matched with similar control students using this mechanism, and the models for the science are determined. Outcome variables are only used in the second step when these pre-specified models for the science are fitted. In the first paper, we use the traditional approach to evaluate whether a husband is more prone to quit smoking when his wife quits smoking than he would have been had his wife not quit. We find evidence that this is the case, but that our analysis must rely on restrictive assumptions. In the subsequent two papers, we use the alternative RCM approach to evaluate if a Harvard freshman who does not smoke (observed potential outcome) is more prone to start smoking when he shares a suite with at least one smoker, than he would have been had he shared a suite with only smokers (missing potential outcomes). We do not find evidence that this is the case, and the small and insignificant treatment effect is robust against various assumptions that we make regarding covariate adjustments and missing potential outcomes. In contrast, we do find such evidence when we use the traditional approach previously used in the literature to evaluate peer effects relating to smoking, but the treatment effect is not robust against the assumptions that we make regarding covariate adjustments. These contrasting results in the two latter papers allow us to conclude that there are a number of advantages with the alternative RCM approach over the traditional approaches previously used to evaluate peer effects relating to smoking. Because the RCM does not use the outcome variables when the assignment mechanism is modeled, it can be re-fit repeatedly without biasing the models for the science. The assignment mechanism can then often be modeled to fit the data better and, because the models for the science can consequently better control for the assignment mechanism, they can be fit with less restrictive assumptions. Moreover, because the RCM models two distinct processes separately, the implications of the assumptions that are made on these processes become more transparent. Finally, the RCM can derive the two potential outcomes needed for drawing causal inferences explicitly, which enhances the transparency of the assumptions made with regard to the missing potential outcomes. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2006 S. 1-13: sammanfattning, s. [15]-161: 4 uppsatser

This thesis consists of a summary and four papers. The first two concerns health care and sickness absence, and the last two pharmaceutical costs and prices. Paper [I] presents an economic federation model which resembles the situation in, for example, Sweden. In the model the state governments provide health care, the fed-eral government provides a sickness benefit and both levels tax labor income. The re-sults show that the states can have either an incentive to under- or over-provide health care. The federal government can, by introducing an intergovernmental transfer, in-duce the state governments to provide the socially optimal amount of health care. In Paper [II] the effect of aggregated public health care expenditure on absence from work due to sickness or disability was estimated. The analysis was based on data from a panel of the Swedish municipalities for the period 1993-2004. Public health care expenditure was found to have no statistically significant effect on absence and the standard errors were small enough to rule out all but a minimal effect. The result held when separate estimations were conducted for women and men, and for absence due to sickness and disability. The purpose of Paper [III] was to study the effects of the introduction of fixed pharmaceutical budgets for two health centers in Västerbotten, Sweden. Estimation results using propensity score matching methods show that there are no systematic differences for either price or quantity per prescription between health centers using fixed and open-ended budgets. The analysis was based on individual prescription data from the two health centers and a control group both before and after the introduction of fixed budgets. In Paper [IV] the introduction of the Swedish substitution reform in October 2002 was used as a natural experiment to examine the effects of increased consumer infor-mation on pharmaceutical prices. Using monthly data on individual pharmaceutical prices, the average reduction of prices due to the reform was estimated to four percent for both brand name and generic pharmaceuticals during the first four years after the reform. The results also show that the price adjustment was not instant.

The central research question is the extent to which gifted programming affects student academic outcomes of gifted as compared to not-gifted students and how this differs by race/ethnicity and/or poverty status. Since the identification of elementary school students as gifted is not random, propensity score matching is used to remove this bias in the estimates of the effects. A matched sample of North Carolina middle school students based on individual level data of both gifted and not-gifted students of varied racial/ethnic groups and income levels is used for this analysis. This enables a comparison of sixth, seventh, and eighth grade student achievement to determine the extent to which participating in gifted programming differentiates effects by race/ethnicity and poverty status. I show the additional test score gain, if any, from being in gifted programming compared to students not participating in gifted programs. Variations in gifted program effects across race/ethnicity and income are assessed. This research adds empirical evidence to the more qualitatively focused gifted debate by analyzing differences in student outcomes between gifted and not-gifted students in North Carolina. Since black and lower income students are less likely to participate in gifted programs, they disproportionately encounter less experienced teachers, lower expectations, and fewer resources. The extent to which these additional learning supports translate to differences in student outcomes are analyzed.

The central research question is the extent to which gifted programming effects student academic outcomes of gifted as compared to not-gifted students and how this differs by race/ethnicity and/or poverty status. Since the identification of elementary school students as gifted is not random, propensity score matching is used to remove this bias in the estimates of the effects. A matched sample of North Carolina middle school students based on individual level data of both gifted and not-gifted students of varied racial/ethnic groups and income levels is used for this analysis. This enables a comparison of sixth, seventh, and eighth grade student achievement to determine the extent to which participating in gifted programming differentiates effects by race/ethnicity and poverty status. I show the additional test score gain, if any, from being in gifted programming compared to students not participating in gifted programs. Variations in gifted program effects across race/ethnicity and income are assessed. This research adds empirical evidence to the more qualitatively focused gifted debate by analyzing differences in student outcomes between gifted and not-gifted students in North Carolina. Since black and lower income students are less likely to participate in gifted programs, they disproportionately encounter less experienced teachers, lower expectations, and fewer resources. The extent to which these additional learning supports translate to differences in student outcomes are analyzed.

This thesis consists of an introductory part and four papers. Paper [I] estimates jointly the choice of whether to enroll in education and the choice of location among young people. Being a particularly mobile group, the location choices of young individuals shape much of the regional distribution of human capital, growth, and local public sector budgets. Applying Swedish register data on nest leavers, we seek to determine factors deciding the education and location choice of young people. The results indicate a systematic selection higher education based on school grades and preferences for locations with higher per capita tax bases and with lower shares of elderly people. The importance of family networks for the choice of location is confirmed.              Paper [II] examines how individual ability, reflected by the grade point average (GPA) from comprehensive school affects the probability of migration among university graduates. The econometric analysis applies detailed micro-data of two entire cohorts of young individuals retrieved from the Swedish population registers. The results indicate that individual abilities are strongly influential both concerning completion of a university degree and for the migration decision. In addition, we find a positive relationship between the GPA and migrating from regions with lower per capita tax bases and/or a relatively small share of highly educated individuals. Analogously, individuals with a high GPA tend to stay in more densely populated regions, suggesting a clustering of human capital vis-à-vis school grades.  Paper [III] estimates the relationship between migration across labour market regions and the subsequent changes in earnings by using the GPA from the final year of comprehensive school as a proxy for ability. This measure aims to capture heterogeneity in the returns to migration for individuals conditional on education attainment. Using Swedish register data on young adults, a difference-in-difference propensity score matching estimator is applied to estimate income differences measured up to seven years after migration. The results show variation between different ability groups regarding the returns to regional migration. There are indications of larger gains for individuals holding top grades, while the bottom half seems to benefit less, or face slightly negative effects. Paper [IV] examines whether power couple formation and the location choice of such couples are driven by factors already inherent in young people during their formative school years. The paper also extends the analysis by modeling location choice among different sizes of labor market areas, given different power statuses of the couples. Based on analysis of Swedish register data, we produce evidence that power spouses evolve from the population of high achieving school age individuals; the latter is identified by high academic performance during their years of compulsory school. Regarding location choice, the results indicate that power couples display a relatively high tendency to migrate from their regions of origin to large cities.

This paper analyzes how remittance receipts affect labor force participation and daily time allocation of individuals residing in remittance-receiving households of rural Pakistan. In particular, I use the first Time-Use Survey of Pakistan (2007) to assess how members of remittance-receiving households distribute time over market production and its complements, namely, home production, leisure consumption and educational investment. I employ the statistical technique of propensity score matching to find a comparison group for individuals residing in remittance-receiving households. My results indicate that impact of remittances on daily activity sets cannot be analogously identified across genders. Men residing in remittance-receiving households devote less time to market production and consume more leisure. Women, on the other hand, invest more time in home production while maintaining the same level of market production.

Ohio, Ohio State Univ., Diss.--Columbus, 2004. / Kopie, ersch. im Verl. UMI, Ann Arbor, Mich.

Cette thèse de doctorat est consacrée à la modélisation statistique de l'impact des environnements académiques sur les croyances et la réussite des élèves au Chili. Nous contribuons au domaine de l'efficacité éducative avec une discussion statistique et deux études empiriques. La discussion statique questionne la façon de combiner les modèles multiniveaux avec des méthodes pour le biais de sélection et pour les données manquantes. Cette discussion statistique sera utilisée pour prendre des décisions méthodologiques dans les études empiriques. La première étude empirique consiste en une évaluation d'intervention de l'impact des cours de sciences sur les croyances des étudiants. La deuxième étude empirique concerne l'effet des écoles sur les trajectoires des scores de mathématiques et de lecture des élèves. Dans la partie statistique, nous avons décrit et analysé les méthodes d'ajustement linéaire et d'appariement des scores de propension pour modéliser le biais de sélection. En ce qui concerne les problèmes de données manquantes, nous avons analysé la méthode d'imputation multiple. Chacune de ces méthodes est compatible avec les modèles multi-niveaux. En revanche, l'utilisation combinée de ces méthodes pour des données hiérarchiques n'est pas résolu. Nous présentons alors une discussion statistique qui analyse et classe des stratégies pour combiner ces méthodes.La première étude empirique concerne l'influence des disciplines scientifiques qui s'intéressent à des objets vivants et non-vivants sur les croyances épistémiques et le sentiment d'auto-efficacité des étudiants de secondaire. Nous avons comparé, pour ces croyances, les étudiants qui ont suivi des cours de sciences à un groupe contrôle sur deux temps de mesure, à la fin des cours et 4 mois après. Nous avons constaté un effet positif du travail en laboratoire et des disciplines qui s'intéressent à des objets vivants (en contrôlant les variables confondues). Cette étude met en lumière des différences entre les disciplines qui s'intéressent à des objets vivant et des objets non-vivant qui devront être explorées.La deuxième étude empirique concerne l'effet des écoles sur les trajectoires des scores en mathématiques et en lecture des élèves. Le premier objectif est de décrire les caractéristiques des trajectoires et la variance expliquée par les écoles primaires et secondaires. Le deuxième objectif est de mesurer l'effet du type d'école, publique ou voucher (privée avec un financement de l'état), sur les trajectoires. Nous avons utilisé une base de données nationale longitudinale qui comprenait des mesures pour les mêmes élèves en 4ème, 8ème et 10ème années. Des modèles de croissance multiniveaux ont été utilisés pour modéliser les trajectoires. Nos résultats montrent que les écoles secondaires et primaires ont un effet sur les interceptes et les pentes des trajectoires. Par ailleurs, nous avons constaté un effet négatif de l'école publique, qui est devenu non significatif lorsque nous avons contrôlé la composition socio-économique de l'école et ses pratiques de sélection. Ces résultats illustrent la stratification entre le système public et le système voucher ainsi que la nécessité de questionner l'efficacité des écoles pour chaque système. / This PhD thesis is dedicated to the statistical modeling of the impact of academic environments on student’s beliefs and achievement in Chile. We contribute to the field of educational effectiveness with a statistical discussion regarding how to combine multilevel models with methods for selection bias and missing data and two empirical studies. The statistical discussion was used to take methodological decisions in the empirical studies. The first empirical study evaluates the impact of science courses on students’ beliefs. The second empirical study is about school effects on students’ trajectories in mathematics and reading scores. In the statistical part, we analyze linear adjustment and propensity score matching to address selection bias. Regarding the missing data problem, we considered multiple imputation techniques. Each of these methods is compatible with multilevel models. However, the problem of addressing selection bias and missing data simultaneously with hierarchical data is not resolved. We present a statistical discussion that classifies and analyzes strategies to combine the methods. The first empirical study regards the influence of Life and Non-life science courses in secondary students’ epistemic and self-efficacy beliefs related to sciences. We compared students that took summer science courses with a control group in a post and follow-up beliefs questionnaire. We found positive effects of Life courses and courses with laboratory work, controlling for confounding variables. The results show differences between Life and Non-life scientific disciplines that should be explored. The second empirical study concerns school effects on trajectories of Chilean students. It has two aims. The first aim is to describe the characteristics of the trajectories in mathematics and reading scores and the variation explained by primary and secondary schools. The second aim is to measure the effect of public schools in comparison with voucher schools on students’ trajectories in mathematics and reading scores. We used a longitudinal national database which included measures for the same students at 4th, 8th and 10th grade. Multilevel growth models were used to model the trajectories. We found effects of secondary and primary schools on intercepts and slopes. In addition, we found negative effects from public education, which became not significant after controlling for school’ socioeconomic composition and selection practices. The results illustrate the stratification between the public system and voucher system and the need to study inside each system which schools are more efficient.

O sistema educacional do Brasil avançou significativamente nos últimos 15 anos, atingindo a quase universalização do ensino fundamental. Após a expansão do acesso à educação básica no país, um dos maiores desafios é melhorar a qualidade educacional oferecida pelas escolas da rede pública, mantendo os alunos na escola. Os objetivos deste estudo são os de identificar os fatores que determinam a qualidade da educação básica no estado do Rio Grande do Sul (RS) e, com auxílio destes dados, analisar o desempenho dos estudantes de uma escola federal, o Colégio de Aplicação (CAp) da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), com relação aos demais alunos da rede pública. Para cumprir os objetivos propostos e explorar o potencial de melhoria do desempenho dos estudantes de 4ª e 8ª série, são utilizados modelos de regressão linear múltipla e de Propensity Score Matching, em exercícios específicos. A base de dados utilizada na pesquisa é a Prova Brasil aplicada em 2007, na disciplina de Matemática, e os respectivos questionários socioeconômicos. Os resultados apresentados mostram que as características de background familiar são fortes e significativas para explicar o desempenho dos estudantes analisados, corroborando os resultados da literatura nacional e internacional, e sugerem uma heterogeneidade na qualidade do ensino oferecido nas três dependências administrativas. Para a análise da escola federal, os resultados apontam um desempenho superior dos alunos do CAp quando comparados a estudantes que possuem as mesmas características de background familiar. / The Brazilian educational system has advanced significantly over the past 15 years reaching almost universal primary education. After expanding access to basic education in the country, one of the major challenges is to improve the quality of education offered by public schools, keeping students in school. The objectives of this study are to identify the factors that determine the quality of basic education in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and, using these data, analyze the performance of a federal school students, the Colégio de Aplicação (CAp) of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), in relation to other public school students. To meet the proposed objectives and explore the potential for improving the performance of students in 4th and 8th grade, we used multiple linear regression models and Propensity Score Matching, in specific exercises. The database used in this research is the 2007 Prova Brasil, in Mathematics, and their socioeconomic questionnaires. The results show that the characteristics of family background are strong and significant in explaining the performance of the analyzed students, confirming the results of national and international literature and, suggesting a heterogeneity in the quality of education offered in three administrative regions. For the analysis of the federal school, the results indicate superior performance of students in CAp when compared to students who have the same family background characteristics.