För att få bukt med lågkonjunkturen efter finanskrisen 2008 förde Sverige en expansiv penningpolitik. Även om Sverige tog sig ur krisen relativt smärtfritt följdes det av en period med deflation. Det ledde till att reporäntan 2015 för första gången sänktes under nollgränsen, och därmed tog den svenska penningpolitiken ett historiskt steg för att nå inflationsmålet. De låga räntorna har lett till att priserna på bostadsmarknaden har skenat iväg och de svenska hushållens skulder har ökat avsevärt där den genomsnittliga skuldkvoten är uppe i 343 procent. Från de penningpolitiska protokollen uttrycker Riksbanken en stor oro för denna utveckling och föreslår riktade åtgärder i bostads-, och skattepolitiken. Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka effekterna av penningpolitiska åtgärder samt utvecklingen av bostadspriserna har haft på de svenska hushållen skulder. Genom en VAR-modell, Granger-orsakssamband, Impulse-response test och stresstester har denna studie kunnat påvisa och kartlägga vad som händer med de svenska hushållens skulder vid en eventuell räntehöjning. Resultaten visar att en räntechock mellan 3–5 procent minskar framtida skuldsättning, och ekonomin anpassar sig till jämvikt efter 5–8 perioder vilket representerar 15–24 månader. Den ger därmed ett starkt stöd för penningpolitikens kausalitet. Resultaten visar dessutom att det finns hushåll med låg disponibel inkomst som lever under existensminimum idag, och vid en räntehöjning överstiger några hushåll sitt existensminimum med nästan 50 procent. Studiens teoretiska del ger en förklaring om penningpolitikens jobb och dess flöde till hushåll och företag. Den tar även upp tidigare forskning som har undersökt marknadsbeteende hos hushåll.

The ascent of China to a global power status has created a new wave of theoretical discourse on what this means for the future of international relations. The general consensus on a unipolar order of international relations is slowly giving way to discourse. The time of polarity shift in the system is associated with a likely conflict between the descending hegemon and the ascending power (Snyder 2002; Mearsheimer 2010). This theoretical background suggest that in the future, we might witness a military conflict between the US and China. On the other side of the spectrum is a more optimistic view of China's rise, which emphasizes the role of economic interdependence and the extreme cost of any aggressive foreign policy that would escalate the conflict potential between China and the US (Ikenberry 2008; Kang 2007; Fravel 2010). This assumption of a future military conflict between the US and China is at the center of this research. In the following pages I will explore the idea of a military conflict between the US and China in an in-depth analysis of the most contested and conflict-prone issues between China and the US: the future of Taiwan and the Senkaku Island dispute.

Prospect theory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1979) predicts that decision-makers work to avoid loss and maximize gains, even when outcomes are expected to be equal. Aversion to loss, and the feelings associated with loss, operates as a strong, often unconscious, bias that guides cognitive understanding of choice and consequently decisions. Prospect theory explains that faming choices around losses biases decision-makers to be more risk-seeking in order to avoid the feelings associated with loss. “The aggravation that one experiences in losing… appears to be greater than the pleasure associated with gaining the same amount” (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979, p. 279). Therefore, prospect theory explains how language framing can affect decision-making under uncertainty. Relatedly, social conflict is resolved by making choices (Diederich, 2003) and often involves a negotiation process that is affected by how negotiators perceive their situation (Schweitzer, et al., 2005). Yet prospect theory is widely underutilized in the context of social conflict (see Barberis, 2013; Butler, 2007). Therefore, this dissertation (1) tests the impact of loss and gain frames on decision-making within a social conflict involving a landlord, (2) examines the boundaries of the theory, and (3) offers insight about the implications of social conflict framing and language on decision-making. Results show that decision-making in a social conflict is significantly influenced by language framing. Loss frames and individual fault frames are two barriers to better conflict. Specifically, loss frames resulted in more negative affect for participants and less collaboration with the landlord. Gain frames resulted in more cooperation by participants. However, these effects were moderated by fault frames, indicating that, within a conflict, the feelings associated with being at fault may be more important than the feelings loss and gain frames evoke. The one exception where language framing may not be as effective is when participants had a prior experience of a similar conflict. For example, being a landlord, and being comfortable with conflict interacted with the language frames and, in some cases, prior experience was a stronger predictor of emotions and decision outcomes. Finally, emotions were found to be highly relevant to language framing and decision-making. Although all frames had some effect on emotion, negative emotion was much more affected by individual loss. Positive emotion was most strongly affected by joint and neutral fault conditions. These findings suggest that negative emotions are easily manipulated by imagining what we might lose individually, whereas positive emotions are more affected by believing we are not alone in the conflict. In support of prospect theory, framing a conflict around loss can make others feel worse about the conflict and about decisions. However, it is more difficult to make others feel positively about a conflict simply by reframing the conflict in terms of gains. Instead, in a social conflict, language frames around joint fault was the best predictor of positive affect. The implications of these findings are discussed. Keywords: Prospect theory, cognitive bias, negotiation, functional conflict / Media & Communication

I analyzed the effects of Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Revenue Protection crop insurance (RP) on the RP coverage level by certainty equivalents and certainty equivalent returns. ARC is a commodity program that falls under Title I of the 2014 farm bill and triggers a payment for a participating producer once his actual revenue falls below a band of 76-86 percent of a calculated expected revenue. RP is a revenue-based crop insurance program that allows for a producer to sign up for one of eight different coverage levels ranging from 50-85 percent in 5 percent increments. This leads to the idea that in order to maximize his utility, a fully-informed, expected-utility maximizing producer should not choose to select full coverage RP but rather select the 75 percent RP and pair it with the ARC program. This analysis is conducted under the conceptual frameworks of expected-utility and cumulative prospect theory.

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När en individ identifierar sig med ett varumärke har det visat sig att hen är mer benägen att utföra positiva gärningar gentemot varumärket. Det kan innefatta positive word of mouth, att försvara varumärket vid smutskastning eller intention att köpa produkter från varumärket. För att en identifikation ska uppstå krävs det att en individ kan se delar av sig själv i varumärket eller se en vinning i att identifiera sig med det. En viktig del för varumärket är att visa detta i sin marknadsföring. Till hjälp finns det fem centrala katalysatorer som hjälper till med denna process på olika nivåer. Jag har i denna undersökning isolerat och analyserat dessa i hjälporganisationers marknadsföring för att kunna se hur de används. Vidare används nästan alltid någon form av gestaltning i marknadsföring för att få konsumenten att i större utsträckning förstå budskapet och se det ur berättarens ögon. På det sättet så kan konsumenten lättare ta till sig vad varumärket vill säga och, om kommunikationen är utförd rätt, ges större chans till identifikation. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka om 1) hjälporganisationer använder sig av gestaltning i sin marknadsföring, 2)om de använder sig olika katalysatorer för Consumer Brand Identification och 3) om dessa varumärken är lätta att identifiera sig med enligt dessa teorier. Till hjälp för att ta reda på detta så har studien använt sig utav teorierna kring Consumer Brand Identification, gestaltningsteorin och delar av The prospect theory. Studien har analyserat reklamfilmer från två olika hjälporganisationer: Rädda barnen och Unicef. I studien användes en kvalitativ retorisk analys för att tolka reklamfilmernas manifesta och latenta budskap samt två sammanställningar av strategisk gestaltning och olika katalysatorer för Consumer Brand Identification. Resultatet visade att reklamfilmerna tillsammans innehöll alla de olika katalysatorerna och strategiska gestaltningarna. Det intressanta och anmärkningsvärda var att reklamfilmerna ibland inte använde den strategiska gestaltningen på det sätt som forskningen visat skulle vara det bästa sättet att använda dem på. Vad detta kan bero på kan man bara spekulera om och det gör jag också i slutdelen av denna uppsats. / When an individual identifies with a brand, it has been proved that he or she does to some extent perform positive actions toward the brand. It can include positive word of mouth, defending the brand in mudslinging, or intent to purchase products from the brand. For an identification to occur, the individual has to see parts of her or his soul in the brand. An important part of the marketing strategy is to show the brands values in their marketing. To facilitate this there are five key drivers that help with this process at different levels. I have in this study isolated and analyzed them in humanitarian organizations marketing. Furthermore, there is almost always some kind of strategic framing in marketing, to get consumers to increasingly understand the message and see it from the narrator's eyes. In this way, the consumer can more easily absorb what the brand is trying to say, and if the communication is performed properly, greater the chance of identification. The aim of this study is to investigate whether humanitarian organizations 1) make use of strategic framing in their marketing, 2) make use of driver for Consumer Brand Identification and 3) if those brands are easy to identify with according to these theories. To help determine this, the study used the theories of Consumer Brand Identification, strategic framing theory and parts of The prospect theory. The study has analyzed commercials from two different aid organizations: Save the Children and UNICEF. The study used a qualitative rhetorical analysis to interpret the advertisings manifest and latent messages and two compilations of strategic design and various driver for Consumer Brand Identification. The result showed that the commercials together contained all the various drivers and strategic framing elements. The interesting and noteworthy part was that the commercials did not, in some cases, use the strategic portrayal in the way that research has shown would be the best way to use them. Why this is we can only speculate about, and so I do in the final section of this paper.

Profundas transformações têm impactado não somente os processos interacionais e comunicacionais como, também, a forma de se fazer pesquisa em comunicação. Tal busca por um maior entendimento passa pela dinâmica científica e seus métodos no campo da comunicação. O avanço das metodologias mais ligadas à neurociência e suas aplicações em outras áreas do conhecimento, incluindo a comunicação, fez emergir um crescente interesse por pesquisadores do campo. Entretanto, a contribuição efetiva de tais metodologias, como a aferição no nível condutância de pele e o rastreamento ocular (eye tracking) ainda não é devidamente clara. A presente pesquisa tem como objetivo aprofundar o diálogo interdisciplinar entre os campos da comunicação e neurociência, no que se refere ao emprego combinado das metodologias do eye tracking e de condutância de pele, a fim de se identificar possíveis contribuições e limitações dos métodos para a comunicação. Para tanto, foi conduzido um experimento com 46 universitários homens e mulheres, que tiveram seus dados de rastreamento ocular e nível de condutância de pele aferidos enquanto observavam um dos três tipos de abordagem (frame) em campanhas de segurança no trânsito (neutra, positiva e negativa). Os dados foram, então, analisados de forma quantitativa e qualitativa, e comparados com avaliações atitudinais autodeclaradas pelos participantes. Como principais resultados, houve diferenças entre três as abordagens consoante a forma e métrica de avaliação, sugerindo que a escolha por determinada forma de análise exerce um considerável efeito sobre os resultados. As considerações finais indicam que, apesar de apresentarem limitações, o eye tracking e a condutância de pele constituem métodos importantes e complementares às formas tradicionais de pesquisa em comunicação, ao conferirem uma maior objetividade e comparabilidade de informações relativas a aspectos atencionais e emocionais de conteúdos comunicacionais persuasivos. / Deep transformations have impacted not only on interactional and communication processes but also on the way of conducting research in communication. This search for a greater understanding goes through the scientific dynamics and its methods in the field of communication. The advancement of methodologies closely related to neuroscience and its applications in other areas of knowledge including applied social sciences - communication, has given rise to a growing interest by researchers in the field. However, the effective contribution of such methodologies, e.g. the measurement of the level of skin conductance and eye tracking, is not yet properly clear. The present research aims at deepening the interdisciplinary dialogue between the fields of communication and neuroscience regarding the combined use of the methodologies of eye tracking and skin conductance to identify possible contributions and limitations of methods for communication. In order to do so, an experiment was conducted with 46 male and female university students, who had their eye tracking data and skin conductance level collected while observing one of the three types of approach in traffic safety campaigns (neutral, positive and negative). The data were then analyzed in a quantitative and qualitative manner and compared with self-reported attitudinal answers by the participants. As the main results, there were differences between three approaches depending on the form and metric of evaluation, suggesting that the choice for a particular form of analysis exerts a considerable effect on the results. The final considerations indicate that despite limitations eye tracking and skin conductance are important and complementary methods to traditional forms of communication research, by providing greater objectivity and comparability of information regarding the attentional and emotional aspects of persuasive communication contents.

The fear of failure is something most people encounter on a daily basis and a common acceptance is; the more at stake, the harder is the process to make the right decision.This study examines how the variable “fear of failure” affects a strategic decision toexpand abroad. The study is based on a qualitative method and four CEOs of internationalized companies have been interviewed. Positivistic and deductive approaches are applied. Among the four companies risks was seen as a necessity fordeveloping the organization, but unnecessary risks were avoided. Finally, the study shows that fear affects internationalization decisions, especially in the form of lossaversion and uncertainty avoidance, where the uncertainty increased as physical and psychological distances increased. / Att rädsla för att misslyckas finns omkring oss är något som de flesta är medvetna om och oftast är det så att ju mer som står på spel, desto svårare blir processen att komma fram till rätt beslut. Studien har undersökt hur variabeln rädsla för att misslyckas påverkar ett strategiskt beslut om att etablera sig utomlands. Uppsatsen är byggd på en kvalitativ metod där fyra internationaliserade företag har studerats genom intervjuer. Vidare utgår studien från ett positivistiskt synsätt och ett deduktivt angreppssätt tillämpas. Bland de fyra företagen sågs risker som nödvändigt för att utveckla organisationen, men man tog helst inte onödiga risker. Avslutningsvis visar studien att rädsla påverkar internationaliseringsbeslut framförallt i form av förlust- och osäkerhetsaversion, där osäkerheten ökade med ökade fysiska och psykiska avstånd.

Stress and time pressure is more present in todays labor markets. In financial markets a securities broker is forced to take decisions on investments under high cognitive load and under extreme time pressure. The research of decision under risk gained new ground with the development of the prospect theory and gave us new insights to the decision making of men. Prospect theory has shown that people are risk seekers when dealing with loss decisions and risk avert when dealing with profit decisions. The value function are defined over gains and losses. Losses looms larger then gains. Although much research conducted on the decision making under risk no previous research have been done showing how time pressure affects decision at risk by using skin conductance. This paper aimed through a randomized experiment with 23 participants examine how time pressure affects individuals' decisions related to risk. Furthermore, it intends to analyze whether time pressure mediate a possible effect of stress by using skin conductance. The results show that there is an increase in risk aversion for gains. This risk aversion was also statistically significant at the 1% level when each participant's responses were used and almost at 5% level when the mean values from each participant was used. Upon loss a risk -seeking behavior could be noticed but it was not statistically significant at the 5 % level. Stress levels as measured by skin conductance showed that the time-pressed group showed signs of stress. However, no stress data was significant at the 5 % level. / Stress och tidspress är idag allt mer närvarande på arbetsmarknaden. På de finansiella marknaderna kan en värdepappersmäklare tvingas ta beslut om investeringar under hög kognitiv belastning och under en extrem tidspress. Forskningen av beslut under risk har genom prospect theory gett oss nya insikter om vilka beslut vi människor tar. Prospect theory har visat att människor är risksökande vid förlustfrågor och riskaversiva vid vinstfrågor. Prospect theorys värdefunktion är definierad över vinst och förlust. Förluster väger tyngre än vinster. Trots att mycket forskning genomförts på beslut vid risk har ingen tidigare forskning hur tidspress påverkar beslut vid risk med hjälp av hudkonduktans tidigare genomförts. Denna uppsats hade som mål att genom ett randomiserat experiment med 23 deltagare undersöka hur tidspress påverkar individers beslut kopplade till risk. Vidare är syftet att också analysera om upplevd stress medierar en eventuell effekt av tidspress genom att använda hudkonduktans. Resultatet visar att det finns en ökad riskaversion vid vinstfrågor. Denna riskaversion var även statistiskt säkerställd på 1% nivå när varje deltagares svar användes och nästan på 5% nivå då medelvärden från varje deltagare användes. Vid förlustfrågor fanns ett risksökande beteende men den var ej statistiskt säkerställd på 5% nivå. Stressnivåerna som uppmättes med hudkonduktans visade att den tidspressade gruppen blev stressade. Dock var inga stressdata signifikanta på 5% nivå.