As descobertas relacionadas à neurociência e aos métodos de coleta e análise de dados neurofisiológicos têm fomentado discussões sobre a aplicação desses aspectos em outras campos do conhecimento, dentre eles, o da comunicação. Este estudo tem como objetivo identificar e aferir processos neurais associados à avaliação emocional positiva e negativa de campanhas de segurança no trânsito, de modo a relacioná-los aos apontamentos trazidos pela Prospect Theory (ou Teoria Prospectiva), de que as pessoas tendem a responder de modo diferente ao se alterar apenas a forma de apresentação de um mesmo problema. Tal fato é especialmente importante na comunicação de riscos, em que são frequentemente utilizadas abordagens emocionais negativas como forma de discurso persuasivo. Deste modo, fez-se uma aplicação desses pressupostos ao campo da comunicação, sendo elaboradas duas campanhas experimentais de segurança no trânsito: uma contendo uma perspectiva emocional negativa e outra contendo uma perspectiva emocional positiva. Essas campanhas foram apresentadas em laboratório a 24 voluntários, os quais tiveram sua atividade cortical aferida pelo eletroencefalograma (EEG) e analisada do ponto de vista quantitativo e qualitativo, a fim de verificar uma assimetria frontal hemisférica de ondas alfa e teta nas duas condições, sugerida pela literatura como sendo atrelada a processos emocionais positivos e negativos. Como principais resultados, destacam-se a ocorrência de processos assimétricos significativos tanto na comparação entre as condições (i) neutra e negativa como nas condições (ii) neutra e positiva e (iii) positiva versus negativa, resultados que variaram conforme método de análise empregado. Em termos conclusivos, nota-se a verificação dos processos assimétricos previstos na literatura, porém, com grande variabilidade de amplitude e ocorrência no tempo entre os indivíduos, indicando que a metodologia de coleta com o EEG pode constituir uma forma complementar, e não isolada, de investigação dos processos comunicacionais em relação aos métodos tradicionais de pesquisa qualitativa e quantitativa empregados no campo da comunicação. / The findings related to neuroscience and methods of collection and analysis of neurophysiological data have encouraged discussions on the implementation of those aspects in other fields of knowledge, including communication. This study aims to identify and assess neural processes associated with positive and negative emotional evaluation of traffic safety campaigns, in order to relate them to the Prospect Theory considerations, that people tend to respond differently by changing only the presentation of the same problem. This fact is especially important in the risk communication scenario, which often uses the negative approach as a form of persuasive discourse. Thus, there was an application of these assumptions to the field of communication: two traffic safety campaigns were made: one containing a negative emotional perspective and another containing a positive emotional outlook. These campaigns were presented to 24 subjects in the laboratory, which had their cortical activity measured by electroencephalography (EEG) and analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively, in order to verify a frontal asymmetry of alpha and theta bands in both conditions, suggested by the literature as being linked to positive and negative emotional processes. The main results highlight the occurrence of significant asymmetric activation both in the comparison between (i) neutral and negative conditions as (ii) neutral and positive conditions and (iii) positive versus negative, results that varied according to method of analysis employed. In conclusive terms, there was a verification of asymmetric process verified in the literature, however, with notable variability in amplitude and occurrence in time between individuals, indicating that the methodology of EEG can complement, not in an isolated form, investigations of communication processes in relation to traditional methods of qualitative and quantitative research in the communication field.

O efeito disposição, originalmente proposto por Shefrin e Statman (1985), preconiza que os investidores tendem a vender ações com lucro em um curto período de tempo e manter ações com prejuízo por um longo período de tempo. A despeito da ampla gama de evidências sobre o assunto, as razões que levariam os investidores a manifestar esse viés comportamental ainda é motivo de uma controvérsia importante entre motivações racionais e comportamentais. Neste trabalho, o objetivo foi testar duas motivações comportamentais concorrentes para explicar o efeito disposição: a teoria perspectiva e o viés da reversão à média. Para cumprir esse objetivo, foi feita uma análise das transações mensais de compra e venda de uma amostra de 51 fundos de investimento em ações brasileiros, no período de 2002 a 2008. A análise envolveu a estimação de dois modelos de regressão de variável dependente qualitativa. O primeiro consistiu em um modelo logit binário cujo propósito foi determinar a probabilidade de um gestor realizar um ganho ou uma perda de capital em razão de variáveis de retorno das ações. O segundo foi um modelo logit ordenado cujo objetivo foi verificar a existência de uma relação entre as variáveis de retorno e o volume monetário vendido das ações. Em ambos os modelos, os parâmetros estimados para as variáveis de retorno das ações foram interpretados como um coeficiente de disposição, sendo que a proposição desse coeficiente consistiu na principal contribuição da pesquisa. Os resultados dos modelos estimados trouxeram evidências de que a teoria perspectiva parece permear o processo decisório dos gestores dos fundos analisados. Já no caso da hipótese de que o efeito disposição é decorrente do viés da reversão à média, não foi possível corroborá-la com base nos resultados aqui relatados. / The disposition effect, originally proposed by Shefrin and Statman (1985), predicts that investors tend to sell winning stocks too soon and ride losing stocks too long. Despite the wide range of research evidence about this issue, the reasons that lead investors to act this way is still subject to much controversy between rational and behavioral explanations. In this thesis, the main goal was to test two competing behavioral motivations to justify the disposition effect: prospect theory and mean reversion bias. To achieve this goal, an analysis of monthly transactions for a sample of 51 Brazilian stock funds from 2002 to 2008 was conducted. The analysis involved the estimation of two regression models with qualitative dependent variable. The first one consisted of a binary logit model whose purpose was to set the probability of a manager to realize a capital gain or loss as a function of the stock return. The second one was an ordered logit model whose objective was to verify the existence of a relationship between stock returns and the monetary volume sold. In both models, the estimated parameters for the stock return variables were interpreted as a disposition coefficient and the proposition of this coefficient was the main contribution of the research. The results of the estimated models brought evidence that prospect theory seems to guide the decision making process of the managers of the analyzed funds. The hypothesis that the disposition effect is due to mean reversion bias could not be confirmed based on the results reported here.

Abstract This thesis investigates a set of equity market phenomena associated with investors' trading activity, using a comprehensive Finnish Central Securities Depository (FCSD) database that records practically all trades by Finnish investors. This database enables us to classify a large number of heterogeneous investors using both economic and institutional characteristics. The first essay classifies investors by trading activity. It analyzes trading styles of active and passive investors during the boom in technology stocks 1997–2000. We find that the herding tendency of active investors grew monotonically, year by year. Particularly large active investors used momentum and growth strategies. Moreover, buy pressures of active investors were positively related to contemporaneous daily returns. Passive investors, on the other hand, herd very strongly and their trading exhibited a contrarian style throughout the sample period. The second essay focuses on the relation between day trading of individual investors and intraday stock price volatility. I find a strong positive relation between the individual investors' day trades and volatility for actively day traded stocks. This finding suggests that day trading tends to increase volatility and/or day traders tend to become more active on the days of high volatility. The third essay tests the theoretical proposition of Amihud and Mendelson (1986) that investors hold assets with higher bid-ask spreads for longer periods. We measure holding periods of individual investors directly and find that they are positively related to spreads. The models control for a variety of other stock characteristics (e.g. value vs. growth orientation) and investors' attributes (e.g. gender) affecting holding periods. The fourth essay studies how both individual and institutional investors with different levels of capital gains and losses react to earnings announcements. I find that both sign and magnitude of capital gains affect individual investors' abnormal trading volumes. Individual investors are less prone to sell when they are carrying loses rather than gains. Furthermore, they react less to earnings announcements when capital gains or losses are large (over 20%). Taken together these findings provide support for prospect theory. Institutional investors appear to be less affected by psychological factors underlying prospect theory.

Doctor of Philosophy / Security Studies Interdepartmental Program / Donald J. Mrozek / From 1989 to 1999, the US had an opportunity to end its rivalry with Russia. However, a “loss aversion heuristic” dominated the decision-making processes of George Bush and Bill Clinton resulting in policies that provoked Russian fears of encirclement. This “loss aversion heuristic” manifested in four key security decisions: the reunification of Germany within NATO, NATO expansion to newly independent states, the Balkans interventions, and the nuclear non-proliferation regime. Although initially suspicious of Gorbachev, Bush eventually pursued a policy of supporting his reforms. However, as the administration came to terms with the inevitability of German reunification and increased European integration as outlined in the Single European Act of 1987, worries about the US leadership role in Europe emerged. By the fall of 1989, Bush backed German reunification to bolster pro-NATO political parties in Germany. As he assumed the presidency in 1993, Clinton wanted to increase financial assistance to Russia. However, when it came to security issues, Clinton’s fear of losing democratic gains in Eastern Europe to an emerging Russian nationalist movement made him less conciliatory to Russia. Despite Yeltsin’s dismay, Clinton pushed for NATO’s enlargement to protect the newly independent states. The same “loss aversion heuristic” was in play with the NATO interventions in the Balkans in 1995 and 1998. Criticisms of NATO’s ineffectiveness at preventing genocide on the continent called into question the necessity of a European security organization that could not provide security. Even though the interventions cemented a continued rivalry with Russia, the US backed them as a means of protecting the relevance of NATO. These decisions had implications to the US policy of protecting the nuclear non-proliferation regime. Instead of securing a nuclear security partner, US policy contributed to Russians selling technology to rogue regimes, and they resisted US attempts to create an Anti-Ballistic Missile Defense (ABM) system in Eastern Europe. In this way, US policy success in securing NATO resulted in decreased nuclear security. In the first three security decisions, the US overestimated the probability of loss making them unable to consider a more cooperative posture vis-à-vis Russian security concerns. The result of this loss aversion was the protection of NATO and the loss of cooperation on the nuclear non-proliferation regime.

The ability of auditors to detect fraud, including intentional material misstatements in earnings, remains key to the credibility of audit firms and confidence in capital markets. The PCAOB concludes from its most recent inspections of public company audits that auditors often fail to assess and respond to risks of material misreporting by management. In a behavioral experiment, this study concludes that auditors can increase sensitivity to management motivation to misreport by actively seeking to transform identified risk factors focused on the organization, into factors focused on top managers, and to evaluate whether these manager-focused risk factors represent incentives for personal gain or pressures to avoid a personal loss on the managers. Currently, auditing standards use incentive and pressure as interchangeable constructs, but auditors in this study assess pressure on managers to avoid a loss as a greater risk than an incentive to managers to attain a gain. Results also demonstrate that auditors will be made more sensitive to fraudulent financial reporting risk when focusing on pressure on top managers, than they will be by engaging in a traditional process of assessing total fraud risk based on the three fraud triangle elements. This study is the first to propose a theoretical explanation for why prior studies reflect auditor insensitivity to organizational level fraud risk factors. This study is also the first to enhance knowledge about auditor risk assessment and decision-making through the application of prospect theory and through disaggregation of one of the three elements of the fraud triangle model, by differentiating between incentive and pressure for misreporting earnings.

Prediction markets provide a promising approach for future event prediction. Most existing prediction market approaches are based on auction mechanisms. Despite their theoretical appeal and success in various application settings, these mechanisms suffer from several major drawbacks. First, opinions from experts and amateurs are treated equally. Second, continuous attention from participants is assumed. Third, such mechanisms are subject to various forms of market manipulation. To alleviate these limitations, we propose to employ the classic fixed odds betting as an alternative prediction market mechanism. We build a structural model based on a belief-decision framework as the event probability estimator. This belief-decision framework models bettors' beliefs with mixed beta distributions and bettors' decisions with prospect theory. A maximum likelihood approach is applied to estimate the model parameters. We conducted experiments on three real-world betting datasets to evaluate our proposed approach. Experimental results show that fixed odds betting based prediction outperforms the reduced form models based on odds and betting results, and achieves a comparable performance with auction-based prediction markets. The results suggest the possibility of employing fixed odds betting as a prediction market in a variety of application contexts where the assumptions made by auction-based approaches do not hold.

No description available.

Bitcoin was established as an independent digital currency. Today, Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency and the currency has had an exponential growth in development and usage. Today’s standing point regarding this revolutionary currency in society is therefore interesting to investigate in relation to the traditional fiat currency. To determine whether Bitcoin is a comparable means of payment in relation to already established fiat currencies, it is important to look at different factors. The factors considered in the study are relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, observability and the perceived risk. The study shows that relative advantage, observability and the perceived risk are factors that statistically influenced the attitude to adopt Bitcoin as a means of payment. Relative advantage and observability proved to have a positive effect on Bitcoin. The perceived risk gave rise to individuals not being willing to accept Bitcoin as a means of payment. The qualitative data has given the study reasons to believe that all factors can influence the attitude to adopting Bitcoin as a means of payment.

Background: Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are two types of corporate takeover strategy, that is widely used for strengthening and maintaining a firm competitive advantage in both domestic and global markets. Where the common motives behind M&A, is to achieve business expansion through synergy, or to acquire an existing external technology/product outside of a firm's own operational territory. As the world has entered an era of information and globalization, where innovation seems to prosper and different industry markets have become ever more integrated on a global scale, not least in the software industry. Hence, more firms have resorted to M&A in order to survive in a modern competitive market. For example, to capture more market shares, boost productivity, cut development costs, improve investment returns, etc. Nevertheless, the integration process of M&A carries lots of risks, where there is lots of different factors that needs to be considered and discussed before adopting M&A strategies. Such as, what industry are the involving firm operating in, which country are the involving firm located in, and what economic impacts can be triggered by M&A announcements. However, there are currently lack of literatures investigating the economic impacts of M&A announcements across different industries. That is, depending on if the firms are operating within or outside of the same industry, the economic impacts of the M&A announcement might differ. Objectives: The objective of this thesis is to analyze the market reactions generated from M&A announcements, and determine if the economic impacts will be greater if a software target firm is merged/acquired by a software or non-software acquiring firm. Methods: A quantitative statistical event study has been used as the main methodology in this thesis. Which is a standard method to analyze market reaction, that is in this case represented by financial stock market data. Following the event study, a multiple regression analysis was conducted in order to explain the event study, by examine the economic impact on the abnormal return derived from M&A announcements. Results: The result from the event study disclosed that target firms tends to experience more positive abnormal returns, while acquiring firms will experience negative abnormal returns during M&A announcements. The results of the multiple regression analysis, revealed various significant variables that has high explanatory power to the abnormal return. Conclusions: Based on the empirical results, the greatest economic impact could be identified during an M&A announcement that involves a cooperative partnerships deals between software target firms and non-software acquiring firms. Furthermore, acquiring firms tends to offer a higher premium to target firms during M&A transactions. This in turn indicates that acquiring firms will statistically receive less abnormal returns compared to target firms. Delimitations: Due to the wide-ranging scope of an event study that has many diverse adoptions areas to explore, the author decided to make some demarcations in this thesis. In particular, this thesis will be focusing on analyzing stock price movements prior and during M&A announcements. In addition, certain factors/variables that can potentially generate a significant economic impact during M&A announcements will be investigated. Hence, other aspects that are related or may affect M&A transactions itself, will scarcely be discussed or even excluded from this study.

To improve our understanding of offshoring and how it is evolving, salient ideas from both institutional and prospect theories are utilized to build a more descriptive model of how decisions are made to (re)direct foreign investment into offshored activities. Careful examinations of the offshoring programs in India and Mexico reveal that they took different investment trajectories during the past decade that can be aptly explained by this integrative model. The primary information used to measure the population trends of offshoring firms in India and Mexico comes from proprietary data sources for each country that issue annual reports on the number of operators in their respective offshoring sectors, that is, services and manufacturing.