This study aims to identify risk factors among young boys that might lead to criminal behavior and actions. The study is based on four books, written by former criminals, a lawyer that has been working with the cold shooting cases in Sweden and two reporters from the exposed areas. By reading the books we could identify similar risk factors among the participants in the books that have got their story told. Since social worker's job is to help prevent criminal behavior among youth and young children by identifying the risk factors, we thought that this study could be helpful. The books produce important knowledge from reality. The study is divided into seven different themes in which risk factors can be found. Those are risk factors related to firearm-related violence, risk factors within the individuals, the families, school, socioeconomic status, substance use and social capital. First the study presents previous scientific studies, in the same seven themes, and then they are put together with the new findings from the books. From this study we can also find that the risk factors are influenced by each other, and that individuals are more likely to have several risk factors if they already have one. Depending on how the individuals identify and manage the risk factors, it is different how much they are affected by it. A risk factor that one individual has, does not have to be a risk factor for another individual. Due to this, social workers have to pay attention to every individual youth and consider their situation regarding risk factors for criminal behavior.

The subject matter of the study is subjective risk picture as a component of risk culture. The object matter of the study is risk as a psychological phenomenon. Graduation qualification work consists of an introduction, three chapters, conclusions, a list of references (80 sources) and applications: forms of applied techniques, examples of dendograms. The volume of the master's thesis is 137 pages, which include 10 figures and 11 tables. The introduction reveals the urgency of the chosen research problem, the level of development of the problem, the purpose and objectives of the study are established, the subject and object of the study is determined, a working hypothesis is formulated, methods, methods and an empirical basis are determined, as well as the research stages. The first chapter includes a review of foreign and domestic literature on the topic of research, the psychological aspects of risk and risk behavior described in the scientific literature and research. The sections devoted to the peculiarities of the phenomenon of risk, the connection of representations at the conscious and unconscious level are presented. Conclusions on the first chapter are the results of studying the theoretical material. The second chapter is devoted to methods and methods of research, includes a description of the general principles of the phenomenological method, psychosemantic approaches in the study of consciousness and personality, as well as a description of questioning techniques. The conclusions of Chapter 2 substantiate the choice of the main methods and techniques for conducting the study. The third chapter is devoted to the empirical part of the study. It includes the characteristics of the procedure of the study, selected methods and results obtained after applying the techniques. As the main tool, the "Semantic differential method" was used, the test questionnaire of A.G. Shmeleva "Study of the propensity to take risks"; test-questionnaire "Self-assessment of propensity to extreme-risk behavior (M. Tsukerman); test-questionnaire "Readiness for risk" (AM Schubert); Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire. The chapter presents the results of a study of factor, cluster, and correlation analysis. The findings of Chapter 3 are the main results of the empirical study. In conclusion, brief results of the theoretical and empirical parts of the work are given, as well as conclusions on the working hypothesis. / Предмет исследования: субъективная картина риска как составляющая рискологической культуры. Объект исследования: риск как психологическое явление. Выпускная квалификационная работа состоит из введения, трех глав, выводов, списка литературы (80 источников) и приложений: бланки прикладных методик, примеры дендограмм. Объем магистерской диссертации составляет 137 страниц, включая 10 рисунков и 11 таблиц. Введение раскрывает актуальность выбранной проблемы исследования, уровень развития проблемы, устанавливаются цель и задачи исследования, определяется предмет и объект исследования, формулируется рабочая гипотеза, определяются методы, методики и эмпирическая база, а также этапы исследования. Первая глава включает обзор зарубежной и отечественной литературы по теме исследования, психологические аспекты риска и рискованного поведения, описанные в научной литературе и исследованиях. Представлены разделы, посвященные особенности феномена риска, связи представлений на осознанном и бессознательном уровне. В выводах по первой главе представлены результаты изучения теоретического материала. Вторая глава посвящена методам и методикам исследования, включает в себя описание общих принципов феноменологического метода, психосемантических подходов в исследовании сознания и личности, а также описание опросных методик. Выводы по 2 главе обосновывают выбор основных методов и методик для проведения исследования. Третья глава посвящена эмпирической части исследования. Она, включает в себя характеристику процедуры исследования, выбранные методики и результаты, полученные после применения методик. В качестве основного инструментария был использован «Метод семантического дифференциала», тест-опросник А.Г. Шмелева «Исследование склонности к риску»; тест-опросник «Самооценки склонности к экстремально-рискованному поведению (М.Цукерман); тест-опросник «Готовность к риску» (А.М. Шуберта); Мельбурнский опросник принятия решений. В главе представлены результаты исследования факторного, кластерного и корреляционного анализа. Выводы главы 3 являются основными результатами эмпирического исследования. В заключении приведены краткие результаты теоретической и эмпирической частей работы, а также выводы относительно рабочей гипотезы.

We develop a risk factor model based on data from a large number of portfolios spanning multiple asset classes. The risk factors are selected based on economic theory through an analysis of the asset holdings, as well as statistical tests. As many assets have limited historical data available, we implement and analyse the impact of regularisation to handle sparsity. Based on the factor model, two parametric methods for calculating Value-at-Risk (VaR) for a portfolio are developed: one with constant volatility and one with a CCC-GARCH volatility updating scheme. These methods are evaluated through backtesting on daily and weekly returns of a selected set of portfolios whose contents reflect the larger majority well. A historical data approach for calculating VaR serves as a benchmark model. We find that under daily returns, the historical data method outperforms the factor models in terms of VaR violation rates. None yield independent violations however. Under weekly returns, both factor models produce more accurate violation rates than the historical data model, with the CCC-GARCH model also yielding independent VaR violations for almost all portfolios due to its ability to adjust up VaR estimates in periods of increased market volatility. We conclude that if weekly VaR estimates are acceptable, tailored risk factor models provide accurate measures of portfolio risk. / Vi bygger en riskfaktormodell givet en stor mängd portföljer innehållande flera olika typer av tillgångar. Riskfaktorerna väljs ut baserat på ekonomisk teori genom en analys av portföljernas innehåll samt genom statistiska test. Eftersom många tillgångar har en liten mängd historisk data tillgänglig implementerar vi och analyserar effekterna av regularisering i faktorregressionen. Två parametriska metoder för att beräkna Value-at-Risk (VaR) utvecklas baserat på faktormodellen: en med konstant volatilitet och en med volatilitetsuppdatering genom CCC-GARCH. Metoderna utvärderas med bakåttestning på daglig och veckovis avkastning från utvalda portföljer vars innehåll reflekterar den större majoriteten. En historisk data-baserad metod för att beräkna VaR används som referensmodell. Under daglig avkastning överträffar historisk data-modellen faktormodellerna med avseende på frekvensen av VaR-överträdelser. Ingen modell resulterar dock i oberoende överträdelser. Under veckovis avkastning å andra sidan ger båda faktormodellerna mer exakta överträdelsefrekvenser än historisk data-modellen, där faktormodellen med CCC-GARCH också ger oberoende överträdelser för nästan alla portföljer, tack vare modellens förmåga att justera upp VaR-estimaten i perioder av högre volatilitet på marknaden. Sammanfattningsvis ger skräddarsydda riskfaktormodeller goda riskestimat, givet att det är acceptabelt med veckovisa beräkningar av VaR.

Problématique. Le tabagisme est le facteur de risque le plus important de cancer du poumon, cependant, d'autres facteurs comme les combinaisons de prédispositions génétiques, d'expositions environnementales et d'autres facteurs liés au mode de vie peuvent également contribuer au risque. Cette étude vise à déterminer les associations entre les expositions professionnelles courantes et le risque de cancer du poumon. Méthodes. Une étude cas-cohorte nichée dans l'étude CARTaGENE a été utilisée. Les cas comprenaient tous les participants avec un diagnostic incident de cancer du poumon de 2009 à 2016 (n= 147). Au départ, une sous-cohorte de 1 032 individus a été échantillonnée. La matrice d'exposition professionnelle du Canada (CANJEM) a été utilisée pour déterminer les expositions professionnelles de l’emploi occupé le plus longtemps par les participants. Vingt-huit agents avec ≥ 5 cas exposés ont été retenus pour les analyses. Différents modèles de régression logistique multivariée avec des estimateurs de variance robuste ont été utilisés pour estimer les ratios des côtes (RC) et les intervalles de confiance (IC) à 95% pour les associations entre chaque agent et le risque de cancer du poumon tout en contrôlant pour les facteurs de risque établis. Résultats. Un risque accru de cancer du poumon a été observé chez les personnes exposées aux cendres (RC = 4.42; IC 95%: 1.75-11.15), au sulfate de calcium (RC = 4.13; IC 95%: 1.20-14.20), au chlorure d'hydrogène (RC = 3.79; 95% IC: 1.07-13.41), au formaldéhyde (RC = 3.73; IC 95%: 1.51-9.19), aux fumées de cuisson (RC = 2.92; IC 95%: 1.33-6.42), aux alcanes (RC = 4.33; IC 95%: 1.41-13.29), aux aldéhydes aliphatiques (RC = 3.94; IC 95%: 1.41-10.98) et aux agents de nettoyage (RC = 2.60; IC 95%: 1.50-4.52). Une diminution de l'incidence du cancer du poumon a été observée chez les participants exposés au monoxyde de carbone (RC = 0.29; IC 95%: 0.12-0.74) et aux hydrocarbures aromatiques polycycliques de pétrole (RC = 0.18; IC 95%: 0.05-0.60). Conclusion. Nos résultats soutiennent le rôle de plusieurs agents professionnels, pour lesquels nous avons des connaissances limitées, dans la contribution au risque de cancer du poumon. / Background. Smoking is the strongest risk factor for lung cancer; however, other factors like the combinations of genetic predisposition, environmental exposures, and other lifestyle factors may also contribute to risk. This study aims to determine associations between prevalent occupational exposures and lung cancer risk. Methods. A case-cohort design was nested within the CARTaGENE study. Cases included all participants with an incident diagnosis of lung cancer from 2009-2016 (n=147). A sub-cohort of 1,032 individuals was sampled at baseline. The Canadian Job Exposure Matrix was used to determine occupational exposures in participants’ longest-held job. Twenty-eight agents with ≥5 exposed cases were retained for analysis. Separate multivariable logistic regression models with robust variance estimators were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between each agent and lung cancer risk while controlling for established risk factors. Results. Increased lung cancer risk was found among those exposed to ashes (OR=4.42; 95% CI: 1.75-11.15), calcium sulfate (OR=4.13; 95% CI: 1.20-14.20), hydrogen chloride (OR=3.79; 95% CI: 1.07-13.41), formaldehyde (OR=3.73; 95% CI: 1.51-9.19), cooking fumes (OR=2.92; 95% CI: 1.33-6.42), alkanes (OR=4.33; 95% CI:1.41-13.29), aliphatic aldehydes (OR=3.94; 95% CI: 1.41-10.98), and cleaning agents (OR=2.60; 95% CI: 1.50-4.52). A decrease in lung cancer incidence was found among participants exposed to carbon monoxide (OR=0.29; 95% CI:0.12-0.74) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from petroleum (OR=0.18; 95% CI: 0.05-0.60). Conclusion. Our findings support the role of several occupational agents, for which we have limited knowledge, in contributing to lung cancer risk.

No description available.

Supervisor: Nina Lindén Åkerlund Examiner: Staffan Bengtsson This study aims to investigate the impact of screen use on children and young adults. Previous research regarding screen use among children and young adults is compiled in a literature review in the form of a scoping review. The results have been thematically analyzed with the help of the SOC-theory (sense of coherence) and ecological systems theory. The results show that screen use has both positive and negative aspects that can be understood through factors of risk and protection which are prevalent on individual, group and societal levels. The study contributes to the understanding of the impact that screen use has on children and young adults and is particularly relevant in relation to social work.

Anhand der Daten aus der "Multizentrische Allergie Studie" (MAS) wird der natürliche Verlauf allergischer Erkrankungen und die Zusammenhänge unterschiedlicher Expositionen auf die Entwicklung von Allergien zu untersucht, um daraus verbesserte therapeutische und präventive Maßnahmen ableiten zu können. Methode MAS ist eine prospektive multizentrische Geburtskohortenstudie. 1990 wurden in fünf deutschen Städten 1314 Neugeborenen und deren Familien eingeschlossen (499 Atopie-Risikokinder und 815 zufällig ausgewählte Kinder ohne Atopierisiko). Symptome und Erkrankungen, die Lebenssituation der Familie, Risikofaktoren und Labordaten wurden jährlich über 7 Jahre erhoben. Die Datenanalyse erfolgte mittels multivariater Regressionsmodelle. Ergebnisse und Fazit Für das Serum-Gesamt-IgE wurden populationsbasierte Perzentilen für die ersten sechs Lebensjahre berechnet, die als "Normwerte-Tabellen" interpretiert werden können. Eine allergische Sensibilisierung entwickelt sich hauptsächlich während der ersten Lebensjahre. Am frühesten bilden sich Sensibilisierungen gegen Nahrungsmittelallergene aus, nach dem dritten Geburtstag überwiegen Sensibilisierungen gegen Inhalationsallergene mit Prävalenzen von 10% bis 20%. Als signifikante Risikofaktoren für eine Sensibilisierung erwiesen sich die Exposition gegenüber Umwelt(schad)stoffen wie dem Tabakrauch (OR=2,3), latexhaltigen Materialien in Krankenhäusern (OR=2,4) und verschiedenen Allergenen. Der stärkste Zusammenhang zeigte sich zwischen einer Exposition mit Innenraumallergenen und einer Sensibilisierung gegen diese Allergentypen. Weitere Risikofaktoren waren die Bereitschaft des Organismus, sehr früh in den ersten 2 Lebensjahren erhöhte Niveaus von IgE im Serum auszubilden, und eine atopische Prädisposition. Als wichtigste Risikofaktoren für die Entwicklung einer allergischen Rhinitis erwiesen sich das männliche Geschlecht (OR=2,4), keine weiteren Geschwister (OR=2,0), eine Sensibilisierung gegen Nahrungsmittel (OR=3,3), eine atopischen Dermatitis (OR=2,5) und eine atopische Familienanamnese (OR=3,0). Die prädiktive Wertigkeit einzelner Faktoren wurde gegeneinander abgegrenzt und das Atopierisiko bei unterschiedlichem Auftreten einzelner Prädiktoren berechnet. Trotz der guten prädiktiven Eigenschaften der Prädiktoren "hohes spezifisches IgE gegen Hühnerei" oder "dauerhafter Nachweis von IgE gegen Nahrungsmittel im Kleinkindalter" bedeutet die Verwendung dieser Parameter, dass eine Prädiktion frühestens 1-2 Jahre nach Geburt und erst nach wiederholter Bestimmung der IgE-Antikörper möglich ist. Auch wenn weiterhin Forschungsbedarf zur Allergieprävention besteht und die Wirksamkeit von einigen präventiven Maßnahmen noch systematisch evaluiert werden muss, sind auf einzelnen Feldern konkrete Handlungsanweisungen zur Prävention möglich. / Using data from the German Multicenter Allergy Study (MAS), we investigated the natural course of atopic diseases and the relationship of varied exposures to the development of allergies in order to develop more effective therapeutic and preventative treatment strategies. Methods The MAS is a prospective multicenter birth cohort study. In the year 1990, a total of 1314 newborns and their families from five German cities were included in the study, including 499 infants at high risk for atopy and 815 randomly selected infants with no known risk factors for atopy. Over a period of seven years, data was collected annually regarding symptoms, illnesses, family living situation and environment, risk factors, and laboratory tests. For data analysis we used multivariate regression models. Results and Conclusions From birth to the age of six, total serum IgE levels were calculated annually as population-based percentiles, and can thus be interpreted as a table of standard values. Allergic sensitization generally occurred within the first few years of life. Sensitization to food allergens occurred earliest, whereas sensitization to aeroallergens predominated after the age of three (with a prevalence of 10-20%). Significant risk factors for allergic sensitization included exposure to environmental pollutants/substances such as tobacco smoke (OR=2.3) or latex-containing medical products (OR=2.4). With regard to the relationship between exposure and subsequent sensitization to a specific allergen, the strongest correlation was observed with indoor allergens. Other risk factors included the early development of elevated serum IgE levels within the first year of life and an atopic predisposition. The most important risk factor for the development of allergic rhinitis was male gender (OR=2.4), no siblings (OR=2.0), sensitization to a food allergen (OR=3.3), atopic dermatitis (OR=2.5), and a family history of allergic disease (OR=3.0). The predictive value of individual factors was determined and the risk of developing atopic diseases calculated for individual predictors. In spite of the good predictive qualities of the factors " high values of specific IgE to hen's egg" and "long-lasting sensitization to food allergens during infancy", reliable prediction using these parameters can only be made 1-2 years after birth at the earliest and following a repeated measurement of IgE antibodies. There is still need for further research in allergy prevention, and the effectiveness of a number of preventative measures has yet to be evaluated in a systematic manner. Nevertheless, the results of this and other studies can already help physicians develop clearer, evidence-based strategies in the prevention of allergic disease.

In der Literatur finden sich zahlreiche Hinweise dafür, daß die hämorheologischen Meßgrößen wie Hämatokrit, Erythrozytenaggregation und Erythrozytenrigidität, sowie Vollblut- und Plasmaviskosität bei Patienten mit Atherosklerose bzw. bereits bei Personen mit kardiovaskulären Risikofaktoren pathologisch verändert sind. Offen ist dagegen derzeit die Frage, ob derartige Veränderungen reversibel sind. Die vorliegende Arbeit sollte deshalb der Frage nachgehen, ob sich im Verlauf einer stationären Anschlußheilbehandlung (AHB) neben einer Normalisierung klassisch kardiovaskulärer Risikofaktoren auch positive Veränderungen rheologischer Parameter beobachten lassen. Dazu wurden 64 männliche und weibliche Patienten zu Beginn und am Ende ihrer vierwöchigen kardiologischen AHB untersucht. Es wurden der Blutdruck, Gewicht und Gesamtcholesterin, sowie die hämorheologischen Parameter Plasmaviskosität, Hämatokrit und Fibrinogen bestimmt. Bis auf geschlechtsspezifische Hämatokritwertunterschiede wurden keine statistisch signifikanten Differenzen der rheologischen Werte im Gruppenvergleich der verschiedenen Patientengruppen gefunden. Im Verlauf der AHB kam es neben einer statistisch signifikanten Reduktion klassisch kardiovaskulärer Risikofaktoren zu einer statistisch signifikanten, von koronarer Herzkrankheit und Risikofaktoren unabhängigen Verminderung der Plasmaviskosität und des Hämatokrits. Keine statistisch signifikanten Änderungen zeigten sich diesbezüglich des Fibrinogenspiegels. Desweiteren wurden einige schwach positive Korrelationen zwischen der Änderung klassischer Risikofaktoren und der Änderung hämorheologischer Faktoren aufgezeigt. Diese Ergebnisse bestätigen Zusammenhänge zwischen kardiovaskulären Risikofaktoren und hämorheologischen Meßgrößen. Sie implizieren weiterhin, daß es im Verlauf einer kardiovaskulären Rehabilitation nicht nur zu der erhofften Reduktion diverser Risikofaktoren kommt, sondern daß auch hämorheologische Kenngrößen günstig beeinflußt werden. / The fact that hemorheological variables such as hematocrit, red cell flexibility and aggregability, plasma and blood viscosity are pathologically altered in the presence of cardiovascular risk factors and diseases is evidenced by a large and growing amount of data. The question whether and how such abnormalities might be reversible is still largely unanswered. This investigation was therefore aimed at determining the hemorheological effects of a 4-week cardiovascular rehabilitation programme in 64 male and female patients with cardiovascular disease and/or risk factors. Blood pressure, body weight and total cholesterol were measured together with hemorheological parameters such as plasma viscosity, hematocrit and fibrinogen. With the exception of gender-specific hematocrit differences, no significant differences were found regarding rheological values between various groups. In the course of the rehabilitation programme, a reduction of conventional cardiovascular risk factors was noted and a statistically significant reductions of plasma viscosity and hematocrit were found which were independent of coronary heart disease. No significant changes were seen in fibrinogen levels. Moreover, a weak positive correlation was observed between conventional risk factors and changes in hemorheological variables. These results confirm the links between conventional risk factors and hemorheological measurements. They also imply that, during a rehabilitation programme, a reduction of various risk factors may be associated with positive changes in hemorheological variables. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated a change in some hemorheological variables in the course of a complex rehabilitation programme for cardiac patients.

Exploring the resilience construct is highly relevant for the field of learning disabilities. Resilience is a dynamic process of adaptation that involves interactions between a range of risk and protective factors. This research presents recent learning disability and resilience literature, focussing on the risk and protective factors in the lives of those with learning difficulties. Children with a learning disability often have associated emotional, behavioural and social difficulties that may become major obstacles to positive future outcomes. Historically little attention has been paid to the experiences of mothers of children with a learning disability and how the mother-child relationship may or may not foster the development of resilience in the learning disabled child. This research explores the issue within a qualitative framework / Educational Studies / M. Ed. (Guidance and Counselling)

Abortion and severe pre-eclampsia/eclampsia remain the major causes of maternal mortality in Zimbabwe. Based on this problem, factors associated with maternal mortality due to abortion and severe pre-eclampsia/eclampsia were investigated to improve pregnancy outcomes. Cases and controls were selected from 4895 abortion and 318 severe preeclampsia/ eclampsia obstetric records to conduct a retrospective case-control study. Significant risk factors identified for reducing maternal mortality due to postabortion complications included the administration of oxytocic drugs and evacuations of the uterus whilst anaemia and sepsis apparently reduced these women's chances of survival. No significant factors could be identified which influenced maternal deaths among women suffering from severe pre-eclampsia/eclampsia. Magnesium sulphate was not routinely administered, as recommended internationally. In both groups, cases apparently received better reported quantitative care than controls. Recommendations based on this research report include improved midwifery education and in-service training, regular audits of patients' records and changed policies for managing these conditions more effectively in Zimbabwe. / Health Studies / D. Litt. et Phil. (Advanced Nursing Sciences)