Submitted by Denísio Liberato (denisioliberato@bb.com.br) on 2012-07-23T15:29:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_versão_final_23072012.pdf: 1132720 bytes, checksum: 866d5e254e7f90dedcaaf1e8e4ac25ab (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2012-07-23T15:38:45Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_versão_final_23072012.pdf: 1132720 bytes, checksum: 866d5e254e7f90dedcaaf1e8e4ac25ab (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-07-23T15:45:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_versão_final_23072012.pdf: 1132720 bytes, checksum: 866d5e254e7f90dedcaaf1e8e4ac25ab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-06-22 / O objetivo central desta tese é colaborar com a literatura de finanças internacionais, abordando a discussão sobre os limites 'toleráveis' de endividamento aos quais os governos estão submetidos, bem como, sobre os fatores que afetam a forma como os países denominam suas dívidas no mercado internacional. A análise dos limites de endividamento é baseada num modelo onde crises de dívida auto-realizáveis podem ocorrer quando o nível de endividamento encontra-se em determinado intervalo. Uma vez nesta região, a dívida pode (ou não) ser rolada e, caso os credores não concedam novos empréstimos, a crise torna-se, de fato, uma profecia auto-realizável. Os resultados encontrados indicam que o limite de endividamento, além de bastante persistente, é muito dependente da razão dívida/PIB, bem como, dos históricos de inflação, crises bancárias e de defaults (ou reestruturações) de dívida soberana. Posteriormente, é feita uma aplicação do modelo estimado aos países da periferia do euro, na qual os resultados sugerem que países como Portugal e Grécia, mesmo após a adoção da moeda única, apresentam dificuldades em administrar os seus níveis de endividamento. Em conjunto, os resultados apresentados sugerem que quanto pior o histórico macroeconômico, menor será a capacidade do país 'tolerar' dívidas. Em relação à denominação da dívida, o estudo procura identificar em que medida a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio real efetiva, controlada por diversos fatores, impacta a forma como países se endividam no mercado internacional. Os resultados indicam que a baixa volatilidade cambial é condição fundamental para que a moeda doméstica seja utilizada em transações internacionais. Além disso, porte econômico, estabilidade de regras, respeito aos contratos e ampla liquidez dos mercados financeiros domésticos, são fatores que contribuem para a aceitação de uma moeda nos contratos de dívida internacional. Evidências adicionais do estudo sugerem que a ampla liquidez internacional, observada principalmente nos anos 2000, foi incapaz de ampliar de maneira significativa o número de moedas utilizadas no mercado internacional de dívidas. Ainda em relação a este tema, a tese analisa os primeiros passos da economia brasileira no sentido de alongar o perfil da dívida pública interna, por intermédio da emissão de títulos denominados em reais no mercado internacional. / The aim of this dissertation is to collaborate with the international finance literature, addressing the debate on the "acceptable" sovereign debt limits debt, as well as addressing on debt denomination in the international market. The analysis of debt limits is based on a model in which self-fulfilling debt crises can occur when the debt level reaches a certain range. Once this range is reached, the debt may (or may not) be rolled over and, if creditors do not grant new loans, the crisis becomes, in fact, a self-fulfilling prophecy. The results indicate that the indebtedness limit, besides being persistent, depends highly on the debt/GDP ratio, as well as on historical inflation, banking crises and default (or restructuring) of sovereign debt. Subsequently, an application of the estimated model is made to peripheral countries of the Euro Zone. The results suggest that countries like Portugal and Greece, even after the adoption of the single currency, have difficulties in managing their debt levels. The results also suggest that the worse the macroeconomic history, the lower the country's ability "to tolerate" debt. In relation to debt denomination, the study seeks to identify to what extent the volatility of real effective exchange rate, controlled by several factors, have an influence on how countries gain access to the international bond market. The results indicate that low exchange rate volatility is a fundamental condition for debt denominated in local currency in international markets. Moreover, the size of the economy, stability of regulations, enforcement of contracts and ample liquidity in domestic financial markets are factors that contribute to the acceptance of a currency in international debt contracts. Additional evidence of the study suggests that the broad international liquidity, mainly observed in the 2000s, was unable to expand significantly the number of currencies used in international debts. Still regarding this issue, the dissertation analyzes the first steps of the Brazilian economy in order to extend the profile of its public debt through the issuance of bonds denominated in Reais in the international market.

Dans ce travail, nous proposons des procédures de test paramétriques et nonparamétriques localement et asymptotiquement optimales au sens de Hajek et Le Cam, pour deux modèles de données de panel. Notre approche est fondée sur la théorie de Le Cam d'une part, pour obtenir les propriétés de normalité asymptotique, bases de la construction des tests paramétriques optimaux, et la théorie de Hajek d'autre part, qui, via un principe d'invariance, permet d'obtenir les procédures nonparamétriques.<p><p><p><p>Dans le premier chapitre, nous considérons un modèle à erreurs composées et nous nous intéressons au problème qui consiste à tester l'absence de l'effet individuel aléatoire. Nous<p>établissons la propriété de normalité locale asymptotique (LAN), ce qui nous permet de construire des procédures paramétriques localement et asymptotiquement optimales (“les plus stringentes”)<p>pour le problème considéré. L'optimalité de ces procédures est liée à la densité-cible f1. Ces propriétés d'optimalité sont hautement paramétriques puisqu'elles requièrent que la densité sous-jacente soit f1. De plus, ces procédures ne seront valides que si la densité-cible f1 et la densité sous-jacent g1 coincïdent. Or, en pratique, une spécification correcte de la densité sous-jacente g1 est non réaliste, et g1 doit être considérée comme un paramètre de nuissance. Pour éliminer cette nuisance, nous adoptons l'argument d'invariance et nous nous restreignons aux procédures fondées sur des statistiques qui sont mesurables par rapport au vecteur des rangs. Les tests que nous obtenons restent valide quelle que soit la densité sous-jacente et sont localement et asymptotiquement les plus stringents. Afin d'avoir des renseignements sur l'efficacité des tests<p>fondés sur les rangs sous différentes lois, nous calculons les efficacités asymptotiques relatives de ces tests par rapport aux tests pseudo-gaussiens, sous des densités g1 quelconques. Enfin, nous proposons quelques simulations pour comparer les performances des procédures proposées. <p><p><p><p>Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous considérons un modèle à erreurs composées avec autocorrélation d'ordre 1 et nous montrons que ce modèle jouit de la propriété LAN. A partir de ce résultat, nous construisons des tests optimaux, au sens local et asymptotique, pour trois problèmes de tests importants dans ce contexte :(a) test de l'absence d'effet individuel et d'autocorrélation; (b) test de l'absence d'effet individuel en présence d'une autocorrélation non<p>spécifiée; et (c) test de l'absence d'autocorrélation en présence d'un effet individuel non spécifié. Enfin, nous proposons quelques simulations pour comparer les performances des tests pseudogaussiens<p>et des tests classiques. / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This dissertation analyses the effects of current fisheries practices and management regulations of the green spiny lobster (Panulirus gracilis) in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Region (ETP). P. gracilis has reached a critical state in the ETP. Country-based studies report that between 60 and 98% of lobsters caught in the wild are under the minimum landing size (MLS). This means that spiny lobsters are being extracted before reproducing and contributing to the replenishment of interconnected populations. The recovery of green spiny lobster populations in the ETP and the future maintenance of a sustainable fishery will depend on effective management decisions and on taking in account environmental factors that influence the population dynamics of the lobsters. In the first study (Chapter 2), the B52 Spiny Lobster individual based simulation model was used for conducting a population viability analysis to quantify the effect of current fishing practices and the effect of varying management regulations on minimum landing size (MLS) and fishing effort. The best suit of regulations to maintain the highest abundance, production of offspring and catch is to protect juveniles and egged females, and to establish a MLS that assures the reproduction of individuals before being extracted. This study revealed regional variations, however the patterns and the causes for variation were not yet clear. This led to the next chapters in this dissertation. In Chapter 3, I used a meta-analysis to explore regional lobster variability by comparing published studies from the ETP. The objective was to identify patterns of variation related to geographic and environmental factors of the region that can inform the establishment and evaluation of coordinated regulations. Morphological relationships showed to be more variable at northern latitudes, where the mean annual sea surface temperatures are higher than at lower temperatures at the Equator. In terms of management, MLS regulations should be adapted accounting for the effect of sea surface temperature and its variation. Additionally, it was observed that monitoring methodologies are not standardized within the region and even in some cases, neither within countries. Furthermore, in most places monitoring of the spiny lobster fishery happens sporadically, only in Galapagos takes place every year. Identifying patterns of variations can improve the accuracy of prediction models which can help to explore, design, and apply more effective management measures, as well as promote regional coordination to support the recovery and maintenance of spiny lobsters. In Chapter 4, I contrast current Ecuadorian minimum landing size (MLS) regulation to lobster empirical measurements within Ecuador in order to recognize potential pitfalls for management enforcement. I used linear regression and multiple regression models with the objective of identifying potential relative size variations of the individuals caught in the wild over time and in the different fishing areas in Ecuador, as well as to analyse the effect of locality, sex, age and mean SST on the tail length/total length ratio. Morphological relations were significantly different among sexes, in time and by all sites. Most importantly, this study shows that current minimum size regulations are not applicable to all sites. Additionally, I found that water temperature has a significant effect on morphological relationship variations. However, it was not the main site-specific variable responsible for explaining such variations. In general, this work emphasizes the need for length data collection standardization and the consideration of temporal and spatial variation implications in national and regional fishery management planning, enforcement and evaluation.

The informal sector has emerged as an important sector in Africa where many countries are striving to attain Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) number 8 on decent work and economic growth. The presence of a growing number of individuals and firms in the informal sector in Africa and the need to attain SDG 8 through formalisation have reignited the debate on informality and its possible causes and effects on the growth trajectory of African economies. Empirical questions on the determinants of informality are still not adequately answered. One question which continues to generate a lot of debate and contrasting results is the relationship between the informal sector and corruption. Both informality and corruption have emerged as ‘twin challenges’ in Africa, with a far reaching impact on economic development. The relationship between the informal sector and corruption has been an inconclusive and a polemical issue in both academic and developmental discourse. From a theoretical perspective, the two can be substitutes or complements, but the exact nature of the relationship is not clear. The main objective of this study is to empirically investigate the relationship between the informal sector, corruption and economic development in Africa, over the period 2005 to 2015. The objective of the study was answered through two ways: theoretical and empirical methodology. In the theoretical methodology, a classical approach was applied. The classical theory suggests that in the presence of a market for corruption, corruption control can reduce the size of the informal sector through reducing the supply of corruption, thereby raising the price of corruption. The negative relationship between corruption control and the size of the informal sector is supported by the described empirical data for Africa. The results from descriptive statistics, in particular the scatter plots, demonstrate that control of corruption, government effectiveness and economic development as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI) are negatively associated with the size of the informal sector. The negative association between the control of corruption and the size of the informal sector entails that corruption increases the size of the informal sector. With regards to the empirical solution, the total population of 54 African countries was considered for the study. However, a panel of 46 countries was analyzed as the other eight countries, although considered together with the rest, were scientifically isolated from the panel due to data challenges. Robustness checks were carried out to check if estimates are not sensitive to sample size or region. Further, for purposes of this study, the sample was also divided into Southern and Eastern Africa, and Northern and Western Africa. Panel data was applied in order to account for both time and country-specific heterogeneity. The use of panel data allows one to study variability through comparability of the level of informality in countries such as Zimbabwe where the economy has remained largely informalised. Four panel estimators, namely, the Pooled Effects, Fixed Effects or Within Effects, Random Effects or GLS, and Dynamic Panel Model (Arrelano-Bond), were applied. Model specification tests identified the Fixed Effect Model as the most appropriate model. Hence, the discussed results are largely from the Fixed Effects Model. On measurement of informality, the study relied on the shadow economy estimates constructed by Medina and Schneider (2018) for 158 countries from 1991 to 2015. On corruption, the study used the Control of Corruption Index (COCO) published by the World Bank, in the Governance Index Report. Unlike previous studies which used GDP per capita only as a proxy for economic development, this study went a step further and used Human Development Index (𝐻𝐷𝐼) as a proxy for economic development. Profit tax as a percentage of GDP was also tested as a potential determinant of informality. The endogeneity of the corruption variable was corrected using an instrumental variable. The findings show that an improvement in the control of corruption or government effectiveness reduces the level of informality in Africa while, an increasing informal sector is a breeding ground for corruption. The two variables are complements or jointly determined. Countries with large underground economies possess high levels of corruption, and countries with high levels of corruption are associated with large underground economies. The complementarity of corruption and the size of underground economy implies that policies that target one of the two will also help in tackling the other. In addition, the results show that economic development reduces the magnitude of informality, while a larger informal sector today implies a bigger informal sector in the future. One of the findings of this study is that previous studies which applied GDP per capita as a measure of economic development largely underestimated the impact of economic development on the size of the informal sector. The findings of the study show that the negative association between the control of corruption and the size of the informal sector holds for both the Northern and Southern regions of Africa. The impact is however bigger in the Northern Region, as a marginal improvement in corruption control has a bigger impact in reducing the size of the informal sector compared to the Southern Region. The results from the study also show that the level of informality in a country has a memory. A bigger informal sector today is likely to propel the level of the informal sector in the future. The findings show that a growth of the informal sector by one percentage point today will increase the informal sector by about 0.185 percentage points in the following year. The results from time dummies also indicate that the size of the informal sector in Africa started to grow significantly during the financial crisis period in 2009. The main implication of these findings is that African countries can target one of the two in order to reduce both the size of the underground economy and corruption. The other implication is that a policy that targets curing one of the problems will have positive external effects in curing the other unintended problem. Furthermore, the findings imply that African countries with large underground economies may continue to experience growing informal economies due to lack of regulatory capacity and weak enforcement. Solving the two problems is a double hurdle for African countries. / Economics / D. Com. (Economics)

No description available.

No description available.

<p dir="ltr">An inquiry into the additionality of the income tax credit program for solar purchasing in Ohio, where aggregation electric purchasing programs exist.</p><p dir="ltr">In the State of Ohio, a unique feature of the electric market regulatory landscape permits local governments to become energy suppliers to their residents and small businesses through programs known as community choice aggregation (CCA). Some of these programs guarantee 100% renewable electricity to all enrollees. Concurrently, the federal government offers an income tax credit (ITC) for the purchase of a solar array. When policy incentives are offered, it is important to ensure they impact their target audience to act in ways that would not be observed in the scenario without the tax incentive. This is known as “additionality.” In the context of carbon emissions reduction goals, individuals who claim the ITC while already having 100% renewable electricity would violate additionality. In other words, these renewable aggregation programs may crowd out the benefits of the ITC. This paper seeks to assess the additionality of the ITC in the context of Ohio’s CCA program. The actual additionality can depend on whether renewable energy is already being supplied to the site that constructs a solar array. Hence, we study the relationship between CCA and solar adoption probability to determine whether tax incentives are additional. Using non-parametric survival analysis, panel data methods, and post-estimation simulations, this paper seeks to discern if additionality is violated using the ITC in areas where a supply of renewable energy is already guaranteed. We find that aggregation programs increase the probability of solar adoption and that on average, in Ohio, roughly $0.44 of every dollar spent on the income tax credit is non-additional. This will help policymakers determine the efficacy of funds allocated to their respective programs.</p>

In this study, a panel data set of flights made by employees at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Sweden is analyzed using generalized linear modeling approaches, with the aim to create a model with high predictive capability of the quarterly CO2 emission and the number of flights, for a year not included in the model estimation. A Zero-inflated Gamma regression model is fitted to the CO2 emission variable and a Zero-inflated Negative Binomial regression model is used for the number of flights. To build the models, cross-validation is performed with the observations from 2018 as the training set and the observations from the next year, 2019, as the test set. One at a time, the variable that best improves the prediction of the test set data (either as included in the count model or the zero-inflation model) is selected until an additional variable turns out insignificant on a 5% significance level in the estimated model. In addition to the variables in the data, three lags of the dependent variables (CO2 emission and flights) were included, as well as transformed versions of the continuous variables, and a random intercept each for the categorical variables indicating quarter and department at KTH, respectively. Neither model selected through the cross-validation process turned out to be particularly good at predicting the values for the upcoming year, but a number of variables were proven to have a statistically significant association with the respective dependent variable.

This research highlights the importance of considering the degree students’ integration into school classes when estimating school effects. Combining and using two different datasets collected before and after education reform in Taiwan, the study compares school effects under two different education systems in order to answer the question about the efficiency of education reform. I estimate multilevel growth models to assess how school environments affect changes in students’ initial and change rate of their academic performance across junior high school years. Besides, two-part random-effects models are also introduced into the analyses to testify how school environment influence adolescent performance in their high school enrollments. My results support and extend Blau’s structural theory, revealed that school contexts and school networks directly and indirectly influences students’ performance in their school classes and in their high school enrollments, suggesting students’ outcome are conditioning by the local structure, the school environments. However, through making more friends inside and outside school classes, students still have their own power to modify the environmental impacts on themselves. With respect to the comparisons of school effects on individuals’ performance under two different education systems in Taiwan, the decreasing peer influences and the decreasing significance of school networks indicate that the school effects gradually decline after the administration of education reform. One should note that simply a little change on education system might alter students, parents, and teachers’ behaviors. The decreasing peer effects and the decreasing school effects on students’ academic performance suggesting that students might change their behaviors on interacting with their friends and change their behaviors at schools in order to jostle higher education after education reform. The increasing cram schooling and the increasing significance of family SES support the inference that students modify their behaviors to come up against the education reform in Taiwan. These findings suggest the need for more panel datasets collected from the newly cohorts after education reform was administrated for a period and the need for more studies of education reform and school effects, to have more understanding about the mechanisms of school efficiency.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O objetivo principal desta dissertação é analisar os impactos da abertura comercial vista no Brasil no início da década de 1990 entre 1990 a 1996 na margem de lucro das indústrias de transformação passando por três padrões monetários diferentes (cruzeiro, cruzeiro real e real). A especificação e metodologia adotadas no trabalho são as de Goldar e Aggawal (2004), que fazem uma análise de dados em painel para efeitos fixos e randômicos para as indústrias de transformação indianas como um todo e, posteriormente, aplicando os mesmos testes separando os vinte e oito setores da indústria brasileira de transformação em setores de bens de capital e intermediários no primeiro grupo e bens de capital no segundo. Este trabalho ainda inclui esta metodologia aplicando, além das duas já citadas, o teste de mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO) para permitir uma melhor análise com três testes diferentes antes e depois de separar os setores por meio de variáveis explicativas como barreiras à importação, concentração industrial, participação salarial, produtividade do trabalho, representatividade setorial e variação na taxa de crescimento da produção do setor entre os anos. Conclui-se que o aumento observado na margem de lucro foi impactado significativamente pelas variáveis expostas acima e estes resultados são importantes para que possamos auferir de que forma impactaram positivamente ou contribuíram negativamente na margem de lucro auferida pela indústria brasileira de transformação entre 1990 e 1996.