Diese kumulative Dissertation besteht aus drei Abschnitten.                                 I. Geopolitics, Aid and Growth Wir untersuchen den Effekt kurzfristiger politischer Motive auf die Effektivität von Entwicklungshilfe. Dabei testen wir, ob der Effekt der Hilfe auf Wirtschaftswachstum reduziert wird durch den Anteil der Jahre während der Hilfsvergabe, die ein Land temporäres Mitglied des Sicherheitsrates der Vereinten Nationen war. Diese Mitgliedschaft sorgt für eine quasi zufällige Variation in der Höhe der vergebenen Hilfsgelder. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Zusammenhang zwischen Hilfe und Wachstum schwächer und niedriger ist für Hilfe, die während der temporären Mitgliedschaft vergeben wurde. Unsere zwei Schlussfolgerungen sind: Erstens, der Einfluss politischer Motive untergräbt die Effektivität der vergebenen Hilfsgelder. Zweitens, Variablen die politisches Interesse widerspiegeln sind ungeeignet als ökonometrische Instrumente für Entwicklungshilfe. Dies weckt Zweifel an einer großen Anzahl existierender Forschungsergebnisse. II. Is there a Home Bias in Sovereign Ratings? Kreditratingagenturen werden oftmals für angeblich verzerrte Länderratings kritisiert. Dieser Abschnitt diskutiert, wie das Heimatland einer Ratingagentur deren Ratingentscheidungen aufgrund polit-ökonomischer Einflüsse und kultureller Unterschiede beeinflussen kann. Mithilfe von Daten über neun Agenturen aus sechs unterschiedlichen Ländern testen wir, ob die Agenturen bessere Ratings an ihr Heimatland oder mit ihnen ökonomisch, politisch oder kulturell verbundene Länder vergeben. Unsere Ergebnisse liefern Belege für die Existenz einer Verzerrung zugunsten des jeweiligen Heimatlandes, kulturell ähnlicher Länder, und von Ländern, in denen die Banken des Heimatlandes größeren Risiken ausgesetzt sind. Dabei scheint die linguistische Ähnlichkeit der Sprache die Haupterklärung für den gemessenen Vorteil des Heimatlandes zu sein. III. Crime, Incentives and Political Effort: A Model and Empirical Application for India Der große Anteil an Politikern, gegen welche kriminelle Vorwürfe erhoben werden, hat eine öffentliche Debatte und eine Literatur über dessen Gründe und Auswirkungen ausgelöst. Um die Auswirkungen von Kriminalität abzuschätzen, entwickeln wir ein Modell über die Anreize, welchen Abgeordnete ausgesetzt sind wenn sie entscheiden ob sie sich für ihren Wahlkreis engagieren sollen. Wir nutzen drei direkte und gut messbare Maße für das Engagement der Abgeordneten in der vierzehnten Lok Sabha während der Legislaturperiode von 2004-2009: Anwesenheitsquoten, Aktivität im Parlament und die Nutzungsrate eine Fonds für lokale Entwicklungsprojekte. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe dass kriminelle Abgeordnete im Schnitt ungefähr 5% niedrigere Anwesenheitsquoten haben, und niedrige Nutzungsraten des Fonds, aber sich nicht bezüglich der Aktivität im Parlament unterscheiden. Diese Unterschiede hängen vom ökonomischen Entwicklungsstand des Wahlkreises, einem Proxy für Möglichkeiten illegale Renten zu extrahieren und für die Intensität der Überwachung des Abgeordneten durch die Wähler, sowie von der Definition von Kriminalität ab. Wir nutzen beobachtbare Kontrollvariablen, Matchingtechniken und „Treatment Effect“ Regressionen, um zu zeigen, warum diese negativen Koeffizienten eine Obergrenze für den tatsächlich wohl noch größeren negativen Zusammenhang darstellen. Darüber hinaus analysieren wir, warum es unwahrscheinlich ist, dass Selektionsprobleme aufgrund unbeobachtbarer Einflussfaktoren unsere Ergebnisse vollständig erklären können.

Despite the meaningful impact that credit ratings have on sovereign countries and financial markets, research has not fully explored the determinants of these ratings in many emerging markets (EMs). The aim of this study was to identify and quantify the extent to which different macroeconomic factors impact sovereign ratings. Based on a review of the literature, an analysis of rating agencies' methodology papers, and economic intuition, it was hypothesised that measures of wealth, economic growth, monetary stability, fiscal trajectory, external accounts and governance would predict EM credit ratings. This hypothesis was largely supported by regression models that anticipated actual ratings with predictive power comparable to extant research, but across a much broader set of EM countries. By identifying the key drivers of these ratings, the current research suggests several areas that policymakers can address to improve their own sovereign ratings. / Economics / M. Com (Economics)

This master thesis is based on analyses of the Cypriot banking sector from 2010 to 2016. The aim is to describe the effects of the recent financial crisis in Cyprus to locally operating banks, to assess the assistance provided to Cypriot banks and especially to analyze the development of systemically important Cypriot banking institutions, namely the Bank of Cyprus Group, Cooperative Central Bank, Hellenic Bank and RCB Bank Ltd with emphasis on the most important banking institution in Cyprus. The work draws mainly from published financial results of the systemic banks and from the Central Bank of Cyprus representing the consolidated banking sector. Furthermore, for the purpose of this study was used the Eurostat database, EBA and the IMF periodicals, along with the websites of the credit rating agencies.

Cette thèse s’intéresse à la comptabilisation de la dette publique sous trois angles distincts et complémentaires. Tout d’abord, nous étudions les normes de comptabilité des retraites publiques. Nous développons une grille théorique d’analyse comparée et diachronique s’appuyant sur un examen des pratiques existantes. Notre analyse met en évidence que les dispositifs existant en Europe sont incompatibles avec le modèle d’épargne individuelle tel que promu par la norme IPSAS 25. Ensuite, nous analysons la relation entre comptabilité de la dette et milieu politique, et en particulier l’hypothèse d’une sous-estimation de la dette en période d’élection. Notre analyse des révisions comptables permet de valider cette hypothèse et indique que les pays en développement sont les plus affectés par cette sous-estimation. Enfin, nous analysons l’impact du caractère sollicité ou non d'une notation sur celle-ci, ainsi que sur l’évaluation de la dette publique par les agences de notation. Notre analyse de Moody’s, Fitch, et S&P indique que les agences favorisent les pays qui sollicitent leur notation par rapport à ceux qui ne la sollicitent pas. / This thesis deals with the accounting of public debt from three distinct and complementary analytical perspectives. First, we study the accounting standards for retirement obligations. We develop a theoretical evaluation grid using a comparative and diachronic analysis based on the review of existing practices. Our analysis highlights that the existing pension schemes in Europe are incompatible with the individual savings model as promoted by the IPSAS 25 norm. Second, we analyze the relationship between debt accounting and the political environment, and test the hypothesis of an underestimation of debt levels around elections. Results allow us to validate our hypothesis and indicate that developing countries are most affected by this underestimation. Third, we examine the impact of the solicitation status of a sovereign rating on the rating itself and on the public debt level assigned by rating agencies. Focusing on Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P, our findings indicate that agencies favor countries soliciting their rating comparing to those who do not solicit them.

[pt] Utilizando o instrumental da teoria dos jogos evolucionários, a proposta desta dissertação é analisar as interações entre emissores de dívida e agências de avaliação de risco de crédito em um ambiente com assimetria de informação. Enquanto os primeiros precisam das notas emitidas pelas agências para acessar fontes de financiamentos no mercado, as agências são remuneradas pela prestação desse serviço. Os resultados mostram que, de forma geral, quando o número de emissores grau de investimento é pequeno, incentiva-se a adoção de uma estratégia pouco transparente de divulgação de informação por parte do emissor, aumentando a assimetria de informação. A melhor resposta das agências é utilizar uma análise básica do perfil de crédito de seus clientes. O aumento do número de emissores grau de investimento na economia incentiva o aperfeiçoamento das políticas corporativas de transparência, enquanto as agências sofisticam sua análise com o objetivo de evitar os custos de reputação associados a erros de avaliação. Empiricamente, os resultados são condizentes com a evolução da economia colombiana nas últimas décadas. A melhoria do ambiente macroeconômico desse país atraiu emissores grau de investimento incentivando a atuação de agências que utilizam metodologia de análise sofisticada e emissores que adotam uma estratégia transparente de divulgação de suas informações. / [en] Using evolutionary game theory, this work aims to analyse the interactions between debt issuers and credit rating agencies in an asymmetric information environment. While the ratings grades are required by issuers to access funding sources for their investment projects, the agency s revenue is provided by this service. The results show that when the number of investment grade issuers is small, non-transparency strategy and basic methodology of analysis dominate, worsening the information asymmetry problem. The increase in the number of investment grade issuers encourages transparency policies while the agencies adopt a sophisticated analysis, avoiding the reputation costs associated with errors. Empirically, the results are consistent with the evolution of the Colombian economy in recent decades. The country s improvement in the macroeconomic environment attracted investment grade issuers encouraging the proliferation of sophisticated rating agencies and transparent issuers.

This thesis deals with globalisation of markets. It focuses on examining the economic crisis of 2008 and 2010 and on how individual countries can cope with deteriorating of macroeconomic values, especially with financial implications of this situation. The thesis also examines credit rating agencies as indicators of financial soundness of investment instruments, to which is often reffered as to culprits of the crisis for their reaction to the development of the mortgage market. The thesis defines the rating in the concept of sovereign states and describes the market of credit rating agencies. It further evaluates individual rating agencies and practices in the context of the crisis, bringing a comprehensive picture of the role they played at the beginning of the crisis. It also attempts to outline more points of view on the previously unilaterally and predominantly negatively perceived issue of reputation of credit rating agencies.

The diploma thesis investigates causes and progression of the financial crisis beginning in 2007 in the United States and leading in the economic recession. Theoretical part of the thesis describes business cycles and their explanations in accordance with the Austrian theory of the business cycle and other theories. Analytical part of the thesis explores the period before the crisis and significant events relevant to it. The main subject of the thesis are institutions and regulatory measures that have major importance for the U.S. real estate market -- including monetary and intervenionist policy of Fed, Community Reinvestment Act, government sponsored enterprises and three major rating agencies. The goal of the work is to provide a comprehensive view of the financial crisis and analyse main factors that influenced its creation -- credit expansion, mortgage market, Fed's monetary policy, bank behavior, etc. This thesis tries to demonstrate an inaccuracy of state inteventions and their impacts on the economy and market system.

This thesis deals with the development, implementation and application of statistical modeling techniques which can be employed in the analysis of credit ratings. Credit ratings are one of the most widely used measures of credit risk and are relevant for a wide array of financial market participants, from investors, as part of their investment decision process, to regulators and legislators as a means of measuring and limiting risk. The majority of credit ratings is produced by the "Big Three" credit rating agencies Standard & Poors', Moody's and Fitch. Especially in the light of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, these rating agencies have been strongly criticized for failing to assess risk accurately and for the lack of transparency in their rating methodology. However, they continue to maintain a powerful role as financial market participants and have a huge impact on the cost of funding. These points of criticism call for the development of modeling techniques that can 1) facilitate an understanding of the factors that drive the rating agencies' evaluations, 2) generate insights into the rating patterns that these agencies exhibit. This dissertation consists of three research articles. The first one focuses on variable selection and assessment of variable importance in accounting-based models of credit risk. The credit risk measure employed in the study is derived from credit ratings assigned by ratings agencies Standard & Poors' and Moody's. To deal with the lack of theoretical foundation specific to this type of models, state-of-the-art statistical methods are employed. Different models are compared based on a predictive criterion and model uncertainty is accounted for in a Bayesian setting. Parsimonious models are identified after applying the proposed techniques. The second paper proposes the class of multivariate ordinal regression models for the modeling of credit ratings. The model class is motivated by the fact that correlated ordinal data arises naturally in the context of credit ratings. From a methodological point of view, we extend existing model specifications in several directions by allowing, among others, for a flexible covariate dependent correlation structure between the continuous variables underlying the ordinal credit ratings. The estimation of the proposed models is performed using composite likelihood methods. Insights into the heterogeneity among the "Big Three" are gained when applying this model class to the multiple credit ratings dataset. A comprehensive simulation study on the performance of the estimators is provided. The third research paper deals with the implementation and application of the model class introduced in the second article. In order to make the class of multivariate ordinal regression models more accessible, the R package mvord and the complementary paper included in this dissertation have been developed. The mvord package is available on the "Comprehensive R Archive Network" (CRAN) for free download and enhances the available ready-to-use statistical software for the analysis of correlated ordinal data. In the creation of the package a strong emphasis has been put on developing a user-friendly and flexible design. The user-friendly design allows end users to estimate in an easy way sophisticated models from the implemented model class. The end users the package appeals to are practitioners and researchers who deal with correlated ordinal data in various areas of application, ranging from credit risk to medicine or psychology.

This diploma work describes the financial and economical crisis that has emerged in the USA during the year 2007. In the work the preceding recessions and the flow of the current crisis are being analyzed. Attention is also given to a detailed study of the pre-crisis period in the USA economics and the identification of the root causes of the crisis and their interrelationship. The final part of the work is dedicated to the examination of the crisis consequences and the possible ways of its progress

This thesis concerned with certain problems in the U.S. financial market during the financial crisis. In the theoretical part of this thesis, I deal with the formation of U.S. banking and regulation and supervision until its present form. In this part of the work are described in detail circumstances that lead to foundation of the Federal Reserve system, and also the origins of Great Depression. The practical part is focused on the analysis of the causes of the global financial crisis. Especially the U.S. real estate market, asset securitization and credit rating agencies. In the final part of this work are described in detail the measures taken by the U.S. government in the form of law "Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act".