Venture capital investments have become a major contributor the growth of start-up firms. Investing in start-up firms carries a substantial risk of failure, only a minority of start-ups is high-return investments. This put great responsibility to the valuation methods used by the venture capital firm. It is argued that when uncertainties about future pay-offs are high traditional valuation tools are of little help, they are said to be too static and not to comply with change. A valuation method that is alleged to act in accordance with a changing environment where uncertainty is high is real option which is said to consider these variables, thus giving a more accurate valuation. The structure of venture capital funding can be seen as well suited for real option valuation. The authors find it interesting to find out how venture capitalists screen possible investments, if the traditional valuation methods hold in proportion to the challenges they face and if the real option approach could be suitable. The purpose is to describe and analyze how Swedish venture capital firms can valuate investments. The research was carried out using a qualitative method. We conducted interviews with four venture capital firms that operate in Sweden. The participating firms were: Industrifonden, Itact, FöretagsByggarna and LinkMed. The authors found in their research that the most important factors when screening the possible investments are the market and the entrepreneur. The venture capital firms use of valuation methods differ significantly. LinkMed and Industrifonden apply traditional valuation tools in contrast to Itact and FöretagsByggarna that rely on personal experience and expertise. Limitations found in the traditional models were lack of accurate and reliable estimations. The structural outlay of the investment is in line with that of the real option approach and the authors believes that real options exist embedded in the respondent’s investments. This implies that a real option approach is suitable for them.

L'obiettivo di questo lavoro e' l'estensione dell'approccio basato su opzioni reali alla valutazione delle tecnologie sanitarie. l'approccio al problema e' duplice. da un lato si vuole capire quale contributo questo sviluppo possa fornire alla comprensione dei meccanismi di adozione e diffusione di nuove tecnologie in sanità. l'altro obiettivo e' realizzare una concreta applicazione di questo approccio alla valutazione, che e' ancora assente nella letteratura di economia sanitaria. la tecnologia scelta per l'applicazione è la positron emission tomography (pet). / This work aims to extend the real option approach to the evaluation of health care technologies. The aim is to do this from two different points of view. On one side we are interested in understanding what insights taking option values into account provides in the study of adoption behaviour by providers. On the other side, we aim to provide an application of this approach to the economic evaluation of a specific medical technology, which is still missing in the health economics literature. The technology that has been chosen for the application is positron emission tomography (pet).

Contingent Claim Pricing with Applications to Financial Risk Management By Hua Chen 2008 Committee Chair: Samuel H. Cox and Shaun Wang Major Academic Unit: Department of Risk Management and Insurance This is a multi-essay dissertation designed to explore the contingent claim pricing theory with non-tradable underlying assets, with emphasis on its applications to insurance and risk management. In the first essay, I apply the real option pricing theory and dynamic programming methods to address problems in the area of operational risk management. Particularly, I develop a two-stage model to help firms determine optimal switching triggers in the event of an influenza epidemic. In the second essay, I examine mortality securitization in an incomplete market framework. I build a jump-diffusion process into the original Lee-Carter model and explore alternative model with transitory versus permanent jump effects. I discuss pricing difficulties of the Swiss Re mortality bond (2003) and use the Wang transform to account for correlations of the mortality index over time. In the third essay, I study the valuation of the non-recourse provision in reverse mortgages. I model the various risks embedded in the HECM program and apply the conditional Esscher transform to price the non-recourse provision. I further examine the premium structure of HECM loans and investigate whether insurance premiums are adequate to cover expected claims.

The limitation of public funds available for infrastructure projects has induced governments to attract private entities to participate in long-term contracts for financing, constructing, and operating huge infrastructure projects through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to reduce debt, constrain taxation, and share financial risks and rewards between the public and private sectors. Because these projects have such complicated risk evolutions, diverse contractual forms for project members to hedge their risks are necessary. Hence, the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model has been considered as a very popular type to accomplish PPPs with the characteristic of a shared-ownership. For the government to attract private sector?s participation, they have used incentive systems such as debt payment guarantee, Minimum Revenue Guarantee (MRG), or direct cash support. These incentive systems have been important critical success factors in BOT projects yet they have remained unfavorable in bidding process by failure of the traditional capital budgeting theory, Net Present Value (NPV) analysis, in evaluating the guarantee values. This is because NPV analysis can not reflect the guarantee agreements? contingent characteristic. For this reason, ?Real Option Concept? imported from ?Option Pricing Theory? in finance has been used as an effective way in estimating the guarantee value during the construction and operation of the project. However, there are still open issues in identifying, formulating, and calculating the guarantee agreements? contingency due to the complexity of option pricing theory and in considering the uncertainty of the underlying asset. Furthermore, in recent real option-related research that evaluate BOT investment projects, the volatility of rate of return in underlying asset (project value) is assumed to be just given or too simplified in its calculating process despite its significant impact on the guarantee value. The purpose of this research is to develop the binomial real option model to better evaluate the MRG value by complementing existing real option models without violating the option pricing theory. To do so, the developed model in this research is to formulate the MRG agreement as a put option, consider the uncertainty of the underlying asset, and use the more detailed level of volatility with a Monte Carlo simulation approach. To verify the applicability of the developed model, the model is applied to three different BOT project case studies, then, the results are compared with those by NPV analysis, Cheah and Liu (2006)?s real option model, and option pricing theory derived from Black-Scholes model. Finally, based upon the results and analyses, the developed real option model appears to provide a practical and theoretical framework to quantitatively evaluate the MRG agreement under the BOT scheme and help the government establish better BOT policies and help the developer make appropriate bidding strategies in its investment.

<p>Venture capital investments have become a major contributor the growth of start-up firms. Investing in start-up firms carries a substantial risk of failure, only a minority of start-ups is high-return investments. This put great responsibility to the valuation methods used by the venture capital firm. It is argued that when uncertainties about future pay-offs are high traditional valuation tools are of little help, they are said to be too static and not to comply with change. A valuation method that is alleged to act in accordance with a changing environment where uncertainty is high is real option which is said to consider these variables, thus giving a more accurate valuation. The structure of venture capital funding can be seen as well suited for real option valuation.</p><p>The authors find it interesting to find out how venture capitalists screen possible investments, if the traditional valuation methods hold in proportion to the challenges they face and if the real option approach could be suitable.</p><p>The purpose is to describe and analyze how Swedish venture capital firms can valuate investments.</p><p>The research was carried out using a qualitative method. We conducted interviews with four venture capital firms that operate in Sweden. The participating firms were: Industrifonden, Itact, FöretagsByggarna and LinkMed.</p><p>The authors found in their research that the most important factors when screening the possible investments are the market and the entrepreneur. The venture capital firms use of valuation methods differ significantly. LinkMed and Industrifonden apply traditional valuation tools in contrast to Itact and FöretagsByggarna that rely on personal experience and expertise. Limitations found in the traditional models were lack of accurate and reliable estimations. The structural outlay of the investment is in line with that of the real option approach and the authors believes that real options exist embedded in the respondent’s investments. This implies that a real option approach is suitable for them.</p>

This article evaluates Tourinho's (1979) work as one of the earliest contributors to the real options literature. His model pioneered the application of risk neutrality to uncertain investments, but his originality of introducing an option-holding cost albeit to overcome the extraction paradox is rarely imitated. We claim that the combination of a convenience yield and an option-holding cost produces a more satisfying representation. Moreover, variations in the holding cost give rise to a host of investment decisions ranging from the standard real option solution for a zero-holding cost to a net present value solution for an infinite-holding cost. Not only does the holding cost mediate between these two poles, but it provides the option seller (usually a landowner or a government) with a policy instrument for influencing the extraction timing and thus the extraction profit of the option buyer. We derive the holding cost that optimizes the landowner's combined value of the option premium, holding costs and eventual royalties. View all references) work as one of the earliest contributors to the real options literature. His model pioneered the application of risk neutrality to uncertain investments, but his originality of introducing an option-holding cost albeit to overcome the extraction paradox is rarely imitated. We claim that the combination of a convenience yield and an option-holding cost produces a more satisfying representation. Moreover, variations in the holding cost give rise to a host of investment decisions ranging from the standard real option solution for a zero-holding cost to a net present value solution for an infinite-holding cost. Not only does the holding cost mediate between these two poles, but it provides the option seller (usually a landowner or a government) with a policy instrument for influencing the extraction timing and thus the extraction profit of the option buyer. We derive the holding cost that optimizes the landowner's combined value of the option premium, holding costs and eventual royalties.

Esta dissertação tratará do tema da geração de energia elétrica no Brasil e a análise financeira de projetos. Mais especificamente será abordada a energia eólica a qual é o aproveitamento dos ventos para a geração de energia. Nos últimos 10 anos, a capacidade instalada mundial de energia eólica cresceu em média 28% ao ano sendo que na Europa 3% da energia consumida já tem origem nos ventos. No Brasil, esse tipo de aproveitamento atinge apenas 0,3% de participação no fornecimento de energia elétrica do país apesar de excelentes condições naturais. Como objetivo geral, este estudo analisará a viabilidade financeira de um projeto de energia eólica no Estado brasileiro do Ceará. A metodologia utilizada será o estudo de caso, uma empresa geradora de energia eólica, sendo avaliada, financeiramente, pela teoria das opções reais. A TOR surge como alternativa aos métodos tradicionais de análise de investimentos e tenta superar as suas limitações incluindo a questão da incerteza. Os resultados obtidos comprovam a importância, tanto da energia eólica para a matriz energética brasileira, quanto da TOR como forma de precificar oportunidades / riscos embutidos em projetos. / This thesis will broach the generation of electricity in Brazil using wind power and project valuation analysis. During the last 10 years, the worldwide wind power installed capacity grew 28% on average per year and in Europe 3% of the energy consumption comes from this source of energy. In Brazil, this type of energy reaches only 0.3% of national energy supply besides the fact that the Country has excellent natural resources for this type of generation. The objective of this study is to make the valuation analysis of a wind energy project in the Brazilian State of Ceará. The research methodology used in this thesis will be the case study of a wind energy generation plant using the real option analysis. The ROA comes as an alternative method for the traditional valuation analysis and tries to overcome its limitations adding uncertainty. The result of this study confirms the importance not only of wind power to the Brazilian energy matrix but also the ROA as an alternative method to calculate risks and opportunities included in projects.

A Tecnologia da Informação (TI) tem sido considerada ao longo dos anos como importante ferramenta para obtenção de vantagem competitiva, o que tem motivado as empresas investirem cada vez mais em tecnologia. Entretanto, o volume e a variedade destes investimentos exigem dos gestores novas ferramentas e técnicas para auxiliar no processo de justificativa e gestão da TI. Uma técnica tem sido apontada como uma das alternativas para identificar, analisar e gerenciar os investimentos em TI: a Gestão do Portfólio de TI (GPTI). De acordo, porém, com pesquisas recentes, continua sendo um conceito subdesenvolvido tanto na academia como no meio empresarial. Diferentes autores apontam que algumas organizações têm ciência da existência da GPTI, mas a minoria implementa essa técnica nas suas organizações. Assim, para mostrar que a GPTI pode auxiliar a gestão e justificativa dos investimentos em TI frente aos riscos e retornos, foi estabelecido o objetivo desta pesquisa: Analisar o uso da técnica GPTI no auxilio da justificativa e gestão dos investimentos em TI nas organizações. O método escolhido foram estudos de caso com cinco empresas brasileiras de diferentes setores econômicos; realizando entrevistas com os oito principais executivos de TI dessas organizações. Além disso, foi realizada, em um caso, uma análise quantitativa, utilizando a Teoria de Opções Reais (TOR) combinada com as dimensões da GPTI para avaliar os investimentos, levando em conta o seu o risco e o retorno; e para auxiliar os gestores nas decisões sobre investimentos em TI. Foram encontrados diferentes níveis de utilizações da GPTI nas empresas analisadas em relação a planejamento, controle e avaliação dos investimentos em TI. A GPTI estava sendo utilizada recentemente pelas empresas ou encontrava-se na fase de estruturação do portfólio de TI. Em relação à utilização da TOR, determinou-se que ela pode auxiliar os gestores de TI na análise dos investimentos nas diferentes dimensões da GPTI e possibilitar uma flexibilidade maior das decisões e um maior aproveitamento das oportunidades oferecidas pelo mercado ou devido às necessidades da empresa. A dissertação contribui para a área de TI, pois explorou e analisou um tema pouco estudado no Brasil, que é a GPTI. E também contribuiu para o conhecimento empresarial, fornecendo subsídios para os gestores realizarem benchmarking de portfólio de TI de empresas brasileiras e para oferecer uma maneira de auxiliar nas decisões sobre TI. / IT has lately been considered an important tool to gain competitive advantage, a fact that has triggered increasing investments in technology in the companies. However, the number and variety of investments require that managers use new tools and techniques to help justify and manage IT processes. A technique has been chosen as an alternative to identify, analyze, and manage investments in IT: Information Technology Portfolio Management (ITPM). Nevertheless, recent studies have shown that this concept has not been thoroughly developed neither in the academy nor in companies. Different authors point out that some organizations are aware of ITPM, but few use it in their business. Therefore, to show that ITPM can be of use in the justification and management of investments in IT, the following research aim as established: to analyze the use of ITPM as a tool to help justify and manage investments in IT in organizations. The methodology comprises five case studies of five Brazilian companies in different economic sectors; eight IT managers were interviewed in these companies. Besides, a quantitative analysis was carried out with one of the case studies by using the Real Options Theory (ROT) associated with ITPM in order to assess investment risk and return and to help managers take decisions regarding their investments in IT. Different ITPM levels were found in the companies under investigation concerning planning, control, and evaluation in investments in IT. Results show that ITPM has been used for a short time or is in the structuring phase of the IT portfolio. Regarding the use of ROT, I have concluded that it can help IT managers analyze investments in different ITPM dimensions and enable more flexibility in decision-making and better use of the market opportunities, according to the company's needs. This thesis brings some contributions to the IT area since it explores and analyzes a theme – ITPM – which has got little research in Brazil; besides, it contributes to managerial knowledge so that managers can benchmark IT portfolios in Brazilian companies, and help the decision-making process in IT, an area that has got increasing importance in the companies lately.

A Tecnologia da Informação (TI) tem sido considerada ao longo dos anos como importante ferramenta para obtenção de vantagem competitiva, o que tem motivado as empresas investirem cada vez mais em tecnologia. Entretanto, o volume e a variedade destes investimentos exigem dos gestores novas ferramentas e técnicas para auxiliar no processo de justificativa e gestão da TI. Uma técnica tem sido apontada como uma das alternativas para identificar, analisar e gerenciar os investimentos em TI: a Gestão do Portfólio de TI (GPTI). De acordo, porém, com pesquisas recentes, continua sendo um conceito subdesenvolvido tanto na academia como no meio empresarial. Diferentes autores apontam que algumas organizações têm ciência da existência da GPTI, mas a minoria implementa essa técnica nas suas organizações. Assim, para mostrar que a GPTI pode auxiliar a gestão e justificativa dos investimentos em TI frente aos riscos e retornos, foi estabelecido o objetivo desta pesquisa: Analisar o uso da técnica GPTI no auxilio da justificativa e gestão dos investimentos em TI nas organizações. O método escolhido foram estudos de caso com cinco empresas brasileiras de diferentes setores econômicos; realizando entrevistas com os oito principais executivos de TI dessas organizações. Além disso, foi realizada, em um caso, uma análise quantitativa, utilizando a Teoria de Opções Reais (TOR) combinada com as dimensões da GPTI para avaliar os investimentos, levando em conta o seu o risco e o retorno; e para auxiliar os gestores nas decisões sobre investimentos em TI. Foram encontrados diferentes níveis de utilizações da GPTI nas empresas analisadas em relação a planejamento, controle e avaliação dos investimentos em TI. A GPTI estava sendo utilizada recentemente pelas empresas ou encontrava-se na fase de estruturação do portfólio de TI. Em relação à utilização da TOR, determinou-se que ela pode auxiliar os gestores de TI na análise dos investimentos nas diferentes dimensões da GPTI e possibilitar uma flexibilidade maior das decisões e um maior aproveitamento das oportunidades oferecidas pelo mercado ou devido às necessidades da empresa. A dissertação contribui para a área de TI, pois explorou e analisou um tema pouco estudado no Brasil, que é a GPTI. E também contribuiu para o conhecimento empresarial, fornecendo subsídios para os gestores realizarem benchmarking de portfólio de TI de empresas brasileiras e para oferecer uma maneira de auxiliar nas decisões sobre TI. / IT has lately been considered an important tool to gain competitive advantage, a fact that has triggered increasing investments in technology in the companies. However, the number and variety of investments require that managers use new tools and techniques to help justify and manage IT processes. A technique has been chosen as an alternative to identify, analyze, and manage investments in IT: Information Technology Portfolio Management (ITPM). Nevertheless, recent studies have shown that this concept has not been thoroughly developed neither in the academy nor in companies. Different authors point out that some organizations are aware of ITPM, but few use it in their business. Therefore, to show that ITPM can be of use in the justification and management of investments in IT, the following research aim as established: to analyze the use of ITPM as a tool to help justify and manage investments in IT in organizations. The methodology comprises five case studies of five Brazilian companies in different economic sectors; eight IT managers were interviewed in these companies. Besides, a quantitative analysis was carried out with one of the case studies by using the Real Options Theory (ROT) associated with ITPM in order to assess investment risk and return and to help managers take decisions regarding their investments in IT. Different ITPM levels were found in the companies under investigation concerning planning, control, and evaluation in investments in IT. Results show that ITPM has been used for a short time or is in the structuring phase of the IT portfolio. Regarding the use of ROT, I have concluded that it can help IT managers analyze investments in different ITPM dimensions and enable more flexibility in decision-making and better use of the market opportunities, according to the company's needs. This thesis brings some contributions to the IT area since it explores and analyzes a theme – ITPM – which has got little research in Brazil; besides, it contributes to managerial knowledge so that managers can benchmark IT portfolios in Brazilian companies, and help the decision-making process in IT, an area that has got increasing importance in the companies lately.

Esta dissertação tratará do tema da geração de energia elétrica no Brasil e a análise financeira de projetos. Mais especificamente será abordada a energia eólica a qual é o aproveitamento dos ventos para a geração de energia. Nos últimos 10 anos, a capacidade instalada mundial de energia eólica cresceu em média 28% ao ano sendo que na Europa 3% da energia consumida já tem origem nos ventos. No Brasil, esse tipo de aproveitamento atinge apenas 0,3% de participação no fornecimento de energia elétrica do país apesar de excelentes condições naturais. Como objetivo geral, este estudo analisará a viabilidade financeira de um projeto de energia eólica no Estado brasileiro do Ceará. A metodologia utilizada será o estudo de caso, uma empresa geradora de energia eólica, sendo avaliada, financeiramente, pela teoria das opções reais. A TOR surge como alternativa aos métodos tradicionais de análise de investimentos e tenta superar as suas limitações incluindo a questão da incerteza. Os resultados obtidos comprovam a importância, tanto da energia eólica para a matriz energética brasileira, quanto da TOR como forma de precificar oportunidades / riscos embutidos em projetos. / This thesis will broach the generation of electricity in Brazil using wind power and project valuation analysis. During the last 10 years, the worldwide wind power installed capacity grew 28% on average per year and in Europe 3% of the energy consumption comes from this source of energy. In Brazil, this type of energy reaches only 0.3% of national energy supply besides the fact that the Country has excellent natural resources for this type of generation. The objective of this study is to make the valuation analysis of a wind energy project in the Brazilian State of Ceará. The research methodology used in this thesis will be the case study of a wind energy generation plant using the real option analysis. The ROA comes as an alternative method for the traditional valuation analysis and tries to overcome its limitations adding uncertainty. The result of this study confirms the importance not only of wind power to the Brazilian energy matrix but also the ROA as an alternative method to calculate risks and opportunities included in projects.