A típica produção de cana-de-açúcar por fornecedores autônomos no Estado de São Paulo dá-se em pequenas propriedades rurais. Nessa atividade, constatou-se prejuízo econômico entre as safras 2007/08 e 2011/12, fato este que leva ao objetivo do presente estudo: responder por que, então, tais produtores mantêm-se no fornecimento de cana-deaçúcar em detrimento de encerrarem seus projetos e direcionarem os recursos para outras atividades. Foram analisados dois projetos de investimento em cana-de-açúcar, tomando como base informações disponíveis das regiões de Piracicaba e Sertãozinho. Considerando-se o método do fluxo de caixa descontado, obtiveram-se estimativas que apontam para a atratividade econômica do plantio de cana em ambas as regiões, haja vista a resposta positiva dos Valores Presentes Líquidos calculados. Tais evidências foram corroboradas quando da utilização da Teoria das Opções Reais, proposta que incorpora no modelo de decisão a flexibilidade gerencial do investidor. Neste caso, mais expressivas foram as respostas obtidas em termos de atratividade financeira. Ressalta-se, ainda, para os principais parâmetros que impactam na viabilidade econômica de empreendimentos canavieiros, a saber, o preço e a qualidade da cana-de-açúcar e a produtividade agrícola. Adicionalmente, os resultados apontam para melhores condições financeiras quando a produção de cana é realizada em terras próprias - em detrimento de áreas arrendadas - além da necessidade de incentivos dados pelas usinas aos fornecedores da região de Sertãozinho. Medidas que visam ganhos de produtividade agrícola e a profissionalização da atividade são apontadas como fatores motivadores de ganhos financeiros, enquanto que em termos de políticas públicas cita-se a possibilidade de ajustes nos sistemas de precificação da gasolina C e na tributação dos derivados da cana-de-açúcar, ações que tendem a elevar a rentabilidade da atividade ora analisada. / The typical production of sugarcane by independent suppliers in the São Paulo State gives up on small farms. In this activity, it was found that between crops 2007/08 and 2011/12 there was economic loss, a fact that leads to the goal of the present study: answer why these producers still remain providing sugarcane. Apart from the traditional viability analysis, the study incorporated the Real Options Theory analysis, which includes managerial flexibility on the investor decision model. Two sugarcane investment projects based on available information of Piracicaba and Sertaozinho regions were analyzed. Considering the discounted cash flow method, we obtained estimates pointing to the economic attractiveness of sugarcane planting in both regions, as shown by the positive response of the Net Present Values calculated. This evidence was corroborated when using the Real Options Theory, given the most significant were the responses in terms of financial attractiveness. Additionally, the results point to better financial conditions when the production of sugarcane is held in its own land, beyond the need for mills incentives to independent suppliers of Sertaozinho. Price and quality of sugarcane and agricultural productivity presented the higher impact on the financial viability of projects. Finally, actions focus on agricultural productivity gains are seen as motivating for financial gain, while in terms of public policy we mention the possibility of adjustments in C gasoline pricing systems and in the taxation on derived products from sugarcane.

This dissertation provides three models pertaining expropriation and production decisions in the natural resources industries. The first two chapters are intertwined: in these, the government relies on two tools to capture the rents from privately-owned Natural Resources Companies, a corporate income tax and the possibility of expropriating the assets. A real options model is used to assess the effect that progressiveness in taxation has on the political risk of a natural resources project. In the first chapter, we discover that under certain conditions for the underlying commodity: low prices or forward curves in backwardation - the introduction of an equivalent but more progressive tax regime decreases the political risk and the corresponding deadweight loss. However, when initial prices are too high or initial futures curves are in strong contango, the introduction of a progressive tax regime ends up significantly increasing the risks. In the second chapter, producers are able to foresee the risks of expropriation and thus change their behaviour: the results are mixed. As in the previous case, with lower prices and less tendency to expropriate, the scheduling of production allows for gains in the value of the operation for the firms. More progressive tax regimes end up being detrimental to the government, which in some cases can even result in a non-stable equilibrium with the producers and governments trying to outguess each other and end up cycling both the production and the expropriation probability in order to maximise their respective expected value for the operations. This has a detrimental effect for all parties involved. Finally, the third chapter introduces the possibility that a government levies royalties over sales. The development of home-based institutions is going to affect the amount of tax evasion that a government will face and thus determine the appropriate combination of taxes that it must choose. We find that when the host country's tax and technological capacity are too low, a state has no incentives to improve its institutions and becomes trapped in a low tax, low revenue situation: what we call a Royalty Trap. We end up by showing the evolution of tax capture in Chile during the 20th century to illustrate how these concepts might be applied.

成功的企業購併需仰賴正確的投資評估以及有效的購併過程管理,本文包含兩個部分,第一部分主要探討購併利益評估的問題,使用的方法為real-option approach簡化了購併效益之評估,且可獲得較正確的結果;第二部分為兩家國際出版業合併之個案研究,就此成功的例子而言,管理者可以獲得較有利且完善的合併經營方法。 / Successful mergers depend on proper valuation of this special type of investment and effective management of this process. First essay devoted to the problem of merger profitability valuation. Using real-option approach, a simple model is developed to expand accuracy in decision making process about merger possibility. This model considers uncertainty of situation and provides flexibility in company’s strategy. According to this approach profitability of merger may be calculated by using value of premium paid for acquiring company and value of synergy that expected from merge of two companies. Main problem of merger’s valuation in this approach is correct definition of synergy. In second essay, merger of two publishing companies Addison Wesley Longman and Simon & Schuster is analyzed. Positive experience in choosing candidates for merge, pre- and post-acquisition decision making process can serve as a good example of effective merger’s management.

The performance of a program can sometimes greatly improve if it was known in advance the features of the input the program is supposed to process, the actual operating parameters it is supposed to work with, or the specific environment it is to run on. However, this information is typically not available until too late in the program’s operation to take advantage of it. This is especially true for simulation algorithms, which are sensitive to this late-arriving information, and whose role in the solution of decision-making, inference and valuation problems is crucial. To overcome this limitation we need to provide the flexibility for a program to adapt its behaviour to late-arriving information once it becomes available. In this thesis, I study three adaptation mechanisms: run-time code generation, model-specific (quasi) Monte Carlo sampling and dynamic computation offloading, and evaluate their benefits on Monte Carlo algorithms. First, run-time code generation is studied in the context of Monte Carlo algorithms for time-series filtering in the form of the Input-Adaptive Kalman filter, a dynamically generated state estimator for non-linear, non-Gaussian dynamic systems. The second adaptation mechanism consists of the application of the functional-ANOVA decomposition to generate model-specific QMC-samplers which can then be used to improve Monte Carlo-based integration. The third adaptive mechanism treated here, dynamic computation offloading, is applied to wireless communication management, where network conditions are assessed via option valuation techniques to determine whether a program should offload computations or carry them out locally in order to achieve higher run-time (and correspondingly battery-usage) efficiency. This ability makes the program well suited for operation in mobile environments. At their core, all these applications carry out or make use of (quasi) Monte Carlo simulations on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). The DBN formalism and its associated simulation-based algorithms are of great value in the solution to problems with a large uncertainty component. This characteristic makes adaptation techniques like those studied here likely to gain relevance in a world where computers are endowed with perception capabilities and are expected to deal with an ever-increasing stream of sensor and time-series data.

The performance of a program can sometimes greatly improve if it was known in advance the features of the input the program is supposed to process, the actual operating parameters it is supposed to work with, or the specific environment it is to run on. However, this information is typically not available until too late in the program’s operation to take advantage of it. This is especially true for simulation algorithms, which are sensitive to this late-arriving information, and whose role in the solution of decision-making, inference and valuation problems is crucial. To overcome this limitation we need to provide the flexibility for a program to adapt its behaviour to late-arriving information once it becomes available. In this thesis, I study three adaptation mechanisms: run-time code generation, model-specific (quasi) Monte Carlo sampling and dynamic computation offloading, and evaluate their benefits on Monte Carlo algorithms. First, run-time code generation is studied in the context of Monte Carlo algorithms for time-series filtering in the form of the Input-Adaptive Kalman filter, a dynamically generated state estimator for non-linear, non-Gaussian dynamic systems. The second adaptation mechanism consists of the application of the functional-ANOVA decomposition to generate model-specific QMC-samplers which can then be used to improve Monte Carlo-based integration. The third adaptive mechanism treated here, dynamic computation offloading, is applied to wireless communication management, where network conditions are assessed via option valuation techniques to determine whether a program should offload computations or carry them out locally in order to achieve higher run-time (and correspondingly battery-usage) efficiency. This ability makes the program well suited for operation in mobile environments. At their core, all these applications carry out or make use of (quasi) Monte Carlo simulations on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). The DBN formalism and its associated simulation-based algorithms are of great value in the solution to problems with a large uncertainty component. This characteristic makes adaptation techniques like those studied here likely to gain relevance in a world where computers are endowed with perception capabilities and are expected to deal with an ever-increasing stream of sensor and time-series data.

本研究於近年來公營事業的營運及管理模式日漸無法滿足高度自由化社會的需求，國際間公營事業開放民營化已成為普遍趨勢。然而，反觀我國於民國84年自今，陸續開放三階段民營電廠申請建設，其中通過的15間民營電廠中，僅存7家順利商轉營運，專案達成率不到五成。在面臨公營事業民營化的強力趨勢下，我國於專案融資領域似乎尚未累積足夠經驗進行國內大型專案的計畫與執行。因此本研究試圖以分析專案融資架構，並結合國內民營化腳步，以民營電廠「長生電廠」為個案進行進一部分析研究。 本研究首先檢視國內電力市場，了解電業自由化之趨勢與未來民營電廠興建之需求。並介紹我國民營電廠目前經營狀況以及其申請的流程，從中得知民營電廠申請手續之繁複與時程環環相扣等特性，與專案融資具有高度相似性。其後於第三章探討目前專案融資的進展與主要運作架構。專案融資首重風險評估與管理，ㄧ個成功的電廠專案，需事先評估專案流程中隱藏之風險，並採取相對應的規避手段，最重要是風險一旦發生時的應變措施與責任歸屬。 第四章以第三章之專案融資分析架構，並以我國民營電廠之成功案例「長生電廠」進行研究，長生電廠因其機組設計符合未來趨勢與專案設計之完善，使其順利取得融資完成專案。透過專案內容的呈現，與電廠專案為獲利性期長且風險較低等特性，說明長生電廠如何透過事前的風險管理與融資規劃順利取得融資。後續導入實質選擇權觀念，分析長生電廠管理面彈性對於價值的貢獻。 本研究結論發現，專案融資定義為以專案公司為主軸進行專案並藉由契約的安排分配各個參與者的利益以及其承擔的風險。其中我國民營電廠中首重於參與者的資格(此指專業能力與財力背景)與專案風險之分配，好的參與者有助於強化專案舉債能力與確保專案利潤，正滿足專案融資以未來現金流與本身資產抵押作為融資之特性。而專案的風險管理為透過合約進行專案風險之分配，需依照風險確定、規避、排除及移轉等程序，並且配合專案範圍內涉及之合約進行。而實質選擇權方面，對於提高專案外顯價值有正面效果，有助於專案權益人了解專案本身管理面彈性與真正價值。

Changes in the electric power industry have brought great challenges and uncertainties in transmission planning area. More effective planning of transmission grids with the appropriate development of advanced planning technologies is badly-needed. The aim of this research is to develop an advanced probabilistic transmission expansion planning (TEP) methodology in a continually changing market environment. The methodology should be able to strengthen and increase the robustness of existing transmission network. By using the proposed probabilistic TEP methodology, it can reduce the risks of major outages and identify weak buses in the system. The significance of this research is shown by its comprehensiveness and powerful practicability. Results from this research are able to improve the planning efficiency and reliability with consideration of financial risks in an electricity market. In order to achieve the target, this research methodologies focused on two main important issues, (1) probability based technical assessment and (2) financial investment evaluation. During the first stage study, probabilistic congestion management, probabilistic reliability evaluation and probabilistic load flow for TEP under uncertainties have been investigated and improved. The developed methodologies and indices, which truly represent the composite impact from both critical state and probability, have linked with financial terms. At financial investment evaluation part, Monte Carlo market simulation is performed to assist economic analysis. The overall planning process has been treated as a constrained multi-objective optimisation task. Comprehensive investigations are conducted on several test systems and testified by real power systems using the available reliability data and economic information from the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). Overall, this research developed probabilistic transmission planning methodologies that can reflect modern market structures more accurately and it enable a greater utilization of current generation and transmission resources to increase potential operation efficiencies.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo mensurar, através da metodologia de opções reais, o valor de opções e do método de pagamento definidos no contrato de aquisição de uma companhia. / Submitted by Arthur Schunck Sindoni (arthursindoni@gmail.com) on 2015-01-09T18:16:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Finanças - Dissertação - Sindoni - Final OK .pdf: 1623973 bytes, checksum: dbeaa12212ba0c7bf7bfcce72fe02147 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br) on 2015-01-09T18:34:29Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Finanças - Dissertação - Sindoni - Final OK .pdf: 1623973 bytes, checksum: dbeaa12212ba0c7bf7bfcce72fe02147 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-01-09T19:36:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Finanças - Dissertação - Sindoni - Final OK .pdf: 1623973 bytes, checksum: dbeaa12212ba0c7bf7bfcce72fe02147 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-12-12 / Aquisições de empresas obtiveram alta relevância na economia mundial nas últimas décadas. Em 2012, só no Brasil, movimentaram mais de R$ 180 bilhões. Entretanto, mesmo havendo vasto histórico de aplicação prática e ampla literatura sobre o tema, a forma correta de realizar uma aquisição não é trivial. Estudos empíricos demonstram que uma quantidade relevante de aquisições obtém resultados aquém do esperado, sendo que problemas na determinação do real valor de uma empresa se destacam como um dos fatores. Adicionalmente, as metodologias de avaliação de empresas mais utilizadas, múltiplos de lucro e fluxo de caixa descontado, são criticadas por falharem na captação do valor da flexibilidade do negócio, como por exemplo, opções em contrato. Neste cenário, uma alternativa de metodologia de avaliação de empresas que englobe opções em contrato emerge como um enfoque relevante. O método de opções reais torna-se uma alternativa a ser explorada. Nesta dissertação, desenvolvida através do método qualitativo, a literatura de fusões & aquisições foi analisada de forma ampla, porém com maior nível de profundidade nos tópicos relacionados ao tema central deste projeto: avaliação de opções em contrato de aquisição de empresas através de opções reais. A aplicação prática foi desenvolvida através do estudo de caso de uma aquisição do mercado imobiliário, utilizando-se o método de opções reais de forma retroativa, ou seja, todos os cálculos foram elaborados com base nos valores obtidos no momento do processo de aquisição, em 2009. O objetivo foi avaliar se o método de opções reais pode ser considerado uma alternativa prática para avaliar o valor financeiro das opções em contrato da aquisição em estudo e o impacto do valor destas opções no valor total da aquisição.

Submitted by Raphael Einsfeld Simões Ferreira (raphaelsimoes@me.com) on 2016-08-24T12:57:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Raphael Einsfeld.pdf: 3694105 bytes, checksum: 4eb0da67ad07b011e63bd1b4fb000d3a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2016-08-24T23:39:15Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Raphael Einsfeld.pdf: 3694105 bytes, checksum: 4eb0da67ad07b011e63bd1b4fb000d3a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-25T14:12:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Raphael Einsfeld.pdf: 3694105 bytes, checksum: 4eb0da67ad07b011e63bd1b4fb000d3a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-07-25 / We know that business valuation is not always an exact science, despite the numerous methods currently available. In the case of valuation of companies in the pre-operational phase this environment becomes even more cloudy, especially when evaluating future products not yet available in the market, as the case of companies working with research and development (R & D). Although diffusely employed, valuation with net present value (NPV) is not always the best methodology applied to this type of business model, since it is not able to take into account the many uncertainties and interference over decision process regarding the creation of new products, such as abandonment, new investments, waiting for the next round of investments, and others types of decisions. In this scenario real option valuation methodology allows this flexibility, providing greater reliability to the valuation process. This work will bring a practical approach carried out by an R & D company in the valuation of a specific product through two methodologies - NPV and real options. Those will be key strategies at the time of the investment and market exit decision. / Sabe-se que avaliação de empresa nem sempre é uma ciência exata, a despeito das inúmeras metodologias atualmente disponíveis. Em se tratando de avaliação de empresas em fase pré-operacional este ambiente se torna ainda mais turvo, principalmente na avaliação de futuros produtos ainda não existentes no mercado, como no caso das empresas que trabalham com pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D). Apesar de difusamente empregada, a avaliação por valor presente líquido (VPL) nem sempre será a melhor metodologia aplicada a este tipo de modelo de negócio, uma vez que não é capaz de levar em consideração as inúmeras incertezas e interferências ao longo do processo de decisão da criação de novos produtos, como as possibilidades de expansão, continuidade, retração ou desistência. Para tanto a metodologia por opções reais permite esta flexibilidade, o que traz maior fidedignidade ao processo de avaliação. A incorporação destas flexibilidades resulta em maiores valores de avaliação encontrados pela metodologia por opções reais quando comparado com os valores apresentados pelo VPL, com consequente repercussão positiva sobre a tomada de decisão.

[pt] A completação inteligente é uma tecnologia inovadora que permite uma maior eficiência na produção dos campos do pré-sal, a principal fronteira de produção do Brasil atualmenente. Além disso, uma técnica comumente utilizada nos projetos de petróleo é a conversão de poços produtores em injetores quando há um declínio na vazão de produção. Saber valorar um projeto de petróleo que possua a opção de conversão para poços injetores no futuro, de forma a decidir qual tipo de completação é a que maior valor agrega, é um dos objetivos de um tomador de decisão na área petrolífera. Esta dissertação aborda o uso da teoria de opções reais, através da técnica de diferenças finitas, com o objetivo de analisar se é vantajoso adotar a tecnologia de completação inteligente frente à completação convencional baseado no valor agregado por cada uma em um projeto de petróleo com conversão de poço. Como contribuição final, o projeto propõe a aplicação de um modelo de opções reais, com uma janela de exercício temporal, para a decisão de qual tecnologia de completação um projeto da indústria petrolífera deve considerar. / [en] Smart well is a new technology that allows greater efficiency in pre-salt production, which is currently the largest production frontier in Brazil. Another technique used in oil projects is the conversion of production wells in injector wells when there is a decline in production. Valuing an oil project that has the option to allow conversion to injector wells in the future and decide what kind of completion adds more value is one of the objectives of the decision maker in the oil industry. This dissertation addresses the use of real option theory, by using finite differences, with the objective of analyzing whether it is advantageous to adopt smart completion compared to conventional completion based on the value added by each one in an oil project with a well conversion. As final contribution, this project proposes the application of real option model, with a limited exercise interval, to decide what completion technology an oil company may consider.