The sources of construction business for local firms have been shifted gradually to oversea market over years due to domestic economic recession. Nevertheless, the revenue seems standstill against to the growing contract amounts since the cost has been encroached on the present cost estimation procedure which based on personal instincts, experiences and simple formula that out of ability to identify the future uncertainties and frame the flexible management in advance under drastic business environment. To enhance the managerial insight and flexibility of evaluation process for the future uncertainties, we proposed and constructed a real optional model of risk cost upon traditional cost evaluation process. As a result of experiment, the sources of uncertainties and the flexibilities for management could be observed and directed clearly to against the risk without subjective or instinctive recognization anymore. Seveal occasions of application of real option value have been suggested in this study several important key points should be emphasized before using it: neither profit/loss nor price for accounting can be promised with the real option value; rather an expectable goal for managers to achieve. Appropriate flexible activities should be studied and approached before making decisions to acquire real option value. Maximized overall real option value could be a powerful competition tool for any company that tries to adopt real option approach to profit estimation if the interaction and synergy of real option among individual projects could be integrated effectively. Under the support of authority and interorganization commitment, the real option process should be learned and modified evolutionary according to dynamic business environment then becomes a strategic advantage.

The purpose of this dissertation is to explore how the economic return of a software investment can be assessed and managed. This topic has been studied in research and has been a concern for firms making software investments. In order to study this we need a model of the underlying factors affecting the economic return. Assessing and managing the return of a software investment is been argued to be difficult due to specific economic characteristics of a software investment, i.e. high degree of intangible consequences and uncertainty about the total investment cost. Given these characteristics it is has been concluded that it is difficult to derive a return function. In this dissertation we question this conclusion and propose a comprehensive model to assess and manage the intangibles and the underlying uncertainty. The model is deduced from general assumptions of the economic behavior of the firm. To develop the model we analyze the relevance of intangibles in relation to the economic purpose of making a software investment. Based on this a new way of deriving a cash flow function for a software investments is defined. Further it is analyzed how the underlying uncertainty of a software investment can be managed. The analysis uses a quantitative approach and methods from financial economics. It includes how the application of a real option and portfolio approach can reduce the uncertainty in a software investment and the role of efficient software platforms. The relation between software platforms and the opportunity to create different types of real options for future development is inferred from empirical studies. The studies in this dissertation show how a managerial view on a software investment corresponds with the overall economic goal of the firm. They also show how a strategic value of a software investment can be created, assessed and managed.

Trois chapitres constituent cette thèse.Le premier traite des performances des modèles de valorisation traditionnels. Au travers une littérature détaillée, il met en exergue les facteurs qui impactent la structure financière ainsi que des ajustements théoriques en vue d’améliorer les différentes méthodes de valorisation. Puis, il aborde la création de valeur issue d’opérations de contrôle et expose les méthodes à privilégier en fonction de contextes déterminés. Il présente ensuite des études statistiques visant à attester de la fiabilité et de la pertinence des méthodes traditionnelles.Le deuxième est dédié à l’évaluation de la décision d’investissement par l’approche des options réelles. Tout d’abord, un cadre définit leur modélisation et leur niveau d’utilisation actuelle par les praticiens. Ensuite, la littérature étudiée développe les interactions des différentes catégories d’options présentes au sein d’un même projet d’investissement. Elle dévoile, notamment, les fondements des modèles de l’option d’attente, qui permet de déterminer le moment opportun pour investir, de l’option de désinvestissement, y compris au sein de contextes particuliers, et de l’option de croissance, qui affecte les choix de diversification et de stratégies d’acquisition. Ces différents modèles font l’objet d’applications pratiques.Enfin, le troisième s’attache à mettre en lumière l’évaluation de la structure du passif financier par l’approche des options réelles. Les modèles optionnels décrits dans la littérature proposent une nouvelle répartition de la valeur d’entreprise entre une valeur économique des capitaux propres et de la dette nette. Puis, les articles étudiés évoquent l’intégration des problèmes d’agence et du refinancement de la dette à partir de modèles optionnels. Enfin, trois études statistiques ont pour objectif de comparer des valorisations de sociétés depuis des méthodes traditionnelles et depuis celle des options réelles. Il s’agit de déterminer si la méthode des options octroie un surplus de valeur aux capitaux propres, de par la prise en compte d’une dette nette économique. Par ailleurs, les analyses réalisées visent à attester de la pertinence et de la fiabilité de la méthode des options réelles par rapport à aux méthodes traditionnelles. / This thesis is organized around three chapters.The first one deals with performances of traditional valuation methods. A detailed literature review highlights the factors that affect the financial structure and theoretical adjustments to improve the different valuation methods. Furthermore, the chapter is dedicated to value creation from control operations and outlines the preferred methods according to specific contexts. Finally, it presents statistical studies to demonstrate the reliability and relevance of traditional methods.The second chapter focuses on the assessment of the investment decision by the real options approach. First, their modeling framework is defined as well as their level of current use by practitioners. Then, the studied literature develops the interactions of different categories of options present within the same investment project. It reveals, in particular, the foundation for models of standby option, which determines the appropriate time to invest, the disinvestment option, including in particular contexts, and the growth option, which affects the choices of diversification and acquisition strategies. These different models are subject to practical applications.The third chapter aims to highlight the assessment of the financial liability structure by the real options approach. Optional models described in the literature suggest a new division of the enterprise value between economic value of equity and net debt. Moreover, the articles studied focus on the integration of agency and debt refinancing problems when using optional templates. Finally, three statistical studies aim to compare the valuation of companies based on traditional and real options methods in order to determine whether the options method gives a surplus value to equity by the inclusion of an economic net det. Furthermore, the purpose of the analyses is to attest to the relevance and reliability of the real options method compared to traditional methods.

Biotechnology generated solutions have been hailed as potential cures to many of the problems facing the world today. New therapeutics will eradicate disease, new agricultural products will solve food shortages, and industrial application will improve productivity with reduced environmental impact. Despite the much anticipated benefits of biotechnology, the industry faces significant challenges that must be overcome in the coming decades. Biotechnology is an inherently complex field with a high degree of uncertainty and associated risks. In addition to the risk associated with project development and delivery, businesses looking to extract an economic return from the provision of biotechnology products and services face significant financial risk. This is exacerbated by the long lead times in biotechnology product development and the expensive nature of research and development. This thesis looks investigates the multi faceted problem of biotechnology valuation in Australia using a multi method approach designed to provide greater insight into the valuation challenges facing the industry and identify key value drivers. The approach incorporates a broad qualitative investigation, complimented by more focused quantitative studies into specific valuation issues surrounding IPO and project valuation. Australian biotechnology firms face a significant challenge to raise sufficient capital in order to remain internationally competitive. The current industry structure and funding mechanisms encourage creation of small firms with narrow pipelines, exacerbating the risk of company failure and acting as an impediment to sustainability and, therefore, investment in the sector. Despite the challenges facing the Australian biotechnology industry, the nation possesses a competitive advantage in the strength of local science which, if fully leveraged, should see the development of an internationally competitive industry. Through improved funding mechanisms which encourage the creation of sustainable business models, increased investor participation in the industry should see a greater portion of the value generated through biotechnology retained by local participants. An IPO is likely the largest single capital raising in a company's history. A quantitative investigation into the factors influencing the amount of underpricing and money left on the table for Australian biotechnology IPOs found that the amount of money left on the table was more critical than the level of underpricing. Additionally the impact of market sentiment on biotechnology IPOs was investigated with increased media coverage found to be positively related to the amount of money left on the table. Using project valuation models, the drivers of value over the life of a typical biotechnology project were identified. Key drivers of biotechnology value are commercial viability, coupled with development cost and time. The ability of management to control these elements is crucial. Analysis of project valuations using a traditional DCF model found value estimates exhibited a greater level of uncertainty than those calculated using more contemporary methods of decision tree and real option analysis. Additionally, incorporation of management flexibility into valuation assessment using real options techniques increased the perceived value of biotechnology projects. The value of management flexibility was found to be most relevant for early stage projects where the option to abandon was found to greatly influence values.

Evaluation of the real price for financial assets has been an important issue. This thesis used four approaches, namely free cash flow method, dividend discount method, C.R.R Binomial Numerical Analysis of real-option theory and capital-budgeting techniques, to evaluate the real value of REITs in Taiwan. Fubon No.1, Cathy No.1, Shin Kong No.1 are chosen as cases to study in this thesis. This thesis analyzes their financial statements and historical data to estimate the parameters in those models and compute the real price of REITs. Our empirical results show that the real prices estimated from the free cash flow approach are higher than market prices by 30%. The real prices from the dividend discount method are higher than average market price by 300%.The real prices from the third approach, present value method, are higher than market prices by 10%. After considering the opportunities managers hold by the real-option approach, the real prices are higher than the market value by 200%. These results suggested the current prices of REITs in Taiwan are undervalued. It appears that anchoring tendency might be an explanation that prices of REITs in Taiwan are fixed in certain levels.

Innovation is an important activity for organizations to be able to compete and handle changing environments. Since innovations are uncertain it is difficult to evaluate them. Traditional evaluation models are based on historical data, but since innovations do not have any history traditional models are not applicable. The real option is an evaluation model that can incorporate all the properties of innovations and thus give a fair value to innovation. But a barrier to using real options is that the value it creates can be ambiguous to decision-makers. In our opinion, this hurdle could be diminished if similarities were identified since it would create clarity in the value that is created. Therefore, the purpose of this thesis was to identify similarities in the value created, when real options are used to evaluate innovations. This study used literature study to collect data, and thematic analysis was used to determine if there exist common themes in the value created. Ten articles were analyzed. Flexibility and learning were identified as the common themes in the value created by real options. Real options create the possibility to execute activities in shorter phases, which creates flexibility for the decision-maker and builds knowledge. Future research should focus on investigating the situations under which real options are effective, to determine whether real option is a general tool that can be used in all-organizational settings.

Yes / Using a three-factor stochastic real option model framework, this paper examines the effects of abandonment on the investment decision. Abandonment is classified according to whether the opportunity arises for an active operating asset post-investment, or for holding the project opportunity pre-investment. Separate analytical models are developed for the alternative forms of abandonment optionality. Numerical sensitivity analysis shows that the presence of a post-investment abandonment opportunity makes the investment opportunity appear to be more attractive because of the abandonment option value, but not by a considerable amount. Also, in contrast to the standard real option finding, an abandonment value volatility increase produces a project value threshold fall owing to the increase in the abandonment option value.

[pt] O presente documento tem por objetivo realizar a análise de viabilidade econômica para a implantação e operação da Fase 1 de um modelo de negócios voltado para a produção, no mercado brasileiro, de tintas especiais para aplicações industriais. Tal análise foi desenvolvida utilizando-se a Teoria das Opções Reais em um processo de simulação de Monte Carlo onde os custos (fatores de incerteza) serão considerados estocásticos seguindo um movimento de reversão à média. Desta forma serão quantificados os efeitos das flexibilidades gerenciais e como estes afetam o valor do projeto através de uma forma eficiente de simular fluxos de caixa. O mercado dessas tintas especiais e patenteadas, tem hoje participação expressiva na Europa e, pelas características dos seus produtos, observa-se um alto potencial de entrada no Brasil. São tintas anticorrosivas isentas de pigmentos metálicos e solventes, indicadas para todos os segmentos industriais, com alta resistência química e mecânica e diversos tipos de acabamento. Uma das grandes vantagens das tintas que utilizam essa tecnologia é que o processo de cura não requer nenhum tipo de exposição ao sol, evaporação ou radiação ultravioleta, resultando em produtos com a fase de secagem mais rápida e vida útil muito maior. O modelo de negócio da fase 1 consiste na terceirização da produção onde, através da supervisão direta, será verificada a correta alocação dos insumos de modo garantir a qualidade das tintas. A forma como está representada traz vantagens como a redução de investimentos iniciais para implementação e a revelação de valiosas informações de mercado. / [en] The present document has as objective to analyze the investment of the fase one start up of a business based on special licenced industrial paint on the brazilian market. Such analysis was accomplished with the Real Options Theory based on a Monte Carlo Simulation process where the costs (uncertainty factors) are stochastic and will follow the Mean Reversion Model. Therefore, it will be able to quantify the management flexibility and how they affect the project value. Nowadays, this industrial paint market has expressive profit share in Europe and a great potential in Brazil. Those paints are anticorrosive and do not have metallic pigments or solvents. They are indicated for all industrial sectors with high chemistry and mechanic resistence application. One of the great advantages on this kind of paint is the lack of extensive time to become dry. The fase one business model is bases on an outside production and the correct formula will be obtained throught direct supervision of qualified internal employees. The bus iness model has advantages such as the reduction of the inicial investments and the development of market knowledge.

A Tecnologia da Informação (TI) tem sido considerada ao longo dos anos como importante ferramenta para obtenção de vantagem competitiva, o que tem motivado as empresas investirem cada vez mais em tecnologia. Entretanto, o volume e a variedade destes investimentos exigem dos gestores novas ferramentas e técnicas para auxiliar no processo de justificativa e gestão da TI. Uma técnica tem sido apontada como uma das alternativas para identificar, analisar e gerenciar os investimentos em TI: a Gestão do Portfólio de TI (GPTI). De acordo, porém, com pesquisas recentes, continua sendo um conceito subdesenvolvido tanto na academia como no meio empresarial. Diferentes autores apontam que algumas organizações têm ciência da existência da GPTI, mas a minoria implementa essa técnica nas suas organizações. Assim, para mostrar que a GPTI pode auxiliar a gestão e justificativa dos investimentos em TI frente aos riscos e retornos, foi estabelecido o objetivo desta pesquisa: Analisar o uso da técnica GPTI no auxilio da justificativa e gestão dos investimentos em TI nas organizações. O método escolhido foram estudos de caso com cinco empresas brasileiras de diferentes setores econômicos; realizando entrevistas com os oito principais executivos de TI dessas organizações. Além disso, foi realizada, em um caso, uma análise quantitativa, utilizando a Teoria de Opções Reais (TOR) combinada com as dimensões da GPTI para avaliar os investimentos, levando em conta o seu o risco e o retorno; e para auxiliar os gestores nas decisões sobre investimentos em TI. Foram encontrados diferentes níveis de utilizações da GPTI nas empresas analisadas em relação a planejamento, controle e avaliação dos investimentos em TI. A GPTI estava sendo utilizada recentemente pelas empresas ou encontrava-se na fase de estruturação do portfólio de TI. Em relação à utilização da TOR, determinou-se que ela pode auxiliar os gestores de TI na análise dos investimentos nas diferentes dimensões da GPTI e possibilitar uma flexibilidade maior das decisões e um maior aproveitamento das oportunidades oferecidas pelo mercado ou devido às necessidades da empresa. A dissertação contribui para a área de TI, pois explorou e analisou um tema pouco estudado no Brasil, que é a GPTI. E também contribuiu para o conhecimento empresarial, fornecendo subsídios para os gestores realizarem benchmarking de portfólio de TI de empresas brasileiras e para oferecer uma maneira de auxiliar nas decisões sobre TI. / IT has lately been considered an important tool to gain competitive advantage, a fact that has triggered increasing investments in technology in the companies. However, the number and variety of investments require that managers use new tools and techniques to help justify and manage IT processes. A technique has been chosen as an alternative to identify, analyze, and manage investments in IT: Information Technology Portfolio Management (ITPM). Nevertheless, recent studies have shown that this concept has not been thoroughly developed neither in the academy nor in companies. Different authors point out that some organizations are aware of ITPM, but few use it in their business. Therefore, to show that ITPM can be of use in the justification and management of investments in IT, the following research aim as established: to analyze the use of ITPM as a tool to help justify and manage investments in IT in organizations. The methodology comprises five case studies of five Brazilian companies in different economic sectors; eight IT managers were interviewed in these companies. Besides, a quantitative analysis was carried out with one of the case studies by using the Real Options Theory (ROT) associated with ITPM in order to assess investment risk and return and to help managers take decisions regarding their investments in IT. Different ITPM levels were found in the companies under investigation concerning planning, control, and evaluation in investments in IT. Results show that ITPM has been used for a short time or is in the structuring phase of the IT portfolio. Regarding the use of ROT, I have concluded that it can help IT managers analyze investments in different ITPM dimensions and enable more flexibility in decision-making and better use of the market opportunities, according to the company's needs. This thesis brings some contributions to the IT area since it explores and analyzes a theme – ITPM – which has got little research in Brazil; besides, it contributes to managerial knowledge so that managers can benchmark IT portfolios in Brazilian companies, and help the decision-making process in IT, an area that has got increasing importance in the companies lately.

一般企業所採用的資本預算方法為傳統的現金流量折現法(DCF)，其中最常見的為淨現值法(NPV)、內部報酬率法(IRR)。單純的使用傳統的資本預算評估方式來評估投資計畫，似乎不能根據環境的變遷、景氣的循環而對投資計畫做適度的修正，因此可能根據傳統資本預算評估方式的決策法則做出錯誤的決定，喪失不少好的投資機會。此時如果可以加入實質選擇權(Real Options)的觀念，或許能夠彌補傳統評估方式的不足。 因此，本研究主要以Trigeorgis所提出來的對數轉換二項式模型來作為評價實質選擇權的工具。此架構說明了可以針對投資計畫的特性，求算出該投資計畫所包含下列各種型態之實質選擇權，並可同時考慮各實質選擇權間的交互影響（interaction）的情形。再來承襲Trigeorgis（1996）的研究架構，分析了這些實質選擇權間，兩兩發生交互作用的原因以及其交互作用影響的情形。 按照傳統的NPV法來計算，此投資計畫的NPV為新台幣23.79億元，但是傳統的NPV法忽略了投資計畫本身所有的「彈性」的價值，我們在這裡分析出此投資計畫具有規模擴大的選擇權為新台幣65.64億元，大於傳統NPV法所計算出來的23.79億元。本研究將Trigeorgis（1991）的理論基礎帶到目前台灣最具競爭力的半導體產業中，藉此評估南亞科技公司晶圓二廠的投資計畫，並考慮其產業特性、分析了該投資計畫所具有實質選擇權的種類及價值。本研究結合了理論基礎與實務，也給予了後續研究者作為評估投資計畫的依據。 所以本研究將用來分析在一個半導體廠的投資計劃裡，根據高科技產業特性，評估此投資計劃包含了有哪幾種類型的實質選擇權，並且分別求算出它們的直正價值，和以傳統的NPV法來做個比較，期望能給經營管理者在決策評估上一個參考與依據。