From the Proceedings of the 1976 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 29-May 1, 1976, Tucson, Arizona / An environmental impact statement (EIS) is meant to be a predictor of the consequences of actions on the environment. However, uncertainties in the statements make it difficult to determine the reliability of the predictions and thus the consequences of the actions. Hence, use of an EIS could be counter-productive if the inherent uncertainties are not recognized and considered in its evaluation. Examination of several EIS's from a systems viewpoint is used to expose the following sources of uncertainty: (1) the identification of the components of the system, (2) the natural uncertainty of the inputs to the system and of the transformation functions producing the output, (3) uncertainties in the modeling of the system due to limitations of sample, economic and technological data. The above viewpoint is used to analyze the Colorado River Salinity Control Project EIS. Uncertainties are identified and classified and means for assessing and incorporating their effect on the environmental impact assessment are discussed.

Este documento apresenta o desenvolvimento de um modelo computacional para prover informações aos tomadores de decisão frente as alternativas de investimentos na expansão das redes de distribuição. Estas redes, por estarem localizadas em áreas urbanas e rurais, apresentam variadas topologias e número elevado de equipamentos na sua composição, dificultando a análise técnica e econômica diante do número elevado de variáveis envolvidas. O método proposto inclui a avaliação dos principais fatores que tem influência na qualidade da energia, incluindo os índices de confiabilidade. Adicionalmente, aspectos relacionados com os custos financeiros e eficiência são considerados para diferentes condições de operação. As decisões são feitas considerando o desempenho dos transformadores e requisitos exigidos em normas de confiabilidade da agência reguladora do sistema elétrico. Perda de vida em transformadores, perdas técnicas, níveis de tensão e fator de utilização são avaliados em conjunto com a confiabilidade no fornecimento de energia, a fim de combinar os resultados destes critérios com indicadores financeiros. O resultado é a obtenção de indicadores individuais e coletivos que facilitam a tomada de decisão no direcionamento de investimentos a curto e médio prazo, proporcionando de maneira prática e fácil a comparação entre alimentadores, subestações ou mesmo regiões que compõem um sistema de distribuição. Por fim, para verificação do método, realiza-se um estudo de caso num sistema de distribuição real onde são analisados e discutidos os resultados. / This document aims to present the development of a computational model to provide information for decision-making toward the alternatives of investments in distribution system planning. These networks, as they are located in urban and rural areas, can present varied topologies and large numbers of equipment in its arrangement, making it difficult in performing technical and economic analysis due to the large number of variables involved. The proposed method includes the evaluation of main factors that have influence on power quality, including the reliability indexes. Additionally, aspects related to economic costs and energy efficiency are considered for different operating conditions. The decision is made taking into account the performance of medium voltage transformers and distribution system reliability standards of Regulatory Agency requirements. Loss of life in transformers, technical losses, voltage levels, and utilization factor are assessment together with continuity and availability of power supply in order to combine the results of these criteria with financial indicators. The result is the achievement of individual and collective indicators that facilitate decision making in directing investments in the short and medium term, providing a practical and easy way to compare feeders, substations or even regions that comprise a distribution system. The methodology is applied in a real distribution system, and the result are analyzed and discussed.

Este documento apresenta o desenvolvimento de um modelo computacional para prover informações aos tomadores de decisão frente as alternativas de investimentos na expansão das redes de distribuição. Estas redes, por estarem localizadas em áreas urbanas e rurais, apresentam variadas topologias e número elevado de equipamentos na sua composição, dificultando a análise técnica e econômica diante do número elevado de variáveis envolvidas. O método proposto inclui a avaliação dos principais fatores que tem influência na qualidade da energia, incluindo os índices de confiabilidade. Adicionalmente, aspectos relacionados com os custos financeiros e eficiência são considerados para diferentes condições de operação. As decisões são feitas considerando o desempenho dos transformadores e requisitos exigidos em normas de confiabilidade da agência reguladora do sistema elétrico. Perda de vida em transformadores, perdas técnicas, níveis de tensão e fator de utilização são avaliados em conjunto com a confiabilidade no fornecimento de energia, a fim de combinar os resultados destes critérios com indicadores financeiros. O resultado é a obtenção de indicadores individuais e coletivos que facilitam a tomada de decisão no direcionamento de investimentos a curto e médio prazo, proporcionando de maneira prática e fácil a comparação entre alimentadores, subestações ou mesmo regiões que compõem um sistema de distribuição. Por fim, para verificação do método, realiza-se um estudo de caso num sistema de distribuição real onde são analisados e discutidos os resultados. / This document aims to present the development of a computational model to provide information for decision-making toward the alternatives of investments in distribution system planning. These networks, as they are located in urban and rural areas, can present varied topologies and large numbers of equipment in its arrangement, making it difficult in performing technical and economic analysis due to the large number of variables involved. The proposed method includes the evaluation of main factors that have influence on power quality, including the reliability indexes. Additionally, aspects related to economic costs and energy efficiency are considered for different operating conditions. The decision is made taking into account the performance of medium voltage transformers and distribution system reliability standards of Regulatory Agency requirements. Loss of life in transformers, technical losses, voltage levels, and utilization factor are assessment together with continuity and availability of power supply in order to combine the results of these criteria with financial indicators. The result is the achievement of individual and collective indicators that facilitate decision making in directing investments in the short and medium term, providing a practical and easy way to compare feeders, substations or even regions that comprise a distribution system. The methodology is applied in a real distribution system, and the result are analyzed and discussed.

Este documento apresenta o desenvolvimento de um modelo computacional para prover informações aos tomadores de decisão frente as alternativas de investimentos na expansão das redes de distribuição. Estas redes, por estarem localizadas em áreas urbanas e rurais, apresentam variadas topologias e número elevado de equipamentos na sua composição, dificultando a análise técnica e econômica diante do número elevado de variáveis envolvidas. O método proposto inclui a avaliação dos principais fatores que tem influência na qualidade da energia, incluindo os índices de confiabilidade. Adicionalmente, aspectos relacionados com os custos financeiros e eficiência são considerados para diferentes condições de operação. As decisões são feitas considerando o desempenho dos transformadores e requisitos exigidos em normas de confiabilidade da agência reguladora do sistema elétrico. Perda de vida em transformadores, perdas técnicas, níveis de tensão e fator de utilização são avaliados em conjunto com a confiabilidade no fornecimento de energia, a fim de combinar os resultados destes critérios com indicadores financeiros. O resultado é a obtenção de indicadores individuais e coletivos que facilitam a tomada de decisão no direcionamento de investimentos a curto e médio prazo, proporcionando de maneira prática e fácil a comparação entre alimentadores, subestações ou mesmo regiões que compõem um sistema de distribuição. Por fim, para verificação do método, realiza-se um estudo de caso num sistema de distribuição real onde são analisados e discutidos os resultados. / This document aims to present the development of a computational model to provide information for decision-making toward the alternatives of investments in distribution system planning. These networks, as they are located in urban and rural areas, can present varied topologies and large numbers of equipment in its arrangement, making it difficult in performing technical and economic analysis due to the large number of variables involved. The proposed method includes the evaluation of main factors that have influence on power quality, including the reliability indexes. Additionally, aspects related to economic costs and energy efficiency are considered for different operating conditions. The decision is made taking into account the performance of medium voltage transformers and distribution system reliability standards of Regulatory Agency requirements. Loss of life in transformers, technical losses, voltage levels, and utilization factor are assessment together with continuity and availability of power supply in order to combine the results of these criteria with financial indicators. The result is the achievement of individual and collective indicators that facilitate decision making in directing investments in the short and medium term, providing a practical and easy way to compare feeders, substations or even regions that comprise a distribution system. The methodology is applied in a real distribution system, and the result are analyzed and discussed.

Dans ce travail, nous étudions l’évaluation de la fiabilité, la modélisation et l’optimisation de systèmes à états arbitraires à incertitude épistémique. Tout d'abord, une approche universelle de modélisation à l'état arbitraire est proposée afin d'étudier efficacement les systèmes industriels modernes aux structures, mécanismes de fonctionnement et exigences de fiabilité de plus en plus complexes. De simples implémentations de modèles de fiabilité binaires, continus ou multi-états traditionnels ont montré leurs lacunes en termes de manque de généralité lors de la modélisation de structures, systèmes, réseaux et systèmes de systèmes industriels modernes et complexes. Dans ce travail, nous intéressons aussi particulièrement aux systèmes monotones, non seulement parce que la monotonie est apparue couramment dans la plupart des modèles de fiabilité standard, mais aussi qu’une propriété mathématique aussi simple permet une simplification énorme de nombreux problèmes extrêmement complexes. Ensuite, pour les systèmes de fiabilité monotones à états arbitraires, nous essayons de résoudre les problèmes suivants, qui sont apparus dans les principes mêmes de la modélisation mathématique: 1. L’évaluation de la fiabilité dans un environnement incertain épistémique avec des structures hiérarchiques être exploitées par toute approche de programmation 2; l'optimisation de la fiabilité / maintenance pour les systèmes à grande fiabilité avec incertitude épistémique. / In this work, we study the reliability assessment, modeling and optimization of arbitrary-state systems with epistemic uncertainty. Firstly, a universal arbitrary-state modelling approach is proposed, in order to effectively study the modern industrial systems with increasingly complicated structures, operation mechanisms and reliability demands. Simple implementations of traditional binary, continuous or multi-state reliability models have been showing their deficiencies in lack of generality, when modelling such complex modern industrial structures, systems, networks and systems-of-systems. In this work, we are also particularly interested in monotone systems, not only because monotonicity commonly appeared in most of the standard reliability models, but also that such a simple mathematical property allows a huge simplification to many extremely complex problems. Then, for the arbitrary-state monotone reliability systems, we try to solve the following challenges that appeared in its very fundamentals of mathematical modeling: 1. The reliability assessment under epistemic uncertain environment with hierarchy structures; 2. The reliability/maintenance optimization for large reliability systems under epistemic uncertainty.

The transmission of electric power over long distances has historically posed challenges. However, the advent of high-voltage engineering has not only addressed distance barriers and power losses in electricity transmission and distribution, but it has also significantly improved the efficiency and transmission capacity of power grids. However, the use of high-voltage techniques has presented new challenges in identifying suitable insulator materials capable of withstanding high electrical stresses associated with elevated voltages. A significant issue arising from these extreme electrical stresses is the occurrence of partial discharges (PDs). Those are electrical sparks or pulses in the magnitude order of pico- or nano-coulombs (pC or nC) emitted from high voltage conductors due to the presence of impurities, contaminants or defects in their insulation system. PDs pose a serious threat to the insulation material due to their aggressive nature in breaking down weak points or links inside the insulation system leading to short-circuit and system failure. Means of offline or conventional testing of power assets against partial discharges has proven to be extremely precise but it is often an unavailable option since it requires a total power shutdown. In this paper, the performance of existing online PD detection techniques is tested and evaluated in terms of performance against conventional PD monitoring methods. Five non-intrusive detectors including an infrared camera (IR-camera), an ultrasonic sensor , a temperature and relative humidity sensor (TRH-sensor), high-frequency current transformer (HFCT sensor) and transient earth voltage antenna (TEV-antenna) were tested in a laboratory experiment for detection of PDs emitted by artificially-created defects inside a medium-voltage cable termination. The results showed varying sensitivity levels among the sensors, with the HFCT sensor demonstrating the highest sensitivity to all types and magnitudes of PDs. The IR-camera and ultrasonic sensor also showed potential, while the TRH-sensor exhibited poor sensitivity. The TEV-antenna had limited reliability. The findings of this study are that the HFCT system proved to be highly reliable for online PD monitoring, followed by the IR-camera and ultrasonic sensor, while the TEV-antenna and TRH-sensor showed lower reliability. In future work, further research on testing the HFCT system on-site can be conducted along with performing longer thermographic detection tests using the IR-camera to further investigate their potential in online PD detection. / Överföring av elektrisk kraft över långa avstånd har historiskt sett varit utmanande. Införandet av högspänningsteknik har inte bara övervunnit avståndsbarriärer och effektförluster vid överföring och distribution av elkraft, utan det har också avsevärt förbättrat kraftnätens effektivitet och överföringskapacitet. Användningen av högspänningsteknik har dock också inneburit nya utmaningar såsom utveckling av lämpliga isoleringsmaterial som tål höga elektriska påfrestningar vid höga spänningar. Ett betydande problem som härrör från dessa extrema elektriska spänningar är förekomsten av partiella urladdningar. Dessa urladdningar identifieras vara elektriska gnistor eller pulser i storleksordningen pico- eller nanocoulombs (pC eller nC) som emitteras från högspänningsledare på grund av närvaron av föroreningar eller defekter i närliggande isoleringssystem. PD:er utgör ett allvarligt hot mot isoleringsmaterialet på grund av deras aggressiva natur för att bryta ner svaga punkter eller länkar i isoleringssystemet, vilket kan leda till kortslutningar och systemfel. Konventionella metoder för att testa nätkomponenter mot partiella urladdningar har visat sig vara extremt noggranna, men detta är ofta inte ett tillgängligt alternativ eftersom det kräver ett totalt strömavbrott för att utföras. I denna studie testades och utvärderades prestandan hos befintliga metoder för online-detektering av partiell urladdning i förhållande till konventionella övervakningsmetoder. Fem icke-invasiva detektorer, inklusive en infraröd kamera, en ultraljudssensor, en temperatur- och relativ fuktighetssensor, en högfrekvent strömtransformator och en transient jordspänningsantenn, testades i ett laboratorieexperiment för att upptäcka partiella urladdningar orsakade av artificiellt skapade defekter i en mellanspänningskabelavslutning. Resultaten visade varierande känslighetsnivåer bland sensorerna, där högfrekventa strömtransformatorn visade den högsta känsligheten för alla typer och storlekar av partiella urladdningar. Den infraröda kameran och ultraljudssensorn visade också potential, medan temperatur- och relativ fuktighetssensorn visade låg känslighet. Den transienta jordspänningsantennen hade begränsad tillförlitlighet. Slutsatsen av denna studie är att den högfrekventa strömtransformatorn visade sig vara mycket tillförlitlig för online-övervakning av partiella urladdningar, följt av den infraröda kameran och ultraljudssensorn, medan den transienta jordspänningsantennen, temperatur- och fuktighetssensorn visade lägre tillförlitlighet. I framtida forskning kan ytterligare undersökningar av det högfrekventa strömtransformatorsystemet utföras på plats, tillsammans med längre termografiska detekteringstester med hjälp av den infraröda kameran för att ytterligare undersöka deras potential för onlinedetektering av partiella urladdningar.