Risk based approaches are gaining currency as industry looks for rational, efficient and flexible approaches to managing their structures and equipment. When applied to inspection and maintenance of industrial assets, risk based approaches differ from other approaches mainly in their assessment of failure in its wider context and ramifications. These advanced techniques provide more insight into the causes and avoidance of structural failure and competing risks, as well as the resources needed to manage them. Measuring risk is a challenge that is being met with state of the art technology, skills, knowledge and experience. The thesis presents risk based approaches to solving two specific types of problem in the management of offshore structures and equipments. The first type is finding the optimum timing of an asset life management action such that financial benefit is maximised, considering the cost of the action and the risk (quantified in monetary terms) of not undertaking that action. The approach presented here is applied to managing remedial action in offshore wind farms and specifically to corroded wind turbine tower structures. The second type of problem is how to optimise resources using risk based criteria for managing competing demands. The approach presented here is applied to stocking spares in the shipping sector, where the cost of holding spares is balanced against the risk of failing to meet demands for spares. Risk is the leitmotiv running through this thesis. The approaches discussed here will find application in a variety of situations where competing risks are being managed within constraints.

本篇論文主要探討不同風險因子對於壽險業安定基金保費之影響。首先建立一個評價安定基金保費之機制，此模型考慮壽險公司投資決策、負債組合、監理寬容以及市場不確定性。接著使用蒙地卡羅模擬不同風險因子變動之下的公平保費。其數值分析顯示壽險公司之權益組合占資產比例、槓桿、監理寬容期間以及監理標準皆對公平保費有正向之影響。 / In this study, a valuation model is derived to price the fair premium in the insurance guarantee fund incorporating investment selection, liability portfolio, regulatory forbearance and market uncertainty. Then, Monte Carlo method is employed to measure the fair premium based on various important pricing factors. Finally, the numerical experiments and sensitivity analysis are conducted to investigate their impacts on the premiums. The results of our study indicate that the equity shares in the asset portfolio, the leverage ratio of the firm, the grace period and the tolerance of the capital threshold have the positive impacts on the risk-based premiums in the proposed ex-ante insurance guarantee fund scheme.

美國全國保險監理協會為了確保產險公司的清償能力，及當產險公司資本比率低於某一定比率時監理機關可以實施某些管制措施，而於1994於產險業實施風險基礎資本額(RBC)制度。但由於提供金融服務的功能性障礙逐漸降低，以及產險產業的競爭日趨激烈。因此，產險公司必須在清償能力和效率目標間找出一個平衡點，在符合成本效率的情況之下持有適切的非風險性資產並提高股東權益比率。因此，本研究主要在探討RBC之實施是否會對美國產險公司之成本效率帶來影響。 本研究以美國產險業的RBC實施年度，也就是1994年為分界，檢測372家美國產險公司在1990至1998年間成本效率之趨勢變化。 研究結果指出，在RBC實施之後，產險公司的成本效率及配置效率都有明顯的下降趨勢，但技術效率卻沒有太大的變動趨勢。此外研究結果也顯示產品集中程度與成本效率及配置效率呈顯著負向關係。市佔率與成本效率、技術效率以及配置效率呈現負相關。股份公司在成本效率與配置效率高於相互公司。另外，總資產規模與各項效率呈現顯著正相關，代表規模愈大的公司愈能有效率地經營。研究結論顯示RBC實施之後，產險公司為因應RBC之要求，可能會調整風險性之投資，但也導致產險業者成本效率及配置效率之降低。 / The risk-based capital (RBC) requirements developed by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) were intended to raise the safety net for insurers and to provide regulators with the authority to intervene when capital falls below a minimum standard of capital adequacy that is related to risk. Since the less functional barrier of financial service and the greater competition among the property-liability insurers which forced the property-liability insurers to find a balance between solvency and efficiency so that the insurers can have enough cost efficiency and keep maintaining adequate non risk assets as well as rising shareholders’ equity. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to examine the cost efficiency change after property-liability insurers applied RBC standards. To do this, we examine 372 property-liability insurers’ data from 1990-1998 and compare the efficiency change before and after 1994, the RBC standards effective year. This study applies Data Envelopment Analysis and uses the grand frontier approach to measure the cost, allocative and technical efficiency. The statistical results reveal that after applied RBC standards cost and allocative efficiency had significant decline, but no change in technical efficiency. The Tobit regression statistical results indicate that the product concentration has a negative effect on cost efficiency and allocative efficiency; and the market share has a negative relationship with cost efficiency, technical efficiency and allocative efficiency. Cost efficiency and allocative efficiency of incorporate companies are higher than that of mutual companies. Furthermore, the positive relationship between the firm size and efficiency suggested that the larger the size the better efficiency. Overall results imply property-liability insurers may be forced to adjust their investments risk, however, such adjustment might be contributed to less cost and allocative efficiency after applied to RBC standards requirements.

Submitted by JÚLIO HEBER SILVA (julioheber@yahoo.com.br) on 2016-11-08T12:14:26Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Guilherme Caetano de Brito - 2016.pdf: 2038986 bytes, checksum: 45209575b8bb20320863307b8d8cb5a4 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Jaqueline Silva (jtas29@gmail.com) on 2016-11-08T17:40:10Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Guilherme Caetano de Brito - 2016.pdf: 2038986 bytes, checksum: 45209575b8bb20320863307b8d8cb5a4 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-11-08T17:40:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Guilherme Caetano de Brito - 2016.pdf: 2038986 bytes, checksum: 45209575b8bb20320863307b8d8cb5a4 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-09-10 / The brazilian public administration has undergone several renovations in order to modernize the management. The latest reform, called Management Reform, innovated there instituit elements focused on the search for efficiency, results based management and the descentralization of activities. As a consequence, the internal control stopped focusing on the formalismo of the acts and directed its activities, in a decentralized manner trough internal audit units, for evaluation the achievement of objectives and risk management of public organizations. The audits from the perspectiva of risks is still a new topic in the public sector and was regulated only in 2015. Under the Ministry of Education there are federal institutions of higher education (FIHE) that adopt the risk-based audit (RBA) methodology for some years, however, there are no studies on the impacts of adoption of the methodology, or even on the best way to develop the implementation process. The objective of this study is to identify the benefits and challenges in the implementation of RBA in FIHE and propose an action plan for implementation RBA at the Instituto Federal Goiano (IF Goiano). Data were obtained through a questionnaire applied to internal auditors of FIHE and statiscally treated using fator analysis technque to extract factors taht represent groups of benefits and challenges in the implementation of RBA. They were extracted two factors that represent benefits and three factors that represent challenges in the implementation of RBA, especially the challenge of existence of inadequate risk management structure in the organization. Finally, it proposed na action plan for implementation of ABR in IF Goiano, containing actions to overcome the challenges previously identified. / A administração pública brasileira passou por várias reformas com objetivo de modernização da gestão. A mais recente reforma, denominada Reforma Gerencial, inovou ao instituir elementos voltados para a busca pela eficiência, a gestão por resultados e a descentralização das atividades. Como consequência, o controle interno deixou de focar no formalismo dos atos e direcionou suas atividades, de forma descentralizada por meio das unidades de auditoria interna, para a avaliação do alcance dos objetivos e da gestão de riscos das organizações públicas. A realização de auditorias sob a ótica do risco é um tema ainda novo no setor público e foi regulamentado somente no ano de 2015. No âmbito do Ministério da Educação há instituições federais de ensino superior (IFES) que adotam a metodologia de Auditoria Baseada em Riscos (ABR) há alguns anos, entretanto, não há estudos sobre os impactos resultantes da adoção da metodologia ou, ainda, sobre a melhor forma de desenvolver o processo de implantação. O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar os benefícios e desafios na implantação da ABR nas IFES e então propor um plano de ação para implantação da ABR no Instituto Federal Goiano (IF Goiano). Os dados foram obtidos por meio de questionário aplicado a auditores internos das IFES e, em seguida, tratados estatisticamente com a utilização da técnica de análise fatorial para extrair fatores que representem grupos de benefícios e desafios na implantação da ABR. Foram extraídos dois fatores que representam benefícios e três fatores que representam desafios na implantação da ABR, com destaque para o desafio da existência de estrutura de gestão de riscos inadequada na organização. Por fim, foi proposto um plano de ação para implantação da ABR no IF Goiano contendo ações para superar os desafios identificados anteriormente

Investment managers are entrusted with clients assets and should act with due care and diligence when dealing with it. The regulation of investment managers does not preclude the possibility that they can defraud their clients. The question posed by this research is whether the regulator can as part of its risk-based supervision methodology apply a fraud auditing approach to identify possible investment fraud schemes. The regulatory mandate and powers to pro-actively detect fraud is considered as well as the changes required to the regulator’s methodologies. / Dissertation (MPhil)--University of Pretoria, 2011. / Accounting / unrestricted

Svenska livbolag har varit en av de större kapitalplacerarna på den svenska fastighetsmarknaden under de senaste fem åren. Livbolagen förvaltar kapital åt sina försäkringstagare som förväntar sig få utbetalningar antingen genom en traditionell försäkring, där livbolagen utlovar en bestämd avkastning per år eller genom att erbjuda fondförsäkringar. Den traditionella livförsäkringen inbringar stora summor premier som måste investeras i olika tillgångsslag. Placeringstillgångarna kommer att bli underställda det nya Solvens II direktivet som innebär att livbolagen måste anpassa sina tillgångar efter sina åtaganden. Syftet med den här rapporten är att utreda vilka effekter Solvens II direktivet kan tänkas ha på de svenska livbolagen och hur livbolagen kan komma att förändra sina portföljeallokeringar till följd av det nya regelverket. Rapporten avgränsas till livbolagens fastighetsrelaterade tillgångar och kommer primärt behandla effekten av ett riskbaserat kapitalkrav på olika fastighetsexponeringarna. Avslutningsvis diskuteras ifall livbolagens agerande till följd av direktivet kan komma att påverka fastighetsmarknaden. Utredningen kring förslaget har pågått sedan 2006 och implementeringen förväntas ske kring 2016. Dock så har både Europaparlamentet och Finansinspektionen gett indikationer på att implementeringen kan komma att förskjutas ytterligare. Utöver kapitalkravet kommer Solvens II leda till en mer betungande rapportering samt strukturella förändringar inom livbolagens ledning. Uppsatsen kommer fram till att ingen fastighetsinvestering kommer att premieras för samtliga livbolag men att de kan premieras en fastighetsinvestering för enskilda livbolag beroende på vad de har i sin befintliga portfölj och hur investeringen kan komma att påverka diversifieringseffekten. Eftersom livbolagens portföljer är relativt olika kommer Solvens II inte att påverka den svenska fastighetsmarknaden och om den så var fallet skulle detta redan ha skett eftersom direktivet har varit på agendan sedan 2006. / The Swedish life insurance companies have been one of the major capital investors in the Swedish real estate market in the past five years. The life insurance companies manages capital for its policyholders who expect to get payments either through a traditional insurance where the life insurance companies promise a fixed return per year or by providing a unit-linked insurance. The traditional life insurance brings in huge amounts of premiums that must be invested in different assets. The allocation of the assets will be subjected to the new Solvency II directive, which means that life insurance companies must adapt their assets according to their commitments. The purpose of this report is to investigate the effects the Solvency II directive could have on the Swedish life insurance companies and how life insurance companies may change their allocation of their portfolio as result of these new regulations. The report is limited to the life insurance companies' real estate-related assets and will primarily deal with the impact of risk-based capital requirements for various real estate exposures. Finally, we discuss if the life insurance companies' behavior may affect the Swedish real estate market as a result. The investigation about the proposal has been ongoing since 2006 and implementation is expected to occur around 2016. However, the European Parliament and the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority have given indications that the implementation could be postponed. In addition to capital requirements, Solvency II will lead to a more stringent reporting and structural changes in the life insurance companies' management. The main findings in this report are that none of the real estate asset classes will be preferred for all life insurances companies, however some asset classes may be preferred from the individual companies perspective with regard of what their present portfolio contains and how the inclusion that asset may affect the diversifying effect. Since every life insurance company portfolio contains a different mix of assets the Solvency II directive will not affect the Swedish real estate market and if that were the case it would already have happened because the directive have been on the agenda since 2006.

Prediction and control methodologies for ground deformation due to underground mining (commonly referred to as mine subsidence) provide engineers with the means to minimize negative effects on the surface. Due to the complexity of subsidence-related movements, numerous techniques exist for predicting mine subsidence behavior. This thesis focuses on the development, implementation, and validation of numerous enhanced subsidence prediction methodologies. To facilitate implementation and validation, the improved methodologies have been incorporated into the Surface Deformation Prediction System (SDPS), a computer program based primarily on the influence function method for subsidence prediction. The methodologies include dynamic subsidence prediction, alternative model calibration capability, and enhanced risk-based damage assessment. Also, the influence function method is further validated using measured case study data. In addition to discussion of previous research for each of the enhanced methodologies, a significant amount of background information on subsidence and subsidence-related topics is provided. The results of the research presented in this thesis are expected to benefit the mining industry, as well as initiate ideas for future research. / Master of Science

No description available.

This research investigates tolerance strategies for modular systems on a project specific basis. The objective of the proposed research is to form a guideline for optimizing the construction costs/risks with the aim of developing an optimal design of resilient modular systems. The procedures for achieving the research objective included: (a) development of 3D structural analysis models of the modules, (b) strength/stability investigation of the structure, (c) developing the fabrication cost function, (e) checking elastic and inelastic distortion, and (f) constructing the site-fit risk functions. The total site-fit risk function minimizes the cost/risk associated with fabrication, transportation; alignment, rework, and safety, while maximizing stiffness in terms of story drift values for site re-alignment and fitting alternatives. The fabrication cost function was developed by collecting 61 data points for the investigated module chassis using the SAP2000 software while reducing the initial section sizes, in addition to the fabrication costs at each step (61 steps). With the reduction of the structural reinforcement, story drift values increase, therefore there will be a larger distortion in the module. This generic module design procedure models a trade-off between the amount of reinforcement and expected need for significant field alterations. Structural design software packages such as SAP2000, AutoCAD, and Autodesk were used in order to model and test the module chassis. This research hypothesizes that the influential factors in the site-fit risk functions are respectively: fabrication, transportation, alignment, safety, and rework costs/risks. In addition, the site-fit risk function provides a theoretical range of possible solutions for the construction industry. The maximum allowable modular out-of-tolerance value, which requires the minimum amount of cost with respect to the defined function, can be configured using this methodology. This research concludes that over-reinforced or lightly-reinforced designs are not the best solution for mitigating risks, and reducing costs. For this reason the site-fit risk function will provide a range of pareto-optimal building solutions with respect to the fabrication, transportation, safety, alignment, and rework costs/risks.

Martin Ivarsson, manager and part owner at Landeryd’s Mechanical Workshop (LMW), Landeryd, Sweden, initiated this project. This because of a new released ISO 9001 version that LMW has to implement before the 15th of September 2018 to remain certified. Since LMW is ISO 9001:2008 certified the project members only needed to identify the differences among the 2015 and 2008 version to see what LMW has to do to get certified. There are approximately 1.1 million ISO 9001 certificates issued worldwide. An ISO 9001 certification increase organizations ability to satisfy customer needs and customers can rely on that the products and services provided are of consistently good quality. ISO 9001 can also work as a tool to streamline the organization’s processes and make them more efficient. Since the ISO 9001 is reviewed every five year it helps organizations to keep current in an ever- changing world. Landeryd’s Mechanical Workshop has been ISO 9001 certified since 2002 and the “ISO- think” is deeply rooted within the company. LMW is a small owner-controlled company with only 18 employees. ISO 9001:2015 is applicable on different kinds of organizations in various scales. Comparing to previous versions of ISO 9001 the new version is more adaptable. This makes it more beneficial for the organizations but harder for the auditors that certifies. One major conclusion is that LMW will have more freedom of document handling with the new ISO version. This report highlights LMW’s status today in accordance to the new ISO 9001 version, and estimates how much effort that is needed for a successful revision. Readers of this report will benefit from the results, since much is applicable on all types of organizations or companies.