[pt] A previsão de produção é uma das etapas mais críticas do planejamento de curto prazo das empresas de exploração e produção de petróleo. O volume de petróleo que será produzido, denominado meta de produção, influencia diretamente todas as ações das empresas e tem crítico impacto em relação ao mercado. Percebe-se, portanto, a importância da aplicação de modelos que permitam considerar incertezas e avaliar o risco destas previsões. Esta modelagem estocástica tem sido realizada através de um modelo de simulação que considera quatro dimensões de variáveis: Potencial Produtivo Instalado, Entrada de Novos Poços, Parada Programada para Manutenção e Eficiência Operacional. Dentre as dimensões do modelo, a Entrada de Novos Poços é uma das mais sensíveis ao resultado final da previsão por apresentar grande incerteza. Desse modo, este trabalho tem por objetivo desenvolver um sistema de inferência fuzzy para prever a data de entrada em produção de poços de petróleo. O sistema é concebido integrado ao modelo de simulação visando aumentar a sua precisão. Os resultados mostram que o sistema de inferência fuzzy é aplicável à previsão da entrada de novos poços e que o seu uso eleva a acurácia das previsões de produção. / [en] Production forecasting is one of the most critical stages in short-term planning in upstream oil companies. The oil volume that will be produced, called production target, directly influences all companies actions and impact critically their market image. Therefore, it is noticed the importance of using models to consider uncertainties to evaluate production forecasting risks. This stochastic approach has been done through a simulation model which consider four dimensions of variables: installed production potential, new wells entry, scheduled maintenance program, and operational efficiency. Among those dimensions, the new wells entry is one of the most sensitive to the simulation results, because of its high degree of uncertainty. Thus, this work aims to develop a fuzzy inference system to forecast the new wells production start date. The system is designed integrated to the simulation model in order to increase its accuracy. The results show that the fuzzy inference system can be used to forecast wells production start date and its use increases oil production forecasting accuracy.

The automotive industry is in the midst of historic change: changing consumer preferences, new technologies and tougher sustainability requirements. Car manufacturers are forced to transform their businesses fundamentally while striking a balance between current needs and future opportunities. In recent years, collaborative product development has become an important business strategy as a means to respond to the changing market conditions. Despite many benefits, however, collaborations with suppliers place substantial pressure on the focal firm as joint efforts must be managed and coordinated carefully. The purpose of this thesis was to explore the feasibility of outsourcing coordination of supplier involvement in collaborative product development projects. The purpose was operationalized by a research question seeking to identify characteristic risk factors in the aforementioned outsourcing context. Thus, the thesis was built upon a theoretical foundation of the interface between collaborative product development, outsourcing and risk management theories. In the methodology, a multi-step research design was taken that included reviewing documents, observing participants as well as conducting interviews and workshops. The analysis yielded a comprehensive overview of relevant risk factors in outsourcing coordination of supplier involvement in collaborative product development projects. The outsourcing practice has proven to be inherently risky as a total of 10 different risk factors were identified and their characteristics assessed. The research has shown that both effective risk management strategies and adjustment to corporate regulations and policies are required if the outsourcing practice is to be implemented within the contextual setting studied in the thesis. The research findings have further contributed to the existing body of literature on relevant outsourcing risk factors. / Bilindustrin är mitt i en historisk förändring: förändrade kundpreferenser, nya teknologier och hårdare krav på hållbarhet. Biltillverkare är tvingade till fundamentala förändringar av deras företag samtidigt som de måste hålla en balans mellan nuvarande behov och framtida möjligheter. Under senare år har kollaborativ produktutveckling blivit en viktig affärsstrategi för att svara på föränderliga marknadsförhållanden. Trots många fördelar skapar kollaborationer med leverantörer betydande tryck på fokalföretaget där alla förenade insatser måste ledas och koordineras försiktigt. Syftet med avhandlingen var att utforska möjligheten att outsourca koordinering av leverantörsinblandning i kollaborativa produktutvecklingsprojekt. Syftet blev operationaliserat av en forskningsfråga som sökte att identifiera karaktäristiska riskfaktorer i den tidigare nämnda outsourcing kontexten. Således var avhandlingen byggd på en teoretisk grund av gränssnittet mellan kollaborativ produktutveckling, outsourcing och riskhanteringsteorier. I metoden togs en flerstegad forskningsdesign som inkluderade att granska dokument, observera deltagare samt utföra intervjuer och workshops. Analysen gav en omfattande översikt av relevanta riskfaktorer i outsourcing av koordinering av leverantörsinblandning i kollaborativa produktutvecklingsprojekt. Bruket av outsourcing har bevisats att innebära risker, totalt 10 olika riskfaktorer blev identifierade och deras karaktäristik bedömdes. Forskningen har visat att både effektiva riskhanteringsstrategier och justering av företagsbestämmelser behövs om bruket av outsourcing ska kunna implementeras inom den kontext som studerades inom avhandlingen. Fynden i forskningen har bidragit till den existerande litteraturen om riskfaktorer i outsourcing

Shipping is the world’s largest mode of transportation, considering mass moved a distance: it is the most e˙effective way to carry large volumes far. In order for the shipping industry to keep its position and develop even further, efforts are made to increase efficiency and reduce the environmental footprint from the industry. More efficient ships, reduced fuel consumption, use of alternative fuels and exhaust gas treatment are some of the choices to reduce shipping’s environmental footprint and achieve the sustainability goal established by EU and enforced by the International Maritime Organization.Throughout the thesis, en evaluation of 18 energy efficiency measures and 4 alternative fuels is performed. Energy efficiency measures reduce a ship’s fuel consumption and alternative fuels substitutes fossil fuels with higher content of environmentally harmful content. The measures and fuels, covered in the study, are evaluated for nine representative container ship´s. Data from year 2016 are used for the nine container ships. The current procedure followed for new investments is analyzed for all measures and fuels for each ship, focused on the financial study of each measure and fuel. The results are then included in a risk and benefit analysis that introduces external aspects, not included in the traditional financial evaluation, that include: those that influence the ship and the ship’s environment and those affected by the ship’s operations.The main goal is to evaluate the possibilities to reduce emissions by considering these aspects and involve more stakeholders in the investment of measures and fuels for shipping to keep its position as the most efficient mode of transportation.

Cooperative Construction in Schools in California John M. Donley The construction industry has lost efficiency since 1964, while becoming increasingly more litigious. Schools in California can ill afford the time to allow the construction industry time to fully evolve. It may take years or decades to fully improve the efficiency of, and reduce the conflict within the construction industry. At the same time, the construction industry has developed new processes to improve efficiency and reduce conflict. These processes are beginning to be broadly embraced by the industry. They all contain cooperative elements. Taken together they represent a new organizing principle for the construction industry, cooperative construction. Also concurrently, a previously little-used provision of the California Education Code allows schools freedom to contract for school construction in nearly any reasonable contractual arrangement they see fit for their project and district needs. As a result, school districts in California have developed a new system of project delivery. They are borrowing from here and there and inventing new tools to make projects work for them. Again, cooperative elements at the hearts of the processes.

Enterprises with a global supply network are at risk of lost revenue as a result of disruptive disasters at supplier locations. Various strategies exist for addressing this risk, and a variety of types of research has been done regarding the identification, assessment and response to the risk of disruption in a supply chain network. This thesis establishes a decision model to support Business Continuity Planning at the first-tier supplier level. The decision model incorporates discrete-event simulation of supply chain networks (through Simio software), Monte Carlo simulation, and risk index optimization. After modeling disruption vulnerability in a supply chain network, costs of implementing all combinations of Business Continuity Plans are ranked and then tested in discrete-event simulation for further insight into inventory levels, unmet customer demand, production loss and related costs. A case study demonstrates the implementation of the decision support process and tests a historical set of data from a large manufacturing company. Discrete-event simulation modeling of loss is confirmed to be accurate. The relevance of the model concept is upheld and recommendations for future work are made.

Several regions of the Western United States utilize statistical binary classification models to predict and manage debris flow initiation probability after wildfires. As the occurrence of wildfires and large intensity rainfall events increase, so has the frequency in which development occurs in the steep and mountainous terrain where these events arise. This resulting intersection brings with it an increasing need to derive improved results from existing models, or develop new models, to reduce the economic and human impacts that debris flows may bring. Any development or change to these models could also theoretically increase the ease of collection, processing, and implementation into new areas. Generally, existing models rely on inputs as a function of rainfall intensity, fire effects, terrain type, and surface characteristics. However, no variable in these models directly accounts for the shear stiffness of the soil. This property when considered with the respect to the state of the loading of the sediment informs the likelihood of particle dislocation, contractive or dilative volume changes, and downslope movement that triggers debris flows. This study proposes incorporating shear wave velocity (in the form of slope-based thirty-meter shear wave velocity, Vs30) to account for this shear stiffness. As commonly used in seismic soil liquefaction analysis, the shear stiffness is measured via shear wave velocity which is the speed of the vertically propagating horizontal shear wave through sediment. This spatially mapped variable allows for broad coverage in the watersheds of interest. A logistic regression is used to then compare the new variable against what is currently used in predictive post-fire debris flow triggering models. Resulting models indicated improvement in some measures of statistical utility through receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) and threat score analysis, a method of ranking models based on true/false positive and negative results. However, the integration of Vs30 offers similar utility to current models in additional metrics, suggesting that this input can benefit from further refinement. Further suggestions are additionally offered to further improve the use of Vs30 through in-situ measurements of surface shear wave propagation and integration into Vs30 datasets through a possible transfer function. Additional discussion into input variables and their impact on created models is also included.

В диссертационном исследовании рассмотрены вопросы разработки концепции детско-юношеской спортивной школы по биатлону, направленной на реализацию программ дополнительного образования детей по биатлону. В результате разработана концепция, учитывающая организационно-правовую форму ДЮСШ, целевую аудиторию, анализ рынка конкурентов. Полученные в результате исследования положительные результаты позволяют рекомендовать разработанную концепцию кругу специалистов, работающих в данной отрасли. / The dissertation research deals with the development of the concept of a children's and youth sports school in biathlon, aimed at implementing programs for additional education of children in biathlon. As a result a concept has been developed, that takes into account the legal form of the children’s and youth sports schools, target audience, market analysis of competitors. The positive results obtained in the research allow us to recommend the developed concept to specialists working in this industry.

学位プログラム名: 京都大学大学院思修館 / 京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(総合学術) / 甲第24056号 / 総総博第25号 / 新制||総総||4(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院総合生存学館総合生存学専攻 / (主査)教授 山敷 庸亮, 教授 寶 馨, 教授 池田 裕一, 佐藤 達彦 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy / Kyoto University / DFAM

Arctic Canada has seen significant ecological changes since the 1990s, leading to sea ice melt, increased temperatures, and increased accessibility to the Northwest Passage. The increased accessibility to the Northwest Passage has allowed for vessels to easily access maritime routes that were not previously accessible. Changes to the Arctic landscape has led to the beginning of open water shipping seasons in Arctic waters, attracting international audiences for trade, tourism, fisheries, and other economic activity. This new passageway increases options for companies to reduce costs in shipping, while also facilitating new and emerging hazards and risks for operational vessels. Comprehensive risk analysis and full assessments need to be completed to aid policy- and decision-makers to support and manage the increasing maritime traffic in Canadian Arctic waters. To fill this knowledge gap, the overarching aim of this master’s level research was to identify and preliminarily evaluate a comprehensive list of hazards (impact drivers) and risks (future impacts) for Maritime ship operations within Arctic Canada and to complete a preliminary assessment of identified maritime shipping hazards and risks throughout Arctic Canada. Hazards and risks were identified using several text-based sources, including social media, grey literature, and peer reviewed journal articles, in order to conduct a comprehensive content analysis to identify the perspectives and trends emerging among the online community. Natural language processing methods were then used, such as word frequencies, word correlation, and topic modelling to identify key phrases, terminology, and thematic groups. This allowed for the creation of an inventory of relevant hazard and risk themes and categories that could be used as a strong basis for informing a risk analysis. Emerging themes included: sea ice, navigability issues, geopolitical concerns, and operational challenges, among others. Following the identification of hazard and risk factors, a ‘failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis’ (FMECA) approach was used, along with a consequence-probability Rettinger ix matrix, as means of performing a preliminary risk analysis. The method enables the collection of information regarding hazard and risk descriptors, consequence, probability, control mechanisms, impacts, and data quality information, to establish a validated risk rating score. Risk rating scores are calculated using consequences and probability scores to determine average risk ratings for individual hazards and risks and at the sector-based category level. A total of 154 variables were inventoried: 55 hazards were identified and 99 risks were noted that influence maritime ship operations in Arctic Canada. Five variables were classified as ‘VERY HIGH’: three hazards (hydrocarbon releases, transportation of dangerous goods, and multiyear sea ice) and two risks (community member displacement and socioeconomic impacts on indigenous peoples). Five thematic groups were seen as priority risk ratings, two of which identified with “HIGH” data quality indexes (Sea Ice, Environmental). A total of 35 hazards and 36 risks are recommended for further investigation, being classified with a ‘VERY HIGH’ or ‘HIGH’ data quality score. Results of this research supports a preliminary attempt at a comprehensive risk analysis that can be used in the future to conduct a full risk assessment.

I dagsläget finns det fler anslutna enheter till internet, Internet of Things-enheter som det benämns, än vad det finns människor på jorden och produkter är lättillgängliga för den vanliga konsumenten. När fler enheter kopplas upp till internet är det också viktigt att hålla reda på dem. En nackdel med allt ökat antal uppkopplade enheter är en potentiellt ökad sårbarhet och det finns en högre risk för privatpersoner eller företag att bli hackade. Examensarbetet undersöker vilka säkerhetsrisker som finns med att skapa ett IoT-system och hur IoT kan kombineras med blockchainteknik ur ett säkerhetsperspektiv i olika branscher genom att titta på IoT-system inom små företag och för privatpersoner med begränsad IT-kompetens. En riskanalys görs för två användarfall, en floristverksamhet för bevarandet av bland annat känsliga växter och blommor respektive ett kommersiellt smart dörrlås som gör det möjligt för hushåll att kunna låsa samt låsa upp ett dörrlås digitalt med hjälp av mobiltelefoner. Därefter presenteras sårbarheter och tillgångar som behöver skyddas och relaterade arbeten undersöks för att se hur sårbarheter kan undvikas. Resultatet visar teknikernas relevans i nuläget, vilka IoT-modeller det finns och hur blockchain kan användas för att säkra IoT med exempelvis användningen av smarta kontrakt. Tre modeller identifieras där graden för inklusion av blockchain skiljer sig. IoT till IoT-modellen lagrar en del av datat i blockchain medan IoT interaktioner sker utan att använda blockchain. IoT till blockchain-modellen innebär att alla interaktioner sker via blockchain. Den tredje modellen är en hybrid vilket innebär att en del av interaktionen och datat placeras i blockchain och att det går att välja vilka interaktioner som ska ske via blockchain. Resultatet visar att blockchain kan användas för att bevara integritet och konfidentialitet mellan IoT enheter, mer specifikt kan det användas för autentisering och säker dataöverföring.