Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:09:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AdrianaMSR_TESE.pdf: 15407461 bytes, checksum: 9724571238317c177c2fdb4b02772cad (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-05-06 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior / Activities that have fuel subterranean storage system are considered potentially polluting fuels by CONAMA Resolution 273, due to the possibility of leak, outpouring and overflow of fuel into the ground. Being even more worrying when contaminate groundwater for public supply, as the case of Natal City. For this reason, the Public Ministry/RN, in partnership with UFRN, developed the project environmental suitability of Gas stations in Natal, of which 36% showed evidence of contamination. This paper describes the four stages of the management of contaminated areas: preliminary assessment of environmental liabilities, detailed confirmatory investigation of the contamination, risk analysis to human health (RBCA), as well as the remediation plan of degraded areas. Therefore it is presented a case study. For the area investigated has been proposed a mathematical method to estimate the volume of LNAPL by a free CAD software (ScketchUp) and compare it with the partition method for grid area. Were also performed 3D graphics designs of feathers contamination. Research results showed that passive benzene contamination in groundwater was 2791.77 ?g/L, when the maximum allowed by CONAMA Resolution 420 is 5 ?g/L which is the potability standards. The individual and cumulative risks were calculated from 4.4 x10-3, both above the limits of 1.0 x10-5 or by RBCA 1.0 x10-6 by the Public Ministry/RN. Corrective action points that remediation of dissolved phase benzene is expected to reach a concentration of 25 ?g/L, based on carcinogenic risk for ingestion of groundwater by residents residential, diverging legislation. According to the proposed model, the volume of LNAPL using the ScketchUp was 17.59 m3, while by the grid partitioning method was 14.02 m3. Because of the low recovery, the expected removal of LNAPL is 11 years, if the multiphase extraction system installed in the enterprise is not optimized / Atividades que possuem sistema de armazenamento subterr?neo de combust?veis s?o consideradas potencialmente poluidoras pela Resolu??o CONAMA 273/2000, devido ? possibilidade de vazamento, derramamento e transbordamento de combust?veis para o solo. Sendo ainda mais preocupante quando contaminam ?guas subterr?neas destinadas ao abastecimento p?blico, como o caso de Natal. Por este motivo, o Minist?rio P?blico/RN, em parceria com a UFRN, desenvolveu o projeto de adequa??o ambiental dos postos revendedores de combust?veis em Natal, dos quais 36% apresentaram ind?cios de contamina??o. Este trabalho descreve as quatro etapas do gerenciamento de ?reas contaminadas: avalia??o preliminar do passivo ambiental, investiga??o confirmat?ria detalhada da contamina??o, an?lise de risco a sa?de humana (RBCA), bem como o plano de remedia??o das ?reas degradadas. E apresenta um estudo de caso. Para a ?rea investigada ? proposto um m?todo matem?tico para estimar o volume de fase livre auxiliado por um software CAD livre (ScketchUp), este foi comparado com o m?todo de parti??o da ?rea por grid. Tamb?m s?o realizados os designs gr?ficos 3D das plumas de contamina??o. Os resultados da investiga??o de passivo mostraram que a contamina??o por benzeno na ?gua subterr?nea foi 2791,77 ?g/L, quando o m?ximo permitido pela Resolu??o CONAMA 420/2009 ? de 5 ?g/L que ? o padr?o de potabilidade. Os riscos individual e cumulativo calculados foram de 4,4x10-3, ambos acima dos limites aceit?veis pelo RBCA de 1,0x10-5 ou pelo Minist?rio P?blico/RN de 1,0x10-6. A a??o corretiva aponta que a remedia??o da fase dissolvida de benzeno dever? atingir uma concentra??o de 25 ?g/L, com base no risco carcinog?nico, para ingest?o de ?gua subterr?nea para moradores residenciais, divergindo da legisla??o. De acordo com o modelo proposto, o volume de fase livre utilizando o ScketchUp foi de ? de 17,59 m3, enquanto o m?todo de parti??o por grid foi de 14,02 m3. Devido ? baixa recupera??o, a previs?o de remo??o da fase livre ? de 11 anos, caso o sistema de extra??o multif?sica instalado no empreendimento n?o seja otimizado / 2020-01-01

This thesis deal with the judgement of investment intention for the company XYZ Ltd. The company XYZ operates as a authorized cars dealer for ___, ___, ___ and ___. The investment is planned for acquiring the sale authorization for a new brand and for the construction of a new building, which would include showroom and service spaces. The company plans on constructing the building on its own. The goal of the thesis is to evaluate possibilities for gaining authorization for one of six selected brands. The selected brands include A, B, C, D, E and F.

O prejuízo causado por chuvas de granizo é um dos principais problemas enfrentados pelos produtores de maçã no Brasil e em outros países. O trabalho apresenta, a partir de uma revisão abrangente da literatura e pesquisas de campo realizadas em região produtora do Estado de Santa Catarina, uma caracterização do problema e das alternativas existentes para a definição de estratégias ótimas para o gerenciamento do risco existente. As alternativas consideradas incluíram: seguro comercial, seguro mútuo, diversificação espacial, telas anti- granizo, foguetes anti- granizo e geradores de solo. O trabalho utiliza um modelo conceitual, especificado num diagrama de decisão e dados levantados na pesquisa, para evidenciar a relação qualitativa e quantitativa existente entre as diferentes alternativas consideradas e as variáveis mais relevantes para caracterização do problema. O modelo definido no diagrama de decisão foi implementado em software, em planilha eletrônica, de forma a facilitar o processo de seleção das melhores alternativas para gestão do risco de granizo, a partir da situação existente com relação a preços, custos e outras informações relevantes. Esse software foi utilizado em estudo de caso realizado junto a uma cooperativa de produtores de maçã de São Joaquim, SC, para a análise quantitativa das alternativas levantadas. O trabalho visa fornecer subsídios técnicos que auxiliem os agricultores no processo de tomada de decisão quanto à estratégia mais adequada para a administração do risco de chuvas de granizo em seus pomares, auxiliem as empresas de seguro na elaboração de novos contratos em suas carteiras agrícolas e, também, o governo no desenvolvimento de novas políticas voltadas ao setor agropecuário. / The damage caused by hailstorms is one of the most important problems faced by the apple producers, in Brazil, and in other countries. This work presents, from a literature review and local surveys within the apple producing region in Santa Catarina State, Brazil, a characterization of the hail risk problem and an evaluation of existing alternatives for risk management. The alternatives considered in the risk management process included: commercial insurance, mutual insurance, spatial diversification, antihail nets, hail rockets and ground burners. Besides, the research presents a conceptual model that uses decision diagrams to describe the qualitative relationship among the different alternatives for administration of the hail risk and the most important variables for the problem. The decision diagram guided the development of a software tool designed to help the selection of the best combination of alternatives for hail risk management. This software tool, implemented in a spreadsheet, was used in a case study involving an association of apple producers in São Joaquim, SC. The intention of this work is to aid apple producers in the selection of the most appropriate strategy for the administration of the risk of hailstorms in their orchards, aid the insurance companies in the design of new contracts in your agricultural portfolio and, also, aid the government in the development of new agricultural policies.

[pt] A hipótese de normalidade é comumente utilizada na área de análise de risco para descrever as distribuições dos retornos padronizados pelas volatilidades. No entanto, utilizando cinco dos ativos mais líquidos na Bovespa, este trabalho mostra que tal hipótese não é compatível com medidas de volatilidades estimadas pela metodologia EWMA ou modelos GARCH. Em contraposição, ao extrair a informação contida em cotações intradiárias, a metodologia de volatilidade realizada origina retornos padronizados normais, potencializando ganhos no cálculo de medidas de Valor em Risco. Além disso, são caracterizadas as distribuições de volatilidades e correlações de ativos brasileiros e, em especial, mostra-se que as distribuições das volatilidades são aproximadamente lognormais, enquanto as distribuições das correlações são aproximadamente normais. A análise é feita tanto de um ponto de vista univariado quanto multivariado e fornece subsídio para a melhor modelagem de variâncias e correlações em um contexto de grande dimensionalidade. / [en] The normality assumption is commonly used in the risk management area to describe the distributions of returns standardized by volatilities. However, using five of the most actively traded stocks in Bovespa, this paper shows that this assumption is not compatible with volatilities estimated by EWMA or GARCH models. In sharp contrast, when we use the information contained in high frequency data to construct the realized volatilies measures, we attain the normality of the standardized returns, giving promise of improvements in Value at Risk statistics. We also describe the distributions of volatilities and correlations of the brazilian stocks, showing that the distributions of volatilities are nearly lognormal and the distribuitions of correlations are nearly Gaussian. All analysis is traced both in a univariate and a multivariate framework and provides background for improved high-dimensional volatility and correlation modelling in the brazilian stock market.

The work of an engineer is closely intertwined with safety. An engineer’s perception of the “safety” task is traditionally inherent in his or her design. However, in the technical world most machines and systems designed by engineers contain a human element, which engineers have to consider in their work. In the oil and gas upstream industry – especially drilling, production and workover operations – petroleum engineers (including drilling and production engineers) are responsible not only for design but also for operational and organizational aspects. The human factor becomes more important in complex offshore operations. Incorporating safety into a sys-tem design requires identifying, analyzing and evaluating risks and ensuring that any not accounted for are taken into consideration. This process requires communication among everyone involved in the process. Analysis of accidents in the oil and gas industry shows that often a lack of that communication led to incident triggering events. In this thesis, the author proposes a novel communication model that improves this exchange of information and supposedly makes the process of risk assessment more effective. In addition, the new model also incorporates factors such as emotions, feelings, needs and imagination into the risk assessment process. This broadens the information base for the risk identification and analysis and creates an atmosphere of psychological ownership for the stakeholders in the process, which leads to a perceived safety climate in the organization where the new model is applied. The innovative communication or consultation model, as it is also referred to in risk assessments, is based on a structured process used in conflict resolution called mediation. Mediation is an alternative conflict resolution process that is centered on mutual under-standing and listening to each other’s needs. The process is composed of elements that characterize it. These elements of mediation are used to assess other communication processes and to develop new communication models. The application of the elements of mediation and the safety-mediation consultation into the risk assessment process enables this process to be enhanced with human factors such as emotions, feelings, intuition and imagination. The inclusion of all stakeholders creates psychological ownership, improves communication, enables organizational learning and expands the knowledge base for risk analysis. The applicability of the safety-mediation consultation process for a human factor-based risk assessment is presented and tested using illustrative examples and field cases from the international oil and gas industry. Possible concerns and limitations are also discussed. This thesis shows that mediation and elements of the mediation process can be applied to improve communication in the international oil and gas industry. This is facilitated by educated safety mediators, who help the petroleum engineer and operational crew on a drilling rig to achieve a better understanding by ensuring that they hear and fully register each other’s needs.

Les maladies émergentes à transmission vectorielle sont une préoccupation croissante et particulièrement lorsqu’elles affectent les chevaux, une population spécifiquement à risque vis-à-vis de la propagation de maladies. En effet, les chevaux voyagent fréquemment et, malgré l’impact sanitaire et économique des maladies équines, les règlementations sanitaires et les principes de biosécurité et de traçabilité censés assurer la sécurité des mouvements d'équidés ne sont pas toujours en place. Notre travail propose d'améliorer la surveillance des maladies à transmission vectorielle chez les chevaux en utilisant différentes méthodes pour estimer la probabilité d'émergence d'une maladie. Tout d'abord, nous avons développé un modèle quantitatif et spatio-temporel combinant différentes probabilités pour estimer les risques d'introduction de la peste équine et de l’encéphalose équine. Ces combinaisons permettent d’obtenir une image plus détaillée du risque posé par ces agents pathogènes. Nous avons ensuite évalué des systèmes de surveillance syndromique par deux approches méthodologiques: l'approche classique avec un seuil d'alarme basé sur un multiple de l'erreur standard de prédiction, et l'approche bayésienne basée sur le rapport de vraisemblance. Nous avons travaillé ici principalement sur la détection précoce du virus West Nile en utilisant les symptômes nerveux des chevaux. Les deux approches ont fourni des résultats prometteurs, mais l’approche bayésienne était particulièrement intéressante pour obtenir un résultat quantitatif et pour combiner différentes informations épidémiologiques. Pour finir, l'approche bayésienne a été utilisée pour combiner quantitativement différentes sources d'estimation du risque : surveillance syndromique multivariée, et combinaison de la surveillance syndromique avec les résultats d’analyses de risques. Ces combinaisons ont données des résultats prometteurs. Ce travail, basé sur des estimations de risque, contribue à améliorer la surveillance des maladies à transmission vectorielle chez les chevaux et facilite la prise de décision. Les principales perspectives de ce travail sont d'améliorer la collecte et le partage de données, de mettre en oeuvre une évaluation complète des performances des systèmes de surveillance multivariés, et de favoriser l'adoption de ce genre d’approche par les décideurs en utilisant une interface conviviale et en mettant en place un transfert de connaissance. / Emerging vector-borne diseases are a growing concern, especially for horse populations, which are at particular risk for disease spread. In general, horses travel widely and frequently and, despite the health and economic impacts of equine diseases, effective health regulations and biosecurity systems to ensure safe equine movements are not always in place. The present work proposes to improve the surveillance of vector-borne diseases in horses through the use of different approaches that assess the probability of occurrence of a newly introduced epidemic. First, we developed a spatiotemporal quantitative model which combined various probabilities in order to estimate the risk of introduction of African horse sickness and equine encephalosis. Such combinations of risk provided more a detailed picture of the true risk posed by these pathogens. Second, we assessed syndromic surveillance systems using two approaches: a classical approach with the alarm threshold based on the standard error of prediction, and a Bayesian approach based on a likelihood ratio. We focused particularly on the early detection of West Nile virus using reports of nervous symptoms in horses. Both approaches provided interesting results but Bayes’ rule was especially useful as it provided a quantitative output and was able to combine different epidemiological information. Finally, a Bayesian approach was also used to quantitatively combine various sources of risk estimation in a multivariate syndromic surveillance system, as well as a combination of quantitative risk assessment with syndromic surveillance (applied to West Nile virus and equine encephalosis, respectively). Combining evidence provided promising results. This work, based on risk estimations, strengthens the surveillance of VBDs in horses and can support public health decision making. It also, however, highlights the need to improve data collection and data sharing, to implement full performance assessments of complex surveillance systems, and to use effective communication and training to promote the adoption of these approaches.

Master thesis aims to define entrepreneurship including lodging services, shows basic information about how to create entrepreneurship plan and afterwards making particular one about a concrete guest house. In the introduction you will find out the basic information about entrepreneurship and also about dividing accommodation services. Those information precede better understanding of the practical part, in which thesis aims to concrete opportunities of entrepreneurship based on a guest house in Karlovy Vary.

Subject of the thesis is to create extended model for the evaluation of information security controls. Evaluation of security controls is one from many processes of risk management which is part of information security management system ISMS. Thesis contains the outline of issue of information security and introduce various publications of information security management. Two of these publications were chosen and are used in this thesis. It is ČSN ISO/IEC 27001:2014 and NIST 800_53. These two standards are used for creation of introduced model. Model itself is introduced in second part of the thesis. Model is connecting security controls from these two standards. If organization implements security controls from NIST 800_53, meet requirements defined in ČSN ISO/IEC 27001:2014; Apendix A. This model is also customized for evaluation of security controls and giving feedback to evaluator about state of implementation of security controls. This evaluation process is setup as evaluation of NIST 800_53 security controls and after that these data are recalculated into percentage value of implementation of security controls from Apendix A. Results of this process are most valuable for risk management, for planning an implementation of security controls and for improvement of already implemented.

The aim of this masters thesis is to demonstrate a business plan tailored for an eSports bar located in Prague, which consists of three sections. Theoretical part introduces the reader basic terminology of entrepreneurship, environment of small and medium enterprises and the structure of a business plan, realization of which is the subject of practical part. Methodical part deals with a primary marketing research. The main purpose of the thesis is to evaluate the feasibility and the viability of the project.

The proposition of this dissertation is that superior capital budgeting solutions can be attained by not only analyzing projects individually but rather as part of a portfolio of projects that has the objective of maximizing the company’s range of multiple objectives, not only the economic benefit. The dissertation starts with a detailed study of current techniques and an assessment of flaws and shortcomings. This study concludes with the requirements that any new approach or model must address in order to improve on the current practices. Based on these requirements, a new model is developed based on the portfolio approach that integrates all the assumptions, constraints, project and variable interrelationships. An important feature of the model is that it selects its portfolio of capital projects in such a way that it optimizes support for the company’s multiple objectives, not only the economic objective. The dissertation concludes with the application of this model to a hypothetical case. It is concluded that, by developing and using this model, a company can improve the analysis required before capital budgets are finalized. / Dissertation (MEng (Industrial Engineering))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Industrial and Systems Engineering / unrestricted