A regional planning model is designed to facilitate coordinated land use and transportation planning, yet have a sufficiently simple structure to enable quick scenario turnaround. The model, TransPLUM, is built on two existing commercial software products: the Population and Land Use Model (PLUM); and a four-stage travel model implemented in a standard software package. Upon creating scenarios users are able to examine a host of results (zonal densities, origin-destination trip flows and travel times by mode, network link flows, etc) which may prompt modification of a reference land use plan and/or network plan. A zonal density-accessibility ratio is described: an index which identifies the relative utilization of a zone and which could serve as a coordinating feedback mechanism. The model was implemented for a pilot study area – the Winnipeg Capital Region. Development of a baseline scenario is discussed.

This thesis applies the econometric projection approach to forecast the numbers of general practitioners (GPs) in Saskatchewan for the next 15 years at both provincial and the Regional Health Authorities (RHAs) levels. The projection results will provide the estimated level of GPs up to 2021 for policy makers to adjust their decision on health professionals planning.<p> Three hypothesized scenarios, which include the changes in population proportion, average income for GPs and a combination of both, are used for projections based on the regression results. The projections suggest a 4.34% expected annual increase of GPs if the proportions of children and seniors increase or decrease according to prediction for the next 15 years for Saskatchewan. At the RHAs level, 4.5% to 10.7% expected annual rate of increase for numbers of GPs is projected for the northern RHAs and Saskatoon RHA, while the expected increase for other urban RHAs will experience less than 1.5% increases.<p> The predicted changes in average income for GPs show insignificant effect for the expected changes in numbers of GPs. However, the second and third scenarios are not extended to the RHAs level due to lack of information, which requires additional data for both Saskatchewan physicians and population for further projection analysis.

Der Abwassersektor in Deutschland sieht sich mit zunehmend turbulentem Umfeld konfrontiert. Auf Grund der langen Nutzungsdauer ihrer Infrastruktur und ihrer Kapitalintensität ist die Abwasserwirtschaft durch hohe Fixkosten und durch ihre Anfälligkeit gegenüber Pfadabhängigkeiten charakterisiert. Dies zeigt sich besonders im Zusammenhang mit den Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels in den letzten Jahren, in Folge dessen abnehmende Bevölkerungszahlen zu einem Verlust von Gebührenzahlern geführt haben. Zusätzlich wurde dieser Effekt durch einen beträchtlichen Rückgang der Wassernachfrage pro Kopf verstärkt. Die herkömmlichen Planungsansätze in der Siedlungsentwässerung basieren hauptsächlich auf Prognosen und Trendfortschreibungen und berücksichtigen somit nur unzureichend sich ändernde Rahmenbedingungen. Aus diesem Grund untersucht diese Dissertation inwiefern die geringe Anpassungsfähigkeit, die im Zusammenhang mit dem demografischen Wandel offensichtlich wurde, durch eine Stärkung der strategischen Planungskompetenzen, und speziell durch die Anwendung der Szenarioplanung, erhöht werden kann. Hierfür werden sowohl die prediktiven als auch die explorative Möglichkeiten der Szenarioplanung bewertet. Im ersten prediktiven Ansatz liegt der Fokus auf den spezifischen Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die Abwassergebühren. Der zweite explorative Ansatz basiert auf einer Kombination der Delphi-Technik mit der Szenarioplanung, in der die bedeutendsten zukünftigen Herausforderungen identifiziert und in vier Szenarien zusammengefasst werden. / The sanitation sector in Germany is challenged by an increasingly turbulent environment. Due to the long use-life of the infrastructure and its capital intensity, the sector is characterized by low rates of return, high fixed-costs and vulnerability to path dependency. This became particularly obvious in the last years within the context of demographic change, when a decreasing population led to the loss of fee payers, and was intensified by a considerable decline in the water demand per capita, which caused increasing wastewater fees. The traditional planning instruments in the sanitation sector rely mainly on forecasts and forward projections, while disregarding key dynamics of the surrounding political-legal, economic, societal, technological and environmental framework conditions. Therefore, this dissertation assesses if the low adaptive capacity of the sanitation sector, which became obvious with demographic change, can be enhanced by strengthening the long range planning competencies by means of scenario planning. The dissertation evaluates the possibilities of scenario planning as alternative planning instrument and explores the predictive as well as the explorative possibilities in two separate research streams. The predictive research stream analyzes the specific impacts of demographic change on wastewater fees. The focus lies on a short time horizon and one specific trend. The latter explorative research stream is addressed by a Delphi-based scenario study, in which the most relevant future challenges of the sanitation sector are identified and summarized in four scenarios.

As active safety systems installed in vehicles become more common and more sophisticated, a concise method of testing them in conditions as close to real risk situations as possible becomes necessary. This study looks at the possibilities of developing use cases, using video recordings of real risk situations, obtained through naturalistic driving studies. The concept of conflicts is explored as a substitute to actual accidents. A method of finding conflicts in a large data material from looking at the acceleration signal and its derivative, referred to as jerk is also sought. These possibilities are tried on material from a previously conducted naturalistic driving study. The results are an improvement in the ability to find conflict situations automatically, and a suggestion to how use cases can be produced from video recordings of conflicts obtained through naturalistic driving studies. The DREAM framework is used and modified in order to aid with data collection and interpretation.

Many of the future methods are used in areas like economical studies, predicting future markets or legislations that might have an effect on a company or an organization. There is a necessity for knowing what the future holds. Following sustainable development companies has begun to adopt standardized environmental management systems like EMAS and ISO 14001. The companies that use scenario methods are often companies that also use environmental management and standardized management systems, which also is the case in this study. The aim of the study is to examine how future oriented studies can be used to develop the environmental strategic arena, by suggesting possible work procedures. The aim is also to describe how different future studies and techniques theoretically can be used within the strategic environmental area and to examine the use of future studies within different companies. Four Semi-structured interviews were made with companies that both use EMS and future studies. The interviews and the theoretical framework in study were used to answer the aim. The results indicate that company future studies only have an effect on the market area and not the company EMS, the influence at the best is only indirect. The companies are more focused on factors that can change the market and economical aspects surrounding their products and services, than on factors that can be of important in making strategic important decisions about the appearance of the future environmental arena. Future oriented studies can be of use in EMS, the forecasting used in company A or the external method used in the three other companies. The methods each have qualities that are of use in different areas of the standardized EMS. Forecasting can help the user in the beginning of the planning process of EMS, with its short term visions the user can create an understanding about which way to go and this can then be complemented with backcasting. External scenarios used in the other three companies should be able to be integrated with the environmental area of the companies. These companies have god conditions to integrate their scenario work with the EMS because of the knowledge and use of future studies today. / The ISRN in the pdf-file is incorrect. The correct ISRN is shown below.

This thesis applies the econometric projection approach to forecast the numbers of general practitioners (GPs) in Saskatchewan for the next 15 years at both provincial and the Regional Health Authorities (RHAs) levels. The projection results will provide the estimated level of GPs up to 2021 for policy makers to adjust their decision on health professionals planning.<p> Three hypothesized scenarios, which include the changes in population proportion, average income for GPs and a combination of both, are used for projections based on the regression results. The projections suggest a 4.34% expected annual increase of GPs if the proportions of children and seniors increase or decrease according to prediction for the next 15 years for Saskatchewan. At the RHAs level, 4.5% to 10.7% expected annual rate of increase for numbers of GPs is projected for the northern RHAs and Saskatoon RHA, while the expected increase for other urban RHAs will experience less than 1.5% increases.<p> The predicted changes in average income for GPs show insignificant effect for the expected changes in numbers of GPs. However, the second and third scenarios are not extended to the RHAs level due to lack of information, which requires additional data for both Saskatchewan physicians and population for further projection analysis.

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In this thesis, the technologies that appeared to be strategic according to the Vision 2023 Technology Foresight Project were examined in terms of how they might form up technology clusters. This thesis aims to identify technology clusters in terms of common knowledge base and to use these clusters in future scenarios as a foresight tool. In this study, Vision 2023 Delphi survey respondents&rsquo / intersecting expertise levels in different fields were accepted as indicators of common knowledge base in these fields and technology clusters were formed up in this direction. In order to attain technology clusters, the appropriateness of hierarchical and nonhierarchical clustering methods and projection techniques were examined. Taking the clusters into consideration, Ward&rsquo / s method revealed the healthiest results for our data set. Investigation of scenario building which had not been used in Turkey as a an effective foresight tool, forms the second step of this study. Scenario method was examined from a historical perspective and different approaches were investigated. Finally, using the technology clusters that were gained through Ward clustering, a scenario building study by scenario matrix was conducted as an example.

ABSTRACT THE EFFECTS OF COGNITIVE LOAD IN LEARNING FROM GOAL BASED SCENARIO DESIGNED MULTIMEDIA LEARNING ENVIRONMENT FOR LEARNERS HAVING DIFFERENT WORKING MEMORY CAPACITIES Kili&ccedil / , Eylem Ph.D., Department of Computer Education and Instructional Technology Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Zahide Yildirim December 2009, 201 pages The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of principles aiming to reduce extraneous cognitive load in learning from goal based scenario designed multimedia learning environment for learners having different working memory capacities. In addition, the effects of goal based scenario and the principles of cognitive load theory on students&rsquo / perception, motivation and satisfaction has been explored. Two versions of the multimedia were developed for this study. In the first version (+CLT), the principles such as split attention, multimedia, modality, redundancy, coherence and signaling was applied. In the second version (-CLT), these principles were violated. Mixed method was used and two studies were conducted for this study. The first study was conducted with 82 ninth grade students from one of the Anatolian High School in Ankara. However, the participants&rsquo / working memory capacities were found very close to each other. Therefore, the second study was conducted with 54 11th grade students having different working memory capacity from the same school. The result of the first study showed that the cognitive load principles aim at reducing extraneous cognitive load increased learning gains, decreased invested mental effort and affected students&rsquo / motivation and satisfaction in positive ways. On the other hand, when cognitive load principles were not considered, this decreased learning gains, increased invested mental effort and affected students&rsquo / motivation and satisfaction in negative ways. The result of the second study showed that the only difference between high and low WMC students found on the number of errors made in sequencing meiosis sub phases in favor of the first version (+CLT). This might be explained by the task characteristics in that the difference between high and low WMC individuals can be observed when task demanded attention. It can be concluded that students benefited from the cognitive load principles reducing extraneous cognitive based on the findings of both studies.

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