Making decisions at the right time and in the right way is vital in dealing with extreme events. However, uncertainties and severe time constraints usually make the tasks hard and stressful. Since catastrophes are not frequent events in our lives, prior practice is essential to increasing preparedness. In accordance with its rapid development and extensive dissemination, information communication technology (ICT) has been recognised as an indispensable instrument, not only to assist onsite activities of professional emergency responders, but also to support collaborative actions of a wide-range of stakeholders for effective preparedness. This research intends to explore the feasibility of workshop-style decision-making exercises on the basis of scenarios of extreme events, and to examine the role of ICT in mediating the interactive processes during a workshop. A comparative approach between the UK and Japan was employed to find similarities and differences in the way of identifying major issues, proceeding to a discussion, and reaching a decision on which course of action to take. Interviews with Japanese and British experts, including researchers and practitioners, were conducted to develop realistic scenarios and to hear their opinions about the use of ICT in the crisis preparedness context. Experimental face-to-face (FTF) workshops and online workshops were respectively organised for Japanese and British research participants to examine the applicability of the scenario method under these two different methods of communication. Complementary online workshops were also conducted for Japanese and British practitioners to obtain practical feedback on the idea of scenario-based online workshops. The main finding of this study was that scenario-based exercises are beneficial regardless of the nationality or the methods of communication in decision problems in which individuals have no prior experience. The most noteworthy finding was that scenario-based online workshops are unlikely to be argumentative and results-oriented under certain conditions, such as complexity of issues and tasks, amount of time spent by participants, degree of facilitation and type of technology used. This finding indicates that online exercises require different strategies from FTF exercises. In theoretical aspects, this study provides a foundation for theory formation regarding scenario methods. In addition, this work contributes to further development of online communications based on the comparison with FTF communications. In practical terms, the examination of the scenario method and use of ICT offers methodological alternatives in order to implement more robust preparedness.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-06-15T13:59:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 WISLAYNE AIRES MOREIRA_.pdf: 1071106 bytes, checksum: e020fcd4feaf1e0473221051a68d300e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-15T13:59:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 WISLAYNE AIRES MOREIRA_.pdf: 1071106 bytes, checksum: e020fcd4feaf1e0473221051a68d300e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-02 / IFTO - Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Tocantins / A despeito de o Brasil ser considerado o segundo produtor mundial de biodiesel, o norte do Brasil representa apenas 2% da produção desse biocombustível. O estado do Tocantins (TO) possui uma demanda que é superior ao que é produzido por mês de biodiesel e o governo estadual tem grande interesse em expandir a cadeia de biodiesel. Com o desenvolvimento da região de MATOPIBA (limites do Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, Bahia), as expectativas de crescimento da cadeia só tendem aumentar. Considerando essas informações, este trabalho tem como objetivo construir os cenários da cadeia produtiva do TO, buscando os fatores que limitam o seu crescimento. O referencial teórico apresenta questões sobre impactos ambientais, biodiesel, cadeia produtiva do biodiesel, cadeia produtiva da soja e análise dos cenários. O método de pesquisa utilizado é de caráter aplicado, qualitativo, exploratório. Para esse fim, foram realizadas entrevistas com principais elos da cadeia produtiva de biodiesel do TO, que são: representante do governo, representante de instituição pública e, representantes da agricultura familiar. Através da análise sugerida por Van der Heijden (2005), quatro cenários para a cadeia produtiva de biodiesel do Tocantins foram construídos, com base nos fatores políticos e legal, econômico, social, tecnológico e ecológico. Como contribuições, analisa-se a influência que as incertezas críticas a nível político, econômico, social, tecnológico, ecológico e legal podem gerar sobre a cadeia de produção de biodiesel do Tocantins. Desta análise, através dos cenários, busca-se sugerir meios para as empresas mitigarem os impactos ocasionados pelas incertezas críticas e que impeçam o seu crescimento. / Despite Brazil is considered the second largest producer of biodiesel, northern Brazil, produces only 2% of such biofuel. Tocantins (TO) have a demand that is superior to that produced by month of biodiesel, and the state government is keen to expand the biodiesel chain. With the development of MATOPIBA region (limits of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, Bahia) growth expectations of the chain only tend to increase. Considering this information, this work aims to build scenarios of the production chain of TO, seeking the factors that limit their growth. The theoretical framework it presents questions about environmental impacts, biodiesel, biodiesel production chain, the soybean production chain, analysis of scenarios. The research method is applied character, qualitative, exploratory. To this end, interviews were conducted with key links the production chain of biodiesel TO, that they are representative of the government, public institution representative and representatives of family farming. Through the analysis suggested by Van der Heijden (2005), four scenarios for the productive chain of Tocantins biodiesel were built, based on political and legal factors, economic, social, technological and ecological. As contributions, analyzes the influence that critical uncertainties the political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal level can generate on the Tocantins biodiesel production chain. From this analysis, through the scenarios, we try to suggest ways for companies to mitigate the impacts caused by the critical uncertainties and to prevent their growth.

This exegesis investigates the use of interactive online media to support the development of communication and problem solving skills amongst learners in a Vocational Education and Training (VET) context. It describes the development of the Maelstrom website as a response to the identified need for a collaborative, interactive online space where learners can explore and experiment within the safe and anonymous environment provided. The user interaction within the Maelstrom and user responses to their experiences are discussed and analysed to not only inform the role of the Maelstrom within the broader context on interactive online communication and collaboration, but also to guide future research.

Current deployments of mobile commerce focus mostly on digital content. However, mobile commerce will grow rapidly with the increased use of portable devices such as cellular phones and personal digital assistants (PDA), increased network bandwidth, and the availability of a wider range of mobile commerce services and transactions. As the revenue generated from mobile commerce is expected to skyrocket in the coming years, strategists are turning their attention to untapped emerging markets in the developing countries. Understanding how mobile commerce will develop in countries like China, where huge market potential exists, is of paramount importance in order to develop effective strategies that will positively affect its course. Modelling the diffusion of mobile commerce in a country is a difficult task due to the non-linear, complex and uncertain nature of its operating environment. A System Dynamics approach is more appropriate to model such a complex system. The main objective of this study is to illustrate the process of developing System Dynamics models for simulating mobile commerce diffusion in China by using a subset of the factors involved. In order to achieve this objective, the Chinese mobile commerce was modelled as the interaction of three subsystems, namely: population evolution in China; mobile commerce diffusion; and the influence from the provision of mobile commerce terminals (MCT) on mobile commerce diffusion. Each subsystem was modelled by identifying the factors influencing its development as well as the interactions between the factors. The subsystems were calibrated using historical and forecasted data whenever they were available. The validation of the subsystems was also performed through extensive sensitivity analysis. The complete model was used for experimenting with some typical Chinese mobile commerce scenarios for the purpose of analysing mobile commerce trends and designing strategies to exert positive influences on those trends. The simulation of the submodels provided useful insights into their respective areas for controlling their development. Simulation of the population development submodel showed that, in addition to family planning policies, urbanisation rates and life quality were important factors that significantly influenced population dynamics in China. Simulation of the mobile commerce diffusion submodel showed that the time when mobile commerce is implemented will significantly influence its market expansion speed i.e. the later mobile commerce is implemented, the quicker the market will expand. The existence of floating populations in China will be a big advantage in starting up the rural market. However, if mobile commerce is implemented too late, the penetration in rural areas will be negligible. Simulation of the MCT provision submodel showed the importance of opening the Chinese market to foreign suppliers and the coordination of strategies regarding the design and supply of MCTs with strategies for the growth of mobile commerce in China. This study is a first attempt to simulate the diffusion of mobile commerce in China using System Dynamics. The results obtained showed that the models developed were useful for understanding and controlling the future diffusion of mobile commerce in China.

<p>The purpose of the study is to explore the context, from the users’ perspective, in order to find relevant context parameters that can be useful in the development of the future context-aware technology. The goal is to find some of the context parameters relevant to the situated activity and investigate to what extent and in which way they influence the user in everyday planning activities.</p><p>The method used in the study was based on scenario descriptions. A total of 41 participants reported how they would have acted in the different situations and they also rated how important they believed the different context factors were in the situations. Analyses were made to reveal relationships between context factors and service properties used by the participants in the scenarios.</p><p>In the study several interesting relationships between context factors and the use of services were discovered. The level of urgency was in several situations considered to be important, and it was also found to have an impact on how the participants chose to communicate. The cost was introduced by the participants during the study. It seemed to be important; however, in situations with high urgency it became less important. The study revealed a potential relationship between the risk of disturbing the people in the vicinity and the effort to communicate quietly. Another interesting finding was the relationship between privacy and the choice of modality when communicating: voice-based services were avoided. Further, the importance of privacy and disturbance also appeared to have greater influence in non-anonymous situations than in anonymous.</p> / <p>Syftet med studien är att undersöka kontexten, utifrån användarens perspektiv, för att kunna hitta relevanta kontextfaktorer som kan vara användbara i utvecklingen av kontextmedveten teknologi. Målet är att finna kontextfaktorer som är relevanta för den pågående aktiviteten och undersöka i vilken utsträckning och på vilka sätt dessa faktorer påverkar användaren i de dagliga planeringsaktiviteterna.</p><p>Metoden som användes i studien baserades på scenariobeskrivningar. 41 stycken försöksdeltagare fick beskriva hur de skulle ha handlat i de olika situationerna och de fick också skatta hur viktiga de olika kontextfaktorerena var i situationerna. Analyser genomfördes för att finna samband mellan kontextfaktorer och egenskaper hos de tjänster som försöksdeltagarna använde sig av i scenarierna.</p><p>I studien upptäcktes en rad intressanta relationer mellan kontextfaktorer och användningen av tjänster. Exempelvis ansågs nivån av brådska vara betydelsefull i flera situationer och den verkade också ha inverkan på hur försöksdeltagarna valde att kommunicera. Försöksdeltagarna introducerade under studien kontextfaktorn kostnad. Kostnaden påverkade valet av tjänster men blev mindre betydande i situationer med stor brådska. Studien visade också på potentiella samband mellan risken att störa människor i sin omgivning och viljan att kommunicera tyst. En annan intressant upptäckt var sambandet mellan avskildhet och kommunikationssätt: röstbaserade tjänster undveks när andra människor fanns i närheten. Dessutom verkade det som om det var viktigare att värna om sin avskildhet och att inte störa andra i ickeanonyma situationer än i situationer där man var helt anonym.</p>

<p>Many of the future methods are used in areas like economical studies, predicting future markets or legislations that might have an effect on a company or an organization. There is a necessity for knowing what the future holds. Following sustainable development companies has begun to adopt standardized environmental management systems like EMAS and ISO 14001. The companies that use scenario methods are often companies that also use environmental management and standardized management systems, which also is the case in this study. The aim of the study is to examine how future oriented studies can be used to develop the environmental strategic arena, by suggesting possible work procedures. The aim is also to describe how different future studies and techniques theoretically can be used within the strategic environmental area and to examine the use of future studies within different companies. Four Semi-structured interviews were made with companies that both use EMS and future studies. The interviews and the theoretical framework in study were used to answer the aim.</p><p>The results indicate that company future studies only have an effect on the market area and not the company EMS, the influence at the best is only indirect. The companies are more focused on factors that can change the market and economical aspects surrounding their products and services, than on factors that can be of important in making strategic important decisions about the appearance of the future environmental arena. Future oriented studies can be of use in EMS, the forecasting used in company A or the external method used in the three other companies. The methods each have qualities that are of use in different areas of the standardized EMS. Forecasting can help the user in the beginning of the planning process of EMS, with its short term visions the user can create an understanding about which way to go and this can then be complemented with backcasting. External scenarios used in the other three companies should be able to be integrated with the environmental area of the companies. These companies have god conditions to integrate their scenario work with the EMS because of the knowledge and use of future studies today.</p> / The ISRN in the pdf-file is incorrect. The correct ISRN is shown below.

<p>There is a gap between low-fidelity prototyping using paper and high-fidelity prototyping using computers in web design. Both serve well in different stages of web design, but are not well integrated. Prior studies have examined the practice of web designers. The studies resulted in a number of alternative prototyping tools, which focus on informal representation and try to prolong sketching in the design process.</p><p>The thesis proposes a design of a prototyping tool that makes use of existing paper sketches. In paper prototyping, a human who acts as the “computer” makes the sketches interactive. In the prototyping tool put forward in the thesis, the interactivity of the sketches is instead created on the computer. The novel prototyping tool needs to support the interactions and behaviours used in web design, and it must be easy to use so that the web designers do not have to invest too much time learning it.</p><p>The prototype of the tool is a sketch-and-scan interface, thus allowing the use of paper the way it is. The functionality supports both documentation and computer interactivity. Usability tests and expert reviews were conducted, involving students, lecturers and researchers in human-computer interaction.</p><p>The results elaborate previous research on prototyping practice, and a designers’ wish list was formulated. A prototyping tool is expected to support communication between users, designers and developers; as well as to reduce a designer’s need to change his work practice when using the tool.</p>

<p>Titel: Into tomorrow – Constructing scenarios for the record industry in the 21-century.Number of Pages: 54 (55 including enclosures)Author: Erik G AgebergTutor: Else NygrenCourse: Media and Communication Studies DPeriod: Spring semester 2009University: Division of Media and Communication studies, Department ofinformation science, Uppsala University.Purpose/Aim: The aim of this paper is to, through scenario planning methodology,present recommendations in order for record companies to be competitive in the nearfuture. In order to achieve this goal three question where asked. (1) What are the mostcentral problems of the record industry? (2) How can these problems affect the futurein the industry? (3) In what way can record companies’ work to avoid theseproblems? The paper focuses on the Swedish market partly because of the giventimeframe but also because of Sweden’s position in that of file sharing as well astechnological advances. It is also assumed in this paper that the future of music saleswill be concentrated to the Internet.Material/Method: The chosen method for this paper was scenario planning. Anextensive literature study was complemented with interviews of key players involvedin content consumption over the Internet.Main results: A fundamental issue for the future of the music industry is that oflegislation. The outcome of the record industry’s future is almost exclusivelydependent on the way, which the legislation takes. A stricter legislation, whichincludes violations of citizens’ personal integrity, may backfire and result in politicalpirate parties’ becoming members of parliaments. This may in turn result in that theintellectual property laws of the nineteenth century are removed. Suing privatepersons and trackers can result in record companies alienating an entire generation ofmusic consumers. Record companies attempts to retain music as a product may proveto be futile within time, but they can absolutely prolong the period in which it is aproduct. It is nevertheless, not entirely negative for music to become a service. Bybeing a service music can more easily be attached to another service, like an Internetsubscription, or an experience.</p>

Titel: Into tomorrow – Constructing scenarios for the record industry in the 21-century.Number of Pages: 54 (55 including enclosures)Author: Erik G AgebergTutor: Else NygrenCourse: Media and Communication Studies DPeriod: Spring semester 2009University: Division of Media and Communication studies, Department ofinformation science, Uppsala University.Purpose/Aim: The aim of this paper is to, through scenario planning methodology,present recommendations in order for record companies to be competitive in the nearfuture. In order to achieve this goal three question where asked. (1) What are the mostcentral problems of the record industry? (2) How can these problems affect the futurein the industry? (3) In what way can record companies’ work to avoid theseproblems? The paper focuses on the Swedish market partly because of the giventimeframe but also because of Sweden’s position in that of file sharing as well astechnological advances. It is also assumed in this paper that the future of music saleswill be concentrated to the Internet.Material/Method: The chosen method for this paper was scenario planning. Anextensive literature study was complemented with interviews of key players involvedin content consumption over the Internet.Main results: A fundamental issue for the future of the music industry is that oflegislation. The outcome of the record industry’s future is almost exclusivelydependent on the way, which the legislation takes. A stricter legislation, whichincludes violations of citizens’ personal integrity, may backfire and result in politicalpirate parties’ becoming members of parliaments. This may in turn result in that theintellectual property laws of the nineteenth century are removed. Suing privatepersons and trackers can result in record companies alienating an entire generation ofmusic consumers. Record companies attempts to retain music as a product may proveto be futile within time, but they can absolutely prolong the period in which it is aproduct. It is nevertheless, not entirely negative for music to become a service. Bybeing a service music can more easily be attached to another service, like an Internetsubscription, or an experience.

A regional planning model is designed to facilitate coordinated land use and transportation planning, yet have a sufficiently simple structure to enable quick scenario turnaround. The model, TransPLUM, is built on two existing commercial software products: the Population and Land Use Model (PLUM); and a four-stage travel model implemented in a standard software package. Upon creating scenarios users are able to examine a host of results (zonal densities, origin-destination trip flows and travel times by mode, network link flows, etc) which may prompt modification of a reference land use plan and/or network plan. A zonal density-accessibility ratio is described: an index which identifies the relative utilization of a zone and which could serve as a coordinating feedback mechanism. The model was implemented for a pilot study area – the Winnipeg Capital Region. Development of a baseline scenario is discussed.