Idrottsparken roundabout in Norrkoping is located in the more dense part of the city.Congestion occurs in peak hours causing queue and extended travel time. This thesis aims to provide alternative model to reduce queue and travel time. Types ofobservation data are flow, length of queue, and travel time that are observed during peakhours in the morning and afternoon. Calibration process is done by minimising root meansquare error of queue, travel time, and combination both of them between observation andcalibrated model. SUMO version 0.14.0 is used to perform the microsimulation. There are two proposed alternatives, namely Scenario 1: the additional lane for right turnfrom East leg to North and from North leg to West and Scenario 2: restriction of heavy goodsvehicles passing Kungsgatan which is located in Northern leg of Idrottsparken roundaboutduring peak hours. For Scenario 1, the results from SUMO will be compared with AIMSUNin terms of queue and travel time. The result of microsimulation shows that parameters that have big influence in the calibrationprocess for SUMO are driver imperfection and driver’s reaction time, while for AIMSUN isdriver’s reaction time and maximum acceleration. From analysis found that the model of thecurrent situation at Idrottsparken can be represented by model simulation which usingcombination between root mean square error of queue and travel time in calibration andvalidation process. Moreover, scenario 2 is the best alternative for SUMO because itproduces the decrease of queue and travel time almost in all legs at morning and afternoonpeak hour without accompanied by increase significant value of them in the other legs. Thecomparison between SUMO and AIMSUN shows that, in general, the AIMSUN has higherchanges value in terms of queue and travel time due to the limited precision in SUMO forroundabout modelling.

The test of homogeneity for intraclass correlation coefficients has been one of the active topics in statistical research. Several chi-square tests have been proposed to test the homogeneity of intraclass correlations in the past few decades. The big concern for them is that these methods are seriously biased when sample sizes are not large. In this thesis, data driven approaches are proposed to testing the homogeneity of intraclass correlation coefficients of several populations. Through simulation study, data driven methods have been proved to be less biased and accurate than some commonly used chi-square tests.

Purpose/aim The purpose of the research is to analyze the relationship between water pollution (WP) and the economic development in China. We found a vicious cycle that at the same time as China’s economy has developed; the WP has become the focus of attention, and has also caused huge economic losses. Faced with this situation, this topic is really worth to study. Design/methodology/approach The research adopted a quantitative methodology for the exploration, and conducted a survey through questionnaires which were answered by different people. These respondents come from four areas in China. After having conducted the survey, we selected three typical provinces as representative for each area, and surveyed the basic information about these places. The sample information was calculated by the Chi-square test. The results will be analyzed together with the findings below. Findings The findings indicated that through an analysis of GDP, population, the economic development level and the degree of WP, there is relationship between economic development and WP. When people ignore the problem of WP, and just focus on the economy, the relationship shows that the more developing of economy, the more serious the WP becomes. Originality/value The original idea in our dissertation is to discuss the relationship between economic development and WP in China. The water problem and economic development form a vicious circle. And it seriously affects the whole China. The study has a value for the improvement of the environmental awareness of all the people in China, and advocates the government to develop the economy, and at the same time protect the water sources.

During 2012, the employer of this essay carried out a telephone survey with 18000 participants and a web panel survey with 708 participants. Those who partook in the telephone survey were given a choice to join the web panel. The purpose of this work is to study the participants of the telephone survey and see if they reflect the Swedish population with regards to several socio-demographic factors. Also, we intend to investigate if the propensity to join the web panel differs for participants of the telephone survey with regards to various socio-demographic affiliations. It is also of interest to study if the response pattern is different for participants of the telephone survey that would like to join the web panel and those who reject. A comparison of response pattern between the telephone survey and web panel survey has also been done, to see if there exist any differences for these two groups of surveys. The statistical methods used in this essay are descriptive statistics, multiple logistic regression and decision trees. Conclusions to be drawn with result from these methods are that the participants from the telephone survey do reflect the Swedish population regarding certain socio-demographic factors and that there is a slight difference in propensity to join the web panel for people which have dissimilar socio-demographic affiliation. It has also been found that there is a slight difference in response pattern for participants who would or would not like to join the web panel, as well as differences in response pattern also exist between the telephone survey and the web panel survey.

The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate five different volatility forecasting models that are used to calculate financial market risk. The models are used on both daily exchange rates and high-frequency intraday data from four different series. The results show that time series models fitted to high-frequency intraday data together with a critical value taken from the empirical distribution displayed the best forecasts overall.

A linear periodically time-varying (LPTV) system is a linear time-varying system with the coefficients changing periodically, which is widely used in control, communications, signal processing, and even circuit modeling. This thesis concentrates on identification of LPTV systems. To this end, the representations of LPTV systems are thoroughly reviewed. Identification methods are developed accordingly. The usefulness of the proposed identification methods is verified by the simulation results.<p> A periodic input signal is applied to a finite impulse response (FIR)-LPTV system and measure the noise-contaminated output. Using such periodic inputs, we show that we can formulate the problem of identification of LPTV systems in the frequency domain. With the help of the discrete Fourier transform (DFT), the identification method reduces to finding the least-squares (LS) solution of a set of linear equations. A sufficient condition for the identifiability of LPTV systems is given, which can be used to find appropriate inputs for the purpose of identification.<p> In the frequency domain, we show that the input and the output can be related by using the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) and a least-squares method can be used to identify the alias components. A lower bound on the mean square error (MSE) of the estimated alias components is given for FIR-LPTV systems. The optimal training signal achieving this lower MSE bound is designed subsequently. The algorithm is extended to the identification of infinite impulse response (IIR)-LPTV systems as well. Simulation results show the accuracy of the estimation and the efficiency of the optimal training signal design.

Parameter identification of an induction machine is of great importance in numerous industrial applications, including the assessment of machine performance and design of control schemes. Parameter identification is based on the input-output signals and the model used. Many researches have applied the inverter drive to control the exciting signal of the induction machine in the identifying process. This study proposed a method to identify all parameter of the induction machine with a no-load low-voltage starting test. The method has a simple structure without needing extra hardware, which could significantly simplify the procedures and save cost. Based on the curves of resistance and reactance, the user can obtain the machine¡¦s equivalent circuit parameters. With the identified parameters of the equivalent circuit, input voltage, and rotor speed, the user can find the torque. From the torque and rotor speed, the user can find the mechanical parameters. A least mean square (LMS) method was used with a particle swarm optimization (PSO) method to solve the aforementioned problem. From various tests, the practicability and accuracy of this method can been proven. This study also proposes a method to rapidly analyze power parameters. This method uses two adjacent data to compute the fundamental frequency component of voltage or current. The parameters of fundamental frequency component include frequency, amplitude, and phase. Under the condition of varied parameters, the frequency and phase are dependent. This method fixes the frequency and computes the amplitude and phase, and then stable results will be obtained.

This thesis proposes an adaptive control approach to regulate the hydrogen feed of a fuel cell. The goal of the controller is to maintain the so-called hydrogen excess ratio, defined as the ratio between the hydrogen fed to the cell stake and those consumed in the stake, at a desired level when the fuel cell is under load variation. Maintaining the hydrogen excess ratio at an appropriate level would avoid hydrogen starvation, which is crucial for slowing degeneration of the fuel cell membranes and prolonging the life of the cell stake. The control approach we propose is based on the receding horizon linear quadratic optimal control algorithm with an on-line turning scheme which updates the plant model according to real-time measurement. To ease the computational complexity and make real-time turning realizable, we adopt a simple autoregressive with external disturbance (ARX) model to approximate the complicate chemical/electrical process of the fuel cell. The proposed adaptive control approach is implemented on an experimental platform. The experimental results show that the proposed control works with reasonably good performance.

This paper studies the role of fluctuation of the aggregate consumption-wealth ratio(cay) for predicting Taiwan stock return. The effect of cay on U.S. stock return has been recently confirmed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) with a two stage method. In the first step, estimate the ratio used a dynamic least square(DLS) technique. Second, to investigate the performance of cay, they use in-sample and out-of-sample test. In this paper, we follow the method which Lettau and Ludvigson(2001) use to examine the predictability of cay. Using quarterly market data from 1998 to 2010, we find cay is strong predictors of excess return in out-of sample test. We also find that this ratio is a better forecaster of future returns at intermediate horizons compared to short time.

¡@¡@In this thesis, we use a hidden Markov model which can use a small amount of corpus to synthesize speech with certain quality to implement speech synthesis system for Chinese. More, the emotional speech are synthesized by the flexibility of the parametric speech in this model. We conduct model interpolation and model adaptation to synthesize speech from neutral to particular emotion without target speaker¡¦s emotional speech. In model adaptation, we use monophone-based Mahalanobis distance to select emotional models which are close to target speaker from pool of speakers, and estimate the interpolation weight to synthesize emotional speech. In model adaptation, we collect abundant of data training average voice models for each individual emotion. These models are adapted to specific emotional models of target speaker by CMLLR method. In addition, we design the Latin-square evaluation to reduce the systematic offset in the subjective tests, making results more credible and fair. We synthesize emotional speech include happiness, anger, sadness, and use Latin square design to evaluate performance in three part similarity, naturalness, and emotional expression respectively. According to result, we make a comprehensive comparison and conclusions of two method in emotional speech synthesis.