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The purpose of the article is to analyze the relationship among dividend policy,future earnings and growth opportunities.And the results are below: 1.Total dividend and cash dividend can predict future earnings,but stock dividend can only reflect current earnings 2.total dividend and stock dividend are signaling effect,but I have a diffent result in cash dividend. Using MBA,MBE and E/P as substitute variables,it is contracting effect.But using R&D as a substitute variable,it is signaling effect.

Magistrantūros studijų baigiamasis darbas, 57 puslapiai, 5 paveikslai, 5 lentelės, 38 literatūros šaltiniai, 3 priedai, lietuvių kalba. RAKTINIAI ŽODŽIAI – dividendai, finansinis signalizavimas, signalinis efektas, akcijų rinka. Tyrimo objektas – dividendų politikos formavimas finansinio signalizavimo aspektu. Darbo tikslas – suformavus dividendų signaliniam efektui akcijų rinkoje nustatyti metodiką, įvertinti šio efekto stiprumą Lietuvos akcijų rinkoje. Uždaviniai: • Paaiškinti ir pagrįsti dividendų svarbą rinkos dalyviams. • Pateikti ir palyginti pagrindines dividendų teorijas finansinio signalizavimo aspektu. • Sukurti dividendų signalinio efekto akcijų rinkoje tyrimo metodiką. • Ištirti ryšį tarp dividendų išmokų ir Lietuvos akcinių bendrovių finansinės būklės bei nustatyti akcijų kainos ir dividendų išmokų priklausomybę. Tyrimo metodai – literatūros analizė ir sintezė bei palyginimo metodas, matematinės statistikos funkcijos, dispersinė, regresinė analizė, koreliacija ir grafinė analizė. Tyrimų laikotarpis – 2000-2008 m. Tyrimo rezultatai: • pirmoje darbo dalyje atlikta dividendų teorijų analizė finansinio signalizavimo aspektu; • antroje dalyje atlikus dividendų signalinio efekto empirinių tyrimų ir taikytų metodikų analizę sukurta metodika, pagal kurią tiriamas dividendų signalinis efektas Lietuvos akcijų rinkoje; • trečioje darbo dalyje ištirtas dividendų signalinis efektas Lietuvos akcijų rinkoje; • atliktas empirinis tyrimas parodė, jog kaikurios Lietuvos įmonės... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Master final work, consist of 57 pages, 5 figures, 5 tables, 38 references, 3 appendix, writen in Lithuanian language. KEY WORDS – dividend, financial signaling, signaling effect, stock market.. The object of research – formation of dividend poicy by the financial signaling aspect. The research aim – to develop the methodology for determination of signaling effect in stock market, estimate of this effect strengthness in the Lithuanian stock market. The objectives: • Explane and base the importance of dividends to market participants. • To represent and compare the main theorys by the dividends signaling aspect. • to create the methodology for determination of signaling effect in stock market. • To research the relation between dividend payments and financial situation of Lithuanian joint stock companies also dependence on stock price and dividend payments.. Research methods – literary analysis and synthesis and comparison method, mathematical statistics function of variance, regression analysis, correlation and graphical analysis. Research period – 2000-2008. Resaerch results: • in the first part of the research was done the dividend theory anglysis by the financial signaling aspect; • in the second part was developed the methodology based on which was researched the dividend signaling effect of Lithuanian stock market after the anglysis of empirical research and applied anglysis of methodologies; • in the third part of the research was investigated the signaling effect... [to full text]

Background: In financial markets, decisions to buy or sell securities are highly influenced by the aim of making a profit and avoiding losses. The signals that insider transactions send to external investors can significantly impact those decisions. The signals can differ depending on the type of transaction, within which sector, and the company's size. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether insider transactions employ a more potent influence when buying or selling stocks. A partial purpose is distinguishing between small- and mid-cap stocks and between the technology and industrial sectors on the Nasdaq Stockholm Stock Exchange. Methodology: A quantitative approach was utilised with the event Study model. Hypotheses were constructed, and statistical tests in STATA were conducted to determine if the results were significant. The insider trading that was analysed took place between 2018-2023. Thirty-one companies are in the industrial sector, and twenty-eight are in the technology sector, with 3601 insider transactions employed. Conclusion: The results showed the existence of signalling effects and the possibility of achieving abnormal returns, especially if shorting when insiders are selling, particularly technology stocks, with the most prominent returns from mid-cap firms. However, the results contradict most previous research proposing that purchase transactions yield higher abnormal returns and have a more substantial signalling effect.

本研究利用1970年至2014年之美國公司為樣本探討公司之成長性是否會影響公司之股利政策。實證結果與股利訊號理論相符，公司會利用現金股利之發放降低公司與外部投資者間的資訊不對稱，以達到較低的股東權益成本。然而，當面對較高不確定性時，高成長公司之股東權益成本較高，因此較不會發放股利。本研究亦發現發放股利之高成長公司相較發放股利之低成長公司於未來有較好的營運績效，代表高成長公司發放股利有較好的訊號理論效果。而市場能夠有效率地反應較好的訊號理論於公司股價上。 / The main purpose of this study is to investigate how the corporate growth affects the corporate payout policy. Using U.S. firms during 1970 to 2014 as the sample, we demonstrate that, consistent with signaling hypothesis, firms tend to pay dividends to reduce the information asymmetry, and therefore the cost of equity will be lower. However, considering the higher cost of equity, high growth firms will not pay dividends if they face higher uncertainty. We also find a better future operating performance for high growth firms paying dividends, indicating a good signaling occurs when high growth firms pay dividends. The market is efficient enough to give a price appreciation for those good signaling firms.

This paper investigates the signaling effect of insider trading by analyzing the market reaction to 147 insider transactions executed within the period 2014-2016 on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. We present three major findings. First, we find significant market reactions for both insider purchases and insider sales, suggesting a signaling effect of insider trading. Second, we find the signaling effect to be similar for both insider purchases and insider sales. Third, we find that firm size has an influence on the signaling effect. Our findings indicate that the market values information about insider trading and that firm size has an effect on this informative value. / Denna studie undersöker signaleringseffekten av insynshandel genom att analysera marknadsreaktionen för 147 insynstransaktioner utförda under perioden 2014-2016 på Stockholmsbörsen. Vi presenterar tre huvudsakliga upptäckter. Den första är att vi finner en signifikant marknadsreaktion för både köptransaktioner och säljtransaktioner utförda av insynspersoner vilket indikerar att det finns en signaleringseffekt av insynshandel. För det andra finner vi att signaleringseffekten är lika stark för både köptransaktioner och säljtransaktioner. För det tredje finner vi att bolagsstorlek har en påverkan på signaleringseffekten. Dessa upptäckter visar på att marknaden ser ett värde i information om insynshandel och att bolagsstorlek påverkar detta informationsvärde.

Var fjärde elev som påbörjar studier i den svenska gymnasieskolan avslutar inte studierna med fullständiga betyg inom fyra år. Forskning visar att elever som hoppar av sina studier lider större risk att hamna utanför arbetsmarknaden, vilket bortsett från det personliga lidandet leder till samhällsekonomiska kostnader. Många ekonomer har beskrivit värdet på det humankapital som ackumuleras under studietiden samt den signaleringseffekt det innebär på arbetsmarknaden att klarat av en gymnasieutbildning. Syftet med denna studie är att få ökad förståelse kring de potentiella effekterna av det ESF-finansierade projektet Plug In som pågick i 47 kommuner mellan 2012–2015 och är det i särklass största nationella projektet för att motverka studieavhoppen i de svenska gymnasieskolorna. Den sammanlaga kostnaden för projektet var närmare 200 miljoner kronor och idag finns det en uppföljare till projektet, kallat Plug In 2.0. En kvantitativ effektutvärdering av Plug In utfördes av Ramböll 2015, en utvärdering som inte kunde påvisa några signifikanta effekter som kunde bindas till insatsen i antalet avbrott för de kommuner med åtminstone en skola som deltog i projektet. Nysläppt data från Skolverket över andel elever som på skolenhetsnivå avslutat sina studier med fullständiga gymnasiebetyg har gett möjligheterna till denna mer pregnanta utvärdering där effekterna på längre sikt för första gången undersöks. Skolor i Göteborgsregionens Kommunförbund som deltog i projektet har matchats med skolor av liknande karaktär i jämförbara kommuner och med hjälp av en Difference-in-Difference modell mäts projektets sannolika påverkan av deltagare i projektet.

This thesis consists of an introductory part and three papers. Paper [I] examines how taxes affect consumption of commodities that are detrimental to health and the environment. Specifically, this paper examines if a tax increase leads to a significantly larger change in consumption than a producer price change, which is referred to as the signaling effect from taxation. The analysis uses aggregated cross-sectional time series data and information on major legislation introductions in Sweden, Denmark and the United Kingdom from 1970 to 2009. We find the main result to be that the signaling effect is significant for “Electricity” in Sweden and Denmark and significant for “Electricity” and “Petrol” in the United Kingdom. Paper [II] examines how sin taxation changes long-term consumer behavior regarding commodities which are deemed harmful for both health and the environment. These include tobacco, alcoholic beverages, sugar and confectionary, household energy, and motor fuel. Specifically, we examine the signaling effect from taxation which is seen if a tax increase leads to a significantly larger change in consumption than a producer price change. The empirical analysis is conducted by a US panel data study, during the period 1988-2012 for the four US census regions, using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). We find the main result to be that the signaling effect from taxation is significant for tobacco as well as for electricity and motor fuel.    Paper [III] examines state and industry responses on consumption of cigarettes and petroleum in the United States from 1998-2012. Upon facing consumption choices, the consumer faces two competing sets of messages, one from the government and another from the industry. The objective of the state is to steer consumption in the right direction due to the harmful effects from consumption and asymmetric information among consumers. This is done mainly via taxation and state media expenditures. The industry, on the other hand, seeks to incentivize the public to ignore or reject state research and signals as well as maximizing net economic returns. This is mainly done via industry media and lobbying expenditures. We find that the main results indicate, for cigarettes, industrial media and lobbying expenditure is statistically significant on consumption. For petroleum, we find that producer prices, state media expenditure, and industrial lobbying expenditure are statistically significant on consumption.