北韓自1950年代起逐步建立其核武實力，形成對國際社會的嚴重威脅，基於其政權生存與經濟的需要，動輒以核武要脅國際社會換取能源、糧食援助及安全保障。1994年第一次北韓核武危機結束後，由於美國與北韓後續未確實履行核框架協議，從2002年10月北韓承認恢復其核計畫、美國開始停止對北韓供應重油起，北韓動作頻頻，除自2003年1月10日起宣佈退出禁止核子武器擴散條約外，更積極發展核武抗衡美國與國際社會，對相關國家的安全造成莫大影響，並期望藉此獲得所需的政治利益與經濟援助。北韓的行為引起國際關注，視之為第二次北韓核武危機。中共、南韓、日本、俄羅斯及美國對此均投以高度關注，努力謀求解決之道，而中共更是此次核武危機演變與發展的關鍵斡旋角色。 第二次北韓核武危機發生以來，中共對核武問題的解決發生了建設性的作用，各輪會談能夠持續運作，中共以穿梭外交遊走於各國功不可沒，其角色重要而多樣，儼然成為斡旋者、調停者、領導者、防衛者、緩衝器、利益攸關者、平衡者、機制建議者，若依北韓核武危機往良性發展的端倪來看，未來中共更可能兼具經濟支援者、安全保障者和制度監督者的角色。此次的核武危機為中共大國外交提供難得的歷史機運，藉由複雜的危機解決過程，緩和了危機的緊張態勢，更藉由與各國間的互動與合作，獲得實質外交進展，提高了中共的國際影響力，同時這樣的作為也是符合各方利益的最佳選擇。 本文主要包含兩大方向：首先探討第二次北韓核武危機的背景與判斷北韓發展核武的動機，繼之簡述兩次核武危機始末；接著統整自三邊會談、六方會談召開以來之情勢發展及與會各國互動形成的共識共決，分析中共居中的角色與其國家利益之間的關聯性，並研判該議題未來走向。 / Since 1950s North Korea has gradually built up its nuclear weapon capabilities, forming a serious threat to international community. Based on the need of regime survival and economy, North Korea frequently uses nuclear weapons in threatening international community for exchanges of energy, food aid and security assurances. After the end of the First North Korea Nuclear Crisis in 1994, US and North Korea did not actually carry out the Agreed Framework, North Korea confessed to restart its nuclear program in October 2002 while US suspended supplying heavy fuel oil to North Korea. In addition to its withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, North Korea also actively develops nuclear weapons to contend with the US and international community, bringing about huge impacts on the security of relative countries, hoping to exchange for more political benefit and economic assistance. The behavior of North Korea has raised international attention, regarding it as the Second North Korea Nuclear Crisis. China, South Korea, Japan, Russia and the US all pay high attention and work hard to seek for solutions to the crisis. China has played a key role in the evolution and development of the Second North Korea Nuclear Crisis. Since the inception of the 2nd North Korea Nuclear Crisis, China has turned out to be constructively pivotal in solving nuclear weapon problems. The fact that six rounds of talks can take place continuously go to China’s credit, which pursues shuttle diplomacy to coordinate the activities of the other six-party talks participators, playing roles that are important yet various, apparently becoming a mediator, good officer, host, defender, buffer, stakeholder, balancer, mechanism keeper, and, in viewing from the point that North Korea Nuclear Crisis has been developed toward a more positive direction, China will more than likely take key role as economic supporter, security guarantor and mechanism supervisor. This nuclear crisis provides China a rare historical opportunity of big-power diplomacy. Through complex crisis solving process to détente intense situation and the interaction and cooperation among Northeast Asian nations to obtain actual diplomatic progress, the influence of China has soared while such action is the best choice in complying with relative nation’s interests. The study mainly include two directions: At first the background of the Second North Korea Nuclear Crisis be reviewed and the motive of North Korea in developing nuclear weapon be determined. Then how the two nuclear crises began and ended are briefly stated, followed by integration of situation development since the Three-party talks, Six-party talks and the common agreement formed among participating nations. The role of China and relations to its interest is analyzed and thus the future direction of the issues is also carefully studied.

2002年元月，美國小布希總統宣稱北韓與伊拉克、伊朗，同屬「邪惡軸心」（Axis of Evil）國家，這些國家均係美國列入防止核武擴散之對象，於是北韓與美國關係旋墜落谷底，北韓之鬥爭策略是先昇溫，復加壓，然後迫使美國讓步；北韓復於2006年10月9日，正式對外宣布成功進行地下核武試驗，此舉無疑對東亞及國際安全均帶來衝擊。台灣基於同為亞太國家成員之一，應該理解北韓核武危機所牽動東北亞安全環境變化，以及美國、日本、中國及俄羅斯等國家多邊體系關係，倘北韓核武危機未能圓滿解決，擁核後之北韓除易成為東北亞潛伏威脅外，將引起日本加速武裝。北韓除製造核武問題外，北韓經濟困頓、民不聊生，朝鮮勞動黨為維繫獨裁政權統治，大肆販售飛彈等軍火牟取利益，甚至遭控訴涉及國際間多起販毒、製造假煙及偽造美鈔事件，而台灣位居東亞海空交通樞紐，台灣海峽為北韓船隻往來必經之路，因而有必要瞭解北韓政軍經現況，深入剖析北韓對於國際間衍生種種安全問題，訂定因應措施，以確保國家安全。 由於台灣外交情勢嚴峻，往往無法參與區域性國際組織，北韓乃伺機對台洽購精密儀器或刺探高科技產業技術，使得台灣容易成為北韓覬覦獲得國際管制性物品漏洞，本論文試圖探究並思索如何防止北韓向台灣採購可供軍事用途之精密儀器等用品，或可供生產提昇國防武器裝備之科技機器流向北韓，並配合國際反恐措施予以列管，這樣不僅符合國際利益，而且可以提昇台灣國際形象與國家地位；況且台灣亦有必要隨時瞭解國際上及美、歐等先進國家之最新出口管制措施，從而監督台灣廠商禁止將進口之高科技戰略性物品與生產之精密工具機，輾轉出口至管制地區（包括：伊朗、伊拉克、利比亞、北韓、中國、古巴、蘇丹等國），並配合國際防止擴散組織，共同防止大規模毀滅性武器擴散，形成全球安全之出口管制制度。 / In January 2002, President George W. Bush declared North Korea, Iraq, and Iran as an “axis of evil”. These countries are regarded as subject to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons by the U.S. As a result, the relationship between North Korea and the U.S. has deteriorated. North Korea has attempted to gradually increase pressure to force the U.S. to concede; on October 9, 2006, North Korea officially announced the success of its secret nuclear weapon test, which undoubtedly made a tremendous impact on security in East Asia and the world. As a member of the Asia Pacific Region, Taiwan should understand how security in Northeast Asia changes due to the fact that North Korea is now a country with nuclear weapons. Taiwan should also be aware of the multilateral relations between the U.S., Japan, China, and Russia. Without a satisfactory solution to the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons, Japan may accelerate its military build-up in response to this lurking danger in Northeast Asia. Besides the nuclear weapon issue, North Korea has a poor economy and starving people. The Korean Workers’ Party has been accused of being involved in arms sale (such as missiles), international drug smuggling, counterfeit tobacco products, and counterfeit U.S. banknotes in order to maintain its dictatorship. As Taiwan’s geographic position is vital in the air and sea transport in East Asia, it is imperative for Taiwan to understand North Korea’s politics, armed forces, and economy. Taiwan must analyze and understand international security issues related to North Korea and map out corresponding actions so as to ensure national security. Due to its difficult diplomatic situation, Taiwan is unable to join many regional organizations. Therefore, North Korea takes this opportunity to purchase precision devices or pry into high technology from Taiwan. This makes Taiwan prone to become a legal loophole of which North Korea can take advantage to obtain international control items. This study investigates the ways for Taiwan to prevent North Korea from purchasing precision devices for military use or high-tech machinery that can improve defense weapons. In addition, the study also discusses how Taiwan can have better export control against North Korea by conforming to international anti-terror measures. To follow international principles is not only in line with global interests, but can also improve Taiwan’s international image and status. Therefore, Taiwan must keep itself updated of the latest export control measures implemented by the U.S., Europe, and other advanced countries. By doing so, Taiwan government can also prevent corporations in Taiwan from re-exporting strategic high-tech commodities and related production machinery to controlled territories, such as Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, China, Cuba, and Sudan. With cooperation with international non-proliferation organizations, proliferation of WMDs can be stopped and a comprehensive export control network can be formed to maintain global security.