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This thesis examines how the Swedish threshold concept can be understood and developed at the highest political and strategic level. The problem is that understanding the threshold concept with its dynamics is in its infancy. The Swedish debate shows that a disagreement exists about the concept, in particular about the extent to which the threshold can be equated with deterrence. In addition, it is problematic to use deterrence in isolation since the theory of coercive power also contains compellence. An actor that focuses on deterrence must also be prepared to use coercive diplomacy if deterrence fails. The two concepts have the same basis but operate on different dynamics. A state with a strategy that is conceptually based on deterrence alone risks being exposed to conceptual and doctrinal surprise in the event of conflict, as the difference between deterrence and coercive diplomacy disappears in conflict. In addition, it is up to the adversary to decide which of the two concepts is governing. The dissertation argues that the concept of threshold includes more than deterrence, “defense/obstacles”, marker, alarm clock and trip wire. This is done by applying discourse analysis to Swedish official political and military strategic documents dealing with the concept of threshold. This analysis is important today because of hostile actions are now taken place in the grey zone between war and peace. By examining how deterrence and coercive diplomacy are related, the dissertation increases the understanding of the concept of threshold as a conflict management tool in the gray zone. The study concludes that the threshold concept needs to be further developed, if it is to be used as a conflict management tool in the gray zone.

The Arctic is experiencing an increased drawback of the polar ice due to warmer temperatures across the earth, which affects the Arctic in particular. The decreasing area in which the ice stays for the whole year has sparked new interest and focus on the once peaceful Arctic. An increased presence and buildup of military forces is occurring due to new sea lines of communications opening and enormous oil, gas and mineral deposits becoming available. The increased attention of the area has prompted Sweden, Norway and Finland to sign a trilateral agreement of military cooperation in the Arctic. By examining and comparing Sweden and Norway’s military strategy for this region, this paper will shed light on each country’s military strategy for the Arctic, where Sweden especially has been over-looked in the past. The research compares Sweden and Norway’s strategy and aims to understand and explain the differences and similarities with the small state theory. The result of the essay indicates that the strategic military goal of each country is similar, however, it is attained by different methods and means. The result also conclude that Sweden falls behind in describing their military strategy for the Arctic. The differences and similarities of the strategies can furthermore be explained widely with the theory.

This study seeks to understand Estonia as a small state acting on the international arena in 2023. By analysing the National Security Concept of Estonia by applying Baldur Thorhallsson’s shelter theory, this study identifies Estonia’s shelter-seeking tendencies based on three areas of small state weakness: military, economic and societal. As a small European state and the front line of NATO against Russia, Estonia is primarily seeking military shelter with allies and partners. The National Security Concept also indicates economic shelter-seeking by embracing open international trade and moving its energy dependence from Russia to partners in Europe. Lastly, Estonia shows potential societal seeking by promoting democratic values domestically and abroad.

Sweden is the only state in the Baltic Sea region currently not under NATO protection, which puts the state in a particularly vulnerable position. On 18 May 2022, Sweden officially deemed NATO alignment a more effective option of security strategy in projecting deterrence and dealing with the security challenges the state is facing, compared to a strategy of non-alignment which has been Sweden’s security posture for over 200 years. The aim of the thesis is to explain this shift in Sweden’s security policy.  The thesis will explain small states’ security policy beyond the traditional explanations found in realist theory of state-centric threat balancing and sovereignty. Shelter theory claims that small states’ options for security is either to find a protecting power or join an alliance in order to be politically and militarily sustainable. The thesis will analyse Sweden’s shift in security policy by examining shelter theory’s claim that in order for small states to survive and prosper, buffering up domestic capabilities does not suffice, they need to seek political and military shelter from external security providers by implementing bi- or multilateral agreements with neighbouring states, great powers and by joining alliances.  Analysing a long-time deviant case of a non-aligned small state, this thesis argues that Sweden’s drawn-out road-map to NATO membership is problematic to explain from the perspective of shelter theory. Consequently, the thesis makes the additional claim that factors related to Sweden’s domestic policy, such as public opinion and the nearly institutionalised practice of broad political consensus in issues relating to security policy, also play an important role for the design of Sweden’s security policy. Shelter theory in combination with domestic factors’ influence on security policy change offer a more fully fledged explanation of Sweden's shift in security policy to NATO alignment. This thesis argues that its findings complement and enhance shelter theory by shedding light on the importance of domestic factors in the study of small states’ security policy.