L’objectif principal de cette thèse est de développer des méthodologies statistiques adaptées au traitement de données issues de processus stochastiques et plus précisément de processus de Cox.Les problématiques étudiées dans cette thèse sont issues des trois domaines statistiques suivants : les tests non paramétriques, l’estimation non paramétrique à noyaux et l’estimation minimax.Dans un premier temps, nous proposons, dans un cadre fonctionnel, des statistiques de test pour détecter la nature Poissonienne d’un processus de Cox.Nous étudions ensuite le problème de l’estimation minimax de la régression sur un processus de Poisson ponctuel. En se basant sur la décomposition en chaos d’Itô, nous obtenons des vitesses comparables à celles atteintes pour le cas de la régression Lipschitz en dimension finie.Enfin, dans le dernier chapitre de cette thèse, nous présentons un estimateur non-paramétrique de l’intensité d’un processus de Cox lorsque celle-ci est une fonction déterministe d’un co-processus. / The main purpose of this thesis is to develop statistical methodologies for stochastic processes data and more precisely Cox process data.The problems considered arise from three different contexts: nonparametric tests, nonparametric kernel estimation and minimax estimation.We first study the statistical test problem of detecting wether a Cox process is Poisson or not.Then, we introduce a semiparametric estimate of the regression over a Poisson point process. Using Itô’s famous chaos expansion for Poisson functionals, we derive asymptotic minimax properties of our estimator.Finally, we introduce a nonparametric estimate of the intensity of a Cox process whenever it is a deterministic function of a known coprocess.

La diversité des contenus recommandation et la variation des contextes des utilisateurs rendent la prédiction en temps réel des préférences des utilisateurs de plus en plus difficile mettre en place. Toutefois, la plupart des approches existantes n'utilisent que le temps et l'emplacement actuels séparément et ignorent d'autres informations contextuelles sur lesquelles dépendent incontestablement les préférences des utilisateurs (par exemple, la météo, l'occasion). En outre, ils ne parviennent pas considérer conjointement ces informations contextuelles avec les interactions sociales entre les utilisateurs. D'autre part, la résolution de problèmes classiques de recommandation (par exemple, aucun programme de télévision vu par un nouvel utilisateur connu sous le nom du problème de démarrage froid et pas assez d'items co-évalués par d'autres utilisateurs ayant des préférences similaires, connu sous le nom du problème de manque de donnes) est d'importance significative puisque sont attaqués par plusieurs travaux. Dans notre travail de thèse, nous proposons un modèle probabiliste qui permet exploiter conjointement les informations contextuelles actuelles et l'influence sociale afin d'améliorer la recommandation des items. En particulier, le modèle probabiliste vise prédire la pertinence de contenu pour un utilisateur en fonction de son contexte actuel et de son influence sociale. Nous avons considérer plusieurs éléments du contexte actuel des utilisateurs tels que l'occasion, le jour de la semaine, la localisation et la météo. Nous avons utilisé la technique de lissage Laplace afin d'éviter les fortes probabilités. D'autre part, nous supposons que l'information provenant des relations sociales a une influence potentielle sur les préférences des utilisateurs. Ainsi, nous supposons que l'influence sociale dépend non seulement des évaluations des amis mais aussi de la similarité sociale entre les utilisateurs. Les similarités sociales utilisateur-ami peuvent être établies en fonction des interactions sociales entre les utilisateurs et leurs amis (par exemple les recommandations, les tags, les commentaires). Nous proposons alors de prendre en compte l'influence sociale en fonction de la mesure de similarité utilisateur-ami afin d'estimer les préférences des utilisateurs. Nous avons mené une série d'expérimentations en utilisant un ensemble de donnes réelles issues de la plateforme de TV sociale Pinhole. Cet ensemble de donnes inclut les historiques d'accès des utilisateurs-vidéos et les réseaux sociaux des téléspectateurs. En outre, nous collectons des informations contextuelles pour chaque historique d'accès utilisateur-vidéo saisi par le système de formulaire plat. Le système de la plateforme capture et enregistre les dernières informations contextuelles auxquelles le spectateur est confronté en regardant une telle vidéo.Dans notre évaluation, nous adoptons le filtrage collaboratif axé sur le temps, le profil dépendant du temps et la factorisation de la matrice axe sur le réseau social comme tant des modèles de référence. L'évaluation a port sur deux tâches de recommandation. La première consiste sélectionner une liste trie de vidéos. La seconde est la tâche de prédiction de la cote vidéo. Nous avons évalué l'impact de chaque élément du contexte de visualisation dans la performance de prédiction. Nous testons ainsi la capacité de notre modèle résoudre le problème de manque de données et le problème de recommandation de démarrage froid du téléspectateur. Les résultats expérimentaux démontrent que notre modèle surpasse les approches de l'état de l'art fondes sur le facteur temps et sur les réseaux sociaux. Dans les tests des problèmes de manque de donnes et de démarrage froid, notre modèle renvoie des prédictions cohérentes différentes valeurs de manque de données. / Due to the diversity of alternative contents to choose and the change of users' preferences, real-time prediction of users' preferences in certain users' circumstances becomes increasingly hard for recommender systems. However, most existing context-aware approaches use only current time and location separately, and ignore other contextual information on which users' preferences may undoubtedly depend (e.g. weather, occasion). Furthermore, they fail to jointly consider these contextual information with social interactions between users. On the other hand, solving classic recommender problems (e.g. no seen items by a new user known as cold start problem, and no enough co-rated items with other users with similar preference as sparsity problem) is of significance importance since it is drawn by several works. In our thesis work, we propose a context-based approach that leverages jointly current contextual information and social influence in order to improve items recommendation. In particular, we propose a probabilistic model that aims to predict the relevance of items in respect with the user's current context. We considered several current context elements such as time, location, occasion, week day, location and weather. In order to avoid strong probabilities which leads to sparsity problem, we used Laplace smoothing technique. On the other hand, we argue that information from social relationships has potential influence on users' preferences. Thus, we assume that social influence depends not only on friends' ratings but also on social similarity between users. We proposed a social-based model that estimates the relevance of an item in respect with the social influence around the user on the relevance of this item. The user-friend social similarity information may be established based on social interactions between users and their friends (e.g. recommendations, tags, comments). Therefore, we argue that social similarity could be integrated using a similarity measure. Social influence is then jointly integrated based on user-friend similarity measure in order to estimate users' preferences. We conducted a comprehensive effectiveness evaluation on real dataset crawled from Pinhole social TV platform. This dataset includes viewer-video accessing history and viewers' friendship networks. In addition, we collected contextual information for each viewer-video accessing history captured by the plat form system. The platform system captures and records the last contextual information to which the viewer is faced while watching such a video. In our evaluation, we adopt Time-aware Collaborative Filtering, Time-Dependent Profile and Social Network-aware Matrix Factorization as baseline models. The evaluation focused on two recommendation tasks. The first one is the video list recommendation task and the second one is video rating prediction task. We evaluated the impact of each viewing context element in prediction performance. We tested the ability of our model to solve data sparsity and viewer cold start recommendation problems. The experimental results highlighted the effectiveness of our model compared to the considered baselines. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms time-aware and social network-based approaches. In the sparsity and cold start tests, our approach returns consistently accurate predictions at different values of data sparsity.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:06:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 6004.pdf: 835734 bytes, checksum: b9cae4e00b44525ff06f6dfea7cfe687 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-03-28 / Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos / Correlated data sets with nonlinear structure are common in many areas such as biostatistics, pharmacokinetics and longitudinal studies. Nonlinear mixed-effects models are useful tools to analyse those type of problems. In this dissertation, a generalization to this models is proposed, namely by semiparametric partially nonlinear mixed-effects model (MMSPNL), with a nonparametric function to model the mean of the response variable. It assumes that the mean of the interest variable is explained by a nonlinear function, which depends on fixed effects parameters and explanatory variables, and by a nonparametric function. Such nonparametic function is quite flexible, allowing a better adequacy to the functional form that underlies the data. The random effects are included linearly to the model, which simplify the expression of the response variable distribution and enables the model to take into account the within-group correlation structure. It is assumed that the random errors and the random effects jointly follow a multivariate normal distribution. Relate to the nonparametric function, it is deal with the P-splines smoothing technique. The methodology to obtain the parameters estimates is penalized maximum likelihood method. The random effects may be obtained by using the Empirical Bayes method. The goodness of the model and identification of potencial influent observation is verified with the local influence method and a residual analysis. The pharmacokinetic data set, in which the anti-asthmatic drug theophylline was administered to 12 subjects and serum concentrations were taken at 11 time points over the 25 hours (after being administered), was re-analysed with the proposed model, exemplifying its uses and properties. / Dados correlacionados com estrutura não linear são comuns em bioestatística, estudos farmacocinéticos e longitudinais. Modelos mistos não lineares são ferramentas úteis para se analisar esses tipos de problemas. Nesta dissertação, propõe-se uma generalização desses modelos, chamada de modelo misto semiparamétrico parcialmente não linear (MMSPNL), com uma função não paramétrica para se modelar a média da variável resposta. Assume-se que a média da variável de interesse é explicada por uma função não linear, que depende de parâmetros de efeitos fixos e variáveis explicativas, e por uma função não paramétrica. Tal função não paramétrica possui grande flexibilidade, permitindo uma melhor adequação à forma funcional que subjaz aos dados. Os efeitos aleatórios são incluídos linearmente ao modelo, o que simplifica a expressão da distribuição da variável resposta e permite considerar a estrutura de correlação intra grupo. É assumido que os erros aleatórios e efeitos aleatórios conjuntamente seguem uma distribuição normal multivariada. Em relação a função não paramétrica, utiliza-se a técnica de suavização com P-splines. A metodologia para se obterem as estimativas dos parâmetros é o método de máxima verossimilhança penalizada. Os efeitos aleatórios podem ser obtidos usando-se o método de Bayes empírico. A qualidade do modelo e a identificação de observações aberrantes é verificada pelo método de influência local e por análise de resíduos. O conjunto de dados farmacocinéticos, em que o antiasmático theophylline foi administrado a 12 sujeitos e concentrações séricas foram tomadas em 11 instantes de tempo durante as 25 horas (após ser administrado), foi reanalisado com o modelo proposto, exemplificando seu uso e propriedades.

La thèse se compose de deux parties : une partie consacrée à l'estimation des quantiles conditionnels et une autre à l'apprentissage supervisé. La partie "Estimation des quantiles conditionnels" est organisée en 3 chapitres : Le chapitre 1 est consacré à une introduction sur la régression linéaire locale, présentant les méthodes les plus utilisées, pour estimer le paramètre de lissage. Le chapitre 2 traite des méthodes existantes d’estimation nonparamétriques du quantile conditionnel ; Ces méthodes sont comparées, au moyen d’expériences numériques sur des données simulées et des données réelles. Le chapitre 3 est consacré à un nouvel estimateur du quantile conditionnel et que nous proposons ; Cet estimateur repose sur l'utilisation d'un noyau asymétrique en x. Sous certaines hypothèses, notre estimateur s'avère plus performant que les estimateurs usuels.<br> La partie "Apprentissage supervisé" est, elle aussi, composée de 3 chapitres : Le chapitre 4 est une introduction à l’apprentissage statistique et les notions de base utilisées, dans cette partie. Le chapitre 5 est une revue des méthodes conventionnelles de classification supervisée. Le chapitre 6 est consacré au transfert d'un modèle d'apprentissage semi-paramétrique. La performance de cette méthode est montrée par des expériences numériques sur des données morphométriques et des données de credit-scoring. / The thesis consists of two parts: One part is about the estimation of conditional quantiles and the other is about supervised learning. The "conditional quantile estimate" part is organized into 3 chapters. Chapter 1 is devoted to an introduction to the local linear regression and then goes on to present the methods, the most used in the literature to estimate the smoothing parameter. Chapter 2 addresses the nonparametric estimation methods of conditional quantile and then gives numerical experiments on simulated data and real data. Chapter 3 is devoted to a new conditional quantile estimator, we propose. This estimator is based on the use of asymmetrical kernels w.r.t. x. We show, under some hypothesis, that this new estimator is more efficient than the other estimators already used.<br> The "supervised learning" part is, too, with 3 chapters: Chapter 4 provides an introduction to statistical learning, remembering the basic concepts used in this part. Chapter 5 discusses the conventional methods of supervised classification. Chapter 6 is devoted to propose a method of transferring a semiparametric model. The performance of this method is shown by numerical experiments on morphometric data and credit-scoring data.

Neste trabalho apresentamos os modelos lineares parciais generalizados com uma variável explicativa contínua tratada de forma não paramétrica e os modelos lineares parciais aditivos generalizados com no mínimo duas variáveis explicativas contínuas tratadas de tal forma. São utilizados os P-splines para descrever a relação da variável resposta com as variáveis explicativas contínuas. Sendo assim, as funções de verossimilhança penalizadas, as funções escore penalizadas e as matrizes de informação de Fisher penalizadas são desenvolvidas para a obtenção das estimativas de máxima verossimilhança penalizadas por meio da combinação do algoritmo backfitting (Gauss-Seidel) e do processo iterativo escore de Fisher para os dois tipos de modelo. Em seguida, são apresentados procedimentos para a estimação do parâmetro de suavização, bem como dos graus de liberdade efetivos. Por fim, com o objetivo de ilustração, os modelos propostos são ajustados à conjuntos de dados reais. / In this work we present the generalized partial linear models with one continuous explanatory variable treated nonparametrically and the generalized additive partial linear models with at least two continuous explanatory variables treated in such a way. The P-splines are used to describe the relationship among the response and the continuous explanatory variables. Then, the penalized likelihood functions, penalized score functions and penalized Fisher information matrices are derived to obtain the penalized maximum likelihood estimators by the combination of the backfitting (Gauss-Seidel) algorithm and the Fisher escoring iterative method for the two types of model. In addition, we present ways to estimate the smoothing parameter as well as the effective degrees of freedom. Finally, for the purpose of illustration, the proposed models are fitted to real data sets.

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Submitted by José Ignacio Valencia Díaz (jivalenciadiaz@gmail.com) on 2013-09-17T00:13:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao MPFE Jose Ignacio Valencia Diaz.pdf: 1741345 bytes, checksum: b45af943bf4f6e8a2a9963c07038d9dc (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-09-17T12:05:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao MPFE Jose Ignacio Valencia Diaz.pdf: 1741345 bytes, checksum: b45af943bf4f6e8a2a9963c07038d9dc (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-17T12:54:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao MPFE Jose Ignacio Valencia Diaz.pdf: 1741345 bytes, checksum: b45af943bf4f6e8a2a9963c07038d9dc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-08-26 / Prediction models based on nonparametric estimation are in continuous development and have been permeating the quantitative community. Their main feature is that they do not consider as known a priori the form of the probability distributions functions (PDF), but allow the data to be used directly in order to build their own PDFs. In this work it is implemented the nonparametric pooled estimators from Sam and Jiang (2009) for drift and diffusion functions for the short rate diffusion process, by means of the use of yield series of different maturities provided by One Day Future Interbank Deposit contracts (ID1). The estimators are built from the perspective of kernel functions and they are optimized with a particular kernel format, in our case, Epanechnikov’s kernel, and with a smoothing parameter (bandwidth). Empiric experience indicates that the smoothing parameter is critical to find the probability density function that provides an optimal estimation in terms of MISE (Mean Integrated Squared Error) when testing the model with the traditional k-folds cross-validation method. Exceptions arise when the series do not have appropriate sizes, but the structural break of the diffusion process of the Brazilian interest short rate, since 2006, requires the reduction of the length of the series to the cost of reducing the predictive power of the model. This structural break represents the evolution of the Brazilian market, in an attempt to converge towards mature markets and it explains largely the unsatisfactory performance of the proposed estimator. / Modelos de predição baseados em estimações não-paramétricas continuam em desenvolvimento e têm permeado a comunidade quantitativa. Sua principal característica é que não consideram a priori distribuições de probabilidade conhecidas, mas permitem que os dados passados sirvam de base para a construção das próprias distribuições. Implementamos para o mercado brasileiro os estimadores agrupados não-paramétricos de Sam e Jiang (2009) para as funções de drift e de difusão do processo estocástico da taxa de juros instantânea, por meio do uso de séries de taxas de juros de diferentes maturidades fornecidas pelos contratos futuros de depósitos interfinanceiros de um dia (DI1). Os estimadores foram construídos sob a perspectiva da estimação por núcleos (kernels), que requer para a sua otimização um formato específico da função-núcleo. Neste trabalho, foi usado o núcleo de Epanechnikov, e um parâmetro de suavizamento (largura de banda), o qual é fundamental para encontrar a função de densidade de probabilidade ótima que forneça a estimação mais eficiente em termos do MISE (Mean Integrated Squared Error - Erro Quadrado Integrado Médio) no momento de testar o modelo com o tradicional método de validação cruzada de k-dobras. Ressalvas são feitas quando as séries não possuem os tamanhos adequados, mas a quebra estrutural do processo de difusão da taxa de juros brasileira, a partir do ano 2006, obriga à redução do tamanho das séries ao custo de reduzir o poder preditivo do modelo. A quebra estrutural representa um processo de amadurecimento do mercado brasileiro que provoca em grande medida o desempenho insatisfatório do estimador proposto.

La qualité des surfaces des veines fluides fermées des pièces tournantes de turbomachine participe au rendement de la turbomachine. Il est donc essentiel de maîtriser la finition des veines en usinage 5 axes avec une fraise boule. L'alliage de titane Ti6Al4V est l'un des matériaux utilisés et souffre d'une faible usinabilité. Le choix des paramètres de coupe conditionne la qualité de surface et la durée de vie de la fraise. Pour maîtriser le fraisage 5 axes, des méthodes de caractérisation de la coupe sont développées pour des trajectoires linéaire et circulaire. Les diamètres effectifs et l'épaisseur coupée sont à l'origine de plusieurs phénomènes associés à la coupe tels que la vitesse de coupe, la vitesse d'évolution de l'usure d'outil, des modes d'usinage et des efforts de coupe. Des essais font le lien entre les mesures d'efforts de coupe et d'état de surface avec les méthodes de caractérisation de la coupe. Une fois l'usinage 5 axes en fraise boule caractérisé, deux stratégies de finition multiaxes de veines fermées sont développées en gardant constantes la vitesse d'avance du point générateur et l'orientation relative de l'axe de l'outil avec la normale de la surface locale. La stratégie de tréflage se caractérise par une trajectoire continue en courbure. La stratégie de contournage hélicoïdal met en évidence des discontinuités en tangence de la trajectoire. Une méthode de lissage local de trajectoire est alors développée pour assurer un comportement cinématique et dynamique raisonnable de la machine. / The surface quality of closed fluid veins rotating parts of turbo machines participates in the machine output. It is therefore essential to control the finishing of veins in 5-axis machining with a ball end mill. The titanium alloy Ti6Al4V is one of the materials used and suffers from a poor machinability. The choice of cutting parameters affects the surface quality and the life of the cutter. In order to control the 5-axis milling, characterization methods of cutting are developed for linear and circular paths. Effective diameters and the uncut chip thickness is responsible for several phenomena associated with the cut such as the cutting speed, the speed of evolution of the tool wear, the milling modes and cutting forces. Tests are the link between measures of cutting forces and surface quality and characterization methods of cutting. Once the 5-axis machining with ball end mill characterized, two strategies of finishing closed veins in multiaxis are developed keeping constant the feed speed of the contact and the relative orientation of the tool axis with the normal the local surface. The plunge milling strategy is characterized by a curvature continuous trajectory. The helical milling strategy reveals tangent discontinuities of the trajectory. A method of local smoothing trajectory is then developed to provide a reasonable kinematics and dynamics behavior of machine.

[pt] Nesta dissertação é desenvolvida uma metodologia para previsão de demanda mensal de energia elétrica considerando cenários de racionamento. A metodologia usada consiste em, a partir das taxas de crescimento da série temporal, identificar e eliminar os efeitos do racionamento de energia elétrica através da aplicação de Modelos Lineares Dinâmicos. São analisadas também estruturas de intervenção nos modelos estatísticos de Box & Jenkins e Holt & Winters. Os modelos são então comparados segundo alguns critérios, basicamente no que tange à sua eficiência preditiva. Conclui-se ao final sobre a eficiência da metodologia proposta, dado a grande dificuldade para solucionar o problema a partir dos modelos estatísticos de Box & Jenkins e Holt & Winters. Esta solução é então proposta como a mais viável para criar cenários de racionamento e pósracionamento de energia para ser utilizado por agentes do sistema elétrico nacional. / [en] In this dissertation, a methodology is developed to forecast monthly demand of electric energy, considering the rationing scenery. The methodology is based on, taking the growth rate from the time series, identify and eliminate the effects of electric energy rationing, using Dynamic Linear Models. It is also analyzed intervention structures in the statistics models of Box & Jenkins and Holt & Winters. The models are compared according to some criterions, mainly forecast accuracy. At the end, we concluded that the methodology proposed is more efficient, due to the difficult to solve the problem using the statistics models with intervention. This solution is proposed as the best among them to create scenery during the energy rationing and after energy rationing, to be used by the national electric system agents.

本論文之研究目的係驗證銀行管理當局是透過盈餘平穩化，增加盈餘對於未來盈餘的訊息，抑或是操控會計數字從而降低盈餘品質。本文採用兩種指標衡量盈餘平穩化：裁決性的貸款損失準備與公允價值第二等級與第三等級輸入值。以美國銀行作為本論文的樣本標的，經由實證結果發現，盈餘平穩化程度較高的銀行其股價能反映更多未來盈餘的資訊，顯示著平穩化程度會增加銀行當期盈餘對於未來盈餘的預測能力。除此之外，本文依照銀行規模與業務特性，分別比較大小銀行;商業銀行與儲蓄機構，個別探討盈餘平穩化和盈餘資訊性間的關聯。 / This paper investigates whether bank income smoothing is due to communication of future earnings or opportunism to garble accounting numbers. I adopt two measures of bank income smoothing, i.e., discretionary loan loss provision and Level 2&3 fair value inputs. Using a sample of U.S. banks, I find that higher-smoothing banks’ current stock prices capture more information about their future earnings to a larger extent than those of lower-smoothing banks. Moreover, I separate the bigger banks from the small banks and differentiate commercial banks from saving institutions to particularly investigate the association between income smoothing and earnings informativeness.