This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the human population not only by age and sex - as is conventionally done in demographic projections - but also by different levels of educational attainment the most fundamental aspects of human development and social change are being explicitly addressed through modeling the changing composition of populations by these three important individual characteristics. The scenarios have been defined in a collaborative effort of the international Integrated Assessment Modeling community with themedium scenario following that of a major new effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OEAW, WU) involving over 550 experts from around the world. As a result, in terms of total world population size the trajectories resulting from the five SSPs stay very close to each other until around 2030 and by the middle of the century already a visible differentiation appears with the range between the highest (SSP3) and the lowest (SSP1) trajectories spanning 1.5 billion. The range opens up much more with the SSP3 reaching 12.6 billion in 2100 and SSP1 falling to 6.9 billion which is lower than today's world population.

Master of Science / Department of Horticulture, Forestry, and Recreation Resources / Charles J. Barden / Due to health and nutritional disparities, prevalence of obesity and related diseases among American Indians is found to be higher than the U.S. general population. To promote a healthy lifestyle, the long term goal of this project is to increase fresh fruit and vegetable availability through gardening for the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation (PBPN) tribe in Kansas. In achieving this ultimate goal, two studies were conducted with the objectives of: 1) Evaluate the nutritional and behavioral health indicators for the residential population of the tribe and identify key constraints of gardening activity in the reservation; and 2) Conduct vegetable cultivar trials comparing different open pollinated (OP) and hybrid cultivars of tomato (Lycopersicon lycopersicum), pepper (Capsicum annum) and eggplant (Solanum melongena var. esculentum) to identify best yielding cultivars. Three surveys were conducted to assess the residential population with respect to gardening activity, fruit and vegetable consumption, health status, physical activity and socioeconomic status, using convenience samples. Cultivar trials comparing 6 pepper, 3 eggplant, and 5 tomato cultivars were conducted in 2012 and 2013 growing seasons. PBPN respondent group revealed significant health disparities compared to the general U.S. and Kansas populations. A higher proportion of this group was in poverty which had strong correlations with land ownership, gardening experience, and attendance to gardening workshops. “No knowledge” and “no space” were identified as key gardening constraints. Hybrid Jetstar was the best tomato cultivar identified, while Cherokee Purple was the best yielding OP cultivar. No difference in performance was observed among the three eggplant cultivars tested. Sweet pepper hybrids Flamingo and Alliance outperformed OP California Wonder which was moderate in production. OP chili pepper cultivars Anaheim 118 and hybrid Chili G76 outperformed hybrid Charger. Identified best yielding cultivars could be distributed among tribal members to support in-place gardening initiatives. Gardening limitations of “no land” and “no knowledge” could be mitigated by increasing participation at the community garden and attendance for gardening workshops. Strategic approaches should be implemented to attract people in poverty to engage in gardening and increase gardening activity in the reservation for nutritional, health and economic benefits.

Master of Arts / Department of Sociology, Anthropology, and Social Work / Laszlo Kulcsar / Environmental, economic and social conditions have changed drastically throughout Great Plains farming communities. In Southwest Kansas, the Ogallala Aquifer supports extensive agricultural industries and family farms through hyper-extraction of groundwater resources. Capitalistic ventures in farming have led to socials changes like declining community populations, out-migration of youth and family farm transformations. The relationship between environmental change, economic development and social changes is explored through a case study of Haskell County Kansas. Interviews were conducted to understand residents' perspectives of declining environmental resources available to achieve continued economic development by way of family farming. Residents also explain social changes that have resulted from evolving economic conditions and increasing use of groundwater resources.

This diploma thesis which is devided into four parts is trying to map the current state of the statuory city Zlín and identify opportunities and barriers of its further development. The first section provides a theoretical basis for understanding the problems of cities and municipal development and also introduces the method of SWOT analysis, which is used in this thesis as well. Second, the most extensive section is devoted to an socioeconomic analysis and constitutes a basis for the next two chapters. The analysis is divided thematically and tries to outline the development and current situation of the city. The third part consists of a SWOT analysis of Zlín, which describes its strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the future. Last, the fourth chapter shows the possibilities and barriers to the development of the city, divided into six thematic groups: population; business environment, transport, environment, culture, sport and leisure, tourism and public administration. It also outlines how to exploit opportunities and overcome barriers.

The aim of this dissertation is to describe socioeconomic development of Central - Bohemian region and one of the Operational program, which is the Joint Regional Operational Programme (JROP). It contains the comparison of the chosen demographic and socioeconomic indicators during the period 2000-2009 and the benefits of JROP in the Central - Bohemian region. The dissertation is divided into two main parts. In the first one is presented Central - Bohemia region, and the description of the covered indicators, e.g. the structure of the inhabitants in detail of sex and age, natality, structure of abortions, marriages, divorces, migration, and the measurement of these indicators. Further, the basic socioeconomic parameters as the labor market and the associated unemployment, trend of the GDP, transport infrastructure, and opportunities in tourism are described, followed by description of particular Priorities of the operational program. In the analytical part, the comparison and evaluation of the covered indicators in detail of districts in Central Bohemia Region and successfulness of JROP priority axis covering all the Central Bohemian Region is included. Successful projects, amount of paid financial sources to final beneficiaries in detail of particular regions according to priorities.

This case study investigated the phenomenon of the black white test score gap by seeking to determine if there was a difference in the academic performance of African American students and their White peers. The determination of student academic performance was made using scores from second semester Algebra II classes at two high schools in the Tucson Unified School District. The data covered three academic years and was analyzed via SPSS (independent samples t-test, ANOVA, and a pairwise analysis) and content analysis for qualitative analysis. Findings revealed that there was no variance in the scores of African Americans and their White peers attending an affluent school; however African Americans attending a low-income school scored lower than all groups that were compared in this study.

Fatores socioeconômicos tem sido associado com problemas relacionados à saúde, entretanto nenhum estudo investigou especificamente o impacto a longo prazo das diferenças socioeconômicas no desempenho da marcha. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o desempenho da marcha de idosos nascidos, criados e vivendo atualmente em regiões com diferentes Índices de Desenvolvimento Humano (IDH) sob a marcha habitual e em condições de dupla-tarefa. Métodos: Estudo transversal multi-país conduzido com uma amostra de 373 idosos divididos em três regiões com diferentes IDH\'s: Coari, estado do Amazonas, Brasil (n = 124, IDH-baixo = 0,586); Ribeirão Preto, estado de São Paulo, Brasil (n = 109, IDH-alto = 0,800); e London, Província de Ontario, Canadá (n = 140, IDH-muito alto = 0,905). Informações sobre dados socioeconômicos, demográficos, condições de saúde e histórico de quedas nos últimos seis meses foram registrados, e a função física dos membros inferiores foi avaliada pelo Short Physical Perfomance Battery (SPPB). O desempenho da marcha foi avaliado utilizando GAITRite Platinum 26\' Portable Walkway System em duas situações diferentes: marcha habitual e marcha associada a dupla-tarefa (nomear animais enquanto caminha). As variáveis de interesse foram: velocidade (cm/s), cadência (passos/min), tempo da passada (milissegundos), comprimento do passo (cm) e largura da passada (cm), além da variabilidade da marcha e o custo da dupla-tarefa para cada variável. A análise de comparação entre os grupos no desempenho da marcha, foi realizada usando um modelo linear geral multivariado, e a variabilidade da marcha, bem como o custo da dupla-tarefa analisados pela ANOVA one-way. O teste post-hoc de Bonferroni foi usado para determinar as diferenças entre os grupos quando apropriado. Os modelos estatísticos foram ajustados por várias covariáveis, incluindo anos de estudo. Resultados: idosos do grupo IDH-baixo apresentaram menor velocidade, menor cadência, maior tempo da passada, comprimento do passo mais curto comparado com os idosos dos outros dois grupos, IDH-alto e IDH-muito alto, e menor largura da passada comparado ao grupoIDH-alto. Maior variabilidade do comprimento do passo foi encontrada no grupo IDHmuito alto comparado aos dois grupos brasileiros, IDH-baixo e IDH-alto. O custo da dupla-tarefa na marcha para velocidade, comprimento do passo e variabilidade do comprimento do passo foi maior entre os idosos do grupo IDH-baixo quando comparados aos outros dois grupos. As diferenças estatísticas foram atenuadas, mas não desapareceram após o ajuste por anos de educação. Conclusões: Idosos vivendo em regiões com baixo IDH apresentam pior desempenho da marcha durante a tarefa simples (habitual) e em condições de dupla-tarefa comparados com idosos que vivem em regiões com alto ou muito alto IDH. Menos anos de escolaridade pode limitar a capacidade de processamento central dos idosos, afetando potencialmente o desempenho da marcha / Socioeconomic factors have been associated with health-related problems, however no study has specifically investigated the long-term impact of socioeconomic differences on gait performance. The aim of this study was to assess gait patterns of older adults born, raised and currently living in regions with different Human Development Indexes (HDI), under single and dual-task conditions. Methods: This is a cross-sectional multi-country design study conducted with a sample of 373 older adults divided into three regions with different HDIs: Coari, Amazonas state, Brazil (n= 124, Low-HDI = 0.586); Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo state, Brazil (n= 109, High-HDI = 0.800); and London, Ontario, Canada (n=140, Very high-HDI = 0.905). Socioeconomic, demographics, health conditions and history of falls in the last six months information were recorded, and the physical function of the lower limbs was assessed by the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). Gait performance was assessed using GAITRite Platinum 26 \'Portable Walkway System under two conditions: single task (usual pace) and dual-task (walking while naming animals). The interest variables were: gait speed (cm / s), cadence (steps / min), stride time (milliseconds), step length (cm), step width (cm), gait variability, as well as, dual-task cost for each variable. Gait performance comparison analysis between groups was performed using a general linear model multivariate, and gait variability as well as dual-task cost were analyzed by one-way ANOVA. Bonferroni post-hoc test was used to determine differences between groups when appropriate. The statistical models were adjusted for several covariates, including years of study. Results: Older adults from lowHDI group presented slower gait speed, slower cadence, higher stride time, shorter step length, compared with individuals from both High-HDI and Very high-HDI groups, and shorter stride width compared to High-HDI. Higher step length variability was found in Very High-HDI group compared to both Brazilian groups, Low-HDI, and High-HDI. Dual-task gait cost for gait speed, step length, and step length variability was higher among older adults living in low HDI when compared with high, and very high HDIgroup. The statistical differences between groups were deeply attenuated, but not vanished, after adjusting for years of education. Conclusion: Individuals living in regions with Low-HDI present worse gait performance during single and dual-task conditions compared with individuals living in High- and Very-High HDIs. Fewer years of education may limit central processing capacity of older potentially affecting gait performance

ABSTRACT: Background: Malaria is endemic throughout Ghana and continues to be a major public health concern especially among pregnant women and children under the age of five. The Ministry of Health (MoH) estimates that over the past ten years, there have been 2-3 million cases of malaria each year, representing 40 percent of outpatient cases, while severe malaria accounts for 33-36 percent of in-patients. Malaria also accounts for 25 percent of the deaths in children under the age of five (GHS, 2001). Correct identification of risk factors could focus interventions at reducing malaria mortality in children. Demographic Surveillance System (DSS) sites have been established and they generate high quality population based longitudinal health and demographic data. The DSS conduct Verbal Autopsies to determine probable causes of death. Objective: This study examines factors affecting childhood malaria mortality in Northern Ghana, using longitudinal data collected by the Navrongo DSS during the period 1995- 2000. It deals especially with the role of socioeconomic factors (mother’s education, family wealth index based on the possessions and housing characteristics and residence, and possession of bed net) and the demographic characteristics (child’s sex and age, and mother’s age). Design: Secondary data analysis of longitudinal data collected by the Navrongo Health Research Centre. Multinomial logistic regression was used to compare the relative risk in three groups of children i.e. those who died of Malaria and those who died of other causes to those who survived as base. Results: Overall, for the deaths due to malaria, older children (1-5years) had a higher risk (RRR 1.4, 95%CI 1.25-1.57 P <0.0001) of dying compared to the infants. Equally, children born of older mothers (maternal age at birth of child >30 years) had a higher risk (RRR 1.28, 95%CI 1.15-1.42 P <0.0001). However, maternal education and residence had a protective effect, with children born of mothers who had some education (RRR 0.79, 95%CI 0.67-0.93 P=0.004) and residing in urban area (RRR 0.61, 95%CI 0.46-0.82 P=0.001) having a lower risk. Similarly, those children whose families are in the highest wealth index had a lower risk (RRR 0.76, 95%CI 0.63-0.91 P=0.003). Interestingly, the same factors were associated with deaths occurring due to other causes, but with varying degree of association. Whereas sex of child was not associated with malaria deaths, being female offered a lower risk of dying from other causes (RRR 0.9, 95%CI 0.84-0.98 P=0.017). It was observed that children in the older age group (1-5 years) were at higher risk of dying (RRR 1.14, 95%CI 1.05-1.25 P=0.002) just as those born of older mothers (RRR 1.16, 95%CI 1.07-1.26 P <0.0001). Even in this group, maternal education (RRR 0.87, 95%CI 0.76-0.98 P=0.023), a higher wealth index (RR 0.87, 95%CI 0.77-0.99 P=0.032 and RRR 0.63 95%CI 0.54-0.73 P <0.0001 for the two highest categories of wealth indices respectively), and area of residence (RRR 0.67, 95%CI 0.55-0.83 P <0.0001) offered a reduction in the risk of dying. Conclusion: The study identified the risk factors (age and sex of the child and mother’s age, maternal education, wealth and residence of the family) associated with malaria mortality and other causes of death in childhood in northern Ghana and this should help formulate cost effective interventions such as health education.

Os estudos sobre os hábitos e comportamentos alimentares da sociedade são importantes para auxiliar na compreensão da relação que se estabelece entre as práticas alimentares e o surgimento de doenças na população. Desde meados do século XX, o Brasil vem apresentando mudanças no padrão de morbi-mortalidade de sua população, ou seja, ao mesmo tempo em que indivíduos de áreas economicamente mais carentes sofrem com o problema da desnutrição, outra grande parcela populacional convive com doenças degenerativas ou crônico não-transmissíveis. Esse fenômeno, chamado de transição nutricional, surgiu primeiramente nos países desenvolvidos e atualmente atinge os países em desenvolvimento de forma mais acelerada. Diante desta realidade, este trabalho teve por objetivo comparar o estado nutricional e o consumo alimentar de 575 indivíduos adultos moradores de quatro bairros da cidade de Ribeirão Preto – SP, com características socioeconômicas distintas e em dois momentos diferentes, 1991/93 e 2001/03. Para avaliação do estado nutricional foi realizado o cálculo do Índice de Massa Corporal (IMC), no qual os indivíduos foram pesados e medidos e classificados segundo os padrões da Organização Mundial de Saúde. As informações sobre o consumo alimentar foram obtidas pelo método do recordatório de 24 horas e a ingestão de calorias, carboidratos, proteínas, gorduras totais e suas frações, colesterol e fibras foi calculada com auxílio de software nutricional. Também, analisou-se a qualidade da alimentação dos indivíduos pela avaliação do número de porções alimentares consumidas, segundo os oito grupos de alimentos da Pirâmide Alimentar Brasileira. Os dados foram transferidos para a planilha do SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences) onde os cálculos estatísticos foram realizados (análise de variância - ANOVA, teste de Bonferroni e teste-t). Como resultados houve diminuição do consumo de alimentos do grupo de pães e cereais e aumento do consumo de carnes e ovos, açúcar e alimentos ricos em gorduras saturadas e colesterol. O consumo de frutas, verduras, hortaliças e fibras aumentou de 1991/93 para 2001/03, entretanto a ingestão permaneceu bem abaixo dos níveis recomendados. Refrigerantes e produtos prontos industrializados também cresceram muito no período. Notou-se ainda que os moradores do bairro com menor renda familiar média tiveram aumento significativo do IMC juntamente com elevação do consumo de gorduras totais e saturadas e do número de porções de carnes e ovos. Já os habitantes do bairro de maior renda familiar média diminuíram o consumo de gorduras totais e saturadas e mantiveram a ingestão adequada do número de porções de carnes e ovos. Esse paradoxo que o país enfrenta tem despertado interesse de vários segmentos na busca de soluções, cujos resultados serão promissores se envolverem não só as ciências nutricionais, mas outras áreas como a economia, a sociologia, a administração e a psicologia, associado ao trabalho de conscientização do papel dos atores sociais (pais, educadores, profissionais da saúde, governantes) responsáveis pela reversão deste quadro tão complexo. / The studies about habits and eating behaviors in society are important to help in the understanding the relation that is established between food practices and the appearance of illnesses in the population. Brazil has been presenting changes in patterns of morbidmortality in its population since the middle of the 20th. Century, i.e., since people belonging to low income classes suffer from underfeeding, people belonging to other social classes present degenerative illnesses or chronic non-transmitted illnesses. This phenomenon called nutritional transition first appeared in developed countries and now it also affects developing countries in an accelerated way. Considering this fact, this research aims at comparing the nutritional state and food consumption in 575 adults living in four different neighborhoods in Ribeirão Preto, SP in Brazil. They belong to distinct socioeconomical classes and the research focused two different periods: 1991/93 and 2001/03. To evaluate the nutritional state, a calculation of the Body Mass Index (IMC) was made, following the World Health Organization patterns, in which people are weighed and measured accordingly. Information about eating habits were made through the 24 hours remembering method and the ingestion of calories, carbohydrates, proteins, total fat and its fractions, cholesterol and fibers were calculated using a nutritional software. It was also analyzed the quality of feeding, considering the evaluation of the number of food portions consumed, according to the eight groups of food items, in the Brazilian Feeding Pyramid. The data were transferred to spreadsheets of Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) where the statistical calculations were made (variance analysis – ANOVA, Bonferroni Test and Test-t). As a result there was a decrease in cereals and bread group’s consumption and an increase in the consumption of meat, eggs, sugar and food rich in saturated fat and cholesterol. The consumption of fruits, vegetables and fibers increased from 1991/93 to 2001/03, but the ingestion remained under the recommended levels. The use of soft drinks or sodas and industrialized products such as ready-made dishes also increased greatly. It was verified that in the inhabitants of the neighborhood with lower familiar income that they had an increase in the Body Mass Index which occurred at the same time with the consumption of total fats and saturated fats and the number of portions of meat and eggs. By the other side, the inhabitants of the neighborhood with higher familiar income reduced the consumption of total fats and saturated fats and kept the adequate ingestion of portions of meat and eggs. This paradox that our country faces has called the interest of may society sectors, aiming at solutions, which will be successful if they get involved not only the nutritional sciences, as well as other areas like economics, sociology, administration and psychology, associated to a work of awareness from social actors like parents, teachers, health professionals and government to revert such complex situation.

A utilização majoritária da malha ferroviária brasileira para o transporte de cargas e a sua incompatibilidade para desenvolvimento de altas velocidades inviabiliza a oferta de serviços competitivos para o transporte intermunicipal de passageiros. A questão explorada nesta tese é sobre qual tecnologia ferroviária provê melhores resultados socioeconômicos no contexto de uma nova rede para o transporte intermunicipal de passageiros com operação exclusiva de Trens de Alto Desempenho (High Performance Trains - HPTs) ou Trens de Alta Velocidade (High Speed Trains - HSTs), caracterizados por velocidades médias de 150 km/h e 300 km/h respectivamente. Nesse sentido, a hipótese é que a diferença entre benefícios e custos socioeconômicos da oferta de serviços de HSTs resultam em valores positivos e maiores do que aquelas decorrentes da operação de HPTs, mediante parâmetros específicos de avaliação socioeconômica e uma configuração hipotética de rede na Região Sudeste do Brasil. Assim, o objetivo principal da tese é estimar e comparar os custos e benefícios socioeconômicos de uma rede ferroviária pela estimativa dos investimentos para a construção de novos traçados ferroviários, estimativa do número de viagens intermunicipais na Região Sudeste em um horizonte de planejamento estratégico e a propensão à escolha modal, estabelecimento de uma formulação de Análise Custo-Benefício (Cost Benefit Analysis - CBA) e aplicação dos modelos em cenários considerando a operação exclusiva de HPTs ou de HSTs. A resolução do problema de otimização de traçados ferroviários, com uma abordagem de computação paralela aplicada a um Algoritmo Genético, indica que os investimentos em infraestrutura variam majoritariamente em função da topografia, os custos de desapropriações são proporcionalmente pequenos e as restrições geométricas dos traçados não influenciam significativamente nesses resultados. Após a projeção do número de viagens intermunicipais por modelos analíticos, os dados coletados em uma pesquisa de preferência declarada são utilizados para modelagem da propensão à escolha modal. Finalmente, uma proposta de formulação para o cálculo dos principais itens de custos e benefícios de uma avaliação socioeconômica para o transporte ferroviário de passageiros viabiliza a análise de cenários em função de produtividade da construção da infraestrutura, variabilidade dos investimentos estimados e capacidade de atração de demanda reprimida. Os resultados dos cenários indicam que a diferença entre os benefícios estritamente econômicos (receita operacional e valor residual dos investimentos em infraestrutura) e os custos de construção e operacionais são negativos para qualquer tarifa ferroviária, apesar dos resultados para a rede de HSTs serem maiores do que para a de HPTs. Considerando os aspectos sociais, os benefícios totais da operação ferroviária sobrepõem-se aos seus custos em situações tarifárias específicas, novamente com resultados maiores para uma rede de HSTs, cuja tendência também é observada quando apenas os benefícios sociais são relacionados com custos totais através de uma Razão Benefício-Custo (Benefit-Cost Ratio - BCR). Portanto, segundo as premissas desta tese, há indícios que o investimento em uma infraestrutura ferroviária aparentemente não é uma decisão promissora em termos de viabilidade socioeconômica, apesar da operação de HSTs ser mais conveniente do que HPTs nas condições analisadas. / The major use of the Brazilian railway network for freight transport and its incompatibi-lity with high speed trains does not enable running competitive services of intercity passenger transport. The research question of this thesis is which rolling stock technology provides better socioeconomic results on a new intercity passenger network with exclusive operation of High Performance Trains (HPTs) or High Speed Trains (HSTs) with average speeds of 150 km/h and 300 km/h respectively. The hypothesis is that the difference between the socioeconomic benefits and costs of operating HSTs results in positive values and greater than those from the operation of HPTs given specific socioeconomic parameters and a hypothetical network in the Southeastern region of Brazil. The main goal of this research is to estimate and compare the major socioeconomic costs and benefits of a hypothetical railway network by first estimating the required investments of new alignments. Furthermore, the number of trips among cities in the Southeastern Region over a strategic planning horizon and the mode choice are estimated and a Cost-Benefit Analysis formulation is provided to be applied to scenarios of exclusive operation of HPTs or HSTs. The solution of the railway alignment optimization problem with a parallel computing approach applied to a Genetic Algorithm shows that the infrastructure investments vary mainly due to the topography, whereas the expropriation costs are proporti-onally small and the railway geometric constraints do not significantly affect the results. The number of trips by transport mode over a planning horizon is expanded analytically and the collected data of a stated preference survey is applied to a mode choice modeling approach. Finally, a formulation for the major items of costs and benefits of a socioeconomic assessment for a rail passenger transport project is proposed and it is applied to specific scenarios where the effects of the infrastructure building productivity, variability of the estimated investments, and the ability to attract new passengers are analyzed. The results from these scenarios show that the difference between the operating income and the net residual value of investments in infrastructure, construction and operating costs are negative for any rail fare, despite the results for the network of HSTs being higher than for HPTs. Furthermore, the overall benefits of the railway operation outweigh the costs in specific pricing policies with better results for a network operating HSTs. This trend is also noticed when only the social benefits are compared to the total costs by a Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR). Therefore, there is evidence that the investment in railway infrastructure for passenger transport apparently is not a promising decision in terms of socioeconomic feasibility under the assumptions of this thesis, despite the operation of HSTs being more attractive than HPTs under the specified conditions.