Objetivo Caracterizar a ocorrência de dengue na cidade de Rio Brando, estado do Acre, no período de 2000 a 2007, no tempo, no espaço e segundo infestação pelo Aedes aegypti e vari- áveis demográficas, socioeconômicas, ambientais e climáticas. Métodos Foi realizada uma descrição da incidência de dengue (CI) e da infestação predial pelo Aedes aegypti (IIP) no período de 2000 a 2007 a partir de dados secundários. Descreveu-se a incidência da dengue em relação ao sexo, faixa etária e escolaridade. O Coeficiente de Incidência e o Índice de In- festação Predial foram testados para aferição de correlações com variáveis climáticas, demo- gráficas, ambientais e socioeconômicas. Foi aplicada a técnica de geoprocessamento com o uso da estatística espacial de Moran Global e Local (LISA) para avaliar a autocorrelação es- pacial dos coeficientes de incidência de dengue entre as localidades urbanas da cidade. Resul- tados - A epidemiologia da dengue na cidade é caracterizada por elevada incidência e intensa infestação predial pelo Aedes aegypti. Não existe diferença na incidência de dengue entre ho- mens e mulheres e a faixa etária mais acometida compreende jovens e adultos de 15 a 49 anos e escolares que não concluíram o ensino médio. A distribuição da doença mostra um padrão sazonal com elevação da incidência nos períodos chuvosos e regressão nos períodos secos. O aumento de casos de dengue e da infestação predial mostrou associação significante (p<0,05) com bairros populosos, onde existe muitos imóveis e alta infestação predial. O aumento das ocorrências se mostrou significante com áreas com baixo índice de abastecimento de água pela rede pública. O Índice de Qualidade de Vida (IQV) não apresentou correlação significa- tiva com a ocorrência de dengue, entretanto, a infestação predial foi mais elevada nos bairros com melhor IQV. A estatística de Moran Global e Local (LISA) mostrou fraca dependência espacial (p<0,05) da incidência de dengue entre bairros da cidade. Conclusão - A análise epi- demiológica da dengue na cidade permitiu visualizar fatores que estão relacionados à trans- missão de dengue e na proliferação do Aedes aegypti que podem ser avaliados na formulação de estratégias mais eficazes para alcançar o melhor controle da doença. O uso da análise espa- cial evidenciou que a distribuição da incidência de dengue entre os bairros da cidade ocorre de maneira aleatória / Objective - Characterize the ocurring of dengue in the city of Rio Branco, Acre, during the period 2000 to 2007, in time and space, and according to the infestation of Aedes Aegypti and the demographic, social-economical, environmental and climatical variables. Methods - a description of dengue incidence (CI) and the house infestation by Aedes aegypti (HI) was made in the period of 2000 to 2007 from secondary data. The distribution of cases was described according to gender, age and education. The Incidence Coefficient of incidence and the House Index Infestation were tested to measure their correlations with demographic, environmental and socioeconomic climatic variables. The geoprocessing technique was applied with the use of Global and Local Moran (LISA) spatial statistics to evaluate spatial autocorrelation of incidence of dengue among the urban localities in the city. Results - The epidemiology of dengue in the city is characterized by high incidence and severe infestation of Aedes aegypti. Theres no difference between the incidence of dengue on men and women and the most affected age group comprises young adults from the age of 15 to 49 years old and students who have not completed high school. The distribution of the disease shows a seasonal pattern with increased incidence in rainy periods and regression in dry periods. The increase of dengue cases and the building infestation showed significant association (p <0.05) with the populated districts, where there are many buildings and high building infestation. The increase in occurrence was found significant in areas with low public water supply. The Quality of Life Index (QLI) showed no significant correlation with the occurrence of dengue, however, the infestation rate was higher in districts with better QLI. Global and Local Moran (LISA) statistics showed weak spatial dependence (p <0.05) of the incidence of dengue among neighborhoods. Conclusion - The epidemiological analysis of dengue in the city allowed the visualization of the factors that are related to the transmission of dengue and the proliferation of Aedes aegypti that can be assessed in the formulation of more effective strategies to achieve better control of the disease. The use of the spatial analysis revealed the randomness of dengue incidence distribution among the neighborhoods of the city

Orientador: Ricardo Jannini Sawaya / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Biologia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-25T23:18:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Pires_ThiagoAugusto_M.pdf: 2411650 bytes, checksum: 8eb94586d77742cae5062b5aec5233a8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: Em termos gerais, comunidades biológicas podem ser estruturadas por elementos que ocorrem em escalas espaciais diversas, que incluem fatores bióticos (e.g., competição e predação); fatores abióticos (e.g., heterogeneidade ambiental), históricos (e.g., eventos de extinção e colonização; e dinâmicas neutras (e.g., dispersões e extinções locais e aleatórias). Uma das formas mais interessantes de se estudar a estrutura de comunidades é a partir da investigação de como diferentes processos e mecanismos influenciam diferentes escalas ou componentes da biodiversidade. Por exemplo, o componente da diversidadebeta, uma medida de dissimilaridade entre comunidades, primariamente avaliada através da presença e ausência das espécies em cada comunidade. Outra forma utilizada por ecólogos para compreender a estrutura de comunidades é avaliar a estrutura filogenética das comunidades. Através da avaliação dessas propriedades e quais possíveis fatores a influenciam, se torna possível compreender as regras de montagem e manutenção de comunidades. Nesse contexto, nossos objetivos gerais nessa dissertação foram: estimar a diversidade beta de anuros das planícies costeiras paulistas em seus diferentes componentes: funcional, taxonômico e filogenético; examinar quais preditores espaciais e ambientais melhor explicam a variação nos três componentes da diversidade avaliadas; avaliar a estrutura filogenética e funcional das comunidades de anuros; testar a conservação filogenética de atributos nos girinos para melhor compreensão da estrutura filogenética e funcional; e analisar quais preditores ambientais explicam melhor a variação na estrutura filogenética e funcional dos anuros. Encontramos que os preditores que mais explicam a variação nas diferentes faces da diversidade beta estudadas aqui (i.e. taxonômica, funcional e filogenética) são as variáveis espaciais. Esse resultado demostra a existência de uma clara x estrutura espacial nas diferentes faces diversidade beta de anuros nas planícies costeiras da mata atlântica no estado de São Paulo. Embora bem menos importante, as variáveis ambientais selecionadas (e.g. condutividade da água, pH e estrutura vegetal) também explicam uma fração importante da variação dos diferentes componentes da diversidade beta de anuros. As variações da diversidade beta taxonômica, funcional e filogenética dos girinos apresentam uma estrutura semelhante espacial assim como ambiental. Esse resultado pode estar revelando que processos, espaciais ou ecológicos, semelhantes, podem estar estruturando a diversidade beta de anuros nas planícies costeiras. Outro resultado interessante é que encontramos foi que das 33 comunidades avaliadas, 17 apresentam uma clara estrutura filogenética (agrupamento filogenético) e 12 apresentaram uma estrutura funcional agregada. A diversidade de atributos dos girinos é significantemente concentrada em poucos nós e próximos da raiz da filogenia, demostrando que girinos apresentam conservação filogenética de atributos na região estudada. Uma significante parte da variação na estrutura filogenética das comunidades é explicada por seis variáveis ambientais selecionadas, tais como a presença de potenciais predadores, diversidade de vegetação externa, cobertura de dossel, variáveis importantes, dentre as cinco selecionadas, para a estrutura funcional. Todas essas variáveis são importantes para o desenvolvimento, sobrevivência e consequentemente a ocorrência de anuros. Assim, estes resultados demonstram o importante papel dos processos ecológicos (filtros ambientais) e evolutivos (conservação filogenética de atributos) na estrutura funcional, refletida até mesmo na estrutura filogenética de anuros em planícies costeiras / Abstract: Generally, biological communities can be structured by elements that occurring in different spatial scales, which include biotic factors (e.g., competition and predation); abiotic factors (e.g., environmental heterogeneity); historical (e.g., colonization and extinction events); and neutral dynamics (e.g., local and random dispersal and extinctions). One of the most interesting approaches to study the structure of communities is based on the investigation of how different processes and mechanisms influence different scales or components of biodiversity. Such as the beta diversity component, a measure of dissimilarity between communities primarily assessed through the presence and absence of species in each community. Another method used by ecologists to understand the structure of communities is the evaluation of the phylogenetic and functional structure of the community. Through the assessment of these properties and the possible factors that may influencing it, is possible to comprehend the rules for assembly and maintenance of communities. In this context, our general objectives in this dissertation were: estimate the tadpoles¿ beta diversity from coastal plains of São Paulo states, in its different components: functional, taxonomic and phylogenetic; examine spatial and environmental predictors that best explain the variation in the three evaluated components of the beta diversity; assess the phylogenetic and functional structure of tadpoles¿ communities; test the traits phylogenetic conservation of tadpoles to better understand the phylogenetic and functional structure; and investigate the environmental predictors that better explain the variance in phylogenetic and functional structure of tadpoles¿ communities. We found that the spatial predictors explain more variation in the different faces of beta diversity studied here. This result demonstrates the existence of a clear spatial structure in different components of tadpoles¿ beta diversity in the coastal plains of the Atlantic Forest in the state of São Paulo. Although much less important, the selected environmental variables (e.g., water conductivity, pH and vegetation structure) also explain an important fraction of the variation in the different components of beta diversity. The variance of taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic tadpoles¿ beta diversity showed a similar spatial structure as well as environmental structure. This result could be revealing that processes similar (spatial or ecological) may be structuring beta diversity of anuran in the coastal plains. Another interesting result is that out of 33 communities assessed, 18 showed phylogenetic structure (phylogenetic clustering) and 12 displayed an aggregated functional structure. Furthermore, the diversity of tadpoles¿ traits is significantly concentrated in a few nodes and close to the root of the phylogeny, showing that tadpoles present traits phylogenetic conservation in the study area. A significant part of the variation in the phylogenetic structure of communities is explained by six environmental variables selected, such as presence of potential predators, external vegetation structure diversity and canopy cover, variables also significant to the functional structure, among the five selected. All variables are significant for development and survival of tadpoles. Thus, these results demonstrate the important role of ecological (environmental filters) and evolutionary processes (phylogenetic conservatism of traits) in functional structure, reflected even in phylogenetic structure of anurans in coastal plains / Mestrado / Ecologia / Mestre em Ecologia

Face au déclin global de la biodiversité, de nombreux suivis de populations animales et végétales sont réalisés sur de grandes zones géographiques et durant une longue période afin de comprendre les facteurs déterminant la distribution, l’abondance et les tendances des populations. Ces suivis à larges échelles permettent de statuer quantitativement sur l’état des populations et de mettre en place des plans de gestion appropriés en accord avec les échelles biologiques. L’analyse statistique de ce type de données n’est cependant pas sans poser un certain nombre de problèmes. Classiquement, on utilise des modèles linéaires généralisés (GLM), formalisant les liens entre des variables supposées influentes (par exemple caractérisant l’environnement) et la variable d’intérêt (souvent la présence / absence de l’espèce ou des comptages). Il se pose alors un problème majeur qui concerne la manière de sélectionner ces variables influentes dans un contexte de données spatialisées. Cette thèse explore différentes solutions et propose une méthode facilement applicable, basée sur une validation croisée tenant compte des dépendances spatiales. La robustesse de la méthode est évaluée par des simulations et différents cas d’études dont des données de comptages présentant une variabilité plus forte qu’attendue (surdispersion). Un intérêt particulier est aussi porté aux méthodes de modélisation pour les données ayant un nombre de zéros plus important qu’attendu (inflation en zéro). La dernière partie de la thèse utilise ces enseignements méthodologiques pour modéliser la distribution, l’abondance et les tendances des rapaces diurnes en France. / In the context of global biodiversity loss, more and more surveys are done at a broad spatial extent and during a long time period, which is done in order to understand processes driving the distribution, the abundance and the trends of populations at the relevant biological scales. These studies allow then defining more precise conservation status for species and establish pertinent conservation measures. However, the statistical analysis of such datasets leads some concerns. Usually, generalized linear models (GLM) are used, trying to link the variable of interest (e.g. presence/absence or abundance) with some external variables suspected to influence it (e.g. climatic and habitat variables). The main unresolved concern is about the selection of these external variables from a spatial dataset. This thesis details several possibilities and proposes a widely usable method based on a cross-validation procedure accounting for spatial dependencies. The method is evaluated through simulations and applied on several case studies, including datasets with higher than expected variability (overdispersion). A focus is also done for methods accounting for an excess of zeros (zero-inflation). The last part of this manuscript applies these methodological developments for modelling the distribution, abundance and trend of raptors breeding in France.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / We study the richness and the spatial distribution of anuran amphibians recorded in Parque Estadual do Turvo (PET), the largest remnant of Mesophytic Semideciduous Forest in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. In this study we (1) describe the composition of community of amphibians in PET, (2) compare the composition of species with those recorded in other localities of Seasonal Forests, testing the hypothesis that localities nearest the Misiones Nucleus support the current proposal of a new phytogeographic unit, known as Seasonal Rain Forest Region , and (3) we tested if the occurrence of breeding pond anurans differed from a null model of random placement, as well as we hypothesized that the environmental heterogeneity and spatial distribution of ponds influences the structure of anuran communities in southern Brazil. The species inventory was carried out using complementary sampling techniques (surveys at breeding sites, casual encounters, pitfall traps and search at scientific collections). To check the spatial distribution, we monitored 14 ponds with variable heterogeneity. We recorded 32 species of amphibians in the Park area, belonging to two orders: Anura, 30 native and one exotic species, and Gymnophiona, one species. The analysis of similarity among the localities of seasonal forests evidenced three groups with similarity of 45%: the former group was composed by localities of southeast and central-western Brazil, the second group was composed by southern localities, and the third group was composed by localities of the transition area with the Atlantic Forest sensu stricto. The second group supports the proposal of a new phytogeographic unit, known as 'Tropical Seasonal Forests Region'. We recorded 15 anuran species at the monitored ponds, and the species occurrence was clearly not random, corroborating our hypothesis that the anuran composition of species is influenced by environmental heterogeneity. The main descriptors of pond heterogeneity correlated with abundance of anuran species were area, depth, hydroperiod, percentage of vegetation cover on water surface, and distance of pond in relation to the nearest Park edges. The community structure of anurans was not affected by the geographical distribution of ponds. The results of the present study demonstrate that the heterogeneity of water bodies is a strong regulator of community structure of breeding pond amphibians and this information has implications for conservation strategies of Neotropical Austral anurans. / Estudamos a riqueza e a distribuição espacial da anurofauna registrada no Parque Estadual do Turvo (PET), maior remanescente de Floresta Estacional Semidecidual do estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. Nesse trabalho, (1) descrevemos a composição da comunidade de anuros do PET, (2) comparamos a composição da anurofauna com a de outras localidades de Florestas Estacionais, testando a hipótese de que as localidades próximas ao Núcleo Misiones corroboram a nova unidade fitogeográfica, conhecida como Região das Florestas Tropicais Sazonais , e (3), testamos se a ocorrência de espécies de anuros em poças é diferente de um modelo nulo de distribuição randômica, hipotetizando que a heterogeneidade ambiental e a distribuição espacial das poças têm influência sobre a estrutura das comunidades de anuros no sul do Brasil. Para o inventariamento das espécies foram empregadas diferentes técnicas (amostragens em sítios de reprodução, encontros ocasionais, armadilhas de interceptação e queda e consulta a coleções científicas). Para verificar a distribuição espacial, monitoramos 14 poças com heterogeneidade ambiental variável. Foram registradas 32 espécies de anfíbios no Parque e arredores, pertencentes a duas ordens: Anura, 30 espécies nativas e uma exótica e Gymnophiona, uma espécie. A análise de similaridade entre as localidades de Florestas Estacionais apresentou a formação de três grupos com 45% de similaridade entre eles: o primeiro grupo composto pelas localidades do sudeste e centro-oeste, o segundo grupo composto pelas localidades do sul e o terceiro grupo pelas localidades da porção de transição com a Floresta Atlântica sensu stricto. A formação do segundo grupo corrobora a proposta de uma nova unidade fitogeográfica, conhecida como Região das Florestas Tropicais Sazonais . Foram registradas 15 espécies de anuros nas poças, e sua distribuição foi claramente não randômica, corroborando a nossa hipótese de que a composição das espécies é influenciada pela heterogeneidade ambiental. As principais variáveis que estão correlacionadas com a estruturação das poças são: a área, a profundidade, o hidroperíodo, a porcentagem de cobertura vegetal no espelho d água e a distância que se encontravam em relação à borda mais próxima do Parque. A estrutura das comunidades de anuros não foi influenciada pela distribuição espacial das poças. Esse resultado indica que as poças estudadas foram independentes quanto à composição da anurofauna. Os resultados do presente estudo demonstraram que a heterogeneidade dos corpos d água é uma forte reguladora da estrutura de comunidades de anfíbios anuros e essa informação tem implicações para estratégias de conservação da anurofauna Neotropical Austral.

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At the intersection of geography and public health, the field of spatial epidemiology seeks to use the tools of geospatial analysis to answer questions about disease. In this work we explore two areas: the use of geostatistical modeling as an extension of niche modeling, and the use of mobility metrics to augment modeling for epidemic responses. Niche modeling refers to the practice of using statistical methods to relate the underlying spatially distributed environmental variables to an outcome, typically presence or absence of a species. Such work is common in disease ecology, and often focuses on exploring the range of a disease vector or pathogen. The technique also allows one to explore the importance of each underlying regressor, and the effect it has on the outcome. We demonstrate that this concept can be extended, through geostatistical modeling, to explore non-logistic phenomena such as incidence. When combined with weather forecasts, such efforts can even predict incidence of an upcoming season, allowing us to estimate the total number of expected cases, and where we would expect to find them. We demonstrate this in Chapter 2, by forecasting the incidence of melioidosis in Australia given weather forecasts a year prior. We also evaluate the efficacy of this technique and explore the impact of environmental variables such as elevation on melioidosis. But these techniques are not limited to free-living and vector-borne pathogens. We theorize that they can also be applied to diseases that spread exclusively by person-to-person contact. Exploring this allows us to find areas of underreporting, as well as areas with unusual local forcing which might merit further investigation by the health department. We also explore this in Chapter 4, by relating the incidence of hepatitis C in rural Virginia to demographic data. The West African Ebola Outbreak of 2014 demonstrated the need to include mobility in predictive disease modeling. One can no longer assume that neglected tropical diseases will remain contained and immobile, and the assumption of random mixing across large areas is unwise. Our efforts with modeling mobility are twofold. In Chapter 3, we demonstrate the creation of mobility metrics from open source road and river network data. We then demonstrate the usefulness of such data in a meta-population patch model meant to forecast the spread of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In Chapter 4, we also demonstrate that mobility data can be used to strengthen outbreak detection via hotspot analysis, and to augment incidence models by factoring in the incidence rates of neighboring areas. These efforts will allow health departments to more accurately forecast incidence, and more readily identify disease hotspots of atypical size and shape. / Doctor of Philosophy / The focus of this work is called “spatial epidemiology”, which combines geography with public health, to answer the where, and why, of disease. This is a growing field, and you’ve likely seen it in the news and media. Have you ever seen a map of the United States turning red in some virus disaster movie? The real thing looks a lot like that. After the Ebola outbreak of 2014, public health agencies wanted to know where the next one might hit. Now that there is another outbreak, we need to ask where and how will it spread? What areas are hardest hit, and how bad is it going to get? We can answer all these questions with spatial epidemiology. Our work adds to two aspects of spatial epidemiology: niche modeling, and mobility. We use niche modeling to determine where we could find certain diseases, usually those that are spread by insects or animals. Consider Lyme disease, you get it from the bite of a tick, and the tick gets it from a white-footed mouse. But both the mice and ticks only live in certain parts of the country. With niche modeling we can determine where those are, and we can also guess at what makes those areas attractive to the mice and ticks. Is it winter harshness, summer temperatures, rainfall, and/or elevation? Is it something else? In Chapter 2, we show that you can extend this idea. Instead of just looking at where the disease is, what if we could guess how many people will get infected? What if we could do so, a year in advance? We show that this can be done, but we need a good idea of what the weather will be like next year. In Chapter 4, we show that you can do the same thing with hepatitis C. Instead of Lyme’s ticks and mice, hepatitis C depends on drug-use, unregulated tattooing, and unsafe sex. And like with Lyme, these things are only found in certain places. Instead of temperature or rainfall, we now need to find areas with drug-problems and poverty. But we can get an idea of this from the Census Bureau, and we can make a map of hepatitis C as easily as we did for Lyme. But hepatitis C spreads person-to-person. So, we need some idea of how people move around the area. This is where mobility comes in. Mobility is important for most public health work, from detecting outbreaks to estimating where the disease will spread next. In Chapter 3, we show how one could create a mobility model for a rural area where few maps exist. We also show how to use that model to guess where the next cases of Ebola will show up. In Chapter 4, we show how you could use mobility to improve outbreak and hotspot detection. We also show how it’s used to help estimate the number of cases in an area. Because that number depends on how many cases are imported from the surrounding areas. And the only way to estimate that is with mobility.

La thèse étudie la dynamique et la persistance de l’inflation dans les pays en développement, particulièrement ceux des pays de la Zone UEMOA, en mettant en exergue les spécificités de ces économies. Le premier chapitre, consacré à l’évaluation de la persistance, révèle que le degré de persistance de l'inflation est faible dans ces pays, ce qui constitue un atout pour les autorités monétaires. Dans le chapitre 2, il a été défini un cadre théorique plus approprié à l’analyse de la persistance de l’inflation dans les pays de la sous-région. L’approche a permis de montrer que le degré de persistance de l’inflation dans ces pays ne dépendait pas uniquement des politiques monétaire et de change, mais aussi négativement du poids du secteur vivrier local dans l’économie. Dans le chapitre 3, la thèse analyse les écarts d’inflation dans les pays membres de l’UEMOA, en examinant la β-convergence des différentiels d'inflation. Les estimations révèlent que, d’une part, les écarts d’inflation se sont fortement réduits à l’intérieur de l'Union et que, d’autre part, ils restent fortement persistants avec la zone Euro. Le chapitre 4 est consacré à l’évaluation du rôle des différents facteurs et utilise ensuite une spécification spatiale en panel, pour tester les effets de contagion entre pays. Les estimations indiquent une prédominance des facteurs globaux et des effets de contagion entre pays dont l'ampleur dépend du poids des exportations de chaque pays vers les autres pays de la sous région. / This thesis examines the inflation dynamics and persistence in developing countries, especially in the UEMOA zone, highlighting the specificities of these economies. The first chapter, reveals that the inflation persistence degree, in these countries, is low which represents an asset to the monetary authorities. In Chapter 2, it was defined a more appropriate theoretical framework to analyze the inflation persistence in the countries of the sub-region. The approach allowed to demonstrate that the inflation persistence degree in these countries is not only dependent on monetary and exchange rate policies, but also negatively to the weight of local food sector in the economy. Chapter 3, analyzes the inflation differentials in the UEMOA member countries, by examining the β - convergence of inflation differentials. Estimations show that the inflation differentials are greatly reduced within the Union and they are highly persistent with the Euro zone. Chapter 4, is devoted to assessing the role of various factors and then uses a spatial panel specification to test the spillover effect between countries. Estimations indicate a predominance of global factors and contagion between countries whose magnitude depends on the weight of exports to other countries in the sub-region.

區域發展差異現象一直以來為國家政策所關注，而近年來台灣地區失業率有逐漸上升的趨勢，各縣市之表現亦大相逕庭，顯示各地區存在失業差異現象。過去研究較少以空間觀點觀察失業相關議題，此外，關於區域差異因素對失業率之影響鮮少納入政府規劃因素。因此，本研究以空間自相關分析方法檢測失業是否具有空間相關性及聚集性，並應用長期追蹤資料（panel data）迴歸模型，以人口、產業、所得、都市化程度及政府規劃因素，分析台灣22縣市1988至2008近二十年來各區域差異因素對失業率之影響，藉由實證結果提出相關都市及產業政策之建議。實證結果發現，台灣失業分佈具有一定程度的空間相關性，且高低失業率在各縣市間亦有聚集現象。再者，依固定效果模型實證結果發現人口數、工業及服務業就業者百分比、都市化程度、工業區面積百分比與失業率間呈現顯著正向關係；經濟發展支出百分比與失業率呈現顯著負向關係；區域固定效果，即排除自變數影響下，各縣市本身區域特質對失業率之影響，結果顯示台北縣及桃園縣之係數為負向，南投縣、嘉義縣、台東縣與花蓮縣之係數為正向；時間固定效果方面，大部分年度皆具顯著性，且係數有由負轉正之趨勢，代表特定時間衝擊會對失業率造成影響。 / Differences in regional development have been a focus on national policies. Recently, there is a increasing trend in the unemployment rate in Taiwan, and it also differs from cities and counties, indicating there exists differences in regional unemployment. Previous research rarely combined unemployment issues with spatial perspective. In addition, the effect of regional discrepant factors on the unemployment rate rarely take government planning factors into account. Therefore, this study uses spatial autocorrelation analysis to detect whether unemployment has spatial correlation and aggregation, and applies panel data regression model with population, industry, income, the degree of urbanization, and government planning factors to analyze the effect of regional discrepant factors on the unemployment rate in Taiwan's 22 cities and counties from 1988 to 2008. According to the empirical results, we come up with some urban and industrial policy proposals. Empirical results indicate that the distribution of unemployment in Taiwan has a certain degree of spatial correlation, and high or low unemployment rate also has aggregation among cities and counties. Furthermore, according to the results of the fixed effects model, population, the percentage of industrial and service sector employment, the degree of urbanization, and the percentage of industrial area show a significant positive relationship with unemployment rate. The percentage of expenditures for economic development shows a significant negative relationship with unemployment rate. Region-specific fixed effect, which exclude the influence of independent variables, is the effect of regional characteristics of counties and cities on the unemployment rate. This result shows the coefficient of Taipei County and Taoyuan County is negative, and the coefficient of Nantou County, Chiayi County, Taitung County and Hualien County is positive. As for time-specific fixed effect, almost all years are significant, and the coefficient has the trend from negative to positive, indicating that a particular time impact will affect the unemployment rate.

Η παρούσα έρευνα εντάσσεται στο πλαίσιο εκπόνησης διδακτορικής διατριβής στο Εργαστήριο του Τμήματος Αρχιτεκτόνων Μηχανικών του Πανεπιστημίου Πατρών. Η χαρτογράφηση της εγκληματικότητας (Crime Mapping) είναι η διαδικασία χρήσης της τεχνολογίας των Γεωγραφικών Συστημάτων Πληροφοριών και της εφαρμογής μεθόδων και τεχνικών της Χωρικής Ανάλυσης και της Χαρτογραφίας για την μελέτη και ανάλυση εγκληματικών συμβάντων. Ένα μεγάλο σύνολο ανθρωπίνων δραστηριοτήτων αναπτύσσεται, παρατηρείται και καταγράφεται στους αστικούς χώρους. Η επίδραση που ασκεί ο χώρος στην ανθρώπινη συμπεριφορά αλλά και η επίδραση της ανθρώπινης συμπεριφοράς που ασκείται πάνω στον χώρο είναι μια σχέση αμφίδρομη και αποτελεί σημαντικό στοιχείο για το σχεδιασμό. Συνεπώς, η δομή αυτή καθ’ αυτή των πόλεων, οι ήδη διαμορφωμένοι δημόσιοι αστικοί χώροι και οι κοινωνικό-οικονομικές αλλαγές που συντελούνται, συνιστούν μια πρόκληση για τους σύγχρονους σχεδιαστές του χώρου αυτού. Η έρευνα αφορά τη μελέτη της χωρικής κατανομής εγκλημάτων ιδιοκτησίας (απόπειρες, κλοπές, διαρρήξεις, ληστείες) στον αστικό ιστό της πόλης σε σχέση με χωρικά χαρακτηριστικά και κυρίως με πολεοδομικές παραμέτρους, ενώ παράλληλα εστιάζει με τρόπο ώστε να είναι δυνατή η εφαρμογή και ενσωμάτωση πορισμάτων της εγκληματολογίας στην διαδικασία του πολεοδομικού σχεδιασμού και γενικότερα του σχεδιασμού του χώρου. Ολοκληρώνεται, με συστηματική μελέτη περίπτωσης, μέσω αναλυτικής στατιστικής ανάλυσης και ανάλυσης γεωστατιστικής σχετικών δεδομένων που αφορούν το Σχέδιο Πόλεως Πατρών και τη δημιουργία γεωσυνόλων και θεματικών χαρτών που απεικονίζουν τη χωρική κατανομή του φαινομένου. Για την ανάλυση των χαρακτηριστικών της μελέτης περίπτωσης χρησιμοποιούνται χωρικές βάσεις δεδομένων με στοιχεία που η Γενική Αστυνομική Διεύθυνση Περιφέρειας Δυτικής Ελλάδος διέθεσε για την εκπόνηση της εργασίας: 4.770 απογραφικά δελτία εγκληματικών συμβάντων (εγκλήματα ιδιοκτησίας) που αφορούν το σύνολο τεσσάρων ετών από το 2007 έως και το 2010. Η εκπόνηση της έρευνας χρηματοδοτήθηκε από το Επιχειρησιακό Πρόγραμμα Εκπαίδευση και Δια Βίου Μάθηση, Ηράκλειτος ΙΙ, Υπουργείο Παιδείας και Θρησκευμάτων, ΕΣΠΑ 2007 – 2013, Ευρωπαϊκό Κοινωνικό Ταμείο. / This thesis has been elaborated in the Laboratory of Urban and Regional Planning, Department of Architecture, University of Patras. Crime Mapping is the process of using GIS technology and the implementation of Spatial Analysis and Mapping methods for studying and analysis of criminal incidents. In recent years, the rapid evolution of GIS technology and the availability of digital spatial data have strengthened the significant role of spatial analysis and GIS in crime analysis. A great deal of human activity is developed, observed and recorded in urban areas. The human impact is implemented on the urban areas as well as the urban areas have an impact on human behavior, setting a correlation that is an important design/planning characteristic. Consequently, the structure of modern cities, the existing urban public spaces along with the socioeconomic changes that happen constitute a challenge for contemporary designers and planners. The research is based on the study of spatial criminal distribution of property crimes (attempts, thefts, burglaries, robberies) in the urban web of a city, in terms of spatial characteristics and urban planning parameters while it focuses on criminology findings so as they can be incorporated and applied in urban planning in order to design and identify strategic orientations and create safer urban areas. It concludes with a systematic case study through an analytical statistical and geostatistical analysis of relevant data concerning the Master Plan of city of Patras and the development of geosets and thematic maps depicting the spatial distribution of the phenomenon. For that purpose, the Central Police Department of Patras offered to the university Laboratory all census forms of criminal acts and events (property crimes): 4.770 reports that took place at the city of Patras (Greece) during the years 2007 – 2010. This research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund – ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program “Education and Lifelong Learning” of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program: Heracleitus II.