Civil wars, insecurity, and ethnic disputes have imposed a high human and economic toll in Africa. In this dissertation, I examine the destructive impacts of war on agricultural productivity growth across the continent. Poor agricultural sector performance is more likely to be present around or during times of conflict. Using a panel of 51 countries from 1962-2009 I find that war impedes agricultural productivity growth. But a decline in productivity growth is not associated with the onset of civil war. Results show that low per capita income, stagnant economic growth, a large population, and lack of political freedom correspond to higher incidence of war, while conflict and lack of rainfall are associated with low agricultural productivity growth. I find that armed conflict reduces agricultural productivity growth by 0.76 percent per year and a major armed conflict reduces TFP growth by 1.16 percent. The incidence of a major armed conflict is associated with an efficiency decline in the year by 1.24 percent, substantial setback, for more than three-quarters of countries. This dissertation extends the discussion from productivity and efficiency analysis to the inclusion of the spatial dimension by applying exploratory and confirmatory spatial data analysis and capitalizing on successful spatial techniques and analytical tools proven in geospatial science. The exploratory spatial data analysis provides evidence of spatial autocorrelation in agricultural TFP growth rates in Africa. The results of hot spot analysis reveal that Algeria, Tunisia, Libya in the northern region and Nigeria and Benin in the western region constitute hot spots of agricultural performance and the cold spot, which includes areas of meager productivity, Rwanda and Burundi in central Africa. Africa suffers substantial losses in agricultural productivity when certain countries experience major armed conflict. The dissertation shows that a war may reduce productivity in a given country, but its real effects are larger because it impacts surrounding countries. Overall African TFP declined by 0.0572 percent per year as a result of conflict in Sudan. A war in the Democratic Republic of Congo caused African TFP growth to decline by 0.0285 percent per year.

Academics have majorly explored the positive and negative economic spillover and linkages effects of FDI on economic growth, local wages, productivity and technological knowledge. Nonetheless, alternative benefits induced by FDI on social development have been neglected to be explored in-depth, constraining scholarly contributions to welfare economics. Although preceding works have studied social development factors, they traditionally have been addressed as either positive, negative or neutral in different pockets of academic literature. Moreover, none of them offers a robust empirical/structural framework linking FDI and social development. Panel data figures of MNEs classified as FDI recipients in the Republic of Panama are employed in proposing an empirical/structural framework explanatory of the bidirectional association and causal mechanisms between FDI and social development, using the Social Progress Index as a proxy, moderated by proxy variables of productive linkages and household income. A lop-sided circle, negatively inclined on the association flowing from social development to FDI, is suggested to exist. A ‘weak’ positive effect of FDI on social development is found, supported by a locked-in stable loop of FDI yearly feeding on MNEs profit’s reinvestments. Social development is also found to be in a locked-in stable loop, directly exerting a ‘strongly negative’ impact on FDI, which suggests being a constraining determinant for the country to attract ‘green field’ FDI. The empirical/structural framework herein proposed aims to guide future academic research in welfare economics and also serve policymakers in Panama for understanding and structuring national policies to unlock the self-reinforcing path dependency mechanisms preventing social development potential from being unleashed.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / ENGLISH SUMMARY: With diminishing sources of capital over the past two decades, developing countries have increasingly regarded the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) as their main source of capital for development. In response to this, countries have also liberalised their policies, making their investment climate friendlier to FDI. This has been accompanied by increased competition amongst such countries to attract FDI, resulting in higher investment incentive packages offered by host governments to potential investors. This study aims to analyse the significance of host country incentives in attracting FDI, and consider whether or not these generous incentives benefit only the foreign investors, without any positive spillovers and linkages being created within the domestic economy, as this is usually given as the strongest motivation for offering these generous incentives. The research has used case studies of three diverse countries to compare and contrast their approach to incentive policies: • Lesotho, where no incentives are offered specifically to foreign investors • Namibia, with its export processing zones (EPZ) and • South Africa, which offers industry-specific incentives. The analysis is undertaken on aggregate FDI inflows to these three countries for the period 1998 to 2004. These are then compared to other selected countries from Africa. A further analysis of relative performance of FDI to gross fixed capital formation and GDP has also been undertaken for the same period. A separate analysis of the flow of FDI to Namibia four years before and after the introduction of the EPZ regime is also undertaken, and the results are compared with those of Lesotho and South Africa during the same period. It can be concluded that fiscal incentives have not had a significant impact on aggregate FDI inflow into Namibia, but that industry specific incentives such as those used in South Africa have had a much better impact. The results also show that there has been little evidence that FDI has created positive spillovers and linkages in these economies and therefore that the use of generous incentives may have benefited foreign investors more and accrued costs for the host governments. The study has also shown that, despite the absence of essential determinants of FDI in countries such as Angola i.e. adequate infrastructure, economic stability and good governance, FDI in Africa has been mainly resource seeking; concentrated on resource and in particular petroleum rich countries such as Nigeria, Angola and Equatorial Guinea. This form of FDI creates little or no linkages with the rest of the economy and therefore contributes which means that little contribution is being made to the broader development of the economy of the continent.

We investigate the practical use of Taylor-type rules in Trinidad and Tobago, which is in the process of implementing market based monetary policy and seeks to implement flexible inflation targeting in the presence of a managed exchange rate. This is motivated by the idea that normative Taylor rules can be shaped by the practical experience of developing countries. We find that the inflation – exchange rate nexus is strong, hence the country may be unwilling to allow the exchange rate to float freely. We contend that despite weak market development the Taylor rule can still be applied as the central bank is able to use moral suasion to achieve full pass through of the policy rate to the market rate. Our evidence rejects Galí and Monacelli’s (2005) argument that the optimal monetary policy rule for the open economy is isomorphic for a closed economy. Rather, our evidence suggests that the rule for the open economy allows for lower variability when the rule is augmented by the real exchange rate as in Taylor (2001). We also reject Galí and Monacelli’s (2005) hypothesis that domestic inflation is optimal for inclusion in the Taylor-type rule. Instead we find that core CPI inflation leads to lower variability. Additionally, our evidence suggests that the monetary rule, when applied to Trinidad and Tobago, is accommodating to the US Federal Reserve rate. Further, we expand the work of Martin and Milas (2010) which considered the pass through of the policy rate to the interbank rate in the presence of risk and liquidity. By extending the transmission to the market lending rate, we are able to go beyond those disruptive factors by considering excess liquidity and spillovers of international economic disturbances. We found that these shocks are significant for Trinidad and Tobago, but it is not significant enough to disrupt the pass through. As a result, full pass through was robust to the presence of these disruptive factors.

This diploma thesis is devoted to the linkages among stock, bond and foreign exchange markets in the Czech Republic, Austria, Germany and Poland during the period from the beginning of the year 2007 to the end of the year 2014. In order to complexly describe the interconnections among the markets, we utilized two kinds of spillover indices (from the generalized and structural VAR model), dynamic correlation coefficients obtained from the multivariate GARCH model and contemporaneous coefficients from the structural VAR model that was identified through heteroskedasticity in structural shocks. These methods enabled us to describe the linkages among the markets from different angles, to capture their time evolution and to obtain a notion about the transmission mechanism among these markets in Central Europe. The results, inter alia, indicate an intensifying interconnection among the markets during crisis periods, lowering impact of stock markets, increasing influence of bonds and a dominant role of German bonds and Austrian stocks. At the same time, we were able to capture the influence of the European sovereign debt crisis on the spillovers and on the intensity of linkages among the markets. We showed that the intensity of linkages among bond markets relented, probably as a result of higher emphasis on the...

Cette thèse est constituée de quatre articles. Le premier article avec Johan Hombert montre que lorsque les relations bancaires sont affectées, cela réduit le nombre d'entreprises innovantes et conduit également à une hausse de la mobilité géographique des inventeurs, qui quittent les états où les relations bancaires sont dégradées. Le second article est un travail avec Claire Célerier mettant en avant le rôle de l'offre dans le phénomène de non bancarisation des populations pauvres aux Etats-Unis. Le troisième article étudie les externalités d'innovation et montre que lorsque certaines entreprises innovent moins les autres entreprises locales innovent moins en réponse. Cet effet décroit rapidement avec la distance. Le quatrième article, en collaboration avec Olivier Dessaint, montre que les managers répondent systématiquement à des chocs de liquidité proches d'eux en augmentant temporairement leur trésorier. / This dissertation is made of four distinct chapters. The first chapter with Johan Hombert shows that when lending relationships are hurt, it reduces the number of innovative firms and foster inventor mobility who move out of geographical areas where lending relationships are hurt. The second chapter presents a work with Claire Célerier and shows that supply-side factors account for a large part of the unbanked household phenomenon in the US. The third chapter studies spillovers of innovation and shows that when some firms innovate less other firms in the same city innovate less in response and this effect declines sharply with distance. The fourth chapter with Olivier Dessaint presents evidence that managers systematically respond to near-miss liquidity shocks by temporarily increasing the amount of corporate cash holdings.

Über die letzten zwölf Jahre sind globale Indikatoren für Demokratie- und Freiheitsrechte kontinuierlich gesunken. Demokratie ist eine wichtige Triebkraft für wirtschaftliche Entwicklung, daher folgen aus diesem Vertrauensverlust auch Sorgen über die Zukunft des ökonomischen Wohlstandes. Diese Dissertation besteht aus drei Essays und untersucht mögliche Reformen für effektivere politische Gestaltungsmöglichkeiten in demokratischen Systemen: Dezentralisierung und Privatisierung. Das erste Essay überprüft, ob durch Dezentralisierung der öffentlichen Arbeitsvermittlung mehr Arbeitslose in freie Stellen vermittelt werden können. Dafür untersuche ich die Kommunalisierung deutscher Jobcenter im Jahr 2012. Dabei stelle ich fest, dass sich durch Dezentralisierung die Neuanstellung von Arbeitslosen um rund 10% verringern. Es zeigt sich, dass dezentralisierte Arbeitsvermittlungen vermehrt öffentlich geförderte Arbeitsbeschaffungsmaßnahmen nutzen. Das zweite Essay beschäftigt sich mit finanzpolitischen Wechselwirkungen zwischen Gemeinden in Kolumbien, wo die Verantwortlichkeit für einen großen Teil des Staatsbudgets an die kommunale Regierungsebene übertragen wurde. Es ergeben sich starke räumliche Autokorrelationen im lokalen Ausgabeverhalten. Allerdings zeigt sich durch einen Instrumentalvariablenansatz, dass es keine kausalen fiskalischen Interaktionseffekte zwischen den Gemeinden gibt. Das dritte Essay analysiert, ob Regierungen ökonomischen Effizienzüberlegungen folgen, wenn sie entscheiden, welche staatlichen Firmen für eine Privatisierung ausgewählt werden. Basierend auf der Massenprivatisierung in Folge des Falls der Berliner Mauer untersuche ich Firmendaten, welche mehr als 6.000 Privatisierungs- und Liquidationsentscheidungen umfassen. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass Privatisierungsentscheidungen weniger politisch, sondern stärker ökonomisch orientiert sind, als dies durch bisherige Studien bekannt ist. / Global indicators of democracy and civil liberties have continually decreased over the past twelve years. Scholars have identified weak public policy-making as an origin for low levels of trust in democratic governance. In three essays, this dissertation studies two reform options to improve policy-making, namely decentralization and privatization. The first essay examines whether the decentralization of public employment services (PES) increases job placements among the unemployed. Using a difference-in-differences design, I exploit unique within-country variation in decentralization provided by the partial devolution of German job centers in 2012. I find that de-centralization reduces job placements by approximately 10% while expanding the use of inefficient public job creation schemes. Essay two explores fiscal interactions in Colombia, a developing country which shifted the responsibility for a large share of public spending from the central to local governments. I find evidence of strong spatial autocorrelation of local public spending. However, an instrumental variable approach reveals that there are no significant causal fiscal interaction effects between municipalities. The third essay studies whether governments incorporate economic efficiency considerations when choosing which firms they select for privatization. Analyzing mass privatizations following the Fall of the Berlin Wall in Germany, I employ previously unavailable firm data on more than 6,000 privatization and liquidation decisions. The analysis suggests that privatization decisions are less politicized and more efficiency-oriented than found in previous studies.

The thesis investigates how FDI intra-industry spillovers are affected by MNE ownership modes and sub-national locations. A conceptual framework is developed which utilises IB theories to propose how MNE ownership modes and sub-national locations are likely to matter for FDI spillovers. The research propositions are explored quantitatively using an unbalanced firm-level panel dataset of 1624 Indian manufacturing firms (1991-2008) with 5203 firm-year observations. The model estimation is carried out in STATA 13.0 in two stages; firstly, by using semi-parametric (Levinsohn-Petrin) method to derive the dependent variable (TFP of domestic firms); and secondly, by using fixed effects model estimated in first-differences to relate TFP of domestic firms' with different measures of foreign presence. Results from the first model reveal that WOSs and MAJVs have positive spillover effects whereas MIJVs have negative spillover effects in the Indian manufacturing sector. The second model finds that the net spillover effect in non-metropolitan regions is higher than in metropolitan regions. The thesis discusses the possible major policy implications of the results and considers possible reasons for the differences in the spillovers for different ownership modes and sub-national locations.

本文引援Peretto(1998b)的研發模型，假設人口數固定的情況下，進一步延伸設定知識外溢性分別處於研發、生產技術，探討不同技術設定對於經濟成長率及廠商家數的影響，亦即經濟成長率及市場競爭程度間的關連性。 在本文的模型內，可同時決定經濟成長率與廠商家數。模型顯示：（1）當生產與研發技術皆具有外溢性時，其對應的經濟成長率高於其他情況，而廠商家數與只有研發技術具外溢性時相同，（2）生產或研發分別具有外溢性時，經濟成長率與廠商家數相對於其他情況而言，皆須視外生參數而定，（3）生產與研發技術皆不具外溢性時，其對應的經濟成長率低於其他情況，而廠商家數則與只有生產技術具外溢性時相同。 就單一產業而言，外生參數變動導致廠商家數與經濟成長之間具有抵換關係，亦即市場競爭程度與成長率間具抵換關係。若從跨產業的角度來分析，當經濟體系內存在許多不同技術型態的產業時，其經濟成長背後的動力亦會隨著技術型態的相對比重而有所影響。

The three essays in this dissertation progressively answer the following questions: (a) How important are constraints? (b) Who benefits from removing constraints? (c) When does a constraint for a single market predominantly affect closely related markets? These questions are applied in the context of time, weather, and minimum wage constraints, respectively. The first essay demonstrates that constraints matter. A data envelopment analysis capacity utilization methodology is used to measure impacts on sales from a sequential relaxation of the time and income constraints. Using a subsample bootstrap to estimate confidence intervals, results show that time matters more than income, particularly in fall and winter when other activities compete for gardening time. The second essay shows that the poor are least likely to gain from the relaxation of non-income constraints. A theory of demand is developed in which consumers face multiple constraints. Then, a structural model is used to econometrically estimate the effect of global warming on demand, using nursery data on flowering plants. The model shows that there exists a tipping point around 64 degrees Fahrenheit, above which demand ceases to be climate-constrained. The third essay shows that a constraint in a single market can sometimes have more profound consequences on other, more distantly related markets. First, it is proven that if a series of markets are structured like a chain-- where only own and neighboring prices matter--then a shock to one market decreases with distance. The case of minimum wages in Oregon is investigated using a large panel dataset for all workers in Oregon using a first difference econometric model. It is determined that the ripple effects of the minimum have even larger effects on higher-wage earners, disconfirming the chain pattern. High substitutions between low and high wage groups may explain the pattern. Altogether the essays further the understanding of constraints to demonstrate that (a) constraints significantly affect economic outcomes, (b) if one constraint is lifted, those individuals alternately-constrained are left behind from any benefits, and (c) constraints to a single market may have unintended and sometimes larger effects on 'farther' markets. / Graduation date: 2012