Measurement of volatility spillovers and asymmetric connectedness on commodity and equity markets Tereza Malířová Master's Thesis, IES FSV UK, July 2017 We study volatility spillovers among commodity and equity markets by employing a recently developed approach based on realized measures and forecast error variance decomposition invariant to the variable ordering from vector-autoregressions. This enables us to measure total, directional and net volatility spillovers as well as the asymmetry of responses to positive and negative shocks. We exploit high-frequency data on the prices of Crude oil, Corn, Cotton and Gold futures, and the S&P 500 Index and use a sample which spans from January 2002 to December 2015 to cover the entire period around the global financial crisis of 2008. Our empirical analysis reveals that on average, the volatility shocks related to other markets account for around one fifth of the volatility forecast error variance. We find that shocks to the stock markets play the most important role as the S&P 500 Index dominates all commodities in terms of general volatility spillover transmission. Our results further suggest that volatility spillovers across the analyzed assets were rather limited before the global financial crisis, which then boosted the connectedness between commodity and stock...

La place des activités de recherche scientifique dans les dynamiques économiques, et en particulier leurs liens avec les entreprises et les territoires, ont fait l’objet de nombreuses études depuis les années 1990, et ont donné lieu à une littérature abondante. Après un travail de synthèse et de mise en perspective de l’ensemble de ces travaux, cette thèse se propose de contribuer à l’analyse du rôle de la recherche dans le développement économique des territoires, en se focalisant sur le territoire local. Notre réflexion se fonde sur un double cas d’étude, à la fois thématique et géographique : le cas des sciences de la mer, avec comme support les territoires de Brest et de la Bretagne occidentale (France). Trois types de méthodes sont mis en oeuvre. Tout d’abord, afin de caractériser le champ de la recherche marine, la production scientifique dans ce domaine est analysée à l’échelle mondiale. Cette étape met en évidence l’inscription de ce champ dans des réalités institutionnelles et territoriales : celles d’ensembles scientifiques localisés, voire dans certains cas de systèmes locaux de recherche. Ensuite, les retombées économiques liées à la dépense localisée de l’activité de recherche sont estimées, à l’aide principalement d’une modélisation entrées-sorties adaptée aux échelles régionales et locales. Si les résultats révèlent le caractère relativement limité de ces retombées dans notre cas d’étude, ils font aussi apparaître le potentiel significatif de l’activité de recherche en termes de multiplicateurs de production, de valeur ajoutée et d’emploi. Enfin, sont appréhendés les effets de la recherche sur les acteurs de l’offre, soit des effets de type « transferts de connaissance ». Une enquête comparative est menée sur deux territoires : Brest et Bergen (Norvège). Plusieurs facteurs, à la fois endogènes et exogènes aux institutions scientifiques, apparaissent déterminants dans le niveau et la qualité de ces transferts au sens large : en particulier le degré d’adéquation entre les recherches menées et les activités économiques présentes localement. Une forte hétérogénéité dans la diffusion de ces effets, à la fois disciplinaire, sectorielle et spatiale est également observée. L’ensemble des résultats apporte un éclairage singulier et novateur sur l’intégration potentielle de l’activité de recherche dans une stratégie de développement territorial. / The place of scientific research activities in the economic dynamics, especially their links with enterprises and territories have been studied largely since the 1990s, and have produced extensive literature. After first synthesizing and putting those studies into perspective, this thesis intends to contribute to the analysis of the role of this research in the economic development of territories, focusing on the local territory. Our reflexion is based on a double case study, both thematic and geographical: the field of marine sciences, with the territories of Brest and Western Brittany (France) as a baseline case. Three types of methods are implemented. First, to characterize the field of marine research, scientific production in that field is analyzed on a global scale. This step highlights the inclusion of this field in the institutional and territorial realities: locally based scientific entities, and even in some cases whole local research systems. Then, the economic benefits related to the localized spending of the research activity are estimated, mainly using an input-output modeling adapted to the regional and local scales. If the results do reveal the relatively limited nature of these benefits in our case study, they also reveal the good potential of the research activity in terms of outputs multipliers, added value and employment. Finally, the impacts of research on supply actors are grasped, namely "knowledge transfer" types of effects. A comparative survey is conducted on two territories: Brest and Bergen (Norway). Several factors, both internal and external to scientific institutions, appear to be decisive in the level and quality of such transfers at large: more specifically, the extent to which the research conducted locally and the locally existing economic activities match. A strong heterogeneity in the distribution of those effects – disciplinary, sectorial and spatial – can also be observed. Overall, the results shed singular and innovative light on the potential integration of the research activity in a territorial development strategy.

My dissertation investigates the financial linkages and transmission of economic shocks between the US and the smallest emerging markets (frontier markets). The first chapter sets up an empirical model that examines the impact of US market returns and conditional volatility on the returns and conditional volatilities of twenty-one frontier markets. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood; utilizes the GARCH model of errors, and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. We find limited, but statistically significant exposure of Frontier markets to shocks from the US. Our results suggest that it is not the lagged US market returns that have impact; rather it is the expected US market returns that influence frontier market returns The second chapter sets up an empirical time-varying parameter (TVP) model to explore the time-variation in the impact of mean US returns on mean Frontier market returns. The model utilizes the Kalman filter algorithm as well as the GARCH model of errors and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. The TVP model detects statistically significant time-variation in the impact of US returns and low, but statistically and quantitatively important impact of US market conditional volatility. The third chapter studies the risk-return relationship in twenty Frontier country stock markets by setting up an international version of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model. The systematic risk in this model comes from covariance of Frontier market stock index returns with world returns. Both the systematic risk and risk premium are time-varying in our model. We also incorporate own country variances as additional determinants of Frontier country returns. Our results suggest statistically significant impact of both world and own country risk in explaining Frontier country returns. Time-variation in the world risk premium is also found to be statistically significant for most Frontier market returns. However, own country risk is found to be quantitatively more important.

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar como fatores territoriais influenciam a capacidade de inovação das empresas brasileiras. Em especial, analisa-se como os transbordamentos de conhecimentos, a aglomeração urbana e econômica, o capital humano e a estrutura produtiva local afetam o grau de novidade da inovação que é introduzida pelas empresas no Brasil. Diferencia-se o grau de novidade da inovação por empresas que não geraram inovações, empresas que introduziram inovações para a firma, para o mercado nacional e para o mundo. A discussão sobre o território e a inovação até a década de 90 esteve bastante concentrada nos países desenvolvidos. Entretanto, nas últimas décadas atenção também tem sido dada a países em desenvolvimento. No Brasil, os estudos sobre o tema têm sido direcionados a compreender como as atividades inovativas estão distribuídas nas regiões, sua heterogeneidade e quais fatores podem influenciar essa distribuição. No entanto, estudos que relacionem diretamente a inovação no nível da firma e a geografia ainda são escassos. É essa lacuna que o presente trabalho procura preencher, ao observar diretamente o efeito dos fatores sobre o grau de novidade da inovação que as empresas brasileiras introduzem, utilizando os microdados da PINTEC. Para isso, foi realizada a estimação de um modelo econométrico, baseado na Função de Produção do Conhecimento que permitiu avaliar a relação entre o grau de novidade da inovação e fatores selecionados em dois níveis, o da firma e o do território. Os resultados mostram que os fatores territoriais geram diferenciais inovativos as empresas, mesmo em países em desenvolvimento, como o Brasil, em que a maior parte da inovação gerada é nova para a firma. Em particular, a aglomeração econômica e o capital humano local apresentam um papel importante para se chegar à inovação de mais alto grau de novidade, como para o mundo. Ou seja, empresas localizadas em regiões mais aglomeradas economicamente e com maior participação da mão de obra empregada qualificada tendem a introduzir inovações com mais alto grau de novidade, especialmente inovações para o mercado nacional. Ao mesmo tempo, variáveis no nível da firma, como os gastos em atividades de inovação, o tamanho da firma e a sua produtividade, impactam positivamente a capacidade de inovação das empresas. Além disso, firmas que colaboram com outros agentes ou possuem capital estrangeiro tendem a introduzir inovações com mais ato grau de novidade. Por fim, o grau de novidade da inovação das empresas que recebem financiamento público como fonte de dispêndios inovativos tende a ser mais alto do que de empresas que não recebem financiamento público. / The aim of this study is to assess how territorial factors affect innovation of Brazilian firms. In particular, it analyses how knowledge spillovers, agglomeration, human capital, and the local productive structure affect the degree of novelty of innovation. The degree of novelty of innovation is distinguished by whether firms did not innovate and whether firms had been able to introduce innovations that were new for the firm, new for the domestic market and new to the world. Until the 1990s, debate on territory and innovation has been focused on developed countries. However, recently increasing attention has been given to developing countries. In Brazil, previous studies have been directed to understand how innovation is distributes among regions, their heterogeneity and which factors can affect their distribution. However, studies that directly relate firm-level innovations and geography are still scant. This work addresses this gap by applying a Knowledge Production Function (KPF) to examine how firm-level and regional-level factors affect the degree of novelty of innovation in Brazil, using PINTEC microdata. Results show that territorial factors play an important role on innovation, even in developing countries as Brazil, which innovations tend to be mostly new for the firm. This indicates that firms located in places with higher agglomeration of economic activities and higher concentration of human capital tend to introduce higher degree of novelty innovations, especially innovations as to the domestic market. That means that firms in economic clustered regions, and with higher share of qualified labor force are able to generate innovation with higher degree of novelty, as to the world. At the firm-level, R&D efforts, firms\' size and firms\' productivity are positively associated with the degree of novelty of innovations. In addition, firms that collaborate with partners or with foreign ownership tend to introduce innovation with higher degree of novelty. Finally, public finance for innovation is also a factor that stimulates firms to introduce innovations with higher degree of novelty, in comparison with no public finance.

This doctoral dissertation studies the effect of economic integration on the performance of firms. The ongoing process of global economic integration has been characterized by dismantling of trade barriers and openness to foreign direct investments (FDI). These changes have not only brought opportunities to firms in terms of market access and the possibility to learn about foreign technologies brought in by foreign counterparts. The new economic environment has also posed new challenges through a greater competitive pressure urging firms to continuously align their production patterns to more efficient business practices. The agility of firms to adjust to external shocks, and hence the potential of countries to benefit from economic integration, does presumably not only depend on the internal assets of firms but may also be influenced by government policies and national institutional settings. This conceptual background constitutes the storyline of the doctoral dissertation.<p><p>Chapter 1 of the dissertation is a step forward in understanding the externalities of foreign direct investments on the economic performance of domestic firms. During the late eighties and early nineties, Spain saw an upswing in foreign direct investments that placed the economic at the top of FDI recipients in Europe. To provide fresh insights into the firm-levels responses to FDI, Chapter 1 investigates the effects of foreign direct investment on the productivity of domestic firms within the same sector of activity as foreign firms, and whether FDI externalities differed depending on their level of technology. The empirical results show that foreign presence had an overall positive effect on the productivity growth of domestic firms. The gains were not, however, evenly distributed across firms. Firms closer to the frontier benefited more from FDI than firms far from the technology frontier. <p><p>A further integration of the world economy with new economic actors, like China and India, has highlighted the need for European firms to climb the quality ladder and shift towards high value added products and greater flexibility in delivering new products in order to survive new competitive threats. Chapter 2 is a theoretical and empirical examination of the role of innovation for the export activities of firms. The intuition is that firms through innovation enhance their access to foreign markets by improving cost competitiveness and the quality of products. The Chapter builds on previous literature to develop a trade model in which firms differ in their propensity to innovate and export based on their underlying productivity. The empirical results, in line with the theoretical model, suggest a positive effect of innovation on the probability of participation in export markets.<p><p>The innovative activities of firms may not only depend on their internal assets, but presumably also on their relations with other actors in the national innovation systems. To understand better the role of firms’ relations with the science sector, Chapter 3 turns to one of the major producers of knowledge –universities- and investigates the factors that contribute to the successful transfer of knowledge from universities to the market. The results from Chapter 3 show that universities with established technology transfer policies, procedures, and large and experienced technology transfer offices perform better. <p><p>Previous chapters demonstrate that innovation gives a competitive edge to firms exploring foreign markets. Chapter 4, which is joint work with economists from France’s central bank, investigates how credit market imperfections affect the expansion and survival of firms in foreign markets, which is essential for the design of policies stimulating aggregate trade and competitiveness. Chapter 4 develops a theoretical model to study the impact of credit constraints on the number of newly served export destinations by firms and their exits from the export market and tests it using French firm-level data. The results show that credit constraints negatively affect the number of newly created export relations and have a negative effect on the probability of exit from the export market.<p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The thesis investigates how FDI intra-industry spillovers are affected by MNE ownership modes and sub-national locations. A conceptual framework is developed which utilises IB theories to propose how MNE ownership modes and sub-national locations are likely to matter for FDI spillovers. The research propositions are explored quantitatively using an unbalanced firm-level panel dataset of 1624 Indian manufacturing firms (1991-2008) with 5203 firm-year observations. The model estimation is carried out in STATA 13.0 in two stages; firstly, by using semi-parametric (Levinsohn-Petrin) method to derive the dependent variable (TFP of domestic firms); and secondly, by using fixed effects model estimated in first-differences to relate TFP of domestic firms' with different measures of foreign presence. Results from the first model reveal that WOSs and MAJVs have positive spillover effects whereas MIJVs have negative spillover effects in the Indian manufacturing sector. The second model finds that the net spillover effect in non-metropolitan regions is higher than in metropolitan regions. The thesis discusses the possible major policy implications of the results and considers possible reasons for the differences in the spillovers for different ownership modes and sub-national locations. / PhD Studentship, University of Bradford

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This dissertation consists of three essays on the empirical analysis of economic growth and technology development. In particular, I consider spillover effects in different frameworks. The first chapter outlines the three topics involved and briefly discusses the motivations, methods as well as some conclusions in each of the following chapters. The second chapter considers the spillovers in economic growth and convergence. Spillovers are prevalent in nowadays' economy. I formally model the spillover effects as the interdependence of total factor productivity (TFP), and develop a model in which spillover effects of R&D through the channel of international trade make the TFPs correlated among countries. In this sense, I apply the thoughts of international trade to the economic growth framework. Empirically, I develop a three-stage generalized method of moment(GMM) to estimate the dynamic panel spatial error autoregressive model. Simulation results show that my estimator is consistent and efficient. Through counterfactual analysis, I find that there are positive spillovers through both geographic connection and trade connection. Such a positive spillover effect, however, slows down the convergence speed. Moreover, there were little spillovers in the early 1960s. Spillover effects become stronger overtime. The third chapter is about the determinants of technology development in China. What makes my paper different from others is that I take a full consideration of the spillover effects: provincial spillovers in Science and Technology (S&T) capital as well as S&T personnel, and international spillovers through trade and FDI. The most interesting point in my paper is that I consider the indirect effects of institutions on technology development. Marketization, measured by the share of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the economy, affects the production of technology through different channels at different stages. I use a semiparametric varying-coefficient model to account for the effects. In this paper, I find that provincial spillovers are mainly through the externalities of S&T capital stock while international spillovers occur through trade. Marketization affects the technology development through S&T capital, S&T capital spillovers and trade. Although a certain share of SOEs is necessary for technology production, the marketization process will promote the development of technology in China in the long run. The fourth chapter looks into the provincial technology spillovers from another aspect. Instead of the S&T endowment spillovers from the nearby provinces, I consider the technology transfer from the frontier province to the targeted province as well as the absorptive capacity of the targeted province itself. Two forms of technology transfer are analyzed: the technology distance due to the structural discrepancy in the patent portfolio and the technology gap because of the difference in the patent level. Through the empirical analysis, several factors contributing to patent growth, such as S&T investment, road density, international spillovers from imports and FDI, are identified. Moreover, I find that technology transfer due to the technology distance can stimulate patent growth. However, I fail to find robust evidence of technology transfer due to the technology gap, which implies that the provincial technology convergence may not exist in China. / Ph. D.

The aim of this thesis is to conduct a nuanced investigation of connectedness in the global futures market across time and market conditions through a Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR) model. Later, a linear regression is utilized to identify determinants of futures market connectedness across market conditions. The sample period consists of daily data from December 2017 to August 2023. Our dataset includes five uncertainties and 19 continuous futures contracts, making it the most comprehensive study of futures market connectedness after the Russian invasion of Ukraine to our knowledge.  The results highlight heterogeneous effects across time and market conditions for all assets, with the futures market connectedness increasing during times of uncertainty. US equity, German Equity, Japanese equity, British equity, gold, silver, USD and EUR are identified as net transmitters of spillovers, whereas the rest of the futures are identified as net receivers. These findings are interesting in the concept of theory as they highlight potential periods of flight-to-safety and safe haven properties for certain futures. When including uncertainties in the QVAR model, financial uncertainty is identified as the only net transmitter, whereas the other uncertainties are net receivers.  Drivers of futures market connectedness depend on market conditions and time, with energy uncertainty being significant for normal markets and the world equity index being significant for bearish markets in both the full sample and a Covid-19 subsample. For the full sample only, financialization is identified as a driver during bullish markets. More variables are significant for the Covid-19 subsample. The commodity index and US dollar index becomes significant in bearish markets and monetary uncertainty in bullish markets.  Our findings are relevant for both investors and policymakers. The results suggest that investors should monitor market conditions when investing in the futures market to suitably optimize, diversify, and hedge their portfolios. For policymakers, monitoring spillover from the futures market is important as it can impact the overall economy by using the industrial sector as a transmission channel. This can aid in early decision-making and minimize the impact of economic downturns. / Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist, eine nuancierte Untersuchung der Verbundenheit im globalen Terminmarkt über Zeit und Marktbedingungen durch ein Quantile Vector Autoregression (QVAR) Modell durchzuführen. Später benutzen wir eine lineare Regression, um Determinanten der Terminmarktverbundenheit unter verschiedene Marktbedingungen zu identifizieren. Der Zeitraum dieser Untersuchung besteht aus täglichen Daten von Dezember 2017 bis August 2023. Die Daten umfasst fünf Unsicherheitsmaße und 19 kontinuierliche Terminkontrakte, damit ist es nach unserem Wissen die umfassendste Untersuchung über die Verbundenheit des Terminmarkts nach der russischen Invasion die Ukraine.  Die Ergebnisse hervorheben heterogene Effekte über Zeit und Marktbedingungen für alle Variablen, wobei die Verbundenheit des Terminmarkts während unsicherer Perioden verstärkt ist. Der amerikanische Aktienindex, deutsche Aktienindex, japanische Aktienindex, britische Aktienindex, Gold, Silber, US-Dollar und Euro werden als Nettoübermittler von Spillovern identifiziert, während die andere Terminkontrakte als Nettoempfänger identifiziert werden. Die Ergebnisse sind interessant im Kontext der Theorie, da sie sowohl potenzielle Perioden von Flight-to-Safety als auch Safe Haven-Eigenschaften für die Terminkontrakte hinweisen. Bei der Einbeziehung von Unsicherheitsmaßen in das QVAR-Modell wird die finanzielle Unsicherheit als einziger Nettoübermittler identifiziert, während die anderen Unsicherheiten Nettoempfänger sind.  Die Determinanten der Verbundenheit an den Terminmarkt sind von Zeit und Marktbedingungen abhängig, wobei die Energieunsicherheit für normale Marktbedingungen und die Weltaktienindex für bärische Marktbedingungen während sowohl des ganzen Zeitraums als auch des Covid-19 Zeitraums signifikant ist. Finanzialisierung ist nur während des ganzen Zeitraums als Determinant für bullische Marktbedingungen signifikant. Im Covid-19 Zeitraum sind weitere Variablen signifikant. Der Rohstoffindex wird in bärische Marktbedingungen und die US-Dollar-Index wird in bullische Marktbedingungen signifikant.  Die Ergebnisse dieser Untersuchung sind sowohl für Investoren als auch für politische und finanzielle Entscheidungsträger relevant. Die Ergebnisse andeuten, dass Investoren die Marktbedingungen beobachten sollten, wenn sie in den Terminmarkt investieren, um ihre Portfolios zu optimieren, diversifizieren und abzusichern. Für politische und finanzielle Entscheidungsträger ist die Beobachtung von Spillover-Effekten vom Terminmarkt wichtig, da sie auf die Gesamtwirtschaft durch die Industriesektor auswirken können. Darum kann diese kontinuierliche Beobachtung zu früheren makroökonomischen Entscheidungen führen und damit ungünstige wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen minimieren.

隨著知識經濟時代以及全球化的來臨，各國都市面臨全球性的競爭壓力，都市內部業種轉變為以服務業為業種主流，其中的生產者服務業更是成長快速的新興產業，更是適應全球化發展策略的重要產業。因此了解其聚集的成因將更具有時代的意義。產業聚集於都市的現象，傳統聚集經濟多以規模經濟、地方化經濟、都市化經濟為其解釋。近來，由於知識經濟的重要性，衍生出以知識的創新效果以及外溢效果來解釋產業的聚集現象。本研究利用空間距離的影響性來估計產業內知識外溢效果，並利用產業投入產出關聯係數估計產業間知識外溢效果，並採用分量迴歸來進行實證分析，以利於更詳實的解釋各知識外溢效果在於不同公司規模下的影響性。 研究結果發現，投資於R&D要素對於公司的成長並沒有顯著的影響，甚至對於中小型公司為負向影響。產業內知識外溢效果方面，對於各公司規模皆有正向的幫助。產業間知識外溢效果則呈現對大規模公司有正向幫助，對中小規模公司則為負向效果。在知識經濟時代下，兩種知識外溢效果確實有助於大規模公司的成長，為產業聚集的重要成因之ㄧ，但對於中小規模公司則有不同的效果產生。因此在促進產業發展的區位規劃設計上，需要考量不同規模公司與不同知識外溢效果的相互關係，以便有助於生產者服務業的發展，建立更具有國際競爭力的都市型態。 / Facing the developing economics of knowledge and globalization, Taipei metropolitan area has faced the issue of industrial restructuring. The strategy for globalization is to develop the producer services (PS) sector, in order to improve higher competitiveness to the city. The theory of agglomeration economics includes scale economics, localization economics and urbanization economics. Nowadays, spillover effect is considered as the most important reason that industries agglomeration develop in urban areas. This paper analyzes two categories of R&D spillover effect in the PS sector of Taipei metropolitan area by quantile regression. The spatial distance and the Input-Output table are used to calculate the intra-industrial and inter-industrial spillover effect, respectively. The result shows that investment in R&D has a negative effect to firm’s output. Firms with any scale benefit from the intra-industrial spillover effect incomplete. The inter-industrial spillover effect analysis shows that only the bigger scale firms can get the positive benefit, the smaller scale firms get the negative effect. The research analyzes different kinds of R&D spillover effect, and the result show that there are different effects among different conditions. In sum, this research suggests that the disposition of industrial location should consider both the scale of firm and the different spillover effect. As above, utilizing the R&D spillover effect is an important factor to develop the PS sector and to construct the global city.