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This thesis analyses the impact of three different trade shocks on labour market outcomes and firms’ performance. The first chapter evaluates the impact of an increase in import competition on employment, gender employment gap and structural transformation in Ethiopia over the 1994-2013 period. In the second chapter, the objective is to investigate the changes in the Egyptian trade policies on wages and job stability, with a panel dataset covering a 20 years period (1998-2018); the last chapter examines the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on firms with different modes of internationalization, in terms of changes in sales and in business strategies. By exploiting three different very rich micro-level datasets, we study trade shocks under three different perspectives: a worker-level perspective, a firm-level perspective and a local labour market perspective. What emerges is that the impact of trade shocks is ultimately an empirical question, and that the direction of results greatly depends on the economic context under analysis. When trade liberalization is implemented in countries whose structural transformation process is still at an early stage, as in the Ethiopian case, this can harm rather than benefit their economies. On the other hand, the evidence in the third chapter suggests that being interconnected in the international market can help firms mitigating the shock, not only when the shock is domestic or idiosyncratic, but also, as in the case of Covid-19, when the it affects the whole global economy.

I examine the importance of human capital for economic development in Thailand during the period of high economic growth and structural transformation (1985-2000), using labour force survey data. The three main chapters attempt to estimate the effects of education, as a measure of human capital, on three major outcomes in the Thai labour market, namely (i) earnings; (ii) sector of employment; and (iii) earnings inequality. I address the endogeneity problem of education using an education policy shift—the change in the compulsory schooling law—that produces exogenous variation in education. The three main chapters adopt distinct modelling frameworks. The details of each of the main chapters are as follows. The third chapter investigates how education increases earnings and the probability of being in the non-agricultural sector. As the education policy shift influences educational attainment in a discontinuous way, a regression discontinuity (RD) framework is adopted to identify the average returns to education and the effect of education on the sector of employment. It is important to emphasise that the RD technique constrains the effects of education on the two outcomes to be linear and to be applicable only to sub-populations. My results confirm significant effects of education on both earnings and the sectoral sorting process. In addition, there are heterogeneous effects of education by gender. The fourth chapter is an extension of the previous chapter. I allow the returns to education to be heterogeneous across education levels and sectors of employment, while attempting to estimate the returns for the entire population. I use a control function (CF) approach and a double selection correction to estimate the sectoral earnings process, while jointly accounting for the choice of education and the selection into sectors and paid employment. I find that the returns to education are non-linear and higher in the non-agricultural sector especially for medium and highly educated workers. This suggests that human capital plays a crucial role in facilitating a structural transformation towards the non-agricultural sector. In the final chapter, I study how the increased primary education completion rate affects earnings inequality. While there exists a burgeoning literature on the average returns to education, less attention has been devoted to estimating the effects of education on the distribution of earnings. I identify the effects of primary education completion on earnings at different points of the distribution, and thus earnings inequality, using a recently developed approach, called regression discontinuity distributional treatment effects. My results suggest that the increased primary education completion rate reduces earnings inequality as the returns to primary education are larger for the poor than the rich.

Moving beyond a focus on institutional frameworks to the deeper forms of politics and power relations that determine their functioning, this thesis explores the political dynamics of growth and structural transformation in Kenya. Deploying a conceptual framework that combines political settlement analysis, which explores how the underlying structure of power shapes incentives for elites to adopt developmental forms of governance, with two concepts from the state business relations literature, the deals and rents spaces, which together link macro level political settlement analysis with a meso level analysis of specific economic actors, the thesis offers new understandings for Kenyas economic development. It argues that Kenyas period of comparatively good growth during the 1960s and 1970s, generally attributed to the inheritance of reasonably coherent institutions at independence as well as favourable external dynamics, actually owed more to Kenyas relatively stable political settlement, which allowed ruling elites to unveil a closed ordered deals regime that provided favoured investors, predominantly from President Kenyattas Kikuyu ethnic group, but also foreign firms, with sufficient credible commitment to invest in productive activities. Similarly, the thesis finds that Kenyas declining performance during the 1980s and 1990s, explained in the literature by worsening external conditions and the capture of increasingly outdated colonial era institutions, was driven more by the ruling coalitions increasing vulnerability, which incentivised then President Moi to prioritise short term politics of survival over sound economic management, particularly after the transition to multi party politics in the 1990s. This resulted in an extremely closed and increasingly disordered deals space, undermining investor confidence and growth. However, a key finding of the thesis, and one that challenges a general view within the literature that corruption permeated all areas of Kenyas economy during the 1980s and 1990s, is that key sectors like horticulture and garments, which made vital contributions to foreign exchange and vote winning employment, were relatively insulated from these political dynamics, helping to explain why Kenya did not suffer a complete growth collapse. Finally, the thesis finds that improved economic outcomes from the early 2000s did not flow from the enactment of donor demanded reforms, as the literature suggests, but rather from increased order within the deals space. This was driven by a reduction in the ruling coalitions vulnerability as well as the ideological predilections of President Kibaki, Mois successor, whose deeply held ideas drove him to implement his economic vision in the face of countervailing political incentives. Critically, the thesis finds that Kibaki enforced ordered but closed deals in Kenyas financial services industry, giving influential banking and telecommunication firms the regulatory space and certainty that they required to innovate with products like mobile money, kickstarting a financial services revolution that has, amongst other things, significantly improved the availability and costs of credit. However, a key finding is that the closed deals predominant in banking and telecommunications, combined with the open deals found in export focused sectors like horticulture and garments, where firms have utilised their increased holding power to push for further openings in deals, has led to the emergence of a dualistic deals space that, if not tackled through incremental governance reforms, undermines the prospects for Kenya achieving a long term growth acceleration and structurally transforming its economy. These findings inform the thesis policy recommendations, which include a focus on how pockets of effectiveness can play a critical role in promoting growth in otherwise unfavourable governance contexts.

[pt] Esta tese explora o impacto da infraestrutura de transporte sobre desenvolvimento econômico e os efeitos do poder político das elites agrárias no investimento em educação. O primeiro capítulo documenta o impacto da rede ferroviária brasileira na transformação estrutural da economia entre o final do século XIX e meados do século XX. Exploramos a variação induzida pela localização geográfica, onde municípios próximos às rotas de menor custo estavam mais propensos a serem conectados ao sistema ferroviário, para identificar os efeitos causais das ferrovias sobre transformação estrutural. Mostramos que a expansão da infraestrutura de transporte realoca os trabalhadores da agricultura para a manufatura. Fornecemos evidências de que a integração do mercado e a adoção de novas tecnologias pelas empresas manufatureiras são dois mecanismos importantes que explicam a mudança na estrutura ocupacional da economia. O segundo capítulo explora a persistência do impacto da rede ferroviária brasileira no desenvolvimento econômico de longo prazo entre 1950 e 2010. Exploramos a variação induzida pela localização geográfica, onde municípios próximos às rotas de menor custo tinham maior probabilidade de estarem conectados ao sistema ferroviário, para identificar os efeitos causais das ferrovias na atividade econômica. Mostramos que, apesar do declínio da rede ferroviária pós-1950, o efeito sobre desenvolvimento econômico persistiu ao longo do tempo. Nossos resultados sugerem que aglomeração e urbanização foram os principais impulsionadores da persistência da atividade econômica. No terceiro capítulo, estudamos a relação entre o poder político das elites agrárias e a disseminação da educação em massa no início do século XX no Brasil. Utilizamos um novo conjunto de dados sobre a estrutura ocupacional das elites votantes em 1905 e censos históricos para testar se locais onde mais eleitores pertenciam à elite agrícola investiam menos em educação. Constatamos que os municípios com maior participação de eleitores na agricultura têm uma menor taxa de alfabetização em 1920 e esses efeitos persistem até a década de 1970. A longo prazo, os municípios com maior participação de eleitores na agricultura têm menos anos de escolaridade e menor renda per capita. Apresentamos evidências de que o fornecimento de insumos educacionais é o principal mecanismo que explica a persistência a longo prazo. / [en] This dissertation explores the impact of transportation infrastructure on economic development and the effects of agrarian elites political power on investments in education. The first chapter documents the impact of the Brazilian railway network on structural transformation between the late nineteenth and middle twentieth century. We exploit variation induced by geographic location, where municipalities near the least-cost routes were more likely to be connected to railway system, to identify the causal effects of railroads on structural transformation. We show that the expansion of the transportation infrastructure shifts the workers from agriculture to manufacturing. We provide evidence that market integration and the adoption of new technologies by manufacturing firms were two important mechanisms that explain the change in the occupational structure of the economy. The second chapter explores the persistence of the impact of Brazil s railway network on long-run economic development between 1950 and 2010. We exploit variation induced by geographic location, where municipalities near the least-cost routes were more likely to be connected to railway system, to identify the causal effects of railroads on economic activity. We show that, despite the decline of the railway network post-1950s, the effect on economic development persisted. Our findings suggest that agglomeration and urbanization were key drivers of economic activity persistence. In the third chapter, we study the relationship between the political power of agrarian elites and the spread of mass schooling in the early 20th century in Brazil. We use a novel dataset on the occupational structure of the voting elites in 1905 and historical censuses to test whether places, where more voters belonged to the agriculture elite, invested less in schooling. We find that municipalities with a higher share of agriculture voters have a lower literacy rate in 1920 and these effects persist until the 1970s. In the long-run, municipalities that had a higher share of agriculture voters have fewer years of schooling and lower income per capita. We provide evidence that the supply of educational inputs is the main mechanism that explains the long-term persistence.

The thesis deals with the preparation, characterization and, in particular, with the switching properties of phase-change material (PCM) thin films. The films were deposited using the Pulsed Laser Deposition (PLD) technique. Phase transformations in these films were triggered by means of thermal annealing, laser pulses, and electrical pulses. The five major physical aspects structure transformation, crystallization kinetics, topography, optical properties, and electrical properties have been investigated using XRD, TEM, SEM, AFM, DSC, UV-Vis spectroscopy, a custom-made nanosecond UV laser pump-probe system, in situ resistance measurements, and conductive-AFM. The systematic investigation of the ex situ thermally induced crystallization process of pure stoichiometric GeTe films and O-incorporating GeTe films provides detailed information on structure transformation, topography, crystallization kinetics, optical reflectivity and electrical resistivity. The results reveal a significant improvement of the thermal stability in PCM application for data storage. With the aim of reducing the switching energy consumption and to enhance the optical reflectivity contrast by improving the quality of the produced films, the growth of the GeTe films with simultaneous in situ thermal treatment was investigated with respect to optimizing the film growth conditions, e.g. growth temperature, substrate type. For the investigation of the fast phase transformation process, GeTe films were irradiated by ns UV laser pulses, tailoring various parameters such as pulse number, laser fluence, pulse repetition rate, and film thickness. Additionally, the investigation focused on the comparison of crystallization of GST thin films induced by either nano- or femtosecond single laser pulse irradiation, used to attain a high data transfer rate and to improve the understanding of the mechanisms of fast phase transformation. Non-volatile optical multilevel switching in GeTe phase-change films was identified to be feasible and accurately controllable at a timescale of nanoseconds, which is promising for high speed and high storage density of optical memory devices. Moreover, correlating the dynamics of the optical switching process and the structural information demonstrated not only exactly how fast phase change processes take place, but also, importantly, allowed the determination of the rapid kinetics of phase transformation on the microscopic scale. In the next step, a new general concept for the combination of PCRAM and ReRAM was developed. Bipolar electrical switching of PCM memory cells at the nanoscale can be achieved and improvements of the performance in terms of RESET/SET operation voltage, On/Off resistance ratio and cycling endurance are demonstrated. The original underlying mechanism was verified by the Poole-Frenkel conduction model. The polarity-dependent resistance switching processes can be visualized simultaneously by topography and current images. The local microstructure on the nanoscale of such memory cells and the corresponding local chemical composition were correlated. The gained results contribute to meeting the key challenges of the current understanding and of the development of PCMs for data storage applications, covering thin film preparation, thermal stability, signal-to-noise ratio, switching energy, data transfer rate, storage density, and scalability.

Land Ownership and Development: Evidence from Postwar Japan This paper analyzes the effect of land ownership on technology adoption and structural transformation. A large-scale land reform in postwar Japan enforced a large number of tenant farmers who were cultivating land to become owners of this land. I find that the municipalities which had many owner farmers after the land reform tended to experience a quick entry of new agricultural machines which became available after the reform. The adoption of the machines reduced the dependence on family labor, and led to a reallocation of labor from agriculture to industries and service sectors in urban centers when these sectors were growing. I also analyze the aggregate impact of labor reallocation on economic growth by using a simple growth model and micro data. I find that it increased GDP by about 12 percent of the GDP in 1974 during 1955-74. I also find a large and positive effect on agricultural productivity. Loyalty and Treason: Theory and Evidence from Japan's Land Reform A historically large-scale land reform in Japan after World War II enforced by the occupation forces redistributed a large area of farmlands to tenant farmers. The reform demolished hierarchical structures by weakening landlords' power in villages and towns. This paper investigates how the change in the social and economic structure of small communities affects electoral outcomes in the presence of clientelism. I find that there was a considerable decrease in the vote share of conservative parties in highly affected areas after the reform. I find the supporting evidence that the effect was driven by the fact that the tenant farmers who had obtained land exited from the long-term tenancy contract and became independent landowners. The effect was relatively persistent. Finally, I also find the surprising result that there was a decrease, rather than an increase, in turnout in these areas after the reform.  Geography and State Fragmentation We examine how geography affects the location of borders between sovereign states in Europe and surrounding areas from 1500 until today at the grid-cell level. This is motivated by an observation that the richest places in this region also have the highest historical border presence, suggesting a hitherto unexplored link between geography and modern development, working through state fragmentation. The raw correlations show that borders tend to be located on mountains, by rivers, closer to coasts, and in areas suitable for rainfed, but not irrigated, agriculture. Many of these patterns also hold with rigorous spatial controls. For example, cells with more rivers and more rugged terrain than their neighboring cells have higher border densities. However, the fragmenting effects of suitability for rainfed agriculture are reversed with such neighbor controls. Moreover, we find that borders are less likely to survive over time when they separate large states from small, but this size-difference effect is mitigated by, e.g., rugged terrain.

This thesis is an analysis of technology diffusion and the long-run institutional impact of the nature of that diffusion. It examines how a growing commercial trading relationship with Lancashire-based millwrights enabled textile industrialisation in late 19th century Bombay, and reflects upon the evolving character of Indian manufacturing and organisational behaviour within and beyond the colonial context, and into 21st century industrial strategy. Drawing upon primary archival material from sources in Britain and India (including historical company records, trade association records, transactional correspondence between Lancashire and Bombay, and administrative records of the India Office in Whitehall), and upon 27 elite interviews with prominent Mumbai-based businessmen and their families, a technological and cultural dependence by manufacturing elites upon the commercial agent is identified. The emplacement of colonial business norms and particularly the use of informal networks, in turn bolstered by a culture for clubbability, appears to influence the distinctly tight-knit, ‘gentlemanly’ character of Indian family business houses established during the late 19th and early 20th century. Applying a mixed-methods approach to technology theory and analysis, the data chapters are split into two parts, respectively concerning info rmation flows and knowledge flows from the UK to Western India. The former explores patterns in technological transactions and decisions governing the diffusion of textile technology that enabled industrial establishment. The latter focuses on the replication of managerial, cultural and business practices following and reflecting upon Bombay’s textile industrialisation; this establishes the observed presence of British ideals of gentlemanly business conduct within informal networks, familial and community ties. Overall, this research highlights how business history may be used as a lens to understand the process of technology diffusion and analyse the reinforcement of culturally-hybrid social norms in peripheral regions via technical or commercial links. In terms of developmental trajectory, moreover, this case study considers how given limited capacity for innovation or capital goods production, strategic supply-side decisions may garner early cumulative value by replicating industrial production, albeit with long-term institutional consequences. This research has implications for future understanding of the development of UK-Commonwealth trading relationships, and how these might foster structural transformation in the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution. While this thesis focuses on the diffusion of physical capital and technology-driven industry, such a narrative exploration of networks and business norms surrounding structural transformation might be pursued based on alternative factors of production including capital investment and flow, or else feasibly extend into other post-colonial regions.

Submitted by Pedro Caratori (pedrocaratori@gmail.com) on 2012-02-15T11:21:56Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Final_PEDRO_FINAL.pdf: 854760 bytes, checksum: 84c4b87894fb2fb47ea6906278c0e42b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2012-03-14T14:33:30Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Final_PEDRO_FINAL.pdf: 854760 bytes, checksum: 84c4b87894fb2fb47ea6906278c0e42b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-03-14T14:43:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Final_PEDRO_FINAL.pdf: 854760 bytes, checksum: 84c4b87894fb2fb47ea6906278c0e42b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-05-30 / O objetivo do presente trabalho é investigar estatisticamente a influência de determinantes econômicos, tais como, PIB per capita, câmbio real, escolaridade, abertura comercial, peso do governo no produto e população, na perda de peso do setor industrial no produto. A regressão foi estruturada na forma de painel, com dimensão temporal, para capturar a evolução no tempo, e com 130 países, de forma a garantir heterogeneidade à amostra. O resultado indica uma forte influência do produto per capita na evolução do tamanho relativo do setor manufatureiro, o que reforça o ponto da transformação estrutural e estabelece uma relação positiva entre apreciação da taxa de câmbio real e o peso da indústria. / This paper aims to investigate statistically the influence of economic indicators, such as, GDP per capita, real exchange rate, education, trade openness, government share of the GDP and population on the decline of the industrial sector as percentage of the GDP. The regression was structured in the form of a panel with time dimension to capture the evolution in time e with 130 countries to ensure the heterogeneity of the sample. The results point to a strong influence of the GDP per capita in the evolution of the relative size of the manufacturing sector, reassuring the idea of structural transformation, as well as they establish a positive relationship between the real exchange rate appreciation and the percentage of the industrial sector in the total product.

Submitted by FRANCISCO Lima Filho (franciscoluislimafilho@gmail.com) on 2015-07-22T18:04:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FranciscoLuis_VersãoBiblioteca.pdf: 710120 bytes, checksum: fe33b7f98d5c7c76277246a9e4eacf7c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by BRUNA BARROS (bruna.barros@fgv.br) on 2015-07-23T14:09:15Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FranciscoLuis_VersãoBiblioteca.pdf: 710120 bytes, checksum: fe33b7f98d5c7c76277246a9e4eacf7c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Almeida (maria.socorro@fgv.br) on 2015-07-30T19:20:16Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FranciscoLuis_VersãoBiblioteca.pdf: 710120 bytes, checksum: fe33b7f98d5c7c76277246a9e4eacf7c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-30T19:20:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FranciscoLuis_VersãoBiblioteca.pdf: 710120 bytes, checksum: fe33b7f98d5c7c76277246a9e4eacf7c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-04-28 / We estimate the effects of the adoption of mechanized agriculture led by a new environmental regulation on structural change of local labor markets within a large emerging country, Brazil. In 2002, the state of S\~{a}o Paulo passed a law outlying the timeline to end sugarcane pre-harvest burning in the state. The environmental law led to the fast adoption of mechanized harvest. We investigate if the labor intensity of sugarcane production decreases; and, if so, if it leads to structural changes in the labor market. We use satellite data containing the type of sugarcane harvesting -- manual or mechanic harvest -- paired with official labor market data.%, also geomorphometric data base for our instrumental variable correction. We find suggestive evidence that mechanization of the field led to an increase in utilization of formal workers and a reduction in formal labor intensity in the sugarcane sector. This is partially compensated by an increase in the share of workers in other agricultural crops and in the construction and services sector. Although we find a reduction in employment in the manufacturing sector, the demand generated by the new agro-industries affected positively the all sectors via an increase in workers' wage.