Objective: To investigate the relation between cannabis use and psychotic symptoms in individuals with above average predisposition for psychosis who first used cannabis during adolescence. Design: Analysis of prospective data from a population based sample. Assessment of substance use, predisposition for psychosis, and psychotic symptoms was based on standardised personal interviews at baseline and at follow up four years later. Participants: 2437 young people (aged 14 to 24 years) with and without predisposition for psychosis. Main outcome measure: Psychotic symptoms at follow up as a function of cannabis use and predisposition for psychosis at baseline. Results: After adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status, urbanicity, childhood trauma, predisposition for psychosis at baseline, and use of other drugs, tobacco, and alcohol, cannabis use at baseline increased the cumulative incidence of psychotic symptoms at follow up four years later (adjusted odds ratio 1.67, 95% confidence interval 1.13 to 2.46). The effect of cannabis use was much stronger in those with any predisposition for psychosis at baseline (23.8% adjusted difference in risk, 95% confidence interval 7.9 to 39.7, P = 0.003) than in those without (5.6%, 0.4 to 10.8, P = 0.033). The risk difference in the “predisposition” group was significantly greater than the risk difference in the “no predisposition” group (test for interaction 18.2%, 1.6 to 34.8, P = 0.032). There was a dose-response relation with increasing frequency of cannabis use. Predisposition for psychosis at baseline did not significantly predict cannabis use four years later (adjusted odds ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 2.31). Conclusion: Cannabis use moderately increases the risk of psychotic symptoms in young people but has a much stronger effect in those with evidence of predisposition for psychosis.

Objective: To investigate the relation between cannabis use and psychotic symptoms in individuals with above average predisposition for psychosis who first used cannabis during adolescence. Design: Analysis of prospective data from a population based sample. Assessment of substance use, predisposition for psychosis, and psychotic symptoms was based on standardised personal interviews at baseline and at follow up four years later. Participants: 2437 young people (aged 14 to 24 years) with and without predisposition for psychosis. Main outcome measure: Psychotic symptoms at follow up as a function of cannabis use and predisposition for psychosis at baseline. Results: After adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status, urbanicity, childhood trauma, predisposition for psychosis at baseline, and use of other drugs, tobacco, and alcohol, cannabis use at baseline increased the cumulative incidence of psychotic symptoms at follow up four years later (adjusted odds ratio 1.67, 95% confidence interval 1.13 to 2.46). The effect of cannabis use was much stronger in those with any predisposition for psychosis at baseline (23.8% adjusted difference in risk, 95% confidence interval 7.9 to 39.7, P = 0.003) than in those without (5.6%, 0.4 to 10.8, P = 0.033). The risk difference in the “predisposition” group was significantly greater than the risk difference in the “no predisposition” group (test for interaction 18.2%, 1.6 to 34.8, P = 0.032). There was a dose-response relation with increasing frequency of cannabis use. Predisposition for psychosis at baseline did not significantly predict cannabis use four years later (adjusted odds ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 2.31). Conclusion: Cannabis use moderately increases the risk of psychotic symptoms in young people but has a much stronger effect in those with evidence of predisposition for psychosis.

Objective: To determine whether use of cannabis in adolescence increases the risk for psychotic outcomes by affecting the incidence and persistence of subclinical expression of psychosis in the general population (that is, expression of psychosis below the level required for a clinical diagnosis). Design: Analysis of data from a prospective population based cohort study in Germany (early developmental stages of psychopathology study). Setting: Population based cohort study in Germany. Participants: 1923 individuals from the general population, aged 14-24 at baseline. Main outcome measure: Incidence and persistence of subthreshold psychotic symptoms after use of cannabis in adolescence. Cannabis use and psychotic symptoms were assessed at three time points (baseline, T2 (3.5 years), T3 (8.4 years)) over a 10 year follow-up period with the Munich version of the composite international diagnostic interview (M-CIDI). Results: In individuals who had no reported lifetime psychotic symptoms and no reported lifetime cannabis use at baseline, incident cannabis use over the period from baseline to T2 increased the risk of later incident psychotic symptoms over the period from T2 to T3 (adjusted odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.1; P=0.021). Furthermore, continued use of cannabis increased the risk of persistent psychotic symptoms over the period from T2 to T3 (2.2, 1.2 to 4.2; P=0.016). The incidence rate of psychotic symptoms over the period from baseline to T2 was 31% (152) in exposed individuals versus 20% (284) in non-exposed individuals; over the period from T2 to T3 these rates were 14% (108) and 8% (49), respectively. Conclusion: Cannabis use is a risk factor for the development of incident psychotic symptoms. Continued cannabis use might increase the risk for psychotic disorder by impacting on the persistence of symptoms.

Objectives: To determine incidence and patterns of natural course of cannabis use and disorders as well as cohort effects in a community sample of adolescents and young adults. Method: Cumulative incidence and patterns of cannabis use and disorders were examined in a prospective longitudinal design (mean follow-up period=42 months) in a representative sample (N=2446) aged 14–24 years at the outset of the study. Patterns of cannabis use, abuse and dependence (DSM-IV) were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI). Results: (1) Cumulative lifetime incidence for cannabis use (at second follow-up): 47%; 5.5% for cannabis abuse, 2.2% for dependence. (2) Men used and abused cannabis more often than women. (3) The majority of the older participants (18–24 years at baseline) had reduced their cannabis use at follow-up, while younger participants (14–17 years at baseline) more often had increased their use and developed abuse or dependence. (4) The younger birth cohort (1977–1981) tended to start earlier with substance (ab)use compared to the older birth cohort (1970–1977). (5) Cannabis use was associated with increasing rates of concomitant use of other licit and illicit drugs. Conclusions: Cannabis use is widespread in our sample, but the probability of developing cannabis abuse or dependence is relatively low (8%). The natural course of cannabis use is quite variable: about half of all cannabis users stopped their use spontaneously in their twenties, others report occasional or more frequent use of cannabis.

Objective: To determine whether use of cannabis in adolescence increases the risk for psychotic outcomes by affecting the incidence and persistence of subclinical expression of psychosis in the general population (that is, expression of psychosis below the level required for a clinical diagnosis). Design: Analysis of data from a prospective population based cohort study in Germany (early developmental stages of psychopathology study). Setting: Population based cohort study in Germany. Participants: 1923 individuals from the general population, aged 14-24 at baseline. Main outcome measure: Incidence and persistence of subthreshold psychotic symptoms after use of cannabis in adolescence. Cannabis use and psychotic symptoms were assessed at three time points (baseline, T2 (3.5 years), T3 (8.4 years)) over a 10 year follow-up period with the Munich version of the composite international diagnostic interview (M-CIDI). Results: In individuals who had no reported lifetime psychotic symptoms and no reported lifetime cannabis use at baseline, incident cannabis use over the period from baseline to T2 increased the risk of later incident psychotic symptoms over the period from T2 to T3 (adjusted odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.1; P=0.021). Furthermore, continued use of cannabis increased the risk of persistent psychotic symptoms over the period from T2 to T3 (2.2, 1.2 to 4.2; P=0.016). The incidence rate of psychotic symptoms over the period from baseline to T2 was 31% (152) in exposed individuals versus 20% (284) in non-exposed individuals; over the period from T2 to T3 these rates were 14% (108) and 8% (49), respectively. Conclusion: Cannabis use is a risk factor for the development of incident psychotic symptoms. Continued cannabis use might increase the risk for psychotic disorder by impacting on the persistence of symptoms.

Objective: To determine incidence and patterns of natural course of ecstasy/stimulant/hallucinogen (ESH) use and disorders as well as cohort effects in a community sample of adolescents and young adults. Method: Cumulative incidence and patterns of ecstasy use and disorders were examined in a prospective longitudinal design (mean follow-up period=42 months) in a representative sample (N=2446) aged 14–24 years at the outset of the study. Patterns of DSM-IV defined ESH use, abuse and dependence were assessed with the Munich Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI). Results: (1) Cumulative lifetime incidence for use of ESH at second follow-up: 9.1%, 1.0% for abuse, 0.6% for dependence; (2) men used and abused ESH more often than women; (3) the younger birth cohort (1977–81) tended to start earlier with substance (ab)use compared to the older birth cohort (1970–77); (4) use of ESH was associated with increasing rates of concomitant use of other licit and illicit drugs; (5) the majority of the lifetime ESH users without disorder had stopped to use these substances and not consumed them during the 12 months preceding the second follow-up; (6) those who had stopped to take ecstasy and related drugs at follow-up also took other illicit drugs less often than those who continued to consume ESH. Conclusions: Use of designer drugs is widespread in our sample, but the probability of developing use disorders is fairly low (1.6%). The majority of the ESH users stopped their use spontaneously in their twenties (80% of the prior users without disorder, 67% of the prior abusers), but 50% of those that once had fulfilled DSM-IV criteria of dependence continued to use these substances.

Objectives: To determine incidence and patterns of natural course of cannabis use and disorders as well as cohort effects in a community sample of adolescents and young adults. Method: Cumulative incidence and patterns of cannabis use and disorders were examined in a prospective longitudinal design (mean follow-up period=42 months) in a representative sample (N=2446) aged 14–24 years at the outset of the study. Patterns of cannabis use, abuse and dependence (DSM-IV) were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI). Results: (1) Cumulative lifetime incidence for cannabis use (at second follow-up): 47%; 5.5% for cannabis abuse, 2.2% for dependence. (2) Men used and abused cannabis more often than women. (3) The majority of the older participants (18–24 years at baseline) had reduced their cannabis use at follow-up, while younger participants (14–17 years at baseline) more often had increased their use and developed abuse or dependence. (4) The younger birth cohort (1977–1981) tended to start earlier with substance (ab)use compared to the older birth cohort (1970–1977). (5) Cannabis use was associated with increasing rates of concomitant use of other licit and illicit drugs. Conclusions: Cannabis use is widespread in our sample, but the probability of developing cannabis abuse or dependence is relatively low (8%). The natural course of cannabis use is quite variable: about half of all cannabis users stopped their use spontaneously in their twenties, others report occasional or more frequent use of cannabis.

Objective: To determine incidence and patterns of natural course of ecstasy/stimulant/hallucinogen (ESH) use and disorders as well as cohort effects in a community sample of adolescents and young adults. Method: Cumulative incidence and patterns of ecstasy use and disorders were examined in a prospective longitudinal design (mean follow-up period=42 months) in a representative sample (N=2446) aged 14–24 years at the outset of the study. Patterns of DSM-IV defined ESH use, abuse and dependence were assessed with the Munich Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI). Results: (1) Cumulative lifetime incidence for use of ESH at second follow-up: 9.1%, 1.0% for abuse, 0.6% for dependence; (2) men used and abused ESH more often than women; (3) the younger birth cohort (1977–81) tended to start earlier with substance (ab)use compared to the older birth cohort (1970–77); (4) use of ESH was associated with increasing rates of concomitant use of other licit and illicit drugs; (5) the majority of the lifetime ESH users without disorder had stopped to use these substances and not consumed them during the 12 months preceding the second follow-up; (6) those who had stopped to take ecstasy and related drugs at follow-up also took other illicit drugs less often than those who continued to consume ESH. Conclusions: Use of designer drugs is widespread in our sample, but the probability of developing use disorders is fairly low (1.6%). The majority of the ESH users stopped their use spontaneously in their twenties (80% of the prior users without disorder, 67% of the prior abusers), but 50% of those that once had fulfilled DSM-IV criteria of dependence continued to use these substances.

Background. Previous research suggests that individuals experiencing DSM-IV panic attacks (PA) are at increased risk for various forms of psychopathology, including anxiety, depressive and substance use disorders. However, little is known regarding whether the sole occurrence of fearful spells (FS-only; distressing spells of anxiety with less than four panic symptoms and/or lacking crescendo in symptom onset) similarly elevates the risk for subsequent psychopathology and could therefore be promising to identify high-risk groups for targeted preventive interventions. Thus, the current dissertation thesis aims to examine (a) whether FS-only predict incident mental disorders in addition to full-blown PA and whether their associations with subsequent psychopathology differ from those obtained for PA, (b) whether FS-only, PA, and panic disorder (PD) share similar etiologies, (c) which characteristics of initial FS/PA and other risk factors predict a progression to more severe panic pathology and other mental disorders, and (d) whether help-seeking/potential treatment in individuals with panic alters the risk for subsequent psychopathology. Methods. A representative community sample of adolescents and young adults (N=3021, aged 14-24 at baseline) was prospectively followed up in up to three assessment waves over a time period of up to 10 years. FS-only, PA, PD, and other mental disorders were assessed at each assessment wave using the DSM-IV-M-CIDI. Additional modules/questionnaires were used to assess characteristics of initial FS/PA (T1/T2), potential risk factors, and help-seeking/potential treatment. Logistic regressions were applied to test associations (Odds Ratios, OR) of FS-only and PA at baseline with incident mental disorders at follow-up as well as respective interactive effects with help-seeking at baseline. Associations (Hazard Ratios, HR) of putative risk factors with the onset of panic pathology (FS-only, PA, and PD) or the onset of subsequent anxiety/depressive vs. substance use disorders in those with panic pathology (aggregated data across assessment waves) were estimated with Cox regressions. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to test associations of initial FS/PA characteristics (aggregated from T1 and T2) with PA and PD (lifetime incidences aggregated across assessment waves). Results. FS-only at baseline predicted incident anxiety and depressive disorders at follow-up (OR 1.59-4.36), while PA at baseline predicted incident anxiety, depressive, and substance use disorders at follow-up (OR 2.08-8.75; reference group: No FS/PA). Merely any anxiety disorder (OR=3.26) and alcohol abuse/dependence (OR=2.26) were significantly more strongly associated with PA than with FS-only. Female sex, parental anxiety disorders, parental depressive disorders, behavioral inhibition, harm avoidance, lower coping efficacy, and parental rejection predicted FS-only, PA, and PD (HR 1.2-3.0), whereas the associations with other risk factors partially differed for FS-only, PA, and PD and tended to be more pronounced for PA and PD than for FS-only. Alcohol consumption, use of drugs/medication, and physical illness as perceived reasons for the initial FS/PA were associated with the occurrence of full-blown PA (without PD, OR 2.46-5.44), while feelings of anxiety/depression and having always been anxious/nervous as perceived reasons for the initial FS/PA, appraising the initial FS/PA as terrible and long-term irritating/burdensome, subsequent feelings of depression, avoidance of situations/places, and consumption of medication, alcohol, or drugs were associated with the development of PD (OR 2.64-4.15). A longer duration until “feeling okay again” was associated with both PA and PD (OR 1.29-1.63 per category). Moreover, partially different risk constellations in subjects with panic pathology (FS/PA/PD) predicted the onset of subsequent anxiety/depressive vs. substance use disorders. Panic pathology (FS/PA) and help-seeking/potential treatment at baseline interacted on predicting incident PD (OR=0.09) and depression (OR=0.22) at follow-up in a way that panic pathology only predicted these disorders in individuals not seeking help at baseline. Conclusions. Findings suggest that individuals with FS-only are at similar risk of developing subsequent psychopathology compared to individuals with full-blown PA. Specific initial FS/PA characteristics and additional risk factors may be used to identify sub-groups of individuals with panic pathology, which are at particular risk of progressing to more severe panic pathology or other mental disorders and might therefore profit from supplemental outcome-related preventive interventions in addition to panic-specific treatment. Future research may replicate the current findings and test the efficacy of targeted preventive interventions in panickers at elevated risk for PD and other forms of psychopathology. / Theoretischer Hintergrund. Auf Grundlage früherer Forschungsbefunde ist anzunehmen, dass Personen mit DSM-IV-Panikattacken (PA) ein erhöhtes Risiko für zahlreiche psychische Störungen, einschließlich Angst-, depressiver und Substanzstörungen, aufweisen. Unklar ist jedoch, ob das alleinige Auftreten von Fearful Spells (FS-only, Angstanfälle mit weniger als vier Paniksymptomen und/oder fehlendem Crescendo in der Symptomentwicklung) das Risiko für Psychopathologie in ähnlicher Weise erhöht und hilfreich sein könnte, um Hochrisikogruppen für Präventivinterventionen zu identifizieren. Innerhalb der vorliegenden Dissertation wird daher untersucht, (a) ob FS-only zusätzlich zu PA inzidente psychische Störungen vorhersagen und ob sich Unterschiede in den Assoziationen von FS-only vs. PA mit nachfolgender Psychopathologie ergeben, (b) ob FS-only, PA und Panikstörung (PS) ähnliche Ätiologien teilen, (c) welche Merkmale initialer FS/PA und welche anderen Risikofaktoren die Entwicklung schwerer Panikpathologie und weiterer psychischer Störungen vorhersagen und (d) ob Hilfesuchverhalten/potenzielle Behandlung bei Personen mit Panik das Risiko für nachfolgende Psychopathologie verändert. Methodik. Eine repräsentative Bevölkerungsstichprobe Jugendlicher und junger Erwachsener (N=3021, 14-24 Jahre zur Baseline-Erhebung) wurde in bis zu drei Erhebungswellen über einen Zeitraum von bis zu 10 Jahren untersucht. FS-only, PA, PS und andere psychische Störungen wurden zu jeder Erhebungswelle mithilfe des DSM-IV-M-CIDI erfasst. Merkmale initialer FS/PA (T1/T2), mögliche Risikofaktoren sowie Hilfesuchverhalten/potenzielle Behandlung wurden mit weiteren Modulen und Fragebögen erhoben. Mithilfe logistischer Regressionen wurden Assoziationen (Odds Ratios, OR) von FS-only und PA zu Baseline mit inzidenten psychischen Störungen zum Follow-Up sowie diesbezügliche Interaktionen mit Hilfesuchverhalten zu Baseline getestet. Zusammenhänge zwischen möglichen Risikofaktoren und dem Auftreten von Panikpathologie (FS-only, PA und PS) bzw. nachfolgender Angst-/depressiver und Substanzstörungen bei Personen mit Panikpathologie (Verwendung von über die Erhebungswellen hinweg aggregierter Daten) wurden mithilfe von Cox-Regressionen geschätzt. Multinomiale logistische Regressionen wurden genutzt, um Assoziationen von Merkmalen initialer FS/PA (aggregiert über T1 und T2) mit PA und PS (über die Erhebungswellen hinweg aggregierte Lebenszeitinzidenzen) zu erfassen. Ergebnisse. FS-only zu Baseline sagten inzidente Angst- und depressive Störungen zum Follow-Up vorher (OR 1.59-4.36), wohingegen PA zu Baseline inzidente Angst-, depressive und Substanzstörungen zum Follow-Up vorhersagten (OR 2.08-8.75; Referenzkategorie: Keine FS/PA). Lediglich irgendeine Angststörung (OR=3.26) und Alkoholmissbrauch/-abhängigkeit (OR=2.26) waren signifikant stärker mit PA als mit FS-only assoziiert. Weibliches Geschlecht, elterliche Angst- und depressive Störungen, Verhaltenshemmung, Schadensvermeidung, geringere Coping-Erwartung und elterliche Zurückweisung sagten FS-only, PA und PS vorher (HR 1.2-3.0), während sich teils unterschiedliche Assoziationen anderer Risikofaktoren mit FS-only, PA und PS ergaben, die tendenziell stärker für PA und PS als für FS-only waren. Alkoholkonsum, Drogen-/Medikamentengebrauch und körperliche Erkrankungen als wahrgenommene Gründe für die initiale FS/PA waren mit dem Auftreten vollständiger PA assoziiert (ohne PS; OR 2.46-5.44), während Gefühle von Angst/Depression und die Einschätzung schon immer ängstlich/nervös gewesen zu sein als wahrgenommene Gründe für die initiale FS/PA, die Bewertung der initialen FS/PA als schrecklich und langfristig verunsichernd/belastend, nachfolgende Gefühle von Niedergeschlagenheit, Vermeidung von Situationen/Orten und Konsum von Medikamenten, Alkohol oder Drogen mit der Entwicklung von PS assoziiert waren (OR 2.64-4.15). Eine längere Dauer bis sich die betroffene Person wieder vollständig in Ordnung fühlte war sowohl mit PA als auch mit PS assoziiert (OR 1.29-1.63 pro Kategorie). Weiterhin sagten teils unterschiedliche Risikokonstellationen bei Personen mit Panikpathologie (FS/PA/PS) die nachfolgende Entstehung von Angst-/depressiven und Substanzstörungen vorher. Panikpathologie (FS/PA) und Hilfesuchverhalten/potenzielle Behandlung zu Baseline interagierten bei der Vorhersage von inzidenter PS (OR=0.09) und Depression (OR=0.22) zum Follow-Up; d.h. das Vorhandensein von Panikpathologie sagte diese Störungen nur bei Personen ohne, nicht aber bei Personen mit Hilfesuchverhalten zu Baseline vorher. Schlussfolgerungen. Die vorliegenden Ergebnisse implizieren, dass Personen mit FS-only im Vergleich zu Personen mit vollständigen PA ein ähnliches Risiko für die Entwicklung nachfolgender Psychopathologie aufweisen. Spezifische Merkmale initialer FS/PA und zusätzliche Risikofaktoren könnten zur Identifikation von Sub-Gruppen von Personen mit Panik genutzt werden, die sich durch ein besonderes Risiko für schwergradige Panikpathologie und andere psychische Störungen auszeichnen und demzufolge von Outcome-bezogenen Präventionen (ergänzend zu Panik-spezifischer Intervention) profitieren könnten. Zukünftige Studien sollten die vorliegenden Befunde replizieren und die Effektivität gezielter Präventivinterventionen bei Personen mit erhöhtem Risiko für PS und andere psychische Störungen testen.

Background. Previous research suggests that individuals experiencing DSM-IV panic attacks (PA) are at increased risk for various forms of psychopathology, including anxiety, depressive and substance use disorders. However, little is known regarding whether the sole occurrence of fearful spells (FS-only; distressing spells of anxiety with less than four panic symptoms and/or lacking crescendo in symptom onset) similarly elevates the risk for subsequent psychopathology and could therefore be promising to identify high-risk groups for targeted preventive interventions. Thus, the current dissertation thesis aims to examine (a) whether FS-only predict incident mental disorders in addition to full-blown PA and whether their associations with subsequent psychopathology differ from those obtained for PA, (b) whether FS-only, PA, and panic disorder (PD) share similar etiologies, (c) which characteristics of initial FS/PA and other risk factors predict a progression to more severe panic pathology and other mental disorders, and (d) whether help-seeking/potential treatment in individuals with panic alters the risk for subsequent psychopathology. Methods. A representative community sample of adolescents and young adults (N=3021, aged 14-24 at baseline) was prospectively followed up in up to three assessment waves over a time period of up to 10 years. FS-only, PA, PD, and other mental disorders were assessed at each assessment wave using the DSM-IV-M-CIDI. Additional modules/questionnaires were used to assess characteristics of initial FS/PA (T1/T2), potential risk factors, and help-seeking/potential treatment. Logistic regressions were applied to test associations (Odds Ratios, OR) of FS-only and PA at baseline with incident mental disorders at follow-up as well as respective interactive effects with help-seeking at baseline. Associations (Hazard Ratios, HR) of putative risk factors with the onset of panic pathology (FS-only, PA, and PD) or the onset of subsequent anxiety/depressive vs. substance use disorders in those with panic pathology (aggregated data across assessment waves) were estimated with Cox regressions. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to test associations of initial FS/PA characteristics (aggregated from T1 and T2) with PA and PD (lifetime incidences aggregated across assessment waves). Results. FS-only at baseline predicted incident anxiety and depressive disorders at follow-up (OR 1.59-4.36), while PA at baseline predicted incident anxiety, depressive, and substance use disorders at follow-up (OR 2.08-8.75; reference group: No FS/PA). Merely any anxiety disorder (OR=3.26) and alcohol abuse/dependence (OR=2.26) were significantly more strongly associated with PA than with FS-only. Female sex, parental anxiety disorders, parental depressive disorders, behavioral inhibition, harm avoidance, lower coping efficacy, and parental rejection predicted FS-only, PA, and PD (HR 1.2-3.0), whereas the associations with other risk factors partially differed for FS-only, PA, and PD and tended to be more pronounced for PA and PD than for FS-only. Alcohol consumption, use of drugs/medication, and physical illness as perceived reasons for the initial FS/PA were associated with the occurrence of full-blown PA (without PD, OR 2.46-5.44), while feelings of anxiety/depression and having always been anxious/nervous as perceived reasons for the initial FS/PA, appraising the initial FS/PA as terrible and long-term irritating/burdensome, subsequent feelings of depression, avoidance of situations/places, and consumption of medication, alcohol, or drugs were associated with the development of PD (OR 2.64-4.15). A longer duration until “feeling okay again” was associated with both PA and PD (OR 1.29-1.63 per category). Moreover, partially different risk constellations in subjects with panic pathology (FS/PA/PD) predicted the onset of subsequent anxiety/depressive vs. substance use disorders. Panic pathology (FS/PA) and help-seeking/potential treatment at baseline interacted on predicting incident PD (OR=0.09) and depression (OR=0.22) at follow-up in a way that panic pathology only predicted these disorders in individuals not seeking help at baseline. Conclusions. Findings suggest that individuals with FS-only are at similar risk of developing subsequent psychopathology compared to individuals with full-blown PA. Specific initial FS/PA characteristics and additional risk factors may be used to identify sub-groups of individuals with panic pathology, which are at particular risk of progressing to more severe panic pathology or other mental disorders and might therefore profit from supplemental outcome-related preventive interventions in addition to panic-specific treatment. Future research may replicate the current findings and test the efficacy of targeted preventive interventions in panickers at elevated risk for PD and other forms of psychopathology.:CONTENT 0 Synopsis 10 1 Introduction 13 1.1 Current challenges in clinical psychology 13 1.2 Psychological models of mental disorders 13 1.3 Diagnostic approaches to psychopathology 15 1.4 Methodological issues 16 1.5 Preventive and early treatment interventions 17 2 Panic pathology 18 2.1 Definitions 18 2.2 Epidemiology 19 2.3 Etiology 20 2.4 Physiological, neurobiological, and genetic findings 21 2.5 Unresolved issues 22 3 Aims 24 4 Methods 26 5 Study I: Associations of fearful spells and panic attacks with incident anxiety, depressive, and substance use disorders: A 10-year prospective-longitudinal community study of adolescents and young adults 27 5.1 Abstract 27 5.2 Introduction 27 5.3 Materials and methods 28 5.4 Results 30 5.5 Discussion 35 6 Study II: Characteristics of initial fearful spells and their associations with DSM-IV panic attacks and panic disorder in adolescents and young adults from the community 37 6.1 Abstract 37 6.2 Introduction 37 6.3 Materials and methods 38 6.4 Results 41 6.5 Discussion 43 7 Study III: Risk factors for fearful spells and panic: A 10-year prospective-longitudinal study among adolescents and young adults 47 7.1 Abstract 47 7.2 Introduction 47 7.3 Materials and methods 49 7.4 Results 52 7.5 Discussion 60 8 Study IV: Does help-seeking alter the risk for incident psychopathology in adolescents and young adults with and without fearful spells or panic attacks? Findings from a 10-year prospective-longitudinal community study 63 8.1 Abstract 63 8.2 Introduction 63 8.3 Materials and methods 64 8.4 Results 66 8.5 Discussion 70 9 General discussion 73 9.1 Summary and discussion of main findings 73 9.2 Preventive interventions among individuals with panic pathology 75 9.3 Research implications 77 10 Conclusions 78 11 References 79 12 Appendix 94 12.1 Acknowledgements 94 12.2 Erklärung zu den Eigenanteilen an einzelnen Publikationen 95 12.3 Eigenständigkeitserklärung 96 / Theoretischer Hintergrund. Auf Grundlage früherer Forschungsbefunde ist anzunehmen, dass Personen mit DSM-IV-Panikattacken (PA) ein erhöhtes Risiko für zahlreiche psychische Störungen, einschließlich Angst-, depressiver und Substanzstörungen, aufweisen. Unklar ist jedoch, ob das alleinige Auftreten von Fearful Spells (FS-only, Angstanfälle mit weniger als vier Paniksymptomen und/oder fehlendem Crescendo in der Symptomentwicklung) das Risiko für Psychopathologie in ähnlicher Weise erhöht und hilfreich sein könnte, um Hochrisikogruppen für Präventivinterventionen zu identifizieren. Innerhalb der vorliegenden Dissertation wird daher untersucht, (a) ob FS-only zusätzlich zu PA inzidente psychische Störungen vorhersagen und ob sich Unterschiede in den Assoziationen von FS-only vs. PA mit nachfolgender Psychopathologie ergeben, (b) ob FS-only, PA und Panikstörung (PS) ähnliche Ätiologien teilen, (c) welche Merkmale initialer FS/PA und welche anderen Risikofaktoren die Entwicklung schwerer Panikpathologie und weiterer psychischer Störungen vorhersagen und (d) ob Hilfesuchverhalten/potenzielle Behandlung bei Personen mit Panik das Risiko für nachfolgende Psychopathologie verändert. Methodik. Eine repräsentative Bevölkerungsstichprobe Jugendlicher und junger Erwachsener (N=3021, 14-24 Jahre zur Baseline-Erhebung) wurde in bis zu drei Erhebungswellen über einen Zeitraum von bis zu 10 Jahren untersucht. FS-only, PA, PS und andere psychische Störungen wurden zu jeder Erhebungswelle mithilfe des DSM-IV-M-CIDI erfasst. Merkmale initialer FS/PA (T1/T2), mögliche Risikofaktoren sowie Hilfesuchverhalten/potenzielle Behandlung wurden mit weiteren Modulen und Fragebögen erhoben. Mithilfe logistischer Regressionen wurden Assoziationen (Odds Ratios, OR) von FS-only und PA zu Baseline mit inzidenten psychischen Störungen zum Follow-Up sowie diesbezügliche Interaktionen mit Hilfesuchverhalten zu Baseline getestet. Zusammenhänge zwischen möglichen Risikofaktoren und dem Auftreten von Panikpathologie (FS-only, PA und PS) bzw. nachfolgender Angst-/depressiver und Substanzstörungen bei Personen mit Panikpathologie (Verwendung von über die Erhebungswellen hinweg aggregierter Daten) wurden mithilfe von Cox-Regressionen geschätzt. Multinomiale logistische Regressionen wurden genutzt, um Assoziationen von Merkmalen initialer FS/PA (aggregiert über T1 und T2) mit PA und PS (über die Erhebungswellen hinweg aggregierte Lebenszeitinzidenzen) zu erfassen. Ergebnisse. FS-only zu Baseline sagten inzidente Angst- und depressive Störungen zum Follow-Up vorher (OR 1.59-4.36), wohingegen PA zu Baseline inzidente Angst-, depressive und Substanzstörungen zum Follow-Up vorhersagten (OR 2.08-8.75; Referenzkategorie: Keine FS/PA). Lediglich irgendeine Angststörung (OR=3.26) und Alkoholmissbrauch/-abhängigkeit (OR=2.26) waren signifikant stärker mit PA als mit FS-only assoziiert. Weibliches Geschlecht, elterliche Angst- und depressive Störungen, Verhaltenshemmung, Schadensvermeidung, geringere Coping-Erwartung und elterliche Zurückweisung sagten FS-only, PA und PS vorher (HR 1.2-3.0), während sich teils unterschiedliche Assoziationen anderer Risikofaktoren mit FS-only, PA und PS ergaben, die tendenziell stärker für PA und PS als für FS-only waren. Alkoholkonsum, Drogen-/Medikamentengebrauch und körperliche Erkrankungen als wahrgenommene Gründe für die initiale FS/PA waren mit dem Auftreten vollständiger PA assoziiert (ohne PS; OR 2.46-5.44), während Gefühle von Angst/Depression und die Einschätzung schon immer ängstlich/nervös gewesen zu sein als wahrgenommene Gründe für die initiale FS/PA, die Bewertung der initialen FS/PA als schrecklich und langfristig verunsichernd/belastend, nachfolgende Gefühle von Niedergeschlagenheit, Vermeidung von Situationen/Orten und Konsum von Medikamenten, Alkohol oder Drogen mit der Entwicklung von PS assoziiert waren (OR 2.64-4.15). Eine längere Dauer bis sich die betroffene Person wieder vollständig in Ordnung fühlte war sowohl mit PA als auch mit PS assoziiert (OR 1.29-1.63 pro Kategorie). Weiterhin sagten teils unterschiedliche Risikokonstellationen bei Personen mit Panikpathologie (FS/PA/PS) die nachfolgende Entstehung von Angst-/depressiven und Substanzstörungen vorher. Panikpathologie (FS/PA) und Hilfesuchverhalten/potenzielle Behandlung zu Baseline interagierten bei der Vorhersage von inzidenter PS (OR=0.09) und Depression (OR=0.22) zum Follow-Up; d.h. das Vorhandensein von Panikpathologie sagte diese Störungen nur bei Personen ohne, nicht aber bei Personen mit Hilfesuchverhalten zu Baseline vorher. Schlussfolgerungen. Die vorliegenden Ergebnisse implizieren, dass Personen mit FS-only im Vergleich zu Personen mit vollständigen PA ein ähnliches Risiko für die Entwicklung nachfolgender Psychopathologie aufweisen. Spezifische Merkmale initialer FS/PA und zusätzliche Risikofaktoren könnten zur Identifikation von Sub-Gruppen von Personen mit Panik genutzt werden, die sich durch ein besonderes Risiko für schwergradige Panikpathologie und andere psychische Störungen auszeichnen und demzufolge von Outcome-bezogenen Präventionen (ergänzend zu Panik-spezifischer Intervention) profitieren könnten. Zukünftige Studien sollten die vorliegenden Befunde replizieren und die Effektivität gezielter Präventivinterventionen bei Personen mit erhöhtem Risiko für PS und andere psychische Störungen testen.:CONTENT 0 Synopsis 10 1 Introduction 13 1.1 Current challenges in clinical psychology 13 1.2 Psychological models of mental disorders 13 1.3 Diagnostic approaches to psychopathology 15 1.4 Methodological issues 16 1.5 Preventive and early treatment interventions 17 2 Panic pathology 18 2.1 Definitions 18 2.2 Epidemiology 19 2.3 Etiology 20 2.4 Physiological, neurobiological, and genetic findings 21 2.5 Unresolved issues 22 3 Aims 24 4 Methods 26 5 Study I: Associations of fearful spells and panic attacks with incident anxiety, depressive, and substance use disorders: A 10-year prospective-longitudinal community study of adolescents and young adults 27 5.1 Abstract 27 5.2 Introduction 27 5.3 Materials and methods 28 5.4 Results 30 5.5 Discussion 35 6 Study II: Characteristics of initial fearful spells and their associations with DSM-IV panic attacks and panic disorder in adolescents and young adults from the community 37 6.1 Abstract 37 6.2 Introduction 37 6.3 Materials and methods 38 6.4 Results 41 6.5 Discussion 43 7 Study III: Risk factors for fearful spells and panic: A 10-year prospective-longitudinal study among adolescents and young adults 47 7.1 Abstract 47 7.2 Introduction 47 7.3 Materials and methods 49 7.4 Results 52 7.5 Discussion 60 8 Study IV: Does help-seeking alter the risk for incident psychopathology in adolescents and young adults with and without fearful spells or panic attacks? Findings from a 10-year prospective-longitudinal community study 63 8.1 Abstract 63 8.2 Introduction 63 8.3 Materials and methods 64 8.4 Results 66 8.5 Discussion 70 9 General discussion 73 9.1 Summary and discussion of main findings 73 9.2 Preventive interventions among individuals with panic pathology 75 9.3 Research implications 77 10 Conclusions 78 11 References 79 12 Appendix 94 12.1 Acknowledgements 94 12.2 Erklärung zu den Eigenanteilen an einzelnen Publikationen 95 12.3 Eigenständigkeitserklärung 96