<p>The aim of this thesis is to study the role of banking in society and the effect of the</p> <p>interbank market on the performance of the banking system.</p> <p>It starts by reviewing</p> <p>several studies conducted on empirical banking networks and highlighting their salient</p> <p>features in the context of modern network theory. A simulated network resembling the</p> <p>characteristics documented in the empirical studies is then built and its resilience is</p> <p>analyzed with a particular emphasis in documenting the crucial role played by highly</p> <p>interconnected banks.</p> <p>It is our belief that the study of systemic risk and contagion in a banking system</p> <p>is an integral part to the study of the economic role of banks themselves. Thus the</p> <p>current work focuses on the fundamentals of banking and aims at identifying the</p> <p>necessary drivers for a dynamical setup of the interbank market.</p> <p>Through an agent–based model, we address the issues of bank formation, bank runs</p> <p>and the emergence of an interbank market. Starting with heterogeneous individuals,</p> <p>bank formation is viewed as an emergent phenomenon arising to meet the needs for</p> <p>investment opportunities in face of uncertain liquidity preferences. When banks work</p> <p>in isolation (no interbank market), in the long run and through a long experience with</p> <p>bank failures, banking turns into a monopoly or a market with few players.</p> <p>By equipping banks with their own learning tools and allowing an interbank market</p> <p>to develop, fewer bank failures and a less concentrated banking system are witnessed.</p> <p>In addition, through a scenario analysis, it is demonstrated that allowing banks to</p> <p>interact does not weaken the banking system in almost all the cases, and improves</p> <p>the performance on multiple occasions.</p> <p>The work is concluded by studying the effects of a banking system on individuals</p> <p>and the economy in what is called social measures. We establish that the effects</p> <p>of banking on social measures such as consumption level, consumption inequality</p> <p>between individuals, long term investment and economic waste, varies significantly</p> <p>based on the structure of the society.</p> / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Die Umsetzung einer effektiven Klimapolitik ermöglicht die Verringerung von Treibhausgasemissionen und damit die Eindämmung des Klimawandels. Eine solche Politik hat jedoch negative Auswirkungen auf die direkt oder indirekt in der fossilen Industrie tätigen Akteure, wenn deren Vermögensgegenstände wertlos werden (auch „Asset Stranding“ genannt). Diese Arbeit leistet einen Beitrag zum Verständnis der Wechselwirkung zwischen Klimapolitik und Asset Stranding: Sie untersucht angebotsseitige Politikmaßnahmen in der fossilen Brennstoffindustrie, das Ausmaß und die Verteilung von Asset Stranding auf Ebene der Anlagenbesitzer im Energiesektor und die Wechselwirkungen zwischen Asset Stranding, Erwartungen über Klimapolitik und systemischen Finanzkrisen. Darüber hinaus gibt die Arbeit einen Überblick über die Literatur im Bereich Klimaökonomie zu Asset Stranding und zu entgangenen Gewinnen der Produzenten fossiler Brennstoffe aufgrund von Klimapolitik. Die Arbeit besteht aus fünf Artikeln (Kapitel 2-6), die von einer allgemeinen Einleitung und einer Schlussfolgerung umschlossen werden. / The implementation of effective climate policies facilitates reducing greenhouse gas emissions and thereby mitigating climate change. Such policies, however, have adverse effects on stakeholders directly or indirectly engaged in the fossil industry if they find the value of their assets "stranded". This thesis contributes to our understanding of the interaction between climate policies and asset stranding: It studies supply-side policies in the upstream fossil fuel extraction industry, the extent and distribution of stranded assets at the asset owner level in the power sector, and the interaction of asset stranding, expectations of climate policies, and financial systemic crises. Further, the thesis surveys the climate economics literature on stranded assets and fossil fuel producers' lost profits due to climate policies. The thesis is a compilation of five articles (Chapters 2-6) encased by a general introduction and a conclusion.

Widespread cross-border securities trading have led to the internationalization of securities markets. No one seriously disputes that such securities dealings require regulation, but there is no academic consensus on the best normative approach to such regulation. The academic debate initially focused on whether regulatory competition or cooperation constitutes the better model. However, the debate seems to have evolved to adopt a hybrid model combining the virtues of these two approaches. ‘Harmonization’ constitutes the dominant hybrid model. Nevertheless, the implementation of the harmonization model has barely received any attention in the literature. The aim of this thesis is hence two-fold: first, justify why harmonization should be the preferred model for the regulation of international securities markets; and second, develop, applying an international trade regulation perspective, a regulatory framework to implement the harmonization model using the World Trade Organization and General Agreement on Trade in Services (WTO/GATS) framework.

Widespread cross-border securities trading have led to the internationalization of securities markets. No one seriously disputes that such securities dealings require regulation, but there is no academic consensus on the best normative approach to such regulation. The academic debate initially focused on whether regulatory competition or cooperation constitutes the better model. However, the debate seems to have evolved to adopt a hybrid model combining the virtues of these two approaches. ‘Harmonization’ constitutes the dominant hybrid model. Nevertheless, the implementation of the harmonization model has barely received any attention in the literature. The aim of this thesis is hence two-fold: first, justify why harmonization should be the preferred model for the regulation of international securities markets; and second, develop, applying an international trade regulation perspective, a regulatory framework to implement the harmonization model using the World Trade Organization and General Agreement on Trade in Services (WTO/GATS) framework.

Le risque systémique menaçant le système financier est une préoccupation majeure pour les régulateurs. Les indicateurs adéquats de risque systémique devraient vraiment les aider à accomplir les lois réglementaires appropriées. La thèse propose un modèle dynamique du système bancaire pour calculer un indicateur de risque systémique de deux composantes :La probabilité d'un évènement déclencheur qui provient de la baisse des prix des actifs, et les pertes correspondantes dans le système Financier.La thèse prouve également l'existence et l'unicité de deux modèles d'équilibre de compensation : Le premier avec un modèle de différentes hiérarchies de dette et le second modèle avec plusieurs stratégies de liquidation / Systemic risk threatening the financial system is a major concern for regulators. Adequate indicators of systemic risk would help them perform appropriate regulatory laws.The thesis proposes a dynamic model of banking system to calculate a systemic risk indicator of two components : The probability of a triggering event originated from external asset price decline, and the corresponding losses through the financial system. The thesis also proves the existence and uniqueness of two clearing equilibrium: the first deals with a model of différent debt seniorities, the second with a model of several illiquid asset following a proportional liquidation strategy.

In the thesis we perform analysis of systemic risk in the financial and energy sector in Europe. As the econometric tool for estimating dependencies across the subjects we employ factor copula model with GAS dynamics of Oh & Patton (2013b). We apply this model to daily CDS spreads. Based on the estimated results we perform Monte Carlo simulations in order to obtain future values of CDS spreads and measure probability of systemic events. We conclude that substantially higher systemic risk is present within the financial sector. We also find that the most systemic companies from both sectors come from Spain. JEL Classification C53, C55, C58, G17 Keywords Credit Default Swap, Energy Sector, Factor Copula, Financial Sector, Generalized Autore- gressive Score Model, Systemic Risk Author's e-mail matej.nevrla@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail barunik@fsv.cuni.cz

This thesis focuses on the link between financial system and sovereign debt crises through sovereign support to banks on one hand and banks' exposures to weak sovereigns on the other. After illustrating the main relationships on the recent financial crisis, we construct an agent-based network model of an artificial financial system allowing us to analyse the effects of state support on systemic stability and the feedback loops of risk transfer back into the financial system. First, the model is tested with various parameter settings in Monte Carlo simulations and second, it is calibrated to the real world data using a unique dataset put together from various sources. Our analyses yield the following key results: Firstly, in the short term, all the support measures improve the systemic stability. Secondly, in the longer run, the effects of state support depend on several parameters but still there are settings in which it significantly mitigates the systemic crisis. Finally, there are differences among the effects of the different types of support measures.

La thèse traite de differents aspects des crises financières et de leur gestion par les régulateurs. Les systèmes financiers complexes, tel le réseau interbancaire, peuvent être modélisés par une approche de type réseau, pour calculer la propagation des faillites et modéliser le risque systémique. Partant d'un réseau d'agents identiquement capitalisés, l'impact d'un ratio de capitalisation est testé selon l'horizon de maximisation des profits des agents. Performante lorsque les agents optimisent en horizon infini, la prévention du risque systémique par ce ratio peut créer d'importants problèmes de liquidité lorsque les agents sont myopes. L'effet des taux d'intérêts sur les bulles de crédit est analysé en partant d'un modèle basé sur une économie de production, dans laquelle les entreprises font face à de rares opportunités d'investissement. Lorsqu'elles investissent, ces entreprises ont recours à de la dette court-terme, limitée à une partie de leur valeur boursière. Dans ce modèle générant des bulles sur les prix des firmes, les taux d'intérêts sur la dette n'ont que peu d'effets sur les prix des firmes. En outre, des réserves sont émises concernant la présence de véritables bulles dans les prix vis-à-vis des concepts historiques. Le précédent modèle est étendu en introduisant une part de dette à long-terme dans le capital des firmes. Dans ce cadre, les valeurs boursières des firmes sont très réactives au taux d'intérêt, étant même discontinues lors de chocs de taux persistants. Par ailleurs, l'économie de production peut atteindre un état bullier: les prix des firmes reflètent les gains de capital uniquement dus à la dette. / Complex financial systems, such as the interbank network, can be naturally captured using a network approach. This allows to calculate contamination of defaults and to model systemic risk. Our network is composed of identically capitalized agents. The effect of a capitalization ratio is determined depending on the maximization horizon of the agents: short-term, myopic or long-term. When agents optimize their payoffs in the long-run, the capitalization ratio is fully effective and prevents systemic risk. However, when agents adopt a myopic behavior, the capitalization ratio may trade systemic risk for liquidity scarcity. Starting from a production economy, in which firms face stochastic investment opportunities, we study the impact of the interest rates on bubbles in firms' prices. Capital of firms is exclusively made of equity, but when facing an investment opportunity, firms may borrow. Precisely, firms access short-term debts, and the amount of the debt is limited to a fraction of the price of their equities. This model seems to recreate bubbles on firms' prices. Unfortunately, interest rates do not affect prices to a large extent, and we may question whether prices of firms include a bubble component, with respect to the standard definition of bubbles: the discounted sum of the incoming cash flows. This previous model is extended by allowing firms to have a permanent debt. Actually, capital of firms is composed of equity and debt. In this case, firms' prices are very sensitive to interest rates, and may be discontinuous when interest rate shocks last over the periods. This model also exhibits a purely bubbly state: prices of firms only represent capitals profits generated by debts, there is no equity.

L’expérience de la « Grande Récession » a conduit économistes et praticiens à porter une attention particulière àla stabilité financière,mais aussi, dans la perspective de sortie de crise, aux moyens de financer l’émergence d’unnouveau modèle de croissance plus durable.Dans ce contexte, notre thèse se propose d’apprécier l’influence de laconcurrence bancaire sur la stabilité et sur l’efficience, afin d’éclairer le débat sur le degré de concurrence optimalen Europe. À cet effet, on étudie, tout d’abord, les effets de la concurrence bancaire sur l’instabilité financière, ense saisissant du concept de risque systémique. Cela nous conduit à mener à bien deux études distinctes : l’uneportant sur la répartition du risque systémique entre entités financières, l’autre sur la procyclicité financière.Dansles deux cas, nous concluons à l’existence d’un lien positif entre concurrence et stabilité. Nous nous intéressonsensuite à la question de la stabilité en termes d’efficacité de la politique de stabilisationmonétaire. Dans ce cadre,on met en évidence que la concurrence bancaire améliore l’efficacité de deux canaux de transmission : le canal destaux d’intérêt et le canal du crédit bancaire. L’insuffisance de l’intégration bancaire européenne, dont témoignel’hétérogénéité de la concurrence, s’avère ainsi un facteur explicatif de la fragmentation observée de la zone euro.Finalement, nous considérons la possibilité que la croissance économique puisse être fonction de la concurrencebancaire. À cet effet, on montre d’abord que cette dernière aurait théoriquement deux effets contradictoires sur lacroissance économique, avant finalement, de faire valoir empiriquement que la concurrence bancaire exerce, enEurope, des effets négatifs sur la croissance économique, en particulier en freinant la croissance de la productivitéglobale des facteurs. Nos travaux accréditent donc l’idée que stimuler la concurrence conduit à un arbitrage entrestabilité et efficience. / The experience of the “Great Recession” has led economists and policymakers to pay particular attention tofinancial stability. It also lead them to think how to get out of this recession, and particularly on the meansof financing the emergence of a new, more sustainable growth model. In this context, this thesis studies theinfluence of bank competition on stability and efficiency in order to shed light on the debate about the optimallevel of bank competition in Europe. For this purpose, we first study the effects of bank competition on financialinstability by focusing on the concept of systemic risk. This leads us to undertake two distinct studies: onefocusing on the distribution of systemic risk between financial institutions; the other on financial procyclicality.In both cases, we conclude that a positive link between competition and stability does exist.We then focus on thequestion of stability in terms of the effectiveness of the monetary stabilisation policy. In this respect, we show thatbank competition improves the efficiency of two channels of monetary transmission: the interest rate and thebank lending channels. Therefore, the lack of European banking integration, highlighted by the heterogeneity ofbank competition, is one factor that explains the fragmentation that can be observed in the Eurozone. Finally, weconsider the possibility that economic growth may be a function of bank competition. To do this, we first showhow competition could impact economic growth in theory, and find two opposing effects. We then demonstrateempirically that bank competition has negative effects on economic growth, in particular by decreasing totalfactor productivity growth. Our work hence supports the idea that stimulating competition leads to a trade-offbetween stability and efficiency.

Le sujet principal de cette thèse est la physique des verres de spin. Les verres de spin ont été introduits au début des années 70 pour décrire alliages magnétiques diluées. Ils ont désormais été considerés pour comprendre le comportement de liquides sousrefroidis. Parmis les systèmes qui peuvent être décrits par le langage des systèmes desordonnés, on trouve les problèmes d’optimisation combinatoire. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous considérons les modèles de verre de spin avec intéraction de Kac pour investiguer la phase de basse température des liquides sous-refroidis. Dans les chapitres qui suivent, nous montrons comment certaines caractéristiques des modèles de verre de spin peuvent être obtenues à partir de résultats de la théorie des matrices aléatoires en connection avec la statistique des valeurs extrêmes. Dans la dernière partie de la thèse, nous considérons la connexion entre la théorie desverres de spin et la science computationnelle, et présentons un nouvel algorithme qui peut être appliqué à certains problèmes dans le domaine des finances. / The main subject of this thesis is the physics of spin glasses. After their introduction in the 70s in order to describe dilute magnetic alloys, spin-glass models have been considered prototype models to understand the behavior of supercooled liquids. Among the systems that can be described and analyzed using the language of disordered systems, there are problems of combinatorial optimization. In the first part of the thesis, we consider spin-glass models with Kac interactions in order to investigate the supercooled phase of glass-forming liquids. Afterwards, we show how some features of spin-glass models can be described by ubiquitous results of Random Matrix Theory in connection with Extreme Value Statistics. Finally, from the interaction of spin-glass theory and computer science, we put forward a new algorithm of immediate application in Financial problems.