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No. of bitstreams: 1 ronaldotrogodealmeida.pdf: 1648591 bytes, checksum: 8908c04560a36cd8ba7b3e2a5858d5a0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-15 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Este trabalho teve por objetivo analisar a relação entre incerteza inflacionária e transparência do banco central dentro do período de metas de inflação, de julho de 2003 a maio de 2010. Para tanto, foram realizados dois desenvolvimentos teóricos, em que no primeiro se fez uso do desenvolvimento de Demertzis e Hallet (2007) com o arcabouço teórico da curva de oferta de Lucas como restrição, enquanto o segundo utilizou o arcabouço teórico da curva de Phillips novo-keynesiana que, além de contar com a função perda do banco central, incorpora a função perda dos agentes, passando estes a serem afetados diretamente pelas decisões da autoridade monetária. Cabe ressaltar que nos desenvolvimentos realizados houve uma modificação crucial em relação à literatura no que tange a importância da transparência no ambiente econômico, usualmente avaliada sobre a trajetória das variáveis econômicas e suas variâncias, conforme resultados de Demertzis e Hallet (2007). Contudo, nesta dissertação, a importância da transparência incide essencialmente sobre a incerteza dos agentes econômicos em relação à inflação futura através dos erros de previsão destes, baseado fundamentalmente nos pressupostos de Lahiri e Sheng (2010), em que os agentes econômicos no caso brasileiro são representados pelos participantes da pesquisa Focus. Dado o arcabouço utilizado no primeiro modelo, as relações teóricas encontradas não apontaram importância da transparência sobre a incerteza inflacionária dos indivíduos, sendo esta medida afetada essencialmente pelos choques de oferta da economia. No entanto, no que concerne ao exercício empírico, os resultados sugerem que uma parcela substancial da variabilidade observada na incerteza individual não é explicada pela variação observada nos choques de oferta, havendo, portanto, a possibilidade de que outros fatores possam ser incorporados, uma vez que o modelo teórico sugere que, caso os agentes não enfrentem problemas de comunicação com a autoridade monetária, os choques de oferta deveriam ser a origem da incerteza individual. Desta forma, existe espaço para explorarmos o problema considerando um novo arcabouço teórico representado pela curva de Phillips novo-keynesiana, que permitiu a inserção da discussão da transparência sobre a incerteza inflacionária dos agentes. Os resultados empíricos comprovaram as relações teóricas apresentadas, ou seja, a variável referente à transparência política do banco central foi assaz importante na explicação da incerteza inflacionária dos agentes durante o período de interesse. / This study aimed to analyze the relation between inflation uncertainty and transparency of the central bank within the period of inflation targeting, from July 2003 to May 2010. Therefore, there were two theoretical developments, in which the first was made use of development Demertzis and Hallet (2007) with the theoretical framework of the Lucas supply curve as restriction, while the second used the theoretical framework of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve, in addition to the central bank’s loss function, incorporates loss function of the agents, passing these to be directly affected by the decisions of the monetary authority. Note that the developments made there was a crucial change from the literature regarding the importance of transparency in the economic environment, usually evaluated on the trajectory of economic variables and their variances, according to results of Demertzis and Hallet (2007). However, in this work, the importance of transparency essentially concerns the uncertainty of economic agents regarding future inflation through the forecast errors of these fundamentally based on the assumptions of Lahiri and Sheng (2010), in which economic agents in the Brazilian case are represented by the research participants Focus. Given the framework used in the first model, the theoretical relationships found not pointed importance of transparency on inflation uncertainty of individuals, and this measure is affected primarily by supply shocks in the economy. However, regarding the empirical exercise, the results suggest that a substantial portion of the variability in the individual uncertainty is not explained by variation in the supply shocks observed, and therefore there is the possibility that other factors can be incorporated once the theoretical model suggests that if the agents do not face communication problems with the monetary authority, the supply shocks should be the origin of individual uncertainty. Thus, there is room to explore the problem considering a new theoretical framework represented by the new-Keynesian Phillips curve, which allowed the insertion of the discussion of transparency on inflation uncertainty of the agents. The empirical results confirm the theory with the relations, that is, the variable on the central bank policy transparency was quite important in explaining inflation uncertainty of the agents during the period of interest.

Dissertação sobre o regime jurídico das infrações e sanções administrativas aplicadas pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional e o Banco Central do Brasil em conformidade com a legislação do Sistema Financeiro Nacional, especialmente a Lei 4.595/64. Apresenta o regime de distribuição da função legislativa a partir da Constituição Federal de 1998, o sistema jurídico das infrações e sanções administrativas e a diferenciação destas em relação a outros atos derivados do denominado poder de polícia. Em seguida, analisa a recepção pela Constituição Federal de 1988 do modelo normativo trazido pela Lei 4.595/64 e os limites da discricionariedade administrativa para aplicação de infrações e sanções administrativas à luz dos princípios da legalidade e da tipicidade apresentados pela doutrina. / Dissertation on the legal regime of the administrative infractions and penalties imposed by the National Monetary Council and the Central Bank of Brazil in accordance with the rules of the Financial System, especially the Law 4.595/64. Displays the distribution scheme of the legislative function from the Federal Constitution of 1998, the system of legal administrative infractions and penalties and differentiation of these acts in relation to others derived from the so called police powers. It then goes through the reception by the Constitution of 1988 of the normative model issued by Law 4.595/64 and the limits of the administrative authorities discretion for application of administrative infractions and sanctions in the light of the principles of legality and typicality as presented by the doctrine.

Aiming to speak to broader debates about the nature of state power in relation to the economy this thesis concentrates on central bank agency and monetary governability. More specifically, it focuses on a single case: The agency of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the making, unmaking, and re-making of monetary governability in the euro area from 1999 through 2014. This choice is motivated by the euro area representing a unique ‘natural experiment’ in establishing monetary governability from scratch under conditions of 21st century financialised capitalism. The thesis is divided into two parts. Chapters one and two develop an original analytical and conceptual framework for the study of central bank agency. Starting out from the premise that governability is not a natural feature of the economy but needs to be actively established, I argue that any attempt to answer the question of the ECB’s role in that process has to account for the fundamental hybridity of central bank agency both as a central bureaucratic authority and as a bank, as well as for its multidimensionality as it addresses different governability challenges posed by different audiences. It is on the basis of these inductively won observations that I embrace the theoretical vocabulary of performativity, conceptualising governability as a performative effect of the interactions between the ECB and its audiences. The arrangements that govern these interactions are described, using a Foucauldian concept, as ‘apparatuses’. On that basis, the second part of the thesis comprises three empirical chapters on the financial apparatus of monetary policy implementation, the communicative apparatus of expectation management, and the ideological apparatus of monetary trust. The sixth chapter brings the analysis of the three apparatuses up to date by focusing on three key episodes from the recent financial and economic crisis. / Doctorat en Sciences politiques et sociales / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The paper investigates the role of central bank communication for monetary policy implementation. Firstly, we use a multi-disciplinary approach to disentangle several problematic contingencies of central bank communication, analyzing from this perspective the role of complex phenomena such as public opinion, perceptions, beliefs, framing, subjective probability, rhetoric, persuasion, cognitive limits and distortions, psychological and cultural biases etc. The result is a comprehensive survey of theory and practice in central bank communication, from the perspective of political science, social-psychology and media studies. Secondly, we attempt to draw on more psychological realism to central bank communication in the context of financial crises, using a parallel with risk management in the case of natural disasters. Thirdly, we conceive central bank information as a public good, thereby we construct a novel schematic model of supply and demand based on two respective behavioral logistic functions, in order to derive central bank informational equilibrium. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Cette thèse étudie deux grandes problématiques économiques étant étroitement liées. D’une part, il est question d’analyser à quelles conditions les taux de change présentent des relations de long terme communes. D’autre part, une analyse en profondeur concernant les investissements sur devises connus sous le terme anglais de « carry trades » est proposée. Le taux de change étant un des déterminants du rendement de ces investissements, le lien entre les deux problématiques apparaît clairement. Ces problématiques sont traitées à travers la mobilisation d’outils théoriques et empiriques. Ce travail aboutit à plusieurs conclusions. Concernant les mouvements communs de long terme entre les taux de change, ils dépendent du degré d’intégration des économies ainsi que de la similarité de leurs politiques monétaires. Concernant les investissements sur devises, cette thèse démontre que les banques centrales des petites économies ouvertes ont tout intérêt à fixer une cible d’inflation ainsi qu’une cible d’afflux de capitaux afin d’éviter l’effet déstabilisateur des « carry trades ». Cette politique sera efficace uniquement si la banque centrale est transparente concernant ses cibles de long terme. Pour finir, après la crise financière de 2008, la banque centrale Néo-Zélandaise a changé de comportement vis-à-vis des « carry trades » en provenance du Japon. En effet, après la crise, la banque centrale y a répondu de manière à stabiliser l’économie. Cependant, les investissements en provenance des Etats-Unis sont toujours déstabilisateurs pour l’économie Néo-Zélandaise, surtout lorsque les Etats-Unis utilisent une politique d’assouplissement quantitatif. / This thesis investigates two main issues in economics. On the one hand, we investigate under which conditions cointegration between exchange rates is likely to appear. On the other hand, this thesis proposes to investigate how carry trades affect small open economies. Given that the exchange rate is a main determinant of carry trades’ returns, these two topics are obviously linked. These two issues are investigated both through theoretical and empirical tools. Concerning long run comovements between exchange rates, this thesis reveals that they depend on the degree of linkages between two economies and on the way central banks set their monetary policies. Concerning carry trades, this work sheds light on the fact that small open economies central banks should have both an inflation and a capital inflows target to suppress the destabilizing effect of carry trades. Moreover, such a policy would be efficient only if the central banks are transparent concerning their long run targets. Finally, in this thesis we show that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has changed its reaction to Japan-sourced carry trades after the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). Indeed, after the GFC, the RBNZ responded in a stabilizing way to Japan-sourced carry trades. However, after the GFC, the RBNZ still responded in a destabilizing way to US-sourced carry trades. Our work also reveals that carry trades destabilize even more New-Zealand’s economy when the US are engaged in a quantitative easing policy.

The aim of this thesis is to analyze impacts of monetary policy of Czech national bank on the Czech economy since 1993 to 2015. Last few years monetary policy has been often discussed topic in Czech republic. Instruments of monetary policy have been changing and it will be changed again. In this conditions the analysis of entire period of CNB existence is very attractive for author. The theoretical part of the thesis deals with economic theory of central bank. In this part the thesis talks in detail about the regimes of monetary policy and it is focusing on the inflation targeting. The practical part of the thesis deals with analysis of monetary policy in every year in terms of meeting the targets and their impact on the economy. The conclusion of this analysis is to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy from 1993 to the present.

This master thesis is based on analyses of the Cypriot banking sector from 2010 to 2016. The aim is to describe the effects of the recent financial crisis in Cyprus to locally operating banks, to assess the assistance provided to Cypriot banks and especially to analyze the development of systemically important Cypriot banking institutions, namely the Bank of Cyprus Group, Cooperative Central Bank, Hellenic Bank and RCB Bank Ltd with emphasis on the most important banking institution in Cyprus. The work draws mainly from published financial results of the systemic banks and from the Central Bank of Cyprus representing the consolidated banking sector. Furthermore, for the purpose of this study was used the Eurostat database, EBA and the IMF periodicals, along with the websites of the credit rating agencies.

This work is about central bank independence and about advantages and risks resulted from this position. The beginnig of the work is about history of central banking in the world and in our republic. The next capture is dedicated to the question of necessity of central banks and it uses especially the work of F.A.Hayek. It also describes his suggestion to implement the competition between private issuers of money. The last and the largest chapter is about central bank independence. After the definition of independence, there is a part concerned types of independence, mainly the legal and the actual one. The level of independence can be usually measured by few indexes. The way how to calculate them is also in the text of this work. Final part of the work is aimed on advantages and risks resulting from the independent status of central bank. The main advantage is represented by elimination of time inconsistency problem, on the other hand the main risk is the absence of responsibility of central bank for her policy.

The accession to the European Monetary Union is fundamentally changing the role of the Czech national bank. Aim of this work is to describe and evaluate this new role of the CNB in connection with the transfer of its former powers to the ECB. The theoretical part of the work deals with the role of central banking in general, the role of the CNB before the accession to the EMU and the role of ECB in monetary union. The work reviews compliance with the conditions required for the accession to the EMU. Further it focuses on the analysis of CNB monetary policy in recent years, particularly its interest rates policy. In view of the future situation in the field of monetary policy the work draws on the experience of Slovakia after its entry into the euro zone and respondes to the question of whether uniform monetary policy is equally applicable to all member states of the euro area by using the Theory of Optimum Currency Area. The work also analyzes the actions of the ECB and the CNB caused by the current economic crisis.

The diploma work deals with the problems of financial crises, concretely with the Icelandic financial crisis in 2008. The main target of the work is to describe the course, the causes and the consequences of the financial crisis. The fundamental informations about the financial crises are summarized in the theoretical part. The descriptive part deals with the development of the icelandic economy before crisis and with the course of the financial crisis. The final part is devoted to the analysis of the icelandic financial crisis, for that is used the general model of systemic financial crises.