Este trabalho busca revisitar as teorias existentes sobre reformas econômicas e democratização, em especial no que concerne às reformas financeiras liberalizantes. De acordo com o saber convencional, normalmente essas reformas afetam de modo negativo as democracias, colocando em perigo a construção de boas instituições para a sua consolidação. Ao analisar de forma mais detida a relação entre as reformas financeiras levadas a cabo pelo Banco Central do Brasil, a partir de uma conjuntura crítica ocorrida no início de 1999, e a padronização de instituições para o incremento da Supervisão Bancária, oriunda do BIS ? Banco para Compensações Internacionais, resolvemos questionar a validade universal dessa literatura ao argumentar que a construção de redes de proteção para o sistema financeiro brasileiro, num contexto de crise e oportunidades, foi possibilitado por uma maior cooperação entre esse organismo financeiro internacional e a autoridade monetária local. A contrapartida para o reforço de autoridade do Banco Central e a conseqüente implementação de instituições para a reforma financeira, no Brasil, foi um aumento da transparência das ações da autoridade monetária, concomitante a uma melhoria em seu processo de prestação de contas e responsabilização pública. A reconstrução das trajetórias que levaram a essa convergência entre um organismo internacional e uma autoridade local, numa democracia emergente de mercado, parece ser a chave para o entendimento das peculiaridades que redundaram nas falhas dos modelos unificadores de institucionalização, como aqueles preconizados pelo Consenso de Washington e adotados por outras organizações financeiras, por exemplo, o Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) / This thesis aims to review the well-established theories of economic reforms and democratization. The object will focus especially on the so called \"liberal financial reforms\". According to conventional wisdom, these reforms normally affect democracies deeply and jeopardize the building of sound institutions towards their consolidation. We decided to debate the universal validity of this conventional literature using the argument that the institutional building of safety nets for the Brazilian financial system - in a context of crisis and opportunities - was possible as a result of the cooperative game between an international financial organization (BIS) and the local monetary authority (BACEN). We will do that by analyzing the relation between these financial reforms led by Brazilian Central Bank more accurately, arising from a critical juncture occurred at the beginning of 1999, and the standardization of institutions for the improvement of banking supervision originated from BIS -Bank for International Settlements. The counterbalance to the reinforcement of central bank authority and the consequent implementation of institutions for the financial reform in Brazil was the increased monetary authority acts transparency and the simultaneous improvement of its mechanisms of political accountability. The study of path sequence that led to the convergence of the intentions of an international organization and a local political authority, in a emerging market democracy, seems to be the key to the comprehension of the peculiarities that resulted in the failure of the remedies that recommended a \"single model\" for the success of these reforms in new democracies, like the ones prescribed by the Washington Consensus, which were adopted by several organizations, including the International Monetary Fund - IMF

Este trabalho presta-se a analisar a adequação da execução da política monetária pelos Bancos Centrais, com enfoque especial dado ao Banco Central do Brasil e ao arcabouço normativo atualmente em vigor sobre a matéria. A necessidade de desenvolver este tema sobreveio da verificação, especialmente nas duas últimas décadas, de um distanciamento dos Bancos Centrais em relação às orientações do Poder Executivo. O regime de metas inflacionárias, tido como o ideal para orientar a atuação dos Bancos Centrais e assegurar a estabilidade da moeda foi assumido como o objetivo-fim da política monetária, em detrimento das previsões constitucionais acerca da promoção do desenvolvimento equilibrado do País, da busca do pleno emprego e da redução das desigualdades sociais. Para a análise desenvolvida, partiu-se do método histórico, por meio do qual foi possível verificar, a partir do Século XIX até o presente, de que forma os Bancos Centrais surgiram e galgaram posições de relevo enquanto agentes do Estado orientados a intervir na economia para fins de promoção social, especialmente a partir do surgimento e consolidação do Direito Econômico como ciência jurídica legitimadora da intervenção estatal. Em seguida, buscou-se explorar as funções dos Bancos Centrais, os instrumentos dos quais dispõem para o exercício da política monetária e a adequação dos objetivos dessa política no contexto da política econômica desenvolvida pelo Estado. Por fim, passou-se à análise do Banco Central do Brasil no que concerne a evolução da execução da política monetária, paralelamente às conquistas sociais e políticas do país, com especial destaque para as décadas de 1960 e 1990. / This work is to examine the appropriateness of implementing monetary policy by central banks, with particular emphasis given to the Central Bank of Brazil and the regulatory framework currently in force on the matter. The need to develop this theme came to check, especially in the last two decades, from a distance of central banks in relation to Executive guidelines. Inflation targeting system, seen as the ideal to drive central banks actions and ensure currency stability was adopted as the end goal of monetary policy at the expense of constitutional statements upon balanced development of the country, in pursuit of comprehensive employment and the reduction of social inequalities. For the developed analysis, historical method has been adopted which enabled the understanding from the nineteenth century until present days upon how Central Banks emerged and have risen to prominent positions as agents of the Stated driven to intervene in economy for social advancement, especially since the emergence and consolidation of Economic Law and legal science legitimating state intervention. Then Central Banks central banks functions were explored, theirs tools for monetary policy undertaking and the adequacy of such objectives in the context of economic policy developed by the state. Finally, we have assessed Brazil Central Bank in regards of monetary policy implementation development, along with social and political local achievements, with particular emphasis to the 60s and 90s.

La réalisation et le maintien de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire, évaluée par l'écart entre les résultats et les annonces officielles de politique (Gilles [1992]), est devenue une tâche cruciale pour l'Autorité monétaire, lorsque, à partir des années 1980, il a été abordée, dans la littérature économique, la question du central banking (Gilles & Bastidon [2014], Ferguson et Schularick [2008]). Bien que les avantages de la crédibilité soient évidents, ses déterminants le sont moins. En effet, les dernières décennies sont marquées par de profondes mutations dans la gouvernance des Banques Centrales. En particulier, la délégation de la politique monétaire à une Banque Centrale indépendante vis-à-vis des pouvoirs publics est devenue un des principaux déterminants de la crédibilité dans les économies avancées (Goodfriend [2012]; Bordo & Orphanides [2013]; Persson & Tabellini, [1993]). Cependant, pour les Pays en développement, en revanche, le débat sur la nécessité et la faisabilité des mécanismes d'engagement n’est pas tranché, eu égards des caractéristiques spécifiques (Kugman & al [1992], Assoumou-Ella & Bastidon [2015]). En utilisant un modèle simple et une fonction de perte de la banque centrale similaire à celles de Ball [1999] ou Cavoli [2008], nous comparons deux régimes de change différents afin de déterminer lequel des cas est le plus susceptible d'inciter les gouvernements à intensifier la lutte contre la corruption, tout en maintenant l’objectif de stabilité des prix. Un régime d’ancrage crédible conduit à une taxation élevée et un faible niveau de corruption et d’inflation, mais également à un niveau de croissance faible. Un régime monétaire indépendant sans ancrage, en revanche, conduit généralement à un niveau de corruption plus élevée. Cependant, lorsque l’indépendance de la banque centrale est assez forte, le régime monétaire indépendant sans ancrage peut également conduire à moins de corruption, plus de production et de dépenses publiques, bien qu’avec une inflation plus élevée qu’un régime monétaire avec ancrage. Ces résultats semblent indiquer que dans le cas des Pays en développement, l’indépendance de la banque centrale associée à l’ancrage du taux de change ne serait ni une condition nécessaire, ni une condition suffisante à la stabilité des prix. / Achieving and maintaining the credibility of monetary policy, measured by the gap between outcomes and official announcements of policy (Gilles [1992]), has become a crucial task for the Monetary Authority when, from the 1980s, was tackled in the economic literature, the issue of central banking (Bastidon & Gilles [2014]). Indeed, the delegation of monetary policy to an independent central bank vis-à-vis the public authority has become a main determinant of credibility in advanced economies (Cukierman [1992], Bordo & Orphanides [2013]). However, its relevance for developing countries due to their specific characteristics (Kugman & al [1992], Assoumou-Ella & Bastidon [2015]) is far from being settled. Using a simple model and a loss of function of the central bank similar to those of Ball [1999] or Cavoli [2008], we compare two different exchange rate regimes to determine which cases are most likely to encourage governments to intensify the fight against corruption, while maintaining the objective of price stability. A credible anchor regime leads to high taxation and low levels of corruption and inflation, but at a low level of growth. An independent monetary regime unanchored, however, usually leads to a higher level of corruption. However, when the independence of the central bank is strong enough, the independent monetary regime unanchored can also lead to less corruption, more production and spending, although with higher inflation a monetary regime with anchor. These results suggest that in the case of developing countries, the independence of the central bank associated with pegged exchange rates would be neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for price stability.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Glauco Freire da Silva.pdf: 966006 bytes, checksum: d00228cce6a7452a1e10ae22ba1027bf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-21 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The purpose of this study is to analyze the actions of the Central Bank of Brazil in the financial crisis of 2008/2009, with reference to the Inflation Targeting Regime. Thus, the methodological procedure was the analysis and systematization of official documents. Is important to note that the Central Bank's actions in the crisis proved to be dubious, as it sought to free up liquidity with the compulsory reserves and, in parallel, withdrawing liquidity from the market to prevent the Selic rate to fall below target. On the other hand, the keeping of interest rates in 2008 showed that the Targeting Regime in Brazil proved to be hard in the period in which the variations in the Selic rate tended to be gradual and flagged. The analysis proposed in the work is presented in four chapters. Initially, the formation of a new consensus in macroeconomics which justifies the use of inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework since the mid 1990s. Then we describe the adoption of inflation targeting regime in Brazil in July 1999. Chapter two describes also the actions the Ministry of Finance with special attention to the role of public banks. Chapter three examines the policy measures of the Central Bank related to the provision of liquidity in domestic currency, especially the compulsory reserves, and liquidity in dollars in the foreign exchange market interventions. It is observed that at this moment the Central Bank maintained the Selic rate unchanged. Finally, we discuss the decision making of the Monetary Authority in relation to the interest rate, such as maintaining the rate in October and December 2008, the decrease between January and July 2009 and interrupted in September / O objetivo deste trabalho consiste em analisar a atuação do Banco Central do Brasil na crise financeira de 2008/2009, tendo como referência o Regime de Metas de Inflação. Para tanto, o procedimento metodológico foi à análise e sistematização de documentos oficiais. Destaca-se que a atuação do Banco Central na crise se mostrou dúbia, na medida em que procurou liberar liquidez com os encaixes compulsórios e, paralelamente, retirou liquidez do mercado para evitar que a taxa Selic caísse abaixo da meta. Por outro lado, a manutenção da taxa de juros em 2008 evidenciou que o Regime de Metas no Brasil se mostrou rígido no período, no qual as variações na taxa Selic tenderam a ser graduais e sinalizadas. A análise proposta no trabalho se apresenta em quatro capítulos. Inicialmente, a formação de um novo consenso na macroeconomia o qual fundamenta a utilização do regime de metas como arcabouço de política monetária desde meados dos anos 1990. Depois, descreve-se a adoção do regime de metas pelo Brasil em julho de 1999. O capítulo dois descreve, ainda, as medidas do Ministério da Fazenda com especial atenção para a atuação dos bancos públicos. O capítulo três analisa as medidas de política do Banco Central relacionadas à oferta de liquidez em moeda doméstica, com destaque para os encaixes compulsórios, e a liquidez em dólares com intervenções no mercado de câmbio. Observa-se que neste primeiro momento o Banco Central manteve a taxa Selic inalterada. Por fim, discute-se a tomada de decisão da Autoridade Monetária em relação à taxa de juros, tal como a manutenção da taxa em outubro e dezembro de 2008, a redução entre janeiro e julho de 2009 e a interrupção em setembro

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Joaquim Tavares Perrelli.pdf: 352748 bytes, checksum: 648c3d5b5458029109e0889fb78da741 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-05-16 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The bank regulation is developed as the financial markets become more complex and sophisticated, consequently increasing its exposition to a greater risk level. Bank supervision is an institution that depends on bank regulation to act, monitoring and inspecting financial institutions, in order to accomplish it aim, financial stability. Basel II agreement incorporates two decades´ concepts, since its previous editions, improving and estabilishing principles for effective supervision and monitoring risk levels according its classification. Its implementation depends however from each evaluated country´s context. In the case study ahead, there are being analysed data and information from World Bank´s research on supervisory structure, budgetary and operational authonomy, among others. So, bank supervision belongs to a proccess and as an activity itself, its evaluation is difficult due to the dynamic nature of the capitalist system. The economies operate in cycles and when economic activity is high, credit operations levels increases too. Between these operations hired during the high level economic activity, there are the operations that will generate troubles when economic activity level becomes lower. So the supervision alternates position between a preventive and corrective set of actions. Its procedures will never be perfect and there will always be financial institutions in trouble so as there will always be financial crisis / A regulação bancária é desenvolvida à medida que os mercados financeiros tornam-se mais complexos e sofisticados em suas operações, e conseqüentemente, ficando mais expostos a riscos. A supervisão bancária é uma instituição que, a partir da regulação da atividade do sistema bancário, fiscaliza e inspeciona as atividades das instituições com o objetivo principal de promover a estabilidade financeira. O acordo de Basiléia II, incorpora os conceitos de mais de duas décadas de acordos anteriores, no estabelecimento de princípios para a supervisão bancaria efetiva e técnicas de monitoramento de riscos bancários. A sua implantação entretanto, depende de diversas etapas e preparação. As atividades de supervisão variam de contexto, conforme cada país analisado. No estudo de caso apresentado adiante estão sendo analisados dados e informações coletados em pesquisas do Banco Mundial e outras entidades acerca da estrutura da supervisão bancária, autonomia operacional e orçamentária além de outras. A partir desses dados e dos textos coletados nas fases da pesquisa, pode se concluir que a supervisão faz parte de um processo, e torna-se de difícil mensuração a partir da própria dinâmica do capitalismo. As economias operam em ciclos, e nos ciclos de alta na atividade econômica ocorre a alta nas operações de crédito. Entre essas operações de crédito do ciclo de alta encontram-se as operações que poderão causar problemas ao sistema no ciclo de baixa. A supervisão portanto alterna entre uma postura preventiva e corretiva. Ela nunca será perfeita em seus procedimentos, sempre ocorrerão problemas com instituições financeiras e crises de mercado

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:52:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Silvio Moura.pdf: 3104342 bytes, checksum: b7f112704d9906e75b491f46318f1c32 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-12 / The exchange rate is a major key due to its myriad consequences it waves on the economy such as: effect on monetary policy, effects on economic growth, effects on the trade balance, among many others. Using a time series sample from January / December 2000/2013 and the variables exchange rate, interest rates and foreign direct investment, econometric tests were modeled trying to build relationships using vector autoregression model (VAR) and co-integrated vectors (VEC). The Central Bank of Brazil and its relation with the agents in the economic has high power to influence the behavior of the exchange rate. Therefore, it is not only a matter of import and export of goods and services. The formation of the exchange rate is much more complex than simple commercial transactions. Due to the high value of the interest rate in Brazil, it is used as a form of arbitration so that the agents have the maximum profit on this issue, which makes targeting the exchange rate price an even more complex process. The results show a positive relationship between the three variables, both in the short and long term. Although the exchange rate showed a low (but positive) effect on foreign direct investment. It is expected, since this type of variable has a greater impact in the long than in the short term. The interest rate has an inverse behavior on the exchange that is when one goes up (down) the other falls (rises). This can be explained due to the different functions that the interest rate has on the economy, not limited only to control the exchange rate / Em termos gerais, taxa cambial representa um dos principais preços de uma economia em razão das várias consequências que provoca: efeitos na política monetária, efeitos sobre o crescimento econômico, efeitos sobre a balança comercial, entre outros. Tendo como base amostral o período de janeiro/2000 a dezembro/2013 e as variáveis câmbio, taxa de juros e investimento direto estrangeiro, foram estabelecidas relações econométricas via modelagem por vetores autorregressivos (VAR) e vetores cointegrados (VEC) para a série temporal em questão. O Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) e sua relação com os agentes econômicos tem alto poder para influenciar no comportamento da taxa de câmbio. Portanto, não se trata apenas de uma relação de importação e exportação de produtos e serviços. A formação da taxa de câmbio é muito mais complexa do que as simples transações comerciais. Como no Brasil a taxa de juros tem valor elevado, ela é utilizada como forma de arbitragem fazendo com que os agentes tenham o máximo de lucro nesta questão, o que torna o direcionamento da taxa de câmbio ainda mais impreciso. Os resultados apontam para uma relação positiva entre as três variáveis, tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo, embora o câmbio tenha apresentado um efeito baixo (mas positivo) no investimento direto estrangeiro. Isso é o que se espera, já que este tipo de variável tem um impacto maior no longo prazo. Já a taxa de juros mostra um comportamento inverso em relação à taxa de câmbio. O fato pode ser explicado em razão das diversas funções que a taxa de juros exerce sobre a economia, não se limitando apenas ao controle da taxa cambial

Les trois chapitres de cette thèse ont pour objectif de contribuer à une meilleure compréhension de la manière dont les politiques non-conventionnelles affectent les prix d’actifs. Ils revisitent également de manière empirique la question de l’impact de l’offre sur les prix d’actifs, et plus généralement des limites imposées à l’arbitrage, des frictions dans la réallocation des portefeuilles. Chaque chapitre présente de nouvelles données permettant de quantifier les mécanismes à l’œuvre dans le cas du programme d’achat d’actifs de l’Eurosystème (APP). Le chapitre 1 propose un modèle de portefeuille simple permettant de penser les mesures non conventionnelles dans un cadre cohérent. Les exercices empiriques confirment l’existence de plusieurs canaux de transmission des prix et évaluent l’impact de l’APP. Le chapitre 2 jette un nouvel éclairage sur le canal du rééquilibrage de portefeuille. Les fortes frictions liées à la réallocation, la forte demande d’“habitat préféré” et le faible niveau de substituabilité entre actifs permettent d’avoir un impact sur les prix, tout en limitant possiblement les retombées sur l’économie. Le chapitre 3 suggère que l’effet des achats de titres passe également si ce n’est en premier lieu par l’augmentation du coût d’emprunt de ces titres, ce qui a des répercussions sur la dispersion des taux du marché monétaire à court terme et pourrait rendre difficile à l’avenir la transmission de la politique monétaire conventionnelle si les taux autrefois considérés comme sans risque et contrôlables par la banque centrale ne pouvaient pas être contrôlés aussi précisément qu’auparavant. / The three chapters contained in this PhD thesis aim at contributing to a better understanding of how unconventional monetary policies and in particular asset purchases affect asset prices. As such, they also revisit the question of the impact of bond supply on bond prices, and more broadly the questions of limits to arbitrage, frictions in portfolio reallocation and the role of intermediaries. Each chapter brings new original data to quantify the effect on bond prices, on the short term rates, and on the portfolio reallocation of investors. Chapter 1 built a simple portfolio model allows to think of them in a consistent framework, and suggests that the type of asset purchased, the degree of risk aversion or how assets covary are important. The empirical exercises confirm the existence of several transmission channels to prices and assess the impact of the European APP. Chapter 2 sheds a new light on portfolio rebalancing in terms of asset classes and shows it is more limited than previously thought. Heavy frictions to reallocation, strong “preferred habitat” demand and low level of substituability between assets allow for price impact of central bank asset purchases but at the same time possibly limit the spillovers on the economy. The main channel through which APP affects price might be even be more indirect that one thought: chapter 3 suggests that it might come from reducing asset supply and increasing the cost of borrowing them. This has repercussions on the dispersion of short term money market rates and might be challenging in the future if rates once considered as risk free and controllable by the central bank cannot be controlled as precisely as before. In other terms, controlling the long end of the yield curve might in part comes at the cost of loosing part of the control on the short end.

本研究以日本央行干預日圓匯率對新台幣匯率的波及效果為研究主題，選擇樣本期間為1999年1月5日至2003年12月31日之日資料做實證分析。本研究選擇日本央行干預外滙的貨幣數量、新台幣與日圓間前一日及前二日的匯率變動率、日本國定假日及日本重大經濟政策訊息為自變數，分析對因變數，也就是新台幣與日圓間匯率變動率有何影響。我們分別採用最小平方法(OLS)迴歸分析與一般化自我迴歸條件異質變異數GARCH(1,1)模型來進行分析，並發現GARCH(1,1)模型在估計上優於最小平方法(OLS) 迴歸分析；另外我們的結果也證實日本央行干預日圓與美元間匯率，在日圓外匯市場大量購買外匯，確實會對新台幣與日圓間匯率變動率造成影響，亦其的確對新台幣與日圓間匯率變動程度有波及效果。 一直以來，國內有關央行干預行為的文獻中，大多探討台灣中央銀行的干預行為，對新台幣與美元間匯率變動的影響，較少有文獻在討論當日本央行透過干預日圓外匯市場，意圖使日圓相對於美元貶值時，新台幣與日圓間匯率的變動程度會因此受到波及。而本文實證研究發現，日本央行在干預日圓匯率時，的確會對新台幣與日圓間的匯率變動率造成影響，也就是說，日本中央銀行干預日圓匯率對新台幣匯率的波及效果是存在的，這對未來在估計新台幣與日圓間匯率變動時，將更能精確的估計新台幣與日圓間匯率變動的程度。 關鍵詞:匯率干預(exchange rate intervention)、日本央行(Japan Central Bank)、 最小平方法(OLS)、一般化自我迴歸條件異質變異數(GARCH)

Never before in history has the amount of international trade been higher or more efficient than it is today. The fastest growing type of trade is the speculative currency trading, searching for instant profit based only on the anticipation of the variations in currency exchange rates. When currency speculation becomes an influential part of the capital flows it becomes harmful and creates instability of currency systems. Exchange rates starts to fluctuate due to the will and anticipation of speculators rather than the economic health of the country associated with the currency. This has led to recurring currency crises all over the world and an increased interest in regulatory mechanisms. One of the most discussed mechanisms proposed to handle this harmful evolution of the foreign exchange markets is the Currency Transaction Tax (CTT). The CTT stipulates a low tax (0.1 per cent) on all currency transaction to curb the incitement of short-term speculation based on a large amount of smaller transactions. The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether an implementation of a CTT is compatible with the EU treaties. This purpose consists of two research questions; whether the CTT is in conformity with the substantive law of the EU, more precisely the free movements of capital, and if the CTT is in conformity with the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the exclusive power of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) over monetary policy. Since this thesis aims to identify if the CTT is in conformity with existing legislation, the traditional doctrinal method is used for identifying and analysing potential difficulties with the CTT and to interpret these provisions in the light of ECJ case law and literature. The thesis concludes that the CTT is in conformity with the EU treaties. It does however require the full cooperation of the ESCB and ECB to achieve the objectives; to create a more stable currency market. The CTT is ready to implement.

The object of the study – Lithuanian monetary policy. The purpose of the work – to estimate the level of achieved objectives of Lithuanian monetary policy and to forecast perspectives after joining to European Union. The main tasks: 1. to investigate the objectives, means and results of monetary policy; 2. to establish the main objectives, means and results of Lithuanian monetary policy during the period from recovering states independence till nowdays; 3. to establish the main objectives, means and results of Lithuanian monetary policy after joining to European Union. Methods of the research – the analysis of the laws, which regulate the activity of the Bank of Lithuania and its monetary policy, analysis of scientific literature, statistical analysis, comparative analysis, logical analysis and synthesis. The period of research is 1993 - 2004 year.