由於經濟社會的發展，促成了都市的緊密生活關係與外部效果的擴大 ，結果將使大都市與相鄰城鎮、郊區形成一個都市化的都會地區。由於都 會區內各地方政府位階不同，必然導致彼此間在職權和轄區方面的衝突， 因此，恐不易透過協調合作方式來解決根本的問題，乃有將台北縣、基隆 市併入台北市，擴大行政區域之議。台北市行政區域擴大後，大台北都會 區將面臨財政收支同時增加的現象。本文研究的目的，即在探討合併後財 政收支的可能能情形，並針對支出大於收入的財政負擔，參酌其他地方政 府之整體區域均衡發展，對中央、省、直轄市間的財政收支劃分預作調整 規劃，輔以收入方面之開源及支出方面之節流擬議，以期解決大台北都會 區之財政困境。

Since the 1970s, Asia has experienced rapid urbanization processes, which are distinct from U.S. society, and the direction of Asian urbanization is more strongly affected by economic globalization. The desakota model, proposed by McGee and Ginsburg in 1991, focuses on how internal domestic and local forces drive the specific rural-urban transformation in Asia. However, the McGee-Ginsburg model does not emphasize the importance of globalization on Asian urbanization. To fill the gap, this study develops a GIS-based CA framework based on the desakota model to not only simulate the unique urbanization processes in Asia but also integrate the influence of globalization into Asian urban dynamics. Three approaches are developed in the CA simulation: 1) physical constraints and land-use classification from remotely sensed images in 1993, 2000, and 2008, are incorporated into micro-scale transformation; 2) population dynamics, shifts of economic activities, and foreign direct investment (FDIs), a representative of the impact of globalization, are applied for multi-scale interconnection; 3) the Monte Carlo mechanism is finally introduced to combine the above two approaches and implement the simulation process. The Taipei metropolitan area, a rapid urbanizing region that highly interacts with the global economy in Asia, is chosen to examine this model. The CA simulation model establishes a strong interaction between FDIs, an indicator representing impacts of globalization, and the dazzling Asian urban model. The combination of multi-scale economic factors and micro-scale land-use transformation also reveals how urban growth of the Taipei metropolis in recent years fits the characterization of the desakota model, and how desakota regions, the growth generators, interact with city cores. As a result, the research not only successfully links the influence of globalization with the desakota model and simulates urban dynamics of Asian cities but also provides scenarios of different FDI inputs for governments to better handle urban growth with global impacts under the deep economic recession since 2007.

現今臺灣地區都市內之工業區不僅面臨低度利用問題，且都市內工業用地 在住宅及商業之競用下，出現所謂廠辦大樓、違規興建之工業住宅等非工 業之使用，這些使用不僅違反都市土地使用分區管制及相關法令之規定， 且令人質疑其使用能否與周圍環境、公共設施負擔相符？此種現象是否顯 示都市內工業區早已失其設置之原義及功能，而一個產業結構如臺北市這 樣的都市，是否仍有工業區設置的必要，因而使筆者對台北市內工業用地 的繼續存在產生質疑，但臺北市與其附近的臺北縣各鄉鎮市間各種產經活 動關係密切，已連成一都會區，若單以臺北市研析，恐有失偏頗，乃以臺 北都會區為範圍，藉其產業結構、工業結構變遷的分析，而對工業用地之 設置提出檢討與建議。本文主要應用歷年台閩地區人口普查、工商普查報 告及筆者蒐集有關臺北都會區工業用地之資料，以相對成長比較分析法、 區位商數、地方化係數、Spearman等級相關分析、複迴歸分析等研究方法 進行分析，得知臺灣地區產業結構已轉為以三級產業為重，而臺北都會區 產業相對於臺灣地區之重要性逐年增加，尤以三級產業最明顯，故臺北會 區未來發展重心應是三級產業，且應是商業、社會團體及個人服務業。再 者，為配合臺北都會區產業及工業發展趨勢，本文綜合臺北都會區目前之 基礎性工業，及適宜於十萬人以上都市發展之工業種類，再整合臺北都會 區內各工業區位分佈所考量因素，而歸納未來臺北都會區適宜發展之工業 種類，而提出臺北都會區未來工業發展及工業用地利用之建議。