I define the Taiwan issue as the tense relationship between mainland China and Taiwan since 1949. The tension used to arise from the belligerency between the Kuomintang and the Chinese Communist Party. In the past decade, Taiwan increasingly sought to define its own national identity and international status, but faced diplomatic and military pressures from mainland China, which has insisted that Taiwan is part of China. The relationship between mainland China and Taiwan has been one of the most important issues regarding the peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region. In order to explore the Taiwan issue, this research will examine the interactions among the United States, Taiwan, and mainland China in the realist perspective of international relations. The main research questions are: What determines the costs and benefits of the security decisions of the United States, Taiwan, and mainland China regarding the Taiwan issue? What decisions should the players make based on their costs and benefits? How do these decisions form various scenarios leading to different outcomes? How have the relations among the United States, Taiwan, and mainland China evolved since 1949? This thesis is organized as follows. First, an examination of the interactions among the three players---the United States, Taiwan and mainland China---in a game theoretical model explores the costs and benefits of their security decisions and the formation of various security scenarios in the Taiwan Strait. Second, the evolution of security in the Taiwan Strait is reviewed and analyzed by applying the game theoretical model to the history of the Taiwan issue. Third, based on the game theoretical model, I make some speculations and predictions on the future relations between mainland China and Taiwan. / Master of Arts

「台灣問題」關係到中共未來國家戰略發展的核心，並涉及民族尊嚴的維護。所以中共無論基於區域博弈、國家安全、利益、發展維護等戰略需求，「台灣問題」勢將為中共必須面對的重要議題。自1978年以來，中共領導人受到內外在安全戰略因素影響，其統一戰略思維與策略運用，不斷的進行調整，逐漸由武力解放轉變為和平統一。當前中共國家戰略雖以「國家發展」為優先，但發生對主權原則的挑戰，勢被迫將統一問題提前解決。中共迄今不願承諾放棄武力主因，即基於國家安全戰略考量，以確保對台政策的靈活性與主動性。 基於整體情勢，中共體認「談判會比透過戰爭獲益更多」的戰略思維。當前中共對台策略係採取「政經分離、先經後政」柔性作為。依國際情勢、綜合國力及軍事能量而言，整體優勢明顯傾斜於中共，故未來兩岸關係發展情況，勢將大部份取決中共的戰略走向。更值得重視的是，中共確實有武力犯台能力與決心。 中共當前對台的經貿策略，無論基於全球化需求，或是中共所佔有的戰略優勢，對於台灣而言，乃勢之所趨，與其採取「抗衡」策略，不如運用擁有的籌碼，積極與之建立依存關係，進而在未來無可避免的政治談判中，爭取國家最大的利益與安全保障。 / The Taiwan issue sits at the center of China’s national security. It involves both China’s national dignity and national interests. Therefore, no matter in terms of its development projects, regional arrangements, or national security strategies, everything related to China’s national security has to do with the Taiwan issue. This is the reason why we have to address the cross-Strait situation from the angle of China’s national security concerns. Since 1978, under the constraint of China’s economic and security conditions, its leaders have been adjusting constantly its strategy to unify Taiwan: from military liberation gradually moving towards peaceful co-optation. As a result, China can reserve more energy for its economic catch-up. But still, according to the findings of this study, once sovereignty being threatened or challenged, China will consider the use of force without any delay. And, this is exactly why China has always been reluctant to denounce the use of force against Taiwan. For the moment, however, China prefers the unification through peaceful means and this lead to a strategy of “separation of politics and economy, with economy gong first and politics being last.” But, gradually, as Taiwan becomes more dependent on China economically and loses its advantages to China militarily, according to the findings of the research, China would gain more confidence over unifying Taiwan. Such confidence, if backed up by its physical strength, would very likely lead to a military confrontation across the Taiwan Strait. Facing such circumstance, more challenges against China’s determination of defend its sovereignty would add to the likelihood of the above-mentioned scenario. Thus, according to the findings of the study, Taiwan’s best strategy might probably be avoiding “balancing/confrontation” for now and at the same time making be best use of our economic advantages and bargaining chips to build up the economic and social interdependence across the Strait, which shall be the most reliable guarantee of Taiwan’s national security.

Die Taiwan-Frage war ein Dauerproblem der internationalen Politik im Zeitalter des Kalten Krieges. Auch nach dem Ende des Ost-West-Konflikts ist die Taiwan-Frage immer noch ein gefährlicher Konfliktherd in Ostasien und das schwierigste Problem in den Beziehungen zwischen China und den USA. Die Taiwan-Frage ist deshalb ein ausgesprochen wichtiges Thema in der US-Strategie für Ostasien-Pazifik nach dem Ende des Ost-West-Konfliktes. Der Aufstieg Chinas wird die Taiwan-Frage in Zukunft unumgänglich wieder aufwerfen und könnte irgendwann einmal eine direkte Konfrontation zwischen China und den USA heraufbeschwören. In Hinblick darauf, dass das Modell des Dreiecks Washington-Taipeh-Beijing besonders gut für die strategische Analyse der Interaktion innerhalb diesen Beziehungsdreiecks ist, will die vorliegende Arbeit auf der systemischen Ebene das Modell des "Taiwan-Straßen-Dreiecks" auch anwenden, um die Taiwan-Frage aus der strategischen Perspektive zu untersuchen. Die vorliegende Untersuchung will auf den Zeitraum von 1990-2000. Dazu sind eine eingehende Darstellung und Analyse der strategischen Strukturen der Taiwan-Frage ebenso notwendig wie eine Auseinandersetzung mit theoretischen Ansätzen und deren Untersuchung in Hinblick auf die ostasiatisch-pazifische Strategie der Vereinigten Staaten. Durch theoretische Untersuchung und empirische Analyse soll diese Forschungsarbeit ein in der politischen Praxis operationalisierbares Modell der strategischen Interaktion in der Taiwan-Frage entwickeln, von dem aus die optimale strategische Option für Taiwan gewählt und somit Lösungsmöglichkeiten diskutiert werden können. / The Taiwan issue was a constant problem for international politics during the Cold War era and it has remained a dangerous source of conflict in East Asia ever since. It is the most complicated aspect of Sino-American relations. Therefore the Taiwan issue has been a decisive factor in US East Asian strategy. China s rise to power will inevitably raise the issue again in the future and this could one day lead to direct confrontation between China and the USA. So it follows that the term, strategic triangle, which was used to describe the relationship between Washington, Moscow and Beijing has now also been applied to the interconnections between Washington, Taipei and Beijing. Seeing that the above-mentioned triangular model is extremely useful for a strategic analysis of the interactions within this group, the study presented here attempts to use the model of the "Taiwan Strait Triangle" to examine the Taiwan issue in the changing international system from a strategic perspective. The study presented here concentrates on the time period between 1990 and 2000. Its fundamental prerequisites are a thorough presentation and analysis of the strategic structures pertinent to the Taiwan issue, as well as a discussion of the theories that have been considered and applied in US strategy for East Asia and the Pacific. Moreover, there is great need for further thorough examination of the developments in the Taiwan issue and the strategic configuration in the East Asian and Pacific region in terms of the fundamentally changed strategic circumstances brought about by the changes in the global system after the end of the East - West conflict.